Technicals – MCX (Intra day calls)

CRUDE OIL (December) BULLISH ABOVE 3496BEARISH BELOW 3481

GOLD (February) BULLISH ABOVE 10264 BEARISH BELOW 10230

SILVER (March) BULLISH ABOVE 19120 BEARISH BELOW 19038

COPPER (February) BULLISH ABOVE 265.70 BEARISH BELOW265

LEAD (December) BULLISH ABOVE 114.40 BEARISH BELOW 114

NICKEL (December) BULLISH ABOVE 1035 BEARISH BELOW 1030

ZINC (December) BULLISH ABOVE 96.30BEARISH BELOW 95.90

OPEC production increase doubtful

By Alan Fein

(AXcess News) New York - A production increase by OPEC ministers is growing doubtful according to sources in Abu Dhabi were the cartel's ministers are set to meet tomorrow. Still, futures prices in New York continued moving lower by midday with crude oil down $1.81 a barrel.

A spokesperson for the cartel told AXcess News affiliate, EU News Network, that there was plenty of oil available but that buyers were not lining up to take it, suggesting that supplies were adequate and that because there was no demand the OPEC ministers were most likely not going to raise production output tomorrow when they meet in Abu Dhabi.

OPEC's basket price of twelve crudes stood at $84.28 a barrel Monday, down $1.63.

While OPEC's ministers are less likely to increase oil production, most agree that the housing collapse in the United States has added to the slowdown in demand for energy. But at the same time, Middle Eastern investors are moving into the US market to buy stock in the financial sector. Cheaper oil is not expected to help curb investor sentiment towards the financial sector and this morning stocks moved lower as a result.

But despite the collapse of the US subprime mortgage market oil ministers are concerned over the US economy overall and are keeping an eye on consumer spending. Saudi Arabia, which is OPEC's largest producer, has not said whether it will recommend increasing production levels tomorrow when the cartel meets, though last week Saudi Arabia's oil minister did say that was pumping more oil now than ever before while he was in Singapore.

Earlier today, Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi told reporters in Abu Dhabi that "all options are open".

outlook

February gold closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of last week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a
steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices
are possible near-term. If December extends last week's decline, November's low crossing at 780.40 is the next downside
target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 812.30 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First
resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 810.60 then the 20-day moving average crossing at 812.30. First support is
Monday's low crossing at 783.00 then November's low crossing at 780.40.

March silver closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of last Friday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a
steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a
short-term low might be in or is near. If March extends last month's decline, the reaction low crossing at 13.500 is the next
downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.811 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has
been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 14.582 then the 20-day moving average crossing at
14.811. First support is Monday's low crossing at 13.960 then the reaction low crossing at 13.500.

January crude oil closed lower on Tuesday as it extended last week's decline and tested the 38% retracement level of this fall's
rally crossing at .8741. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are
oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends this week's
decline, the 50% retracement level of this fall's rally crossing at .8374 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day
moving average crossing at 93.64 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 25% retracement level
crossing at 91.51. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 93.64. First support is Monday's low crossing at
87.14 then the 50% retracement level crossing at .8374.

January Henry natural gas closed lower on Tuesday as it extended last week's decline below September's low crossing at 7.561.
A short covering rally tempered early losses and the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday.
Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-
term. If January extends this week's decline, weekly support crossing at 6.801 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-
day moving average crossing at 7.613 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day
moving average crossing at 7.613 then the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.890. First support is Monday's low crossing at
7.038 then weekly support crossing at 6.801.

