safe trade calls

GOLD

THIS WAS OUR WORDS SINCE LAST 1-WEEK "as long Resistance 11950 down trend continue" AND SEE PRICE TURN EXACT FROM SAME LEVEL YESTERDAY=11945. Continue to view as long Resistance 11950, down trend continue. for the day sell only below 11735-25 S/L 11755 and T/p 11690/655/630/11590/sustain below down rally OR buy only abv 11950 S/L 11925 and T/p 11985-12000/12050 (any time close above 11950/12680/12950/ 13550/13850 bullish while close below 11590/11275/11125 bearish for medium term)


SILVER

PRICE TURN ALMOST FROM OUR GIVEN SUPPORT=20050 AS DAYS LOW=20070. Continue to view, as long Resistance 20600 down trend likely to continue. for the day sell below 20125 & 20050 S/L 20200 and T/p 20000/ towards 19850/sustain below 19800 seen down rally sharp OR sell ard 20530-540 S/L 20550 and T/p 20450-375, only sustain abv 20600 trigger buy call again (any time close below 19200-18900 bearish rally while close above 20600/21900/22850/25000/26100/ 27250/28000 bullish for medium term)


CRUDE

Trading Range seen between 4950 & 5300, either side Break-Out will give sharp rally. for the day sell below 4990 & more below 4950 S/L 5010 and T/p 4910-15/4875 OR sell ard 5205-10 S/L 5215 and T/p 5180-150/upto 5120 (now crude need to close above 5290/5475/ 5710/6375 for bullish rally while close below 4950/4865/4760 bearish for medium term)

COPPER

PRICE TURN EXACT FROM OUR GIVEN RESISTANCE=338 AS DAYS HIGH=338. Continue to view as long Resistance of 338 & 340.5, down trend continue. book profit on sell below 335.5, fresh sell below 329 & more below 328 S/L 330.5 and T/p 325-323 atleast OR sell ard 336.2-336.5 S/L 337 and T/p 335-333 (upside strong rally only on close above 340.5/351/ 360.5/ 371/387.5/398 while close below 328/ 312/302/289/265/251.5/235 bearish for medium term)

MCXARUN
9994500540

long view calls

NYMEX CRUDE OIL
LIKELY TO TEST $ 126 UPTO 128 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE $ 122, WHILE CLOSE BELOW $ 112-111.5 TEST $ 106-5 TOWARDS $ 102 IN COMING DAYS(OCT)


ZINC
LIKELY TO TEST 83.75/85.5 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 81.75, WHILE CLOSE BELOW 77.5 TEST 75.75/73.5, ONLY ABOVE 86 BULLISH RALLY (SEP)


NICKEL
LIKELY TO TEST 965-70/TOWARDS 980 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 945, WHILE CLOSE BELOW 875 TEST 950-935 IN COMING DAYS (SEP)


ALUMINUM
LIKELY TO TEST 126/129 UPTO 132 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 124, WHILE CLOSE BELOW 117 TEST 114-13, BELOW DOWN RALLY (SEP)


LEAD
LIKELY TO TEST 77 UPTO 75 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 81, WHILE ONLY CLOSE ABOVE 99-100 SEEN BULLISH RALLY SHARP (SEP)


NAT GAS
LIKELY TO TEST 420/440 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 407, WHILE CLOSE BELOW 340 TEST 320 TOWARDS 305 (SEP)


MCXARUN
9994500540

tecnical charts

click and view large for our tecnical trading tips







MCXARUN
9994500540

safe trade calls

GOLD

Continue to view as long Resistance 11875/11950, down trend continue. for the day sell below 11715 S/L 11735 and T/p 11690/655/630/11590/sustain below down rally OR buy only abv 11875 S/L 11850 and T/p 11910-940/towards 11980 (any time close above 11950/ 12680/12950/13550/13850 bullish while close below 11275/11125 bearish for medium term)


SILVER

As long Resistance 20600 down trend likely to continue. for the day sell below 20200 S/L 20275 and T/p 20125-20050/ towards 19950 OR buy only abv 20600 S/L 20530 and T/p 20700-800/21000, sustain below 19800 seen down rally sharp (any time close below 19200-18900 bearish rally while close above 20600/21900/22850/25000/26100/ 27250/28000 bullish for medium term)


CRUDE


Crude oil inventory schedule to release today at 8.05 PM. Continue to view as long Resistance of 5210/5290, down trend likely to continue. for the day sell below 5040 S/L 5060 and T/p 5000/4955-60/sustain below seen down rally OR sell ard 5240-45 S/L 5250 and T/p 5215/5170, only sustain abv 5250 & 5290 trigger buy call now (now crude need to close above 5290/5475/5710/ 6375 for bullish rally while close below 4865/4760 bearish for medium term)


COPPER


Continue to view as long Resistance of 339 & 340.5, down trend continue. book profit on sell below 335.5, fresh sell below 328 S/L 329.5 and T/p 326-25/ 323 OR sell ard 338.2-338.5 S/L 339 and T/p 339.5/334 (upside strong rally only on close above 340.5/351/ 360.5/ 371/387.5/398 while close below 312/ 302/289/265/251.5/235 bearish for medium term)


MCXARUN
9994500540

GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS

One should enjoy the consolidation days in metals and energies. Consolidation days with very low volatility have become scarce these days. Its also suggests the command the UK has over all foreign exchange markets and commodity markets. Once again the US dollar and crude oil prices will be the key to all commodities. Base metals should remain firm/rise as Chinese demand picks up. Markets will be looking forward to the FOMC minutes for direction today.

Pit trading is closed in US on Monday (1st September) due to Labor Day. Volumes will fall as the week progresses. There will be position squaring and rebuilding ahead of the holiday. Traders will also be taking positions for the US non farm payrolls on 5th September. All these will only increase the volatility for the weeks ahead.

Zinc, lead and Nickel can rise on month end short covering. China will open slowly its factories which were closed due to Olympics which will result in greater demand for these metals and firm prices. Technically also these metals are in medium term oversold zone. Physical demand of gold and silver will remain firm and premiums will also remain high.

LME COPPER (3 MONTHS)

Copper has to break the $7800-$8000 zone for $8450. Sellers will emerge this week only if copper falls below $7625.

MCXARUN
9994500540

safe trade calls

GOLD

Continue to view as long Resistance 11875/11950, down trend continue. for the day sell only below 11625-595 S/L 11655 and T/p 11560-525/11460/sustain below towards 11300 in coming days OR sell ard 11860-65 S/L 11870 and T/p 11820 upto 11770 only sustain abv 11875 & 11950 trigger buy call now (any time close above 11950/12680/12950/ 13550/13850 bullish while close below 11275/11125 bearish for medium term)


SILVER

book profit on sell ard 20330-340, fresh sell only below 20050 S/L 20125 and T/p 19975-900/19800/below down rally OR sell ard 20560-70 S/L 20600 and T/p 20475-20350, only sustain abv 20600 trigger buy call now (any time close below 19200-18900 bearish rally while close above 20600/21900/22850/25000/ 26100/27250/28000 bullish for medium term)


CRUDE


PRICE TURN ALMOST FROM OUR GIVEN LEVELS Continue to view as long Resistance of 5210/5290, down trend likely to continue. for the day sell only below 4975 & 4960 S/L 5000 and T/p 4920-4905/4865-70/sustain below down rally sharp OR sell ard 5140-45 S/L 5150 and T/p 5115-5100 (now crude need to close above 5290/5475/5710/ 6375 for bullish rally while close below 4865/4760 bearish for medium term)


COPPER


As long Resistance of 338.5 & 340.5, down trend continue. for the day sell below 335.5 S/L 336.75 and T/p 333.75-333/331/329.5/sustain below down rally OR buy only abv 340.5 S/L 339.25 and T/p 342-344/upto 346.5 (upside strong rally only on close above 340.5/351/ 360.5/371/387.5/398 while close below 312/302/289/265/251.5/235 bearish for medium term)


MCXARUN
9994500540

safe trade calls

GOLD

Continue to view as long Resistance 11875/11950, down trend continue. for the day sell below 11610-595 S/L 11640 and T/p 11560-525/11460/sustain below towards 11300 in coming days OR sell ard 11860-65 S/L 11870 and T/p 11820 upto 11770 (any time close above 11950/12680/12950/13550/13850 bullish while close below 11275/11125 bearish for medium term)


SILVER

we book profit on sell below 20075, for the day sell below 19800 S/L 19910 and T/p 19700/600/490/sustain below towards 19200 in coming days OR sell ard 20330-40 S/L 20360 and T/p 20230-170/20100, only abv 20600 trigger buy call now (any time close below 19200-18900 bearish rally while close above 20600/21900/22850/25000/26100/ 27250/28000 bullish for medium term)

CRUDE

As long Resistance of 5210/5290, down trend likely to continue. book profit on sell below 5225, fresh sell below 4950 S/L 4980 and T/p 4920-4905/4865-70/ sustain below down rally OR sell ard 5090-95 S/L 5100 and T/p 5065-45 (now crude need to close above 5290/5475/ 5710/6375 for bullish rally while close below 4865/4760 bearish for medium term)

COPPER

LME Closed today for Market Holiday As long Resistance of 337 & 340.5, down trend continue. for the day sell below 329.5-329 S/L 331 and T/p 327.5/ 325/323/sustain below towards 317 in coming days OR sell ard 336.2-336.5 S/L 337 and T/p 334.5/332.5(upside strong rally only on close above 340.5/ 351/360.5/371/387.5/398 while close below 312/302/289/265/251.5/235 bearish for medium term)

MCXARUN
9994500540

imp charts

click the pics for large view







MCXARUN
9994500540

GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS

Once again it’s the US dollar story for all metals and energies. The difference this time around is that the rise is followed by huge demand in all metals. In my view if the rise in commodities is backed by increase in physical demand then higher prices are sustainable. With every rise the premium on gold and silver bars will fall in Asia.

