“In the Nick of Time”, that’s all I can comment on the Fed rate cut of 0.75% yesterday. Global stock markets and commodity markets were reeling under expectations of a US recession and the subsequent sell off. The Fed rate cut will provide the much needed relief to investor. Markets now expect the Fed to cut interest rates by a further 0.50% next week. The European central bank and bank of England may also follow the Fed and cut interest rates next month, thereby adding more liquidity to the markets. Interest rate cuts imply more liquidity to the money markets which will result in a rise in speculative interest in commodities and higher commodity price inflation coupled with lower growth rates, which is nothing but stagflation. Gold performs best in stagflation.
However physical gold demand at higher prices is almost negligent as prices have risen too fast. However if the gold price stabilizes around $850 for a long time, physical demand will return to the market. For the time being its investment demand which will dictate gold, silver and other metal prices. The best intra day strategy is to book partial profits on your trades and instead of putting a stop loss, exit the market when prices near the stop loss levels.
COPPER -- MARCH FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $327.0
Copper managed to hold $301 and needs to break $331 and $339 for gains.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $90.40
Crude oil has to hold $87 else it will fall to $82. The direct relationship between crude oil and the US dollar will continue. Resistance at $90.20
MCXARUN
9994500540
Wednesday, January 23, 2008
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
Base metals
Copper:
Copper trade on ACCESS is showing higher prices in recent activity extending the prior sessions gains. Trend indicators have turned from a neutral price pattern to a bullish bias. However the overall strength of the trend, as indicated by the ADX, is weak and should be watched as a result. Momentum readings are also bullish. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days and should be watched.
TREND INDICATORS:
Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. However, even though prices are trading below the moving average, the moving average slope is up from the previous session. Should prices continue lower the moving average will eventually follow and then the down trend will be more clearly established. However, this strength in the moving average will need to be watched. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a weak bearish bias.
Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. However, despite prices trading above the moving average line, the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session. If prices trade below the moving average then the trend will be clearly established as up. However, this strength in the price will need to be watched. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a weak bearish bias.
ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is falling, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is down. However, the weak ADX indicates that the current trend is deteriorating and may possibly reverse. Look for a choppiness ahead.
MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days.
RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 52.46). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 52.46 the market is somewhat overbought. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of weakness from this indicator before getting too bearish here.
VOLATILITY INDICATORS:
Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Volatility also appears to be decreasing, as evidenced by a smaller distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions.
RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:
3.3880 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
3.3785 - Highest High in last 10-Days
3.3785 - Highest High in last 50-Days
3.3648 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
3.3027 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
3.2695 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
3.2443 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
3.2140 - High
3.1990 - Last Price
3.1845 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
3.1450 - Low
3.1253 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
3.1060 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
3.1006 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
3.0789 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
2.9835 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
2.8530 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
MCXARUN
9994500540
Copper trade on ACCESS is showing higher prices in recent activity extending the prior sessions gains. Trend indicators have turned from a neutral price pattern to a bullish bias. However the overall strength of the trend, as indicated by the ADX, is weak and should be watched as a result. Momentum readings are also bullish. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days and should be watched.
TREND INDICATORS:
Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. However, even though prices are trading below the moving average, the moving average slope is up from the previous session. Should prices continue lower the moving average will eventually follow and then the down trend will be more clearly established. However, this strength in the moving average will need to be watched. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a weak bearish bias.
Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. However, despite prices trading above the moving average line, the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session. If prices trade below the moving average then the trend will be clearly established as up. However, this strength in the price will need to be watched. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a weak bearish bias.
ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is falling, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is down. However, the weak ADX indicates that the current trend is deteriorating and may possibly reverse. Look for a choppiness ahead.
MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days.
RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 52.46). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 52.46 the market is somewhat overbought. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of weakness from this indicator before getting too bearish here.
VOLATILITY INDICATORS:
Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Volatility also appears to be decreasing, as evidenced by a smaller distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions.
RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:
3.3880 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
3.3785 - Highest High in last 10-Days
3.3785 - Highest High in last 50-Days
3.3648 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
3.3027 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
3.2695 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
3.2443 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
3.2140 - High
3.1990 - Last Price
3.1845 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
3.1450 - Low
3.1253 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
3.1060 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
3.1006 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
3.0789 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
2.9835 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
2.8530 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
MCXARUN
9994500540
energy
Crude Oil:
Front month crude oil is weaker in ACCESS trade this morning extending the prior sessions weaker close. Trend indicators are indicating a bearish market and the overall strength of the trend is strong, as indicated by the ADX. Momentum readings are also in bearish territory.
TREND INDICATORS:
Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session indicating further weakness. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bearish bias.
Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. Furthermore the markets trend has changed direction since the previous session. The slope of the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session indicating weakness. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bearish bias.
Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session indicating further weakness. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bearish bias.
ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is rising, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is down. As the ADX is rising this indicates that the current trend is strong and should remain intact. Look for the current trend to continue.
MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bearish territory.
RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 40.71). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 40.71 the market is somewhat oversold. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of strength from this indicator before getting too bullish here.
VOLATILITY INDICATORS:
Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating oversold prices. Despite this oversold condition the market may become more oversold before turning higher. As a result, the market will look for additional strength in prices before turning bullish on this indicator.
RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:
100.09 - Highest High in last 50-Days
100.03 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
98.40 - Highest High in last 10-Days
97.28 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
93.85 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
93.34 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
93.07 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
91.77 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
90.36 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
90.13 - High
90.11 - Last Price
89.10 - Low
89.10 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
89.01 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
88.41 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
85.82 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
78.47 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
Natural Gas:
Natural Gas contracts are higher this morning reversing the weaker tone seen during the prior session. Trend indicators are indicating a bullish market. However the overall strength of the trend, as indicated by the ADX, is weak and should be watched as a result. Momentum readings are also bullish. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days and should be watched.
TREND INDICATORS:
Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices cross above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is falling, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. However, the weak ADX indicates that the current trend is deteriorating and may possibly reverse. Look for choppiness ahead.
MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days.
RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 62.90). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 62.90 the market is somewhat overbought. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of weakness from this indicator before getting too bearish here.
VOLATILITY INDICATORS:
Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Volatility also appears to be decreasing, as evidenced by a smaller distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions. Despite this overbought condition the market may become more overbought before turning lower. As a result, the market will look for additional weakening in prices before turning bearish on this indicator.
RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:
8.616 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
8.480 - Highest High in last 10-Days
8.480 - Highest High in last 50-Days
8.194 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
8.173 - High
8.173 - Last Price
8.135 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
8.129 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
8.110 - Low
7.701 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
7.640 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
7.588 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
7.348 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
7.231 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
7.171 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
6.926 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
6.914 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
MCXARUN
9994500540
Front month crude oil is weaker in ACCESS trade this morning extending the prior sessions weaker close. Trend indicators are indicating a bearish market and the overall strength of the trend is strong, as indicated by the ADX. Momentum readings are also in bearish territory.
TREND INDICATORS:
Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session indicating further weakness. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bearish bias.
Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. Furthermore the markets trend has changed direction since the previous session. The slope of the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session indicating weakness. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bearish bias.
Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session indicating further weakness. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bearish bias.
ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is rising, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is down. As the ADX is rising this indicates that the current trend is strong and should remain intact. Look for the current trend to continue.
MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bearish territory.
RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 40.71). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 40.71 the market is somewhat oversold. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of strength from this indicator before getting too bullish here.
VOLATILITY INDICATORS:
Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating oversold prices. Despite this oversold condition the market may become more oversold before turning higher. As a result, the market will look for additional strength in prices before turning bullish on this indicator.
RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:
100.09 - Highest High in last 50-Days
100.03 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
98.40 - Highest High in last 10-Days
97.28 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
93.85 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
93.34 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
93.07 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
91.77 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
90.36 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
90.13 - High
90.11 - Last Price
89.10 - Low
89.10 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
89.01 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
88.41 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
85.82 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
78.47 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
Natural Gas:
Natural Gas contracts are higher this morning reversing the weaker tone seen during the prior session. Trend indicators are indicating a bullish market. However the overall strength of the trend, as indicated by the ADX, is weak and should be watched as a result. Momentum readings are also bullish. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days and should be watched.
