Tuesday, February 12, 2008

Technicals – MCX (Intra day calls)

CRUDE OIL (February) BULLISH ABOVE 3746 BEARISH BELOW 3732

GOLD (April) BULLISH ABOVE 11792 BEARISH BELOW 11754

SILVER (March) BULLISH ABOVE 22341 BEARISH BELOW 22257

COPPER (February) BULLISH ABOVE 310.65 BEARISH BELOW 309.85

LEAD (February) BULLISH ABOVE 120.95 BEARISH BELOW 120.55

NICKEL (February) BULLISH ABOVE 1114.5 BEARISH BELOW 1109.5

ZINC (February) BULLISH ABOVE 98.10 BEARISH BELOW 97.70

MCXARUN
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bullion chart

this is MCX gold intraday chart
click to view full size



this is MCX silver intraday chart
click to view full size




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outlook

April gold closed higher on Monday as it extended last Friday's rally above the 10-day moving average crossing at 916.20. The
high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling
that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, January's high crossing at 942.20 is
the next upside target. Closes below last Tuesday's low crossing at 888.40 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
First resistance is today's high crossing at 931.00 then January's high crossing at 942.20. First support is the 10-day moving
average crossing at 916.20. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 909.40.

March silver closed higher on Monday and above the previous reaction high crossing at 17.345 thereby renewing this winter's
rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, monthly resistance crossing
at 17.870 is the next upside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 17.595 then monthly resistance crossing at
17.870. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 16.851 then the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.550.

March copper closed higher for the fourth day in a row on Monday as it extended last Friday's rally above the 75% retracement
level of the October-December decline crossing at 352.60. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday.
Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If
March extends today's rally, the 87% retracement level crossing at 363.80 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day
moving average crossing at 334.63 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high
crossing at 359.90. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level crossing at 363.80. First support is today's low crossing at
351.95. Second support is the 62% retracement level crossing at 340.77.

March crude oil closed sharply higher on Monday and closed above the previous reaction high crossing at 92.71. Today's high-
range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends today's rally, the reaction high crossing at 96.92 is the next
upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 90.33 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the
market. First resistance is today's high crossing at 94.92. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 96.92. First support
is the 20-day moving average crossing at 90.33. Second support is last week's low crossing at 86.24.

March Henry natural gas gapped up and closed sharply higher on Monday as cold weather continues to descend across large
portions of the U.S. triggering increased heating demand. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on
Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March
extends this week's rally, November's high crossing at 8.830 is the next upside target. Closes below today's gap crossing at
8.330 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is today's high crossing at 8.627 then
November's high crossing at 8.830. First support is today's gap crossing at 8.330. Second support is the 10-day moving
average crossing at 8.057.

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GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS

There are a very few days when silver outperforms gold, yesterday was one of them. Silver, if it is able to hold on to current prices, should rise even faster than gold. We all know that silver rises as well as falls faster than gold. There are short positions at lower levels which are yet to be squared off. Some of the short traders have yet to square off in anticipation that comex march futures will close lower this month. However in the intermediate time if silver continues to rise, margin pressures will create short covering.

Gold and other precious metals will remain firm on lack of new sources of alternate investments (other than equities) and continued power woes in South Africa. Investment demand in precious metals will rise unless there is a stabilization factor in equities. Precious metals will remain delinked from the US dollar. However volatility will be high in precious metals as traders book profit at higher levels and new investors invest at lower levels.

SILVER -- MARCH FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT $1710.0

$1752 price target achieved. For the day if silver holds $1714 it will target $1790 and $1812. Silver has to fall below $1714 for $1688 and below.

COPPER -- MARCH FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $345.0

Copper has to hold $345.50 to target $364.80 and $381.50. For the week as long as copper holds $336 downside will be limited.

MCXARUN
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Monday, February 11, 2008

copper trend indicater

Copper:

Copper trade on ACCESS is showing weaker prices in recent activity reversing the firmer tone seen during the prior session. Trend indicators are indicating a bullish market. However the overall strength of the trend, as indicated by the ADX, is weak and should be watched as a result. Momentum readings are also in bullish territory.

TREND INDICATORS:

Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is falling, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. However, the weak ADX indicates that the current trend is deteriorating and may possibly reverse. Look for choppiness ahead.

MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory.

RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 55.11). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 55.11 the market is somewhat overbought. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of weakness from this indicator before getting too bearish here.

VOLATILITY INDICATORS:

Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Despite this overbought condition the market may become more overbought before turning lower. As a result, the market will look for additional weakening in prices before turning bearish on this indicator.

RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:

3.3785 - Highest High in last 50-Days
3.3716 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
3.3641 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
3.3475 - Highest High in last 10-Days
3.3160 - High
3.3008 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
3.2965 - Last Price
3.2862 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
3.2760 - Low
3.2725 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
3.2586 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
3.2327 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
3.1591 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
3.1439 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
3.1165 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
3.0883 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
2.8530 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days

MCXARUN
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energy trend indicater

rude Oil:

Front month crude oil is weaker in ACCESS trade this morning extending the prior sessions weaker close. Trend indicators are indicating a bearish market and the overall strength of the trend is strong, as indicated by the ADX. Momentum readings are also in bearish territory. Also, the market just put in a 50-Day new low here, indicating further weakness. More lows are likely here.

TREND INDICATORS:

Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session indicating further weakness. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bearish bias.

Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session indicating further weakness. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bearish bias.

Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session indicating further weakness. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bearish bias.

ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is rising, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is down. As the ADX is rising this indicates that the current trend is strong and should remain intact. Look for the current trend to continue.

MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bearish territory. Also, the market just put in a 50-Day new low here, indicating further weakness. More lows are likely here.

RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 37.82). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 37.82 the market is somewhat oversold, but given the 50-Day new low here, greater oversold levels are likely.

VOLATILITY INDICATORS:

Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating oversold prices. Volatility also appears to be decreasing, as evidenced by a smaller distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions. Despite this oversold condition the market may become more oversold before turning higher. As a result, the market will look for additional strength in prices before turning bullish on this indicator.

RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:

100.09 - Highest High in last 50-Days
94.48 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
92.71 - Highest High in last 10-Days
92.44 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
91.83 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
91.68 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
90.06 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
89.89 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
88.36 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
87.51 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
87.13 - High
86.99 - Last Price
86.81 - Low
86.66 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
86.31 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
85.42 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
80.14 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average

Natural Gas:

Natural Gas contracts are higher this morning extending the prior sessions gains. Trend indicators are indicating a bullish market. However the overall strength of the trend, as indicated by the ADX, is weak and should be watched as a result.

TREND INDICATORS:

Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is falling, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. However, the weak ADX indicates that the current trend is deteriorating and may possibly reverse. Look for choppiness ahead.

MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bearish territory. However, the recent upturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term rally over the next few days.

RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 56.61). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 56.61 the market is somewhat overbought. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of weakness from this indicator before getting too bearish here.

VOLATILITY INDICATORS:

Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Despite this overbought condition the market may become more overbought before turning lower. As a result, the market will look for additional weakening in prices before turning bearish on this indicator.

RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:

8.480 - Highest High in last 50-Days
8.340 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
8.160 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
8.130 - Highest High in last 10-Days
8.070 - High
8.070 - Last Price
8.010 - Low
8.002 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
7.986 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
7.970 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
7.800 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
7.625 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
7.620 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
7.580 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
7.494 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
7.189 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
6.914 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days

MCXARUN
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precious metals

COMEX Gold:

Gold trading is higher in ACCESS trade this morning extending the prior sessions gains. Trend indicators are showing the market in a neutral price pattern at present.

TREND INDICATORS:

Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session indicating further weakness. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bearish bias.

Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is falling, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. However, the weak ADX indicates that the current trend is deteriorating and may possibly reverse. Look for choppiness ahead.

MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bearish territory. However, the recent upturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term rally over the next few days.

RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 58.71). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 58.71 the market is somewhat overbought. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of weakness from this indicator before getting too bearish here.

VOLATILITY INDICATORS:

Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Despite this overbought condition the market may become more overbought before turning lower. As a result, the market will look for additional weakening in prices before turning bearish on this indicator.

COMEX Silver:

Silver futures are higher this morning extending the prior sessions gains. Trend indicators are indicating a bullish market. However the overall strength of the trend, as indicated by the ADX, is weak and should be watched as a result.

TREND INDICATORS:

Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is falling, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. However, the weak ADX indicates that the current trend is deteriorating and may possibly reverse. Look for choppiness ahead.

MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bearish territory. However, the recent upturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term rally over the next few days.

RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 63.20). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 63.20 the market is somewhat overbought. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of weakness from this indicator before getting too bearish here.

VOLATILITY INDICATORS:

Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Despite this overbought condition the market may become more overbought before turning lower. As a result, the market will look for additional weakening in prices before turning bearish on this indicator.

RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:

17.345 - Highest High in last 50-Days
17.345 - Highest High in last 10-Days
17.202 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
16.955 - High
16.940 - Last Price
16.825 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
16.785 - Low
16.757 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
16.755 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
16.342 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
16.230 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
16.071 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
15.694 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
15.475 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
14.823 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
13.869 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
13.740 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days

MCXARUN
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