April gold closed lower on Friday as it extended this week's decline. Today's low-range close sets the stage for a steady to
lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-
term. If March extends this week's decline, last week's low crossing at 888.40 is the next downside target. Closes above
Monday's high crossing at 931.00 are needed to renew the rally off last week's low. First resistance is Monday's high crossing
at 931.00 then January's high crossing at 942.20. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 899.50. Second support is last
week's low crossing at 888.40.
March silver closed lower on Friday and the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday.
Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near.
Closes below last week's low crossing at 16.230 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends
this week's rally, monthly resistance crossing at 17.870 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at
17.650 then monthly resistance crossing at 17.870. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 17.003 then the 20-
day moving average crossing at 16.766.
March copper posted an inside day with a higher close on Friday as it consolidated some of Thursday's decline but remains
below the 75% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at 352.60. The mid-range close sets the stage for a
steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling that a short-term top
might be in or is near. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 344.65 would confirm that a short-term top has
been posted. If March extends this month's rally, the 87% retracement level crossing at 363.80 is the next upside target. First
resistance is Monday's high crossing at 359.90. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level crossing at 363.80. First
support is Thursday's low crossing at 345.60. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 344.65.
March crude oil closed higher on Friday as it extends this week's rally. Profit taking tempered some of today's gains and the
mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, January's high crossing at
99.77 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 90.91 would confirm that a short-term top
has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 96.67. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 99.77. First
support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 91.64. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 90.91.
March Henry natural gas closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's rally but not before testing November's
high crossing at 8.830. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI
are overbought and have turned neutral hinting that a double top with November's high might be forming. If March extends this
month's rally, July's high crossing at 8.990 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's gap crossing at 8.330 would
confirm that a double top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 8.847 then July's high crossing at 8.990.
First support is Monday's gap crossing at 8.330. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 8.299.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Monday, February 18, 2008
Thursday, February 14, 2008
bullion outlook
Gold prices ended slightly lower after volatile trade yesterday.
The dollar edged higher supported by better-than-expected Retail Sales data from the US. According to the release by US Commerce Department, retail sales rose 0.3 % in January.
Reported decline in gold imports from India, the top consuming country influenced the price movement in bullion.
According to India's Bombay Bullion Association gold imports in January slumped to five tons from 62 tons a year earlier, as record high prices affected the demand for the yellow metal.
The Group of Seven industrial nations had approved on Saturday the sale of gold by the International Monetary Fund from April. The IMF is the third largest holder of gold reserves, after the Federal Reserve and Germany's Bundesbank.
International spot gold traded in the range $910.00 - $896.10 and last quoted at $ 904.70 ($905.70).
Oil prices settled above $93 a barrel as traders weighed the threat by Venezuela to halt oil supply to the US and a less-than-expected rise in US crude inventories, against the EIA’s downward revision of world oil demand estimate.
Venezuela's state oil company announced on Tuesday that it has stopped selling crude to Exxon Mobil Corp. and suspended commercial relations with the US-based oil giant. The President of Venezuela, Hugo Chavez had recently threatened to entirely cut supply to the United States.
The weekly inventory report by US Energy Department’s Energy Information Administration showed Crude oil inventories increased by 1.1 million barrels to 301.1 million barrels in the week ended Feb 8. However, an increase of about 2.5 million barrels had been widely expected.
In a monthly report released on Tuesday, the EIA said the world oil market is poised to ease over the next two years with production increases offsetting moderate growth in oil demand.
Also the EIA put forward a downward revision of the oil demand estimate, citing increased risks of a global economic slowdown in 2008. World oil consumption is expected to grow by 1.4 million barrels a day in 2008, about 200,000 barrels lower than last month's estimate.
Crude oil March in NYMEX traded in the range $91.90 - $93.89 and closed at $93.34 ($92.78).
Medium-term Outlook (Spot Gold)
Gold prices are expected to trade within the range $837 - $770. Breaking of either level may decide the direction. $801 may act as the major resistance followed by $824, $836, $850, $863, 872, $887, $900, $912, $915.40, $926. Supports are $754 and $744.
Last day DGCX Gold April traded in the range $914.00 - $900.00 and last quoted at $910.50 ($911.30).
DGCX Gold April
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (Apr) - Bullish above $ 911.00; bearish below $ 907.00
MCXARUN
9994500540
The dollar edged higher supported by better-than-expected Retail Sales data from the US. According to the release by US Commerce Department, retail sales rose 0.3 % in January.