MCXARUN

today's datas

expect last

Dec 5 00:01 U K Nationwide Consumer Confidence (Nov) 94 98
00:30 Aus Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (3Q) 1.0% 0.9%
00:30 Aus Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (3Q) 4.8% 4.3%
02:00 New Ze ANZ Commodity Price (Nov) 1.8%
08:30 Euro Monetary Union ECB's Trichet Speaks
08:55 Ger Purchasing Manager Index Services (Nov) 53.5 55.1
09:00 Euro Monetary Union Purchasing Manager 53.7 55.8
09:30 U K Purchasing Manager Index Services (Nov) 52.9 53.1
10:00 Euro Monetary Union Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) -0.3% 0.3%
10:00 Euro Monetary Union Retail Sales (YoY) (Oct) 1.2% 1.6%
10:30 U K BRC Shop Price Index (MoM) (Nov) 0.5%
10:30 U K BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (Nov) 1.1%
12:00 U S MBA Mortgage Applications (Nov 30) -4.3%
13:15 U S ADP Employment Change (Nov) 53K 106
13:30 U S Nonfarm Productivity (3Q) 5.6% 4.9%
13:30 U S Unit Labor Costs (3Q) -1.0% 1.4%
15:00 U S Factory Orders (Oct) 0% 0.2%
15:00 U S ISM Non-Manufacturing (Nov) 55.0 55.8
20:00 N Z RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 8.25% 8.25%

MCXARUN

Gold Short-term Uncertainty But Long-term Bullish

GOLD
After hitting its first two targets ($780 and $840) gold is taken a breather. The Aug to Nov rally has left behind it two more targets yet to come, the next at $915 and then to $1125. For those to stay valid gold must not give a bear signal on the long term P&F chart. At the present time, without any further ups and downs, that signal would come on a move to the $630 level, some distance away. However, I would expect the action to cause more ups and downs with a resulting higher reversal signal level. For now the P&F is still comfortably BULLISH, long term wise.



As for the usual charts and indicators, they also are comfortably inside their positive zones. The Index action is still well above a positive sloping long term moving average line and the momentum indicator is comfortably in its positive zone. However, and there is so often a however, the momentum indicator is giving us a warning of underlying weakness in the recent price action. Although gold is still above its low of a few weeks ago the momentum indicator has moved below its low previous levels. It is moving lower ahead of the price giving us a warning for the continuation of downside action. Now we know that nothing goes in one direction for long without some reversal action coming to play, but what the momentum is telling us at this point is that any reversal will be short lived. Volume is also a problem but I will cover it in the next section.

Despite the weakness this past week and the potential for more, the indicators require a BULLISH long term rating until validated otherwise.

INTERMEDIATE TERM
A nasty week but the price still has not breached the intermediate term moving average line, and the line is still pointing upward. As with two weeks ago the price seems to have stopped just above the line. As with the long term, the intermediate term momentum indicator is still comfortably above its neutral line but is showing warnings of weakness. The Friday close has the indicator just below its Mid-November low ahead of the price making a similar low. The momentum indicator is now where it was just at the start of the rally in early September.

The volume indicator is the one giving us the most trouble. November has seen the daily volume level consistently quite high, above the 100,000 mark almost every day. However, that volume did nothing for the price and the volume indicator is now plunging, indicating more and more of this volume is going to the down side. Not a good sign at all. With the moving average and momentum I would still be inclined to rate the intermediate term as bullish or at worst, + neutral but if we add in the activity of the volume then I must downgrade the rating to at best, NEUTRAL.

Oil Rises a Second Day on Signs OPEC May Leave Output Unchanged

By Sophie Tan and Gavin Evans

Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil gained for a second day in New York after rising from a five-week low yesterday on speculation OPEC members may keep output unchanged this week.

The oil market ``is very well supplied'' and doesn't need more production from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Libya's top oil official told reporters late yesterday. Twenty-three of 42 analysts, or 55 percent, expect the group to maintain output at current levels when they meet in Abu Dhabi tomorrow, according to a Bloomberg News survey.

``I don't think OPEC will raise production because there has been little supply-side geopolitical tensions,'' said Steve Rowles, an analyst with CFC Seymour Ltd. in Hong Kong. ``The U.S. inventory numbers out tomorrow could affect oil prices more.''