Yesterday one of my clients went long in comex gold december future at $923 only to exit at $928 making a profit of $5. After booking the profit he immediately went short in gold at $928 only to book a loss at $931. This is one of the dumbest ways of trading. It is these kinds of traders who incur losses and curse the commodity exchanges for their trading losses. The best way to trade is to take a break between two trades, if the first trade is a profitable one. Commodity futures are one of the investing ways where profits and losses can be unlimited. Reduce of greed is the key. For the day traders then should have a target profit in mind. If the target profit is reached one should close their trading screens. If they do not close their trading screens then chances of profit getting reduced or profits converted in losses are higher as risk appetite also increases.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL (1ST CONTRACT)

Crude oil targets $135.80 and $145.60 in the short term as long as $109.80 holds.

MCXARUN
9994500540

GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS

Greater physical demand in all metals is preventing them from a fall. The US dollar pace of gains has also reduced. This is also further supporting metal prices from a fall. Base metals are getting buoyed on expectations that Chinese demand will increase once the Olympics are over. Base metals manufacturers trying to reduce production so that prices do not fall in the third quarter, when demand picks up due to festivals in different parts of the globe.

CENTRAL BANK GOLD SALES AGREEMNENT

Sales of gold by signatories of the Central Bank Gold Agreement could be the lowest since the pact was signed in 1999, according to the World Gold Council. Around 319 tonnes of gold has been sold so far by the European central banks that signed the agreement, out of a quota of 500 tonnes allowed in each year.

The Swiss Central Bank is the biggest single gold seller this year to date, having disposed of 113.1 tonnes of the precious metal. According to the figures provided by the WGC, the 15 signatories to the accord disposed of 497.2 tonnes of the 500-tonnes allowance during 2004-05,395.8 tonnes the following year and 475.8 tonnes in 2006-07.

Central banks portray a long term picture of things to come, they are not motivated by profit. If central banks are reluctant to sell gold then retail investors should diversify and invest in gold.

LEAD

The world lead market was in a 41,000 metric ton surplus from January to June due largely to strong mine output in Bolivia, the International Lead and Zinc Study Group said. Global refined lead production of 4.273 million tons outstripped consumption of 4.232 million tons. The surplus is larger than the 8,000 tons during the same period the year before, ILZSG data showed. Chinese net exports of refined lead metal totaled 24,000 tons over the first six months of 2008, compared with 141,000 tons for the same period 2007. Mine output also increased, up 10.3% in the first half 2008 compared with the same period in the year before. This was mainly due to higher output in Bolivia, where the San Cristobal mine opened in September last year, and a further sharp increase in Chinese production, ILZSG said.

A 5.4% rise in global refined lead metal output was principally a consequence of increased production in Canada, China, India, Kazakhstan, the Russian Federation, the U.K. and the U.S., ILZSG said.

An increase in world lead demand of 4.6% was driven primarily by further growth in China. Usage in the U.S. increased by 5.9%, but it fell 3.7% in Europe.

Production for June totaled 770,800 tons, up from May's 731,900 tons. Consumption also rose on the month, to 764,200 tons from 713,400 tons in May.

Impact on Lead prices: Fundamentally lead is bullish but LME (3 months) needs to break $2173 to be in bullish zone.

ZINC

The world zinc market was in a 53,000 metric ton surplus in the first half of 2008, the World Bureau of Metal Statistics said. The surplus was slightly higher than the one recorded in the January to May period of this year.

Mine production was 5.77 million tons, or 9.3% higher than the January to June 2007 total. Refined production rose by 147,000 tons to 5.771 million tons with Asian countries, in particular China, contributing an additional 184,000 tons to the world output. The 27-member European Union production fell by 4% and North American Free Trade Association output was slightly lower, WBMS said.

World demand was 116,000 tons higher than in 2007 with the most significant increase recorded in China. Chinese demand was 1.946 million tons which is 34% of the global total, WBMS said. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes.

Reported stocks rose by 62,200 tons with almost all of the increase recorded at London Metal Exchange warehouses, WBMS said. LME stocks represented 28% of the global total.

In June, slab zinc production was 1.0216 million tons and consumption was 1.0260 million tons.

Impact on Zinc prices: As long as LME Zinc (3 months) holds $1550 downside will be limited. However as long as zinc does not break $2022 upside will be limited in the short term


MCXARUN
9994500540

safe trade calls

GOLD

PRICE TURN EXACT FROM OUR GIVEN RESISTANCE=11750 AS DAYS HIGH=11744. Now good Resistance seen at 11750 & 11950 from where again correction expected. book profit on buy abv 11550, fresh buy only abv 11750 S/L 11720 and T/p 11800-810 upto 11900 OR sell below 11625 S/L 11655 and T/p 11585-530 upto 11450 where support seen again (any time close above 11750-11950/12680/12950/ 13550/13850 bullish while close below 11125 bearish for medium term)


SILVER


we book profit on buy abv 20000. continue to view as long Resistance of 20500 & 21725, down rally likely to continue. for the day buy only abv 20350 S/L 20300 and T/p 20425-500/ only sustain abv 20500 more upside expected OR sell below 20050 S/L 20140 and T/p 19975-900 upto 19775(any time close below 18900 bearish rally while close above 21900/22850/ 25000/26100/27250/28000 bullish for medium term)


CRUDE

Crude oil inventory schedule to release today PRICE TURN EXACT FROM OUR LEVEL ON BOTH SIDE. book profit on buy abv 5035, buy only abv 5120 S/L 5100 and T/p 5150/5210 OR sell below 4900 S/L 4925 and T/p 4865-45/20/ 4780-60/close below 4760 test 4630-50 atleast in coming days (now crude need to close above 5130/5475/ 5710/6375 for bullish rally while close below 4865/4760 bearish for medium term)

COPPER

for the day sell ard 332.2-332.5 S/L 333 and T/p 330.5/328.5 towards 323 in coming days OR sell below 328.5 S/L 330 and T/p 326/323-22 where support seen for today (upside strong rally only on close above 336.5/351/360.5/371/ 387.5/398 while close below 312/302/ 289/265/251.5/235 bearish for medium term)


MCXARUN
9994500540

GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS

Gold rose as the dollar dropped on speculation a slumping U.S. economy will prevent the Federal Reserve from raising borrowing costs. Silver and other base metals followed gold. Once again the US dollar is the key to every thing. Historically the bear phase in August in gold and silver is always a buying opportunity while a bear phase in October implies a sustained one. This is August and one should use the sharp fall to invest.

Base metals, traders are taking positions on expectations that Chinese demand will re start after the Olympics are over and a weaker US dollar. Some of the base metals producers have started reducing production as prices have fallen to the top end of production cost. This has been done in order to prevent prices from further sell off.

At the moment, the rise in gold and silver is just a technical rise which if it continues can restart the short term bull phase in gold and silver. Long term bullishness in gold and silver remains intact. US weekly crude oil inventory will be the key. Gold rose as the dollar dropped on speculation a slumping U.S. economy will prevent the Federal Reserve from raising borrowing costs. Silver was little changed.

INTRA DAY TRADING STRATEGY.

· We will prefer to buy comex gold december around $810 and or over $832.

· Silver (comex September), will prefer to buy around $1306 and $1268 or over $1380.

· Copper (comex September) as long as $319 holds downside will be limited.

· Crude oil has to break $119.10-$122.40 zone for $125 and $128.

· COMEX GOLD DECEMBER

Resistance $810 now becomes the support while $845-$850 is the key resistance zone. Intra day gold has to fall below $810 for $800 and $788.

COMEX SILVER SEPTEMBER

A break of $1380 will result in $1510 and $1560. Key intra day support is at $1260.

COMEX COPPER SEPTEMBER

Copper has managed to hold $319 and will try to break $354 today.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL (1ST CONTRACT)

Crude oil has to break 117, else will trade in wider $109-$117 range.

MCXARUN
9994500540

nymex crude intraday

Oil prices continued its weakness yesterday as Tropical Storm Fay headed toward Florida's west coast and was expected to miss key operations in the Gulf of Mexico oil. But on last Friday oil fell below $112 a barrel as OPEC trimmed its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2008 for a fifth month and said production was more than adequate, paving the way for a build in inventories. Growing concerns about demand in industrial nations and the stronger dollar is also adversely affected the oil movements. Oil touched the fifteen week low of $111.70 in the last week.

