MCX Crude oil Feb rose to high of Rs. 3608 per barrel and traded with reasonable gains following trend from Gold and equity market. MCX Natural gas was trading with loss of Rs.3 at Rs. 311.50
· Crude oil rose for a fourth day on speculation the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates to spur economic growth in the world's largest energy user and as OPEC prepares to keep output on hold.
· The threat of tumbling stock and home values and a weakening labor market will spur the Fed to cut its benchmark rate by half a percentage point tomorrow, traders and economists forecast. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is unlikely to change its output when it meets Feb. 1 in Vienna
· Some OPEC members, including Iran's Governor Hossein Kazempour Ardebili, have said the group is unlikely to raise output because there are sufficient supplies in the market and signs of a global economic slowdown mean demand may fall.
· U.S. economic growth probably slowed to 1.2 percent in the fourth quarter as high fuel costs and rising unemployment limited consumer spending, according to a survey of economists. Asian stocks fell for the first time in four days after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said the Japanese economy has probably fallen into a recession.
· While temperatures are expected to be warm earlier this week, forecasts released Friday called for colder weather during the 6-to 10-day period in the U.S. Northeast and Midwest which could give a boost to heating demand. According to forecast by AccuWeather.com, as reported by Dow Jones newswires, temperatures are expected to drop into the single digits in New York this weekend and remain in the teens and 20s Fahrenheit during the first week of February.
MCX Crude Oil Feb (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Crude Oil Feb: Buy at 3560-3570 for the target of 3660 and 3695 with stop loss at 3520
MCX Natural gas Feb (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are still bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Natural Gas Feb:
sell @ 313/314 stoploss 318 tgt-310-307-304
MCXARUN
9994500540
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
Bullion
Gold rose to record highs in London, Comex and MCX as power cuts continued in South Africa, affecting the mine production in the world's second-biggest miner of the metal. Silver jumped to the highest since 1980.
· MCX Gold April traded towards the high of Rs. 11861 per 10 grams gave a small intra day correction towards days low of Rs. 11721 per 10 grams, but finally closed with gains. Similarly MCX Silver March registered days high at Rs. 21599 per kg and corrected towards days low of Rs. 21254 closed with gains.
· International spot gold traded positive to register day’s high at $933.10 per toz and silver at $16.82 per toz.
· Anglo Platinum Ltd. and Gold Fields Ltd. shut operations in South Africa for a fifth day because of a shortfall in power supply. The country produces more than a 10th of the world's gold and over three-quarters of its platinum. Gold also climbed on speculation the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates tomorrow, pushing the dollar lower and boosting gold's appeal as an alternative to U.S. assets.
· Interest-rate futures indicate a 74 percent chance the Fed will reduce its benchmark interest rate to 3 percent, compared with 86 percent yesterday, after a report showed orders for durable goods rose last month. The Fed last week cut the rate to 3.5 percent in an emergency move to head off a recession.
· Gold production inIndia in the first nine months of this financial year totalled 9.369 tons, up from 9.058 tons from a year earlier, according to the latest government data.
· Apparent long liquidation pared the fund's net long position in Comex gold futures and options combined as of Tuesday, according to the latest CFTC data. The large non-commercial accounts were net long 217,961, down from 224,528 the prior period.
Indian Bullion Spot Market
Precious metals received a lift in spot markets on upbeat equity markets, supply disruptions at South African mines due to power failure as well as expectations of yet another interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
· In Mumbai markets, gold (995) and gold (999) advanced by Rs135 to finish at Rs11,845/10gm and Rs.11,895/10g. Arrivals in gold were at 150 kilos. Silver (.999) closed at Rs.20,880/kg, rising by Rs.200. Arrivals were in silver were at 50 kilos.
· Chennai gold (995) escalated by Rs175 to finish at Rs11,875/10gm and gold (999) by Rs125 to close at Rs11,925/10gm respectively whereas Silver (.999) closed at Rs20,750/kg, rising by Rs300.
· Jaipur gold standard closed at Rs.12,000/10gm, advancing by Rs.200 whereas Silver (.999) closed at Rs21,000/kg, rising by Rs100.
· Ahmedabad gold (995) rose by Rs150 to close at Rs.11,850/10gm and gold (999) by Rs150 to close at Rs11,900/10gm whereas Silver (.999) escalated by Rs250 to close at Rs21,150/kg.