TREND INDICATORS:
Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices cross above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is falling, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. However, the weak ADX indicates that the current trend is deteriorating and may possibly reverse. Look for choppiness ahead.
MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days.
RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 62.90). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 62.90 the market is somewhat overbought. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of weakness from this indicator before getting too bearish here.
VOLATILITY INDICATORS:
Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Volatility also appears to be decreasing, as evidenced by a smaller distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions. Despite this overbought condition the market may become more overbought before turning lower. As a result, the market will look for additional weakening in prices before turning bearish on this indicator.
RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:
8.616 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
8.480 - Highest High in last 10-Days
8.480 - Highest High in last 50-Days
8.194 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
8.173 - High
8.173 - Last Price
8.135 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
8.129 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
8.110 - Low
7.701 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
7.640 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
7.588 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
7.348 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
7.231 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
7.171 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
6.926 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
6.914 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
MCXARUN
9994500540
Bullion
COMEX Gold:
Gold trading is weaker in ACCESS trade this morning extending the prior sessions weaker close. Trend indicators are indicating a bullish market. However the overall strength of the trend, as indicated by the ADX, is weak and should be watched as a result. MACD also has issued a bearish signal, suggesting a reversal in the current trend.
TREND INDICATORS:
Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. However, despite prices trading below the moving average line, the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session. If prices trade above the moving average then the trend will be clearly established as up. However, this weakness in the price will need to be watched. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a weak bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is falling, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. However, the weak ADX indicates that the current trend is deteriorating and may possibly reverse. Look for choppiness ahead.
MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: MACD has issued a bearish signal, suggesting a reversal of the current upward trend, based on the 50 day simple moving average. However, MACD tends to be better at picking bottoms than tops and the signal may be viewed with caution.
RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 59.82). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 59.82 the market is somewhat overbought. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of weakness from this indicator before getting too bearish here.
VOLATILITY INDICATORS:
Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Volatility also appears to be decreasing, as evidenced by a smaller distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions. The market is overbought and appears to be weakening. Look for a potential top in this area.
RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:
921.50 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
916.10 - Highest High in last 10-Days
916.10 - Highest High in last 50-Days
891.53 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
885.93 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
881.90 - High
879.33 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
875.50 - Last Price
870.60 - Low
857.80 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
849.81 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
831.59 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
828.81 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
801.62 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
787.89 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
773.40 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
729.89 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
COMEX Silver:
Silver futures are weaker this morning reversing the firmer tone seen during the prior session. Trend indicators are indicating a bullish market. However the overall strength of the trend, as indicated by the ADX, is weak and should be watched as a result. Momentum readings are also bullish. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days and should be watched.
TREND INDICATORS:
Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices cross below this moving average. However, despite prices trading below the moving average line, the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session. If prices trade above the moving average then the trend will be clearly established as up. However, this weakness in the price will need to be watched. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a weak bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is falling, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. However, the weak ADX indicates that the current trend is deteriorating and may possibly reverse. Look for choppiness ahead.
MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days.
RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 59.94). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 59.94 the market is somewhat overbought. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of weakness from this indicator before getting too bearish here.
VOLATILITY INDICATORS:
Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Volatility also appears to be decreasing, as evidenced by a smaller distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions. Despite this overbought condition the market may become more overbought before turning lower. As a result, the market will look for additional weakening in prices before turning bearish on this indicator.
RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:
16.759 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
16.715 - Highest High in last 10-Days
16.715 - Highest High in last 50-Days
16.112 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
16.009 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
15.965 - High
15.927 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
15.875 - Last Price
15.715 - Low
15.200 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
15.196 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
14.936 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
14.818 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
14.227 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
14.171 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
13.740 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
13.669 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
MCXARUN
9994500540
Gold trading is weaker in ACCESS trade this morning extending the prior sessions weaker close. Trend indicators are indicating a bullish market. However the overall strength of the trend, as indicated by the ADX, is weak and should be watched as a result. MACD also has issued a bearish signal, suggesting a reversal in the current trend.