Crude has fallen sharply since reaching an all-time high of $147.27 a barrel on July 11 as growing global economic problems and high fuel prices have cut demand in top consumer the United States as well as Europe. The President of OPEC Chakib Khelil called oil prices abnormal and said they could pull back to $80 a barrel over the long term if the dollar were to continue to recover and global political worries eased is also adversely affected the oil movements .

According to the International Energy Agency, the Output by the producer group rose 145,000 barrels per day in July to 32.8 million barrel per day(bpd) . And also predicted oil demand would rise by 1.0 million barrels per day this year, 30,000 bpd less than the previous forecast.

At the same time in last week, According to the report from EIA, gasoline stocks fell 6.4 million barrels, more than a forecast decline of 2.1 million barrels and U.S. crude inventories fell by 400,000 barrels last week, double the forecast decline. Distillate stocks unexpectedly fell by 1.7 million barrels.

Light, sweet crude oil for September delivery in the New York Mercantile Exchange traded in the range $115.35 - $112, before settling at $113.14 a barrel.

Oil price had touched an all-time high of $147.27 a barrel on 11th July but has corrected from there in the succeeding weeks.

Crude Oil (DWTI Aug.)

Crude oil price remain weak below $117.50 a barrel .But expecting a recovery above $117.50 , if sustain above that levels ,can expect more uptrend .Next levels are $120.40,$123.50 and $129. Supports are $112.50, $110.00, $105.00, and $ 99.30.

DWTI (Aug) traded in the range $115.20 - $112.10 and closed at $112.89.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)

DGCX Crude (Aug) - Bullish above $113.65; bearish below $113.00

MCXARUN
9994500540

comex gold outlook

Gold price recovered yesterday amid weak dollar and short covering from the recent lower levels. Gold price touched a nine months low of $773.90 on last Friday and settled at $ 785.5 due to the strong dollar and fall in crude price. Dollar continued its recovery against the major currencies and recorded a six months high against the Euro on Friday.
At the same time report from World Gold Council, Global demand for gold dropped 19 percent year-on-year to 735.6 tonnes in the second quarter of 2008 as sharply higher prices and increased volatility weakened jewelry buying.

In US, Initial jobless claims for the week ending 9 August decreased by 10k to 450k, well above market expectations for a decrease to 435k vs. the revised 460k in the prior week. The 4-week average is reported at 440.5k (the highest since April 20 2002 week at 445,500) vs. the revised 421.0k (prev. 419.5k). Continuing claims for week ending 2 Aug surged higher to 3.417mn vs. the 3.303mn in previous week (prev. 3.311mn), the highest since Nov. 8 2003 week.

According to the Federal Reserve, industrial production was up 0.2% in July, better than expected, after a 0 .4% gain in June.

According to the report from EIA, gasoline stocks fell 6.4 million barrels, more than a forecast decline of 2.1 million barrels and U.S. crude inventories fell by 400,000 barrels last week, double the forecast decline. Distillate stocks unexpectedly fell by 1.7 million barrels.

At the same time, at the beginning of the month Federal Reserve held U.S. interest rates steady at 2 percent, expressing concerns about both economic growth and inflation and indicating it is in no rush to push borrowing costs higher.

International spot gold traded in the range $803.65- $789.25 a Troy Ounce and last quoted at $798.35($785.5).

Weekly Outlook (DG. OCT.)

Gold price remain weak below $816.80. But expecting some recovery from lower levels .Resistances are $791, $802, $816.80 and $829.60. Supports are $779, $772, $764, $753 and 743

Last day DGCX Gold Oct traded in the range $806– $792and closed at $802.80

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)

GOLD (Oct) - Bullish above $ 803.60; bearish below $ 798.40


MCXARUN
9994500540

imp charts & outlook

click the pics to see large vie

safe trade calls

GOLD

continue to view, as long Resistance of 11550 & 11750, down rally likely to continue. for the day sell below 11325 & 11300 S/L 11350 and T/p 11240-250/ 11190-125/close below 11125 test 10950 atleast in coming days OR buy only abv 11550 S/L 11520 and T/p 11610/11670 (any time close above 11750-11950/12680/12950/13550/ 13850 bullish while close below 11125 bearish for medium term)


SILVER

continue to view as long Resistance of 20500 & 21725, down rally likely to continue. for the day sell only below 11500-475 S/L 11575 and T/p 11400/ 300/200/125/towards 18900 OR buy only abv 20000 S/L 19910 and T/p 20100/200 towards 20400. anytime close below 18900 test 18450-500 atleast in coming days (any time close below 18900 bearish rally while close above 21900/22850/25000/26100/27250/ 28000 bullish for medium term)


CRUDE

PRICE TURN EXACT FROM OUR LEVEL ON BOTH SIDE. for the day sell only below 4865 S/L 4890 and T/p 4845/ 20/4780-60/close below 4760 test 4630-50 atleast in coming days OR buy only abv 5035 S/L 5010 and T/p 5070/5120 (now crude need to close above 5130/ 5475/5710/6375 for bullish rally while close below 4760 bearish for medium term)


COPPER

continue to view, as long Resistance of 325.5, down rally likely to continue. for the day sell below 315 S/L 316.5 and T/p 313.9/312/sustain below towards 308-305 OR sell ard 324.5-325 S/L 325.5 and T/p 323/ 320.75/318.75 (upside strong rally only on close above 325.5/336.5/351/360..5/371/387.5/398 while close below 302/289/265/251.5/ 235 bearish for medium term)

MCXARUN
9994500540

safe trade calls

GOLD

WE ADVISE NOT TO CARRY HUGE POSITION TODAY AS THERE IS HOLIDAY FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY TOMORROW for the day sell ard 11788 -90 S/L 11800 and T/p 11760-720 upto 11675 OR sell only below 11400 S/L 11430 and T/p 11330-275/11210-175/ close below 11175 test 10950-11000 atleast in coming days, only sustain above 11950 trigger buy again (any time close above 11950/12680/12950/13550/ 13850 bullish while close below 11175 bearish for medium term)

SILVER

for the day sell below 21250 S/L 21350 and T/p 21150-100/21000/20900 OR sell ard 21870-80 S/L 21900 and T/p 21800-725/650 upto 21500, only sustain above 21900 trigger buy call now (any time close below 20250/19150-19000 bearish rally while close above 21900/22850/ 25000/26100/27250/28000 bullish for medium term)

CRUDE

book profit on buy abv 4930, fresh buy only abv 5070 S/L 5045 and T/p 5095-5130/sustain abv towards 52005260 in coming days OR sell below 4900 S/L 4915 and T/p 4875-40/4800/down rally (now crude need to close above 5130/ 5450/5680/6040/6360 for bullish rally while close below 4745/4670/4385 bearish for medium term)

COPPER

for the day sell below 309.5 S/L 311.1 and T/p 308-306.5/305 OR buy only abv 321 S/L 319.5 and T/p 323/324.5/ towards 330 in coming days (upside strong rally only on close above 324.5/ 336.5/351/360.5/371/387.5/398 while close below 302/289/265/251.5/235 bearish for medium term)


MCXARUN
9994500540

GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS

ARE HEDGE FUNDS MOVING AWAY FROM COMMODITIES

There was some news that “Hedge funds are exiting commodities following their recognition that the US Fed intends to fight inflation with rate hikes and that regulators intend to fight "speculative abuses" in various markets with limits.” I do not believe it. This is just some churning of short term portfolio away from commodities before the US presidential elections and nothing else. We all know that commodities price rise or fall have a lagging effect. The positive effects of the current fall in commodity prices will be reflected in October which is just before the US presidential elections. I believe that hedge funds have political patronage. If central banks and commodity exchange officials were to act they could have reacted much earlier as they advanced information of the things to come. Once we know who is the next US president commodities will re start the next phase of the bull run and possibly new highs will be created.

Monetary heads of all the countries will try their best to break the commodity bull run and they have been successful in the short term. In the long term it’s the supply side pressures which the central banks cannot control and hence they will be helpless in controlling prices from falling. All the central banks can do is to reduce the pace of rise of commodities but they cannot alter the rise.

35 YEAR HISTORICAL CHARTS PORTRAY THAT GOLD SHOULD RISE 15% FROM AUGUST LOWS AND IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF.

GOLD DEMAND

If the rise in any commodity gets supported by an equal rise in physical demand then the rise will be sustained but the pace of rise will be slow. This is happening in gold and silver. Physical prices of gold and silver bars are at a premium in India. Banks have run out of gold stocks. Wholesalers are fixing their today for delivery on Monday or Tuesday. Gold and silver wholesalers as well as jewelry manufactures have increased their inventory levels and are buying as much as they can as they prepare for the Indian festivals for the next three months. Physical demand for gold and silver will continue to rise. Demand for gold in India will fall below $790 only to reappear around $760.