· In Delhi bullion markets, gold (995) increased by Rs80 to close at Rs.11,830/10gm and gold (999) by Rs90 to close at Rs.11,890/10gm whereas Silver (.999) zoomed up by Rs210 to end at Rs.20,750/kg.
MCX Gold Apr (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish now and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Gold April: Buy only above 11760-750 for the target of 11890 and 11940 with stop loss at 11715
MCX Silver Mar (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are still bullish now and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Silver March: Buy at 21380-400 for the target of 21560 and 21670 with stop loss at 21180
MCXARUN
9994500540
· MCX Gold April traded towards the high of Rs. 11861 per 10 grams gave a small intra day correction towards days low of Rs. 11721 per 10 grams, but finally closed with gains. Similarly MCX Silver March registered days high at Rs. 21599 per kg and corrected towards days low of Rs. 21254 closed with gains.
· International spot gold traded positive to register day’s high at $933.10 per toz and silver at $16.82 per toz.
· Anglo Platinum Ltd. and Gold Fields Ltd. shut operations in South Africa for a fifth day because of a shortfall in power supply. The country produces more than a 10th of the world's gold and over three-quarters of its platinum. Gold also climbed on speculation the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates tomorrow, pushing the dollar lower and boosting gold's appeal as an alternative to U.S. assets.
· Interest-rate futures indicate a 74 percent chance the Fed will reduce its benchmark interest rate to 3 percent, compared with 86 percent yesterday, after a report showed orders for durable goods rose last month. The Fed last week cut the rate to 3.5 percent in an emergency move to head off a recession.
· Gold production inIndia in the first nine months of this financial year totalled 9.369 tons, up from 9.058 tons from a year earlier, according to the latest government data.
· Apparent long liquidation pared the fund's net long position in Comex gold futures and options combined as of Tuesday, according to the latest CFTC data. The large non-commercial accounts were net long 217,961, down from 224,528 the prior period.
Indian Bullion Spot Market
Precious metals received a lift in spot markets on upbeat equity markets, supply disruptions at South African mines due to power failure as well as expectations of yet another interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
· In Mumbai markets, gold (995) and gold (999) advanced by Rs135 to finish at Rs11,845/10gm and Rs.11,895/10g. Arrivals in gold were at 150 kilos. Silver (.999) closed at Rs.20,880/kg, rising by Rs.200. Arrivals were in silver were at 50 kilos.
· Chennai gold (995) escalated by Rs175 to finish at Rs11,875/10gm and gold (999) by Rs125 to close at Rs11,925/10gm respectively whereas Silver (.999) closed at Rs20,750/kg, rising by Rs300.
· Jaipur gold standard closed at Rs.12,000/10gm, advancing by Rs.200 whereas Silver (.999) closed at Rs21,000/kg, rising by Rs100.
· Ahmedabad gold (995) rose by Rs150 to close at Rs.11,850/10gm and gold (999) by Rs150 to close at Rs11,900/10gm whereas Silver (.999) escalated by Rs250 to close at Rs21,150/kg.
· In Delhi bullion markets, gold (995) increased by Rs80 to close at Rs.11,830/10gm and gold (999) by Rs90 to close at Rs.11,890/10gm whereas Silver (.999) zoomed up by Rs210 to end at Rs.20,750/kg.
MCX Gold Apr (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish now and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Gold April: Buy only above 11760-750 for the target of 11890 and 11940 with stop loss at 11715
MCX Silver Mar (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are still bullish now and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Silver March: Buy at 21380-400 for the target of 21560 and 21670 with stop loss at 21180
MCXARUN
9994500540
bullion chart
this is MCX gold day chart
click the chart to view large
this is MCX silver day chart
click the chart to view large
MCXARUN
9994500540
click the chart to view large
this is MCX silver day chart
click the chart to view large
MCXARUN
9994500540
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
The IMF has reduced its global growth target for 2008 to 4.1% from 4.9% yesterday. The IMF has lowered China’s 2008 growth forecast to 10% from previously 11.40%. China is the biggest guzzler of base metals. The current base metals prices to a certain extent reflect slowdown in global growth. However if actual results come in lower than expected then expect another phase of hammering by the bears in base metals. Lower global growth in 2008 accompanied by higher prices of essential commodities implies greater investment interest in precious metals and soft commodities and less investment in equities. Gold will continue to rise with very high volatility.
