February gold closed lower on Wednesday ending a two-day short covering rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady
to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that a double bottom with November's low
appears to be forming. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 810.20 would confirm that a short-term low has
been posted. If December extends last week's decline, November's low crossing at 780.40 is the next downside target. First
resistance is today's high crossing at 813.00 then the reaction high crossing at 844.20. First support is Monday's low crossing
at 783.00 then November's low crossing at 780.40.
March silver closed lower on Wednesday ending a two-day correction. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening
on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near.
Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.754 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If
March extends last month's decline, the reaction low crossing at 13.500 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-
day moving average crossing at 14.559 then the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.754. First support is Monday's low
crossing at 13.960 then the reaction low crossing at 13.500.
January crude oil closed lower on Wednesday and below the 38% retracement level of this fall's rally crossing at .8741 as it
extends last week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the
RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends
the decline, the 50% retracement level of this fall's rally crossing at .8374 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day
moving average crossing at 93.28 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 25% retracement level
crossing at 91.51. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 92.32. First support is Monday's low crossing at
87.14 then the 50% retracement level crossing at .8374.
January Henry natural gas closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of this week's decline but remains below broken
support marked by September's low crossing at 7.561. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday.
Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-
term. If January extends the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 6.801 is the next downside target. Closes
above the 10-day moving average crossing at 7.545 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the
10-day moving average crossing at 7.545 then the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.849. First support is Monday's low
crossing at 7.038 then weekly support crossing at 6.801.
Thursday, December 6, 2007
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
The Bank of England may come up with a surprise interest rate cut today while the European central bank is expected to continue with its neutral approach and is not expected to give any signals of an interest rate cut in the near future. We expect the Fed to cut discount rates by quarter of a percentage along with interest rates next week, which will start a new phase of US dollar bashing. If the Fed cuts discount rates by quarter of a percentage gold will easily edge past $850 and near $900 as long as $770 holds. Fed cuts will also be bullish for equities and base metals.
As far as base metals are concerned, their inability to edge higher has resulted in more shorts getting created than longs. 2008 is the year of interest rate cuts. Global most of the central banks apart from the Fed will cut interest rates whether in the first half or second half. Interest rate cuts will stimulate retail demand, which will be bullish for base metals. There are concerns that China may have a soft landing in 2008 which may not happen. The Olympics are in China next year. The German economy started picking up after the soccer world cup. Historically there are other instances as well. Chinese GDP is expected to grow over ten percent in 2008. Base metals demand is expected to remain firm and most of them will be able to near 2007 highs.
SILVER -- MARCH FUTURE
Silver needs to break $1474 for $1519. On the lower side as long as $1424 and $1392 are holding downside will be limited
As far as base metals are concerned, their inability to edge higher has resulted in more shorts getting created than longs. 2008 is the year of interest rate cuts. Global most of the central banks apart from the Fed will cut interest rates whether in the first half or second half. Interest rate cuts will stimulate retail demand, which will be bullish for base metals. There are concerns that China may have a soft landing in 2008 which may not happen. The Olympics are in China next year. The German economy started picking up after the soccer world cup. Historically there are other instances as well. Chinese GDP is expected to grow over ten percent in 2008. Base metals demand is expected to remain firm and most of them will be able to near 2007 highs.
SILVER -- MARCH FUTURE
Silver needs to break $1474 for $1519. On the lower side as long as $1424 and $1392 are holding downside will be limited
Wednesday, December 5, 2007
Medium-term Outlook (Spot Gold)
Gold prices are expected to trade within the range $837 - $770. Breaking of either level may decide the direction. $801 may act as the major resistance followed by $824 and $836. Supports are $754 and $744.
Oil prices drifted lower yesterday. Traders are awaiting the OPEC decision regarding increasing the output. Even though a raise in output is widely expected, the signals from the member countries have been mixed of late especially after the sharp decline in prices in the past week.
The latest oil inventory update from US Energy Department is expected later today.