NYMEX CRUDE OIL (1ST CONTRACT)

In the short term as long as crude oil holds $109 downside will be limited and crude will try for $122.20+. Crude oil has to fall below $109 for another round of selling to $98.40.


MCXARUN
9994500540

safe trade calls

GOLD

THIS WAS OUR WORDS "sustain below 11775 towards 11700-630/ below sharp rally" ACHIEVED SEE DAYS LOW=11305 book profit on sell below 12000/11800, for the day sell below 11300 & more below 11275 S/L 11320 and T/p 11220/towards 11125... sustain close below 11275 & 11200 seen towards 11000 in coming days OR sell ard 11615-20 S/L 11630 and T/p 11550-500 (any time close above 11950/12680/12950/13550/13850 bullish while close below 11275-200 bearish for medium term)


SILVER

THIS WAS OUR WORDS YESTERDAY "sustain below 21400 towards 20950/ sharp down rally" ACHIEVED AS DAYS LOW=20714 book profit on sell below 23075/22700/21575, for the day sell below 20700 S/L 20800 and T/p 20600/500/400/Max towards 20100 in coming days OR sell ard 21160-70 S/L 21200 and T/p 20975-900/upto 20775 (any time close below 20700/19150-19000 bearish rally while close above 22850/25000/ 26100/27250/28000 bullish for medium term)


CRUDE

PRICE TURN EXACT FROM OUR GIVEN LEVEL ON BOTH SIDES book profit on sell below 4825, for the day sell below 4740 S/L 4765 and T/p 4725-4670/upto 4615 OR sell ard 4915-20 S/L 4925 and T/p 4870-4840 (now crude need to close above 5130/5450/5680/ 6040/6360 for bullish rally while close below 4745/ 4670/4385 bearish for medium term)


COPPER

book profit on sell below 334/322/317.5/ 307.75, for the day sell below 305.5 S/L 306.75 and T/p 304/302.5/300/298 OR sell ard 312.2-312.5 S/L 313 and T/p 310-308 (upside strong rally only on close above 324.5/336.5/351/360.5/ 371/387.5/398 while close below 305.5/ 302.5/289/265/251.5/235 bearish for medium term)


MCXARUN
9994500540

long view

SPOT GOLD INTERNATIONAL
LIKELY TO TEST $ 800/ $ 770-60 TOWARDS $740 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW $ 817... ONLY CLOSE ABOVE $ 935/976 & $ 988 BULLISH RALLY AGAIN


NICKEL
LIKELY TO TEST 710-700 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 735, ONLY CLOSE ABOVE 806/825 SOME UPSIDE AGAIN(AUG)


MCXARUN
9994500540

GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS

All I can say is that US dollar gains are pain for precious metals and energies. Highly oversold conditions exist in gold, silver and crude oil. Growth rates in other countries are now slowing down. This is the lagging effect of higher energy prices and a US slowdown. The focus of these central banks has switched from managing inflation to growth and some of them may cut interest rates this year. This has resulted in growth differentials between US and other nations getting narrowed and gains in the US dollar.

IS THE SUPER CYCLE IN COMMODITIES OVER

My answer is “No”. Commodities have more to go and the current fall in commodity prices is a part and parcel of a long term bull run. Long term bull runs are accompanied by sharp slides as well. Fundamentals for commodities have not changed. Global population continues to rise with the passing of each day. There are more mouths to feed every second. Urbanisation is getting faster which means forest cover being reduced to accommodate agriculture. This further accentuates global warming and crop failures. Add to this the increase in acreage under bio fuels. This cycle will continue unless global population stabilizes or reduces.

Do not expect global growth over five percent endlessly. Coordinated central bank effort to ensure higher growth rates and their protection policy of supporting failed/busted banks/financial institutions cannot last long. Now every major banks/financial institution knows that if they get busted their central bank is there to protect them. Once the central bank protection policy fails another super cycle in commodities will start which will end only with proctecionism.

A long run bull run does not mean over twenty percent gains in less than six months as we have seen in the first half of 2008. It’s all about the pace of rise for any instrument. If the pace of rise is very high then the pace of fall will be double. Further if any commodity gains backed without any rise in physical demand then the crash will be imminent sooner than later. This is what has happened with crude oil and other commodities.

Before I end, commodities does not mean just precious metals or energies. Commodities include precious metals, base metals, energies and soft commodities. If China starts to slowdown then base metals (including steel) will be the first to get ripped apart and producers will be forced to reduce production. Soft commodities long term story is here. But for the rest namely precious metals, base metals and energies with the long term bull run there will be phases of short term bear runs as well.

WHAT NEXT

In the short term commodities will remain under pressure as long the US dollar continues to gain. But after a certain period there will be a delinking between commodities and the US dollar. The next bull run in commodities will be accompanied by increase in physical prices (instead of just future prices) and the pace of rise will be slow and sustained. Unless gold falls below $680 and silver below $9.50 and crude oil below $80 the long term bull run will be intact.


MCXARUN
9994500540

safe trade calls

GOLD

THIS WAS OUR WORDS "sustain below 11970 towards 11900/11840" ACHIEVED AS DAYS LOW=11773 book profit on sell below 12000, for the day sell below 11800 S/L 11825 and T/p 11775-70/sustain below towards 11700-11630 in coming days OR sell ard 12085-95 S/L 12100 and T/p 12040/ 11985 (any time close above 12680/ 12950/13550/13850 bullish while close below 11770/11275 bearish for medium term)


SILVER

book profit on sell below 23075/22700, for the day sell only below 21575 S/L 21675 and T/p 21500/21400/sustain below towards 20950 in coming days OR sell ard 22070-80 S/L 22100 and T/p 21930-875/775/upto 21675 (any time close below 21575/20925/19150-19000 bearish rally while close above 25000/ 26100/27250/28000 bullish for medium term)


CRUDE

PRICE TURN EXACT FROM OUR GIVEN RESISTANCE=5080 AS DAYS HIGH=5068 for the day sell only below 4825 S/L 4850 and T/p 4800/upto 4725-4670 where good support seen now OR sell ard 4958-60 S/L 4970 and T/p 4940-20 upto 4895 (now crude need to close above 5130/5450/5680/6040/6360 for bullish rally while close below 4825/ 4670/4385 bearish for medium term)


COPPER

book profit on sell below 334/322/317.5, for the day sell only below 307.75 S/L 309.25 and T/p 305/towards 302.5/upto 300 OR sell ard 316.2-316.5 S/L 317 and T/p 315/313.5 (upside strong rally only on close above 324.5/336.5/351/ 360.5/371/387.5/398 while close below 308/302.5/289/265/251.5/235 bearish for medium term)


MCXARUN
9994500540

safe trade calls

GOLD

for the day sell only below 12000 S/L 12030 and T/p 11970/sustain below 11970 towards 11900/11840 OR sell ard 12240-45 S/L 12250 and T/p 12215 upto 12160 (any time close above 12680/ 12950/13550/ 13850 bullish while close below 11970/11275 bearish for medium term)

SILVER

THIS WAS OUR WORDS YESTERDAY "sustain below 22970 towards 22700" ACHIEVED EXACT AS DAYS LOW WAS 22700. book profit on sell below 23075, for the day sell only below 22700 S/L 22780 and T/p 22625/22525 upto 22400 OR sell ard 23290-300 S/L 23325 and T/p 23200-23100 (any time close below 22700/21825 bearish rally while close above 25000/26100/27250/28000 bullish for medium term)


CRUDE

for the day sell below 4960 S/L 4985 and T/p 4920-25/sustain close below towards 4850-4750 in coming days OR buy abv 5130 S/L 5110 and T/p 5165/ 200/upto 5240 (now crude need to close above 5450/5680/6040/6360 for bullish rally while close below 4925 bearish for medium term)

COPPER

book profit on sell below 334/322, for the day sell only below 317.5 S/L 319 and T/p 315/towards 312 OR buy abv 324.5 S/L 323 and T/p 325.5/327.5 Max upto 332 where good resistance seen again (upside strong rally only on close above 336.5/351/360.5/371/387.5/398 while close below 317.5/311 bearish for medium term)


MCXARUN
9994500540

GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS

The inverse correlation between the US dollar and precious metals was at full force yesterday and may continue today also. The market has shifted its focus to growth differentials from interest rate differentials, which is the prime reason for the US dollar’s gain. Precious metals will remain under pressure as long the US dollar gains. Physical gold demand will fall below $845 whereas investment demand for gold will rise below $845. Over the past two years there has been an inverse correlation between physical demand and investment demand in gold. Gold’s rise will be sustainable only when the rise in price is accompanied by a rise in physical demand and investment demand, else the fear of a big fall also increases.

Among the base metals lead looks positive. Nickel, Zinc and Copper are reaching oversold levels and a technical recovery can happen anytime soon. Fundamentally these metals are bearish. Steel prices have fallen nearly ten percent over the past few weeks. We expect steel to pare all its losses after the Olympics.

