U.S. crude futures fell below $51 yesterday and settled lower as demand worries after a government report showed the U.S. economy shrank more severely during the third quarter than initially estimated.
According to the U.S. Commerce Department, real GDP decreased at an annual rate of -.5% in the third quarter, down from the previous estimate of -.3%, as expected.
But on Monday crude oil closed in the green in line with the stock rally .Stocks rallied after the announcement of U.S governments rescue package for Citigroup .U.S. government agreed to inject $20 billion of new capital to rescue troubled Citigroup yesterday. Investors remain cautious due to concerns about a global recession; they welcomed the U.S. government's $300 billion-plus lifeline to prevent the collapse of the world's largest banking group
According to the International Energy Agency, the Oil prices will remain under downward pressure in 2009 as the weak global economy hits demand. And also a report says that the oil companies are booking tankers to store millions of barrels of crude oil at sea, waiting for demand and prices to rise.
All the oil traders are keeping their eyes to the OPEC meeting that will be held on Nov. 29 in Egypt and again on Dec. 17 in Algeria.
According to a monthly report from the American Petroleum Institutions the oil demand had dropped 5% from January through October -- marking their largest decline since the early 1980s,
As crude-oil prices has drooped more than 63% from their record high as the credit crunch deepened. Oil price had touched an all-time high of $147.27 a barrel on 11th July but has corrected from there in the succeeding weeks.
Light, sweet crude oil for December delivery in the New York Mercantile Exchange traded in the range $54.66-$50.52, and settled at $50.65 a barrel yesterday.
Weekly Crude Oil (DWTI dec.)
Weak movements expected below $48.20, otherwise expecting some recovery .Resistances are $51 $54.30, $58.80, Supports seen at $44.80, $40.20, and$ 35.
DWTI (DEC) traded in the range $53.85 - $50.60 and closed at $50.77
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
DGCX Crude (DEC) - Bullish above $51.20 bearish below $50.40
MCXARUN
9994500540
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
future gold outlook
U.S. gold futures declined from 6 weeks high and closed slightly lower as oil tumbled in the international market.
U.S. crude oil futures settled lower yesterday as demand worries after a government report showed the U.S. economy shrank more severely during the third quarter than initially estimated.
According to the U.S. Commerce Department, real GDP decreased at an annual rate of -.5% in the third quarter, down from the previous estimate of -.3%, as expected.
But the dollar continued its weakness against the major currencies yesterday as the expectation of diminished demand in dollar as safe heaven. New U.S. measures to boost consumer lending helped ease concerns about the financial crisis, and changed the view in dollar. The US GDP also influences the dollar movements.
According to the World Gold Council, Global demand for gold jumped 18 percent year-over-year to 1,133.4 tonnes in the third quarter, reversing a weaker trend earlier this year, because of strong buying by investors and a lower gold price.
International spot gold traded in the range $ 830.1– $ 801.80 a Troy Ounce and last quoted at $820.70
Weekly Outlook (DG. OCT.)
Continuation of the bullish movements expected above $816.Resistances are $829 $849, $869,913 Supports seen at $802, $771, $754.
Last day DGCX Gold FEB. Traded in the range $832.2-803 and closed at $ 816
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (FEB) - Bullish above $ 819.50 bearish below $814
MCXARUN
9994500540
U.S. crude oil futures settled lower yesterday as demand worries after a government report showed the U.S. economy shrank more severely during the third quarter than initially estimated.
According to the U.S. Commerce Department, real GDP decreased at an annual rate of -.5% in the third quarter, down from the previous estimate of -.3%, as expected.
But the dollar continued its weakness against the major currencies yesterday as the expectation of diminished demand in dollar as safe heaven. New U.S. measures to boost consumer lending helped ease concerns about the financial crisis, and changed the view in dollar. The US GDP also influences the dollar movements.
According to the World Gold Council, Global demand for gold jumped 18 percent year-over-year to 1,133.4 tonnes in the third quarter, reversing a weaker trend earlier this year, because of strong buying by investors and a lower gold price.
International spot gold traded in the range $ 830.1– $ 801.80 a Troy Ounce and last quoted at $820.70
Weekly Outlook (DG. OCT.)
Continuation of the bullish movements expected above $816.Resistances are $829 $849, $869,913 Supports seen at $802, $771, $754.
Last day DGCX Gold FEB. Traded in the range $832.2-803 and closed at $ 816
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (FEB) - Bullish above $ 819.50 bearish below $814
MCXARUN
9994500540
safe trade calls
GOLD
PRICE TURN EXACT FROM OUR GIVEN LEVEL ON BOTH SIDES AS SUPPORT GIVEN=12920 & LOW= 12928 WHILE RESISTANCE GIVEN= 13250 AND TURN FROM HIGH=13234. Continue to view, as long Resist 13250 correction expected towards 12700/ 12450 in coming days. for the day sell only below 12920 S/L 12970 and T/p 12800-725/sustain below down rally sharp OR sell ard 13235-240 S/L 13250 and T/p 13160-13100, sustain abv 13250 avoid short sell (any time close above 13250/13600/14325 bullish while close below 12700/12075/11450/11290-250 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
PRICE TURN ALMOST FROM OUR GIVEN RESISTANCE=17600 AS DAYS HIGH=17585. for the day sell only below 17000 S/L 17080 and T/p 16940-16800/below down rally OR buy only abv 17500 S/L 17425 and T/p 17600/ 17750/sustain close above 17750 test 18500 atleast in coming days (any time close below 16350/15775 bearish rally while close above 17750/19000/20550/ 21400/22150/25250/26350/27475/ 28000 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
Continue to view, as long Resistance 2725/2775, down trend likely to continue. book profit on buy ard 2770-72, for the day sell below 2550 S/L 2570 and T/p 2530-2500/sustain close below test 2375 in coming days OR sell ard 2655-60 S/L 2665 and T/p 2635-20 (now crude need to close above 2775/2970/ 3040/3200/3525/3790/4170/4380/4980 for bullish rally while close below 2500 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
As long Resistance 189.5-190 down trend likely to continue. for the day sell only below 178.5 S/L 180 and T/p 176/ 173.5-172.5/sustain below test 165 atleast in coming days OR sell ard 186.8-187 S/L 187.5 and T/p 185-183.5 (upside strong rally only on close above 190/199/215/234.5/248/270/305/316/ 327/339/351.25/360.5/387/398 while close below 172.5 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
PRICE TURN EXACT FROM OUR GIVEN LEVEL ON BOTH SIDES AS SUPPORT GIVEN=12920 & LOW= 12928 WHILE RESISTANCE GIVEN= 13250 AND TURN FROM HIGH=13234. Continue to view, as long Resist 13250 correction expected towards 12700/ 12450 in coming days. for the day sell only below 12920 S/L 12970 and T/p 12800-725/sustain below down rally sharp OR sell ard 13235-240 S/L 13250 and T/p 13160-13100, sustain abv 13250 avoid short sell (any time close above 13250/13600/14325 bullish while close below 12700/12075/11450/11290-250 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
PRICE TURN ALMOST FROM OUR GIVEN RESISTANCE=17600 AS DAYS HIGH=17585. for the day sell only below 17000 S/L 17080 and T/p 16940-16800/below down rally OR buy only abv 17500 S/L 17425 and T/p 17600/ 17750/sustain close above 17750 test 18500 atleast in coming days (any time close below 16350/15775 bearish rally while close above 17750/19000/20550/ 21400/22150/25250/26350/27475/ 28000 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
Continue to view, as long Resistance 2725/2775, down trend likely to continue. book profit on buy ard 2770-72, for the day sell below 2550 S/L 2570 and T/p 2530-2500/sustain close below test 2375 in coming days OR sell ard 2655-60 S/L 2665 and T/p 2635-20 (now crude need to close above 2775/2970/ 3040/3200/3525/3790/4170/4380/4980 for bullish rally while close below 2500 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
As long Resistance 189.5-190 down trend likely to continue. for the day sell only below 178.5 S/L 180 and T/p 176/ 173.5-172.5/sustain below test 165 atleast in coming days OR sell ard 186.8-187 S/L 187.5 and T/p 185-183.5 (upside strong rally only on close above 190/199/215/234.5/248/270/305/316/ 327/339/351.25/360.5/387/398 while close below 172.5 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
safe trade calls
GOLD
Now as long Resist 13250 downside correction expected towards 12700/ 12450. for the day sell below 12975 S/L 13010 and T/p 12925-850/800 OR sell ard 13238-245 S/L 13260 and T/p 13200 -150 (any time close above 13250/ 13600/14325 bullish while close below 12700/12075/11450/11290-250 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
our S/L was hit on sell but this was our view yesterday "Sustain above 16850 avoid short sell" & see Price make High of 17610. for the day buy only abv 17625 S/L 17500 and T/p 17750/sustain close above 17750 test 18500 atleast in coming days OR buy ard 16840-850 S/L 16800 and T/p 16950/17075 (any time close below 16350/15775 bearish rally while close above 17750/19000/20550/ 21400/22150/25250/26350/27475/ 28000 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
PRICE TURN EXACT FROM OUR GIVEN DOWN TREND RESISTANCE. Continue to view, as long Resistance 2775, down trend likely to continue. for the day buy only abv 2775 S/L 2735 and T/p 2800/2860, if manage to close abv 2775 avoid short sell OR buy ard 2570-72 S/L 2560 and T/p 2620-2650 (now crude need to close above 2775/2970/ 3040/3200/3525/3790/4170/4380/4980 for bullish rally while close below 2500 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
for the day buy only abv 188.5 S/L 187 and T/p 190/191.5/sustain abv towards 197-198 OR sell below 180 S/L 181.75 and T/p 178-176.5 (upside strong rally only on close above 190/199/215/234.5/ 248/270/305/316/327/339/351.25/ 360.5/387/398 while close below 172.5 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
Now as long Resist 13250 downside correction expected towards 12700/ 12450. for the day sell below 12975 S/L 13010 and T/p 12925-850/800 OR sell ard 13238-245 S/L 13260 and T/p 13200 -150 (any time close above 13250/ 13600/14325 bullish while close below 12700/12075/11450/11290-250 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
our S/L was hit on sell but this was our view yesterday "Sustain above 16850 avoid short sell" & see Price make High of 17610. for the day buy only abv 17625 S/L 17500 and T/p 17750/sustain close above 17750 test 18500 atleast in coming days OR buy ard 16840-850 S/L 16800 and T/p 16950/17075 (any time close below 16350/15775 bearish rally while close above 17750/19000/20550/ 21400/22150/25250/26350/27475/ 28000 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
PRICE TURN EXACT FROM OUR GIVEN DOWN TREND RESISTANCE. Continue to view, as long Resistance 2775, down trend likely to continue. for the day buy only abv 2775 S/L 2735 and T/p 2800/2860, if manage to close abv 2775 avoid short sell OR buy ard 2570-72 S/L 2560 and T/p 2620-2650 (now crude need to close above 2775/2970/ 3040/3200/3525/3790/4170/4380/4980 for bullish rally while close below 2500 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
for the day buy only abv 188.5 S/L 187 and T/p 190/191.5/sustain abv towards 197-198 OR sell below 180 S/L 181.75 and T/p 178-176.5 (upside strong rally only on close above 190/199/215/234.5/ 248/270/305/316/327/339/351.25/ 360.5/387/398 while close below 172.5 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
safe trade calls
GOLD
Now as long Resist 13250 downside correction expected towards 12700/ 12450. for the day sell below 12975 S/L 13010 and T/p 12925-850/800 OR sell ard 13238-245 S/L 13260 and T/p 13200 -150 (any time close above 13250/ 13600/14325 bullish while close below 12700/12075/11450/11290-250 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
our S/L was hit on sell but this was our view yesterday "Sustain above 16850 avoid short sell" & see Price make High of 17610. for the day buy only abv 17625 S/L 17500 and T/p 17750/sustain close above 17750 test 18500 atleast in coming days OR buy ard 16840-850 S/L 16800 and T/p 16950/17075 (any time close below 16350/15775 bearish rally while close above 17750/19000/20550/ 21400/22150/25250/26350/27475/ 28000 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
PRICE TURN EXACT FROM OUR GIVEN DOWN TREND RESISTANCE. Continue to view, as long Resistance 2775, down trend likely to continue. for the day buy only abv 2775 S/L 2735 and T/p 2800/2860, if manage to close abv 2775 avoid short sell OR buy ard 2570-72 S/L 2560 and T/p 2620-2650 (now crude need to close above 2775/2970/ 3040/3200/3525/3790/4170/4380/4980 for bullish rally while close below 2500 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
for the day buy only abv 188.5 S/L 187 and T/p 190/191.5/sustain abv towards 197-198 OR sell below 180 S/L 181.75 and T/p 178-176.5 (upside strong rally only on close above 190/199/215/234.5/ 248/270/305/316/327/339/351.25/ 360.5/387/398 while close below 172.5 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
Now as long Resist 13250 downside correction expected towards 12700/ 12450. for the day sell below 12975 S/L 13010 and T/p 12925-850/800 OR sell ard 13238-245 S/L 13260 and T/p 13200 -150 (any time close above 13250/ 13600/14325 bullish while close below 12700/12075/11450/11290-250 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
our S/L was hit on sell but this was our view yesterday "Sustain above 16850 avoid short sell" & see Price make High of 17610. for the day buy only abv 17625 S/L 17500 and T/p 17750/sustain close above 17750 test 18500 atleast in coming days OR buy ard 16840-850 S/L 16800 and T/p 16950/17075 (any time close below 16350/15775 bearish rally while close above 17750/19000/20550/ 21400/22150/25250/26350/27475/ 28000 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
PRICE TURN EXACT FROM OUR GIVEN DOWN TREND RESISTANCE. Continue to view, as long Resistance 2775, down trend likely to continue. for the day buy only abv 2775 S/L 2735 and T/p 2800/2860, if manage to close abv 2775 avoid short sell OR buy ard 2570-72 S/L 2560 and T/p 2620-2650 (now crude need to close above 2775/2970/ 3040/3200/3525/3790/4170/4380/4980 for bullish rally while close below 2500 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
for the day buy only abv 188.5 S/L 187 and T/p 190/191.5/sustain abv towards 197-198 OR sell below 180 S/L 181.75 and T/p 178-176.5 (upside strong rally only on close above 190/199/215/234.5/ 248/270/305/316/327/339/351.25/ 360.5/387/398 while close below 172.5 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
Friday, November 21, 2008
safe trade calls
GOLD
THIS WAS OUR VIEW YESTERDAY "sell ard 12160-170 S/L 12180 and T/p 12125/12070" ACHIEVED AS TURN FROM DAYS HIGH=12165. Continue to view, as long Resistance of 12225 down trend likely to continue. for the day sell below 12050 S/L 12090 and T/p 12010-11975/11850/11775/ below down rally sharp OR buy only abv 12230 S/L 12200 and T/p 12270-300/ 12375 where strong Resistance seen again (any time close above 12225-12375/12850/13600/14325 bullish while close below 11450/11290-250 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
Continue to view as long Resist of 16450/16830 down trend likely to continue. book profit on sell below 16200, for the day sell only below 15850 S/L 15930 and T/p 15775-700/close below 15775 test 15400 atleast in coming days OR sell ard 16320-330 S/L 16350 and T/p 16225-150 (any time close below 15775 bearish rally while close above 16850/17750/19000/20550/ 21400/22150/25250/26350/27475/ 28000 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
Continue to view, as long Resistance 2775, down trend likely to continue. book profit on sell below 2750-2730, for the day sell only below 2590 S/L 2610 and T/p 2570-2550 OR sell ard 1704-8 S/L 2715 and T/p 2675-70 (now crude need to close above 2775/2970/3040/ 3200/3525/3790/4170/4380/4980 for bullish rally while close below 2590 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
Continue to view, as long Resistance of 180, down trend likely to continue. book profit on sell below 182.50/178, for the day sell only below 173.5 S/L 175 and T/p 171-170/towards 165 in coming days OR sell ard 179.8-180.2 S/L 180.5 and T/p 178-5/177.5 (upside strong rally only on close above 190/199/215/234.5/ 248/270/305/316/327/339/351.25/ 360.5/387/398 while close below 173.5 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
THIS WAS OUR VIEW YESTERDAY "sell ard 12160-170 S/L 12180 and T/p 12125/12070" ACHIEVED AS TURN FROM DAYS HIGH=12165. Continue to view, as long Resistance of 12225 down trend likely to continue. for the day sell below 12050 S/L 12090 and T/p 12010-11975/11850/11775/ below down rally sharp OR buy only abv 12230 S/L 12200 and T/p 12270-300/ 12375 where strong Resistance seen again (any time close above 12225-12375/12850/13600/14325 bullish while close below 11450/11290-250 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
Continue to view as long Resist of 16450/16830 down trend likely to continue. book profit on sell below 16200, for the day sell only below 15850 S/L 15930 and T/p 15775-700/close below 15775 test 15400 atleast in coming days OR sell ard 16320-330 S/L 16350 and T/p 16225-150 (any time close below 15775 bearish rally while close above 16850/17750/19000/20550/ 21400/22150/25250/26350/27475/ 28000 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
Continue to view, as long Resistance 2775, down trend likely to continue. book profit on sell below 2750-2730, for the day sell only below 2590 S/L 2610 and T/p 2570-2550 OR sell ard 1704-8 S/L 2715 and T/p 2675-70 (now crude need to close above 2775/2970/3040/ 3200/3525/3790/4170/4380/4980 for bullish rally while close below 2590 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
Continue to view, as long Resistance of 180, down trend likely to continue. book profit on sell below 182.50/178, for the day sell only below 173.5 S/L 175 and T/p 171-170/towards 165 in coming days OR sell ard 179.8-180.2 S/L 180.5 and T/p 178-5/177.5 (upside strong rally only on close above 190/199/215/234.5/ 248/270/305/316/327/339/351.25/ 360.5/387/398 while close below 173.5 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
gold outlook
Gold held steady for US and Japanese investors early Thursday, and leapt for everyone else, as a fresh spike in the currency value of Dollars and Yen – both used to fund leveraged speculation during 2001-2007 – matched new losses in world equity markets.
