CRUDE OIL (March) BULLISH ABOVE 3793 BEARISH BELOW 3775
GOLD (April) BULLISH ABOVE 11546 BEARISH BELOW 11510
SILVER (March) BULLISH ABOVE 21955 BEARISH BELOW 21876
COPPER (February) BULLISH ABOVE 314.6 BEARISH BELOW 313.6
LEAD (February) BULLISH ABOVE 120.20 BEARISH BELOW 119.70
NICKEL (February) BULLISH ABOVE 1087 BEARISH BELOW 1082
ZINC (February) BULLISH ABOVE 92.50 BEARISH BELOW 92.10
MCXARUN
9994500540
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
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MCXARUN
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long view (லாங் வீயு)
GOLD
LIKELY TO TEST 12000-12100 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 11810-875(APRIL)
SILVER
LIKELY TO TEST 22700-750 Max UPTO 23000 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 22425, ONLY CLOSE BELOW 21700 TEST 21400-21250 AGAIN(MAR)
CRUDE OIL
LIKELY TO TEST 3850-70-3900 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 3810, AND CLOSE ABOVE 3900-3935 RALLY TEST 4050-4100 ATLEAST(MAR)
COPPER
LIKELY TO TEST 317 UPTO 320 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE
ABOVE 312.5, WHILE CLOSE BELOW 302.5 TEST 297-293 ATLEAST(FEB)
LEAD
LIKELY TO TEST 130 UPTO 133 Max TO 140 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 123-125, WHILE CLOSE BELOW 116.5 TEST 113-111 ATLEAST
(FEB)
ZINC
LIKELY TO TEST 89-87 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 91.5, AND CLOSE BELOW 86.5 TEST 82/78 UPTO 75, ONLY CLOSE ABOVE 99-101/104 & 106 UPRALLY AGAIN TO TEST 111-115 ATLEAST(FEB)
NICKEL
LIKELY TO TEST 1000-995 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 1035-40 & CLOSE BELOW 995 TEST 950 ATLEAST, ONLY CLOSE ABOVE 1130 & 1220 UPRALLY AGAIN(FEB)
ALUMINUM
LIKELY TO TEST 117-20 UPTO 124 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 113.5, ONLY CLOSE BELOW 102 SOME DOWN SIDE AGAIN(FEB)
SPOT GOLD INTERNATIONAL LIKELY TO TEST $ 950-960 WITH ANY CLOSE ABOVE $937, AND CLOSE BELOW $ 884 SOME DOWN SIDE LIKELY
MCXARUN
9994500540
LIKELY TO TEST 12000-12100 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 11810-875(APRIL)
SILVER
LIKELY TO TEST 22700-750 Max UPTO 23000 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 22425, ONLY CLOSE BELOW 21700 TEST 21400-21250 AGAIN(MAR)
CRUDE OIL
LIKELY TO TEST 3850-70-3900 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 3810, AND CLOSE ABOVE 3900-3935 RALLY TEST 4050-4100 ATLEAST(MAR)
COPPER
LIKELY TO TEST 317 UPTO 320 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE
ABOVE 312.5, WHILE CLOSE BELOW 302.5 TEST 297-293 ATLEAST(FEB)
LEAD
LIKELY TO TEST 130 UPTO 133 Max TO 140 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 123-125, WHILE CLOSE BELOW 116.5 TEST 113-111 ATLEAST
(FEB)
ZINC
LIKELY TO TEST 89-87 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 91.5, AND CLOSE BELOW 86.5 TEST 82/78 UPTO 75, ONLY CLOSE ABOVE 99-101/104 & 106 UPRALLY AGAIN TO TEST 111-115 ATLEAST(FEB)
NICKEL
LIKELY TO TEST 1000-995 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 1035-40 & CLOSE BELOW 995 TEST 950 ATLEAST, ONLY CLOSE ABOVE 1130 & 1220 UPRALLY AGAIN(FEB)
ALUMINUM
LIKELY TO TEST 117-20 UPTO 124 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 113.5, ONLY CLOSE BELOW 102 SOME DOWN SIDE AGAIN(FEB)
SPOT GOLD INTERNATIONAL LIKELY TO TEST $ 950-960 WITH ANY CLOSE ABOVE $937, AND CLOSE BELOW $ 884 SOME DOWN SIDE LIKELY
MCXARUN
9994500540
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
Copper continues to shine bright. LME inventories have been continuously falling. Expectations that China will need more copper and aluminum to repair the damaged infrastructure (ahead of the Olympics games) has resulted in greater investment interest. Copper will remain firm and could reach record highs if global inventories continue to fall and the Chinese buy at higher levels. The only negative factor for copper is reduced demand and Chinese copper supplies resuming normal operations. Higher copper prices will prevent silver and other base metals from a fall.
