Major Economic Data:
- The U.S. Commerce Department said that personal incomes were up .5% in February, better than expected. Consumer spending was up .1%, as expected.
Major Headline:
- Copper fell, erasing early gains, as concern that a slowing global economy may reduce demand for commodities sent futures indexes tumbling.
- Meanwhile, the dollar strengthened against the euro, making oil and other commodities less appealing as a hedge against inflation. A stronger dollar also makes oil more expensive to overseas investors.
- Prices are being hit by worries about the economic outlook and the impact of a U.S. recession. Also recent data on China has been poor.
- Stockpiles monitored by the London Metal Exchange fell 5.4 percent in the past week, to 115,225 metric tons, the lowest level since Aug. 14. Stockpiles in Shanghai warehouses also fell by 12,217 tons to 55,607 tons this week, the first drop since the end of the Lunar New Year holiday on Feb. 12.
- Standard Chartered cut its copper price forecast for this year to an average of $7,046 a metric ton, from $7,068 earlier, according to the report. It also slashed its first-quarter forecast to $7,685 a ton, from $7,770.
MCX Copper April
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations - MCX Copper April: Buy at 333 Target 342 and 346 Stop loss 327.8
MCX Zinc April
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative. are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations -MCX Zinc April: Buy at 93.00 Target 95.50 and 97.40 Stop loss at 91.80
MCX Nickel April
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations: MCX Nickel April: Buy at 1215 Target 1245 and 1285 Stop loss at 1190
MCX Lead April
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations: MCX Lead April : Buy at 114 Target 116 and 118.20 Stop loss at 112.95
MCXARUN
9994500540
Monday, March 31, 2008
bullion intraday
Major Headline:
- Gold fell in New York after crude oil and other commodities declined, reducing the appeal of the precious metal as a hedge against inflation. Silver also fell.
- Meanwhile, the dollar strengthened against the euro, making oil and other commodities less appealing as a hedge against inflation. A stronger dollar also makes oil more expensive to overseas investors.
- Reports from the Commerce Department showed U.S. consumer spending rose at the slowest pace in more than a year last month. Consumer prices excluding energy and food costs, preferred as a gauge of inflation by Federal Reserve policy makers, increased at a 2 percent annual rate, at the low end of the Fed's forecast of 2 percent to 2.2 percent for this year.
- Price decline is an opportunity for investors seeking a hedge against inflation and a falling dollar, analysts said. Gold gained 14 percent this year before today.
US Economy:
- The U.S. Commerce Department said that personal incomes were up .5% in February, better than expected. Consumer spending was up .1%, as expected.
- The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index fell from 70.8 to 69.5 in March, weaker than expected. The December eurodollars were up .03 at 97.765.
- In an ongoing effort to help banks stay liquid, the Federal Reserve said that it will offer $50 billion on April 7th and April 21st.
Currency Update:
- The U.K.'s Office for National Statistics said that real GDP was up .6% in the fourth quarter of 2007 and up 2.8% from a year ago, a little less than expected. The June pound is steady to lower.
- The unemployment rate in Japan increased from 3.8% to 3.9% in February. Japan's Statistics Bureau said that consumer prices were down .2% in February, but up 1.0% from a year ago
MCX Gold Apr (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations - MCX Gold April: Buy at 11980 Target 12060 and 12140 Stop loss 11915
MCX Silver May (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations -MCX Silver May: Buy at 22900 Target 23180 and 23460 stop loss 22760
MCXARUN
9994500540
- Gold fell in New York after crude oil and other commodities declined, reducing the appeal of the precious metal as a hedge against inflation. Silver also fell.
- Meanwhile, the dollar strengthened against the euro, making oil and other commodities less appealing as a hedge against inflation. A stronger dollar also makes oil more expensive to overseas investors.
- Reports from the Commerce Department showed U.S. consumer spending rose at the slowest pace in more than a year last month. Consumer prices excluding energy and food costs, preferred as a gauge of inflation by Federal Reserve policy makers, increased at a 2 percent annual rate, at the low end of the Fed's forecast of 2 percent to 2.2 percent for this year.
- Price decline is an opportunity for investors seeking a hedge against inflation and a falling dollar, analysts said. Gold gained 14 percent this year before today.
US Economy:
- The U.S. Commerce Department said that personal incomes were up .5% in February, better than expected. Consumer spending was up .1%, as expected.
- The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index fell from 70.8 to 69.5 in March, weaker than expected. The December eurodollars were up .03 at 97.765.
- In an ongoing effort to help banks stay liquid, the Federal Reserve said that it will offer $50 billion on April 7th and April 21st.
Currency Update:
- The U.K.'s Office for National Statistics said that real GDP was up .6% in the fourth quarter of 2007 and up 2.8% from a year ago, a little less than expected. The June pound is steady to lower.
- The unemployment rate in Japan increased from 3.8% to 3.9% in February. Japan's Statistics Bureau said that consumer prices were down .2% in February, but up 1.0% from a year ago
MCX Gold Apr (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations - MCX Gold April: Buy at 11980 Target 12060 and 12140 Stop loss 11915
MCX Silver May (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations -MCX Silver May: Buy at 22900 Target 23180 and 23460 stop loss 22760
MCXARUN
9994500540
comex gold intraday
Gold prices fell on Friday, as the Dollar gained strength, extending profit taking in the bullion. A retreat in oil prices also affected the price movement in gold.
International spot gold traded in the range $950.50 - $923.10, and last quoted at $930.00 ($947.40).
As per the US Commerce Department release on Friday, inflation moderated in February, with consumer prices rising just 0.1% for the month.
Dollar found some support in the report from US Labor Department released on Thursday, which revealed that initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 9,000 to 366,000 in the week ended March 22. However the four-week average of initial claims rose 1,750 to 358,000.
Also continuing claims for benefits fell 5,000, to 2.85 million for the week ended March 15. The four-week average of continuing claims rose 25,250 to 2.82 million.
The US economy grew at 0.6 % annual rate in the fourth quarter according to the Commerce Department estimate made public on Thursday. This was as per expectations and consistent with the two previous estimates, but the slowest pace since 2002.
The Euro had gained early last week, inspired by robust data from the Euro-zone’s two biggest economies.
Germany's Ifo institute reported that business confidence in the Europe's biggest economy rose for a third consecutive month. Also, French business sentiment rose unexpectedly in March, reaching its highest level so far this year, according to national statistics office INSEE.
The US Commerce Department reported on Wednesday that sales of new homes in the US fell to a 13-year low in February, dropping 1.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 590,000.
US consumer confidence index had fallen in March to 64.5 from a revised reading of 76.4 in February, according to a US Conference Board release on Tuesday.
But the report from National Association of Realtors released on Monday had shown that resale of homes rose 2.9% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 5.03 million. The rise was above expectations, and the first in seven months.
Gold had corrected from record high reached on March 17th, along with oil, as the Dollar bounced back moderately from record-low levels versus the Euro after the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points to 2.25 percent.
The latest rate cut has been the sixth since last September, and has made the reduction in the federal funds rate to 300 basis points, to the lowest point since late 2004. But many market participants and analysts had anticipated an even more severe cut by the Fed, a full 100 basis points, amid serious concerns regarding a recession in US economy.
Oil prices eased to close below $105 a barrel, as functioning of Iraq's pipeline system disrupted by a bomb attack a day earlier was reported to be restored.
Crude oil for May delivery in NYMEX settled at $104.95 ($107.26) a barrel, after trading in the range $107.63 - $104.71.
The latest weekly update by US Energy Department’s Energy Information Administration had said US crude stockpiles remained unchanged at 311.8 million barrels in the week ended March 21, while a rise of around 1.5 million barrels had been widely expected.
The economic worries and a nose-diving dollar had propelled spot gold to record an all-time high of $1030.80 a Troy ounce last week.
The Federal Reserve in a an unexpected move had cut its discount rate for direct loans to banks by 0.25 percent point to 3.25 percent, and launched a new discount window facility for primary dealers, in desperate moves to stabilize financial markets.
The emergency moves by Fed boosted speculations regarding the possibilities for more casualties in the widening US financial crisis.
Meanwhile, the US Commerce Department reported that the US trade deficit widened slightly in January, up 0.6% to $58.2 billion.
Medium term outlook (Spot Gold)
Bullish above $916; Resistances are $926, $932, $947, $954, $973, $984, $995, $1002, $1022, $1035, $1052; supports $896, $883. Further up-trend is expected above $954.60.
Last day DGCX Gold June traded in the range $951.70 – $927.70 and closed at $936.70 ($953.50).
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
DGCX GOLD (June) - Bullish above $ 941; bearish below $ 936
MCXARUN
9994500540
International spot gold traded in the range $950.50 - $923.10, and last quoted at $930.00 ($947.40).
As per the US Commerce Department release on Friday, inflation moderated in February, with consumer prices rising just 0.1% for the month.
Dollar found some support in the report from US Labor Department released on Thursday, which revealed that initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 9,000 to 366,000 in the week ended March 22. However the four-week average of initial claims rose 1,750 to 358,000.
Also continuing claims for benefits fell 5,000, to 2.85 million for the week ended March 15. The four-week average of continuing claims rose 25,250 to 2.82 million.
The US economy grew at 0.6 % annual rate in the fourth quarter according to the Commerce Department estimate made public on Thursday. This was as per expectations and consistent with the two previous estimates, but the slowest pace since 2002.
The Euro had gained early last week, inspired by robust data from the Euro-zone’s two biggest economies.
Germany's Ifo institute reported that business confidence in the Europe's biggest economy rose for a third consecutive month. Also, French business sentiment rose unexpectedly in March, reaching its highest level so far this year, according to national statistics office INSEE.
The US Commerce Department reported on Wednesday that sales of new homes in the US fell to a 13-year low in February, dropping 1.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 590,000.
US consumer confidence index had fallen in March to 64.5 from a revised reading of 76.4 in February, according to a US Conference Board release on Tuesday.
But the report from National Association of Realtors released on Monday had shown that resale of homes rose 2.9% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 5.03 million. The rise was above expectations, and the first in seven months.
Gold had corrected from record high reached on March 17th, along with oil, as the Dollar bounced back moderately from record-low levels versus the Euro after the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points to 2.25 percent.
The latest rate cut has been the sixth since last September, and has made the reduction in the federal funds rate to 300 basis points, to the lowest point since late 2004. But many market participants and analysts had anticipated an even more severe cut by the Fed, a full 100 basis points, amid serious concerns regarding a recession in US economy.
Oil prices eased to close below $105 a barrel, as functioning of Iraq's pipeline system disrupted by a bomb attack a day earlier was reported to be restored.
Crude oil for May delivery in NYMEX settled at $104.95 ($107.26) a barrel, after trading in the range $107.63 - $104.71.
The latest weekly update by US Energy Department’s Energy Information Administration had said US crude stockpiles remained unchanged at 311.8 million barrels in the week ended March 21, while a rise of around 1.5 million barrels had been widely expected.
The economic worries and a nose-diving dollar had propelled spot gold to record an all-time high of $1030.80 a Troy ounce last week.
The Federal Reserve in a an unexpected move had cut its discount rate for direct loans to banks by 0.25 percent point to 3.25 percent, and launched a new discount window facility for primary dealers, in desperate moves to stabilize financial markets.
The emergency moves by Fed boosted speculations regarding the possibilities for more casualties in the widening US financial crisis.
Meanwhile, the US Commerce Department reported that the US trade deficit widened slightly in January, up 0.6% to $58.2 billion.
Medium term outlook (Spot Gold)
Bullish above $916; Resistances are $926, $932, $947, $954, $973, $984, $995, $1002, $1022, $1035, $1052; supports $896, $883. Further up-trend is expected above $954.60.
Last day DGCX Gold June traded in the range $951.70 – $927.70 and closed at $936.70 ($953.50).
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
DGCX GOLD (June) - Bullish above $ 941; bearish below $ 936
MCXARUN
9994500540
Friday, March 28, 2008
comex gold intraday
Gold prices drifted lower yesterday, as moderate recovery in the Dollar brought about profit taking following the previous days’ rally. But firm oil prices remained supportive for the yellow metal.
International spot gold traded in the range $954.50 - $939.95, and last quoted at $947.40 ($953.50).
Dollar found some support in the report from US Labor Department released yesterday, which revealed that initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 9,000 to 366,000 in the week ended March 22. However the four-week average of initial claims rose 1,750 to 358,000.
Also continuing claims for benefits fell 5,000, to 2.85 million for the week ended March 15. The four-week average of continuing claims rose 25,250 to 2.82 million.
The US economy grew at 0.6 % annual rate in the fourth quarter according to the Commerce Department estimate made public yesterday. This was as per expectations and consistent with the two previous estimates, but the slowest pace since 2002.
The Euro had gained in the previous day inspired by robust data from the Euro-zone’s two biggest economies.
Germany's Ifo institute reported that business confidence in the Europe's biggest economy rose for a third consecutive month. Also, French business sentiment rose unexpectedly in March, reaching its highest level so far this year, according to national statistics office INSEE.
The US Commerce Department reported on Wednesday that sales of new homes in the US fell to a 13-year low in February, dropping 1.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 590,000.
US consumer confidence index had fallen in March to 64.5 from a revised reading of 76.4 in February, according to a US Conference Board release on Tuesday.