TREND INDICATORS:
Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. However, despite prices trading below the moving average line, the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session. If prices trade above the moving average then the trend will be clearly established as up. However, this weakness in the price will need to be watched. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a weak bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is falling, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. However, the weak ADX indicates that the current trend is deteriorating and may possibly reverse. Look for choppiness ahead.
MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: MACD has issued a bearish signal, suggesting a reversal of the current upward trend, based on the 50 day simple moving average. However, MACD tends to be better at picking bottoms than tops and the signal may be viewed with caution.
RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 59.82). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 59.82 the market is somewhat overbought. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of weakness from this indicator before getting too bearish here.
VOLATILITY INDICATORS:
Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Volatility also appears to be decreasing, as evidenced by a smaller distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions. The market is overbought and appears to be weakening. Look for a potential top in this area.
RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:
921.50 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
916.10 - Highest High in last 10-Days
916.10 - Highest High in last 50-Days
891.53 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
885.93 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
881.90 - High
879.33 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
875.50 - Last Price
870.60 - Low
857.80 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
849.81 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
831.59 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
828.81 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
801.62 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
787.89 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
773.40 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
729.89 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
COMEX Silver:
Silver futures are weaker this morning reversing the firmer tone seen during the prior session. Trend indicators are indicating a bullish market. However the overall strength of the trend, as indicated by the ADX, is weak and should be watched as a result. Momentum readings are also bullish. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days and should be watched.
TREND INDICATORS:
Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices cross below this moving average. However, despite prices trading below the moving average line, the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session. If prices trade above the moving average then the trend will be clearly established as up. However, this weakness in the price will need to be watched. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a weak bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is falling, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. However, the weak ADX indicates that the current trend is deteriorating and may possibly reverse. Look for choppiness ahead.
MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days.
RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 59.94). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 59.94 the market is somewhat overbought. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of weakness from this indicator before getting too bearish here.
VOLATILITY INDICATORS:
Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Volatility also appears to be decreasing, as evidenced by a smaller distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions. Despite this overbought condition the market may become more overbought before turning lower. As a result, the market will look for additional weakening in prices before turning bearish on this indicator.
RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:
16.759 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
16.715 - Highest High in last 10-Days
16.715 - Highest High in last 50-Days
16.112 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
16.009 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
15.965 - High
15.927 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
15.875 - Last Price
15.715 - Low
15.200 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
15.196 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
14.936 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
14.818 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
14.227 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
14.171 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
13.740 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
13.669 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
MCXARUN
9994500540
WTI Crude Oil (CLG8) under 90.00 areas
We see –finally- Crude Oil taking on board the implications of a sharp US slowdown and possibly a recession. The actual debate between economists is to agree or not if the US economy is already in recession.
WTI Crude Oil (CLG8) under 90.00 areas, the focus has to be towards $87.00/bbl.
Nymex Natural Gas (NGG8) finally bowing to the pressure and trading below $7.90. We still believe the 7.70/8.00 area is a good entry point.
Note: the support/resistance levels used in the matrix’s of this document are levels derived from yesterday high, low and close. Reference in the text to other support/resistance levels will occur.
CRUDE
LCOH8
Resist.
89.23
89.23
89.23
87.87
89.23
89.23
89.23
Support
50dMA
91.8
10dMA
90.84
Thanks to saxo bank
MCXARUN
9994500540
WTI Crude Oil (CLG8) under 90.00 areas, the focus has to be towards $87.00/bbl.
Nymex Natural Gas (NGG8) finally bowing to the pressure and trading below $7.90. We still believe the 7.70/8.00 area is a good entry point.
Note: the support/resistance levels used in the matrix’s of this document are levels derived from yesterday high, low and close. Reference in the text to other support/resistance levels will occur.
CRUDE
LCOH8
Resist.