Gold and silver are in a consolidation phase and should break out from the current wider trading range soon. The technical picture is still bullish; however failure to break recent highs in the near term will result in a correction. A continuous rise in platinum prices and South African power woes will prevent gold from a collapse in the short term. At higher levels physical demand is virtually non existent.
SILVER -- MARCH FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT $1752.0
Silver has to break $1752 and $1770 else it will trade in $1692-$1760 wider range. Consolidated fall below $1692 will result in $1652.
COPPER -- MARCH FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $357.0
$368-$382 is the technical congestion zone. Failure to break $382 this month will result in fall to $336 and below.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Gold and silver are in a consolidation phase and should break out from the current wider trading range soon. The technical picture is still bullish; however failure to break recent highs in the near term will result in a correction. A continuous rise in platinum prices and South African power woes will prevent gold from a collapse in the short term. At higher levels physical demand is virtually non existent.
SILVER -- MARCH FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT $1752.0
Silver has to break $1752 and $1770 else it will trade in $1692-$1760 wider range. Consolidated fall below $1692 will result in $1652.
COPPER -- MARCH FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $357.0
$368-$382 is the technical congestion zone. Failure to break $382 this month will result in fall to $336 and below.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Monday, February 18, 2008
Energy
Crude oil on Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) moved in a tight range of Rs four but closed with modest gains Saturday extending the 0.4 per cent rise noted a day earlier. MCX crude moved in a narrow range amid lack of cues from international exchange.
· On MCX, crude oil March contract closed trading at Rs 3,765 per barrel after a gain of Rs 10 and traded in a range of Rs 3,767 to Rs 3,763 per barrel.
· Over the week, March contract noted an increase of Rs 163 or 4.5 per cent. Feb contract expired at Rs 3,775 per barrel on Friday. MCX crude front month contract noted a 3.2 per cent rally in the previous week.
· MCX crude edged up today and noted a 4.5 per cent rise over the week. Crude futures on MCX surged this week tracking the upturn movement on international exchange. Nymex crude jumped 4.1 per cent this week extending the 3.2 per cent rally noted a week earlier.
· While Nymex crude edged up this week on supply concerns, concerns about the demand continued to weigh on market sentiments. U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Agency and Opec all in their monthly oil report lowered demand growth forecast for the current year on concerns about the impact of slowdown on oil demand.
· Opec kept output steady at its Feb 1 meet and will now on March 5 to take stock of the market condition. Comments by Opec members have indicated that the oil cartel may consider cutting output taking into consideration rising oil and fuel stockpiles effect of weakening global economy on oil demand.
· While threat of Venezuela's to cut oil sales has been downplayed by experts it continued to underpin prices this week. Market players may continue to keep an eye on the matter in coming days. Crude futures on Nymex may witness volatile trade in the coming week as traders will square positions ahead of March contract expiration on Feb 20.
· On the economic front, market players will look ahead for reports on the National Association of Homebuilders Housing Market Index, the consumer price index, new home construction and leading indicators due in the coming weak for further indication about the health of the U.S. economy. Also in focus will be FOMC minutes, which will be released on Wednesday.
MCX Crude Oil March (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Crude Oil March: Buy at 3720-25 for the target of 3790 and 3830 with stop loss at 3680
MCX Natural gas Feb (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
Natural gas Feb: Buy at 340 for the target of 349 and 356 with stop loss at 337
MCXARUN
9994500540
· On MCX, crude oil March contract closed trading at Rs 3,765 per barrel after a gain of Rs 10 and traded in a range of Rs 3,767 to Rs 3,763 per barrel.
· Over the week, March contract noted an increase of Rs 163 or 4.5 per cent. Feb contract expired at Rs 3,775 per barrel on Friday. MCX crude front month contract noted a 3.2 per cent rally in the previous week.
· MCX crude edged up today and noted a 4.5 per cent rise over the week. Crude futures on MCX surged this week tracking the upturn movement on international exchange. Nymex crude jumped 4.1 per cent this week extending the 3.2 per cent rally noted a week earlier.