Reported decline in gold imports from India, the top consuming country influenced the price movement in bullion.
According to India's Bombay Bullion Association gold imports in January slumped to five tons from 62 tons a year earlier, as record high prices affected the demand for the yellow metal.
The Group of Seven industrial nations had approved on Saturday the sale of gold by the International Monetary Fund from April. The IMF is the third largest holder of gold reserves, after the Federal Reserve and Germany's Bundesbank.
International spot gold traded in the range $910.00 - $896.10 and last quoted at $ 904.70 ($905.70).
Oil prices settled above $93 a barrel as traders weighed the threat by Venezuela to halt oil supply to the US and a less-than-expected rise in US crude inventories, against the EIA’s downward revision of world oil demand estimate.
Venezuela's state oil company announced on Tuesday that it has stopped selling crude to Exxon Mobil Corp. and suspended commercial relations with the US-based oil giant. The President of Venezuela, Hugo Chavez had recently threatened to entirely cut supply to the United States.
The weekly inventory report by US Energy Department’s Energy Information Administration showed Crude oil inventories increased by 1.1 million barrels to 301.1 million barrels in the week ended Feb 8. However, an increase of about 2.5 million barrels had been widely expected.
In a monthly report released on Tuesday, the EIA said the world oil market is poised to ease over the next two years with production increases offsetting moderate growth in oil demand.
Also the EIA put forward a downward revision of the oil demand estimate, citing increased risks of a global economic slowdown in 2008. World oil consumption is expected to grow by 1.4 million barrels a day in 2008, about 200,000 barrels lower than last month's estimate.
Crude oil March in NYMEX traded in the range $91.90 - $93.89 and closed at $93.34 ($92.78).
Medium-term Outlook (Spot Gold)
Gold prices are expected to trade within the range $837 - $770. Breaking of either level may decide the direction. $801 may act as the major resistance followed by $824, $836, $850, $863, 872, $887, $900, $912, $915.40, $926. Supports are $754 and $744.
Last day DGCX Gold April traded in the range $914.00 - $900.00 and last quoted at $910.50 ($911.30).
DGCX Gold April
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (Apr) - Bullish above $ 911.00; bearish below $ 907.00
MCXARUN
9994500540
Technicals – MCX (Intra day calls)
CRUDE OIL (March) BULLISH ABOVE 3693 BEARISH BELOW 3677
GOLD (April) BULLISH ABOVE 11587 BEARISH BELOW 11549
SILVER (March) BULLISH ABOVE 22060 BEARISH BELOW 21968
COPPER (February) BULLISH ABOVE 307.40 BEARISH BELOW 306.60
LEAD (February) BULLISH ABOVE 119.80 BEARISH BELOW 119.40
NICKEL (February) BULLISH ABOVE 1103 BEARISH BELOW 1097
ZINC (February) BULLISH ABOVE 95.60 BEARISH BELOW 95.20
MCXARUN
9994500540
GOLD (April) BULLISH ABOVE 11587 BEARISH BELOW 11549
SILVER (March) BULLISH ABOVE 22060 BEARISH BELOW 21968
COPPER (February) BULLISH ABOVE 307.40 BEARISH BELOW 306.60
LEAD (February) BULLISH ABOVE 119.80 BEARISH BELOW 119.40
NICKEL (February) BULLISH ABOVE 1103 BEARISH BELOW 1097
ZINC (February) BULLISH ABOVE 95.60 BEARISH BELOW 95.20
MCXARUN
9994500540
Outlook : Bullion, Base Metals & Energy
Gold prices ended slightly lower after volatile trade yesterday.
The dollar edged higher supported by better-than-expected Retail Sales data from the US. According to the release by US Commerce Department, retail sales rose 0.3 % in January.
Reported decline in gold imports from India, the top consuming country influenced the price movement in bullion.
According to India's Bombay Bullion Association gold imports in January slumped to five tons from 62 tons a year earlier, as record high prices affected the demand for the yellow metal.
The Group of Seven industrial nations had approved on Saturday the sale of gold by the International Monetary Fund from April. The IMF is the third largest holder of gold reserves, after the Federal Reserve and Germany's Bundesbank.
International spot gold traded in the range $910.00 - $896.10 and last quoted at $ 904.70 ($905.70).
Oil prices settled above $93 a barrel as traders weighed the threat by Venezuela to halt oil supply to the US and a less-than-expected rise in US crude inventories, against the EIA’s downward revision of world oil demand estimate.