"Global assets keep deflating, inflation is falling faster than expected," writes Walter de Wet, head of commodity research at Standard Bank in Johannesburg in his Gold Market note today.
"We've become convinced that we'll see a series of aggressive interest rate cuts, especially in the Eurozone and UK...Standard Bank maintains that the bias for the Dollar is towards strengthening in the next three months, and erratically so."
After the S&P on Wall Street closed Wednesday at a new five-year low, Tokyo's Nikkei ended today nearly 7% lower – more than 1,400 points down for Nov. so far – as the Japanese Yen gained 5% against the Euro in violent trade.
Here in London, the FTSE100 tumbled through the 4,000 mark – a 41-month low first hit in mid-Oct. – while the Pound lost almost three US cents from Wednesday's brief high.
For French, German and Italian investors wanting to Buy Gold today, the price moved up to a 3-week high of €597.
The Gold Price in Sterling jumped back above £500 an ounce.
"Gold [was] one of the few assets remaining that could be sold at a reasonable price to meet margin calls on other, worse-performing assets," explained the World Gold Council (WGC) in its latest quarterly report Wednesday, pointing to the apparent failure of Gold's Safe Haven Role during Sept. and Oct.
The WGC reports a record 121% jump in physical gold investment worldwide during the third-quarter of this year.
Global gold-market supplies, in contrast, fell by 9.7% year-on-year, led by a sharp drop in central bank gold sales.
"The rate of physical Gold Buying has been impressive, and supply remains constrained," agrees the latest Fortis Metals Monthly from Virtual Metals, the London-based consultancy.
On the supply side, "dehedging [by Gold Mining firms] continues to fade and central bank sales are very weak," it says.
"Perhaps when institutional investors, such as hedge funds, have stopped liquidating their holdings, the price will gain. But it needs to do so soon to be convincing."
In the broader raw materials market, meantime, forced sales to cover losses elsewhere have squashed commodity-fund investments by one half, Virtual Metals goes on, since peaking above $200 billion in June.
Today crude oil fell towards $53 per barrel, base metals sold off hard, and "safe haven" government bonds rose yet again, pushing the yield offered by 10-year US Treasury debt down to 3.27%.
Yesterday's US consumer-price data put the headline inflation rate at 3.7% year-on-year. Stripping out "volatile" food & energy prices, core CPI – the Federal Reserve's preferred measure – stood 2.2% higher from 12 months earlier, and precisely in line with core US inflation's average growth over the last 10 years.
Even so, "The largest headline CPI decline in the US in years implies to me that [while] gold is a hedge against inflation, it doesn't look like there is any inflation in the short term to hedge," reckons Bart Melek, commodity strategist at BMO Capital Markets, speaking to Canada's National Post.
Put another way, "There's absolutely no need to Buy Gold as a hedge against inflation," claimed Peter Fertig at Dresdner Kleinwort in Hainburg, Germany to Bloomberg News earlier this week.
Physical gold investors disagree, however, while central banks the world over continue to battle the risk of deflation with record-low interest rates and strong money-supply growth.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) today slashed its lending rate by an unprecedented 1.0% to just 1.0% in an unscheduled move.
"More aggressive easing...should reduce the odds of a deflationary outcome," agreed the US Federal Reserve at its most recent policy meeting, minutes released on Wednesday show.
The US monetary base (meaning currency in circulation and bank deposits held at the Federal Reserve) has expanded by more than 70% in the last two months, creating more cash inside nine weeks than existed in total seven years ago.
Growth in the Bank of England's broad "M4" measure of the UK money supply meantime swelled by 15.1% in October – an 18-year record – figures showed this morning.
New private-sector borrowing rose faster still, up by 16.1% year-on-year thanks to a record monthly expansion of £52.8 billion ($79.2bn), even as the supply of credit to households and business dried up.
The vast bulk of new credit creation, according to Bank of England data, is going instead to non-bank financial corporations – in particular brokers, exchanges and clearing houses needing large cash positions to use as a "fire break" in case of a major counter-party default.
All told, these "other financial corporations" accounted for more than 96% of new UK borrowing in Sept.
MCXARUN
9994500540
"Global assets keep deflating, inflation is falling faster than expected," writes Walter de Wet, head of commodity research at Standard Bank in Johannesburg in his Gold Market note today.
"We've become convinced that we'll see a series of aggressive interest rate cuts, especially in the Eurozone and UK...Standard Bank maintains that the bias for the Dollar is towards strengthening in the next three months, and erratically so."
After the S&P on Wall Street closed Wednesday at a new five-year low, Tokyo's Nikkei ended today nearly 7% lower – more than 1,400 points down for Nov. so far – as the Japanese Yen gained 5% against the Euro in violent trade.
Here in London, the FTSE100 tumbled through the 4,000 mark – a 41-month low first hit in mid-Oct. – while the Pound lost almost three US cents from Wednesday's brief high.
For French, German and Italian investors wanting to Buy Gold today, the price moved up to a 3-week high of €597.
The Gold Price in Sterling jumped back above £500 an ounce.
"Gold [was] one of the few assets remaining that could be sold at a reasonable price to meet margin calls on other, worse-performing assets," explained the World Gold Council (WGC) in its latest quarterly report Wednesday, pointing to the apparent failure of Gold's Safe Haven Role during Sept. and Oct.
The WGC reports a record 121% jump in physical gold investment worldwide during the third-quarter of this year.
Global gold-market supplies, in contrast, fell by 9.7% year-on-year, led by a sharp drop in central bank gold sales.
"The rate of physical Gold Buying has been impressive, and supply remains constrained," agrees the latest Fortis Metals Monthly from Virtual Metals, the London-based consultancy.
On the supply side, "dehedging [by Gold Mining firms] continues to fade and central bank sales are very weak," it says.
"Perhaps when institutional investors, such as hedge funds, have stopped liquidating their holdings, the price will gain. But it needs to do so soon to be convincing."
In the broader raw materials market, meantime, forced sales to cover losses elsewhere have squashed commodity-fund investments by one half, Virtual Metals goes on, since peaking above $200 billion in June.
Today crude oil fell towards $53 per barrel, base metals sold off hard, and "safe haven" government bonds rose yet again, pushing the yield offered by 10-year US Treasury debt down to 3.27%.
Yesterday's US consumer-price data put the headline inflation rate at 3.7% year-on-year. Stripping out "volatile" food & energy prices, core CPI – the Federal Reserve's preferred measure – stood 2.2% higher from 12 months earlier, and precisely in line with core US inflation's average growth over the last 10 years.
Even so, "The largest headline CPI decline in the US in years implies to me that [while] gold is a hedge against inflation, it doesn't look like there is any inflation in the short term to hedge," reckons Bart Melek, commodity strategist at BMO Capital Markets, speaking to Canada's National Post.
Put another way, "There's absolutely no need to Buy Gold as a hedge against inflation," claimed Peter Fertig at Dresdner Kleinwort in Hainburg, Germany to Bloomberg News earlier this week.
Physical gold investors disagree, however, while central banks the world over continue to battle the risk of deflation with record-low interest rates and strong money-supply growth.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) today slashed its lending rate by an unprecedented 1.0% to just 1.0% in an unscheduled move.
"More aggressive easing...should reduce the odds of a deflationary outcome," agreed the US Federal Reserve at its most recent policy meeting, minutes released on Wednesday show.
The US monetary base (meaning currency in circulation and bank deposits held at the Federal Reserve) has expanded by more than 70% in the last two months, creating more cash inside nine weeks than existed in total seven years ago.
Growth in the Bank of England's broad "M4" measure of the UK money supply meantime swelled by 15.1% in October – an 18-year record – figures showed this morning.
New private-sector borrowing rose faster still, up by 16.1% year-on-year thanks to a record monthly expansion of £52.8 billion ($79.2bn), even as the supply of credit to households and business dried up.
The vast bulk of new credit creation, according to Bank of England data, is going instead to non-bank financial corporations – in particular brokers, exchanges and clearing houses needing large cash positions to use as a "fire break" in case of a major counter-party default.
All told, these "other financial corporations" accounted for more than 96% of new UK borrowing in Sept.
MCXARUN
9994500540
outlook
Crude oil dived under $50 a barrel to hit the lowest level since May 2005, deepening losses as financial markets reflected ever lower confidence in the world economy and evidence mounted of falling fuel demand. As economic slowdown has destroyed fuel demand, oil companies plan to store millions of barrels of oil in the hope economics will improve. Oil differs from other commodity markets in that producer group the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries can intervene to curb supplies, in theory providing support for prices. Since early September, OPEC has said it will remove around 2 million barrels per day from international markets, but market has taken the view that falling demand is a bigger factor than tightening supply.
Gold alleviated more than 2% as physical gold bullion buying offset a broad-based commodity decline, a strong dollar and further losses in equity markets. Gold came off its initial high as U.S. stocks slid as much as 3% early, prompting liquidation across all asset classes. Strong physical buying of gold such as coins and bars boosted prices, and demand increased with price dips. Global demand for gold jumped 18% year-over-year to 1,133.4 tonnes in the third quarter, as strong buying by investors at a lower gold price reversed a weaker trend earlier this year according to the World Gold Council. Gold however consolidating and trading at $720-$752 technical levels. Gold held up well despite a 5% tumble of crude oil, trading just above $50 per barrel.
The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits surged by a larger than expected 27,000 for the week to their highest level in 16 years, according to the Labor Department, as a harsh economic environment forces employers to cut back on hiring. Initial claims for state unemployment insurance benefits were a seasonally adjusted 542,000 for the week from a revised 515,000 the previous week. A Labor Department official said there were no special factors influencing the report. However analysts polled by Reuters had forecast 505,000 new claims versus a previously reported count of 516,000 the week before. Moreover New York-based Conference Board states in its monthly forecast of economic activity declined 0.8% in October, worse than the 0.6% decrease expected by economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters. Over the last seven months, the index declined at a 4.7% annual rate, faster than any decline since 2001. Most of the decline was due to the plunge in stock prices, the drop in building permits and the decline in consumer expectations.