COPPER -- SEPTEMBER FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $354.0

Failure of copper to break $354 next week will result in a fall to $332 and $319

MCXARUN
9994500540

zinc intraday

Zinc yesterday we have seen that market has moved 0.33%. Market has opened at 74.7 & made a low of 74.1 versus the day high of 75.6. The total volume for the day was at 9975 lots and the open interest was at 11018.Now support for the zinc is seen at 74.3 and below could see a test of 73.45. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 75.8, a move above could see prices testing 76.45.

Trading Idea

TRADING RANGE IS 73.00-80.00.
SELL ZINC @ 76-77 SL 77.80 TGT 75.20-74.30-72.60.MCX
SELLING PRESSURE STILL MOUNTING IN THE AREA OF 75-76 TARGETING 72-71 LEVEL

MCXARUN
9994500540

nickel intraday

Yesterday the LME nickel stock was -24 against the previous of 222 Nickel has touched a low of Rs 736.6 a kg after opening at Rs .748, and last traded at Rs 753.6.For today market is looking for the support at 739.40, a break below could see a test of 725.30 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 764.80, a move above could see prices testing 776.10.

Trading Ideas

TRADING RANGE IS 725.00-776.00.
HOLD / SELL NICKEL AUG @ 760-765 SL 776 TGT 756-752-745-738-720. MCX
OVERLL NICKLE IS WEAK AND BERISH AND WE LOOK SUPPORT AT 700-680 LEVEL.


MCXARUN
9994500540

copper intraday

Copper futures opened flat with a downside bias on Wednesday, pressurized by rising inventories and a soft demand outlook. Yesterday the LME copper was 1575mt against the previous of 2250mt. Copper has touched a low of Rs 318 a kg after opening at Rs 320.2, and last traded at Rs318.85.For today market is looking for the support at 316.50, a break below could see a test of 314.10 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 322.70, a move above could see prices testing 326.60.

Trading Ideas

TRADING RANGE IS 314.00-326.00
SELL COPPER @ 324-325 SL 328.20 TGT 322.50-319.60-317.40. MCX
A JUMP CAN BE SEEN TODAY AFTER YESTERDAY FALL IS GOOD TO SELL


MCXARUN
9994500540

crude intraday

Crude oil futures traded near $119 a barrel in New York after falling yesterday as U.S. supplies unexpectedly gained amid slowing demand, and the dollar climbed, reducing the appeal of commodities as an inflation hedge. Now support for the crude is seen at 4920 and below could see a test of 4845. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 5075, a move above could see prices testing 5155.

Trading Ideas

TRADING RANGE IS 4845-5155.
CRUDE BELOW 120$ BERISH TILL 116.70-112.40$.
CRUDE INVENTORY EXP: 0.1M VS -0.1M
SELL CRUDE ON JUMP @ 5120-5150 SL 5198 TGT 5062-5022-4980-4930-4860. MCX
SELL CRUDE BELOW 4960 SL 4990 TGT 4911-4848-4800-4760. MCX

MCXARUN
9994500540

silver intraday

Silver has paused its big down move yesterday. We remain near the recent low of 16.50. There is very little to suggest that this move is over, so the risk remains for a drop to 16.01, the May low. Silver's 200 day moving average at 16.85, then channel resistance at 17.38 should contain topside. The gold/silver ratio remains near its 200 day moving average of 53.08. Now support for the silver is seen at 23041 and below could see a test of 22860. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 23472, a move above could see prices testing 23722.

Trading Ideas:

TRADING RANGE IS 22860-23722.
SILVER IS BELOW 16.56$ CAN FIND THE SUPPORT TILL 16.22-15.96$
SELL SILVER @ 23800-900 SL 24056 TGT 23635-23522-23380-23120.MCX
BELOW 23000 IS BERISH AS 3TIMES PREVIOUSLY MKT HAD JUMP FROM THIS LEVEL.

MCXARUN
9994500540

mcx gold intraday

Gold is showing a fairly flat day at 877 after trying to bounce to the 200 day moving average at 888. The unit remains in a well defined bearish channel with the top coming in at 902. Risk remains for a drop to the June low of 858, followed by a massive 846 pivot. Now support for the gold MCX is seen at 12029 and below could see a test of 11943. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 12219, a move above could see prices testing 12327.

Trading Ideas:

TRADING RANGE IS 11943-12327.
BUY GOLD @ 12150-165 SL 12090 TGT 12200-235-270-310. MCX(YESTERDAYS BTST)
SELL GOLD @ 12320-350 SL 12390 TGT 12270-12215-12160-12080. MCX
A BREAK OF 12100 IS BEROSH TILL 12000-11860. MCX
CRUDE IS STILL BELOW 120$ CREATING PRESSURE ON BULLION


MCXARUN
9994500540

safe trade calls

GOLD

THIS WAS OUR WORDS YESTERDAY "price test 12200 upto 12130" ACHIEVED EXACTLY AS DAYS LOW=12125 book profit on sell below 12460/12390, for the day sell below 12075 S/L 12100 and T/p 12040-10/ 11970/sustain below seen new down rally OR sell ard 12388-395 S/L 12400 and T/p 12340-300 (any time close above 12680/12950/13550/13850 bullish while close below 12125/11970/11275 bearish for medium term)


SILVER

book profit on sell below 23800, for the day sell below 23225 S/L 23300 and T/p 23150/23050/22970/sustain below seen new down rally OR sell ard 23850-875 S/L 23900 and T/p 23790-700 (any time close below 23075-22970/21825 bearish rally while close above 25000/26100/ 27250/28000 bullish for medium term)


CRUDE

EIA Crude oil inventory schedule to release today PRICE TURN EXACT FROM OUR GIVEN SUPPORT=5000 AS DAYS LOW=5005 book profit on sell below 5240, for the day sell below 5090 S/L 5115 and T/p 5060-5000/ sustain close below 5060 invite for 4750 -4650 in coming days OR sell ard 5250-55 S/L 5260 and T/p 5200-5170 (now crude need to close above 5450/5680/ 6040/6360 for bullish rally while close below 5000 bearish for medium term)


COPPER


THIS WAS OUR WORDS LAST "close below test 320 atleast/305 in coming days" 1st TARGET ACHIEVED AS LOW=317.6 book profit on sell below 334/322, for the day sell below 317.5 S/L 319 and T/p 315/towards 312 OR sell ard 326.5-327 S/L 327.5 and T/p 324.5-323 (upside strong rally only on close above 351/360.5/371/387.5/398 while close below 311 bearish for medium term)


MCXARUN
9994500540

long view calls

SPOT GOLD INTERNATIONAL
LIKELY TO TEST $ 885/877 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW $ 893 AND CLOSE BELOW $ 873/$ 856 & $ 845 TEST $ 830 - 815 UPTO $ 790... ONLY CLOSE ABOVE $ 935/976 & $ 988 BULLISH RALLY AGAIN


SPOT SILVER INTERNATIONAL
LIKELY TO TEST $ 16.45/16.25 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW $ 16.80 AND CLOSE BELOW $ 16.20 & 15.95 TEST $ 15.50 - 15.25 ATLEAST UPTO $ 14.80... ONLY CLOSE ABOVE $ 17.95 / 18.70 & 19.5 BULLISH RALLY AGAIN


MCXARUN
9994500540

crude intraday

Crude oil fell for a third day in New York, trading near $118 a barrel as demand may be further eroded by economic slowdowns in the U.S., Europe and China. Now support for the crude is seen at 5001 and below could see a test of 4944. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 5118, a move above could see prices testing 5178.

Trading Ideas

TRADING RANGE IS 4944-5178.
CRUDE BELOW 120$ BEARISH TILL 116.70-112.40$.
CRUDE INVENTORY EXP: 0.1M VS -0.1M
SELL CRUDE ON JUMP @ 5120-5150 SL 5198 TGT 5062-5022-4980-4930-4860. MCX
SELL CRUDE BELOW 4960 SL 4990 TGT 4911-4848-4800-4760. MCX

MCXARUN
9994500540

zinc intraday

Zinc yesterday we have seen that market has moved -1.51%. Market has opened at 75.75 & made a low of 74.25 versus the day high of 76.45. The total volume for the day was at 11842 lots and the open interest was at 10808.Now support for the zinc is seen at 73.95 and below could see a test of 73. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 76.15, a move above could see prices testing 77.4.

Trading Idea

TRADING RANGE IS 73.00-81.00.
SELL ZINC @ 76-77 SL 77.80 TGT 75.20-74.30-72.60.MCX
SELLING PRESSURE STILL MOUNTING IN THE AREA OF 75-76 TARGETING 72-71 LEVEL

MCXARUN
9994500540

nickel intraday

Nickel declined to a two-year low of $17,450 a metric ton and zinc to $1,730 a ton, the weakest since December 2005, as data showed inventories jumped as demand from industry slows. Yesterday the LME nickel stock was 222 against the previous of 264 Nickel has touched a low of Rs 742.6 a kg after opening at Rs .773.1, and last traded at Rs 746.9.For today market is looking for the support at 734.30, a break below could see a test of 721.70 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 767.70, a move above could see prices testing 788.50.

