Technicals – MCX (Intra day calls)

Technicals – MCX (Intra day calls)

CRUDE OIL (February) BULLISH ABOVE 3465 BEARISH BELOW 3451

GOLD (April) BULLISH ABOVE 11517 BEARISH BELOW 11479

SILVER (March) BULLISH ABOVE 21369 BEARISH BELOW 21285

COPPER (February) BULLISH ABOVE 289.6 BEARISH BELOW 288.8

LEAD (February) BULLISH ABOVE 111.5 BEARISH BELOW 111.1

NICKEL (February) BULLISH ABOVE 1073 BEARISH BELOW 1068

ZINC (February) BULLISH ABOVE 95.60 BEARISH BELOW 95.20

MCXARUN
9994500540

energy

Major Headline:

· World oil prices were lower in Asia Wednesday after fresh economic data in the US and Europe stoked concerns about falling demand.

· Prices have eased to around the $86.77 level at NYMEX, with rising stockpiles in America and fears of a global slowdown denting investor sentiment.

· MCX Crude Oil Feb registered a fall almost by 2% following international trend was trading below Rs 3440 per barrel.

· MCX Natural Gas Feb traded against the move and was up by almost 1 % , Market traded near 318.30 level with profit.

· The fall came after a widely watched survey showed the services sector of the US economy contracted for the first time in nearly five years in January.

· The Institute for Supply Management's index of non-manufacturing activity indicates that recession is at hand in the world's biggest economy.



Weekly Inventory Data:

· US crude inventories rose by far more than expected in the week to Feb 1, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

· Crude stocks rose by 7.0 mln barrels, against analysts' predictions for a 2.07 mln barrel rise.

· At 300 mln barrels, US crude oil inventories are in the middle of the average range for this time of year, the EIA said.

· Gasoline stock builds outstripped analysts' expectations, rising by 3.6 mln barrels against projections for a gain of just 1.7 mln barrels.

· Meanwhile distillate stocks, which include heating oil, also rose, gaining 100,000 barrels against expectations for a fall of 1.9 mln barrels.

· Heating oil remains in focus coming into the end of the peak winter demand period. Refineries meanwhile operated at 84.3 pct of their capacity, the EIA said, down 0.7 percentage points from 85 pct in the previous week.

· A nine-week fall in crude stocks over December and early January was a key factor in pushing crude stocks to an all-time high of 100.09 usd in the New Year.

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are still bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Crude Oil Feb: Sell at 3460-75 for the target of 3410 and 3380 with stop loss at 3495

MCX Natural gas Feb






Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are still bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

MCXARUN
9994500540

outlook

April gold closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of Tuesday's decline but remains below the 20-day moving
average crossing at 906.00. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are
bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the 25%
retracement level of the August-January rally crossing at 873.90 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving
average crossing at 916.10 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. First resistance is today's high crossing at
912.00 then the 10-day moving average crossing at 916.10. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 888.40 then the 25%
retracement level crossing at 873.90.

March silver closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off last Friday's high. The mid-range close sets
the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is
near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.401 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
If March renews the rally off December's low, weekly resistance crossing at 17.500 is the next upside target. First resistance is
last Friday's high crossing at 17.345 then month resistance crossing at 17.500. First support is today's low crossing at 16.230
then the 25% retracement level of the August-February rally crossing at 15.895.

March copper closed higher on Wednesday and above the 10-day moving average crossing at 324.35. The mid-range close sets
the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral hinting that a short-term top might be in
or is near. If March extends today's rally, the reaction high crossing at 337.85 is the next upside target. If March renews
Tuesday's decline, the reaction low crossing at 311.65 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at
337.50. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 337.85. First support is today's low crossing at 317.10. Second support
is last Monday's low crossing at 311.65.

March crude oil closed lower on Wednesday as it extends this week's breakout below the 10-day moving average crossing at
90.10. Today's low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends today's decline, January's low crossing at
85.42 is the next downside target. Closes above last week's high crossing at 92.71 are needed to confirm that a short-term low
has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 90.10. Second resistance is the 20-day moving
average crossing at 90.66. First support is today's low crossing at 86.66. Second support is January's low crossing at 85.42.

March Henry natural gas closed higher on Wednesday and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday.
Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes
above last week's high crossing at 8.123 are needed to renew the rally off January's low. If March extends the decline off
January's high, January's low crossing at 7.534 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 8.080
then last week's high crossing at 8.123. First support is Monday's low crossing at 7.580. Second support is January's low
crossing at 7.534.

MCXARUN
9994500540

GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS

Speculation that the Fed will cut interest rates even before the next meeting in March along with short covering and subsequent position rebuilding resulted in gold and silver rising sharply. Power outages in South African gold mines are also supporting gold from falling. Base metals are finding buyers at lower levels on expectations that demand will start to rise once Chinese factories swing into full production after the New Year Celebrations are over. Copper and Lead will be more volatile, zinc at lower levels risk to return ratio is in favor of the buyer while Nickel should break out from the current range trade.

The Bank of England is expected to cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage today while the European Central bank may change to a softer tone on interest rates. Gold and silver will be volatile and were unnerved by gains in the US dollar and declines in crude oil. Technically they are neutral to bullish. Friday’s close will set the tone for the rest of the month for gold and silver. A lower close on Friday will

suggest more losses next week.