The price of copper tumbled as rising stockpiles and recession fears underscored the red metal's weaker demand outlook. Record lows in U.S. housing starts, surging inventory levels in London warehouse stocks, declining global equity markets, strength in the dollar, and uncertainty whether U.S. automakers will win emergency government loans contributing to copper's bearish tone. Fears of a deep global recession heightened after U.S. jobless claims jump to their highest level in 16 years.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Gold alleviated more than 2% as physical gold bullion buying offset a broad-based commodity decline, a strong dollar and further losses in equity markets. Gold came off its initial high as U.S. stocks slid as much as 3% early, prompting liquidation across all asset classes. Strong physical buying of gold such as coins and bars boosted prices, and demand increased with price dips. Global demand for gold jumped 18% year-over-year to 1,133.4 tonnes in the third quarter, as strong buying by investors at a lower gold price reversed a weaker trend earlier this year according to the World Gold Council. Gold however consolidating and trading at $720-$752 technical levels. Gold held up well despite a 5% tumble of crude oil, trading just above $50 per barrel.
The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits surged by a larger than expected 27,000 for the week to their highest level in 16 years, according to the Labor Department, as a harsh economic environment forces employers to cut back on hiring. Initial claims for state unemployment insurance benefits were a seasonally adjusted 542,000 for the week from a revised 515,000 the previous week. A Labor Department official said there were no special factors influencing the report. However analysts polled by Reuters had forecast 505,000 new claims versus a previously reported count of 516,000 the week before. Moreover New York-based Conference Board states in its monthly forecast of economic activity declined 0.8% in October, worse than the 0.6% decrease expected by economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters. Over the last seven months, the index declined at a 4.7% annual rate, faster than any decline since 2001. Most of the decline was due to the plunge in stock prices, the drop in building permits and the decline in consumer expectations.
The price of copper tumbled as rising stockpiles and recession fears underscored the red metal's weaker demand outlook. Record lows in U.S. housing starts, surging inventory levels in London warehouse stocks, declining global equity markets, strength in the dollar, and uncertainty whether U.S. automakers will win emergency government loans contributing to copper's bearish tone. Fears of a deep global recession heightened after U.S. jobless claims jump to their highest level in 16 years.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Thursday, November 20, 2008
long view trading calls
COPPER
LIKELY TO TEST 175 ATLEAST / TOWARDS 165 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 178, ONLY CLOSE ABOVE 199 SOME UPSIDE AGAIN(NOV)
CRUDE OIL NYMEX
LIKELY TO $ 52 / 50 TOWARDS $ 45 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW $ 54, ONLY CLOSE ABOVE $ 65.50 & $ 72 CONFIRMS THIS DOWN TREND COMPLETED TEMPORARILY
ZINC
LIKELY TO TEST 48 UPTO 45 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 56 & 52.5, ONLY CLOSE ABOVE 64 MAKE SOME UPTREND AGAIN (NOV)
NAT GAS
LIKELY TO TEST 295-285 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 308, WHILE ONLY CLOSE ABOVE 365 SOME UPSIDE AGAIN (DEC)
MCXARUN
9994500540
LIKELY TO TEST 175 ATLEAST / TOWARDS 165 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 178, ONLY CLOSE ABOVE 199 SOME UPSIDE AGAIN(NOV)
CRUDE OIL NYMEX
LIKELY TO $ 52 / 50 TOWARDS $ 45 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW $ 54, ONLY CLOSE ABOVE $ 65.50 & $ 72 CONFIRMS THIS DOWN TREND COMPLETED TEMPORARILY
ZINC
LIKELY TO TEST 48 UPTO 45 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 56 & 52.5, ONLY CLOSE ABOVE 64 MAKE SOME UPTREND AGAIN (NOV)
NAT GAS
LIKELY TO TEST 295-285 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 308, WHILE ONLY CLOSE ABOVE 365 SOME UPSIDE AGAIN (DEC)
MCXARUN
9994500540
safe trade calls
GOLD
THIS WAS OUR VIEW YESTERDAY "buy only abv 11925 S/L 11890 and T/p 11980-12000/towards 12100" ACHIEVED WITHIN 1-HOURS. Now, as long Resistance of 12150 & 12225 down trend likely to continue. for the day sell only below 11850 S/L 11885 and T/p 11810-800/11720-730/sustain below towards 11630 OR sell ard 12160-170 S/L 12180 and T/p 12125/12070 (any time close above 12225-12375/12850/ 13600/14325 bullish while close below 11450/11290-250 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
THIS WAS OUR WORDS "as Long Resist 16575 & 16825 down trend continue" AND SEE PRICE TURN EXACT FROM OUR LEVEL FROM HIGH=16826. Continue to view as long Resist of 16830 down trend likely to continue. for the day sell only below 16200 S/L 16280 and T/p 16100-16000/ close below 16000 test 15400 atleast in coming days OR sell ard 16660-670 S/L 16700 and T/p 16575-500 (any time close below 16000-15975 bearish rally while close above 16850/17750/19000/ 20550/21400/22150/25250/26350/ 27475/28000 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
Continue to view, as long Resistance 2970 & 3040, down trend likely to continue. for the day sell only below 2750 & more below 2730 S/L 2765 and T/p 2700-2680 OR sell ard 2860-65 S/L 2870 and T/p 2840-2815 (now crude need to close above 2970/3040/3200/ 3525/3790/4170/4380/4980 for bullish rally while close below 2735 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
Continue to view, as long Resistance of 187/191 & 199, down trend likely to continue. book profit on sell below 182.50, for the day sell only below 178 S/L 180 and T/p 176-75/sustain close below 178 towards 165-170 in coming days OR sell ard 186.3-186.6 S/L 187 and T/p 184-84 (upside strong rally only on close above 199/215/234.5/248/270/ 305/316/327/339/351.25/360.5/387/398 while close below 178 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
THIS WAS OUR VIEW YESTERDAY "buy only abv 11925 S/L 11890 and T/p 11980-12000/towards 12100" ACHIEVED WITHIN 1-HOURS. Now, as long Resistance of 12150 & 12225 down trend likely to continue. for the day sell only below 11850 S/L 11885 and T/p 11810-800/11720-730/sustain below towards 11630 OR sell ard 12160-170 S/L 12180 and T/p 12125/12070 (any time close above 12225-12375/12850/ 13600/14325 bullish while close below 11450/11290-250 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
THIS WAS OUR WORDS "as Long Resist 16575 & 16825 down trend continue" AND SEE PRICE TURN EXACT FROM OUR LEVEL FROM HIGH=16826. Continue to view as long Resist of 16830 down trend likely to continue. for the day sell only below 16200 S/L 16280 and T/p 16100-16000/ close below 16000 test 15400 atleast in coming days OR sell ard 16660-670 S/L 16700 and T/p 16575-500 (any time close below 16000-15975 bearish rally while close above 16850/17750/19000/ 20550/21400/22150/25250/26350/ 27475/28000 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
Continue to view, as long Resistance 2970 & 3040, down trend likely to continue. for the day sell only below 2750 & more below 2730 S/L 2765 and T/p 2700-2680 OR sell ard 2860-65 S/L 2870 and T/p 2840-2815 (now crude need to close above 2970/3040/3200/ 3525/3790/4170/4380/4980 for bullish rally while close below 2735 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
Continue to view, as long Resistance of 187/191 & 199, down trend likely to continue. book profit on sell below 182.50, for the day sell only below 178 S/L 180 and T/p 176-75/sustain close below 178 towards 165-170 in coming days OR sell ard 186.3-186.6 S/L 187 and T/p 184-84 (upside strong rally only on close above 199/215/234.5/248/270/ 305/316/327/339/351.25/360.5/387/398 while close below 178 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
market outlook
Recession now a reality in major economies from Japan to Germany, policymakers is starting to fret about the chance of a phenomenon many see as even more deadly: deflation. Deflation is probably the worst case for the financial sector because it is very difficult to overcome. The prospect of constantly falling prices is particularly unwelcome at present given the blow it deals to efforts by banks, firms and households to cut debt and help weather the economic storm now following the financial market crisis. Central banks, faced with a sudden collapse in growth as well as inflation, have already slashed interest rates and are expected to keep doing so,although economists warn they may run out of rope before prices hit rock-bottom.
Gold rose above $760, as a weaker dollar and a bullish industry report showing strong demand triggered a technical chart breakout. Prices were supported by a lower dollar against the Euro following a government report showing record drop in U.S. consumer prices in October. World Gold Council report confirmed strong demand for physical gold bullion, triggering a technical breakout. Global demand for gold jumped 18 percent year-overyear to 1,133.4 tonnes in the third quarter, reversing a weaker trend earlier this year, because of strong buying by investors and a lower gold price.
Copper tumbled more than 2 percent before steadying at slightly lower levels as a weaker dollar helped offset lingering concerns about demand and a slowing global growth outlook. Dim demand prospects and fears the world is in for an extended recession have contributed to the downtrend in the base metals. U.S. consumer prices plummeted and construction starts fell to record lows, reflective of the weakened state of metal demand. Further fears of demand deterioration from the U.S. automotive industry as the economic crisis threatens the survival of Detroit's Big Three General Motors Corp, Ford Motor Co and Chrysler LLC. Global copper market in a small surplus of 26,800 tonnes in January to September period - the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) reported.
Crude oil fell below $54 to its lowest since January 2007 after an unexpectedly large build in U.S. crude inventories underlined falling demand. Crude oil inventories rose 1.6 million barrels, weekly U.S. government data showed, twice analysts' expectations. With no end in sight for the global economic turmoil, traders continue to focus on the lack of demand heading into 2009. Inventories of distillates fell 1.5 million barrels last week, against analysts' expectations for a 600,000 barrel rise. The distillates number is the fly in the ointment keeping prices from falling too much on an unexpected build in crude. Oil market was also closely watching any moves from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) at their meeting next week. OPEC is very concerned about the worsening world economic slowdown, the group's president Chakib Khelil said.'
MCXARUN
9994500540
Gold rose above $760, as a weaker dollar and a bullish industry report showing strong demand triggered a technical chart breakout. Prices were supported by a lower dollar against the Euro following a government report showing record drop in U.S. consumer prices in October. World Gold Council report confirmed strong demand for physical gold bullion, triggering a technical breakout. Global demand for gold jumped 18 percent year-overyear to 1,133.4 tonnes in the third quarter, reversing a weaker trend earlier this year, because of strong buying by investors and a lower gold price.
Copper tumbled more than 2 percent before steadying at slightly lower levels as a weaker dollar helped offset lingering concerns about demand and a slowing global growth outlook. Dim demand prospects and fears the world is in for an extended recession have contributed to the downtrend in the base metals. U.S. consumer prices plummeted and construction starts fell to record lows, reflective of the weakened state of metal demand. Further fears of demand deterioration from the U.S. automotive industry as the economic crisis threatens the survival of Detroit's Big Three General Motors Corp, Ford Motor Co and Chrysler LLC. Global copper market in a small surplus of 26,800 tonnes in January to September period - the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) reported.
Crude oil fell below $54 to its lowest since January 2007 after an unexpectedly large build in U.S. crude inventories underlined falling demand. Crude oil inventories rose 1.6 million barrels, weekly U.S. government data showed, twice analysts' expectations. With no end in sight for the global economic turmoil, traders continue to focus on the lack of demand heading into 2009. Inventories of distillates fell 1.5 million barrels last week, against analysts' expectations for a 600,000 barrel rise. The distillates number is the fly in the ointment keeping prices from falling too much on an unexpected build in crude. Oil market was also closely watching any moves from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) at their meeting next week. OPEC is very concerned about the worsening world economic slowdown, the group's president Chakib Khelil said.'
MCXARUN
9994500540
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
It’s the US dollar story for gold and silver and nothing else. Euro/Usd rose to 1.2813 while comex gold December rose to $764.80 and thereafter the euro fell and gold, silver and crude oil also fell. Still gold and silver have performed exceedingly well. Gold, silver and other commodities have been falling only after (A) US dollar gains or (B) Stock markets fall. When conditions A &B occur simultaneously then they fall else they are volatile. This will continue today also.
Minutes of Fed meeting
Federal Reserve policy makers last month predicted the U.S. economy will contract through the middle of 2009, with some prepared to lower interest rates further in response, a record of their meeting showed. ``Some suggested that additional policy easing could well be appropriate at future meetings,'' the Fed said in minutes of the Oct. 28-29 Federal Open Market Committee gathering released. In any event, the Committee agreed to take whatever steps were necessary to support the recovery. Fed officials cut their forecasts for inflation and growth to account for the choking off of credit to households and businesses as some of the biggest financial companies failed. Some FOMC members foresaw a risk that the inflation rate will fall below the Fed's objective of ``price stability.''
Our View: Interest rate cuts by the Fed will reach a bottom in December 2008 or January 2008. Thereafter it remains to be seen what other hard measures Federal reserves takes to spruce the US economy. In the short term the US dollar may gain as other regions across the globe cut interest rates and interest rate differentials narrow. Once the interest rates cuts are over by most of the countries the US dollar will weaken at a modest pace. This may happen for the remaining part of 2008 but will surely happen after the first quarter of 2009.
COMEX COPPER DECEMBER
Copper needs to hold $157 to prevent another round of selling to $149 and $135. On the higher side $172 is the resistance. Overall downward pressure is there on copper.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL (1ST CONTRACT)
Crude oil needs to hold $49.80 to prevent a fall to $46.00. On the higher side $53.80 and $56.20 are the resistances.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Minutes of Fed meeting
Federal Reserve policy makers last month predicted the U.S. economy will contract through the middle of 2009, with some prepared to lower interest rates further in response, a record of their meeting showed. ``Some suggested that additional policy easing could well be appropriate at future meetings,'' the Fed said in minutes of the Oct. 28-29 Federal Open Market Committee gathering released. In any event, the Committee agreed to take whatever steps were necessary to support the recovery. Fed officials cut their forecasts for inflation and growth to account for the choking off of credit to households and businesses as some of the biggest financial companies failed. Some FOMC members foresaw a risk that the inflation rate will fall below the Fed's objective of ``price stability.''