But the report from National Association of Realtors released on Monday had shown that resale of homes rose 2.9% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 5.03 million. The rise was above expectations, and the first in seven months.
Gold had corrected from record high levels reached earlier last week, along with oil, as the Dollar bounced back moderately from record-low levels versus the Euro after the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points to 2.25 percent.
The latest rate cut has been the sixth since last September, and has made the reduction in the federal funds rate to 300 basis points, to the lowest point since late 2004. But many market participants and analysts had anticipated an even more severe cut by the Fed, a full 100 basis points, amid serious concerns regarding a recession in US economy.
Crude oil for May delivery in NYMEX settled at $107.26 ($106.21) a barrel, after trading in the range $105.03 - $108.22.
The latest weekly update by US Energy Department’s Energy Information Administration had said US crude stockpiles remained unchanged at 311.8 million barrels in the week ended March 21, while a rise of around 1.5 million barrels had been widely expected.
The economic worries and a nose-diving dollar had propelled spot gold to record an all-time high of $1030.80 a Troy ounce last week.
The Federal Reserve in a an unexpected move had cut its discount rate for direct loans to banks by 0.25 percent point to 3.25 percent, and launched a new discount window facility for primary dealers, in desperate moves to stabilize financial markets.
The emergency moves by Fed boosted speculations regarding the possibilities for more casualties in the widening US financial crisis.
Meanwhile, the US Commerce Department reported that the US trade deficit widened slightly in January, up 0.6% to $58.2 billion.
Medium term outlook (Spot Gold)
Bullish above $916; Resistances are $926, $932, $947, $954, $973, $984, $995, $1002, $1022, $1035, $1052; supports $896, $883. Further up-trend is expected above $954.60.
Last day DGCX Gold June traded in the range $958.80 – $945.80 and closed at $953.50 ($955.20).
DGCX Gold June
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (June) - Bullish above $ 955; bearish below $ 949
MCXARUN
9994500540
International spot gold traded in the range $954.50 - $939.95, and last quoted at $947.40 ($953.50).
Dollar found some support in the report from US Labor Department released yesterday, which revealed that initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 9,000 to 366,000 in the week ended March 22. However the four-week average of initial claims rose 1,750 to 358,000.
Also continuing claims for benefits fell 5,000, to 2.85 million for the week ended March 15. The four-week average of continuing claims rose 25,250 to 2.82 million.
The US economy grew at 0.6 % annual rate in the fourth quarter according to the Commerce Department estimate made public yesterday. This was as per expectations and consistent with the two previous estimates, but the slowest pace since 2002.
The Euro had gained in the previous day inspired by robust data from the Euro-zone’s two biggest economies.
Germany's Ifo institute reported that business confidence in the Europe's biggest economy rose for a third consecutive month. Also, French business sentiment rose unexpectedly in March, reaching its highest level so far this year, according to national statistics office INSEE.
The US Commerce Department reported on Wednesday that sales of new homes in the US fell to a 13-year low in February, dropping 1.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 590,000.
US consumer confidence index had fallen in March to 64.5 from a revised reading of 76.4 in February, according to a US Conference Board release on Tuesday.
But the report from National Association of Realtors released on Monday had shown that resale of homes rose 2.9% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 5.03 million. The rise was above expectations, and the first in seven months.
Gold had corrected from record high levels reached earlier last week, along with oil, as the Dollar bounced back moderately from record-low levels versus the Euro after the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points to 2.25 percent.
The latest rate cut has been the sixth since last September, and has made the reduction in the federal funds rate to 300 basis points, to the lowest point since late 2004. But many market participants and analysts had anticipated an even more severe cut by the Fed, a full 100 basis points, amid serious concerns regarding a recession in US economy.
Crude oil for May delivery in NYMEX settled at $107.26 ($106.21) a barrel, after trading in the range $105.03 - $108.22.
The latest weekly update by US Energy Department’s Energy Information Administration had said US crude stockpiles remained unchanged at 311.8 million barrels in the week ended March 21, while a rise of around 1.5 million barrels had been widely expected.
The economic worries and a nose-diving dollar had propelled spot gold to record an all-time high of $1030.80 a Troy ounce last week.
The Federal Reserve in a an unexpected move had cut its discount rate for direct loans to banks by 0.25 percent point to 3.25 percent, and launched a new discount window facility for primary dealers, in desperate moves to stabilize financial markets.
The emergency moves by Fed boosted speculations regarding the possibilities for more casualties in the widening US financial crisis.
Meanwhile, the US Commerce Department reported that the US trade deficit widened slightly in January, up 0.6% to $58.2 billion.
Medium term outlook (Spot Gold)
Bullish above $916; Resistances are $926, $932, $947, $954, $973, $984, $995, $1002, $1022, $1035, $1052; supports $896, $883. Further up-trend is expected above $954.60.
Last day DGCX Gold June traded in the range $958.80 – $945.80 and closed at $953.50 ($955.20).
DGCX Gold June
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (June) - Bullish above $ 955; bearish below $ 949
MCXARUN
9994500540
basemetals intraday
Major Economic Data:
§ The U.S. Commerce Department said again that real GDP in the fourth quarter was up an annual rate of .6%, the same as its estimate one month ago. For all of 2007, real GDP was up 2.2%. The December eurodollars are steady.
§ The U.S. Labor Department said that jobless claims were down 9,000 last week to 366,000.
Major Headline:
§ Copper jumped the most in three weeks as inventories slumped to a seven-month low, raising concern that supplies may trail demand this year.
§ Copper production fell 42,000 metric tons short of demand last year, the International Copper Study Group said. The deficit compares with a surplus of 287,000 tons in 2006,
§ UBS boosted its 2008 copper forecast by 17 percent today, citing output constraints. The metal will average $3.50 a pound this year, the Zurich-based investment bank said. That compares with a previous forecast of $3. Before today, copper has averaged $3.5062 this year on the Comex.
§ Copper demand will outpace production by 100,000 metric tons this year, UBS said. Risks to output in Zambia, China and Chile, the world's biggest source of the metal, ``have increased in the past several months,'' Brebner said. In February, snowy weather and power outages disrupted copper production in China. In Chile, contract workers at state- owned Codelco, the world's biggest copper producer, plan to strike, a labor leader said last week, threatening production.
§ Zambia's trade surplus widened to 168 billion kwacha ($45.8 million) in February on increased exports of copper from the southern African country, the Central Statistics Agency said.
§ The surplus rose from a revised 42.1 billion kwacha in January, Modesto Banda, acting director of the agency, said in a statement in the capital, Lusaka, today.
§ Copper accounts for about 70 percent of Zambia's export earnings and production has risen in recent years as the government sold the industry back to investors, after taking it over from Anglo American Plc in the early 1970s.
§ Exports rose 8.3 percent to 1.3 trillion kwacha in February from a month earlier, while imports fell 23 percent to 1.1 trillion kwacha, the statistics office said. Refined copper accounted for 81.8 percent of exports in February, compared with 81.7 percent in January
§ Nickel advanced for a third day in London on speculation demand from China, the world's largest user, will expand because of rising production of stainless steel. Copper and tin also gained.
§ Chinese stainless steelmakers will probably boost output by 23 percent this year to 9.1 million metric tons because of strong domestic demand and plant expansion, Macquarie Group Ltd.'s analyst Bonnie Liu said. About 70 percent of world nickel production is used in stainless steel.
§ Recovery in stainless steel demand and increases in coking- coal prices will boost nickel, Liu said today at a conference in Hong Kong. Growth in Chinese nickel imports are a ``natural result,'' she said.
MCX Copper April (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations -MCX Copper April: Buy at 338 Target 349 and 356 Stop loss 332
MCX Zinc March (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations -MCX Zinc March: Buy at 94.50 Target 97 and 98.80 Stop loss at 93.15
MCX Nickel March (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:MCX Nickel March: Buy at 1225 Target 1280 and 1295 Stop loss at 1205
MCX Lead Feb (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations: MCX Lead March: Buy at 115.50 Target 117 and 119 Stop loss at 114.20
MCXARUN
9994500540
Energy intraday
§ Oil prices raced higher as a pipeline blast in key crude producer Iraq sparked supply jitters and geopolitical tension.
§ An explosion was reported at an oil pipeline in southern Iraq, near Basra. It is not yet known what impact the damage will have on Iraq's exports. It was the second attack on an Iraqi pipeline this week. May crude oil is steady.
§ The dollar has recouped earlier losses on relief that today's US GDP data did not yield any nasty surprises. The news that the Commerce Department left US GDP growth at an unrevised annualised rate of 0.6 pct, with consumer spending higher, bolstered US stock futures, helping the dollar to climb towards day highs against both the euro and the yen.
§ The U.S. Department of Energy said that underground supplies of natural gas were down 36 billion cubic feet last week to 1.277 trillion cubic feet. Supplies are now down 16% from a year ago.
MCX Crude Oil April (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil April: Buy at 4245 Target 4315 and 4365 Stop loss 4215
MCX Natural gas April (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations- MCX Natural Gas April: Buy at 385 Target 393 and 399 Stop loss 376
MCXARUN
9994500540
§ An explosion was reported at an oil pipeline in southern Iraq, near Basra. It is not yet known what impact the damage will have on Iraq's exports. It was the second attack on an Iraqi pipeline this week. May crude oil is steady.
§ The dollar has recouped earlier losses on relief that today's US GDP data did not yield any nasty surprises. The news that the Commerce Department left US GDP growth at an unrevised annualised rate of 0.6 pct, with consumer spending higher, bolstered US stock futures, helping the dollar to climb towards day highs against both the euro and the yen.
§ The U.S. Department of Energy said that underground supplies of natural gas were down 36 billion cubic feet last week to 1.277 trillion cubic feet. Supplies are now down 16% from a year ago.
MCX Crude Oil April (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil April: Buy at 4245 Target 4315 and 4365 Stop loss 4215
MCX Natural gas April (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations- MCX Natural Gas April: Buy at 385 Target 393 and 399 Stop loss 376
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SAFE TRADE CALLS
GOLD
now as long support 11875-825, expect some upside test 12175-275-400 ALMOST ACHIEVED. for the day buy only abv 12400 S/L 12370 and T/p 12425/500 upto 12550 in coming days OR sell below 12210 S/L 12230 and T/p 12185-80/12115-125/sustain below test 11950 atleast in coming days (any time close above 12400/13100/13400 bullish while close below 12115/11830/11575-475/11300/10950-900/10500/10050/ 9850/9575 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
for the day buy only abv 24000 S/L 23925 and T/p 24100/24300-400 atleast OR sell below 23525 S/L 23610 and T/p 23450/23300-250/sustain below test 23000 atleast in coming days (any time close below 22900/22100-21975/21250/ 20150/19390/18600-250/17850 bearish rally while close above 24000/26100/ 27500 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
book profit on buy abv 4240, fresh buy only abv 4315 & more abv 4335 S/L 4300 and T/p 4360/4405 atleast OR sell below 4245 & more below 4225-4200 S/L 4265 and T/p 4140-50 atleast (now crude need to close above 4335/4460-85 for bullish rally while close below 4030/3960/3830/3585/3415-3390 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
now as long resist 342.5, expect down trend continue, book profit on buy abv 331.5, fresh buy only abv 342.5 S/L 340.75 and T/p 345-347.5/sustain abv seen new rally OR buy ard 333-333.1 S/L 332.5 and T/p 335-37, sustain below 331.5 test 328-326 atleast (upside strong rally only on close above 342.5/348/354 while close below 329/ 310.5-303/281/267.5/254.5/235 bearish for medium term)
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now as long support 11875-825, expect some upside test 12175-275-400 ALMOST ACHIEVED. for the day buy only abv 12400 S/L 12370 and T/p 12425/500 upto 12550 in coming days OR sell below 12210 S/L 12230 and T/p 12185-80/12115-125/sustain below test 11950 atleast in coming days (any time close above 12400/13100/13400 bullish while close below 12115/11830/11575-475/11300/10950-900/10500/10050/ 9850/9575 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
for the day buy only abv 24000 S/L 23925 and T/p 24100/24300-400 atleast OR sell below 23525 S/L 23610 and T/p 23450/23300-250/sustain below test 23000 atleast in coming days (any time close below 22900/22100-21975/21250/ 20150/19390/18600-250/17850 bearish rally while close above 24000/26100/ 27500 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
book profit on buy abv 4240, fresh buy only abv 4315 & more abv 4335 S/L 4300 and T/p 4360/4405 atleast OR sell below 4245 & more below 4225-4200 S/L 4265 and T/p 4140-50 atleast (now crude need to close above 4335/4460-85 for bullish rally while close below 4030/3960/3830/3585/3415-3390 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
now as long resist 342.5, expect down trend continue, book profit on buy abv 331.5, fresh buy only abv 342.5 S/L 340.75 and T/p 345-347.5/sustain abv seen new rally OR buy ard 333-333.1 S/L 332.5 and T/p 335-37, sustain below 331.5 test 328-326 atleast (upside strong rally only on close above 342.5/348/354 while close below 329/ 310.5-303/281/267.5/254.5/235 bearish for medium term)
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bullion intraday
§ Gold fell in New York after the dollar rebounded against the euro. Silver also declined.
