CRUDE OIL
LIKELY TO TEST 3460-35 UPTO 3410 WITH ANY CLOSE BELOW 3500 WHILE CLOSE ABOVE 3715/3875-3900 UPTREND AGAIN(JAN)
NATGAS
LIKELY TO TEST 275-72 UPTO 267 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 282-280, ONLY CLOSE ABOVE 302 SOME UPSIDE AGAIN
(JAN)
MCXARUN
9994500540
Wednesday, December 26, 2007
outlook
February gold closed higher on Friday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 807.40. The high-range close sets the
stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible near-term. Closes above last Wednesday's high crossing at 822.80 are needed to renew the rally off
November's low. From a broad perspective, February gold needs to close above 855.00 or below 780.40 to confirm a breakout
of the late-fall trading range and point the direction of the next trending move. First resistance is today's high crossing at 816.70
then last Wednesday's high crossing at 822.80. First support is Monday's low crossing at 789.60 then the reaction low crossing
at 783.00.
March silver closed higher on Friday and as it extended this week's rally and closed above the 20-day moving average crossing
at 14.453. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned
bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above the 20-day moving average
confirms that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends this week's rally, this month's high crossing at 14.975 is the
next upside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 14.580 then the reaction high crossing at 14.975. First support is
Monday's low crossing at 13.740 then October's low crossing at 13.360.
February crude oil closed sharply higher on Friday as it rebounded off the 25% retracement level of the August-November rally
crossing at 90.65. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to
bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February renews last week's rally, the reaction high
crossing at .9660 is the next upside target. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at 89.15 would temper the near-term friendly
outlook in the market. A close below the reaction low crossing at .8560 would renew the decline off November's high. First
resistance is today's high crossing at 93.84. Second resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 94.72. First support is
Tuesday's low crossing at 89.15 then the 38% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 86.67.
February Henry natural gas closed higher on Friday and above the 10-day moving average crossing at 7.260. The high-range
close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.373 are needed to confirm that a
short-term low has been posted. If February renews the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 6.801 is the
next downside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 7.352 then the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.373.
First support is Monday's low crossing at 7.045 then weekly support crossing at 6.801.
MCXARUN
9994500540
stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible near-term. Closes above last Wednesday's high crossing at 822.80 are needed to renew the rally off
November's low. From a broad perspective, February gold needs to close above 855.00 or below 780.40 to confirm a breakout
of the late-fall trading range and point the direction of the next trending move. First resistance is today's high crossing at 816.70
then last Wednesday's high crossing at 822.80. First support is Monday's low crossing at 789.60 then the reaction low crossing
at 783.00.
March silver closed higher on Friday and as it extended this week's rally and closed above the 20-day moving average crossing
at 14.453. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned
bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above the 20-day moving average
confirms that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends this week's rally, this month's high crossing at 14.975 is the
next upside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 14.580 then the reaction high crossing at 14.975. First support is
Monday's low crossing at 13.740 then October's low crossing at 13.360.
February crude oil closed sharply higher on Friday as it rebounded off the 25% retracement level of the August-November rally
crossing at 90.65. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to
bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February renews last week's rally, the reaction high
crossing at .9660 is the next upside target. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at 89.15 would temper the near-term friendly
outlook in the market. A close below the reaction low crossing at .8560 would renew the decline off November's high. First
resistance is today's high crossing at 93.84. Second resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 94.72. First support is
Tuesday's low crossing at 89.15 then the 38% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 86.67.
February Henry natural gas closed higher on Friday and above the 10-day moving average crossing at 7.260. The high-range
close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.373 are needed to confirm that a
short-term low has been posted. If February renews the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 6.801 is the
next downside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 7.352 then the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.373.
First support is Monday's low crossing at 7.045 then weekly support crossing at 6.801.
MCXARUN
9994500540
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
Last Friday we had mentioned that traders will either square off or go long in precious metals and energies, we were right. Volumes this week will fall and trading will be volatile. Window dressing by fund managers along with position building for the first quarter of 2008, particularly in the options markets will dictate the markets. There is nothing new to comment and it will be technical trade for the rest of the week.