Our View: Interest rate cuts by the Fed will reach a bottom in December 2008 or January 2008. Thereafter it remains to be seen what other hard measures Federal reserves takes to spruce the US economy. In the short term the US dollar may gain as other regions across the globe cut interest rates and interest rate differentials narrow. Once the interest rates cuts are over by most of the countries the US dollar will weaken at a modest pace. This may happen for the remaining part of 2008 but will surely happen after the first quarter of 2009.
COMEX COPPER DECEMBER
Copper needs to hold $157 to prevent another round of selling to $149 and $135. On the higher side $172 is the resistance. Overall downward pressure is there on copper.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL (1ST CONTRACT)
Crude oil needs to hold $49.80 to prevent a fall to $46.00. On the higher side $53.80 and $56.20 are the resistances.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Friday, November 14, 2008
base metals outlook
The base metals pack staged a mini-recovery on the back of a weakness in the US Dollar and a bout of short-covering yesterday. However, this rise in prices could be temporary as the dollar weakened and hence buying emerged. The trend in the dollar is still upwards but could change in the coming months and provide some respite to prices. Base metal prices showed strength despite of bearish inventories for five out of six base metals.
Copper and Aluminum prices changed little as these metals plunged to multi-year lows in the morning. Inventories for copper gained 2,525 tonnes and this has been the seventeenth consecutive gain in inventories for the metal. Aluminum inventories jumped a whopping 44,425 tonnes. Gaining inventories amid a global economic recession is adding to concerns over declining demand. Zinc prices jumped 5% yesterday despite of an increase in LME inventories. Nickel prices gained sharply as output cutbacks have helped provide support. BHP Billiton said that it had scrapped a study on developing an integrated nickel project in Indonesia.
On the macroeconomic front, the US Dollar weakened and provided a respite to further decline in prices. US jobless claims jumped to a seven-year high of 516,000 as weakening demand led companies to fire more workers. This factor led to weakness in the dollar. Japan announced that it would offer up to $100bn to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in order to support emerging economies.
OUTLOOK
Base metal prices received some respite yesterday on the back of a weakness in the US Dollar. We feel that this recovery on the back of a weakness in the dollar is short-lived as the trend in base metals remains down. The change in trend could be seen only in the coming months as prices could react to physical buying in China, which is expected to pick up. Currently prices remain under pressure of the global economic slowdown as the macroeconomic picture is bleak. Financial markets across the globe are facing pressure and this is leading to volatility.
Rising inventories in the case of Copper and Aluminum are expected to put pressure on the downside. Since demand from China is expected to pick p in the next year, there is no current reason for gain. Hence, any gains in these metals could be followed by technical selling in the short-term.
On the macroeconomic front, the US is expected to announce data on retail sales, Michigan sentiment and business inventories today. This data could affect the dollar movement as a weakness in the data could weaken the dollar and provide some relief to the base metals market.
Copper
Immediate support is seen at Rs.183.30 levels for MCX November contract. Further below, support is seen at 180.60 levels. Copper is expected to trade sideways down.
Whereas resistance is seen at Rs.191.40 levels & further upwards at Rs. 194.90.
Zinc
Immediate support is seen at Rs.57.20 levels for MCX November contract whereas crucial support is seen at Rs.55.80 levels. Zinc is expected to trade sideways for the day.
Short-term resistance is seen at Rs 60.80 whereas major resistance is seen at Rs 62.10.
Zinc prices are currently trading around 93 levels. Immediate support is seen at Rs 92.30 levels for MCX Feb contract whereas crucial support is seen 90.60 levels. Short-term resistance is seen at Rs95.40 whereas major resistance is seen at Rs97.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Copper and Aluminum prices changed little as these metals plunged to multi-year lows in the morning. Inventories for copper gained 2,525 tonnes and this has been the seventeenth consecutive gain in inventories for the metal. Aluminum inventories jumped a whopping 44,425 tonnes. Gaining inventories amid a global economic recession is adding to concerns over declining demand. Zinc prices jumped 5% yesterday despite of an increase in LME inventories. Nickel prices gained sharply as output cutbacks have helped provide support. BHP Billiton said that it had scrapped a study on developing an integrated nickel project in Indonesia.
On the macroeconomic front, the US Dollar weakened and provided a respite to further decline in prices. US jobless claims jumped to a seven-year high of 516,000 as weakening demand led companies to fire more workers. This factor led to weakness in the dollar. Japan announced that it would offer up to $100bn to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in order to support emerging economies.
OUTLOOK
Base metal prices received some respite yesterday on the back of a weakness in the US Dollar. We feel that this recovery on the back of a weakness in the dollar is short-lived as the trend in base metals remains down. The change in trend could be seen only in the coming months as prices could react to physical buying in China, which is expected to pick up. Currently prices remain under pressure of the global economic slowdown as the macroeconomic picture is bleak. Financial markets across the globe are facing pressure and this is leading to volatility.
Rising inventories in the case of Copper and Aluminum are expected to put pressure on the downside. Since demand from China is expected to pick p in the next year, there is no current reason for gain. Hence, any gains in these metals could be followed by technical selling in the short-term.
On the macroeconomic front, the US is expected to announce data on retail sales, Michigan sentiment and business inventories today. This data could affect the dollar movement as a weakness in the data could weaken the dollar and provide some relief to the base metals market.
Copper
Immediate support is seen at Rs.183.30 levels for MCX November contract. Further below, support is seen at 180.60 levels. Copper is expected to trade sideways down.
Whereas resistance is seen at Rs.191.40 levels & further upwards at Rs. 194.90.
Zinc
Immediate support is seen at Rs.57.20 levels for MCX November contract whereas crucial support is seen at Rs.55.80 levels. Zinc is expected to trade sideways for the day.
Short-term resistance is seen at Rs 60.80 whereas major resistance is seen at Rs 62.10.
Zinc prices are currently trading around 93 levels. Immediate support is seen at Rs 92.30 levels for MCX Feb contract whereas crucial support is seen 90.60 levels. Short-term resistance is seen at Rs95.40 whereas major resistance is seen at Rs97.
MCXARUN
9994500540
mcx gold outlook
The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against the currencies of six trading partners, advanced to a 30-month high (88.15) yesterday.
The German economy, Europe's largest, slid into its worst recession in at least 12 years in the third quarter as the global financial crisis curbed exports and spending, government data showed yesterday.
U.S. stocks climbed, with Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 552.59, or 6.7 percent, to 8,835.25, after tumbling as much as 317.24 points earlier during yesterday’s trading session.
MARKET RECAP
The bullion pack witnessed an extremely volatile trading session yesterday with Spot Gold briefly breaching the $700 mark to recover sharply after market hours on the back of recovery in the Euro. Hedge funds liquidation has also hit the bullion pack hard as rush for cash led to sell-off across all asset classes. Crude futures breached the $55 mark, pulling prices to 22-month lows over declining energy demand concerns, also putting pressure on gold prices.
In currency market, the Euro rose sharply during yesterday’s trading session to close above its 10-Day Moving Average. The overall trend still remains sideways-down. For the day, Euro shall meet with resistance at 1.2928/1.3138 whereas support is seen at 1.2672/1.2492. The short-term top (87.88) for the Dollar Index was breached during yesterday’s trading session but later in the trading session, the DI fell sharply to close lower at 86.50.
Silver prices also fell during yesterday’s trading session briefly breaching the $9 mark but managed to recover all its losses to close in positive territory, following gold prices.
OUTLOOK
Spot gold prices have continued to trade in the range of $680 - $780 levels for the past 17 trading sessions. The presence of mixed trends in the bullion pack is indicative of indecisiveness in the markets. The Bullion prices are primarily being affected by currency movements and to some extent by crude prices. The Dollar Index still maintains its uptrend though it appears to be losing steam. Unless we see a reversal in trend in the $, bullion prices will continue to remain under pressure. Also, bullion pack is being impacted by the global economic weakness which isn’t appearing to help the bullion pack much. There's still is a push to hold cash amongst the investors community.
On intraday basis, Spot Gold prices have immediate support at $720/$700 whereas resistance is seen at $740/$755. Spot Silver prices shall find support at $8.95/$8.50 whereas resistance is seen at $9.60/$10.00.
MCX December Gold has support at 11550/11380 whereas resistance is seen at 11770/11880 levels whereas MCX December Silver shall find support at 16000/15970 whereas resistance is seen at 16520/16725 levels.
MCXARUN
9994500540
The German economy, Europe's largest, slid into its worst recession in at least 12 years in the third quarter as the global financial crisis curbed exports and spending, government data showed yesterday.
U.S. stocks climbed, with Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 552.59, or 6.7 percent, to 8,835.25, after tumbling as much as 317.24 points earlier during yesterday’s trading session.
MARKET RECAP
The bullion pack witnessed an extremely volatile trading session yesterday with Spot Gold briefly breaching the $700 mark to recover sharply after market hours on the back of recovery in the Euro. Hedge funds liquidation has also hit the bullion pack hard as rush for cash led to sell-off across all asset classes. Crude futures breached the $55 mark, pulling prices to 22-month lows over declining energy demand concerns, also putting pressure on gold prices.
In currency market, the Euro rose sharply during yesterday’s trading session to close above its 10-Day Moving Average. The overall trend still remains sideways-down. For the day, Euro shall meet with resistance at 1.2928/1.3138 whereas support is seen at 1.2672/1.2492. The short-term top (87.88) for the Dollar Index was breached during yesterday’s trading session but later in the trading session, the DI fell sharply to close lower at 86.50.
Silver prices also fell during yesterday’s trading session briefly breaching the $9 mark but managed to recover all its losses to close in positive territory, following gold prices.
OUTLOOK
Spot gold prices have continued to trade in the range of $680 - $780 levels for the past 17 trading sessions. The presence of mixed trends in the bullion pack is indicative of indecisiveness in the markets. The Bullion prices are primarily being affected by currency movements and to some extent by crude prices. The Dollar Index still maintains its uptrend though it appears to be losing steam. Unless we see a reversal in trend in the $, bullion prices will continue to remain under pressure. Also, bullion pack is being impacted by the global economic weakness which isn’t appearing to help the bullion pack much. There's still is a push to hold cash amongst the investors community.
On intraday basis, Spot Gold prices have immediate support at $720/$700 whereas resistance is seen at $740/$755. Spot Silver prices shall find support at $8.95/$8.50 whereas resistance is seen at $9.60/$10.00.
MCX December Gold has support at 11550/11380 whereas resistance is seen at 11770/11880 levels whereas MCX December Silver shall find support at 16000/15970 whereas resistance is seen at 16520/16725 levels.
MCXARUN
9994500540
nymex crude outlook
U.S. crude futures settled up yesterday tracking a slight bounce on Wall Street and steady crude supply.
According to the U.S. Department of Energy, crude oil supplies were unchanged last week at 311.9 million barrels. At the same time Supplies of gasoline were up 2.0 million barrels in spite of lower imports.
The report also says refinery use was down from 85.3% to 84.6% of capacity last week. Over the past four weeks, gasoline demand was down 1.9% from a year ago and distillate demand was down 4.6% from a year ago.
At the same time The International Energy Agency lowered its forecast of 2009 world oil demand by 670,000 barrels per day to 86.5 million barrels per day. That is still more than the U.S. Energy Department's forecast for 85.9 million barrels per day.
Oil price had touched an all-time high of $147.27 a barrel on 11th July but has corrected from there in the succeeding weeks.
Light, sweet crude oil for November delivery in the New York Mercantile Exchange traded in the range $59.66 - $54.67, before settling at $59 .39a barrel yesterday.
Weekly Crude Oil (DWTI NOVE.)
Expected to trade within the range of $ 63.10 to $59, breaking of either a side makes the direction, Resistances are $65.60 $69, $71.30, Supports seen at $57.20, $53.60 and$ 49.80.
DWTI (November) traded in the range $54.93 - $58.75 and closed at $54.93
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
DGCX Crude (November) - Bullish above $57.80; bearish below $57.20
MCXARUN
9994500540
According to the U.S. Department of Energy, crude oil supplies were unchanged last week at 311.9 million barrels. At the same time Supplies of gasoline were up 2.0 million barrels in spite of lower imports.
The report also says refinery use was down from 85.3% to 84.6% of capacity last week. Over the past four weeks, gasoline demand was down 1.9% from a year ago and distillate demand was down 4.6% from a year ago.
At the same time The International Energy Agency lowered its forecast of 2009 world oil demand by 670,000 barrels per day to 86.5 million barrels per day. That is still more than the U.S. Energy Department's forecast for 85.9 million barrels per day.
Oil price had touched an all-time high of $147.27 a barrel on 11th July but has corrected from there in the succeeding weeks.
Light, sweet crude oil for November delivery in the New York Mercantile Exchange traded in the range $59.66 - $54.67, before settling at $59 .39a barrel yesterday.
Weekly Crude Oil (DWTI NOVE.)
Expected to trade within the range of $ 63.10 to $59, breaking of either a side makes the direction, Resistances are $65.60 $69, $71.30, Supports seen at $57.20, $53.60 and$ 49.80.
DWTI (November) traded in the range $54.93 - $58.75 and closed at $54.93
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
DGCX Crude (November) - Bullish above $57.80; bearish below $57.20
MCXARUN
9994500540
comex Gold Outlook
US Gold futures fell yesterday despite weak dollar and strong crude prices, and ended nearly 2 percent lower due to the liquidation pressure as the tight credit market. Deteriorating global economy and weaker equities, investors cut riskier assets also weighed on gold prices.
Dollar fell against the euro on yesterday after weekly data showed a sharp jump in initial U.S. jobless claims. According to the report, the number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits rose last week to 516,000, the highest level since the weeks following the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks. At the same time The U.S. federal government posted a record high $237 billion budget deficit in the month of October.
China's stimulus packages also failed change the view of the economy. China launched an economic stimulus package on Sunday worth nearly $600 billion for supporting ailing economy. This plan is for 2 years and Funds from the stimulus package will be spent in ten major areas that include low-income housing, rural infrastructure, water, electricity, transportation and improvements in the environment. And also expected it will improve the current global economic condition by improving the domestic demand.
