precious metals

COMEX Gold:

Gold trading is weaker in ACCESS trade this morning extending the prior sessions weaker close. Trend indicators have moved from a bullish to a neutral price pattern.

TREND INDICATORS:

Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. Furthermore the markets trend has changed direction since the previous session. The slope of the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session indicating weakness. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bearish bias.

Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices cross below this moving average. However, despite prices trading below the moving average line, the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session. If prices trade above the moving average then the trend will be clearly established as up. However, this weakness in the price will need to be watched. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a weak bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is falling, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. However, the weak ADX indicates that the current trend is deteriorating and may possibly reverse. Look for choppiness ahead.

MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bearish territory. However, the recent upturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term rally over the next few days.

RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 50.16). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 50.16 the market is somewhat overbought. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of weakness from this indicator before getting too bearish here.

VOLATILITY INDICATORS:

Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating oversold prices. Despite this oversold condition the market may become more oversold before turning higher. As a result, the market will look for additional strength in prices before turning bullish on this indicator.

RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:

848.00 - Highest High in last 50-Days
830.63 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
822.80 - Highest High in last 10-Days
819.45 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
807.60 - High
806.71 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
805.40 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
805.26 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
803.40 - Last Price
802.30 - Low
797.65 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
797.11 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
789.60 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
785.93 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
751.90 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
749.00 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
710.74 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average

COMEX Silver:

Silver futures are weaker this morning reversing the firmer tone seen during the prior session. Trend indicators are indicating a bearish market and the overall strength of the trend is strong, as indicated by the ADX. Momentum readings are also bearish. However, the recent upturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term rally over the next few days and should be watched.

TREND INDICATORS:

Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session indicating further weakness. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bearish bias.

Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session indicating further weakness. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bearish bias.

Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. However, despite prices trading below the moving average line, the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session. If prices trade above the moving average then the trend will be clearly established as up. However, this weakness in the price will need to be watched. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a weak bullish bias.

ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is rising, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. As the ADX is rising it indicates that the current trend is strong and should remain intact. Look for the current trend to continue.

MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bearish territory. However, the recent upturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term rally over the next few days.

RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 44.22). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 44.22 the market is somewhat oversold. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of strength from this indicator before getting too bullish here.

VOLATILITY INDICATORS:

Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating oversold prices. Volatility also appears to be increasing, as evidenced by a larger distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions. Despite this oversold condition the market may become more oversold before turning higher. As a result, the market will look for additional strength in prices before turning bullish on this indicator.

RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:

16.275 - Highest High in last 50-Days
15.097 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
14.975 - Highest High in last 10-Days
14.781 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
14.466 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
14.416 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
14.376 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
14.290 - High
14.172 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
14.150 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
14.130 - Last Price
14.110 - Low
13.834 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
13.740 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
13.628 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
13.457 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
13.325 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days

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energy signal

Crude Oil:

Front month crude oil is higher in ACCESS trade this morning extending the prior sessions gains. Trend indicators are indicating a bearish market. However the overall strength of the trend, as indicated by the ADX, is weak and should be watched as a result. MACD also has issued a bullish signal, suggesting a reversal in the current trend.

TREND INDICATORS:

Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session indicating further weakness. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bearish bias.

Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices cross above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is falling, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. However, the weak ADX indicates that the current trend is deteriorating and may possibly reverse. Look for choppiness ahead.

MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: MACD has issued a bullish signal, as the signal line has crossed above the True MACD. With the current long term trend, based on a 50 day simple moving average, to the upside, this suggests that prices will continue to rise for a time.

RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 51.58). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 51.58 the market is somewhat overbought. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of weakness from this indicator before getting too bearish here.

VOLATILITY INDICATORS:

Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Volatility also appears to be decreasing, as evidenced by a smaller distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions.

RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:

99.29 - Highest High in last 50-Days
97.03 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
94.85 - Highest High in last 10-Days
94.12 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
92.19 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
92.19 - High
91.93 - Last Price
91.77 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
91.26 - Low
91.08 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
90.84 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
88.31 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
87.07 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
85.41 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
84.09 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
82.69 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
75.35 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average

Natural Gas:

Natural Gas contracts are weaker this morning reversing the firmer tone seen during the prior session. Trend indicators are indicating a bearish market. However the overall strength of the trend, as indicated by the ADX, is weak and should be watched as a result. Momentum readings are also bearish. However, the recent upturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term rally over the next few days and should be watched.

TREND INDICATORS:

Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. However, despite prices trading above the moving average line, the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session. If prices trade below the moving average then the trend will be clearly established as up. However, this strength in the price will need to be watched. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a weak bearish bias.

Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session indicating further weakness. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bearish bias.

Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. However, even though prices are trading below the moving average, the moving average slope is up from the previous session. Should prices continue lower the moving average will eventually follow and then the down trend will be more clearly established. However, this strength in the moving average will need to be watched. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a weak bearish bias.

ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is falling, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is down. However, the weak ADX indicates that the current trend is deteriorating and may possibly reverse. Look for a choppiness ahead.

MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bearish territory. However, the recent upturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term rally over the next few days.

RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 45.49). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 45.49 the market is somewhat oversold. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of strength from this indicator before getting too bullish here.

VOLATILITY INDICATORS:

Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating oversold prices. Despite this oversold condition the market may become more oversold before turning higher. As a result, the market will look for additional strength in prices before turning bullish on this indicator.

RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:

8.712 - Highest High in last 50-Days
7.752 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
7.529 - Highest High in last 10-Days
7.520 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
7.506 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
7.365 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
7.175 - High
7.166 - Last Price
7.162 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
7.149 - Low
7.142 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
7.125 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
7.058 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
6.933 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
6.914 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
6.827 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
6.640 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days

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chart

this is mcx gold daily chart, that color lines (white ,yellow, red,....)work as support and resist
click the chart for enlarge


this is mcx silver daily chart, that color lines (white ,yellow, red,....)work as support and resist



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base metals

Base metals advanced on LME and MCX as market participants cover short ahead of the holiday week. While market again came down due to weak ness in dollar as fresh economic data pushed US dollar down, LME will be closed from 24th-26th December for Christmas.

China raised interest rates for the sixth time this year to try to cool an economy that's growing more than twice the pace of the U.S., the second-biggest buyer of copper.

Chinese demand increased more than a third in the first nine months, the World Bureau of Metal Statistics said.

World Bureau of metal Statistics [WBMS] recorded a surplus of 60,000 metric tonnes in global zinc market in the first ten months of the year.

India's Hindustan Zinc has lowered the prices of its zinc products while lead prices were kept unchanged.

Zinc prices were slashed by Rs.4,600/tonne(4.3%) to Rs.1,03,600/tonne whereas Lead product prices were unchanged at Rs.113,900/tonne.

World crude steel production in November was 109 million metric tons among members of the International Iron and Steel Institute, up 4% on the year, the IISI said Thursday. A total of 67 countries report to the IISI, which represents approximately 180 steel producers and around 75% of the world's steel output.Total world production in the first eleven months of the year was 1.21 billion tons, an increase of 7.7% over the same period of 2006, IISI said.


MCX Copper Feb (Daily Chart)



Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from over bought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 18-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Copper Feb: Buy at 261-263 for the target of 266.8 and 269 with stop loss at 256.70



MCX Zinc Dec (Daily Chart)

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are increasing from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 18-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Zinc Dec: buy at 90.55 for the target of 91.85 and 92.90 with stop loss at 89.50



MCX Nickel Dec (Daily Chart)

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 18-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Nickel Dec: buy at 1040-46 for the target of 1060 and 1080 with stop loss at 1026



MCX Lead Dec (Daily Chart)

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are on hold from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 18-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Lead Dec: Buy at 102.50-103 for the target of 104.90 and 106 with stop loss at 101.40

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energy

MCX crude moved further ahead today moving in line with the upturn movement on international exchange. Also rupee shed some of the early gains noted against the US dollar.

Nymex crude has weakened in last few days on concerns that fall out from US subprime market crisis to larger economy will affect economic growth and thereby oil demand. Meanwhile, in a bid to ease global credit concerns, that is threatening slowdown in global economy, many central banks this week injected funds in the market.

Global oil demand has been supported by robust growth in developing nations like China and India. China is the second biggest oil consumer coming after the US. In a bid to prevent economic overheating and broad based inflation, China said today that it will raise benchmark one year deposit and lending rates for the sixth time this year.

Weekly Inventory

The U.S. Department of Energy said that underground supplies of natural gas were down 121 billion cubic feet last week to 3.173 trillion cubic feet. Supplies are now down slightly from a year ago and up 9% from the five-year average. February natural gas is steady.

MCX Crude Oil Jan (Daily Chart)

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day and 18 days moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative. Over all technical suggest a bullish market and prices are expected to go further up.

Recommendations:

MCX Crude Oil Jan: Buy at 3590-80 for target of 3660 and 3715 with stop loss below 3535

MCX Natural gas Jan (Daily Chart)

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day and 18 days moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative. Over all technical suggest a bullish market and prices are expected to go further up.

Recommendations:

MCX Natural Gas Jan: buy at 285-286 for the target of 289.1 and 293 with stop loss at 282

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Bullion

Gold declined on Thursday as weakness in US stocks and strong dollar pressured the prices. The volume of trade remained low ahead of holidays. Gold futures for February delivery at COMEX shed $8 to close the session below $800 an ounce. The contract saw the highs of $807.60 an ounce during the session.

Gold was unable to sustain at higher levels despite the fact that Job less Claim data came positive for the prices. Investors sold the metal to book profits from a rally in the metal this year. Silver and platinum also dropped.

Any declines in gold will remain a chance to bargain hunting f bargain hunting as some investors seek a haven from concerns about the health of the banking system after the collapse of the U.S. subprime-mortgage market.

Gold will likely trade in a USD790-USD815/oz range for the next few sessions but has good potential to rally in the new year, when traders return to their desks as gold is still having a potential to go up on major concern over US Dollar.

MCX Gold Feb
Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from over bought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 18-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Gold Feb: buy at 10220-230 for the target of 10275 and 10318 with stop loss at 10181

MCX Silver Mar
Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from over bought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 18-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Silver March: buy 50% at 18850 &more @ 18680 for the target of 19071 and 19220 with stop loss at 18500


The U.S. Commerce Department said that U.S. GDP was up an annual rate of 4.9% in the third quarter, the best performance in four years. From one year ago, real GDP was up 2.8% in the third quarter, the same as last month's estimate.

The Conference Board said today that the index of leading indicators were down .4% in November with three of the ten indicators showing positive gains.

The U.S. Labor Department said that jobless claims were up 12,000 last week to 346,000.

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