Venezuela's state oil company announced on Tuesday that it has stopped selling crude to Exxon Mobil Corp. and suspended commercial relations with the US-based oil giant. The President of Venezuela, Hugo Chavez had recently threatened to entirely cut supply to the United States.
The weekly inventory report by US Energy Department’s Energy Information Administration showed Crude oil inventories increased by 1.1 million barrels to 301.1 million barrels in the week ended Feb 8. However, an increase of about 2.5 million barrels had been widely expected.
In a monthly report released on Tuesday, the EIA said the world oil market is poised to ease over the next two years with production increases offsetting moderate growth in oil demand.
Also the EIA put forward a downward revision of the oil demand estimate, citing increased risks of a global economic slowdown in 2008. World oil consumption is expected to grow by 1.4 million barrels a day in 2008, about 200,000 barrels lower than last month's estimate.
Crude oil March in NYMEX traded in the range $91.90 - $93.89 and closed at $93.34 ($92.78).
Medium-term Outlook (Spot Gold)
Gold prices are expected to trade within the range $837 - $770. Breaking of either level may decide the direction. $801 may act as the major resistance followed by $824, $836, $850, $863, 872, $887, $900, $912, $915.40, $926. Supports are $754 and $744.
Last day, MCX gold April opened at 11562, traded in the range of 11624 – 11475 and closed at 11585.
Copper February in MCX opened at 308.50, traded in the range 309.70 – 303.00 and closed at 307.65.
MCXARUN
9994500540
The dollar edged higher supported by better-than-expected Retail Sales data from the US. According to the release by US Commerce Department, retail sales rose 0.3 % in January.
Reported decline in gold imports from India, the top consuming country influenced the price movement in bullion.
According to India's Bombay Bullion Association gold imports in January slumped to five tons from 62 tons a year earlier, as record high prices affected the demand for the yellow metal.
The Group of Seven industrial nations had approved on Saturday the sale of gold by the International Monetary Fund from April. The IMF is the third largest holder of gold reserves, after the Federal Reserve and Germany's Bundesbank.
International spot gold traded in the range $910.00 - $896.10 and last quoted at $ 904.70 ($905.70).
Oil prices settled above $93 a barrel as traders weighed the threat by Venezuela to halt oil supply to the US and a less-than-expected rise in US crude inventories, against the EIA’s downward revision of world oil demand estimate.
Venezuela's state oil company announced on Tuesday that it has stopped selling crude to Exxon Mobil Corp. and suspended commercial relations with the US-based oil giant. The President of Venezuela, Hugo Chavez had recently threatened to entirely cut supply to the United States.
The weekly inventory report by US Energy Department’s Energy Information Administration showed Crude oil inventories increased by 1.1 million barrels to 301.1 million barrels in the week ended Feb 8. However, an increase of about 2.5 million barrels had been widely expected.
In a monthly report released on Tuesday, the EIA said the world oil market is poised to ease over the next two years with production increases offsetting moderate growth in oil demand.
Also the EIA put forward a downward revision of the oil demand estimate, citing increased risks of a global economic slowdown in 2008. World oil consumption is expected to grow by 1.4 million barrels a day in 2008, about 200,000 barrels lower than last month's estimate.
Crude oil March in NYMEX traded in the range $91.90 - $93.89 and closed at $93.34 ($92.78).
Medium-term Outlook (Spot Gold)
Gold prices are expected to trade within the range $837 - $770. Breaking of either level may decide the direction. $801 may act as the major resistance followed by $824, $836, $850, $863, 872, $887, $900, $912, $915.40, $926. Supports are $754 and $744.
Last day, MCX gold April opened at 11562, traded in the range of 11624 – 11475 and closed at 11585.
Copper February in MCX opened at 308.50, traded in the range 309.70 – 303.00 and closed at 307.65.
MCXARUN
9994500540
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
Better than expected US January retail sales is positive news for base metals bulls. If the US is able to fend off a recession (which has already been discounted in current base metals prices), all the base metals will out perform precious metals. Crude oil will remain firm if the US avoids recession. However it will not be one way traffic in base metals as investors have memories of last year’s fall. China will remain the key factor for base metals. Once all the snow gets melted and Chinese factories resume normal operations base metals will form a direction as by that time one will be able to estimate the incremental base metals demand caused by heavy snowfall. Chinese factories will also be preparing for the Olympics games in August.