International spot gold traded in the range $736.75 - $700.25 a Troy Ounce and last quoted at $734.30
Weekly Outlook (DG. OCT.)
Expected to trade within the range $761.80 to $727, breaking of either a side makes the direction, Resistances are $745 $762, $778, Supports seen at $717, $707 and$ 683.
Last day DGCX Gold Dec. traded in the range $725.1– $699and closed at $719
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (Dec) - Bullish above $ 719.50 bearish below $ 715.50
MCXARUN
9994500540
Dollar fell against the euro on yesterday after weekly data showed a sharp jump in initial U.S. jobless claims. According to the report, the number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits rose last week to 516,000, the highest level since the weeks following the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks. At the same time The U.S. federal government posted a record high $237 billion budget deficit in the month of October.
China's stimulus packages also failed change the view of the economy. China launched an economic stimulus package on Sunday worth nearly $600 billion for supporting ailing economy. This plan is for 2 years and Funds from the stimulus package will be spent in ten major areas that include low-income housing, rural infrastructure, water, electricity, transportation and improvements in the environment. And also expected it will improve the current global economic condition by improving the domestic demand.
International spot gold traded in the range $736.75 - $700.25 a Troy Ounce and last quoted at $734.30
Weekly Outlook (DG. OCT.)
Expected to trade within the range $761.80 to $727, breaking of either a side makes the direction, Resistances are $745 $762, $778, Supports seen at $717, $707 and$ 683.
Last day DGCX Gold Dec. traded in the range $725.1– $699and closed at $719
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (Dec) - Bullish above $ 719.50 bearish below $ 715.50
MCXARUN
9994500540
SAFE TRADE CALLS
GOLD
Continue to view, as long Resistance 11750/11825 & 11900, down trend likely to continue. for the day sell below 11550 S/L 11610 and T/p 11490-500/ 11450/sustain below towards 11300 in coming days OR sell ard 11815-820 S/L 11830 and T/p 11750 -710 (any time close above 11900/12375/12850/13600/ 14325 bullish while close below 11450/ 11290-250 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
SINCE LAST 20-DAYS OUR DAILY VIEW WAS "as long Resist 17750 down trend continue" AND PRICE ATTEMPT ALMOST 5-6 TIMES ABV 17300 AND FALL TO 16000 YESTERDAY. Continue to view as long Resist of 16575 & 16825 down trend likely to continue. book profit on sell below 16850-800/16550/16500-475, for the day sell only below 16000 S/L 16100 and T/p 15900-800/close below 16000 test 15400 atleast in coming days OR sell ard 16540-560 S/L 16575 and T/p 16430-16350 (any time close below 15975 bearish rally while close above 17750/19000/20550/21400/ 22150/25250/26350/27475/ 28000 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
Continue to view, as long Resistance 2870 & 2950, down trend likely to continue. for the day sell only below 2750 S/L 2770 and T/p 2725-2710 OR sell ard 2912-18 S/L 2925 and T/p 2870-2840 (now crude need to close above 3150/3450/3765/4120/4400/4800/5000/ 5290 for bullish rally while close below 2750 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
PRICE TURN EXACT FROM OUR GIVEN RESISTANCE=186 AS DAYS HIGH WAS 185.95. Continue to view, as long Resistance of 191 & 199, down trend likely to continue. for the day sell only below 180.5 S/L 182.25 and T/p 179.50/177/sustain close below 179.5 towards 165-170 in coming days OR sell ard 190.2-190.5 S/L 191 and T/p 188-187 (upside strong rally only on close above 199/215/234.5/248/270/ 305/316/327/339/351.25/360.5/387/398 while close below 179.5 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
Continue to view, as long Resistance 11750/11825 & 11900, down trend likely to continue. for the day sell below 11550 S/L 11610 and T/p 11490-500/ 11450/sustain below towards 11300 in coming days OR sell ard 11815-820 S/L 11830 and T/p 11750 -710 (any time close above 11900/12375/12850/13600/ 14325 bullish while close below 11450/ 11290-250 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
SINCE LAST 20-DAYS OUR DAILY VIEW WAS "as long Resist 17750 down trend continue" AND PRICE ATTEMPT ALMOST 5-6 TIMES ABV 17300 AND FALL TO 16000 YESTERDAY. Continue to view as long Resist of 16575 & 16825 down trend likely to continue. book profit on sell below 16850-800/16550/16500-475, for the day sell only below 16000 S/L 16100 and T/p 15900-800/close below 16000 test 15400 atleast in coming days OR sell ard 16540-560 S/L 16575 and T/p 16430-16350 (any time close below 15975 bearish rally while close above 17750/19000/20550/21400/ 22150/25250/26350/27475/ 28000 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
Continue to view, as long Resistance 2870 & 2950, down trend likely to continue. for the day sell only below 2750 S/L 2770 and T/p 2725-2710 OR sell ard 2912-18 S/L 2925 and T/p 2870-2840 (now crude need to close above 3150/3450/3765/4120/4400/4800/5000/ 5290 for bullish rally while close below 2750 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
PRICE TURN EXACT FROM OUR GIVEN RESISTANCE=186 AS DAYS HIGH WAS 185.95. Continue to view, as long Resistance of 191 & 199, down trend likely to continue. for the day sell only below 180.5 S/L 182.25 and T/p 179.50/177/sustain close below 179.5 towards 165-170 in coming days OR sell ard 190.2-190.5 S/L 191 and T/p 188-187 (upside strong rally only on close above 199/215/234.5/248/270/ 305/316/327/339/351.25/360.5/387/398 while close below 179.5 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
long view caals
CRUDE OIL NYMEX
LIKELY TO $ 52 / 50 TOWARDS $ 45 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW $ 54.50, ONLY CLOSE ABOVE $ 65.50 & $ 72 CONFIRMS THIS DOWN TREND COMPLETED TEMPORARILY
COPPER
LIKELY TO TEST 175 ATLEAST / TOWARDS 165 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 179.50, ONLY CLOSE ABOVE 199 SOME UPSIDE AGAIN(NOV)
ZINC
LIKELY TO TEST 48 UPTO 45 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 52, ONLY CLOSE ABOVE 64 MAKE SOME UPTREND AGAIN (NOV)
MCXARUN
9994500540
LIKELY TO $ 52 / 50 TOWARDS $ 45 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW $ 54.50, ONLY CLOSE ABOVE $ 65.50 & $ 72 CONFIRMS THIS DOWN TREND COMPLETED TEMPORARILY
COPPER
LIKELY TO TEST 175 ATLEAST / TOWARDS 165 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 179.50, ONLY CLOSE ABOVE 199 SOME UPSIDE AGAIN(NOV)
ZINC
LIKELY TO TEST 48 UPTO 45 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 52, ONLY CLOSE ABOVE 64 MAKE SOME UPTREND AGAIN (NOV)
MCXARUN
9994500540
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Crude Outlook – 12th Nov, 2008
U.S. crude futures settled on Tuesday below $60 a barrel for the first time since March 2007 as demand concerns due to the ailing world economy .Crude futures fell sharply even after a fresh indication from OPEC of another output cut.
China's stimulus packages also failed to hold energy prices at higher levels. China launched an economic stimulus package on Sunday worth nearly $600 billion for supporting ailing economy. This plan is for 2 years and Funds from the stimulus package will be spent in ten major areas that include low-income housing, rural infrastructure, water, electricity, transportation and improvements in the environment. And also expected it will improve the current global economic condition by improving the domestic demand.
In the last week, Crude oil fell to a 22 month low of $59.97 and ended at $61.33 a barrel as concerns about a slowing global economy curbing already slowed oil demand. The falling in oil also supported by the surprise report of a build in U.S. gasoline inventories, which indicated that demand remains weak and crude inventories were flat after five consecutive reports of builds at 0.50 mln barrels. U.S. total oil product demand in the past four weeks fell to 19.10 million barrels per day, down 6.7 percent from a year ago, the EIA reported.
Oil price had touched an all-time high of $147.27 a barrel on 11th July but has corrected from there in the succeeding weeks.
Light, sweet crude oil for November delivery in the New York Mercantile Exchange traded in the range $58.60 - $62.1, before settling at $59 a barrel yesterday.
Weekly Crude Oil (DWTI NOVE.)
Expected to trade within the range of $ 63.10 to $59, breaking of either a side makes the direction, Resistances are $65.60 $69, $71.30, Supports seen at $57.20, $53.60 and$ 49.80.
DWTI (November) traded in the range $61.10 - $58.70 and closed at $59.33
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
DGCX Crude (November) - Bullish above $59.78; bearish below $59.30
MCXARUN
9994500540
China's stimulus packages also failed to hold energy prices at higher levels. China launched an economic stimulus package on Sunday worth nearly $600 billion for supporting ailing economy. This plan is for 2 years and Funds from the stimulus package will be spent in ten major areas that include low-income housing, rural infrastructure, water, electricity, transportation and improvements in the environment. And also expected it will improve the current global economic condition by improving the domestic demand.
In the last week, Crude oil fell to a 22 month low of $59.97 and ended at $61.33 a barrel as concerns about a slowing global economy curbing already slowed oil demand. The falling in oil also supported by the surprise report of a build in U.S. gasoline inventories, which indicated that demand remains weak and crude inventories were flat after five consecutive reports of builds at 0.50 mln barrels. U.S. total oil product demand in the past four weeks fell to 19.10 million barrels per day, down 6.7 percent from a year ago, the EIA reported.
Oil price had touched an all-time high of $147.27 a barrel on 11th July but has corrected from there in the succeeding weeks.
Light, sweet crude oil for November delivery in the New York Mercantile Exchange traded in the range $58.60 - $62.1, before settling at $59 a barrel yesterday.
Weekly Crude Oil (DWTI NOVE.)
Expected to trade within the range of $ 63.10 to $59, breaking of either a side makes the direction, Resistances are $65.60 $69, $71.30, Supports seen at $57.20, $53.60 and$ 49.80.
DWTI (November) traded in the range $61.10 - $58.70 and closed at $59.33
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
DGCX Crude (November) - Bullish above $59.78; bearish below $59.30
MCXARUN
9994500540
Gold Outlook – 12th Nov, 2008
US Gold futures fell yesterday as strong dollar, as well as liquidation pressure because of a tight credit market. Deteriorating global economy and weaker equities, investors cut riskier assets also weighed on gold prices.
Weakness in crude price is another factor affected the precious metals movements. U.S. crude futures settled on Tuesday below $60 a barrel for the first time since March 2007 as demand concerns due to the ailing world economy .Crude futures fell sharply even after a fresh indication from OPEC of another output cut.
China's stimulus packages also failed to hold energy prices at higher levels. China launched an economic stimulus package on Sunday worth nearly $600 billion for supporting ailing economy. This plan is for 2 years and Funds from the stimulus package will be spent in ten major areas that include low-income housing, rural infrastructure, water, electricity, transportation and improvements in the environment. And also expected it will improve the current global economic condition by improving the domestic demand.
At the same time the U.S. Labour Department said that the unemployment rate increased from 6.1% to 6.5% in October, the highest in fourteen years. Non-farm payrolls declined 240,000 in October, a bigger loss than was expected as-200 k.
In the last week US Gold futures recovered despite steady dollar and weak oil prices. Most of the data’s released in the last week were mixed in US and resultant a range bound movements in dollar.
International spot gold traded in the range $749
- $726.10 a Troy Ounce and last quoted at $745.5.
Weekly Outlook (DG. OCT.)
Expected to trade within the range $761.80 to $727, breaking of either a side makes the direction, Resistances are $745 $762, $778, Supports seen at $717, $707 and$ 683.
Last day DGCX Gold Dec. traded in the range $746– $726.50and closed at $733.90
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (Dec) - Bullish above $ 737.50 bearish below $ 732.50
MCXARUN
9994500540
Weakness in crude price is another factor affected the precious metals movements. U.S. crude futures settled on Tuesday below $60 a barrel for the first time since March 2007 as demand concerns due to the ailing world economy .Crude futures fell sharply even after a fresh indication from OPEC of another output cut.
China's stimulus packages also failed to hold energy prices at higher levels. China launched an economic stimulus package on Sunday worth nearly $600 billion for supporting ailing economy. This plan is for 2 years and Funds from the stimulus package will be spent in ten major areas that include low-income housing, rural infrastructure, water, electricity, transportation and improvements in the environment. And also expected it will improve the current global economic condition by improving the domestic demand.
At the same time the U.S. Labour Department said that the unemployment rate increased from 6.1% to 6.5% in October, the highest in fourteen years. Non-farm payrolls declined 240,000 in October, a bigger loss than was expected as-200 k.
In the last week US Gold futures recovered despite steady dollar and weak oil prices. Most of the data’s released in the last week were mixed in US and resultant a range bound movements in dollar.
International spot gold traded in the range $749
- $726.10 a Troy Ounce and last quoted at $745.5.
Weekly Outlook (DG. OCT.)
Expected to trade within the range $761.80 to $727, breaking of either a side makes the direction, Resistances are $745 $762, $778, Supports seen at $717, $707 and$ 683.