Crude oil for January delivery rose as much as 57 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $89.88 a barrel in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $89.72 at 1:22 p.m. in Singapore.

The contract rose 60 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $89.31 a barrel yesterday, a 9.6 percent slide from the record $99.29 reached on Nov. 21. Prices fell to $87.14 yesterday, the lowest since Oct. 24, after a report showed manufacturing in the U.S., the world's largest oil consumer, expanded at the slowest pace in 10 months in November.

Inventories

An Energy Department report tomorrow will probably show U.S. crude-oil stockpiles fell 900,000 barrels last week, based on the median estimate from a Bloomberg News survey of 10 analysts. Inventories held 313.2 million barrels on Nov. 23, or 3 percent more than the five-year average for the period.

Gasoline stockpiles probably gained 1.2 million barrels, while distillates, including heating oil and diesel, probably declined by 150,000 barrels, based on the survey.

Oil prices plunged last week after crude oil stockpiles fell less than forecast, even as refiners unexpectedly increased operating rates to a 10-week high. Analysts are picking refining rates rose to 89.5 percent, the fourth increase in five weeks.

``The market could be very volatile around some of these announcements,'' said Tom Hartmann, commodity broker at Altavest Worldwide Trading Inc. in Mission Viejo, California. ``The market really needs to get back above $90-$91 to have some sort of bullish footing again.''

Brent crude oil rose as much as 45 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $90.25 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange and traded at $90.20 at 1:12 p.m. Singapore time. Yesterday, it closed at a premium to the Nymex futures for the first time since July.

``Brent has been definitely the better performer'' in recent weeks,'' Altavest's Hartmann said. ``It could be some sort of bet on the dollar. The world is shifting to a different product as their standard.''

Refining Capacity

Oil refiners would be unable to absorb an increase in OPEC output because of constraints on the amount of crude they can turn into fuels, potentially causing prices to drop below $80 a barrel, Merrill Lynch & Co. said in a report e-mailed yesterday.

``The incremental supply of crude oil will likely exceed the market's ability to refine it'' because of limited growth in processing capacity, Merrill analysts led by Francisco Blanch said in the report.

Refiners have limited means to increase their cracking capacity, or the ability to turn more of the heavy oil typically produced by OPEC countries into lighter fuels such as gasoline and naphtha, according to Merrill. This constraint indicates additional OPEC supply may exceed demand.

Platinum Rises as Strike May Crimp South African Production

By Dave McCombs

Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Platinum futures gained for a fourth day in Asia as South Africa's biggest labor union started a nationwide strike to protest fatal mining accidents and the government said it would probe the industry's practices.

The government will check about 700 mines, Chief Inspector of Mines Thabo Gazi said yesterday. He declined to say when the process would start. South Africa supplies about 80 percent of the world's platinum.

``Whenever supply starts to tighten, the price will react,'' Jonathan Barratt, managing director of Commodity Broking Services in Sydney, said today by phone. ``Anytime there is news about mine strikes or shutdowns, you get fund managers dipping more into the market, and that's what you've got today.''

Platinum for October delivery rose 15 yen, or 0.3 percent, to close at 5,027 yen a gram ($1,418 an ounce) on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange.

The metal for immediate delivery rose to $1,461.75 an ounce, a 0.1 percent gain from late yesterday in New York. Palladium was 0.5 percent higher at $348 an ounce.

South Africa's Solidarity trade union spokesman Reint Dykema yesterday estimated the government's safety review may take between three months and a year.

Mining deaths in the country, the world's biggest producer of gold and platinum, have risen to 201 this year compared with a total of 199 for 2006, Solidarity said. The largest labor body, the National Union of Mineworkers, is holding a national one-day strike today to protest against what it has called a ``general lack of safety.''

Platinum has soared about 29 percent this year, compared with 24 percent for gold, on expectations demand for the metal's use in vehicle emissions filters and jewelry will grow faster than supplies.