bullion chart

This is MCX gold day chart

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This is MCX Silver day chart

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Technicals – MCX (Intra day calls)

CRUDE OIL (February) BULLISH ABOVE 3558 BEARISH BELOW 3544

GOLD (February) BULLISH ABOVE 11209 BEARISH BELOW 11171

SILVER (March) BULLISH ABOVE 20663 BEARISH BELOW 20579

COPPER (February) BULLISH ABOVE 278.6 BEARISH BELOW 277.8

LEAD (January) BULLISH ABOVE 102.95 BEARISH BELOW 102.55

NICKEL (January) BULLISH ABOVE 1102.5BEARISH BELOW 1098.5

ZINC (January) BULLISH ABOVE 91.25BEARISH BELOW 90.85

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bullion intraday

Precious metals eased on MCX on profit booking following Tuesday's lifetime high of Rs.11,533 per 10 gm. MCX Gold Feb touched the low of Rs. 11102 per 10 gram on correction note and was trading with heavy losses. Similarly MCX Silver March followed the gold movement and registered the low of Rs. 20412 per kg

US-led recession fears knocked precious metals from near record highs overnight, with a steeper correction possible Wednesday depending on how financial markets stand up this session

The U.S. Department of Labor said that consumer prices were up .3% in December and up 4.1% for all of 2007, the biggest annual increase since 1990. Excluding food and energy, prices were up .2% in December and up 2.4% from a year ago. The December eurodollars are steady to higher.

The Mortgage Bankers Association said that its index of mortgage applications was up 28% last week to 906.4, the highest in over three and a half years. The average 30-year mortgage rate dropped to 5.62%, the lowest in over two and a half years.

The Federal Reserve said that industrial production was unchanged in December and up 1.5% from a year ago.

Indian Bullion Spot Market

Precious metals eased in spot markets following the profit booking in international markets after the recent highs.

· In Mumbai markets, gold (995) declined by Rs.345 to finish at Rs 11,230/10gm and gold (999) by Rs.245 at Rs 11,280/10gm whereas Silver (.999) closed at Rs 20,395/kg, down by Rs.325.

· Chennai gold (995) and gold (999) rose by Rs.60 to finish at Rs 11,450/10gm and Rs 11,500/10gm respectively whereas Silver (.999) closed at Rs 20,300/kg, up by Rs.200.

· Jaipur gold standard slipped by Rs.50 to finish at Rs.11,300/10gm whereas Silver(.999) by Rs.600 to close at Rs.20,000/kg.

· Ahmedabad gold (995) dipped by Rs.110 to close at Rs.11,210/10gm and gold (999) by Rs.105 to close at Rs.11,370/10gm respectively whereas Silver (.999) jumped up by Rs.225 to close at Rs.20,625/kg.

· In Delhi bullion markets, gold (995) declined by Rs.350 to close at Rs 11,350/10gm and gold (999) by Rs.230 to close at Rs 11,410/10gm respectively whereas Silver (.999) closed at Rs 20,020/kg, down by Rs.600.



MCX Gold Feb (Daily Chart)



Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are still bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations:

MCX Gold Feb: Buy at 11100-11090 for the target of 11280 and 11350 with stop loss at 11065



MCX Silver Mar (Daily Chart)



Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are still bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations:

MCX Silver March: Buy at 20400-420 for the target of 20850 and 20980 with stop loss at 20290

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Base metals

Copper:

Copper trade on ACCESS is showing weaker prices in recent activity extending the prior sessions weaker close. Trend indicators are indicating a bullish market. However the overall strength of the trend, as indicated by the ADX, is weak and should be watched as a result. Momentum readings are also bullish. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days and should be watched.

TREND INDICATORS:

Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices cross below this moving average. However, despite prices trading below the moving average line, the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session. If prices trade above the moving average then the trend will be clearly established as up. However, this weakness in the price will need to be watched. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a weak bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. However, despite prices trading above the moving average line, the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session. If prices trade below the moving average then the trend will be clearly established as up. However, this strength in the price will need to be watched. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a weak bearish bias.

ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is falling, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is down. However, the weak ADX indicates that the current trend is deteriorating and may possibly reverse. Look for a choppiness ahead.

MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days.

RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 50.47). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 50.47 the market is somewhat overbought. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of weakness from this indicator before getting too bearish here.

VOLATILITY INDICATORS:

Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices.

RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:

3.4000 - Highest High in last 50-Days
3.3910 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
3.3899 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
3.3785 - Highest High in last 10-Days
3.3056 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
3.2691 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
3.2507 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
3.2406 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
3.2335 - High
3.1715 - Last Price
3.1470 - Low
3.1151 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
3.1050 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
3.0550 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
3.0253 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
2.9034 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
2.8530 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days

MCXARUN
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energy

Crude Oil:

Front month crude oil is weaker in ACCESS trade this morning extending the prior sessions weaker close. Trend indicators are showing the market in a neutral price pattern at present.

TREND INDICATORS:

Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session indicating further weakness. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bearish bias.

Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. However, despite prices trading below the moving average line, the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session. If prices trade above the moving average then the trend will be clearly established as up. However, this weakness in the price will need to be watched. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a weak bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session indicating further weakness. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bearish bias.

ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is rising, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is down. As the ADX is rising this indicates that the current trend is strong and should remain intact. Look for the current trend to continue.

MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bearish territory.

RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 41.89). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 41.89 the market is somewhat oversold. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of strength from this indicator before getting too bullish here.

VOLATILITY INDICATORS:

Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating oversold prices. Despite this oversold condition the market may become more oversold before turning higher. As a result, the market will look for additional strength in prices before turning bullish on this indicator.

RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:

100.09 - Highest High in last 50-Days
100.09 - Highest High in last 10-Days
99.95 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
97.26 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
94.73 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
94.01 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
93.59 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
92.25 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
91.90 - High
91.87 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
90.65 - Last Price
90.60 - Low
90.60 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
89.18 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
88.04 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
85.82 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
78.19 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average

Natural Gas:

Natural Gas contracts are weaker this morning extending the prior sessions weaker close. Trend indicators have turned from a neutral price pattern to a bullish bias and the overall strength of the trend is strong, as indicated by the ADX.

TREND INDICATORS:

Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices cross below this moving average. However, despite prices trading below the moving average line, the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session. If prices trade above the moving average then the trend will be clearly established as up. However, this weakness in the price will need to be watched. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a weak bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is rising, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. As the ADX is rising it indicates that the current trend is strong and should remain intact. Look for the current trend to continue.

MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days.

RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 59.79). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 59.79 the market is somewhat overbought. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of weakness from this indicator before getting too bearish here.

VOLATILITY INDICATORS:

Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. The market is overbought and appears to be weakening. Look for a potential top in this area.

RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:

8.543 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
8.480 - Highest High in last 10-Days
8.480 - Highest High in last 50-Days
8.230 - High
8.200 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
8.107 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
8.053 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
8.052 - Last Price
8.050 - Low
7.571 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
7.566 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
7.500 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
7.234 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
7.179 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
7.165 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
6.914 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
6.797 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations

MCXARUN
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Bullion

COMEX Gold:

Gold trading is weaker in ACCESS trade this morning extending the prior sessions weaker close. Trend indicators are indicating a bullish market and the overall strength of the trend is strong, as indicated by the ADX. Momentum readings are also bullish. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days and should be watched.

TREND INDICATORS:

Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices cross below this moving average. However, despite prices trading below the moving average line, the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session. If prices trade above the moving average then the trend will be clearly established as up. However, this weakness in the price will need to be watched. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a weak bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is rising, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. As the ADX is rising it indicates that the current trend is strong and should remain intact. Look for the current trend to continue.

MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days.

RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 64.29). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 64.29 the market is somewhat overbought. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of weakness from this indicator before getting too bearish here.

VOLATILITY INDICATORS:

Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. The market is overbought and appears to be weakening. Look for a potential top in this area.

RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:

921.59 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
916.10 - Highest High in last 10-Days
916.10 - Highest High in last 50-Days
901.00 - High
896.37 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
888.02 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
883.92 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
883.10 - Last Price
878.50 - Low
856.50 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
845.05 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
826.85 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
820.89 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
787.32 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
783.84 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
773.40 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
727.90 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average

COMEX Silver:

Silver futures are weaker this morning extending the prior sessions weaker close. Trend indicators are indicating a bullish market. However the overall strength of the trend, as indicated by the ADX, is weak and should be watched as a result. Momentum readings are also bullish. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days and should be watched.

TREND INDICATORS:

Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices cross below this moving average. However, despite prices trading below the moving average line, the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session. If prices trade above the moving average then the trend will be clearly established as up. However, this weakness in the price will need to be watched. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a weak bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is falling, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. However, as the ADX has turned lower, it indicates weakness in the current trend. As a result, the market may turn choppy here and has the potential to move lower.

MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days.

RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 62.07). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 62.07 the market is somewhat overbought. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of weakness from this indicator before getting too bearish here.

VOLATILITY INDICATORS:

Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. The market is overbought and appears to be weakening. Look for a potential top in this area.

RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:

16.744 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
16.715 - Highest High in last 10-Days
16.715 - Highest High in last 50-Days
16.230 - High
16.213 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
16.018 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
15.919 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
15.915 - Last Price
15.770 - Low
15.165 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
15.109 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
14.913 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
14.565 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
14.147 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
13.838 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
13.740 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
13.646 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average

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GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS

US dollar gains, gold falls. Yesterday volatility was higher as traders now expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 0.50% instead of 0.75%. This resulted in higher volatility. Once again gold edged higher before the London pm fixing only to fall thereafter. At lower levels physical gold demand will start to rise marginally from zero. Silver was also volatile but has remained firm. Even if the Fed cuts interest rates by 0.50%, interest rates differentials will widen. Further the Fed will not stop and will cut interest rates in March also. This will result in more losses for the US dollar and gains for gold and silver. Base metals will depend on how global growth picks up.

Technically, this is a just a correction in gold and silver and nothing else. There could be more losses if technical trade continues. Once momentum picks up gold and silver will once again start to rise and create new highs.

GOLD -- FEBRURAY FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT:$874.0

As long as gold holds $856 and $872 downside will be limited and gold will target $900 and $915 once again.

MCXARUN
9994500540