Last day DGCX Gold Dec. traded in the range $746– $726.50and closed at $733.90
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (Dec) - Bullish above $ 737.50 bearish below $ 732.50
MCXARUN
9994500540
safe trade calls
GOLD
Continue to view, as long Resistance 11825 & 11900, down trend likely to continue. for the day sell below 11550 S/L 11585 and T/p 11500-450/sustain below towards 11300 in coming days OR sell ard 11810-820 S/L 11825 and T/p 11750-710 (any time close above 11900/12375/12850/13600/14325 bullish while close below 11450/11290-250 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
Continue to view as long Resist of 17050/17300/17550 & 17750 down trend likely to continue. book profit on sell below 16850-800, for the day sell below 16550 & more below 16490 S/L 16625 and T/p 16300 & 16100 and close below 16100 test 15400 atleast in coming days OR sell ard 17120-130 S/L 17150 and T/p 17000-16900 (any time close below 16100-15975 bearish rally while close above 17750/19000/20550/21400/ 22150/25250/26350/27475/28000 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
Crude oil Inventory Schedule to release 2morrow. Continue to view, as long Resistance 3025/3150, down trend likely to continue. for the day sell only below 2860 & more below 2845 S/L 2885 and T/p 2800-2770 OR sell ard 2960-65 S/L 2970 and T/p 2935-2905 (now crude need to close above 3150/ 3450/3765/4120/4400/4800/5000/5290 for bullish rally while close below 2840 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
Continue to view, as long Resistance of 191 & 199, down trend likely to continue. book profit on sell below 187, for the day sell only below 180.5 S/L 181.75 and T/p 179-177/sustain below towards 165-170 in coming days OR sell ard 186.2-186.5 S/L 187 and T/p 185.5/183.5 (upside strong rally only on close above 199/215/234.5/248/270/ 305/316/327/339/351.25/360.5/387/398 while close below 180.5 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
Continue to view, as long Resistance 11825 & 11900, down trend likely to continue. for the day sell below 11550 S/L 11585 and T/p 11500-450/sustain below towards 11300 in coming days OR sell ard 11810-820 S/L 11825 and T/p 11750-710 (any time close above 11900/12375/12850/13600/14325 bullish while close below 11450/11290-250 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
Continue to view as long Resist of 17050/17300/17550 & 17750 down trend likely to continue. book profit on sell below 16850-800, for the day sell below 16550 & more below 16490 S/L 16625 and T/p 16300 & 16100 and close below 16100 test 15400 atleast in coming days OR sell ard 17120-130 S/L 17150 and T/p 17000-16900 (any time close below 16100-15975 bearish rally while close above 17750/19000/20550/21400/ 22150/25250/26350/27475/28000 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
Crude oil Inventory Schedule to release 2morrow. Continue to view, as long Resistance 3025/3150, down trend likely to continue. for the day sell only below 2860 & more below 2845 S/L 2885 and T/p 2800-2770 OR sell ard 2960-65 S/L 2970 and T/p 2935-2905 (now crude need to close above 3150/ 3450/3765/4120/4400/4800/5000/5290 for bullish rally while close below 2840 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
Continue to view, as long Resistance of 191 & 199, down trend likely to continue. book profit on sell below 187, for the day sell only below 180.5 S/L 181.75 and T/p 179-177/sustain below towards 165-170 in coming days OR sell ard 186.2-186.5 S/L 187 and T/p 185.5/183.5 (upside strong rally only on close above 199/215/234.5/248/270/ 305/316/327/339/351.25/360.5/387/398 while close below 180.5 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
important datas
Wednesday, 12 November 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
0030 Australia November Westpac consumer confidence (-11.0%)
0030 Australia Q3 wage cost index (1.2% q/q)
0030 Australia Q3 wage cost index (4.2% y/y)
0100 Australia Secretary Henry speaks
0500 Japan October consumer confidence (31.4)
0930 UK October jobless claims, change (31,800)
0930 UK October claimant count rate (2.9%)
0930 UK September ILO unemployment rate (5.7%)
0930 UK September average earnings
0930 UK September unit wage cost, manufacturing
1000 Eurozone September industrial production (1.1% m/m)
1000 Eurozone September industrial production (-0.7% y/y)
1030 UK Bank of England quarterly inflation report
1200 US MBA mortgage applications
2130 NZ October performance of manufacturing index
2145 NZ September retail sales (0.4%)
2350 Japan October domestic corporate goods price index (-0.4% m/m)
2350 Japan October domestic corporate goods price index (6.8% y/y)
2350 Japan Foreign purchases of Japanese equities and bonds
2350 Japan Japanese purchases of foreign equities and bonds
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
0030 Australia November Westpac consumer confidence (-11.0%)
0030 Australia Q3 wage cost index (1.2% q/q)
0030 Australia Q3 wage cost index (4.2% y/y)
0100 Australia Secretary Henry speaks
0500 Japan October consumer confidence (31.4)
0930 UK October jobless claims, change (31,800)
0930 UK October claimant count rate (2.9%)
0930 UK September ILO unemployment rate (5.7%)
0930 UK September average earnings
0930 UK September unit wage cost, manufacturing
1000 Eurozone September industrial production (1.1% m/m)
1000 Eurozone September industrial production (-0.7% y/y)
1030 UK Bank of England quarterly inflation report
1200 US MBA mortgage applications
2130 NZ October performance of manufacturing index
2145 NZ September retail sales (0.4%)
2350 Japan October domestic corporate goods price index (-0.4% m/m)
2350 Japan October domestic corporate goods price index (6.8% y/y)
2350 Japan Foreign purchases of Japanese equities and bonds
2350 Japan Japanese purchases of foreign equities and bonds
Global outlook – 11th Nov, 2008
Crude continued to dwindle on persistent concerns about curbed demand in a slowing economy as global equities slumped and a stronger dollar added pressure. Crude futures tested below $59 per barrel even after a fresh indication from OPEC of another output cut if prices keep falling. One piece of negative news, such as demand destruction in International Energy Agency report being even worse than expected, or the pull from the large open interest on the $50 puts on the expiring (on Monday) December options and the bottom could fall out. Economic gloom overpowered financial markets again sending global equities and commodities lower. OPEC may cut oil output by another 1 million barrels per day when it meets next month, an OPEC source from one of the group's core members. China's October crude oil imports rose 28.2% from a year ago, fastest since July 2007 and the third-highest daily rate on record, amid a slump in oil prices.
Gold tumbled in the face of a stronger dollar, weaker crude oil and liquidation pressure because of a still-tight credit market. Gold hurt by a higher dollar as a deteriorating global economy and weaker equities cut investor risk appetite. It's difficult to sustain a gold rally until interbank lending improves and liquidation of assets, including gold reduced and dragged down by weaker crude oil that dropped below $60 per barrel on recession worries. Furthermore gold bullion sales by UBS to India increased sharply in the past two weeks, and India's local gold premium suggests demand is strong.
Copper lost more than 7% as demand worries resurfaced; pressuring prices back down to levels seen before Monday's Chinese economic stimulus plan was announced. The euphoria surrounding China's launch of a $600 billion economic stimulus package to shore up its slowing growth fades. China's 4 trillion Yuan ($586 billion) stimulus plan will only have a gradual effect on the country's base metals industry, according to the vice president of the state-controlled China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association. Negative sentiment toward global growth and commodity demand keep the bears fully in control of industrial commodity markets for the foreseeable future. Copper's bearish momentum deepens despite positive trade data from China, the world's leading metals consumer. China's imports of unwrought copper and semi-finished copper products surged to 231,212 tonnes in October, versus September's 213,782 tonnes. Fears of waning demand reflected in steady inventory builds in London Metal Exchange-registered warehouses.
Indian rupee closed at its lowest in a week as a sharp fall in the domestic equity market raised concerns of more foreigners repatriating funds, pressuring the currency lower. Importers were there in the market but most of the demand was from the FIIs. Foreign institutional investors have bought shares worth $500 million in November, but have been net sellers of $12.6 billion so far in 2008.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Gold tumbled in the face of a stronger dollar, weaker crude oil and liquidation pressure because of a still-tight credit market. Gold hurt by a higher dollar as a deteriorating global economy and weaker equities cut investor risk appetite. It's difficult to sustain a gold rally until interbank lending improves and liquidation of assets, including gold reduced and dragged down by weaker crude oil that dropped below $60 per barrel on recession worries. Furthermore gold bullion sales by UBS to India increased sharply in the past two weeks, and India's local gold premium suggests demand is strong.
Copper lost more than 7% as demand worries resurfaced; pressuring prices back down to levels seen before Monday's Chinese economic stimulus plan was announced. The euphoria surrounding China's launch of a $600 billion economic stimulus package to shore up its slowing growth fades. China's 4 trillion Yuan ($586 billion) stimulus plan will only have a gradual effect on the country's base metals industry, according to the vice president of the state-controlled China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association. Negative sentiment toward global growth and commodity demand keep the bears fully in control of industrial commodity markets for the foreseeable future. Copper's bearish momentum deepens despite positive trade data from China, the world's leading metals consumer. China's imports of unwrought copper and semi-finished copper products surged to 231,212 tonnes in October, versus September's 213,782 tonnes. Fears of waning demand reflected in steady inventory builds in London Metal Exchange-registered warehouses.
Indian rupee closed at its lowest in a week as a sharp fall in the domestic equity market raised concerns of more foreigners repatriating funds, pressuring the currency lower. Importers were there in the market but most of the demand was from the FIIs. Foreign institutional investors have bought shares worth $500 million in November, but have been net sellers of $12.6 billion so far in 2008.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Commodity prices will rise again soon
The G-20 meeting in Brazil over the weekend has unwittingly set the foundations for the devaluation of cash, rise of commodity stocks and the turn of the market worldwide.
It does not pay off any more to hoard cash in savings accounts soon paying little more than 1 to 2 per cent. Money has to be diverted to more profitable investments and, in the middle of this development, the turn of the market is in sight.
Among other recommendations, the G-20 meeting, while admiring those Governments which have already taken or going to take bold action, advises Governments to cut interest rates further and to spend. This resonates with President-Elect Obama's plans and his ambitious infrastructure reconstruction programme and China's weekend announcement of a nearly $600 billion investment project for rebuilding houses destroyed in the summer earthquake and still more infrastructure projects: railroads, airports, subways and bridges.
Though in doing so China may wish to benefit from current relatively lower commodity prices, such projects will inevitably lead to revaluation of commodities.
The recent decline of commodities is going to be a short-term story as the same recession that caused the fear of declining construction and reduced use of steel and copper is going to increase the use of these metals.
This could be to colossal proportions through policy developments as more Governments in advanced economies as well as emerging ones start borrowing at low interest rates for a number of projects including re-building railways, roads, bridges and airports in order to keep their populations employed.
MCXARUN
9994500540
It does not pay off any more to hoard cash in savings accounts soon paying little more than 1 to 2 per cent. Money has to be diverted to more profitable investments and, in the middle of this development, the turn of the market is in sight.
Among other recommendations, the G-20 meeting, while admiring those Governments which have already taken or going to take bold action, advises Governments to cut interest rates further and to spend. This resonates with President-Elect Obama's plans and his ambitious infrastructure reconstruction programme and China's weekend announcement of a nearly $600 billion investment project for rebuilding houses destroyed in the summer earthquake and still more infrastructure projects: railroads, airports, subways and bridges.
Though in doing so China may wish to benefit from current relatively lower commodity prices, such projects will inevitably lead to revaluation of commodities.
The recent decline of commodities is going to be a short-term story as the same recession that caused the fear of declining construction and reduced use of steel and copper is going to increase the use of these metals.