Copper and other base metals shot up on expectations that Fed interest rate cuts will prevent the US economy from slowing down. Base metals have risen partly due to short covering and some long position building ahead of the Fed cut. Expect more gains in base metals today.
Traders prefer to go long in gold, silver and crude oil while they are going short on the US dollar before the Fed meeting. Apart from the 0.25%/0.50% interest rate cut, traders have started betting in the options markets on what will be the Fed funds rate towards the close of the year whether it will be 2.25% or 1.25%. After this week most of the interest rate sensitive risk will be over. It will be another volatile day, but gold and silver will find support at lower levels.
COPPER -- MARCH FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $327.0
Only a break of $338 will result in $347 and $360 in the short term. Initial support at $328.60
NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $89.24
A break of $93.20 will result in $95 and more. On the lower side as long as $90.20 holds downside will be limited.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Copper and other base metals shot up on expectations that Fed interest rate cuts will prevent the US economy from slowing down. Base metals have risen partly due to short covering and some long position building ahead of the Fed cut. Expect more gains in base metals today.
Traders prefer to go long in gold, silver and crude oil while they are going short on the US dollar before the Fed meeting. Apart from the 0.25%/0.50% interest rate cut, traders have started betting in the options markets on what will be the Fed funds rate towards the close of the year whether it will be 2.25% or 1.25%. After this week most of the interest rate sensitive risk will be over. It will be another volatile day, but gold and silver will find support at lower levels.
COPPER -- MARCH FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $327.0
Only a break of $338 will result in $347 and $360 in the short term. Initial support at $328.60
NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $89.24
A break of $93.20 will result in $95 and more. On the lower side as long as $90.20 holds downside will be limited.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Gold could hit $975/oz, silver $17.90/oz:
Gold prices are forecast to hit a peak of $975/oz in 2008 on positive fundamentals, less central bank selling and stagnating production, according to precious metals and technology group Heraeus, in its Precious Metals - Outlook 2008. Silver prices could climb as high as $17.90/oz in the first half of the year as demand from many industrial applications and investors grows, the report added.
"Investors will most likely continue to diversify their portfolios, and gold will clearly play a role here as an alternate asset-class," Heraeus said, adding that if only the Germans were to allocate 5% of their Eur4.7 trillion ($6.8 trillion) near-cash assets to gold, they would be buying up an equivalent of six years' annual production.
The report forecast bullion to reach a high of $935/oz in the first quarter of 2008 and a year's high of $975/oz, but it predicted gold's peak in 2009 would be only $815/oz. This compares to a high of $848/oz in 2007. Looking at the lows, Heraeus predicts a low of $840/oz in the first quarter of this year, a low of $740/oz in the whole of 2008 and a low of $650/oz in 2009. The low in 2007 was $601/oz, according Heraeus.
Heraeus warned that the "party" could not go on forever and already the second half of 2008 could see things "calming down on gold's front should a recession in the USA firmly set in and as a result the price of oil comes off substantially." It also could not be ruled out that mining companies at some stage might decide on fresh hedging, the report said. "All this could have the gold price dropping down to under $700/oz by 2009," Heraeus said.
Forward contracts as a hedge strategy for industrial end users, at present price levels, cannot be really recommended, Heraeus said. Instead industrial end users should, even in this tendencially upward trend, wait for a pullback, which should then provide a much better buying opportunity, the company added.
"What makes hedging currently additionally unattractive is a relatively high interest-driven premium (contango) in the forward purchase price," Heraeus explained. "Though this would please mining companies (if they find the courage to sell forward), it is an added burden to the industrial buyer." A 2.5-year forward gold purchase, for example, would today cost about $90/oz over the spot price, leading to a final price relatively close to $1,000/oz, Heraeus said.
Silver could reach Q1 high of $16.75/oz
Silver is forecast to rally to $16.75/oz during the first quarter of 2008 before reaching the year's high of $17.90/oz, then decline to a peak of $15/oz in 2009. This compares with a high of $16.21/oz in 2007.
