February gold closed lower on Monday as it consolidated some of last week's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a
steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral hinting that a short-term
top might be in or is near. If February extends this month's rally, November's high crossing at 855.00 is the next upside target.
From a broad perspective, February gold needs to close above 855.00 or below 780.40 to confirm a breakout of the late-fall
trading range and point the direction of the next trending move. First resistance is today's high crossing at 847.40 then
November's high crossing at 855.00. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 818.80 then the 20-day moving
average crossing at 812.60.
March silver closed slightly higher on Monday and as it extends last week's rally and spiked above the previous reaction high
crossing at 14.975. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are
becoming overbought but remains bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this
week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 15.220 is the next upside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 15.080
then the reaction high crossing at 15.220. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 14.532 then the 20-day moving
average crossing at 14.517.
February crude oil closed lower on Monday as it consolidated some of last week's rally but remains above minor resistance
crossing at 94.72. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are
overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day
moving average crossing at 91.68 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. A close below the reaction low
crossing at 85.60 would renew the decline off November's high. If February extends December's rally, November's high
crossing at 98.12 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 97.92. Second resistance is
November's high crossing at 98.12. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 93.52 then the 20-day moving
average crossing at 91.68.
February Henry natural gas closed higher on Monday as it extended last Friday's rally above the 20-day moving average
crossing at 7.273. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI
have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at
7.608 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If February renews the decline off November's high, weekly
support crossing at 6.801 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 7.530 then the reaction high
crossing at 7.608. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 7.268 then last Thursday's low crossing at 6.950.
MCXARUN
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Wednesday, January 2, 2008
energy
MCX Crude Oil Jan trade in a tight range on Tuesday, as major international market remained closed for New Year celebrations. US and UK financial market will remained closed for the day on the account of New Year holiday.
MCX Crude Oil Jan opened at Rs. 3772 per barrel and remained in a tight range of 3770-3780, Similarly MCX Natural Gas Jan contract opened at Rs. 293.50 per mmBtu and remained in a tight range of 292-296.
Iran on Sunday said that it will begin operation of the country's first nuclear power plant in the summer of 2008 using half its 1,000 megawatt capacity. Iran, the second largest Opec producer, already faces two rounds of UN sanctions for its uranium enrichments programme and the announcement may increase tensions with the West.
Geopolitical tensions were already high due to a series of Turkish military attacks of Kurdish militant targets based in northern Iraq and as assassination of former Pakistani Premier Benazir Bhutto led to unrest in the nation raising concerns about stability in the region. However the govt. claimed that normalcy has returned today.
MCX Crude Oil Jan (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies have turned bullish; will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are increasing from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 18-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Crude Oil Jan: Buy at 3740-20 for target of 3815 and 3860 with stop loss below 3705
MCX Natural gas Jan (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are still bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Natural Gas Jan: Buy at 290 for the target of 315 and 325 with stop loss at 280
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MCX Crude Oil Jan opened at Rs. 3772 per barrel and remained in a tight range of 3770-3780, Similarly MCX Natural Gas Jan contract opened at Rs. 293.50 per mmBtu and remained in a tight range of 292-296.
Iran on Sunday said that it will begin operation of the country's first nuclear power plant in the summer of 2008 using half its 1,000 megawatt capacity. Iran, the second largest Opec producer, already faces two rounds of UN sanctions for its uranium enrichments programme and the announcement may increase tensions with the West.
Geopolitical tensions were already high due to a series of Turkish military attacks of Kurdish militant targets based in northern Iraq and as assassination of former Pakistani Premier Benazir Bhutto led to unrest in the nation raising concerns about stability in the region. However the govt. claimed that normalcy has returned today.
MCX Crude Oil Jan (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies have turned bullish; will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are increasing from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 18-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Crude Oil Jan: Buy at 3740-20 for target of 3815 and 3860 with stop loss below 3705
MCX Natural gas Jan (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are still bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Natural Gas Jan: Buy at 290 for the target of 315 and 325 with stop loss at 280
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Bullion
MCX Gold Feb traded in a tight range on Tuesday, as major international market remained closed for New Year celebrations. US and UK financial market remained closed for the day on the account of New Year holiday.
MCX Gold Feb opened at Rs. 10609 prg ten gram and remained in a tight range of 10585 –10625, Similarly MCX Silver March contract opened at Rs. 19422 per kg and remained in a tight range of 19420 –19500.