Crude oil January in NYMEX traded in the range $89.98 - $87.34 and closed at $88.07 ($89.31).
Last day, MCX gold February opened at 10161, traded in the range of Rs 10107 – Rs 10309 and closed at Rs 10286 per 10 gram.
Copper February in MCX opened at 270.00, traded in the range 270.00 – 261.55 and closed at Rs 265.05 per kg.
Oil prices drifted lower yesterday. Traders are awaiting the OPEC decision regarding increasing the output. Even though a raise in output is widely expected, the signals from the member countries have been mixed of late especially after the sharp decline in prices in the past week.
The latest oil inventory update from US Energy Department is expected later today.
Crude oil January in NYMEX traded in the range $89.98 - $87.34 and closed at $88.07 ($89.31).
Last day, MCX gold February opened at 10161, traded in the range of Rs 10107 – Rs 10309 and closed at Rs 10286 per 10 gram.
Copper February in MCX opened at 270.00, traded in the range 270.00 – 261.55 and closed at Rs 265.05 per kg.
Technicals – MCX (Intra day calls)
CRUDE OIL (December) BULLISH ABOVE 3496BEARISH BELOW 3481
GOLD (February) BULLISH ABOVE 10264 BEARISH BELOW 10230
SILVER (March) BULLISH ABOVE 19120 BEARISH BELOW 19038
COPPER (February) BULLISH ABOVE 265.70 BEARISH BELOW265
LEAD (December) BULLISH ABOVE 114.40 BEARISH BELOW 114
NICKEL (December) BULLISH ABOVE 1035 BEARISH BELOW 1030
ZINC (December) BULLISH ABOVE 96.30BEARISH BELOW 95.90
GOLD (February) BULLISH ABOVE 10264 BEARISH BELOW 10230
SILVER (March) BULLISH ABOVE 19120 BEARISH BELOW 19038
COPPER (February) BULLISH ABOVE 265.70 BEARISH BELOW265
LEAD (December) BULLISH ABOVE 114.40 BEARISH BELOW 114
NICKEL (December) BULLISH ABOVE 1035 BEARISH BELOW 1030
ZINC (December) BULLISH ABOVE 96.30BEARISH BELOW 95.90
OPEC production increase doubtful
By Alan Fein
(AXcess News) New York - A production increase by OPEC ministers is growing doubtful according to sources in Abu Dhabi were the cartel's ministers are set to meet tomorrow. Still, futures prices in New York continued moving lower by midday with crude oil down $1.81 a barrel.
A spokesperson for the cartel told AXcess News affiliate, EU News Network, that there was plenty of oil available but that buyers were not lining up to take it, suggesting that supplies were adequate and that because there was no demand the OPEC ministers were most likely not going to raise production output tomorrow when they meet in Abu Dhabi.
OPEC's basket price of twelve crudes stood at $84.28 a barrel Monday, down $1.63.
While OPEC's ministers are less likely to increase oil production, most agree that the housing collapse in the United States has added to the slowdown in demand for energy. But at the same time, Middle Eastern investors are moving into the US market to buy stock in the financial sector. Cheaper oil is not expected to help curb investor sentiment towards the financial sector and this morning stocks moved lower as a result.
But despite the collapse of the US subprime mortgage market oil ministers are concerned over the US economy overall and are keeping an eye on consumer spending. Saudi Arabia, which is OPEC's largest producer, has not said whether it will recommend increasing production levels tomorrow when the cartel meets, though last week Saudi Arabia's oil minister did say that was pumping more oil now than ever before while he was in Singapore.
Earlier today, Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi told reporters in Abu Dhabi that "all options are open".
(AXcess News) New York - A production increase by OPEC ministers is growing doubtful according to sources in Abu Dhabi were the cartel's ministers are set to meet tomorrow. Still, futures prices in New York continued moving lower by midday with crude oil down $1.81 a barrel.