Trading Ideas

TRADING RANGE IS 720-780.
HOLD / SELL NICKEL AUG @ 760-765 SL 776 TGT 756-752-745-738-720. MCX
OVERLL NICKLE IS WEAK AND BERISH AND WE LOOK SUPPORT AT 700-680 LEVEL.


MCXARUN
9994500540

copper intraday

Yesterday the LME copper was 2550mt against the previous of 1550mt. Copper has touched a low of Rs 317.55 a kg after opening at Rs 322.55, and last traded at Rs320.05.For today market is looking for the support at 317.20, a break below could see a test of 314.40 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 323.20, a move above could see prices testing 326.30.

Trading Ideas

TRADING RANGE IS 314.40-326.30.
SELL COPPER @ 324-325 SL 328.20 TGT 322.50-319.60-317.40. MCX
A JUMP CAN BE SEEN TODAY AFTER YESTERDAY FALL IS GOOD TO SELL


MCXARUN
9994500540

silver intraday

Silver has finally taken out 16.85, the 200 day moving average. The unit extended toward 16.56, opening up a visit to April’s low of 16.01. Bearish price action for silver has it underperforming gold again. The gold silver ratio has moved back to 53.00. Precious metals risk deeper liquidation now that longer term moving averages have been broken. Now support for the silver is seen at 23171 and below could see a test of 22950. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 23757, a move above could see prices testing 24122.

Trading Ideas:

TRADING RANGE IS 22950-24122.
SILVER IS BELOW 16.56$ CAN FIND THE SUPPORT TILL 16.22-15.96$
SELL SILVER @ 23800-900 SL 24056 TGT 23635-23522-23380-23120.MCX
BELOW 23000 IS BEARISH AS 3 TIMES PREVIOUSLY MKT HAD JUMP FROM THIS LEVEL

MCXARUN
9994500540

mcx gold intraday

Gold tumbled down through the 200 day moving average yesterday at 888. The move extended to just shy of our June reactionary low near 875. The technical picture remains negative while gold holds below the down channel top at 908. Downside support is positioned at 857.50. Now support for the gold MCX is seen at 12066 and below could see a test of 11968. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 12320, a move above could see prices testing 12476.

Trading Ideas:

TRADING RANGE IS 11968-12476.
BUY GOLD @ 12150-165 SL 12090 TGT 12200-235-270-310. MCYESTERDAYS BTST)
SELL GOLD @ 12320-350 SL 12390 TGT 12270-12215-12160-12080. MCX
A BREAK OF 12100 IS BEARISH TILL 12000-11860. MCX
CRUDE IS STILL BELOW 120$ CREATING PRESSURE ON BULLION


MCXARUN
9994500540

nymex crude outlook

Oil prices fell yesterday and traded near to three month low and closed at $119.17 a barrel with oil operations in the Gulf of Mexico starting to return to normal as Tropical Storm Edouard moved inland after striking the Texas coast. Sign of increased OPEC output and the threat to demand from economic slowdown also affected the crude movement.

Light, sweet crude oil for September delivery in the New York Mercantile Exchange traded in the range $121.23 - $118, before settling at $118.58 a barrel.

In market influencing news, the President of OPEC Chakib Khelil called oil prices abnormal and said they could pull back to $80 a barrel over the long term if the dollar were to continue to recover and global political worries eased.

The President of Iran Mahmoud Ahmadinejad reportedly said that Iran has more than 5,000 active centrifuges for enriching uranium, keeping the focus on geopolitical concerns.


Oil price had retreated from record high levels in the previous two weeks, weighed down by concerns that slowing economic growth might dampen oil demand. Easing of storm threat also added to the pressure. Tropical Storm Dolly did not have a major impact on oil and natural gas operations in the Gulf of Mexico. Early this month, OPEC had downwardly revised the world oil-demand growth for 2008 and 2009.

OPEC in its latest monthly report had lowered its forecast for world oil-demand growth for 2008 to 1.03 million barrels a day, which represents a decline of 70,000 barrels from its previous estimate. Global oil demand this year is expected to average 86.81 million barrels a day.

Oil price had touched an all-time high of $147.27 a barrel on 11th July but has corrected from there in the succeeding weeks.

The Group of Eight leaders from Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia and the United States had warned that soaring oil and food prices pose a serious challenge to stable worldwide economic growth. They also called for diversifying sources of energy and further efforts to improve energy efficiency.

NYMEX Crude Oil September

Continuation of weakness expected below $119.80. Supports are $116.00, $110.00, $105.00. Otherwise expecting recovery; resistances $126.40, $132.00, $139.00.

DWTI (Aug) traded in the range $121.13 - $118.15 and closed at $119.17.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)

DGCX Crude (Aug) - Bullish above $119.40; bearish below $118.9

MCXARUN
9994500540

comex gold outlook

Gold ended lower yesterday as the fall in crude oil price and broad recovery in dollar. Crude futures ended lower on Tuesday, with oil operations in the Gulf of Mexico starting to return to normal as Tropical Storm Edouard moved inland after striking the Texas coast. Sign of increased OPEC output and the threat to demand from economic slowdown also affected the crude movement.

On Tuesday The Federal Reserve held U.S. interest rates steady at 2 percent, expressing concerns about both economic growth and inflation and indicating it is in no rush to push borrowing costs higher.

From Friday onwards gold has been under pressure as dollar strengthened on the back of better-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls data and manufacturing data.

According to the data, U.S. employers eliminated 51,000 non-farm jobs in July against market expectations for a payrolls decline of 75,000. But U.S. unemployment rate changed to 5.7 percent from 5.5 percent, its highest level in four years.

International spot gold traded in the range $894.9- $872.8 a Troy Ounce and last quoted at $873.25 ($893.65).

But data’s from different sectors are giving a mixed trend in the US economy

Standard & Poor's Case-Shiller home price index revealed that home prices in 20 major US cities have fallen a record 15.8% in the past year, and fell 1% in May compared with April.

Meanwhile, the US Senate cleared a bill designed to prop up the struggling US housing market and rescue the struggling giant mortgage-buyers Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The bill includes billions of dollars in loan guarantees, a tax break for first-time homebuyers and many other provisions.

The Federal Reserve's Beige Book report of economic conditions last week showed price pressures were intensifying even as growth slowed over the past month.

Weekly Outlook (Spot Gold)

Expecting weakness below $899.30, Otherwise expecting recovery. Supports are $ 893, $884, $873.Resistances $911, $920.60, $936.60

Last day DGCX Gold Oct traded in the range $896.7– $878.1 and closed at $878.5

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)

GOLD (Oct) - Bullish above $ 885.5; bearish below $ 885

MCXARUN
9994500540

crude intraday

Crude oil fell to a three-month low as Tropical Storm Edouard will avoid most offshore production facilities in the U.S. Gulf Coast as it approaches Texas. Now support for the crude is seen at 5027 and below could see a test of 4929. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 5292, a move above could see prices testing 5459.

Trading Ideas

TRADING RANGE IS 4929-5459.
CRUDE BELOW 120$ BEARISH TILL 116.70-112.40$.
SELL CRUDE @ 5250-280 SL 5320 TGT 5225-5200-5175-5120-5060. MCX
A BREAK AND RETAIN BELOW 5080 CAN BRING TILL 4980-4920 LVL.

MCXARUN
9994500540

nickel intraday

Yesterday the LME nickel stock was 264 against the previous of -84 Nickel has touched a low of Rs 772 a kg after opening at Rs .799, and last traded at Rs 776.2.For today market is looking for the support at 765.8, a break below could see a test of 755.4 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 792.8, a move above could see prices testing 809.4.

Trading Ideas

TRADING RANGE IS 755.00-809.00.
HOLD / SELL NICKEL AUG @ 790-795 SL 802 TGT 784-780-776-770-760. MCX
OVERALL NICKEL IS WEAK AND BEARISH AND WE LOOK SUPPORT AT 700-680 LEVEL

MCXARUN
9994500540

copper intraday

Copper futures in Shanghai plunged to the lowest in more than six months as global stockpiles rose to a five-month high, raising speculation demand may be slowing. Yesterday the LME copper was 1550mt against the previous of 2250mt. Copper has touched a low of Rs 322.2 a kg after opening at Rs 336, and last traded at Rs322.65.For today market is looking for the support at 317.8, a break below could see a test of 312.95 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 331.9, a move above could see prices testing 341.15.

Trading Ideas

TRADING RANGE IS 313.00-340.00.
SELL COPPER @ 328-329 SL 331.20 TGT 325.60-323.70-321.40-318. MCX
A JUMP CAN BE SEEN TODAY AFTER YESTERDAY FALL
BUY COPPER @ 319-320 SL 317.80 TGT 322.50-324.20-326.80. MCX

MCXARUN
9994500540

mcx silver intraday

Silver opened at 1736/1740 and moved within a range during the early part of the session, climbing to a high of 1744/1748. This level was not sustained as base metals and oil both fell, dragging silver lower and triggering stops which pushed the metal to a low of 1687/1691. Silver quickly recovered from the lows as dealers bought, finally closing at 1713/1717. Now support for the silver is seen at 23649 and below could see a test of 23318. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 24472, a move above could see prices testing 24964.