· While Nymex crude edged up this week on supply concerns, concerns about the demand continued to weigh on market sentiments. U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Agency and Opec all in their monthly oil report lowered demand growth forecast for the current year on concerns about the impact of slowdown on oil demand.
· Opec kept output steady at its Feb 1 meet and will now on March 5 to take stock of the market condition. Comments by Opec members have indicated that the oil cartel may consider cutting output taking into consideration rising oil and fuel stockpiles effect of weakening global economy on oil demand.
· While threat of Venezuela's to cut oil sales has been downplayed by experts it continued to underpin prices this week. Market players may continue to keep an eye on the matter in coming days. Crude futures on Nymex may witness volatile trade in the coming week as traders will square positions ahead of March contract expiration on Feb 20.
· On the economic front, market players will look ahead for reports on the National Association of Homebuilders Housing Market Index, the consumer price index, new home construction and leading indicators due in the coming weak for further indication about the health of the U.S. economy. Also in focus will be FOMC minutes, which will be released on Wednesday.
MCX Crude Oil March (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Crude Oil March: Buy at 3720-25 for the target of 3790 and 3830 with stop loss at 3680
MCX Natural gas Feb (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
Natural gas Feb: Buy at 340 for the target of 349 and 356 with stop loss at 337
MCXARUN
9994500540
BULLION
Gold traded weak on Friday and followed trend on Saturday; market remains weak on international trend, as dollar has shown some recovery.
· MCX Gold April traded in range of Rs. 11490-11680 and Silver March trade in range of Rs. 21735-22290 per kg following international spot gold and silver. International spot gold settled at $902.20 per Toz and silver settled at $17.04 per Toz with loss.
· Gold fell, capping the first weekly loss in four, on speculation a recession will slow demand for the precious metal and other commodities.
· U.S. stocks declined as reports showed confidence among U.S. consumers fell to a 16-year low and manufacturing in New York contracted this month for the first time in almost three years. Gold demand dropped 17 percent in the fourth quarter of 2007 as higher prices deterred purchases by jewelers and retail investors. Gold reached a record $942.20 on Jan. 30.
· Global demand dropped to 843 metric tons from 1,013.4 tons in the last three months of 2007, the London-based World Gold Council said Feb. 13 in its quarterly report. Buyers from India, the world's biggest user, reduced purchases by 64 percent to 83.9 tons. Jewelry use dropped 17 percent. About 68 percent of gold demand last year came from jewelers.
· The dollar has fallen to week-lows against the euro Friday as a rate cut at the Federal Reserve's March meeting is priced into the market. Benchmark crude oil futures continued on from Thursday's breakout on concerns over growing tension betweenVenezuela and theUS.
· Markets are once again tipping anotherUS rate cut in March, which should give gold some added momentum and may be enough to break it out of its recent consolidation pattern.
Indian Bullion Spot Market
Precious metals was a tad up in spot markets with support from a weak dollar, high crude oil prices and expectations of yet another interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
· In Mumbai markets, gold (995) rose by Rs 15 to finish at Rs 11,700gm and gold (.999) by Rs 20 to Rs 11,755/10g respectively. Arrivals in gold were at 100 kilos. Silver (.999) shot up by Rs 25 to close at Rs 21,645/kg. Arrivals in silver were at 150 kilos.
· Chennai gold (995) and gold (.999) was up by Rs 10 to finish at Rs 11,800/10gm and Rs 11,850/10gm respectively whereas Silver (.999) closed up by Rs 250 at Rs 21,400/kg.
· Jaipur gold standard rose by Rs 100 to close at Rs.11,800/10gm whereas Silver (.999) finished steady at Rs 21,800/kg.
· Ahmedabad gold (995) increased by Rs 35 to end at Rs 11,685/10gm and gold (.999) decreased by Rs 55 to end at Rs 11,735/10gm respectively whereas Silver (.999) shot up by Rs 200 to close at Rs 22,100/kg.
· In Delhi bullion markets, gold (995) closed unchanged at Rs.11,750/10gm and gold (.999) at Rs 11,810/10gm respectively whereas Silver (.999) declined by Rs 300 to end at Rs.21,400/kg.
