chart

this is mcx gold daily chart, that color lines (white ,yellow, red,....)work as support and resist
click the chart for enlarge


this is mcx silver daily chart, that color lines (white ,yellow, red,....)work as support and resist



MCXARUN
9994500540

base metals

Base metals advanced on LME and MCX as market participants cover short ahead of the holiday week. While market again came down due to weak ness in dollar as fresh economic data pushed US dollar down, LME will be closed from 24th-26th December for Christmas.

China raised interest rates for the sixth time this year to try to cool an economy that's growing more than twice the pace of the U.S., the second-biggest buyer of copper.

Chinese demand increased more than a third in the first nine months, the World Bureau of Metal Statistics said.

World Bureau of metal Statistics [WBMS] recorded a surplus of 60,000 metric tonnes in global zinc market in the first ten months of the year.

India's Hindustan Zinc has lowered the prices of its zinc products while lead prices were kept unchanged.

Zinc prices were slashed by Rs.4,600/tonne(4.3%) to Rs.1,03,600/tonne whereas Lead product prices were unchanged at Rs.113,900/tonne.

World crude steel production in November was 109 million metric tons among members of the International Iron and Steel Institute, up 4% on the year, the IISI said Thursday. A total of 67 countries report to the IISI, which represents approximately 180 steel producers and around 75% of the world's steel output.Total world production in the first eleven months of the year was 1.21 billion tons, an increase of 7.7% over the same period of 2006, IISI said.


MCX Copper Feb (Daily Chart)



Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from over bought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 18-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Copper Feb: Buy at 261-263 for the target of 266.8 and 269 with stop loss at 256.70



MCX Zinc Dec (Daily Chart)

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are increasing from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 18-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Zinc Dec: buy at 90.55 for the target of 91.85 and 92.90 with stop loss at 89.50



MCX Nickel Dec (Daily Chart)

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 18-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Nickel Dec: buy at 1040-46 for the target of 1060 and 1080 with stop loss at 1026



MCX Lead Dec (Daily Chart)

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are on hold from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 18-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Lead Dec: Buy at 102.50-103 for the target of 104.90 and 106 with stop loss at 101.40

MCXARUN
9994500540

energy

MCX crude moved further ahead today moving in line with the upturn movement on international exchange. Also rupee shed some of the early gains noted against the US dollar.

Nymex crude has weakened in last few days on concerns that fall out from US subprime market crisis to larger economy will affect economic growth and thereby oil demand. Meanwhile, in a bid to ease global credit concerns, that is threatening slowdown in global economy, many central banks this week injected funds in the market.

Global oil demand has been supported by robust growth in developing nations like China and India. China is the second biggest oil consumer coming after the US. In a bid to prevent economic overheating and broad based inflation, China said today that it will raise benchmark one year deposit and lending rates for the sixth time this year.

Weekly Inventory

The U.S. Department of Energy said that underground supplies of natural gas were down 121 billion cubic feet last week to 3.173 trillion cubic feet. Supplies are now down slightly from a year ago and up 9% from the five-year average. February natural gas is steady.

MCX Crude Oil Jan (Daily Chart)

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day and 18 days moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative. Over all technical suggest a bullish market and prices are expected to go further up.

Recommendations:

MCX Crude Oil Jan: Buy at 3590-80 for target of 3660 and 3715 with stop loss below 3535

MCX Natural gas Jan (Daily Chart)

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day and 18 days moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative. Over all technical suggest a bullish market and prices are expected to go further up.

Recommendations:

MCX Natural Gas Jan: buy at 285-286 for the target of 289.1 and 293 with stop loss at 282

MCXARUN

Bullion

Gold declined on Thursday as weakness in US stocks and strong dollar pressured the prices. The volume of trade remained low ahead of holidays. Gold futures for February delivery at COMEX shed $8 to close the session below $800 an ounce. The contract saw the highs of $807.60 an ounce during the session.

Gold was unable to sustain at higher levels despite the fact that Job less Claim data came positive for the prices. Investors sold the metal to book profits from a rally in the metal this year. Silver and platinum also dropped.

Any declines in gold will remain a chance to bargain hunting f bargain hunting as some investors seek a haven from concerns about the health of the banking system after the collapse of the U.S. subprime-mortgage market.