Trading Ideas:

TRADING RANGE IS 23318-24964.
SILVER IS BELOW 17$ CAN FIND THE SUPPORT TILL 16.56$
WAIT FOR FRESH ENTRY AS BELOW 24000 MARK MARKET IS LOOKING WEAK AND BEARISH TILL 23360. MCX

mcx gold intraday

Gold opened at 901.25/902.25 in New York and climbed on the back of weaker equity markets, reaching a high of 909.50/910.50. Oil later tumbled on news that Tropical Storm Edouard would not cause disruption to oil production in the Gulf of Mexico, and gold followed, slipping to a low of 894.50/895.50. The metal ticked higher from the lows on good bids closing at 899.25/900.25. Now support for the gold MCX is seen at 12318 and below could see a test of 12217. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 12600, a move above could see prices testing 12781.

Trading Ideas:

TRADING RANGE IS 12217-12781.
SELL GOLD @ 12550-580 SL 12622 TGT 12520-480-435-380. MCX
IMP WILL BE 888$.
RISKY TRADER CAN BUY GOLD @ 12300-330 SL 12270 TGT 12365-12390-12460. MCX
IMPORTANT IS 888$ A BOUNCE TILL 898-905$ CAN BE SEEN BELOW 888$ TARGET CAN BE 862$

MCXARUN
9994500540

safe trade calls

GOLD

for the day buy only abv 12700 S/L 12675 and T/p 12735-770/12825/ towards 12950 OR sell below 12460 S/L 12490 and T/p 12425-400/close below 12400 test 12200 atleast/upto 12130 (any time close above 12950/13550/ 13850 bullish while close below 12400-250/11970/11275 bearish for medium term)

SILVER

for the day buy only abv 24775 S/L 24700 and T/p 24850/25000/close abv 25000 test 25350-400 atleast in coming days OR sell below 24275 S/L 24350 and T/p 24200-100/24000 (any time close below 23670/23075/21825 bearish rally while close above 25000/26100/ 27250/28000 bullish for medium term)


CRUDE

PRICE TURN EXACT FROM OUR GIVEN RESISTANCE=5450 AS DAYS HIGH=5450 for the day buy only abv 5450 S/L 5425 and T/p 5525/towards 12625 in coming days OR sell only below 5240 S/L 5265 and T/p 5215/ 5175/towards 5100/close below 5100 test 4925 atleast in coming days (now crude need to close above 5450/5680/ 6040/6360 for bullish rally while close below 5100-5060 bearish for medium term)


COPPER


for the day sell below 334 S/L 335.5 and T/p 332-330.5/close below test 320 atleast/305 in coming days OR sell ard 343-343.5 S/L 344 and T/p 341-339/337 (upside strong rally only on close above 351/360.5/371/387.5/398 while close below 330.5/326/311 bearish for medium term)


MCXARUN
9994500540

long view calls

COPPER
LIKELY TO TEST 322-320/312 UPTO 305 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 330.5, ONLY CLOSE ABOVE 351/361 UPTREND AGAIN(AUG)


ZINC
LIKELY TO TEST 74 UPTO 71 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 77.5, ONLY CLOSE ABOVE 85 SOME UPTREND AGAIN(AUG)


NICKEL
LIKELY TO TEST 750-60 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 780, ONLY CLOSE ABOVE 825 SOME UPSIDE AGAIN(AUG)


LEAD
LIKELY TO TEST 104-5 UPTO 108 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 99-100, WHILE CLOSE BELOW 82.4 TEST 76-74 ATLEAST IN COMING DAYS(AUG)

MCXARUN
9994500540

nickel intraday

Friday the LME nickel stock was -84 against the previous of -96 Nickel has touched a low of Rs 786.4 a kg after opening at Rs .786.4, and last traded at Rs 794.7.For today market is looking for the support at 780.5, a break below could see a test of 771.7 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 800.9, a move above could see prices testing 812.5.

Trading Ideas

TRADING RANGE IS 770.00-815.00.
SELL NICKEL AUG @ 808-810 SL 813.60 TGT 802-796-792-786-782-776. MCX
MARKET IS TRADING IN THE RANGE 760-820.


MCXARUN
9994500540

copper intraday

Friday the LME copper was 2250mt against the previous of 4450mt. Copper has touched a low of Rs 334.9 a kg after opening at Rs 335.15, and last traded at Rs335.1.For today market is looking for the support at 329.8, a break below could see a test of 324.5 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 342.1, a move above could see prices testing 349.1.

Trading Ideas

TRADING RANGE IS 324.00-349.00.
SELL COPPER @ 341-342 SL 344.20 TGT 340-338.60-336.80. MCX
BUY COPPER @ 334-335 SL 332.80 TGT 336.70-338.20-339.50. MCX
IMP RANGE IS 332-342 LEVEL


MCXARUN
9994500540

crude intraday

Crude oil rose for a second day as a storm threatened U.S. output in the Gulf of Mexico, and Israeli and U.S. officials sought additional sanctions against Iran. Now support for the crude is seen at 5164 and below could see a test of 5039. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 5432, a move above could see prices testing 5575.

Trading Ideas

TRADING RANGE IS 5039-5575.
BUY CRUDE ABV 5314 SL 5296 TGT 5326-5348-5360. MCX
SELL CRUDE @ 5390-5400 SL 5426 TGT 5356-5320-5286. MCX
THE RANGE IS 121-128$ SO LOOK FOR THE RANGE AND TRADE

MCXARUN
9994500540

mcx silver intraday

Silver is actually showing a minor up week, following an aggressive two week down move that brought the unit from 19.47 to 16.84. The overall technical picture remains bearish, with the sell level now seen at 18.00. A break of the 200 day ma will lead to initial support at 16.00, from the April low, followed by 15.20, the January reactionary low. Now support for the silver is seen at 24158 and below could see a test of 23837. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 24753, a move above could see prices testing 25027.

Trading Ideas:

TRADING RANGE IS 23837-25027.
BUY SILVER ABV 24510 SL 24450 TGT 24570-24610-24650. MCX
SELL ONLY BELOW 24250 SL 24320 TGT 24180-24150-24080. MCX


MCXARUN
9994500540

mcx gold intraday

Gold is registering its third down week in a row, off of a high of 988. This is the first time we have seen three consecutive down weeks since May 2007. One has to look all the way back to March/April 2006 to see five consecutive weekly down candles. This moving average appears pivotal, with a break leading to 874 and possibly 858, the June low. Only a move back above 935 will neutralize the overall bearish picture. Now support for the gold MCX is seen at 12483 and below could see a test of 12366. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 12704, a move above could see prices testing 12808.

Trading Ideas:

TRADING RANGE IS 12366-12808.
BUY GOLD OCT ABV 12630 SL 12600 TGT 12672-12690-12726. MCX
IMPORTANT RANGE IS 903-920$

MCXARUN
9994500540

nymex crude outlook

Oil recovered from $122 level and closed at $125.30 a barrel on Friday as traders reacted to concerns about Iran and its nuclear dispute with the West. Continuing supply threat from Nigeria also affected the oil prices.

At the same time Gasoline futures also edged up on Friday as due to the scheduled autumn maintenance.

Light, sweet crude oil for September delivery in the New York Mercantile Exchange traded in the range $128.60 - $122.10, before settling at $125.30 a barrel.

In market influencing news, the President of OPEC Chakib Khelil called oil prices abnormal and said they could pull back to $80 a barrel over the long term if the dollar were to continue to recover and global political worries eased.

The President of Iran Mahmoud Ahmadinejad reportedly said that Iran has more than 5,000 active centrifuges for enriching uranium, keeping the focus on geopolitical concerns.


Oil price had retreated from record high levels in the previous two weeks, weighed down by concerns that slowing economic growth might dampen oil demand. Easing of storm threat also added to the pressure. Tropical Storm Dolly did not have a major impact on oil and natural gas operations in the Gulf of Mexico. Early this month, OPEC had downwardly revised the world oil-demand growth for 2008 and 2009.

OPEC in its latest monthly report had lowered its forecast for world oil-demand growth for 2008 to 1.03 million barrels a day, which represents a decline of 70,000 barrels from its previous estimate. Global oil demand this year is expected to average 86.81 million barrels a day.

Oil price had touched an all-time high of $147.27 a barrel on 11th July but has corrected from there in the succeeding weeks.

The Group of Eight leaders from Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia and the United States had warned that soaring oil and food prices pose a serious challenge to stable worldwide economic growth. They also called for diversifying sources of energy and further efforts to improve energy efficiency.

NYMEX Crude Oil September

Continuation of weakness expected below $119.80. Supports are $116.00, $110.00, $105.00. Otherwise expecting recovery; resistances $126.40, $132.00, $139.00.

DWTI (Aug) traded in the range $128.56 - $122.16 and closed at $125.10 .

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)

DGCX Crude (Aug) - Bullish above $125.50; bearish below $124.90


MCXARUN
9994500540

comex gold outlook

Gold ended lower on Friday as the dollar strengthened on the back of better-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls data and manufacturing data.