A spokesperson for the cartel told AXcess News affiliate, EU News Network, that there was plenty of oil available but that buyers were not lining up to take it, suggesting that supplies were adequate and that because there was no demand the OPEC ministers were most likely not going to raise production output tomorrow when they meet in Abu Dhabi.
OPEC's basket price of twelve crudes stood at $84.28 a barrel Monday, down $1.63.
While OPEC's ministers are less likely to increase oil production, most agree that the housing collapse in the United States has added to the slowdown in demand for energy. But at the same time, Middle Eastern investors are moving into the US market to buy stock in the financial sector. Cheaper oil is not expected to help curb investor sentiment towards the financial sector and this morning stocks moved lower as a result.
But despite the collapse of the US subprime mortgage market oil ministers are concerned over the US economy overall and are keeping an eye on consumer spending. Saudi Arabia, which is OPEC's largest producer, has not said whether it will recommend increasing production levels tomorrow when the cartel meets, though last week Saudi Arabia's oil minister did say that was pumping more oil now than ever before while he was in Singapore.
Earlier today, Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi told reporters in Abu Dhabi that "all options are open".
outlook
February gold closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of last week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a
steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices
are possible near-term. If December extends last week's decline, November's low crossing at 780.40 is the next downside
target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 812.30 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First
resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 810.60 then the 20-day moving average crossing at 812.30. First support is
Monday's low crossing at 783.00 then November's low crossing at 780.40.
March silver closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of last Friday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a
steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a
short-term low might be in or is near. If March extends last month's decline, the reaction low crossing at 13.500 is the next
downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.811 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has
been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 14.582 then the 20-day moving average crossing at
14.811. First support is Monday's low crossing at 13.960 then the reaction low crossing at 13.500.
January crude oil closed lower on Tuesday as it extended last week's decline and tested the 38% retracement level of this fall's
rally crossing at .8741. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are
oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends this week's
decline, the 50% retracement level of this fall's rally crossing at .8374 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day
moving average crossing at 93.64 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 25% retracement level
crossing at 91.51. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 93.64. First support is Monday's low crossing at
87.14 then the 50% retracement level crossing at .8374.
January Henry natural gas closed lower on Tuesday as it extended last week's decline below September's low crossing at 7.561.
A short covering rally tempered early losses and the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday.
Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-
term. If January extends this week's decline, weekly support crossing at 6.801 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-
day moving average crossing at 7.613 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day
moving average crossing at 7.613 then the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.890. First support is Monday's low crossing at
7.038 then weekly support crossing at 6.801.
MCXARUN
steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices
are possible near-term. If December extends last week's decline, November's low crossing at 780.40 is the next downside
target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 812.30 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First
resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 810.60 then the 20-day moving average crossing at 812.30. First support is
Monday's low crossing at 783.00 then November's low crossing at 780.40.
March silver closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of last Friday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a
steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a
short-term low might be in or is near. If March extends last month's decline, the reaction low crossing at 13.500 is the next
downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.811 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has
been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 14.582 then the 20-day moving average crossing at
14.811. First support is Monday's low crossing at 13.960 then the reaction low crossing at 13.500.
January crude oil closed lower on Tuesday as it extended last week's decline and tested the 38% retracement level of this fall's
rally crossing at .8741. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are
oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends this week's
decline, the 50% retracement level of this fall's rally crossing at .8374 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day
moving average crossing at 93.64 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 25% retracement level
crossing at 91.51. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 93.64. First support is Monday's low crossing at
87.14 then the 50% retracement level crossing at .8374.
January Henry natural gas closed lower on Tuesday as it extended last week's decline below September's low crossing at 7.561.
A short covering rally tempered early losses and the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday.
Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-
term. If January extends this week's decline, weekly support crossing at 6.801 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-
day moving average crossing at 7.613 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day
moving average crossing at 7.613 then the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.890. First support is Monday's low crossing at
7.038 then weekly support crossing at 6.801.