§ The dollar rose as much as 0.8 percent against the euro after falling within 1 cent of the all-time low yesterday. Gold reached a record $1,033.90 an ounce on March 17 when the euro rose to the highest ever.
§ Investment demand in the Street Tracks Gold Trust, the biggest exchange-traded fund backed by bullion, has remained unchanged at 634 metric tons this week after reaching a record 663.8 metric tons on March 17.
§ The US government says fewer people signed up for unemployment benefits last week, although that didn't change the broader picture of a slower jobs market. The US economy nearly sputtered out in the final quarter of last year and is probably faring even worse now amid the continuing housing, credit and financial crises.
§ Russians are opening a record number of precious metals bank accounts and buying more bullion as gold trades near its all-time high, the country's biggest bank said.
US Economy:
§ The Commerce Department reported Thursday that gross domestic product increased at a feeble 0.6 percent annual rate in the October-to-December quarter. The reading - unchanged from a previous estimate a month ago - provided stark evidence of just how much the economy has weakened. In the prior quarter, the economy clocked in at a sizzling 4.9 percent growth rate.
§ The Labor Department, in a new report Thursday, says new applications filed for unemployment benefits last week fell by a seasonally adjusted 9,000 to 366,000. That level of 366,000 was better than the 371,000 that many economists were forecasting. Still, economists predict the nation's labor market will slow and unemployment will rise this year, given the credit and financial crises.
MCX Gold Apr (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations -MCX Gold April: Buy at 12245-30 Target 12320 and 12360 Stop loss 12210
MCX Silver May (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations -MCX Silver May: Buy at 23550 Target 23940 and 24160 stop loss 23415
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§ The dollar rose as much as 0.8 percent against the euro after falling within 1 cent of the all-time low yesterday. Gold reached a record $1,033.90 an ounce on March 17 when the euro rose to the highest ever.
§ Investment demand in the Street Tracks Gold Trust, the biggest exchange-traded fund backed by bullion, has remained unchanged at 634 metric tons this week after reaching a record 663.8 metric tons on March 17.
§ The US government says fewer people signed up for unemployment benefits last week, although that didn't change the broader picture of a slower jobs market. The US economy nearly sputtered out in the final quarter of last year and is probably faring even worse now amid the continuing housing, credit and financial crises.
§ Russians are opening a record number of precious metals bank accounts and buying more bullion as gold trades near its all-time high, the country's biggest bank said.
US Economy:
§ The Commerce Department reported Thursday that gross domestic product increased at a feeble 0.6 percent annual rate in the October-to-December quarter. The reading - unchanged from a previous estimate a month ago - provided stark evidence of just how much the economy has weakened. In the prior quarter, the economy clocked in at a sizzling 4.9 percent growth rate.
§ The Labor Department, in a new report Thursday, says new applications filed for unemployment benefits last week fell by a seasonally adjusted 9,000 to 366,000. That level of 366,000 was better than the 371,000 that many economists were forecasting. Still, economists predict the nation's labor market will slow and unemployment will rise this year, given the credit and financial crises.
MCX Gold Apr (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations -MCX Gold April: Buy at 12245-30 Target 12320 and 12360 Stop loss 12210
MCX Silver May (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations -MCX Silver May: Buy at 23550 Target 23940 and 24160 stop loss 23415
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outlook
June gold closed slightly lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of this week's short covering gains. The mid-range close
sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish hinting that a short-
term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 973.70 are needed to confirm that a short-
term low has been posted. If June renews last week's decline, the 38% retracement level crossing at 897.80 is the next downside
target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 966.30. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 973.70. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 909.00. Second support is the 38% retracement level
crossing at 897.80.
May silver closed higher on Thursday as it extends this week's short covering rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a
steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is
near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.443 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
If May renews last week's decline, the 50% retracement level crossing at 16.585 is the next downside target. First resistance is
today's high crossing at 18.685 then the 25% retracement level crossing at 19.015. First support is last Thursday's low crossing
at 16.725 then the 50% retracement level crossing at 16.585.
May copper closed higher on Thursday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 379.45 confirming that a short-term
low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are
bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends this week's rally, March's high crossing
at 402.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 371.80 would signal that a short-term
top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 389.40. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 402.40.
First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 371.82. Second support is the 38% retracement level crossing at 358.50.
May crude oil closed higher on Thursday as it extends yesterday's rally above the 10-day moving average crossing at 105.05.
The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends this week's rally, March's high crossing at
110.35 is the next upside target. Closes below last Thursday's low crossing 98.65 would renew this month's decline and could
lead to a test of the 38% retracement level of the 2007-2008- rally crossing at 94.17. First resistance is today's high crossing at
108.22. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 110.35. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 105.04.
Second support is the 25% retracement level crossing at 99.77.
May Henry natural gas closed slightly lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of this week's rally but remains above the 10-
day moving average crossing at 9.551. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics
and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends this week's rally,
March's high crossing at 10.365 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 9.089 would temper the near-
term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is today's high crossing at 9.770 then March's high crossing at 10.365.
First support is the 38% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 9.117. Second support is the 50% retracement level of
this year's rally crossing at 8.732.
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sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish hinting that a short-
term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 973.70 are needed to confirm that a short-
term low has been posted. If June renews last week's decline, the 38% retracement level crossing at 897.80 is the next downside
target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 966.30. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 973.70. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 909.00. Second support is the 38% retracement level
crossing at 897.80.
May silver closed higher on Thursday as it extends this week's short covering rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a
steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is
near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.443 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
If May renews last week's decline, the 50% retracement level crossing at 16.585 is the next downside target. First resistance is
today's high crossing at 18.685 then the 25% retracement level crossing at 19.015. First support is last Thursday's low crossing
at 16.725 then the 50% retracement level crossing at 16.585.
May copper closed higher on Thursday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 379.45 confirming that a short-term
low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are
bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends this week's rally, March's high crossing
at 402.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 371.80 would signal that a short-term
top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 389.40. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 402.40.
First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 371.82. Second support is the 38% retracement level crossing at 358.50.
May crude oil closed higher on Thursday as it extends yesterday's rally above the 10-day moving average crossing at 105.05.
The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends this week's rally, March's high crossing at
110.35 is the next upside target. Closes below last Thursday's low crossing 98.65 would renew this month's decline and could
lead to a test of the 38% retracement level of the 2007-2008- rally crossing at 94.17. First resistance is today's high crossing at
108.22. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 110.35. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 105.04.
Second support is the 25% retracement level crossing at 99.77.
May Henry natural gas closed slightly lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of this week's rally but remains above the 10-
day moving average crossing at 9.551. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics
and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends this week's rally,
March's high crossing at 10.365 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 9.089 would temper the near-
term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is today's high crossing at 9.770 then March's high crossing at 10.365.
First support is the 38% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 9.117. Second support is the 50% retracement level of
this year's rally crossing at 8.732.
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GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
Yesterday was a base metals day as they rose sharply. Copper, Zinc, Nickel, lead and tin all rose sharply. Fund managers are taking fresh long positions in all base metals on expectations of very high demand in the second quarter. Fund managers just jerk up prices of any commodity as and when demand rises. It is for this reason that base metals are more volatile than gold and silver. But even on an intra day basis, base metals (including silver) give more returns than gold or any other precious metals. Steel and Nickel (apart from copper) should be the best performers for the rest of 2008 among the base metals. However base metals should fall in a big way before/just after the Olympics in China as incremental demand from china will start to fall.
Yesterday just before the London open the MCX gold April price fell from INR 12280 to INR 12116 in a few minutes. This was probably due to roll over long positions into the June series. As and when the current contract comes to a close, such movements are natural.
For the day it will be a technical trade in all metals and energies as the quarter comes to a close.
GOLD – JUNE FUTURE
Gold June targets $998.40 and $1039 in April as long as $919 and $898 holds.
COPPER -- MAY FUTURE
$385 price target achieved. Copper targets $402 and $432 in April as long as $365 and $337 holds.
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Yesterday just before the London open the MCX gold April price fell from INR 12280 to INR 12116 in a few minutes. This was probably due to roll over long positions into the June series. As and when the current contract comes to a close, such movements are natural.
For the day it will be a technical trade in all metals and energies as the quarter comes to a close.
GOLD – JUNE FUTURE
Gold June targets $998.40 and $1039 in April as long as $919 and $898 holds.
COPPER -- MAY FUTURE
$385 price target achieved. Copper targets $402 and $432 in April as long as $365 and $337 holds.
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Thursday, March 27, 2008
comex gold outlook
Gold prices resurfaced above $950 a Troy ounce, as the Dollar switched back to the selling mode. Recovery in oil prices also fuelled the bullion’s progress.
International spot gold traded in the range $934.30 - $954.20, and last quoted at $953.50 ($938.30).
Dollar extended losses after the release of fresh economic data added more pressure. On the other hand, the European currency was upbeat following robust data from the Euro-zone’s two biggest economies.
Germany's Ifo institute reported that business confidence in the Europe's biggest economy rose for a third consecutive month. Also, French business sentiment rose unexpectedly in March, reaching its highest level so far this year, according to national statistics office INSEE.
The US Commerce Department reported yesterday that sales of new homes in the US fell to a 13-year low in February, dropping 1.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 590,000.
US consumer confidence index had fallen in March to 64.5 from a revised reading of 76.4 in February, according to a US Conference Board release on Tuesday.
But the report from National Association of Realtors released on Monday had shown that resale of homes rose 2.9% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 5.03 million. The rise was above expectations, and the first in seven months.
Gold had corrected from record high levels reached earlier last week, along with oil, as the Dollar bounced back moderately from record-low levels versus the Euro after the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points to 2.25 percent.
The latest rate cut has been the sixth since last September, and has made the reduction in the federal funds rate to 300 basis points, to the lowest point since late 2004. But many market participants and analysts had anticipated an even more severe cut by the Fed, a full 100 basis points, amid serious concerns regarding a recession in US economy.
Crude oil for May delivery in NYMEX settled at $106.21 ($101.22) a barrel, after trading in the range $101.43 - $106.36.
The weekly update by US Energy Department’s Energy Information Administration said US crude stockpiles remained unchanged at 311.8 million barrels in the week ended March 21, while a rise of around 1.5 million barrels had been widely expected.
The Commerce Department had reported last week a drop in US housing starts in February by 0.6 percent to a 1.065 million unit annual rate, down from 1.071 million units in January.
The economic worries and a nose-diving dollar had propelled spot gold to record an all-time high of $1030.80 a Troy ounce last week.
The Federal Reserve in a an unexpected move had cut its discount rate for direct loans to banks by 0.25 percent point to 3.25 percent, and launched a new discount window facility for primary dealers, in desperate moves to stabilize financial markets.
The emergency moves by Fed boosted speculations regarding the possibilities for more casualties in the widening US financial crisis.
Meanwhile, the US Commerce Department reported that the US trade deficit widened slightly in January, up 0.6% to $58.2 billion.
Medium term outlook (Spot Gold)
Bullish above $916; Resistances are $926, $932, $947, $954, $973, $984, $995, $1002, $1022, $1035, $1052; supports $896, $883. Further up-trend is expected above $954.60.
Last day DGCX Gold June traded in the range $939.30 – $956.90 and closed at $955.20 ($941.90).
DGCX Gold June
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (June) - Bullish above $ 954; bearish below $ 949
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International spot gold traded in the range $934.30 - $954.20, and last quoted at $953.50 ($938.30).
Dollar extended losses after the release of fresh economic data added more pressure. On the other hand, the European currency was upbeat following robust data from the Euro-zone’s two biggest economies.
Germany's Ifo institute reported that business confidence in the Europe's biggest economy rose for a third consecutive month. Also, French business sentiment rose unexpectedly in March, reaching its highest level so far this year, according to national statistics office INSEE.
The US Commerce Department reported yesterday that sales of new homes in the US fell to a 13-year low in February, dropping 1.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 590,000.
US consumer confidence index had fallen in March to 64.5 from a revised reading of 76.4 in February, according to a US Conference Board release on Tuesday.
But the report from National Association of Realtors released on Monday had shown that resale of homes rose 2.9% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 5.03 million. The rise was above expectations, and the first in seven months.
Gold had corrected from record high levels reached earlier last week, along with oil, as the Dollar bounced back moderately from record-low levels versus the Euro after the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points to 2.25 percent.
The latest rate cut has been the sixth since last September, and has made the reduction in the federal funds rate to 300 basis points, to the lowest point since late 2004. But many market participants and analysts had anticipated an even more severe cut by the Fed, a full 100 basis points, amid serious concerns regarding a recession in US economy.
Crude oil for May delivery in NYMEX settled at $106.21 ($101.22) a barrel, after trading in the range $101.43 - $106.36.
The weekly update by US Energy Department’s Energy Information Administration said US crude stockpiles remained unchanged at 311.8 million barrels in the week ended March 21, while a rise of around 1.5 million barrels had been widely expected.
The Commerce Department had reported last week a drop in US housing starts in February by 0.6 percent to a 1.065 million unit annual rate, down from 1.071 million units in January.
The economic worries and a nose-diving dollar had propelled spot gold to record an all-time high of $1030.80 a Troy ounce last week.
The Federal Reserve in a an unexpected move had cut its discount rate for direct loans to banks by 0.25 percent point to 3.25 percent, and launched a new discount window facility for primary dealers, in desperate moves to stabilize financial markets.