Wednesday Bullions are expected to remain positive on Weak dollar and higher energy prices following trend from last week. There are many data expected on Wednesday including FOMC Minutes at 15: 00 ET.
Concern about global security issues continues to boost the allure of gold following Bhutto's assassination, the ensuing unrest in nuclear power Pakistan and possible spill over effects into the wider region.
Worse-than-expected US housing data Friday, and the assassination of Pakistani opposition leader Benazir Bhutto last week triggered fresh safe-haven buying late, which added a plank of support to precious metals as the year comes to a close.
MCX Gold Feb (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies have turned bullish; will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are increasing from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 18-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Gold Feb: Buy at 10560-580 for the target of 10680 and 10760 with stop loss at 10520
MCX Silver Mar (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies have turned bullish; will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are increasing from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 18-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Silver March: Buy at 19400-380 for the target of 19640 and 19780 with stop loss at 19280
MCXARUN
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MCX Gold Feb opened at Rs. 10609 prg ten gram and remained in a tight range of 10585 –10625, Similarly MCX Silver March contract opened at Rs. 19422 per kg and remained in a tight range of 19420 –19500.
Wednesday Bullions are expected to remain positive on Weak dollar and higher energy prices following trend from last week. There are many data expected on Wednesday including FOMC Minutes at 15: 00 ET.
Concern about global security issues continues to boost the allure of gold following Bhutto's assassination, the ensuing unrest in nuclear power Pakistan and possible spill over effects into the wider region.
Worse-than-expected US housing data Friday, and the assassination of Pakistani opposition leader Benazir Bhutto last week triggered fresh safe-haven buying late, which added a plank of support to precious metals as the year comes to a close.
MCX Gold Feb (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies have turned bullish; will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are increasing from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 18-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Gold Feb: Buy at 10560-580 for the target of 10680 and 10760 with stop loss at 10520
MCX Silver Mar (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies have turned bullish; will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are increasing from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 18-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Silver March: Buy at 19400-380 for the target of 19640 and 19780 with stop loss at 19280
MCXARUN
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GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
A happy 2008 to all of you. All the hype at the moment is on gold and not on silver as far as precious metals are concerned. Over the last eighteen months silver got bogged down due to over hype. In 2008, silver is not over hyped and as a result it should find more investment demand as well as speculative interest. Silver will not be affected by losses in base metals in 2008. Silver should outperform gold in 2008. Gold is getting support from geopolitical risk. The difference between 2007 and 2008 will be geopolitical risk. In 2007 geopolitical risk was virtually zero which will not be the case in 2008. Geopolitical risk will only add to the volatility in the precious metals market.
For the rest of the week, all eyes will be on the US dollar. Markets have factored in a quarter of a percentage interest rate cut by the Fed this month. Gold and silver closing on Friday will set the direction for the rest of January. Technically gold and silver are bullish.
Gold needs to break $854 for gains to $880. On the lower side as long as $830 and 819 holds downside will be limited.
SILVER -- MARCH FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT $1482.0
As long as silver holds $1456 it will target $1557 and $1627.0
COPPER -- MARCH FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $307
Copper has to hold $303.20 on closing basis to be in the bullish zone and target $317 and $322. A consolidated fall below $303.20 will result in $292 and $286
MCXARUN
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For the rest of the week, all eyes will be on the US dollar. Markets have factored in a quarter of a percentage interest rate cut by the Fed this month. Gold and silver closing on Friday will set the direction for the rest of January. Technically gold and silver are bullish.
Gold needs to break $854 for gains to $880. On the lower side as long as $830 and 819 holds downside will be limited.
SILVER -- MARCH FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT $1482.0
As long as silver holds $1456 it will target $1557 and $1627.0
COPPER -- MARCH FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $307
Copper has to hold $303.20 on closing basis to be in the bullish zone and target $317 and $322. A consolidated fall below $303.20 will result in $292 and $286
MCXARUN
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Friday, December 28, 2007
Energy
Crude-oil futures rose for a fourth day on Thursday to above $97 a barrel after government reports showed U.S. crude inventories fell for a sixth week and as geopolitical tensions escalated after former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto was assassinated.