MCXARUN
today's datas
expect last
Dec 5 00:01 U K Nationwide Consumer Confidence (Nov) 94 98
00:30 Aus Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (3Q) 1.0% 0.9%
00:30 Aus Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (3Q) 4.8% 4.3%
02:00 New Ze ANZ Commodity Price (Nov) 1.8%
08:30 Euro Monetary Union ECB's Trichet Speaks
08:55 Ger Purchasing Manager Index Services (Nov) 53.5 55.1
09:00 Euro Monetary Union Purchasing Manager 53.7 55.8
09:30 U K Purchasing Manager Index Services (Nov) 52.9 53.1
10:00 Euro Monetary Union Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) -0.3% 0.3%
10:00 Euro Monetary Union Retail Sales (YoY) (Oct) 1.2% 1.6%
10:30 U K BRC Shop Price Index (MoM) (Nov) 0.5%
10:30 U K BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (Nov) 1.1%
12:00 U S MBA Mortgage Applications (Nov 30) -4.3%
13:15 U S ADP Employment Change (Nov) 53K 106
13:30 U S Nonfarm Productivity (3Q) 5.6% 4.9%
13:30 U S Unit Labor Costs (3Q) -1.0% 1.4%
15:00 U S Factory Orders (Oct) 0% 0.2%
15:00 U S ISM Non-Manufacturing (Nov) 55.0 55.8
20:00 N Z RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 8.25% 8.25%
MCXARUN
Dec 5 00:01 U K Nationwide Consumer Confidence (Nov) 94 98
00:30 Aus Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (3Q) 1.0% 0.9%
00:30 Aus Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (3Q) 4.8% 4.3%
02:00 New Ze ANZ Commodity Price (Nov) 1.8%
08:30 Euro Monetary Union ECB's Trichet Speaks
08:55 Ger Purchasing Manager Index Services (Nov) 53.5 55.1
09:00 Euro Monetary Union Purchasing Manager 53.7 55.8
09:30 U K Purchasing Manager Index Services (Nov) 52.9 53.1
10:00 Euro Monetary Union Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) -0.3% 0.3%
10:00 Euro Monetary Union Retail Sales (YoY) (Oct) 1.2% 1.6%
10:30 U K BRC Shop Price Index (MoM) (Nov) 0.5%
10:30 U K BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (Nov) 1.1%
12:00 U S MBA Mortgage Applications (Nov 30) -4.3%
13:15 U S ADP Employment Change (Nov) 53K 106
13:30 U S Nonfarm Productivity (3Q) 5.6% 4.9%
13:30 U S Unit Labor Costs (3Q) -1.0% 1.4%
15:00 U S Factory Orders (Oct) 0% 0.2%
15:00 U S ISM Non-Manufacturing (Nov) 55.0 55.8
20:00 N Z RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 8.25% 8.25%
MCXARUN
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
![[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/blogger_img_proxy/AEn0k_tAJXubi4huOSz5oEdR0EVKl2jha_m9sxXVK3uw9Wdd6dZhyRY6bJlua94PT1B23KvsWkw0rEJLazygrJc9_1thDBDrBnxwWsZ68zYS32_wrhvKjnjlKYBIYp0DpTR61mgK0Q=s0-d)
![[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/blogger_img_proxy/AEn0k_u4RQxqyQKIpzIjELgnM_MH6Es5araxaeC9PZB8sR7ChtPd-w4Nbe4E3TLXrkzIdXzBQjhPIvxn-4vY5KPOicLOgRsVeP8ZFcc2xEYjedcD9hvcq25etr121aYbBlGCJE34xqK7=s0-d)
![[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/blogger_img_proxy/AEn0k_tRDit9QypyxwFBIb7FPkmnMMQpbzESFdmIKnvu412IQvIuxUdF7M9HGqgmuumcrTTfFt9tMMoV6VoyHUZT9YJLCr5vE1I9gFN97K2xoAROcNwI74tL2SRRSCs=s0-d)