According to the data, U.S. employers eliminated 51,000 non-farm jobs in July against market expectations for a payrolls decline of 75,000. But U.S. unemployment rate changed to 5.7 percent from 5.5 percent, its highest level in four years.

The unexpected recent data’s influenced the investors and provided some scope for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by year-end or early 2009.

But on Thursday gold rose to $925 level and settled at $912.85 as dollar dropped after weaker-than-expected U.S. job data and below-forecast economic growth in the second quarter.

International spot gold traded in the range $916.9 - $901.80 a Troy Ounce and last quoted at $909.55 ($912.85).

But data’s from different sectors are giving a mixed trend in the US economy

Standard & Poor's Case-Shiller home price index revealed that home prices in 20 major US cities have fallen a record 15.8% in the past year, and fell 1% in May compared with April.

Federal Reserve Board Governor Frederic Mishkin had said Monday that recent adverse shocks to the economy - including the financial market turmoil and the sharp increase in the price of oil - may affect the economy for longer than the next three years.

Meanwhile, the US Senate cleared a bill designed to prop up the struggling US housing market and rescue the struggling giant mortgage-buyers Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac on Saturday. The bill includes billions of dollars in loan guarantees, a tax break for first-time homebuyers and many other provisions.

The Federal Reserve's Beige Book report of economic conditions last week showed price pressures were intensifying even as growth slowed over the past month.

Weekly Outlook (Spot Gold)

Expecting weakness below $899.30, Otherwise expecting recovery. Supports are $ 893, $884, $873.Resistances $911, $920.60, $936.60

Last day DGCX Gold Oct traded in the range $921 – $906 and closed at $914.20

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)

GOLD (Oct) - Bullish above $ 916.50; bearish below $ 911.3


MCXARUN
9994500540

GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS

It’s a central bank week. We have the Federal reserve meeting, the European central bank, and the bank of England. I do not expect any surprises from them except soothing comments to stabilize the financial markets. The crude oil-US dollar and precious metals relationship will continue this week too. Crude oil rose as a storm Edouard threatened U.S. output in the Gulf of Mexico and Israel and U.S. officials sought extra sanctions against Iran. Crude oil will command a hurricane premium for the whole of August and early September. (Although the hurricane season lasts until November). Crude oil will fall as and when storm risk fades.

Iran didn't respond by an August 2 deadline to an offer from the U.S., Russia, China, France, the U.K. and Germany of economic and diplomatic incentives in exchange for the suspension of its uranium-enrichment program. Iranian risk will continue right throughout the year until there is an armed attack on Iranian soil. The US may not attack Iran and instead may support Israel to attack Iran. This way it will avoid internal resentment on war.

It will be a technical trade this week. Economic numbers may not have impact on commodity price movement. Base metals, one should look for a bottom and invest in October or December futures. Nickel and Zinc should form a bottom soon. The Olympics is beginning this week and trading volumes will not be affected during the events.

SILVER -- SEPTEMBER FUTURE

Failure of silver to break $1830 and $1930 in August will result in a fall to $1626 and $1554.


MCXARUN
9994500540

zinc intraday

Zinc futures in Shanghai fell the most in two weeks after China, the world's largest producer and consumer of the metal, removed export rebates from today. Zinc yesterday we have seen that market has moved 1.36%. Market has opened at 81 & made a low of 80.7 versus the day high of 84.9. The total volume for the day was at 15564 lots and the open interest was at 7233.Now support for the zinc is seen at 80 and below could see a test of 78.25. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 84.2, a move above could see prices testing 86.65.

Trading Idea

TRADING RANGE IS 78.00-85.00.
BUY ZINC AUG @ 79-79.50 SL 78.40 TGT 80.50-81.20-81.90-82.80. MCX
OVERALL MARKET IS SIDEWAY AND RANGE BOUND

MCXARUN
9994500540

nickel intraday

Yesterday the LME nickel stock was -96 against the previous of 498 Nickel has touched a low of Rs 790 a kg after opening at Rs .804.9, and last traded at Rs 796.7.For today market is looking for the support at 785.70, a break below could see a test of 774.70 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 811.90, a move above could see prices testing 827.10.

Trading Ideas

TRADING RANGE IS 770-825.
SELL NICKEL AUG @ 805-808 SL 810.80 TGT 796-792-786-782-776. MCX
SELLING IS BEST ON ANY RISE OVER AND TARGET IS 680-700 IN AUG

MCXARUN
9994500540

copper intraday

Yesterday the LME copper was 4450mt against the previous of 1225mt. Copper has touched a low of Rs 341.7 a kg after opening at Rs 342.5, and last traded at Rs343.55.For today market is looking for the support at 341.2, a break below could see a test of 338.85 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 346.4, a move above could see prices testing 349.25.

Trading Ideas

TRADING RANGE IS 338-350.
SELL COPPER BELOW 340 SL 342.60 TGT 337.60-336.80-334.50. MCX
OR CAN SELL ON RISE TILL 344-345 LEVEL ALSO OVERALL BELOW 347 LOOK WEAK ONLY
IMP RANGE IS 332-342 LEVEL

MCXARUN
9994500540

mcx crude intraday

Crude oil fell for a second day, extending the biggest monthly decline since 2004, on concern global consumption is falling amid slowing economic growth. Now support for the crude is seen at 5205 and below could see a test of 5133. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 5396, a move above could see prices testing 5515.

Trading Ideas

TRADING RANGE IS 5133-5515.
SELL CRUDE @ 5370-5400 SL 5426 TGT 5356-5320-5286. MCX
THE RANGE IS 121-128$ SO LOOK FOR THE RANGE AND TRADE

MCXARUN
9994500540

mcx silver intraday

Silver opened at 1742/1746 in New York. After a slight drop to the low of 1739/1743, prices soared on the weak GDP data. The metal reached a high of 1790/1794 where it traded for a while before slipping over the next few hours. Silver eventually found support around 1771/1775 where it traded sideways before finally closing at that level. Now support for the silver is seen at 24370 and below could see a test of 24019. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 25028, a move above could see prices testing 25335.

Trading Ideas:

TRADING RANGE IS 24019-25330.
SELL SILVER BELOW 24680 SL 24720 TGT 24620-24580-24548. MCX
BUY SILVER @ 24200-280 SL 24080 TGT 24340-24400-24522-24670. MCX
SILVER BELOW 24000 IS BEARISH TILL 24680 LEVEL

MCXARUN
9994500540

mcx gold intraday

Gold staged a 30 dollar bounce off of yesterday’s lows to 925 earlier in the session, but drifted back to 914 in the afternoon. Despite the bounce, the overall price action is bearish while we remain below 935. Downside support is seen at 888 - the 200 day moving average and 76.4% retrenchment. Now support for the gold MCX is seen at 12484 and below could see a test of 12350. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 12738, a move above could see prices testing 12858.

Trading Ideas:

TRADING RANGE IS 12350-12858.
SELL GOLD OCT @ 12700-720 SL 12748 TGT 12670-635-611-570. MCX
BUY GOLD OCT @ 12540-560 SL 12515 TGT 12590-12615-12680. MCX
GOLD BELOW 904$ LOOKS WEAK AND BEARISH RANGE IS 900-918$

MCXARUN
9994500540

safe trade calls

GOLD

our S/L just click, but if hold book profit on sell ard 12710, for the day sell below 12470 S/L 12500 and T/p 12430-12390/ 12330/12275/close below 12280 test 12000 atleast in coming days OR sell ard 12835-40 S/L 12850 and T/p 12800-760/upto 12725, only sustain abv 12850 trigger buy call again (any time close above 12850/13465/13775 bullish while close below 12275-150/11920/11775/ 11375/11200 bearish for medium term)

SILVER

PRICE TURN EXACT FROM OUR GIVEN RESISTANCE=25000 AS YESTERDAYS HIGH=24985. book profit on buy abv 24750-775, for the day buy only abv 25000 S/L 24900 and T/p 25100-125/upto 25300 OR sell below 24300 S/L 24400 and T/p 24160-175/ 24000 (any time close below 23670/ 23075/21825 bearish rally while close above 25000/26100/27250/28000 bullish for medium term)


CRUDE

PRICE TURN EXACT FROM OUR GIVEN RESISTANCE=5440 AS YESTERDAYS HIGH=5442 for the day sell below 5230 S/L 5260 and T/p 5200-5170/towards 5100/close below 5100 test 4950 atleast in coming days OR sell ard 5390-95 S/L 5400 and T/p 5355-5325 (now crude need to close above 5450/5680/6040/6360 for bullish rally while close below 5100-5060 bearish for medium term)


COPPER


book profit on buy abv 342/344, for the day buy only abv 347 S/L 345.5 and T/p 349-51/353/towards 358 OR buy ard 336.4-336.8 S/L 336 and T/p 339-342 (upside strong rally only on close above 351/360.5/371/387.5/398 while close below 331.5-330.5/326/311 bearish for medium term)


MCXARUN
9994500540