The emergency moves by Fed boosted speculations regarding the possibilities for more casualties in the widening US financial crisis.
Meanwhile, the US Commerce Department reported that the US trade deficit widened slightly in January, up 0.6% to $58.2 billion.
Medium term outlook (Spot Gold)
Bullish above $916; Resistances are $926, $932, $947, $954, $973, $984, $995, $1002, $1022, $1035, $1052; supports $896, $883. Further up-trend is expected above $954.60.
Last day DGCX Gold June traded in the range $939.30 – $956.90 and closed at $955.20 ($941.90).
DGCX Gold June
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (June) - Bullish above $ 954; bearish below $ 949
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Safe trade calls
GOLD
now as long support 11875-825, expect some upside test 12175-275-400 in coming days.. buy at every deep. book profit on buy abv 12150-165, for the day buy abv 12360 S/L 12340 and T/p 12400 -425/towards 12550 in coming days OR buy ard 12135-40 S/L 12125 and T/p 12180-230/280 upto 12325 (any time close above 12375/13100/13400 bullish while close below 11830/11575-475/ 11300/10950-900/10500/10050/9850/ 9575 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
book profit on buy abv 22475-525, for the day buy only abv 23950 S/L 23860 and T/p 24050-100/24300-400 OR buy ard 23140-50 S/L 23100 and T/p 23350 upto 23550 (any time close below 22900/22100-21975/21250/ 20150/ 19390/18600-250/17850 bearish rally while close above 23950/26100/ 27500 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
buy only abv 4240 S/L 4220 and T/p 4265-85/upto 4320 OR buy ard 4135-40 S/L 4130 and T/p 4180-4200 (now crude need to close above 4335/4460-85 for bullish rally while close below 4030/ 3960/3830/3585/3415-3390 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
buy only abv 331.5 S/L 330 and T/p 333 -335.5/upto 337.5 OR sell below 324.5-323 S/L 326 and T/p 322/319.5/318 upto 314.5 (upside strong rally only on close above 335.5/348/354 while close below 310.5-303/281/267.5/254.5/235 bearish for medium term)
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now as long support 11875-825, expect some upside test 12175-275-400 in coming days.. buy at every deep. book profit on buy abv 12150-165, for the day buy abv 12360 S/L 12340 and T/p 12400 -425/towards 12550 in coming days OR buy ard 12135-40 S/L 12125 and T/p 12180-230/280 upto 12325 (any time close above 12375/13100/13400 bullish while close below 11830/11575-475/ 11300/10950-900/10500/10050/9850/ 9575 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
book profit on buy abv 22475-525, for the day buy only abv 23950 S/L 23860 and T/p 24050-100/24300-400 OR buy ard 23140-50 S/L 23100 and T/p 23350 upto 23550 (any time close below 22900/22100-21975/21250/ 20150/ 19390/18600-250/17850 bearish rally while close above 23950/26100/ 27500 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
buy only abv 4240 S/L 4220 and T/p 4265-85/upto 4320 OR buy ard 4135-40 S/L 4130 and T/p 4180-4200 (now crude need to close above 4335/4460-85 for bullish rally while close below 4030/ 3960/3830/3585/3415-3390 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
buy only abv 331.5 S/L 330 and T/p 333 -335.5/upto 337.5 OR sell below 324.5-323 S/L 326 and T/p 322/319.5/318 upto 314.5 (upside strong rally only on close above 335.5/348/354 while close below 310.5-303/281/267.5/254.5/235 bearish for medium term)
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long view
LEAD
LIKELY TO TEST 104.5 UPTO 101 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 107..5, WHILE CLOSE ABOVE 113.5 & 129 SOME UPSIDE MORE(APRIL)
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LIKELY TO TEST 104.5 UPTO 101 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 107..5, WHILE CLOSE ABOVE 113.5 & 129 SOME UPSIDE MORE(APRIL)
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Bullion intraday
§ Gold rose for the second straight day inNew York as the dollar dropped against the euro. Silver also gained.
§ The euro climbed as much as 0.7 percent versus the dollar after jumping 1.5 percent yesterday. Gold reached a record $1,033.90 an ounce on March 17 as the euro traded at an all-time high of $1.5903.
§ The dollar fell against the euro today after reports showed German business confidence increased in March and orders forU.S. durable goods dropped in February, fueling speculation that interest rates in theU.S. may continue to drop while borrowing costs inEurope remain steady.
§ The Federal Reserve has cut theU.S. benchmark rate six times since September from 5.25 percent to 2.25 percent. The European Central Bank has kept its main lending rate at a six- year high of 4 percent since June.
§ Investment in Barclays Plc's iShares Silver Trust, the biggest exchange-traded fund backed by silver, has remained unchanged at a record 5,579 metric tons since March 18.
§ Investment in the StreetTracks Gold Trust, the biggest exchange-traded fund backed by bullion, is unchanged at 634 metric tons in the past two days. It reached a record 663.8 tons on March 17.
§ The U.S. Treasury, in a policy reversal, said yesterday it backed an IMF plan to sell some $98 billion in gold reserves to help make up for a decline in revenue. An advisory group recommended the sales be carried out within the quota set for annual gold sales by the Central Bank Gold Agreement, or CBGA. TheU.S. is the IMF's largest shareholder.
US Economy:
§ The U.S. Census Bureau said that new home sales were at an annual rate of 590,000 units in February, down 1.8% on the month and down 29.8% from a year ago. Even though sales were down, they were a little better than expected.
§ The U.S. Commerce Department said that durable goods orders were down 1.7% in February. Excluding transportation, orders were down 2.6%.
Currency Update:
§ The Ifo Institute's index of German business confidence increased from 104.1 to 104.8 in March, better than expected.
§ Eurostat said that its index of industrial new orders for the Euro area 15 was up 2.0% in January and up 7.3% from a year ago. The June euro is trading higher.
MCX Gold Apr (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations -MCX Gold April: Buy at 12245-30 Target 12320 and 12360 Stop loss 12210
MCX Silver May (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations -MCX Silver May: Buy at 23550 Target 23940 and 24160 stop loss 23415
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§ The euro climbed as much as 0.7 percent versus the dollar after jumping 1.5 percent yesterday. Gold reached a record $1,033.90 an ounce on March 17 as the euro traded at an all-time high of $1.5903.
§ The dollar fell against the euro today after reports showed German business confidence increased in March and orders forU.S. durable goods dropped in February, fueling speculation that interest rates in theU.S. may continue to drop while borrowing costs inEurope remain steady.
§ The Federal Reserve has cut theU.S. benchmark rate six times since September from 5.25 percent to 2.25 percent. The European Central Bank has kept its main lending rate at a six- year high of 4 percent since June.
§ Investment in Barclays Plc's iShares Silver Trust, the biggest exchange-traded fund backed by silver, has remained unchanged at a record 5,579 metric tons since March 18.
§ Investment in the StreetTracks Gold Trust, the biggest exchange-traded fund backed by bullion, is unchanged at 634 metric tons in the past two days. It reached a record 663.8 tons on March 17.
§ The U.S. Treasury, in a policy reversal, said yesterday it backed an IMF plan to sell some $98 billion in gold reserves to help make up for a decline in revenue. An advisory group recommended the sales be carried out within the quota set for annual gold sales by the Central Bank Gold Agreement, or CBGA. TheU.S. is the IMF's largest shareholder.
US Economy:
§ The U.S. Census Bureau said that new home sales were at an annual rate of 590,000 units in February, down 1.8% on the month and down 29.8% from a year ago. Even though sales were down, they were a little better than expected.
§ The U.S. Commerce Department said that durable goods orders were down 1.7% in February. Excluding transportation, orders were down 2.6%.
Currency Update:
§ The Ifo Institute's index of German business confidence increased from 104.1 to 104.8 in March, better than expected.
§ Eurostat said that its index of industrial new orders for the Euro area 15 was up 2.0% in January and up 7.3% from a year ago. The June euro is trading higher.
MCX Gold Apr (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations -MCX Gold April: Buy at 12245-30 Target 12320 and 12360 Stop loss 12210
MCX Silver May (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations -MCX Silver May: Buy at 23550 Target 23940 and 24160 stop loss 23415
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outlook
June gold closed sharply higher for the second day in row on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off last week's
high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and
are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average
crossing at 974.30 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews last week's decline, the 38%
retracement level crossing at 897.80 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at
969.60. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 974.30. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at
909.00. Second support is the 38% retracement level crossing at 897.80.
May silver closed sharply higher for the second day in row on Wednesday as it consolidated some of last week's decline. The
high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning
neutral to bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at
19.488 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews last week's decline, the 50% retracement
level crossing at 16.585 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 18.490 then the 25% retracement
level crossing at 19.015. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 16.725 then the 50% retracement level crossing at
16.585.
May copper closed higher on Wednesday and above the 10-day moving average crossing at 371.73 signaling that a short-term
low has likely been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the
RSI have turned bullish hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average
crossing at 379.47 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If May renews last week's decline, the 50% retracement
level of the December-March rally crossing at 344.85 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at
375.00. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 379.47. First support is the 38% retracement level of the
December-March rally crossing at 358.50. Second support is the 50% retracement level crossing at 358.50.
May crude oil closed sharply higher on Wednesday and above the 10-day moving average crossing at 105.15 confirming that a
short-term low has been posted. Today's inventory report along with speculator buying underpinned today's rally. The high-
range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral hinting that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends today's rally, March's high crossing at 110.35 is the next
upside target. Closes below last Thursday's low crossing 98.65 would renew this month's decline and could lead to a test of the
38% retracement level of the 2007-2008- rally crossing at 94.17. First resistance is today's high crossing at 106.20. Second
resistance is March's high crossing at 110.35. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 104.13. Second support is
the 25% retracement level crossing at 99.77.
May Henry natural gas closed higher on Wednesday and above the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.589 confirming that a
short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and
the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below Monday's low
crossing at 9.089 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. If April renews last week's decline, the 50%
retracement level of December-March rally crossing at 8.732 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high
crossing at 9.749 then March's high crossing at 10.365. First support is last Monday's low crossing at 9.089. Second support is
the 50% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 8.732.
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high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and
are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average
crossing at 974.30 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews last week's decline, the 38%
retracement level crossing at 897.80 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at
969.60. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 974.30. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at
909.00. Second support is the 38% retracement level crossing at 897.80.
May silver closed sharply higher for the second day in row on Wednesday as it consolidated some of last week's decline. The
high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning
neutral to bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at
19.488 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews last week's decline, the 50% retracement
level crossing at 16.585 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 18.490 then the 25% retracement
level crossing at 19.015. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 16.725 then the 50% retracement level crossing at
16.585.
May copper closed higher on Wednesday and above the 10-day moving average crossing at 371.73 signaling that a short-term
low has likely been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the
RSI have turned bullish hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average
crossing at 379.47 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If May renews last week's decline, the 50% retracement
level of the December-March rally crossing at 344.85 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at
375.00. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 379.47. First support is the 38% retracement level of the
December-March rally crossing at 358.50. Second support is the 50% retracement level crossing at 358.50.
May crude oil closed sharply higher on Wednesday and above the 10-day moving average crossing at 105.15 confirming that a
short-term low has been posted. Today's inventory report along with speculator buying underpinned today's rally. The high-
range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral hinting that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends today's rally, March's high crossing at 110.35 is the next
upside target. Closes below last Thursday's low crossing 98.65 would renew this month's decline and could lead to a test of the
38% retracement level of the 2007-2008- rally crossing at 94.17. First resistance is today's high crossing at 106.20. Second
resistance is March's high crossing at 110.35. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 104.13. Second support is
the 25% retracement level crossing at 99.77.
May Henry natural gas closed higher on Wednesday and above the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.589 confirming that a
short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and
the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below Monday's low
crossing at 9.089 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. If April renews last week's decline, the 50%
retracement level of December-March rally crossing at 8.732 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high
crossing at 9.749 then March's high crossing at 10.365. First support is last Monday's low crossing at 9.089. Second support is
the 50% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 8.732.
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GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
It’s back to the US dollar story for metals and energies. Metals and energies pared some of their last week’s losses on renewed US dollar woes. As long as the US dollar continues to weaken, metals and energies will remain firm. I am not surprised by US weak economic data. The effects of the Fed’s interest rate cuts will be felt only in the third quarter (after June), till then softness in the US economy will continue. Interest rate bets are also dictating the markets. If the US economy worsens further markets will start pricing in a more aggressive interest rate cut. Fed fund rates are at 2.25%. Under the worst case scenario Fed fund rates will fall back to 0.50% towards the close of the year. After the Fed finishes cutting interest rates what will happen to the US dollar?
Retail investors had invested in Indian equities in a big way in January (before the slide) and are using the current rise to exit stocks if their prices come. These investors are exiting stocks and investing in commodities. This will continue not just in India but also in other countries as stock markets remain volatile. Gold’s rise from $980 to $1032 resulted in shorts get squared off and fresh longs being created. Longs also got squared off when prices fell to $997 to near $900 due to lack of margin money. If such volatility happens in gold, even gold’s safe haven status will disappear and investors will sit on cash or invest in treasuries. Last week’s fall has scared off investors who have become short term traders.
SILVER -- MAY FUTURE
Silver targets $2000 -$2100 in short term as long as $1600-$1630 holds.