Crude oil prices are floating over $85 a barrel so far in 2008, that too on the time when there is no peak summer demand and there are no hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico. IEA has reduced its 2008 crude oil global demand forecast to 1.67 million barrels a day. Crude oil demand from countries like India and other nations will continue to rise as prices are subsidized below $70 a barrel. If crude oil prices are able to hold $85 till April, it can rise to $117 and more in the summer. However I’m not a crude oil bull and still expect crude oil to fall to $78 this summer when there is more evidence of reduced global demand.
Gold and silver will be volatile. Silver will continue to outperform gold. There is mild physical demand at lower levels. Spot silver has to break $18.00 by next week for gains. Technically gold is in neutral zone.
GOLD -- APRIL FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT:$920.30
Gold has to hold $896.80 to prevent a fall to $888 and $878.60. On the higher side a break of $916.10 will result in $924 and $932.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $90.20
Crude oil has to hold $89.56 to be in bullish zone or break $95 for direction.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Crude oil prices are floating over $85 a barrel so far in 2008, that too on the time when there is no peak summer demand and there are no hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico. IEA has reduced its 2008 crude oil global demand forecast to 1.67 million barrels a day. Crude oil demand from countries like India and other nations will continue to rise as prices are subsidized below $70 a barrel. If crude oil prices are able to hold $85 till April, it can rise to $117 and more in the summer. However I’m not a crude oil bull and still expect crude oil to fall to $78 this summer when there is more evidence of reduced global demand.
Gold and silver will be volatile. Silver will continue to outperform gold. There is mild physical demand at lower levels. Spot silver has to break $18.00 by next week for gains. Technically gold is in neutral zone.
GOLD -- APRIL FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT:$920.30
Gold has to hold $896.80 to prevent a fall to $888 and $878.60. On the higher side a break of $916.10 will result in $924 and $932.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $90.20
Crude oil has to hold $89.56 to be in bullish zone or break $95 for direction.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
Technicals – MCX (Intra day calls)
CRUDE OIL (February) BULLISH ABOVE 3711 BEARISH BELOW 3697
GOLD (April) BULLISH ABOVE 11623 BEARISH BELOW 11585
SILVER (March) BULLISH ABOVE 22149 BEARISH BELOW 22065
COPPER (February) BULLISH ABOVE 311.05 BEARISH BELOW 310.25
LEAD (February) BULLISH ABOVE 121.45 BEARISH BELOW 121.00
NICKEL (February) BULLISH ABOVE 1112 BEARISH BELOW 1107
ZINC (February) BULLISH ABOVE 98.30 BEARISH BELOW 97.80
MCXARUN
9994500540
GOLD (April) BULLISH ABOVE 11623 BEARISH BELOW 11585
SILVER (March) BULLISH ABOVE 22149 BEARISH BELOW 22065
COPPER (February) BULLISH ABOVE 311.05 BEARISH BELOW 310.25
LEAD (February) BULLISH ABOVE 121.45 BEARISH BELOW 121.00
NICKEL (February) BULLISH ABOVE 1112 BEARISH BELOW 1107
ZINC (February) BULLISH ABOVE 98.30 BEARISH BELOW 97.80
MCXARUN
9994500540
for safe trade follow this
GOLD
for the day sell only below 11550 S/L 11570 and T/p 11515-490 upto 11450 OR sell ard 11735-45 S/L 11750 and T/p 11675-650, only sustain below 11540/11435/11375 & 11300 bearish rally test 11100-11050 atleast (any time close above 11875 bullish while close below 11300/10950-900/10500/10050/9850/9575 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
for the day sell only below 21850 S/L 21910 and T/p 21750-675-625 atleast upto 21500 OR sell ard 22340-375 S/L 22400 and T/p 22250/22150 (any time close below 21475/20950/20300/19725/ 19375/19000/18625/18250/18100/17750/ 17050/16450 bearish rally while close above 22450/23150 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
EIA Crude oil inventory schedule to release today. book profit on buy recm yesterday, for the day sell only below 3645 S/L 3665 and T/p 3620-3600/3565 OR buy only abv 3725-30 S/L 3705 and T/p 3750-55/75/3800-20 (now crude need to close above 3755/3840/3910-35 for bullish while close below 3600/3475/ 3380/3290-60 bearish for medium term)
for the day sell only below 305.5 S/L 307 and T/p 303.5/ 301.5/300 upto 297 OR buy only abv 312.5 S/L 311 and T/p 314-15/317 (upside strong rally only on close above 312.5/321.5/327/331.5/348 while close below 286.5/278/270/265/250/235 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
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