MCX Gold Apr (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Gold April: Buy at 11510-520 for the target of 11640 and 11690 with stop loss at 11485
MCX Silver Mar (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Silver March: Buy at 21900 for the target of 22100 and 22350 with stop loss at 21805
MCXARUN
9994500540
· MCX Gold April traded in range of Rs. 11490-11680 and Silver March trade in range of Rs. 21735-22290 per kg following international spot gold and silver. International spot gold settled at $902.20 per Toz and silver settled at $17.04 per Toz with loss.
· Gold fell, capping the first weekly loss in four, on speculation a recession will slow demand for the precious metal and other commodities.
· U.S. stocks declined as reports showed confidence among U.S. consumers fell to a 16-year low and manufacturing in New York contracted this month for the first time in almost three years. Gold demand dropped 17 percent in the fourth quarter of 2007 as higher prices deterred purchases by jewelers and retail investors. Gold reached a record $942.20 on Jan. 30.
· Global demand dropped to 843 metric tons from 1,013.4 tons in the last three months of 2007, the London-based World Gold Council said Feb. 13 in its quarterly report. Buyers from India, the world's biggest user, reduced purchases by 64 percent to 83.9 tons. Jewelry use dropped 17 percent. About 68 percent of gold demand last year came from jewelers.
· The dollar has fallen to week-lows against the euro Friday as a rate cut at the Federal Reserve's March meeting is priced into the market. Benchmark crude oil futures continued on from Thursday's breakout on concerns over growing tension betweenVenezuela and theUS.
· Markets are once again tipping anotherUS rate cut in March, which should give gold some added momentum and may be enough to break it out of its recent consolidation pattern.
Indian Bullion Spot Market
Precious metals was a tad up in spot markets with support from a weak dollar, high crude oil prices and expectations of yet another interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
· In Mumbai markets, gold (995) rose by Rs 15 to finish at Rs 11,700gm and gold (.999) by Rs 20 to Rs 11,755/10g respectively. Arrivals in gold were at 100 kilos. Silver (.999) shot up by Rs 25 to close at Rs 21,645/kg. Arrivals in silver were at 150 kilos.
· Chennai gold (995) and gold (.999) was up by Rs 10 to finish at Rs 11,800/10gm and Rs 11,850/10gm respectively whereas Silver (.999) closed up by Rs 250 at Rs 21,400/kg.
· Jaipur gold standard rose by Rs 100 to close at Rs.11,800/10gm whereas Silver (.999) finished steady at Rs 21,800/kg.
· Ahmedabad gold (995) increased by Rs 35 to end at Rs 11,685/10gm and gold (.999) decreased by Rs 55 to end at Rs 11,735/10gm respectively whereas Silver (.999) shot up by Rs 200 to close at Rs 22,100/kg.
· In Delhi bullion markets, gold (995) closed unchanged at Rs.11,750/10gm and gold (.999) at Rs 11,810/10gm respectively whereas Silver (.999) declined by Rs 300 to end at Rs.21,400/kg.
MCX Gold Apr (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Gold April: Buy at 11510-520 for the target of 11640 and 11690 with stop loss at 11485
MCX Silver Mar (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Silver March: Buy at 21900 for the target of 22100 and 22350 with stop loss at 21805
MCXARUN
9994500540
Technicals – MCX (Intra day calls)
CRUDE OIL (March) BULLISH ABOVE 3773 BEARISH BELOW 3755
GOLD (April) BULLISH ABOVE 11566 BEARISH BELOW 11530
SILVER (March) BULLISH ABOVE 21957 BEARISH BELOW 21868
COPPER (February) BULLISH ABOVE 307.60 BEARISH BELOW 306.80
LEAD (February) BULLISH ABOVE 118.20 BEARISH BELOW 117.80
NICKEL (February) BULLISH ABOVE 1087 BEARISH BELOW 1082
ZINC (February) BULLISH ABOVE 92.50 BEARISH BELOW 92.10
MCXARUN
9994500540
GOLD (April) BULLISH ABOVE 11566 BEARISH BELOW 11530
SILVER (March) BULLISH ABOVE 21957 BEARISH BELOW 21868
COPPER (February) BULLISH ABOVE 307.60 BEARISH BELOW 306.80
LEAD (February) BULLISH ABOVE 118.20 BEARISH BELOW 117.80
NICKEL (February) BULLISH ABOVE 1087 BEARISH BELOW 1082
ZINC (February) BULLISH ABOVE 92.50 BEARISH BELOW 92.10
MCXARUN
9994500540
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