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Retail investors had invested in Indian equities in a big way in January (before the slide) and are using the current rise to exit stocks if their prices come. These investors are exiting stocks and investing in commodities. This will continue not just in India but also in other countries as stock markets remain volatile. Gold’s rise from $980 to $1032 resulted in shorts get squared off and fresh longs being created. Longs also got squared off when prices fell to $997 to near $900 due to lack of margin money. If such volatility happens in gold, even gold’s safe haven status will disappear and investors will sit on cash or invest in treasuries. Last week’s fall has scared off investors who have become short term traders.
SILVER -- MAY FUTURE
Silver targets $2000 -$2100 in short term as long as $1600-$1630 holds.
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Wednesday, March 26, 2008
Safe trade calls
GOLD
now as long support 11875-825, expect some upside test 12175-275-400 in coming days.. buy at every deep. for the day buy only abv 12150-165 S/L 12120 and T/p 12210-245-275 upto 12325 OR buy ard 12000-5 S/L 11990 and T/p 12050-100. only close below 11830 down rally again test 11675-700 atleast (any time close above 12375/13100/ 13400 bullish while close below 11830/ 11575-475/11300/10950-900/10500/ 10050/9850/9575 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
now as long support 22475 & 21975, expect upside test 22550-875/950 upto 23300 in coming days...buy at every deep. book profit on buy abv 22475-525, for the day buy abv 23100 S/L 23010 and T/p 23200-250/300/400 OR buy ard 22600-610 S/L 22575 and T/p 22725/ 22875. only sustain close below 21975 down rally again test 21500 atleast (any time close below 22475/21975/21250/ 20150/19390/18600-250/17850 bearish rally while close above 23900/26100/ 27500 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
book profit on sell 4230-35/4130/4030-4000, for the day sell only below 3960-50 S/L 3980 and T/p 3910-3880 atleast OR sell ard 4095-100 S/L 4105 and T/p 4070-55/4035 (now crude need to close above 4160/4335/4460-85 for bullish rally while close below 3960/3830/3585/ 3415-3390 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
book profit on buy abv 323-24, fresh buy abv 327 S/L 325.25 and T/p 328.5-330/ 332.5/335.5/uprally OR sell below 323 S/L 324.5 and T/p 322/319.5/318 upto 314.5 (upside strong rally only on close above 327/335.5/348/354 while close below 313.5-303/281/267.5/254.5/235 bearish for medium term)
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now as long support 11875-825, expect some upside test 12175-275-400 in coming days.. buy at every deep. for the day buy only abv 12150-165 S/L 12120 and T/p 12210-245-275 upto 12325 OR buy ard 12000-5 S/L 11990 and T/p 12050-100. only close below 11830 down rally again test 11675-700 atleast (any time close above 12375/13100/ 13400 bullish while close below 11830/ 11575-475/11300/10950-900/10500/ 10050/9850/9575 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
now as long support 22475 & 21975, expect upside test 22550-875/950 upto 23300 in coming days...buy at every deep. book profit on buy abv 22475-525, for the day buy abv 23100 S/L 23010 and T/p 23200-250/300/400 OR buy ard 22600-610 S/L 22575 and T/p 22725/ 22875. only sustain close below 21975 down rally again test 21500 atleast (any time close below 22475/21975/21250/ 20150/19390/18600-250/17850 bearish rally while close above 23900/26100/ 27500 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
book profit on sell 4230-35/4130/4030-4000, for the day sell only below 3960-50 S/L 3980 and T/p 3910-3880 atleast OR sell ard 4095-100 S/L 4105 and T/p 4070-55/4035 (now crude need to close above 4160/4335/4460-85 for bullish rally while close below 3960/3830/3585/ 3415-3390 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
book profit on buy abv 323-24, fresh buy abv 327 S/L 325.25 and T/p 328.5-330/ 332.5/335.5/uprally OR sell below 323 S/L 324.5 and T/p 322/319.5/318 upto 314.5 (upside strong rally only on close above 327/335.5/348/354 while close below 313.5-303/281/267.5/254.5/235 bearish for medium term)
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Gold Outlook
Gold prices bounced back yesterday to close higher, as the Dollar weakened sharply. Oil prices rose moderately, also supporting the advance of the bullion.
International spot gold traded in the range $911.50 - $938.80, and last quoted at $938.30 ($914.70).
According to a US Conference Board release yesterday, US consumer confidence index fell in March to 64.5 from a revised reading of 76.4 in February.
But the report from National Association of Realtors released on Monday had indicated signs of stability in the US housing market in February. According to the report, resale of homes rose 2.9% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 5.03 million. The rise was above expectations, and the first in seven months.
Gold had corrected from record high levels reached earlier last week, along with oil, as the Dollar bounced back moderately from record-low levels versus the Euro after the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points to 2.25 percent.
The latest rate cut has been the sixth since last September, and has made the reduction in the federal funds rate to 300 basis points, to the lowest point since late 2004. But many market participants and analysts had anticipated an even more severe cut by the Fed, a full 100 basis points, amid serious concerns regarding a recession in US economy.
Crude oil for May delivery in NYMEX settled at $101.22 ($100.86) a barrel, closing higher for the first time in four days.
The US Energy Department’s weekly oil inventory report is due for release today.
The Commerce Department had reported last week a drop in US housing starts in February by 0.6 percent to a 1.065 million unit annual rate, down from 1.071 million units in January.
The economic worries and a nose-diving dollar had propelled spot gold to record an all-time high of $1030.80 a Troy ounce last week.
In the meantime US Labor Department’s Producer Price Index, which measures inflation pressures before they reach the consumer, rose 0.3 percent in February following a 1.0 increase in January.
The Federal Reserve in a an unexpected move had cut its discount rate for direct loans to banks by 0.25 percent point to 3.25 percent, and launched a new discount window facility for primary dealers, in desperate moves to stabilize financial markets.
The emergency moves by Fed boosted speculations regarding the possibilities for more casualties in the widening US financial crisis.
Adding to the pressure on the greenback, data from the US showed total industrial output fell 0.5 percent in February, much steeper than the expected rate of 0.1 percent.
Another release showed US homebuilders' confidence held steady in March. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index for March remained unchanged at 20.
The US Commerce department reported a worse-than-expected 0.6 percent fall in the Retail Sales in February.
Another release by the US Labor Department showed the initial claims for state unemployment benefits remained unchanged at 353,000 in the week ended March 8. The four-week average of initial claims fell slightly in the latest week, down by 1,250 to 358,500.
Meanwhile, the US Commerce Department reported that the US trade deficit widened slightly in January, up 0.6% to $58.2 billion.
Medium term outlook (Spot Gold)
Bullish above $916; Resistances are $926, $932, $947, $954, $973, $984, $995, $1002, $1022, $1035, $1052; supports $896, $883. Further up-trend is expected above $954.60.
Last day DGCX Gold June traded in the range $921.00 – $944.00 and closed at $941.90.
DGCX Gold June
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (June) - Bullish above $ 940; bearish below $ 935
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Base metals intraday
§ A widely watched index of U.S. home prices fell 11.4 percent in January, its steepest drop since data for the indicator was first collected in 1987.The decline reported Tuesday in the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller index means prices have been growing more slowly or dropping for 19 consecutive months. The index tracks the prices of single-family homes in 10 major metropolitan areas in the U.S.
§ Consumer confidence sank to a five-year low in March as tight credit markets, rising prices and worsening job prospects made many worry that the economy has fallen into recession. The Conference Board, a business-backed research group, said Tuesday that its Consumer Confidence Index plunged to 64.5 in March from a revised 76.4 in February. That was far below the 73.0 expected by analysts surveyed.
Major Headline:
§ Copper gained for the second straight day in New York as bank stocks led a rebound in global equities, easing concern that financial-market turmoil would roil metals and other raw materials.
§ Jiangxi Copper Co., China's second- biggest smelter of the metal, said full-year profit fell 13 percent after processing fees dropped. Net income declined to 4.2 billion yuan ($596 million), or 1.4 yuan a share last year, the Guixi, Jiangxi province-based company said in a statement today. The profit compares with the 4.5 billion yuan median estimate of 22 analysts compiled by Bloomberg.
§ Chinese smelters agreed to a 37 percent cut in fees they charged to process metals last year because of competition among themselves and from India. Jiangxi Copper, which needs to buy almost 80 percent of its concentrates, and competitors agreed to a further cut in fees this year.
§ Hindalco Industries Ltd., India's biggest producer of non-ferrous metals, plans to shut one of its three copper smelters for maintenance work that may last 40 days.The 180,000-metric ton smelter may be closed in the last week of April or early May, according to a company executive, who declined to be identified, citing internal policy.
§ Japan's output of copper and copper alloy fabricated products, including sheets and tubes, rose 0.4 percent in February from a year earlier, the first increase in 13 months, according to an industry group.
§ Output rose to 85,050 metric tons from 84,678 tons, the Japan Copper and Brass Association said in a faxed statement today, citing preliminary data.
§ Demand for copper alloy products in car and semiconductor manufacturing was recovering, while demand from air conditioner makers and home builders remained weak, according to the group. The association issued preliminary data for output in February and final figures for output, shipments and inventories in January.
§ National Aluminium Co., India's biggest alumina maker, said it plans to shut one of its three production lines for maintenance work that may last a month.The shutdown will reduce the monthly output by one- third, said. National Aluminium produces 1.58 million metric tons of the aluminum-making material annually.
§ Zinc gained the most in a month as some investors deemed recent decline as overdone amid signs of steady demand in China, the world's largest producer and consumer of the metal. Copper, nickel and aluminum also increased.
§ China last month remained a net importer of zinc, according to customs figures yesterday, purchasing 18,050 tons of the metal used to galvanize steel. Stockpiles in Shanghai warehouses fell for the first time in six weeks, according to a report Friday. Cash zinc in Changjiang, Shanghai's biggest spot market, rose as much as 3.7 percent today, following an 8.7 percent loss last week. The London Metal Exchange, closed since March 21 for the Easter holidays, re-opened today. LME zinc fell 13 percentlast week.
Major Economic Data:
§ A widely watched index of U.S. home prices fell 11.4 percent in January, its steepest drop since data for the indicator was first collected in 1987.The decline reported Tuesday in the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller index means prices have been growing more slowly or dropping for 19 consecutive months. The index tracks the prices of single-family homes in 10 major metropolitan areas in the U.S.
§ Consumer confidence sank to a five-year low in March as tight credit markets, rising prices and worsening job prospects made many worry that the economy has fallen into recession. The Conference Board, a business-backed research group, said Tuesday that its Consumer Confidence Index plunged to 64.5 in March from a revised 76.4 in February. That was far below the 73.0 expected by analysts surveyed.
Major Headline:
§ Copper gained for the second straight day in New York as bank stocks led a rebound in global equities, easing concern that financial-market turmoil would roil metals and other raw materials.
§ Jiangxi Copper Co., China's second- biggest smelter of the metal, said full-year profit fell 13 percent after processing fees dropped. Net income declined to 4.2 billion yuan ($596 million), or 1.4 yuan a share last year, the Guixi, Jiangxi province-based company said in a statement today. The profit compares with the 4.5 billion yuan median estimate of 22 analysts compiled by Bloomberg.
§ Chinese smelters agreed to a 37 percent cut in fees they charged to process metals last year because of competition among themselves and from India. Jiangxi Copper, which needs to buy almost 80 percent of its concentrates, and competitors agreed to a further cut in fees this year.
§ Hindalco Industries Ltd., India's biggest producer of non-ferrous metals, plans to shut one of its three copper smelters for maintenance work that may last 40 days.The 180,000-metric ton smelter may be closed in the last week of April or early May, according to a company executive, who declined to be identified, citing internal policy.
§ Japan's output of copper and copper alloy fabricated products, including sheets and tubes, rose 0.4 percent in February from a year earlier, the first increase in 13 months, according to an industry group.
§ Output rose to 85,050 metric tons from 84,678 tons, the Japan Copper and Brass Association said in a faxed statement today, citing preliminary data.
§ Demand for copper alloy products in car and semiconductor manufacturing was recovering, while demand from air conditioner makers and home builders remained weak, according to the group. The association issued preliminary data for output in February and final figures for output, shipments and inventories in January.
§ National Aluminium Co., India's biggest alumina maker, said it plans to shut one of its three production lines for maintenance work that may last a month.The shutdown will reduce the monthly output by one- third, said. National Aluminium produces 1.58 million metric tons of the aluminum-making material annually.
§ Zinc gained the most in a month as some investors deemed recent decline as overdone amid signs of steady demand in China, the world's largest producer and consumer of the metal. Copper, nickel and aluminum also increased.
§ China last month remained a net importer of zinc, according to customs figures yesterday, purchasing 18,050 tons of the metal used to galvanize steel. Stockpiles in Shanghai warehouses fell for the first time in six weeks, according to a report Friday. Cash zinc in Changjiang, Shanghai's biggest spot market, rose as much as 3.7 percent today, following an 8.7 percent loss last week. The London Metal Exchange, closed since March 21 for the Easter holidays, re-opened today. LME zinc fell 13 percentlast week.
LME Inventory update (25 March, 2008)
LONDON METAL EXCHANGE STOCKS
METAL
LAST
NET
PREV
COPPER
120175
-1700
121875
ALUM.