This could be to colossal proportions through policy developments as more Governments in advanced economies as well as emerging ones start borrowing at low interest rates for a number of projects including re-building railways, roads, bridges and airports in order to keep their populations employed.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
safe trade calls
GOLD
Continue to view, as long Resistance 11825 & 11900, down trend likely to continue. for the day sell below 11525 S/L 11555 and T/p 11485-450/sustain below towards 11300 and close below 11260 test 10750 atleast in coming days OR sell ard 11810-820 S/L 11825 and T/p 11750-710 (any time close above 11900/12375/12850/13600/14325 bullish while close below 11450/11290-250 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
Continue to view as long Resist of 17300/17550 & 17750 down trend likely to continue. for the day sell below 16850 & more below 16800 S/L 16950 and T/p 16730/16575-600/sustain below towards 16300 & 16100 and close below 16100 test 15400 atleast in coming days OR sell ard 17265-280 S/L 17300 and T/p 17200-140 upto 17050 (any time close below 16100-15975 bearish rally while close above 17750/ 19000/20550/21400/22150/25250/ 26350/27475/28000 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
PRICE TURN EXACT FROM BOTH SIDES AS OUR SUPPORT=2850 & TURN FROM LOW OF 2581 WHILE RESISTANCE WAS 3150 & TURN FROM HIGH=3145. Continue to view, as long Resistance 3150, down trend likely to continue. book profit on sell below 2940, for the day sell only below 2850 S/L 2875 and T/p 2800 OR sell ard 3020-25 S/L 3030 and T/p 2980-65/2940 (now crude need to close above 3150/ 3450/3765/4120/4400/4800/5000/5290 for bullish rally while close below 2850 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
Continue to view, as long Resistance of 199 & 215, down trend likely to continue. for the day sell below 187 S/L 188.50 and T/p towards 184.50/sustain close below towards 165-170 in coming days OR sell ard 196.25-196.50 S/L 197 and T/p 194.50/192.50 (upside strong rally only on close above 215/234.5/ 248/270/305/316/327/339/351.25/ 360.5/387/398 while close below 184.5 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
Continue to view, as long Resistance 11825 & 11900, down trend likely to continue. for the day sell below 11525 S/L 11555 and T/p 11485-450/sustain below towards 11300 and close below 11260 test 10750 atleast in coming days OR sell ard 11810-820 S/L 11825 and T/p 11750-710 (any time close above 11900/12375/12850/13600/14325 bullish while close below 11450/11290-250 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
Continue to view as long Resist of 17300/17550 & 17750 down trend likely to continue. for the day sell below 16850 & more below 16800 S/L 16950 and T/p 16730/16575-600/sustain below towards 16300 & 16100 and close below 16100 test 15400 atleast in coming days OR sell ard 17265-280 S/L 17300 and T/p 17200-140 upto 17050 (any time close below 16100-15975 bearish rally while close above 17750/ 19000/20550/21400/22150/25250/ 26350/27475/28000 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
PRICE TURN EXACT FROM BOTH SIDES AS OUR SUPPORT=2850 & TURN FROM LOW OF 2581 WHILE RESISTANCE WAS 3150 & TURN FROM HIGH=3145. Continue to view, as long Resistance 3150, down trend likely to continue. book profit on sell below 2940, for the day sell only below 2850 S/L 2875 and T/p 2800 OR sell ard 3020-25 S/L 3030 and T/p 2980-65/2940 (now crude need to close above 3150/ 3450/3765/4120/4400/4800/5000/5290 for bullish rally while close below 2850 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
Continue to view, as long Resistance of 199 & 215, down trend likely to continue. for the day sell below 187 S/L 188.50 and T/p towards 184.50/sustain close below towards 165-170 in coming days OR sell ard 196.25-196.50 S/L 197 and T/p 194.50/192.50 (upside strong rally only on close above 215/234.5/ 248/270/305/316/327/339/351.25/ 360.5/387/398 while close below 184.5 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
Friday, November 7, 2008
safe trade calls
GOLD
THIS WAS OUR VIEW YESTERDAY "sell ard 11765-70 S/L 11780 and T/p 11710-650" AND SEE PRICE TURN FROM HIGH=11767 AFTER THAT MAKE LOW OF 11450 (SMALL S/L BIG PROFIT) Continue to view, as long Resistance 11775 & 11900, down trend likely to continue. book profit on sell ard 11765, for the day sell only below 11450 S/L 11485 and T/p 11400/towards 11300 OR sell ard 11715-20 S/L 11730 and T/p 11675-600 (any time close above 11900/12375/12850/13600/14325 bullish while close below 11450/11290-250 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
SINCE LAST MANY DAYS OUR VIEW WAS DOWN TREND AND SEE PRICE WAS RALLY ALMOST 5-6 TIMES BUT FAIL TO BREAK OUR LEVEL AND FALL AGAIN SHARPLY. Continue to view as long Resist of 17250/17550 & 17750 down trend likely to continue. for the day sell only below 16725 S/L 16830 and T/p 16575-600/sustain below towards 16300 & 16100 and close below 16100 test 15400 atleast in coming days OR sell ard 17220-230 S/L 17250 and T/p 17150-17000 (any time close below 16100-15975 bearish rally while close above 17750/19000/20550/ 21400/22150/25250/26350/27475/ 28000 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
THIS WAS OUR VIEW YESTERDAY "sustain close below 3045 test 2900-2890 atleast in coming days" & SEE PRICE MAKE LOW OF 2920. Continue to view, as long Resistance 3150, down trend likely to continue. book profit on sell below 3130, for the day sell only below 2920 S/L 2945 and T/p 2900-2890/sustain below towards 2825 OR sell ard 3060-70 S/L 3075 and T/p 3030-3000 (now crude need to close above 3450/3765/4120/4400/4800/5000/5290 for bullish rally while close below 2920 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
Continue to view, as long Resistance of 196/206 & 215, down trend likely to continue. book profit on sell below 195, for the day sell only below 186 S/L 188 and T/p 184-83/180/sustain close below 186 towards 170-165 in coming days OR sell ard 193.2-193.50 S/L 194 and T/p 191/189 (upside strong rally only on close above 215/234.5/248/270/305/ 316/327/339/ 351.25/360.5/387/398 while close below 186 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
THIS WAS OUR VIEW YESTERDAY "sell ard 11765-70 S/L 11780 and T/p 11710-650" AND SEE PRICE TURN FROM HIGH=11767 AFTER THAT MAKE LOW OF 11450 (SMALL S/L BIG PROFIT) Continue to view, as long Resistance 11775 & 11900, down trend likely to continue. book profit on sell ard 11765, for the day sell only below 11450 S/L 11485 and T/p 11400/towards 11300 OR sell ard 11715-20 S/L 11730 and T/p 11675-600 (any time close above 11900/12375/12850/13600/14325 bullish while close below 11450/11290-250 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
SINCE LAST MANY DAYS OUR VIEW WAS DOWN TREND AND SEE PRICE WAS RALLY ALMOST 5-6 TIMES BUT FAIL TO BREAK OUR LEVEL AND FALL AGAIN SHARPLY. Continue to view as long Resist of 17250/17550 & 17750 down trend likely to continue. for the day sell only below 16725 S/L 16830 and T/p 16575-600/sustain below towards 16300 & 16100 and close below 16100 test 15400 atleast in coming days OR sell ard 17220-230 S/L 17250 and T/p 17150-17000 (any time close below 16100-15975 bearish rally while close above 17750/19000/20550/ 21400/22150/25250/26350/27475/ 28000 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
THIS WAS OUR VIEW YESTERDAY "sustain close below 3045 test 2900-2890 atleast in coming days" & SEE PRICE MAKE LOW OF 2920. Continue to view, as long Resistance 3150, down trend likely to continue. book profit on sell below 3130, for the day sell only below 2920 S/L 2945 and T/p 2900-2890/sustain below towards 2825 OR sell ard 3060-70 S/L 3075 and T/p 3030-3000 (now crude need to close above 3450/3765/4120/4400/4800/5000/5290 for bullish rally while close below 2920 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
Continue to view, as long Resistance of 196/206 & 215, down trend likely to continue. book profit on sell below 195, for the day sell only below 186 S/L 188 and T/p 184-83/180/sustain close below 186 towards 170-165 in coming days OR sell ard 193.2-193.50 S/L 194 and T/p 191/189 (upside strong rally only on close above 215/234.5/248/270/305/ 316/327/339/ 351.25/360.5/387/398 while close below 186 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
Thursday, November 6, 2008
safe trade calls
GOLD
PRICE TURN EXACT FROM OUR GIVEN RESISTANCE=11775 AS DAYS HIGH=11778. Continue to view, as long Resistance 11775 & 11900, down trend likely to continue. book profit on sell below 11575, for the day sell only below 11470 S/L 11505 and T/p 11410/ towards 11300 in coming days OR sell ard 11765-70 S/L 11780 and T/p 11710-650 (any time close above 11900/ 12375/12850/13600/14325 bullish while close below 11470/11290-250 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
Continue to view as long Resist of 17250/17375/17550 & 17750 down trend likely to continue. for the day sell below 16800 S/L 16875 and T/p 16730-675/ 16575/sustain below towards 16250 & 16100 and close below 16100 test 15400 atleast in coming days OR sell ard 17520-530 S/L 17550 and T/p 17375 -250 (any time close below 16100-15975 bearish rally while close above 17750/19000/20550/21400/22150/ 25250/26350/27475/28000 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
Continue to view, as long Resistance 3320/3375/3420 & 3450, down trend likely to continue. for the day sell below 3130 S/L 3150 and T/p 3095-3100/3070/ 3045/sustain close below 3045 test 2900-2890 atleast in coming days OR sell ard 3250-55 S/L 3260 and T/p 3225-3200 (now crude need to close above 3450/3765/4120/4400/4800/5000/5290 for bullish rally while close below 3040 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
ontinue to view, as long Resistance of 206 & 215, down trend likely to continue. for the day sell only below 195 S/L 197.25 and T/p towards 190-188.50/ sustain close below towards 170 atleast in coming days OR sell ard 202.50-203 S/L 203.50 and T/p 200.75-199 (upside strong rally only on close above 215/ 234.5/248/270/305/316/327/339/ 351.25/360.5/387/398 while close below 195/188.5 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
PRICE TURN EXACT FROM OUR GIVEN RESISTANCE=11775 AS DAYS HIGH=11778. Continue to view, as long Resistance 11775 & 11900, down trend likely to continue. book profit on sell below 11575, for the day sell only below 11470 S/L 11505 and T/p 11410/ towards 11300 in coming days OR sell ard 11765-70 S/L 11780 and T/p 11710-650 (any time close above 11900/ 12375/12850/13600/14325 bullish while close below 11470/11290-250 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
Continue to view as long Resist of 17250/17375/17550 & 17750 down trend likely to continue. for the day sell below 16800 S/L 16875 and T/p 16730-675/ 16575/sustain below towards 16250 & 16100 and close below 16100 test 15400 atleast in coming days OR sell ard 17520-530 S/L 17550 and T/p 17375 -250 (any time close below 16100-15975 bearish rally while close above 17750/19000/20550/21400/22150/ 25250/26350/27475/28000 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
Continue to view, as long Resistance 3320/3375/3420 & 3450, down trend likely to continue. for the day sell below 3130 S/L 3150 and T/p 3095-3100/3070/ 3045/sustain close below 3045 test 2900-2890 atleast in coming days OR sell ard 3250-55 S/L 3260 and T/p 3225-3200 (now crude need to close above 3450/3765/4120/4400/4800/5000/5290 for bullish rally while close below 3040 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
ontinue to view, as long Resistance of 206 & 215, down trend likely to continue. for the day sell only below 195 S/L 197.25 and T/p towards 190-188.50/ sustain close below towards 170 atleast in coming days OR sell ard 202.50-203 S/L 203.50 and T/p 200.75-199 (upside strong rally only on close above 215/ 234.5/248/270/305/316/327/339/ 351.25/360.5/387/398 while close below 195/188.5 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
outlook
Gold remained nervous as investors ditched the dollar and moved to commodities and stocks, relieved that election would end the uncertainty of the long U.S. presidential campaign. Gold futures supported as the dollar endured its biggest one-day drop against a basket of currencies in 13 years. A recovery of oil prices due to an output cut by Saudi Arabia, a more optimistic equity outlook and easier credit cited. Bullion also supported by signs that a global recession seemed averted for the moment. U.S. stocks were 3% higher in afternoon trade. Active buying during the Europe sessions and lower Libor rates helped boost gold buying.
Crude tumbled more than $5 after a government inventory report showed gasoline supplies rose unexpectedly last week, even as crude supplies were flat and distillate supplies rose. Crude oil prices have been under pressure due to sliding demand and concern a slow economy will further curb petroleum use. Crude inventories were flat after five consecutive reports of builds, while gasoline stockpiles surged unexpectedly, according to government data. For the week crude-oil inventories remained at 311.9 million barrels, which is 1.5% above year-ago levels, according to the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration in its weekly report. Analysts had expected a boost of 500,000 barrels, according to a survey by Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos. Gasoline inventories surged by 1.1 million barrels, or 0.6%, to 196.1 million barrels, which is 1.3% below year-ago levels. However analysts expected stockpiles of the motor fuel to fall by 1.1 million barrels. Demand for gasoline over the four weeks was 2.3% lower than a year earlier, averaging 9 million barrels a day. At the same time, U.S. refineries ran at 85.3% of total capacity on average, unchanged from the prior week. However analysts expected capacity to rise 0.2% to 85.5%.
Copper shed nearly 6% to lead other industrial metals lower as inventories rose and the strong dollar weighed after the U.S. election. The dollar rose against a basket of major currencies after posting its biggest one-day slide in 13 years as Democrat Barack Obama won the U.S. presidential election. Prices of the metal, used in power and construction, have fallen more than 50% since a record high of $8,940 in July. Poor demand for copper is mirrored by the continuous jumps in inventories. Stocks of the metal in LME registered warehouses jumped 5,825 tonnes, bringing the total to 247,475 tonnes. The stocks have risen more than 35,000 tonnes in the last two weeks alone. The collapse in copper prices since July has forced more than 40 percent of China's refined copper capacity to slow production, and may cost the market as much as 120,000 tonnes in lost metal in 2008. This is equivalent to 3% of China's total copper production or one month of refined imports
Courtesy: Religare Commodities
MCXARUN
9994500540
Crude tumbled more than $5 after a government inventory report showed gasoline supplies rose unexpectedly last week, even as crude supplies were flat and distillate supplies rose. Crude oil prices have been under pressure due to sliding demand and concern a slow economy will further curb petroleum use. Crude inventories were flat after five consecutive reports of builds, while gasoline stockpiles surged unexpectedly, according to government data. For the week crude-oil inventories remained at 311.9 million barrels, which is 1.5% above year-ago levels, according to the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration in its weekly report. Analysts had expected a boost of 500,000 barrels, according to a survey by Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos. Gasoline inventories surged by 1.1 million barrels, or 0.6%, to 196.1 million barrels, which is 1.3% below year-ago levels. However analysts expected stockpiles of the motor fuel to fall by 1.1 million barrels. Demand for gasoline over the four weeks was 2.3% lower than a year earlier, averaging 9 million barrels a day. At the same time, U.S. refineries ran at 85.3% of total capacity on average, unchanged from the prior week. However analysts expected capacity to rise 0.2% to 85.5%.