U.S. crude inventories fell by 3.3 million barrels to 293.6 million barrels in the week ending Dec. 21, the lowest in nearly three years, U.S. Energy Information Administration reported on Thursday. Analysts polled by Dow Jones Newswires were expecting a drawdown of 1.2 million barrels.
U.S. crude inventories have fallen more than 20 million barrels since the week ending Nov. 9. U.S. is the world's largest crude-oil consumer, accounting for nearly a quarter of the world's production.
Pakistani opposition leader Bhutto died after a suicide bombing that also killed at least 20 others after a political rally in Rawalpindi, Pakistan. Pakistan, while not a significant oil producer, holds nuclear weapons, and the death of Bhutto could increase tensions in the region.
Weekly Crude Oil Inventory:
US Weekly distillate stocks: Actual -2.800m; Reuters Survey -0.800m; Prior -2.100m
US Weekly crude oil stocks: Actual -3.300m; Reuters Survey -1.000m; Prior -7.600m
US Weekly gasoline stocks: Actual 0.700m; Reuters Survey 1.600m; Prior 3.000m
Impact: Overall data is supportive for higher energy prices
MCX Crude Oil Jan (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies have turned bullish; will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are increasing from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 18-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Crude Oil Jan: sell at 3820-3830 for target of 3768 and 3706 with stop loss below 3865
MCX Natural gas Jan (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are still bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Natural Gas Jan: buy at Buy at 274-75 for the target of 285 and 290 with stop loss at 270.40
MCXARUN
9994500540
U.S. crude inventories fell by 3.3 million barrels to 293.6 million barrels in the week ending Dec. 21, the lowest in nearly three years, U.S. Energy Information Administration reported on Thursday. Analysts polled by Dow Jones Newswires were expecting a drawdown of 1.2 million barrels.
U.S. crude inventories have fallen more than 20 million barrels since the week ending Nov. 9. U.S. is the world's largest crude-oil consumer, accounting for nearly a quarter of the world's production.
Pakistani opposition leader Bhutto died after a suicide bombing that also killed at least 20 others after a political rally in Rawalpindi, Pakistan. Pakistan, while not a significant oil producer, holds nuclear weapons, and the death of Bhutto could increase tensions in the region.
Weekly Crude Oil Inventory:
US Weekly distillate stocks: Actual -2.800m; Reuters Survey -0.800m; Prior -2.100m
US Weekly crude oil stocks: Actual -3.300m; Reuters Survey -1.000m; Prior -7.600m
US Weekly gasoline stocks: Actual 0.700m; Reuters Survey 1.600m; Prior 3.000m
Impact: Overall data is supportive for higher energy prices
MCX Crude Oil Jan (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies have turned bullish; will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are increasing from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 18-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Crude Oil Jan: sell at 3820-3830 for target of 3768 and 3706 with stop loss below 3865
MCX Natural gas Jan (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are still bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Natural Gas Jan: buy at Buy at 274-75 for the target of 285 and 290 with stop loss at 270.40
MCXARUN
9994500540
precious metals
Precious metals zoomed in MCX, COMEX and spot markets reflecting the trends in international markets supported by Bhutto death, positive consumer confidence data and increase in jobless claims.
Gold rallied on Thursday tracing the gains in oil and a weak dollar. International spot gold currently quoted at $827 troy an ounce, up by $3 Oil traded at $97.20 per barrel. The euro was up against the dollar.
Benazir Bhutto, the former Prime Minister of Pakistan, was killed on 27th Dec 2007, along with at least 14 of her supporters in an intentional suicidal attack. Bhutto led the opposition against President Musharraf and her death adds even more fuel to what was already a highly flammable political situation.
US Economic data gave a support to higher bullion prices as consumer confidences was les then expected and Job less claim data increased.
The U.S. Commerce Department said that durable good orders were up .1% in November, less than expected. Excluding transportation, orders were down .7% in November.
The Conference Board's index of consumer confidence increased from 87.8 to 88.6 in December, stronger than expected.
MCX Gold Feb (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies have turned bullish; will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are increasing from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 18-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Gold Feb: Buy at 10455-475 for the target of 10550 and 10600 with stop loss at 10430
MCX Silver Mar (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies have turned bullish; will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are increasing from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 18-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Silver March: Buy at 19200-250 for the target of 19340 and 19520 with stop loss at 19120
MCXARUN
9994500540
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