1035350
1475
1033875
ZINC
122600
450
122150
NICKEL
47622
-180
47802
LEAD
46950
225
46725
TIN
9225
-225
9450
MCX Copper April (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations -MCX Copper April: Buy at 323.50 Target 328 and 332 Stop loss 318.50
MCX Zinc March (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations -MCX Zinc March: Sell at 94 Target 93 and 90 Stop loss at 95.50
MCX Nickel March (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:MCX Nickel March: Buy at 1165 Target 1195 and 1215 Stop loss at 1151
MCX Lead Feb (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:MCX Lead March: Sell at 110.50 Target 100.30 and 99.10 Stop loss 111.70
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§ Consumer confidence sank to a five-year low in March as tight credit markets, rising prices and worsening job prospects made many worry that the economy has fallen into recession. The Conference Board, a business-backed research group, said Tuesday that its Consumer Confidence Index plunged to 64.5 in March from a revised 76.4 in February. That was far below the 73.0 expected by analysts surveyed.
Major Headline:
§ Copper gained for the second straight day in New York as bank stocks led a rebound in global equities, easing concern that financial-market turmoil would roil metals and other raw materials.
§ Jiangxi Copper Co., China's second- biggest smelter of the metal, said full-year profit fell 13 percent after processing fees dropped. Net income declined to 4.2 billion yuan ($596 million), or 1.4 yuan a share last year, the Guixi, Jiangxi province-based company said in a statement today. The profit compares with the 4.5 billion yuan median estimate of 22 analysts compiled by Bloomberg.
§ Chinese smelters agreed to a 37 percent cut in fees they charged to process metals last year because of competition among themselves and from India. Jiangxi Copper, which needs to buy almost 80 percent of its concentrates, and competitors agreed to a further cut in fees this year.
§ Hindalco Industries Ltd., India's biggest producer of non-ferrous metals, plans to shut one of its three copper smelters for maintenance work that may last 40 days.The 180,000-metric ton smelter may be closed in the last week of April or early May, according to a company executive, who declined to be identified, citing internal policy.
§ Japan's output of copper and copper alloy fabricated products, including sheets and tubes, rose 0.4 percent in February from a year earlier, the first increase in 13 months, according to an industry group.
§ Output rose to 85,050 metric tons from 84,678 tons, the Japan Copper and Brass Association said in a faxed statement today, citing preliminary data.
§ Demand for copper alloy products in car and semiconductor manufacturing was recovering, while demand from air conditioner makers and home builders remained weak, according to the group. The association issued preliminary data for output in February and final figures for output, shipments and inventories in January.
§ National Aluminium Co., India's biggest alumina maker, said it plans to shut one of its three production lines for maintenance work that may last a month.The shutdown will reduce the monthly output by one- third, said. National Aluminium produces 1.58 million metric tons of the aluminum-making material annually.
§ Zinc gained the most in a month as some investors deemed recent decline as overdone amid signs of steady demand in China, the world's largest producer and consumer of the metal. Copper, nickel and aluminum also increased.
§ China last month remained a net importer of zinc, according to customs figures yesterday, purchasing 18,050 tons of the metal used to galvanize steel. Stockpiles in Shanghai warehouses fell for the first time in six weeks, according to a report Friday. Cash zinc in Changjiang, Shanghai's biggest spot market, rose as much as 3.7 percent today, following an 8.7 percent loss last week. The London Metal Exchange, closed since March 21 for the Easter holidays, re-opened today. LME zinc fell 13 percentlast week.
Major Economic Data:
§ A widely watched index of U.S. home prices fell 11.4 percent in January, its steepest drop since data for the indicator was first collected in 1987.The decline reported Tuesday in the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller index means prices have been growing more slowly or dropping for 19 consecutive months. The index tracks the prices of single-family homes in 10 major metropolitan areas in the U.S.
§ Consumer confidence sank to a five-year low in March as tight credit markets, rising prices and worsening job prospects made many worry that the economy has fallen into recession. The Conference Board, a business-backed research group, said Tuesday that its Consumer Confidence Index plunged to 64.5 in March from a revised 76.4 in February. That was far below the 73.0 expected by analysts surveyed.
Major Headline:
§ Copper gained for the second straight day in New York as bank stocks led a rebound in global equities, easing concern that financial-market turmoil would roil metals and other raw materials.
§ Jiangxi Copper Co., China's second- biggest smelter of the metal, said full-year profit fell 13 percent after processing fees dropped. Net income declined to 4.2 billion yuan ($596 million), or 1.4 yuan a share last year, the Guixi, Jiangxi province-based company said in a statement today. The profit compares with the 4.5 billion yuan median estimate of 22 analysts compiled by Bloomberg.
§ Chinese smelters agreed to a 37 percent cut in fees they charged to process metals last year because of competition among themselves and from India. Jiangxi Copper, which needs to buy almost 80 percent of its concentrates, and competitors agreed to a further cut in fees this year.
§ Hindalco Industries Ltd., India's biggest producer of non-ferrous metals, plans to shut one of its three copper smelters for maintenance work that may last 40 days.The 180,000-metric ton smelter may be closed in the last week of April or early May, according to a company executive, who declined to be identified, citing internal policy.
§ Japan's output of copper and copper alloy fabricated products, including sheets and tubes, rose 0.4 percent in February from a year earlier, the first increase in 13 months, according to an industry group.
§ Output rose to 85,050 metric tons from 84,678 tons, the Japan Copper and Brass Association said in a faxed statement today, citing preliminary data.
§ Demand for copper alloy products in car and semiconductor manufacturing was recovering, while demand from air conditioner makers and home builders remained weak, according to the group. The association issued preliminary data for output in February and final figures for output, shipments and inventories in January.
§ National Aluminium Co., India's biggest alumina maker, said it plans to shut one of its three production lines for maintenance work that may last a month.The shutdown will reduce the monthly output by one- third, said. National Aluminium produces 1.58 million metric tons of the aluminum-making material annually.
§ Zinc gained the most in a month as some investors deemed recent decline as overdone amid signs of steady demand in China, the world's largest producer and consumer of the metal. Copper, nickel and aluminum also increased.
§ China last month remained a net importer of zinc, according to customs figures yesterday, purchasing 18,050 tons of the metal used to galvanize steel. Stockpiles in Shanghai warehouses fell for the first time in six weeks, according to a report Friday. Cash zinc in Changjiang, Shanghai's biggest spot market, rose as much as 3.7 percent today, following an 8.7 percent loss last week. The London Metal Exchange, closed since March 21 for the Easter holidays, re-opened today. LME zinc fell 13 percentlast week.
LME Inventory update (25 March, 2008)
LONDON METAL EXCHANGE STOCKS
METAL
LAST
NET
PREV
COPPER
120175
-1700
121875
ALUM.
1035350
1475
1033875
ZINC
122600
450
122150
NICKEL
47622
-180
47802
LEAD
46950
225
46725
TIN
9225
-225
9450
MCX Copper April (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations -MCX Copper April: Buy at 323.50 Target 328 and 332 Stop loss 318.50
MCX Zinc March (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations -MCX Zinc March: Sell at 94 Target 93 and 90 Stop loss at 95.50
MCX Nickel March (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:MCX Nickel March: Buy at 1165 Target 1195 and 1215 Stop loss at 1151
MCX Lead Feb (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:MCX Lead March: Sell at 110.50 Target 100.30 and 99.10 Stop loss 111.70
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Energy intraday
§ Oil prices recovered Tuesday as rising gasoline prices and a weaker U.S. dollar brought investors back to the market. Oil futures stumbled Tuesday, falling below $100 a barrel after disappointing reports on home prices and consumer confidence raised new worries about the economy.
§ Gas and diesel prices, meanwhile, retreated further from recent their record levels.
§ Consumer confidence fell much more than expected this month, according to the Conference Board. The decline increased the oil market's concerns that hesitant consumers would further weaken the economy and depress demand for fuel.
§ Meanwhile, home prices as measured by the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller index fell by 11.4 percent in January.
§ Many analysts believe the dollar's recent depreciation was the primary reason oil surged to a record near $112 a barrel last week, since oil and other commodities are seen as a hedge against inflation and a falling dollar.
§ The recent decline in oil prices has been far from decisive, and there are signs that some investors are willing to look beyond the dollar for future price direction. Some investors have sold contracts on concerns that a slowing U.S. economy would dampen crude oil demand. Last week, oil prices dipped in part on worry that Bear Stearns' near-collapse was a sign of significant economic problems.
§ Some analysts believe oil's recent declines are temporary -- a correction in a bull market -- and that prices will forge higher again when the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates again, as is widely expected. Lower interest rates tend to weaken the dollar.
§ Heating oil futures were higher as demand was almost 10 percent above average levels for this time of the year, as U.S. weather forecasts were expecting lower temperatures than normal this week, said a report from JBC Energy in Vienna, Austria. At the same time, the "U.S. gasoline contract was reportedly supported by a number of problems with gasoline making units at the country's refineries," JBC Energy said.
MCX Crude Oil April (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil April: Buy at 3980 Target 4065 and 4100 Stop loss 3965
MCX Natural gas April (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas April: Buy at 378 Target 389 and 396 Stop loss 372
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§ Gas and diesel prices, meanwhile, retreated further from recent their record levels.
§ Consumer confidence fell much more than expected this month, according to the Conference Board. The decline increased the oil market's concerns that hesitant consumers would further weaken the economy and depress demand for fuel.
§ Meanwhile, home prices as measured by the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller index fell by 11.4 percent in January.
§ Many analysts believe the dollar's recent depreciation was the primary reason oil surged to a record near $112 a barrel last week, since oil and other commodities are seen as a hedge against inflation and a falling dollar.
§ The recent decline in oil prices has been far from decisive, and there are signs that some investors are willing to look beyond the dollar for future price direction. Some investors have sold contracts on concerns that a slowing U.S. economy would dampen crude oil demand. Last week, oil prices dipped in part on worry that Bear Stearns' near-collapse was a sign of significant economic problems.
§ Some analysts believe oil's recent declines are temporary -- a correction in a bull market -- and that prices will forge higher again when the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates again, as is widely expected. Lower interest rates tend to weaken the dollar.
§ Heating oil futures were higher as demand was almost 10 percent above average levels for this time of the year, as U.S. weather forecasts were expecting lower temperatures than normal this week, said a report from JBC Energy in Vienna, Austria. At the same time, the "U.S. gasoline contract was reportedly supported by a number of problems with gasoline making units at the country's refineries," JBC Energy said.
MCX Crude Oil April (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil April: Buy at 3980 Target 4065 and 4100 Stop loss 3965
MCX Natural gas April (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas April: Buy at 378 Target 389 and 396 Stop loss 372
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Bullion intraday
§ Gold rose inNew York as the dollar resumed a decline against the euro. Silver also gained. The euro climbed as much as 1.1 percent against the dollar after dropping 1.6 percent last week, snapping five consecutive gains. Gold reached a record $1,033.90 an ounce on March 17 as the euro traded at an all-time high $1.5903.
§ The market was reminded of the economy's ongoing problems when the Conference Board, a business-backed research group, said its Consumer Confidence Index plunged to 64.5 in March from a revised 76.4 in February. The reading – a five-year low -- was far below the 73.0 expected by analysts surveyed by Thomson/IFR.
§ Tight credit markets, rising prices and declining employment have consumers worrying aboaut a recession, and the stock market in turn worrying that consumers will cut back their spending and further weaken the economy.
§ Platinum futures in Tokyo gained for a third time in four trading days as the yen halted its gain and on signs demand for the metal will surpass supply as output at mines in South Africa, the world's biggest producer, may decline.
§ Platinum output is expected to lag behind demand this year, while palladium production will probably outpace it, according to Johnson Matthey Plc. The shortfall in platinum production is expected to widen to 400,000 ounces this year, from 265,000 ounces last year, according to a report last month by Standard Bank Group Ltd.
US Economy:
§ The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller index of home prices showed a decline of 11.4% in January, the biggest monthly drop since the index began in 1987.
§ The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped from 76.4 to 64.5 in March, much weaker than expected.
Currency Update:
§ StatisticsCanada reported that retail sales increased 1.5% in January to C$35.8 billion, led by automotive sales. It was the biggest monthly increase in eight months. The June Canadian dollar is steady.
MCX Gold Apr (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations -MCX Gold April: Buy at 12020-30 Target 12110 and 12160 Stop loss 11989
MCX Silver May (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations -MCX Silver May: Buy at 22550 Target 22850 and 23100 stop loss 22280
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§ The market was reminded of the economy's ongoing problems when the Conference Board, a business-backed research group, said its Consumer Confidence Index plunged to 64.5 in March from a revised 76.4 in February. The reading – a five-year low -- was far below the 73.0 expected by analysts surveyed by Thomson/IFR.
§ Tight credit markets, rising prices and declining employment have consumers worrying aboaut a recession, and the stock market in turn worrying that consumers will cut back their spending and further weaken the economy.
§ Platinum futures in Tokyo gained for a third time in four trading days as the yen halted its gain and on signs demand for the metal will surpass supply as output at mines in South Africa, the world's biggest producer, may decline.
§ Platinum output is expected to lag behind demand this year, while palladium production will probably outpace it, according to Johnson Matthey Plc. The shortfall in platinum production is expected to widen to 400,000 ounces this year, from 265,000 ounces last year, according to a report last month by Standard Bank Group Ltd.