SILVER -- MARCH FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT $1676.0

Silver will consolidate in a wider $1630-$1680 range. A consolidated break of $1680 will result in $1696 and $1712.

COPPER -- MARCH FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $339.0

Back to square one for copper. If copper holds $316 this week then it should break $339 by next week.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $85.20

Crude oil has to hold $85 or break $90 for direction.

MCXARUN
9994500540

for safe trade follow this

GOLD

sell only below 11325-300 S/L 11345 and T/p 11250/175-50/ 11075 upto 11000 OR sell ard 11515-25 S/L 11530 and T/p 11475-50/11375 (any time close above 11600/11875 bullish while close below 11250/10950-900/ 10500/10050/9850/ 9575 bearish for medium term)

SILVER

sell only below 21000-20975 S/L 21075 and T/p 20900 upto 20800 OR sell ard 21390-400 S/L 21425 and T/p 21325-250 (any time close below 19725/19375/19000/18625/18250/ 18100/17750/17050/16450 bearish rally while close above 21650/22000/23150 bullish for medium term)

CRUDE

EIA Crude oil inventory due to release today. for the day sell only below 3465 S/L 3485 and T/p 3435-40/3410-3385 OR buy only abv 3525 & 3540 S/L 3510 and T/p 3570-75/3610/3640/bullish rally (now crude need to close above 3640/ 3700/3840/3910-35 for bullish while close below 3465/3380/3290-60 bearish for medium term)

COPPER

sell only below 279.5 S/L 281 and T/p 278/276.5/273.5 upto 270 OR sell ard 284.75-285.25 S/L 285.5 and T/p 282.5-281 (upside strong rally only on close above 290/293/299/314/ 321.5/327/331.5/348 while close below 278/270/265/250/235 bearish for medium term)

MCXARUN
9994500540

energy

Major Headline:

· Crude oil fell to trade around $87.75 a barrel in New York on speculation a government report tomorrow will show U.S. supplies rose for a fourth week as refiners shut plants for maintenance before summer.
· MCX Crude Oil Feb fell almost by 3% and traded weak over all following international trend. MCX natural gas was trading in green and closed near 312.
· Inventories in the world's largest oil consumer probably gained 2.2 million barrels last week as refining rates dropped to a 22-month low, according to a Bloomberg survey of 11 analysts. U.S. share prices fell yesterday for the first time in three days after analysts warned a recession may increase loan defaults for banks and finance houses.
· The Houston Ship Channel, which serves the largest U.S. petroleum port, was closed to tanker traffic and other vessels because of fog. Traffic was halted at 6:10 p.m. local time on Feb. 3, reopened around midday Feb. 4, and shut again yesterday at 4 p.m., a Houston Pilots Association dispatcher said by telephone.
· StatoilHydro ASA, Norway's biggest oil producer, resumed oil and gas production at its Njord A field in the Norwegian Sea today after a fire in a gas turbine yesterday halted output. The Njord field produces 20,000 barrels of oil a day and exports 6 million standard cubic meters of gas a day.
· The Energy Department's weekly inventory report will probably show gasoline stockpiles gained 1.7 million barrels, according to the analyst survey, the 13th weekly increase.
· The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries last week left its production target unchanged, citing the prospect of slowing global demand growth and rising oil and fuel stockpiles.
· The group, which is forecasting a 1.5 million-barrel-a-day reduction in demand in the second quarter, will review production again on March 5.
· For a third day, the New York crude oil futures contract closest to delivery is less expensive than the price of some contracts for later delivery. This pattern, which arose Feb. 1 for the first time since December, encourages companies to build up stockpiles.


Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are still bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Crude Oil Feb: Sell at 3490-95 for the target of 3455 and 3422 with stop loss at 3533


MCX Natural gas Feb

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are still bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Natural Gas sell at 316/317 stoploss 320 target 313.30 and 308.50

MCXARUN
9994500540

Base metals

Major Headlines

Zinc fell for a third consecutive day in London as stockpiles of the metal climbed to the highest in 15 months, increasing the likelihood the market will have a supply surplus this year. Copper and aluminum also declined.

MCX Copper Traded weak, there was some downside pressure on the complex due to subdued equities, strong dollar, falling gold and oil.

MCX Copper Feb registered days low near Rs.280 per kg from days high of Rs. 288.70 per kg. Market closed with heavy losses.

MCX Zinc Feb lost almost 4% and traded weak, market closed near Rs. 94.00 per kg. MCX Lead Feb lost 3% in previous session and registered days low at Rs.107.85.

The Shanghai Futures Exchange will close for a week from tomorrow as the world's largest user of all industrial metals observes the Lunar New Year holiday.

BHP Billiton Ltd., whose $130 billion offer for Rio Tinto Group was set back by China, may report first- half profit rose driven by record prices and output of iron ore.

MCX Copper Feb

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Copper Feb: Sell at 283-284 for the target of 278 and 274 with stop loss at 288.90

MCX Zinc Feb

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Zinc Feb: Sell at 95.30-95.50 for the target of 93.50 and 92 with stop loss at 96.80

MCX Nickel Feb

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Nickel Feb: Sell at 1070-65 for the target of 1040 and 1020 with stop loss at 1095

MCX Lead Feb

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.



Recommendations:

MCX Lead Feb:

MCXARUN
9994500540