Looking at the lows, Heraeus predicts a low of $14.75/oz in the first quarter of this year, a low of $13.50/oz in the whole of 2008 and silver falling to $11.00/oz in 2009. The low in 2007 was $11.06/oz, according Heraeus.
Heraeus warns that demand from the photographic industry is expected to decline further in 2008 and 2009 and that new production would offer a growing supply of silver available in the market. Silver supply is forecast to grow at 3%/year as a result of higher byproduct output from increased base metals production, the report said.
In addition to the 25% produced by the primary mines, silver is a byproduct, among others, of gold, copper and lead production. Currently annual new silver production is around 20,500 mt, and a further 7,800 mt comes from silver scrap and official reserves, Heraeus said.
On the demand side, silver has enjoyed growth in new applications. "Relatively new applications for silver, though with comparatively low demand volume, but with enormous growth-potential, were in the plasma-screen segment, solar industry, RFID-sector and water-purification processes. All four areas promise an increasing demand for silver in future," Heraeus suggested. The high price of silver has cut back demand for silver from the jewelry and silverware markets, it said, adding: "In 2008 we expect a further decline of around 5% within this segment."
Heraeus said in its report that in view of a longer-term restrained scenario it would not recommend entering into silver price hedging at the current levels. "In comparison to that staggered forward purchases, starting at the $15/oz level, appear to be a more promising strategy," it noted.
Silver's high volatility makes it feasible to consider selling put options, it added. "Though this way the industrial end user does not get any protection against fast rising prices, he can get however a decent price-subvention on his running demand through the premium intake," Heraeus noted.
SOURCE;http://www.platts.com/Metals/highlights/2008/mp_mw_012908.xml
"Investors will most likely continue to diversify their portfolios, and gold will clearly play a role here as an alternate asset-class," Heraeus said, adding that if only the Germans were to allocate 5% of their Eur4.7 trillion ($6.8 trillion) near-cash assets to gold, they would be buying up an equivalent of six years' annual production.
The report forecast bullion to reach a high of $935/oz in the first quarter of 2008 and a year's high of $975/oz, but it predicted gold's peak in 2009 would be only $815/oz. This compares to a high of $848/oz in 2007. Looking at the lows, Heraeus predicts a low of $840/oz in the first quarter of this year, a low of $740/oz in the whole of 2008 and a low of $650/oz in 2009. The low in 2007 was $601/oz, according Heraeus.
Heraeus warned that the "party" could not go on forever and already the second half of 2008 could see things "calming down on gold's front should a recession in the USA firmly set in and as a result the price of oil comes off substantially." It also could not be ruled out that mining companies at some stage might decide on fresh hedging, the report said. "All this could have the gold price dropping down to under $700/oz by 2009," Heraeus said.
Forward contracts as a hedge strategy for industrial end users, at present price levels, cannot be really recommended, Heraeus said. Instead industrial end users should, even in this tendencially upward trend, wait for a pullback, which should then provide a much better buying opportunity, the company added.
"What makes hedging currently additionally unattractive is a relatively high interest-driven premium (contango) in the forward purchase price," Heraeus explained. "Though this would please mining companies (if they find the courage to sell forward), it is an added burden to the industrial buyer." A 2.5-year forward gold purchase, for example, would today cost about $90/oz over the spot price, leading to a final price relatively close to $1,000/oz, Heraeus said.
Silver could reach Q1 high of $16.75/oz
Silver is forecast to rally to $16.75/oz during the first quarter of 2008 before reaching the year's high of $17.90/oz, then decline to a peak of $15/oz in 2009. This compares with a high of $16.21/oz in 2007.
Looking at the lows, Heraeus predicts a low of $14.75/oz in the first quarter of this year, a low of $13.50/oz in the whole of 2008 and silver falling to $11.00/oz in 2009. The low in 2007 was $11.06/oz, according Heraeus.
Heraeus warns that demand from the photographic industry is expected to decline further in 2008 and 2009 and that new production would offer a growing supply of silver available in the market. Silver supply is forecast to grow at 3%/year as a result of higher byproduct output from increased base metals production, the report said.
In addition to the 25% produced by the primary mines, silver is a byproduct, among others, of gold, copper and lead production. Currently annual new silver production is around 20,500 mt, and a further 7,800 mt comes from silver scrap and official reserves, Heraeus said.