US Economy:
§ The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller index of home prices showed a decline of 11.4% in January, the biggest monthly drop since the index began in 1987.
§ The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped from 76.4 to 64.5 in March, much weaker than expected.
Currency Update:
§ StatisticsCanada reported that retail sales increased 1.5% in January to C$35.8 billion, led by automotive sales. It was the biggest monthly increase in eight months. The June Canadian dollar is steady.
MCX Gold Apr (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations -MCX Gold April: Buy at 12020-30 Target 12110 and 12160 Stop loss 11989
MCX Silver May (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations -MCX Silver May: Buy at 22550 Target 22850 and 23100 stop loss 22280
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outlook
June gold closed sharply higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off last week's high. The high-range close sets
the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends last week's decline, the 38% retracement level
crossing at 897.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 974.30 would confirm that
a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 972.30. Second resistance is the 20-
day moving average crossing at 974.30. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 909.00. Second support is the 38%
retracement level crossing at 897.80.
May silver closed higher on Tuesday due to short covering as it consolidated some of last week's decline. The high-range close
sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends last week's decline, the 50% retracement level
crossing at 16.585 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.512 are needed to
confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 17.900 then the 25% retracement level
crossing at 19.015. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 16.725 then the 50% retracement level crossing at 16.585.
May copper closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidates some of last week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a
steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish hinting that a short-term
low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 379.73 are needed to confirm that a low has
been posted. If May renews last week's decline, the 50% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 344.85 is
the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 372.19. Second resistance is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 379.73. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 346.10. Second support is the 50%
retracement level crossing at 358.50.
May crude oil closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidates above the 25% retracement level of the August-March rally crossing
at 99.77. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain
bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends last week's decline, the reaction low
crossing at 98.33 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing 105.32 would confirm that a
short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 103.86. Second resistance is the 10-
day moving average crossing at 105.32. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 98.65. Second support is the reaction
low crossing at 98.33.
May Henry natural gas closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of last week's decline. The high-range close sets the
stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that a short-term low
might be in or is near. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.629 would confirm that a short-term low has been
posted. If April renews last week's decline, the 50% retracement level of December-March rally crossing at 8.732 is the next
downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.592 then the 10-day moving average crossing at
9.629. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 8.750. Second support is the 50% retracement level of this year's rally
crossing at 8.732.
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the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends last week's decline, the 38% retracement level
crossing at 897.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 974.30 would confirm that
a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 972.30. Second resistance is the 20-
day moving average crossing at 974.30. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 909.00. Second support is the 38%
retracement level crossing at 897.80.
May silver closed higher on Tuesday due to short covering as it consolidated some of last week's decline. The high-range close
sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends last week's decline, the 50% retracement level
crossing at 16.585 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.512 are needed to
confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 17.900 then the 25% retracement level
crossing at 19.015. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 16.725 then the 50% retracement level crossing at 16.585.
May copper closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidates some of last week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a
steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish hinting that a short-term
low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 379.73 are needed to confirm that a low has
been posted. If May renews last week's decline, the 50% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 344.85 is
the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 372.19. Second resistance is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 379.73. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 346.10. Second support is the 50%
retracement level crossing at 358.50.
May crude oil closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidates above the 25% retracement level of the August-March rally crossing
at 99.77. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain
bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends last week's decline, the reaction low
crossing at 98.33 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing 105.32 would confirm that a
short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 103.86. Second resistance is the 10-
day moving average crossing at 105.32. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 98.65. Second support is the reaction
low crossing at 98.33.
May Henry natural gas closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of last week's decline. The high-range close sets the
stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that a short-term low
might be in or is near. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.629 would confirm that a short-term low has been
posted. If April renews last week's decline, the 50% retracement level of December-March rally crossing at 8.732 is the next
downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.592 then the 10-day moving average crossing at
9.629. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 8.750. Second support is the 50% retracement level of this year's rally
crossing at 8.732.
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Technicals – MCX (Intra day calls)
CRUDE OIL (April) BULLISH ABOVE 4023BEARISH BELOW 4003
GOLD (April) BULLISH ABOVE 12107BEARISH BELOW 12067
SILVER (May) BULLISH ABOVE 22953 BEARISH BELOW 22860
COPPER (APRIL) BULLISH ABOVE 324.40 BEARISH BELOW 323.30
LEAD (MARCH) BULLISH ABOVE 111.10 BEARISH BELOW 110.50
NICKEL (MARCH) BULLISH ABOVE 1177 BEARISH BELOW 1170
ZINC (MARH) BULLISH ABOVE 93.80 BEARISH BELOW 93.30
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GOLD (April) BULLISH ABOVE 12107BEARISH BELOW 12067
SILVER (May) BULLISH ABOVE 22953 BEARISH BELOW 22860
COPPER (APRIL) BULLISH ABOVE 324.40 BEARISH BELOW 323.30
LEAD (MARCH) BULLISH ABOVE 111.10 BEARISH BELOW 110.50
NICKEL (MARCH) BULLISH ABOVE 1177 BEARISH BELOW 1170
ZINC (MARH) BULLISH ABOVE 93.80 BEARISH BELOW 93.30
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Tuesday, March 25, 2008
SAFE TRADE
GOLD
now as long support 11875-825, expect some upside test 12175-275-400 in coming days.. buy at every deep. book profit on sell below 12310/11960. for the day buy ard 11840-45 S/L 11825 and T/p 11925-12025 OR buy abv 12075 S/L 12050 and T/p 12110-160/12250/12325. only close below 11830 down rally again test 11700 atleast (any time close above 12375/13100/13400 bullish while close below 11830/11575-475/11300/ 10950-900/10500/10050/ 9850/9575 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
now as long support 22050 & 21950, expect upside test 22550-875/950 upto 23300 in coming days...buy at every deep. book profit on sell below 23875/ 22075, for the day buy abv 22475-525 S/L 22400 and T/p 22650-750/22875 upto 23000 OR buy ard 22010-30 S/L 21975 and T/p 22250-350. only sustain close below 21975 down rally again test 21750 atleast (any time close below 21975/21250/20150/19390/ 18600-250/ 17850 bearish rally while close above 23900/26100/27500 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
book profit on sell 4230-35/4130, for the day sell only below 4030 & more below 4000 S/L 4045 and T/p 3960-50 upto 3910-3880 atleast OR sell ard 4145-55 S/L 4160 and T/p 4110-4070 (now crude need to close above 4160/4335/4460-85 for bullish rally while close below 4000-3960/3830/3585/3415-3390 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
book profit on sell below 322/315, for the day sell only below 314.5-313 S/L 316 and T/p 311-10/upto 305, sustain below 303 seen one more down rally OR buy abv 323-24 S/L 321.75 and T/p 326.5-327.75/330/332.5 (upside strong rally only on close above 324/335.5/ 348/354 while close below 310-303/ 281/267.5/254.5/235 bearish for medium term)
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now as long support 11875-825, expect some upside test 12175-275-400 in coming days.. buy at every deep. book profit on sell below 12310/11960. for the day buy ard 11840-45 S/L 11825 and T/p 11925-12025 OR buy abv 12075 S/L 12050 and T/p 12110-160/12250/12325. only close below 11830 down rally again test 11700 atleast (any time close above 12375/13100/13400 bullish while close below 11830/11575-475/11300/ 10950-900/10500/10050/ 9850/9575 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
now as long support 22050 & 21950, expect upside test 22550-875/950 upto 23300 in coming days...buy at every deep. book profit on sell below 23875/ 22075, for the day buy abv 22475-525 S/L 22400 and T/p 22650-750/22875 upto 23000 OR buy ard 22010-30 S/L 21975 and T/p 22250-350. only sustain close below 21975 down rally again test 21750 atleast (any time close below 21975/21250/20150/19390/ 18600-250/ 17850 bearish rally while close above 23900/26100/27500 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
book profit on sell 4230-35/4130, for the day sell only below 4030 & more below 4000 S/L 4045 and T/p 3960-50 upto 3910-3880 atleast OR sell ard 4145-55 S/L 4160 and T/p 4110-4070 (now crude need to close above 4160/4335/4460-85 for bullish rally while close below 4000-3960/3830/3585/3415-3390 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
book profit on sell below 322/315, for the day sell only below 314.5-313 S/L 316 and T/p 311-10/upto 305, sustain below 303 seen one more down rally OR buy abv 323-24 S/L 321.75 and T/p 326.5-327.75/330/332.5 (upside strong rally only on close above 324/335.5/ 348/354 while close below 310-303/ 281/267.5/254.5/235 bearish for medium term)
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Comex gold intraday
Gold prices ended slightly lower yesterday, paring early gains, as the Dollar held firm against the Euro and oil prices extended the previous week losses.
Dollar found support in the report from National Association of Realtors that revealed signs of stability in the US housing market in February. According to the report, resale of homes rose 2.9% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 5.03 million. The rise was above expectations, and the first in seven months.
Gold had corrected from record high levels reached earlier last week, along with oil, as the Dollar bounced back moderately from record-low levels versus the Euro after the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points to 2.25 percent.
The latest rate cut has been the sixth since last September, and has made the reduction in the federal funds rate to 300 basis points, to the lowest point since late 2004. But many market participants and analysts had anticipated an even more severe cut by the Fed, a full 100 basis points, amid serious concerns regarding a recession in US economy.
International spot gold traded in the range $926.30 - $906.00, and last quoted at $914.70 ($919.10).
Crude oil for May delivery in NYMEX settled at $100.86 ($101.84) a barrel, after touching a low of $99.95. US crude inventories rose by 200,000 barrels to 311.8 million barrels in the week ending March 14, according to the latest update by US Energy Information Administration.
The Commerce Department had reported last week a drop in US housing starts in February by 0.6 percent to a 1.065 million unit annual rate, down from 1.071 million units in January.
The economic worries and a nose-diving dollar had propelled spot gold to record an all-time high of $1030.80 a Troy ounce last week.
In the meantime US Labor Department’s Producer Price Index, which measures inflation pressures before they reach the consumer, rose 0.3 percent in February following a 1.0 increase in January.
The Federal Reserve in a an unexpected move had cut its discount rate for direct loans to banks by 0.25 percent point to 3.25 percent, and launched a new discount window facility for primary dealers, in desperate moves to stabilize financial markets.
The emergency moves by Fed boosted speculations regarding the possibilities for more casualties in the widening US financial crisis.
Adding to the pressure on the greenback, data from the US showed total industrial output fell 0.5 percent in February, much steeper than the expected rate of 0.1 percent.
Another release showed US homebuilders' confidence held steady in March. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index for March remained unchanged at 20.
The University of Michigan/Reuters index tracking consumer sentiment had dipped to 70.5 in March from 70.8 in February.
The US Commerce department reported a worse-than-expected 0.6 percent fall in the Retail Sales in February.
Another release by the US Labor Department showed the initial claims for state unemployment benefits remained unchanged at 353,000 in the week ended March 8. The four-week average of initial claims fell slightly in the latest week, down by 1,250 to 358,500.
Meanwhile, the US Commerce Department reported that the US trade deficit widened slightly in January, up 0.6% to $58.2 billion.
Medium term outlook (Spot Gold)
Bullish above $916; Resistances are $926, $932, $947, $954, $973, $984, $995, $1002, $1022, $1035, $1052; supports $896, $883. Further up-trend is expected above $954.60.
Last day DGCX Gold April traded in the range $926.00 – $906.50 and closed at $911.80 ($913.80).
DGCX Gold April
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (April) - Bullish above $ 916; bearish below $ 910
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Dollar found support in the report from National Association of Realtors that revealed signs of stability in the US housing market in February. According to the report, resale of homes rose 2.9% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 5.03 million. The rise was above expectations, and the first in seven months.
Gold had corrected from record high levels reached earlier last week, along with oil, as the Dollar bounced back moderately from record-low levels versus the Euro after the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points to 2.25 percent.
The latest rate cut has been the sixth since last September, and has made the reduction in the federal funds rate to 300 basis points, to the lowest point since late 2004. But many market participants and analysts had anticipated an even more severe cut by the Fed, a full 100 basis points, amid serious concerns regarding a recession in US economy.
International spot gold traded in the range $926.30 - $906.00, and last quoted at $914.70 ($919.10).
Crude oil for May delivery in NYMEX settled at $100.86 ($101.84) a barrel, after touching a low of $99.95. US crude inventories rose by 200,000 barrels to 311.8 million barrels in the week ending March 14, according to the latest update by US Energy Information Administration.
The Commerce Department had reported last week a drop in US housing starts in February by 0.6 percent to a 1.065 million unit annual rate, down from 1.071 million units in January.
The economic worries and a nose-diving dollar had propelled spot gold to record an all-time high of $1030.80 a Troy ounce last week.
In the meantime US Labor Department’s Producer Price Index, which measures inflation pressures before they reach the consumer, rose 0.3 percent in February following a 1.0 increase in January.
The Federal Reserve in a an unexpected move had cut its discount rate for direct loans to banks by 0.25 percent point to 3.25 percent, and launched a new discount window facility for primary dealers, in desperate moves to stabilize financial markets.
The emergency moves by Fed boosted speculations regarding the possibilities for more casualties in the widening US financial crisis.