Crude oil floating over $90 a barrel as the year comes to a close. Crude oil has given the best return in 2007, which will draw more and more investor going long in crude oil. I am skeptical about rise in crude oil prices after August 2008. The reason, 2008 is US elections year and higher energy prices will become a political issue which could result in speculators cutting some of the longs in crude oil ahead of the US elections. Unless there are major hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico in 2008, we remain bearish on crude oil before US presidential elections. I did rather take a chance and buy some puts between July and November 2008.
Emerging market stocks like India had a great and memorable 2007. This will continue into 2008. However it will not be a one way traffic like 2007. There will be some fluctuations. India stock markets and India companies will benefit from interest rates cuts from other central banks as cost of funds decline. However the sectors which performed in 2007 may be the laggards in 2008. We prefer to buy interest rate sensitive sectors like Automobiles and others (apart from infrastructure) for 2008 as lower global interest rates and lower commodity prices will benefit them. Apart from interest rate sensitive stocks, agro - commodity stocks (apart from sugar) is also a good long term investment as higher prices are here to stay.
GOLD -- FEBRURAY FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT:$723
Gold has to break $825 for gains to $848, else it will fall to $808 and $798 once again.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $92.10
Crude oil needs to break $95 else it will fall to $90.50 and $88.90 once again. As long as crude oil floats over $90.50 downside will be limited.
Crude oil floating over $90 a barrel as the year comes to a close. Crude oil has given the best return in 2007, which will draw more and more investor going long in crude oil. I am skeptical about rise in crude oil prices after August 2008. The reason, 2008 is US elections year and higher energy prices will become a political issue which could result in speculators cutting some of the longs in crude oil ahead of the US elections. Unless there are major hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico in 2008, we remain bearish on crude oil before US presidential elections. I did rather take a chance and buy some puts between July and November 2008.
Emerging market stocks like India had a great and memorable 2007. This will continue into 2008. However it will not be a one way traffic like 2007. There will be some fluctuations. India stock markets and India companies will benefit from interest rates cuts from other central banks as cost of funds decline. However the sectors which performed in 2007 may be the laggards in 2008. We prefer to buy interest rate sensitive sectors like Automobiles and others (apart from infrastructure) for 2008 as lower global interest rates and lower commodity prices will benefit them. Apart from interest rate sensitive stocks, agro - commodity stocks (apart from sugar) is also a good long term investment as higher prices are here to stay.
GOLD -- FEBRURAY FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT:$723
Gold has to break $825 for gains to $848, else it will fall to $808 and $798 once again.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $92.10
Crude oil needs to break $95 else it will fall to $90.50 and $88.90 once again. As long as crude oil floats over $90.50 downside will be limited.
Monday, December 24, 2007
Base Metals
Base metals finished up on MCX on short covering ahead of the long weekend holiday on the benchmark LME.Copper most active February finished at Rs.272.30/kg, rising by Rs.1/kg. It tossed in the range Rs.271.75-273/kg.
Meanwhile both copper and zinc futures on SHFE hit their daily limit up for the second consecutive time on Friday despite the sixth interest rate hike of 7.47% by China.
LME will be closed on 24th, 25th and 26th December for Christmas.
Global copper use rose 7.1 percent in the nine months ended Sept. 30, boosted by Chinese demand, the International Copper Study Group said.
MCX Copper Feb (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies have turned bullish; will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are increasing from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 18-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Copper Feb: Buy at 268-270 for the target of 276 and 280 with stop loss at 265.50
MCX Zinc Dec (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies have turned bullish; will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are increasing from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 18-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Zinc Dec: Buy at 94.50-94.00 for the target of 97.00 and 98.80 with stop loss at 93.20
MCX Nickel Dec (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies have turned bullish; will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are increasing from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 18-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Nickel Dec: Buy at 1060-1055 for the target of 1075 and 1090 with stop loss 1045
MCX Lead Dec (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies have turned bullish; will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are increasing from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 18-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Lead Dec: Buy at 106 –105.50 for the target of 108 and 109.80 with stop loss at 104.40
Meanwhile both copper and zinc futures on SHFE hit their daily limit up for the second consecutive time on Friday despite the sixth interest rate hike of 7.47% by China.