89.23
89.23
89.23
87.87
89.23
89.23
89.23
Support
50dMA
91.8
10dMA
90.84
Thanks to saxo bank
MCXARUN
9994500540
Gold February (gcg8) reached our first target @ USD 687o/z
We believe the contagion effect from the Sub Prime woes to the Equity will continue to spill-off to the Energy sector and Metals. Looking at the SP500, we can see some chart damaged has been done and we expect further declines in the weeks/months ahead. In this environment, Precious Metals with an Industrial purposes are the most exposed (Copper, Platinum, Silver). But we believe Gold correction will be short lived as Gold prices tend to perform strongly in a low or negative real interest rate environment.
Gold February (gcg8) reached our first target @ USD 687o/z. Next support is at USD862, if broken down USD835. areas.
Note: the support/resistance levels used in the matrix’s of this document are levels derived from yesterday high, low and close. Reference in the text to other support/resistance levels will occur.
GOLD SILVER
ZGG8 ZIG8
Resist. Resist.
891.8 16.214
883 16.043
877.8 15.986
883.8 16.058
869 15.815
865.4 15.701
856.6 15.53
Support Support
47dMA 34dMA
829.4 14.898
9dMA 9dMA
887.6 15.914
Thanks to saxo bank
MCXARUN
9994500540
Gold February (gcg8) reached our first target @ USD 687o/z. Next support is at USD862, if broken down USD835. areas.
Note: the support/resistance levels used in the matrix’s of this document are levels derived from yesterday high, low and close. Reference in the text to other support/resistance levels will occur.
GOLD SILVER
ZGG8 ZIG8
Resist. Resist.
891.8 16.214
883 16.043
877.8 15.986
883.8 16.058
869 15.815
865.4 15.701
856.6 15.53
Support Support
47dMA 34dMA
829.4 14.898
9dMA 9dMA
887.6 15.914
Thanks to saxo bank
MCXARUN
9994500540
Monday, January 21, 2008
Metals & Energy Outlook
Gold prices bounced back on Friday along with oil prices. Persistent US economic concerns supported the bullion’s recovery from early losses, but a stronger dollar limited the gains.
International spot gold traded in the range $870.10 - $888.20 and last quoted at $884.20 ($876.20).
The US President Bush called Friday for a ‘stimulus package’ of roughly $145 billion in tax relief for individuals and businesses, in an attempt to boost the economy.
Monday is a public holiday in the United States on account of Martin Luther King Day, observed to honour the American civil rights leader who led non-violent protests in opposition to segregation and discrimination against Black Americans.
Latest data from the US Labor market provided some support for the dollar, though Housing data and comments by the Fed Chairman suggesting a worsened outlook for the economy dampened the sentiments.
According to the weekly update by US Labor department on Thursday, the seasonally adjusted number of people filing initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell by 21,000 to 3,01,000 in the week ended Jan 12, the third consecutive weekly decline. The four-week average of new claims fell by 11,750 to 3,28,500.
However, the four week moving average for continuing claims rose 28,250 to 2.726 million, the highest level since November 2005.
The Commerce Department had reported that construction on new homes fell 14% in December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.01 million, the slowest building pace in more than 16 years.
Slightly more upbeat view of the US economy had helped the greenback to recover in the previous day. The Federal Reserve in its Beige Book, the summary of commentary on current economic conditions, had reported Wednesday that the US economy grew at a modest pace in most regions of the nation in late November and December.
However, the growing expectation of investors for further interest rate cuts in the US and persistent fears regarding the US economic outlook has kept the greenback vulnerable. Comments from the Fed chairman Ben Bernanke have reinforced the expectations for tight monetary measures by the Central Bank.
Medium-term Outlook (Spot Gold)
Gold prices are expected to trade within the range $837 - $770. Breaking of either level may decide the direction. $801 may act as the major resistance followed by $824, $836, $850, $863, 872, $887, $900, $912, $915.40, $926. Supports are $754 and $744.
Crude oil February in NYMEX traded in the range $89.61 - $91.32 and closed at $90.57 ($90.13).
Crude oil prices had fallen for continuous days during the week, weighed down by rise in inventories and fears of a slowdown in demand amid concerns regarding the economy of the largest energy consumer, the US.
The US Energy Information Administration reported Wednesday US crude inventories rose for the first time in nine weeks, up by 4.3 million barrels to 287.1 million barrels in the week ending Jan 11.