Copper shed nearly 6% to lead other industrial metals lower as inventories rose and the strong dollar weighed after the U.S. election. The dollar rose against a basket of major currencies after posting its biggest one-day slide in 13 years as Democrat Barack Obama won the U.S. presidential election. Prices of the metal, used in power and construction, have fallen more than 50% since a record high of $8,940 in July. Poor demand for copper is mirrored by the continuous jumps in inventories. Stocks of the metal in LME registered warehouses jumped 5,825 tonnes, bringing the total to 247,475 tonnes. The stocks have risen more than 35,000 tonnes in the last two weeks alone. The collapse in copper prices since July has forced more than 40 percent of China's refined copper capacity to slow production, and may cost the market as much as 120,000 tonnes in lost metal in 2008. This is equivalent to 3% of China's total copper production or one month of refined imports
Courtesy: Religare Commodities
MCXARUN
9994500540
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
target hit
as per our technical chart our first target hit,
we book partial profit, and wait for second target
this is that chart posted last day
contact for intraday & shorttime calls
MCXARUN
9994500540
we book partial profit, and wait for second target
this is that chart posted last day
contact for intraday & shorttime calls
MCXARUN
9994500540
safe trade calls
GOLD
RICE TURN EXACT FROM OUR GIVEN SUPPORT=11475 AS DAYS LOW WAS 11476. Continue to view, as long Resistance 11810/11900 & 12150, down trend likely to continue. for the day sell only below 11575 & 11550 S/L 11600 and T/p 11480-475/sustain below towards 11300 in coming days OR buy only abv 11880-11900 S/L 11850 and T/p 11960-12025 (any time close above 12375/12850/13600/14325 bullish while close below 11475/11290-250 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
Continue to view as long Resist of 17225/17375/17550 & 17750 down trend likely to continue. for the day sell below 16675 S/L 16750 and T/p 16575-600/ sustain below towards 16300-325/below towards 16100 and close below 16100 test 15400 atleast in coming days OR sell ard 17340-350 S/L 17375 and T/p 17250/towards 17000 (any time close below 16100-15975 bearish rally while close above 17750/19000/20550/21400/ 22150/25250/26350/27475/28000 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
THIS WAS OUR VIEW YESTERDAY "sustain below 3150 test 3025-40 atleast" & MAKE LOW OF 3046. Continue to view, as long Resistance 3375/3420 & 3450, down trend likely to continue. for the day buy only abv 3420 & more abv 3450 S/L 3380 and T/p 3550-3600 in coming days OR buy ard 3160-62 S/L 3150 and T/p 3190-3220 upto 3250 (now crude need to close above 3450/3765/4120/4400/4800/5000/ 5290 for bullish rally while close below 3040 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
Continue to view, as long Resistance of 212.5 & 215, down trend likely to continue. for the day sell below 201 S/L 202.25 and T/p 198.75-197.5/195/ sustain below towards 189 OR sell ard 314.3-214.5 S/L 215 and T/p 212.50/209 upto 205 (upside strong rally only on close above 215/234.5/248/270/305/ 316/327/339/351.25/360.5/387/398 while close below 195/188.5 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
RICE TURN EXACT FROM OUR GIVEN SUPPORT=11475 AS DAYS LOW WAS 11476. Continue to view, as long Resistance 11810/11900 & 12150, down trend likely to continue. for the day sell only below 11575 & 11550 S/L 11600 and T/p 11480-475/sustain below towards 11300 in coming days OR buy only abv 11880-11900 S/L 11850 and T/p 11960-12025 (any time close above 12375/12850/13600/14325 bullish while close below 11475/11290-250 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
Continue to view as long Resist of 17225/17375/17550 & 17750 down trend likely to continue. for the day sell below 16675 S/L 16750 and T/p 16575-600/ sustain below towards 16300-325/below towards 16100 and close below 16100 test 15400 atleast in coming days OR sell ard 17340-350 S/L 17375 and T/p 17250/towards 17000 (any time close below 16100-15975 bearish rally while close above 17750/19000/20550/21400/ 22150/25250/26350/27475/28000 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
THIS WAS OUR VIEW YESTERDAY "sustain below 3150 test 3025-40 atleast" & MAKE LOW OF 3046. Continue to view, as long Resistance 3375/3420 & 3450, down trend likely to continue. for the day buy only abv 3420 & more abv 3450 S/L 3380 and T/p 3550-3600 in coming days OR buy ard 3160-62 S/L 3150 and T/p 3190-3220 upto 3250 (now crude need to close above 3450/3765/4120/4400/4800/5000/ 5290 for bullish rally while close below 3040 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
Continue to view, as long Resistance of 212.5 & 215, down trend likely to continue. for the day sell below 201 S/L 202.25 and T/p 198.75-197.5/195/ sustain below towards 189 OR sell ard 314.3-214.5 S/L 215 and T/p 212.50/209 upto 205 (upside strong rally only on close above 215/234.5/248/270/305/ 316/327/339/351.25/360.5/387/398 while close below 195/188.5 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
OUTLOOK
Bullion
Bullion prices traded on the higher side in yesterday’s sessions as the dollar was seen
letting off it gains against the euro ahead of the presidential election in the nation.
Speculation that the democratic candidate Senator Obama who leads the national
polls, will win against the Republican, helped send the dollar lower and lift the
commodity and equity markets. Given varied views and plans of the divergent party
heads, the impact of the likely presidential candidate, is different on the markets.
With democrats, there is an assumption of potentially more inflation given their
spending plans. Obama has called for a second economic stimulus package valued at
$175 billion to help revive U.S. growth. This idea of higher inflation is likely to
increase the appeal of the commodities as an inflation hedge hence resulting in a
relief rally in prices.
For the day, the expected decline in the ISM non-manufacturing index is likely to
weigh down the US dollar and prove positive for bullion. However the ECB interest
rates due be released tomorrow and expectation of 50 basis cut by ECB may cap the
gains for the metal.
Crude oil
Crude oil prices were seen to take a pullback in yesterday’s trading session as the
weaker US dollar prompts this rally in the market. Prices made a high of $71.77 per
barrel as the dollar seemed to lose it gains on the Election Day. Given the additional
stimulus of $175 billion dollars proposed by the democrat Obama and increasing bets
of him coming into power, worked positive for all the commodities. Hence oil prices
were boosted by the biggest presidential-election day rally in the U.S. stock markets
in 24 years and the fading dollar. In addition, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates,
OPEC’s first and fourth-largest oil producer, implementing the supply cuts agreed on
by the group is also proving to be positive for prices.
On the electronic session today prices are presently trading below $70 per barrel as
the relief rally yesterday leads to profit booking. According to the DOE the crude and
distillate stocks are likely to post an increase compared to decline expected in
gasoline stockpiles. As per the expectation the data is likely to have a mixed impact
on prices; however the actual numbers need to be looked in for further direction. For
the day prices are likely to remain on the sidelines ahead of the inventory data.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Bullion prices traded on the higher side in yesterday’s sessions as the dollar was seen
letting off it gains against the euro ahead of the presidential election in the nation.
Speculation that the democratic candidate Senator Obama who leads the national
polls, will win against the Republican, helped send the dollar lower and lift the
commodity and equity markets. Given varied views and plans of the divergent party
heads, the impact of the likely presidential candidate, is different on the markets.
With democrats, there is an assumption of potentially more inflation given their
spending plans. Obama has called for a second economic stimulus package valued at
$175 billion to help revive U.S. growth. This idea of higher inflation is likely to
increase the appeal of the commodities as an inflation hedge hence resulting in a
relief rally in prices.
For the day, the expected decline in the ISM non-manufacturing index is likely to
weigh down the US dollar and prove positive for bullion. However the ECB interest
rates due be released tomorrow and expectation of 50 basis cut by ECB may cap the
gains for the metal.
Crude oil
Crude oil prices were seen to take a pullback in yesterday’s trading session as the
weaker US dollar prompts this rally in the market. Prices made a high of $71.77 per
barrel as the dollar seemed to lose it gains on the Election Day. Given the additional
stimulus of $175 billion dollars proposed by the democrat Obama and increasing bets
of him coming into power, worked positive for all the commodities. Hence oil prices
were boosted by the biggest presidential-election day rally in the U.S. stock markets
in 24 years and the fading dollar. In addition, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates,
OPEC’s first and fourth-largest oil producer, implementing the supply cuts agreed on
by the group is also proving to be positive for prices.
On the electronic session today prices are presently trading below $70 per barrel as
the relief rally yesterday leads to profit booking. According to the DOE the crude and
distillate stocks are likely to post an increase compared to decline expected in
gasoline stockpiles. As per the expectation the data is likely to have a mixed impact
on prices; however the actual numbers need to be looked in for further direction. For
the day prices are likely to remain on the sidelines ahead of the inventory data.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Global Recap – 4th Oct, 2008
Crude oil jumped nearly 8% on signs Saudi Arabia had made substantial cuts in its crude supply and as global markets rallied. Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil exporter, has reduced exports by around 900,000 barrels per day from a peak in August, one source estimated. The petroleum markets have rebounded from lower overnight levels on a trio of supportive factors: a weaker U.S. dollar, a push to the upside in global equity markets and market talk that Saudi Arabia may have already cut crude oil production. Moreover Saudi Arabia's supply cut helps to remove doubts about whether the world's top exporter would comply quickly with a 1.5 million barrel per day output cut agreed by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in Vienna last month. The United Arab Emirates has reduced its production to around 2.3 million barrels per day from around 2.5 million bpd, a top state oil company official said.
Gold and silver surged sharply on a combination of a weaker dollar, the rise in oil and a calmer atmosphere in the global markets amid strength across the commodity sector. Gold is supported by weaker dollar as investors awaited results of U.S. Presidential election. Gold, silver rallied as credit markets thawed and as the Federal Reserve injected more liquidity. Active buying during the Europe sessions and lower Libor rates helped boost gold buying. A combination of a string of central bank rate cuts and a win by Senator Barack Obama may buoy the dollar and pressure gold.
Factory orders dropped for the second straight month in September as businesses cut back on purchases of steel, computers and other equipment amid the economic downturn, according to the government report. The Commerce Department said factory orders tumbled by 2.5% from August, much worse than the 0.7% drop analysts expected. That's on top of a revised 4.3% decline in August.
Industrial metals climbed higher with copper rallying more than 5% as rising equity markets and a weak dollar boosted prices. Copper is lacking direction and is looking to external factors. European shares surged 2% by mid-session while the dollar slipped against the Euro and yen, boosting commodity prices across the board, including oil and gold. About 2 million tonnes of China's 4.6 million tonnes of refined copper capacity are reducing production rates and cuts may continue through the first quarter of next year, according to the smelter officials. The long-term outlook on copper is very bearish as many Chinese fabricators are cutting production on slumping demand. Poor demand for copper is reflected by the continuous jumps in inventories. Stocks of the metal in LME registered warehouses jumped another couple of thousand tonnes, bringing the total to 241,650 tonnes -- it’s highest since March 2004.
Courtesy: Religare Commodities
MCXARUN
9994500540
Gold and silver surged sharply on a combination of a weaker dollar, the rise in oil and a calmer atmosphere in the global markets amid strength across the commodity sector. Gold is supported by weaker dollar as investors awaited results of U.S. Presidential election. Gold, silver rallied as credit markets thawed and as the Federal Reserve injected more liquidity. Active buying during the Europe sessions and lower Libor rates helped boost gold buying. A combination of a string of central bank rate cuts and a win by Senator Barack Obama may buoy the dollar and pressure gold.
Factory orders dropped for the second straight month in September as businesses cut back on purchases of steel, computers and other equipment amid the economic downturn, according to the government report. The Commerce Department said factory orders tumbled by 2.5% from August, much worse than the 0.7% drop analysts expected. That's on top of a revised 4.3% decline in August.
Industrial metals climbed higher with copper rallying more than 5% as rising equity markets and a weak dollar boosted prices. Copper is lacking direction and is looking to external factors. European shares surged 2% by mid-session while the dollar slipped against the Euro and yen, boosting commodity prices across the board, including oil and gold. About 2 million tonnes of China's 4.6 million tonnes of refined copper capacity are reducing production rates and cuts may continue through the first quarter of next year, according to the smelter officials. The long-term outlook on copper is very bearish as many Chinese fabricators are cutting production on slumping demand. Poor demand for copper is reflected by the continuous jumps in inventories. Stocks of the metal in LME registered warehouses jumped another couple of thousand tonnes, bringing the total to 241,650 tonnes -- it’s highest since March 2004.
Courtesy: Religare Commodities
MCXARUN
9994500540
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
safe trade calls
GOLD
Continue to view, as long Resistance 11780/11900 & 12150, down trend likely to continue. book profit on sell below 12050/11700/11585. for the day sell only below 11540 S/L 11565 and T/p 11480-475/sustain below 11540 seen towards 11300 in coming days OR sell ard 11780-790 S/L 11800 and T/p 11725/11670 (any time close above 12375/12850/13600/14325 bullish while close below 11540/11290-250 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
Continue to view as long Resist of 17375/17550 & 17750 down trend likely to continue. for the day sell only below 16600 S/L 16710 and T/p 16510/16400/ 16315-265/16100/sustain close below towards 15400 atleast in coming days OR sell ard 17050-17075 S/L 17100 and T/p 16950-850 (any time close below 16100-15975 bearish rally while close above 17750/19000/20550/21400/ 22150/25250/26350/27475/28000 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
Continue to view, as long Resist 3420 & 3450, down trend likely to continue. book profit on sell below 3320, for the day sell below 3150 S/L 3175 and T/p 3110-3100/sustain close below 3150 test 3025-40 atleast in coming days OR sell ard 3288-95 S/L 3300 and T/p 3250-30(now crude need to close above 3450/3765/4120/4400/4800/5000/5290 for bullish rally while close below 3150 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
Continue to view, as long Resistance of 212 & 215, down trend likely to continue. book profit on sell below 223.5/205.5/205, for the day sell below 201 S/L 202.5 and T/p 199.5/197.5-196/ sustain below towards 188.5 and close below 188.5 test 167-170 atleast in coming days OR sell ard 209.2-209.5 S/L 210 and T/p 207.5/205.5 (upside strong rally only on close above 215/ 234.5/248/270/305/316/327/339/ 351.25/360.5/387/398 while close below 195.5/188.5 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
Continue to view, as long Resistance 11780/11900 & 12150, down trend likely to continue. book profit on sell below 12050/11700/11585. for the day sell only below 11540 S/L 11565 and T/p 11480-475/sustain below 11540 seen towards 11300 in coming days OR sell ard 11780-790 S/L 11800 and T/p 11725/11670 (any time close above 12375/12850/13600/14325 bullish while close below 11540/11290-250 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
Continue to view as long Resist of 17375/17550 & 17750 down trend likely to continue. for the day sell only below 16600 S/L 16710 and T/p 16510/16400/ 16315-265/16100/sustain close below towards 15400 atleast in coming days OR sell ard 17050-17075 S/L 17100 and T/p 16950-850 (any time close below 16100-15975 bearish rally while close above 17750/19000/20550/21400/ 22150/25250/26350/27475/28000 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
Continue to view, as long Resist 3420 & 3450, down trend likely to continue. book profit on sell below 3320, for the day sell below 3150 S/L 3175 and T/p 3110-3100/sustain close below 3150 test 3025-40 atleast in coming days OR sell ard 3288-95 S/L 3300 and T/p 3250-30(now crude need to close above 3450/3765/4120/4400/4800/5000/
COPPER
Continue to view, as long Resistance of 212 & 215, down trend likely to continue. book profit on sell below 223.5/205.5/205, for the day sell below 201 S/L 202.5 and T/p 199.5/197.5-196/ sustain below towards 188.5 and close below 188.5 test 167-170 atleast in coming days OR sell ard 209.2-209.5 S/L 210 and T/p 207.5/205.5 (upside strong rally only on close above 215/ 234.5/248/270/305/316/327/339/ 351.25/360.5/387/398 while close below 195.5/188.5 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
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