LME will be closed on 24th, 25th and 26th December for Christmas.
Global copper use rose 7.1 percent in the nine months ended Sept. 30, boosted by Chinese demand, the International Copper Study Group said.
MCX Copper Feb (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies have turned bullish; will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are increasing from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 18-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Copper Feb: Buy at 268-270 for the target of 276 and 280 with stop loss at 265.50
MCX Zinc Dec (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies have turned bullish; will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are increasing from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 18-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Zinc Dec: Buy at 94.50-94.00 for the target of 97.00 and 98.80 with stop loss at 93.20
MCX Nickel Dec (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies have turned bullish; will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are increasing from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 18-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Nickel Dec: Buy at 1060-1055 for the target of 1075 and 1090 with stop loss 1045
MCX Lead Dec (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies have turned bullish; will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are increasing from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 18-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Lead Dec: Buy at 106 –105.50 for the target of 108 and 109.80 with stop loss at 104.40
Energy
Nymex crude bounced back as US crude oil stocks fell for the fifth time last week and were noted at the lowest level since Feb.2005 and as reports noted that OPEC shipments may decline. However weighing on prices were forecasts of milder weather which will keep demand in a check.
Nymex crude jumped by 2.5% on Friday to settle at the highest price since Dec.12. Nymex crude bounced back as positive US consumer spending report released bolstered confidence in the economy easing concerns about oil demand. Also supporting prices was weaker dollar against the Euro, rally in gasoline futures, and a rise in US equity markets and reports that Opec shipments may fall.
MCX crude may witness thin volumes in coming week due to Christmas holiday in Global market. Thin volumes exacerbate price movements. Also traders will now square positions ahead of the year-end.
MCX Crude Oil Jan (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day and 18 days moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative. Over all technical suggest a bullish market and prices are expected to go further up.
Recommendations:
MCX Crude Oil Jan: Buy at 3655-3660 for target of 3730 and 3765 with stop loss below 3620
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day and 18 days moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative. Over all technical suggest a bullish market and prices are expected to go further up.
Recommendations:
MCX Natural Gas Jan: Buy at 290-285 for the target of 315 and 325 with stop loss at 270
Nymex crude jumped by 2.5% on Friday to settle at the highest price since Dec.12. Nymex crude bounced back as positive US consumer spending report released bolstered confidence in the economy easing concerns about oil demand. Also supporting prices was weaker dollar against the Euro, rally in gasoline futures, and a rise in US equity markets and reports that Opec shipments may fall.
MCX crude may witness thin volumes in coming week due to Christmas holiday in Global market. Thin volumes exacerbate price movements. Also traders will now square positions ahead of the year-end.
MCX Crude Oil Jan (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day and 18 days moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative. Over all technical suggest a bullish market and prices are expected to go further up.
Recommendations:
MCX Crude Oil Jan: Buy at 3655-3660 for target of 3730 and 3765 with stop loss below 3620
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day and 18 days moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative. Over all technical suggest a bullish market and prices are expected to go further up.
Recommendations:
MCX Natural Gas Jan: Buy at 290-285 for the target of 315 and 325 with stop loss at 270
Bullion
Gold rose after the dollar fell against the euro, boosting the appeal of the precious metal as an alternative investment. Silver also gained. Trading in gold is likely to remain sideways on thin trading towards the closure of the year and volatile action in currency and energy markets.
The dollar fell on Friday against 15 of the 16 most-active currencies. Investment in the StreetTracks Gold Trust, an exchange-traded fund backed by bullion, has climbed to a record 617 metric tons.
Gold also climbed on Friday on demand for a hedge against inflation, the U.S. Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation accelerated, a report by the Commerce Department showed.
The Fed, the European Central Bank along with central banks in Canada, Switzerland and the U.K., announced plans on Dec. 12 to coordinate efforts to add funds to the banking system to alleviate the credit squeeze stemming from sub prime mortgages.