Gold will likely trade in a USD790-USD815/oz range for the next few sessions but has good potential to rally in the new year, when traders return to their desks as gold is still having a potential to go up on major concern over US Dollar.

MCX Gold Feb
Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from over bought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 18-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Gold Feb: buy at 10220-230 for the target of 10275 and 10318 with stop loss at 10181

MCX Silver Mar
Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from over bought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 18-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Silver March: buy 50% at 18850 &more @ 18680 for the target of 19071 and 19220 with stop loss at 18500


The U.S. Commerce Department said that U.S. GDP was up an annual rate of 4.9% in the third quarter, the best performance in four years. From one year ago, real GDP was up 2.8% in the third quarter, the same as last month's estimate.

The Conference Board said today that the index of leading indicators were down .4% in November with three of the ten indicators showing positive gains.

The U.S. Labor Department said that jobless claims were up 12,000 last week to 346,000.

MCXARUN

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MCXARUN

outlook

February gold closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates below the 20-day moving average crossing at 808.10. The low-range
close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible near-term. Closes above last Wednesday's high crossing at 822.80 are needed to renew the rally off
November's low. If February renews last week's decline, November's low crossing at 780.40 is the next downside target. From
a broad perspective, February gold needs to close above 855.00 or below 780.40 to confirm a breakout of the late-fall trading
range and point the direction of the next trending move. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 808.10 then
last Wednesday's high crossing at 822.80. First support is Monday's low crossing at 789.60 then the reaction low crossing at
783.00.

March silver closed higher on Thursday and as it extended this week's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to
higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that a short-term low might be forming. Closes
above the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.476 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below
Monday's low crossing at 13.740 would open the door for a possible test of October's low crossing at 13.360 later this winter.
First resistance is today's high crossing at 14.450 then the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.476. First support is
Monday's low crossing at 13.740 then October's low crossing at 13.360.

March copper closed slightly higher on Thursday as it extended this week's short covering rally. Profit taking tempered early
gains and the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and
are turning bullish signaling that a double bottom with November's low might be forming. Closes above the 20-day moving
average crossing at 302.70 would confirm that a double bottom has been posted. If March renews this month's decline, weekly
support crossing at 273.76 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 301.70 then the 20-day
moving average crossing at 302.70. First support is Monday's low crossing at 287.75 then weekly support crossing at 273.76.

February crude oil posted an inside day with a slightly lower close on Thursday as it consolidates above the 25% retracement
level of the August-November rally crossing at 90.65. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday.
Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February
renews last week's rally, the reaction high crossing at .9660 is the next upside target. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at
89.15 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. A close below the reaction low crossing at .8560 would renew
the decline off November's high. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 93.00. Second resistance is last Wednesday's
high crossing at 94.72. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 89.15 then the 38% retracement level of this year's rally
crossing at 86.67.

January Henry natural gas closed lower on Thursday ending a three-day short covering bounce. The mid-range close sets the
stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are
possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.317 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has
been posted. If January renews the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 6.801 is the next downside target.
First resistance is today's high crossing at 7.250 then the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.317. First support is Monday's
low crossing at 6.914 then weekly support crossing at 6.801.

GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS

Traders will either square off their positions or go long in precious metals, base metals and energies before they go on Christmas and New Year vacations. The current market circumstance is not the one of going short before vacations. There is uncertainty and nervousness on global economic performance in the first quarter of 2008 which will result in investors going long rather than short. Year end window dressing by fund managers and subsequent position building in futures as well as options markets will add to market movement.

Markets are filled with speculation that the bank of Japan may cut interest rates in the first quarter of 2008. Japanese interest rates are already near zero. If they make it to zero, then yen will get weaker and test 117 and gold, silver and emerging equities will zoom. Gold has performed exceedingly well in December so far despite sharp gains in the US dollar and should keep its momentum in 2008.

Interest rate cuts are no solution to growth. Flooding the markets with paper money, ensuring higher valuations for penny stocks which everybody would kick aside under normal circumstances would lead to an even greater bubble over the coming years which should happen from 2010. Global central banks policy of inducing growth through interest rates cuts will backfire. The end result gold and only gold will glitter.

GOLD -- FEBRURAY FUTURE

As long as gold holds $795 the downside will be limited and it will once again target $809 and $814. Falls below $795 bring $790 and $784.

Merry Christmas.-MCXARUN