Last day, MCX Gold February closed at 11186, after trading in the range 11204 – 11175.
MCX Copper February traded in the range 282.60 – 282.00 and closed at 282.35.
Technicals – MCX (Intra day calls)
CRUDE OIL (February) BULLISH ABOVE 3548 BEARISH BELOW 3533
GOLD (February) BULLISH ABOVE 11208 BEARISH BELOW 11168
SILVER (March) BULLISH ABOVE 20941 BEARISH BELOW 20855
COPPER (February) BULLISH ABOVE 282.70 BEARISH BELOW 281.90
LEAD (January) BULLISH ABOVE 102.50 BEARISH BELOW 102.10
NICKEL (January) BULLISH ABOVE 1117 BEARISH BELOW 1113
ZINC (January) BULLISH ABOVE 92.70 BEARISH BELOW 92.30
MCXARUN
9994500540
International spot gold traded in the range $870.10 - $888.20 and last quoted at $884.20 ($876.20).
The US President Bush called Friday for a ‘stimulus package’ of roughly $145 billion in tax relief for individuals and businesses, in an attempt to boost the economy.
Monday is a public holiday in the United States on account of Martin Luther King Day, observed to honour the American civil rights leader who led non-violent protests in opposition to segregation and discrimination against Black Americans.
Latest data from the US Labor market provided some support for the dollar, though Housing data and comments by the Fed Chairman suggesting a worsened outlook for the economy dampened the sentiments.
According to the weekly update by US Labor department on Thursday, the seasonally adjusted number of people filing initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell by 21,000 to 3,01,000 in the week ended Jan 12, the third consecutive weekly decline. The four-week average of new claims fell by 11,750 to 3,28,500.
However, the four week moving average for continuing claims rose 28,250 to 2.726 million, the highest level since November 2005.
The Commerce Department had reported that construction on new homes fell 14% in December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.01 million, the slowest building pace in more than 16 years.
Slightly more upbeat view of the US economy had helped the greenback to recover in the previous day. The Federal Reserve in its Beige Book, the summary of commentary on current economic conditions, had reported Wednesday that the US economy grew at a modest pace in most regions of the nation in late November and December.
However, the growing expectation of investors for further interest rate cuts in the US and persistent fears regarding the US economic outlook has kept the greenback vulnerable. Comments from the Fed chairman Ben Bernanke have reinforced the expectations for tight monetary measures by the Central Bank.
Medium-term Outlook (Spot Gold)
Gold prices are expected to trade within the range $837 - $770. Breaking of either level may decide the direction. $801 may act as the major resistance followed by $824, $836, $850, $863, 872, $887, $900, $912, $915.40, $926. Supports are $754 and $744.
Crude oil February in NYMEX traded in the range $89.61 - $91.32 and closed at $90.57 ($90.13).
Crude oil prices had fallen for continuous days during the week, weighed down by rise in inventories and fears of a slowdown in demand amid concerns regarding the economy of the largest energy consumer, the US.
The US Energy Information Administration reported Wednesday US crude inventories rose for the first time in nine weeks, up by 4.3 million barrels to 287.1 million barrels in the week ending Jan 11.
Last day, MCX Gold February closed at 11186, after trading in the range 11204 – 11175.
MCX Copper February traded in the range 282.60 – 282.00 and closed at 282.35.
Technicals – MCX (Intra day calls)
CRUDE OIL (February) BULLISH ABOVE 3548 BEARISH BELOW 3533
GOLD (February) BULLISH ABOVE 11208 BEARISH BELOW 11168
SILVER (March) BULLISH ABOVE 20941 BEARISH BELOW 20855
COPPER (February) BULLISH ABOVE 282.70 BEARISH BELOW 281.90
LEAD (January) BULLISH ABOVE 102.50 BEARISH BELOW 102.10
NICKEL (January) BULLISH ABOVE 1117 BEARISH BELOW 1113
ZINC (January) BULLISH ABOVE 92.70 BEARISH BELOW 92.30
MCXARUN
9994500540
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