Adding to the pressure on the greenback, data from the US showed total industrial output fell 0.5 percent in February, much steeper than the expected rate of 0.1 percent.
Another release showed US homebuilders' confidence held steady in March. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index for March remained unchanged at 20.
The University of Michigan/Reuters index tracking consumer sentiment had dipped to 70.5 in March from 70.8 in February.
The US Commerce department reported a worse-than-expected 0.6 percent fall in the Retail Sales in February.
Another release by the US Labor Department showed the initial claims for state unemployment benefits remained unchanged at 353,000 in the week ended March 8. The four-week average of initial claims fell slightly in the latest week, down by 1,250 to 358,500.
Meanwhile, the US Commerce Department reported that the US trade deficit widened slightly in January, up 0.6% to $58.2 billion.
Medium term outlook (Spot Gold)
Bullish above $916; Resistances are $926, $932, $947, $954, $973, $984, $995, $1002, $1022, $1035, $1052; supports $896, $883. Further up-trend is expected above $954.60.
Last day DGCX Gold April traded in the range $926.00 – $906.50 and closed at $911.80 ($913.80).
DGCX Gold April
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (April) - Bullish above $ 916; bearish below $ 910
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outlook
April gold closed lower for the third day in row on Monday and the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening
on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-
term. If April extends last week's decline, the 38% retracement level crossing at 893.70 is the next downside target. Closes
above the 20-day moving average crossing at 968.40 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is
the 10-day moving average crossing at 965.40. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 968.40. First
support is last Thursday's low crossing at 904.70. Second support is the 38% retracement level crossing at 893.70.
May silver closed higher on Monday due to short covering as it consolidated some of last week's decline but remains below the
38% retracement level of the August-March rally crossing at 17.731. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower
opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If
May extends last week's decline, the 50% retracement level crossing at 16.585 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-
day moving average crossing at 19.614 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 38%
retracement crossing at 17.731 then the 25% retracement level crossing at 19.015. First support is last Thursday's low crossing
at 16.725 then the 50% retracement level crossing at 16.585.
May copper closed higher on Monday and above the 38% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 358.50 as
it consolidated some of last week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday.
Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above
the 20-day moving average crossing at 379.12 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If May extends last week's
decline, the 50% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 344.85 is the next downside target. First resistance
is the 10-day moving average crossing at 370.97. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 379.12. First
support is last Thursday's low crossing at 346.10. Second support is the 50% retracement level crossing at 358.50.
May crude oil closed lower on Monday as it extends last week's decline below the 20-day moving average crossing at 103.71.
The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling
that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends last week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 98.33 is
the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing 105.82 would confirm that a short-term low has
been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 103.71. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average
crossing at 105.82. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 98.65. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 98.33.
May Henry natural gas closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of last week's decline. The high-range close sets the
stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral hinting that a short-term low might
be in or is near. If April extends last week's decline, the 50% retracement level of December-March rally crossing at 8.732 is
the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.577 then the 10-day moving average
crossing at 9.683. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 8.750. Second support is the 50% retracement level of this
year's rally crossing at 8.732.
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on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-
term. If April extends last week's decline, the 38% retracement level crossing at 893.70 is the next downside target. Closes
above the 20-day moving average crossing at 968.40 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is
the 10-day moving average crossing at 965.40. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 968.40. First
support is last Thursday's low crossing at 904.70. Second support is the 38% retracement level crossing at 893.70.
May silver closed higher on Monday due to short covering as it consolidated some of last week's decline but remains below the
38% retracement level of the August-March rally crossing at 17.731. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower
opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If
May extends last week's decline, the 50% retracement level crossing at 16.585 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-
day moving average crossing at 19.614 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 38%
retracement crossing at 17.731 then the 25% retracement level crossing at 19.015. First support is last Thursday's low crossing
at 16.725 then the 50% retracement level crossing at 16.585.
May copper closed higher on Monday and above the 38% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 358.50 as
it consolidated some of last week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday.
Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above
the 20-day moving average crossing at 379.12 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If May extends last week's
decline, the 50% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 344.85 is the next downside target. First resistance
is the 10-day moving average crossing at 370.97. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 379.12. First
support is last Thursday's low crossing at 346.10. Second support is the 50% retracement level crossing at 358.50.
May crude oil closed lower on Monday as it extends last week's decline below the 20-day moving average crossing at 103.71.
The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling
that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends last week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 98.33 is
the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing 105.82 would confirm that a short-term low has
been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 103.71. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average
crossing at 105.82. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 98.65. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 98.33.
May Henry natural gas closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of last week's decline. The high-range close sets the
stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral hinting that a short-term low might
be in or is near. If April extends last week's decline, the 50% retracement level of December-March rally crossing at 8.732 is
the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.577 then the 10-day moving average
crossing at 9.683. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 8.750. Second support is the 50% retracement level of this
year's rally crossing at 8.732.
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Energy intraday
*
The oil market fluctuated Monday, searching for direction without much in the way of solid news to drive the market higher or lower. Retail gas prices, meanwhile, fell further from recent records, while diesel prices dipped slightly.
* Oil futures traded in a narrow range as a tug of war took place between speculators who have sold as the dollar gained strength, and investors who bought on a view that the economy -- and demand for oil and gasoline -- may not be as weak as initially thought.
*
Oil Price will range between $80 and $110 per barrel for the rest of 2008, Opec President Chakib Khelil said on yesterday. Khelil, who is also Algerian energy and mines minister, told Algerian television OPEC was under “big pressures” from consuming nations who liked to portray the group as responsible for high oil prices, when in fact the market was responding to US economic problems and the falling dollar.
*
Saudi Arabia Reaffirms Pledge to Meet Global Crude Oil Demand, The Supreme Council of Petroleum and Mineral Affairs, chaired by King Abdullah, agreed to work with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and non-OPEC countries to ensure oil market stability and ``prevent the effects of harmful speculation,'' the government body said in a statement posted late yesterday on the Web site of the state news agency
*
Crude oil fell for a third day in New York on signs that the slowing U.S. economy will cut fuel demand in the world's biggest energy consuming country. Oil is likely to slide further this spring as slow in economic growth encourages traders to exit commodity markets,
* South Korea's crude oil imports fell 2.4 percent in February as refiners reduced processing because of lower profit from turning each barrel of crude into fuels. The world's fifth-biggest crude oil buyer imported 68 million barrels last month compared with 69.7 million barrels a year earlier, according to data e-mailed by state-run Korea National Oil Corp. on March 21.
* There is fundamental support for natural gas to trade at these prices because of the storage and supply situation and its advanced on speculation colder temperatures will boost demand for the fuel for heating and reduced output from nuclear power plants will increase its use for power generation.
MCX Crude Oil April (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil April: Sell at 4100 Target 4060 and 4000 Stop loss at 4145
MCX Natural gas April (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations- MCX Natural Gas April: Sell at 370 Target 367 and 362 Stop loss 374
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The oil market fluctuated Monday, searching for direction without much in the way of solid news to drive the market higher or lower. Retail gas prices, meanwhile, fell further from recent records, while diesel prices dipped slightly.
* Oil futures traded in a narrow range as a tug of war took place between speculators who have sold as the dollar gained strength, and investors who bought on a view that the economy -- and demand for oil and gasoline -- may not be as weak as initially thought.
*
Oil Price will range between $80 and $110 per barrel for the rest of 2008, Opec President Chakib Khelil said on yesterday. Khelil, who is also Algerian energy and mines minister, told Algerian television OPEC was under “big pressures” from consuming nations who liked to portray the group as responsible for high oil prices, when in fact the market was responding to US economic problems and the falling dollar.
*
Saudi Arabia Reaffirms Pledge to Meet Global Crude Oil Demand, The Supreme Council of Petroleum and Mineral Affairs, chaired by King Abdullah, agreed to work with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and non-OPEC countries to ensure oil market stability and ``prevent the effects of harmful speculation,'' the government body said in a statement posted late yesterday on the Web site of the state news agency
*
Crude oil fell for a third day in New York on signs that the slowing U.S. economy will cut fuel demand in the world's biggest energy consuming country. Oil is likely to slide further this spring as slow in economic growth encourages traders to exit commodity markets,
* South Korea's crude oil imports fell 2.4 percent in February as refiners reduced processing because of lower profit from turning each barrel of crude into fuels. The world's fifth-biggest crude oil buyer imported 68 million barrels last month compared with 69.7 million barrels a year earlier, according to data e-mailed by state-run Korea National Oil Corp. on March 21.
* There is fundamental support for natural gas to trade at these prices because of the storage and supply situation and its advanced on speculation colder temperatures will boost demand for the fuel for heating and reduced output from nuclear power plants will increase its use for power generation.
MCX Crude Oil April (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil April: Sell at 4100 Target 4060 and 4000 Stop loss at 4145
MCX Natural gas April (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations- MCX Natural Gas April: Sell at 370 Target 367 and 362 Stop loss 374
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Basemetals intraday
§ US Feb existing home sales up 2.9 pct to 5.03 mln rate vs 4.85 mln expected and Sales of previously owned homes in the US rose in February after six straight months of declines, due in part to the largest ever year-over-year decline in home prices, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) said yesterday
*
Copper led declines on the Shanghai Futures Exchange on speculation a rally in the dollar and
rebounding equities will curb demand for alternative investments
*
Peruvian Copper Output Will Double by 2013, Peru is on track to produce 2.4 million tons of copper annually by 2013, from the current production rate of 1.2 million tons, the Lima-based daily said, citing Energy & Mines Minister Juan Valdivia.
*
Chile's gross domestic product expanded 4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2007, less than the
4.21 percent median estimate of 12 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg and GDP expanded 5.1 percent in 2007
*
Chile's National Mining Co. is accumulating stockpiles of unfinished copper that it is unable
to process at its smelters, Santiago newspaper La Tercera said. The company also may sell some material to bigger state-owned copper company Codelco for processing, the newspaper said
*
China – Feb month: Copper imports fall by 8.3% yr/yr, Nickel imports rise 7.79%to 13,042tones, Aluminium exports fall by 19% to 39,378 tones and Zinc imports fall by 23%.
*
Zinc prices also declined sharply in a broad-based metals sell-off as a monthly report by the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed a 26,600 tonne surplus in zinc for January 2008. Refined output for zinc in January 2008 stands at 1,004,900 tonnes while consumption was at 978,300 tonnes. The surplus in January 2008 was a decrease from the surplus of 43,800 tonnes seen in December 2007 but higher when compared to the 26,000 tonnes seen in January 2007.
*
National Aluminium Co., India's biggest aluminium maker, said it plans to shut one of its three production lines for maintenance work that may last a month. National Aluminium produces 1.58 million metric tons of the aluminium-making material annually
MCX Copper April (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations - MCX Copper April: Sell at 325 Target 319 and 315 Stop loss 328.50
MCX Zinc March (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations -MCX Zinc March: Sell at 94.50 Target 91 and 89 Stop loss at 96
MCX Nickel March (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations: MCX Nickel March: Sell at 1165 Target 1148 and 1130 Stop loss at 1180
MCX Lead Feb (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations: MCX Lead March: Sell at 112.50 Target 100.30 and 99.10 Stop loss 113.70
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*
Copper led declines on the Shanghai Futures Exchange on speculation a rally in the dollar and
rebounding equities will curb demand for alternative investments
*
Peruvian Copper Output Will Double by 2013, Peru is on track to produce 2.4 million tons of copper annually by 2013, from the current production rate of 1.2 million tons, the Lima-based daily said, citing Energy & Mines Minister Juan Valdivia.
*
Chile's gross domestic product expanded 4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2007, less than the
4.21 percent median estimate of 12 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg and GDP expanded 5.1 percent in 2007
*
Chile's National Mining Co. is accumulating stockpiles of unfinished copper that it is unable
to process at its smelters, Santiago newspaper La Tercera said. The company also may sell some material to bigger state-owned copper company Codelco for processing, the newspaper said
*
China – Feb month: Copper imports fall by 8.3% yr/yr, Nickel imports rise 7.79%to 13,042tones, Aluminium exports fall by 19% to 39,378 tones and Zinc imports fall by 23%.
*
Zinc prices also declined sharply in a broad-based metals sell-off as a monthly report by the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed a 26,600 tonne surplus in zinc for January 2008. Refined output for zinc in January 2008 stands at 1,004,900 tonnes while consumption was at 978,300 tonnes. The surplus in January 2008 was a decrease from the surplus of 43,800 tonnes seen in December 2007 but higher when compared to the 26,000 tonnes seen in January 2007.
*
National Aluminium Co., India's biggest aluminium maker, said it plans to shut one of its three production lines for maintenance work that may last a month. National Aluminium produces 1.58 million metric tons of the aluminium-making material annually
MCX Copper April (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations - MCX Copper April: Sell at 325 Target 319 and 315 Stop loss 328.50
MCX Zinc March (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations -MCX Zinc March: Sell at 94.50 Target 91 and 89 Stop loss at 96
MCX Nickel March (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations: MCX Nickel March: Sell at 1165 Target 1148 and 1130 Stop loss at 1180
MCX Lead Feb (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations: MCX Lead March: Sell at 112.50 Target 100.30 and 99.10 Stop loss 113.70
MCXARUN
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