MCX Gold Feb (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies have turned bullish; will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are increasing from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 18-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Gold Feb: Buy at 10340-330 for the target f 10380 and 10435 with stop loss at 10280
MCX Silver Mar (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies have turned bullish; will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are increasing from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 18-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Silver March: Buy at 19050-19000 for the target o 19180 and 19360 with stop loss at 18910
The dollar fell on Friday against 15 of the 16 most-active currencies. Investment in the StreetTracks Gold Trust, an exchange-traded fund backed by bullion, has climbed to a record 617 metric tons.
Gold also climbed on Friday on demand for a hedge against inflation, the U.S. Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation accelerated, a report by the Commerce Department showed.
The Fed, the European Central Bank along with central banks in Canada, Switzerland and the U.K., announced plans on Dec. 12 to coordinate efforts to add funds to the banking system to alleviate the credit squeeze stemming from sub prime mortgages.
MCX Gold Feb (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies have turned bullish; will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are increasing from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 18-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Gold Feb: Buy at 10340-330 for the target f 10380 and 10435 with stop loss at 10280
MCX Silver Mar (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies have turned bullish; will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are increasing from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 18-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Silver March: Buy at 19050-19000 for the target o 19180 and 19360 with stop loss at 18910
Friday, December 21, 2007
Christmas and New Year Holiday Schedule
CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY SCHEDULE
Monday, 24th December 2007
CY Time (GMT+2)
Spot:
Forex closing at 00:00
Gold closing at 00:00
Silver closing at 00:00
Futures:
Futures Currencies closing at 20:15
Fut. Gold closing at 00:00
& Silver closing at 00:00
Energies closing at 00:00
Coffee ‘C’ closed
Equity Indexes:
S&P, Nasdaq closing at 20:15
Dow-Jones closing at 20:30
CFDs closing at 20:00
Tuesday, 25th December 2007 – Christmas Day
CY Time (GMT+2)
Spot:
Forex closed
Gold closed
Silver closed
Futures:
Futures Currencies closed
Fut.Gold closed
& Silver closed
Energies closed
Coffee ‘C’ closed
Equity Indexes:
S&P, Nasdaq closed
Dow-Jones closed
CFDs closed
Wednesday, 26th December 2007
CY Time (GMT+2)
Spot:
Forex opening at 01:00
Gold opening at 02:00
Silver opening at 02:00
Futures:
Futures Currencies opening at 13:00
Fut.Gold opening at 14:15
& Silver opening at 14:15
Energies opening at 01:00
Coffee ‘C’ closed
Equity Indexes:
S&P, Nasdaq opening at 13:00
Dow-Jones opening at 14:15
CFDs opening at 16:30
NEW YEAR HOLIDAY SCHEDULE
Monday, 31st December 2007
CY Time (GMT+2)
Spot:
Forex closing at 23:30
Gold closing at 23:30
Silver closing at 23:30
Futures:
Futures Currencies closing at 23:00
Fut.Gold closing at 23:30
& Silver closing at 23:30
Energies closing at 23:30
Coffee ‘C’ closing at 19:30
Equity Indexes:
S&P, Nasdaq closing at 23:15
Dow-Jones closing at 23:30
CFDs closing at 23:00
Tuesday, 1st January 2008 – New Years’ Day
CY Time (GMT+2)
Spot:
Forex closed
Gold closed
Silver closed
Futures:
Futures Currencies closed
Fut.Gold closed
& Silver closed
Energies closed
Coffee ‘C’ closed
Equity Indexes:
S&P, Nasdaq closed
Dow-Jones closed
CFDs closed
Wednesday, 2nd January 2008
CY Time (GMT+2)
Spot:
Forex opening 01:00
Gold opening 02:00
Silver opening 02:00
Futures:
Futures Currencies opening 01:00
Fut.Gold opening 02:15
& Silver opening 02:15
Energies opening 01:00
Coffee ‘C’ opening 15:30
MCXARUN
9994500540
S&P, Nasdaq opening 01:00
Dow-Jones opening 02:15
CFDs opening 16:30
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