On the demand side, silver has enjoyed growth in new applications. "Relatively new applications for silver, though with comparatively low demand volume, but with enormous growth-potential, were in the plasma-screen segment, solar industry, RFID-sector and water-purification processes. All four areas promise an increasing demand for silver in future," Heraeus suggested. The high price of silver has cut back demand for silver from the jewelry and silverware markets, it said, adding: "In 2008 we expect a further decline of around 5% within this segment."
Heraeus said in its report that in view of a longer-term restrained scenario it would not recommend entering into silver price hedging at the current levels. "In comparison to that staggered forward purchases, starting at the $15/oz level, appear to be a more promising strategy," it noted.
Silver's high volatility makes it feasible to consider selling put options, it added. "Though this way the industrial end user does not get any protection against fast rising prices, he can get however a decent price-subvention on his running demand through the premium intake," Heraeus noted.
SOURCE;http://www.platts.com/Metals/highlights/2008/mp_mw_012908.xml
outlook
METALS: April gold futures closed down $2.00 at $930.80
today. Prices closed near mid-range after hitting another
fresh contract and all-time high today. Profit taking was
featured and the bulls are still technically very strong
amid no strong clues that a market top is close at hand.
Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close
above major psychological resistance at $1,000.00.
March silver futures closed up 5.0 cents at $16.80 an ounce
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit
a fresh contract high and a fresh 28-year high. Silver
bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage.
March N.Y. copper closed up 1,095 points at 329.90 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session high on more short
covering. However, U.S. economic recession worries will
limit the upside in copper. Bulls' next upside objective is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
January high of 337.85 cents.
ENERGIES: March crude oil closed up $0.65 at $91.64 a
barrel today. Prices closed near the session high again
today. Bulls are regaining fresh upside technical momentum.
The next downside price objective for the bears is
producing a close below solid technical support at $89.00 a
barrel.
March natural gas closed down 9.7 cents at $7.945 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and did score a bearish
"outside day" down on the daily bar chart. Bears have the
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $8.20.
MCXARUN
9994500540
today. Prices closed near mid-range after hitting another
fresh contract and all-time high today. Profit taking was
featured and the bulls are still technically very strong
amid no strong clues that a market top is close at hand.
Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close
above major psychological resistance at $1,000.00.
March silver futures closed up 5.0 cents at $16.80 an ounce
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit
a fresh contract high and a fresh 28-year high. Silver
bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage.
March N.Y. copper closed up 1,095 points at 329.90 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session high on more short
covering. However, U.S. economic recession worries will
limit the upside in copper. Bulls' next upside objective is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
January high of 337.85 cents.
ENERGIES: March crude oil closed up $0.65 at $91.64 a
barrel today. Prices closed near the session high again
today. Bulls are regaining fresh upside technical momentum.
The next downside price objective for the bears is
producing a close below solid technical support at $89.00 a
barrel.
March natural gas closed down 9.7 cents at $7.945 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and did score a bearish
"outside day" down on the daily bar chart. Bears have the
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $8.20.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
long view
GOLD
LIKELY TO TEST 11725-800 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 10650(FEB)
LEAD
LIKELY TO 90/88 UPTO 85 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 96 & 95, WHILE CLOSE ABV 109
SOME UPTREND AGAIN(JAN)
MCXARUN
9994500540
LIKELY TO TEST 11725-800 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 10650(FEB)
LEAD
LIKELY TO 90/88 UPTO 85 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 96 & 95, WHILE CLOSE ABV 109
SOME UPTREND AGAIN(JAN)
MCXARUN
9994500540
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
Traders are going long on gold, silver and energy ahead of the Fed meeting and going short on the US dollar. US housing numbers further added to US dollar woes. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates between 0.25% and 0.50%. The markets will be looking forward to the statement and whether Fed explicitly says that it will cut interest rates in March. It is all about interest rates and growth for the Fed and inflation has been put in the backburner. Gold and silver will remain firm until the outcome of the Fed meeting tomorrow. I will be hesitant to go short in copper as LME stocks continue to slide despite expectations of a slowdown in demand.
Gold will also be supported by greater Chinese demand ahead of the Chinese New year on 7th February. Chinese retail investors have started investing in physical gold in a big way and that Chinese demand will have a greater effect on gold prices over the coming years than gold demand from India.
Momentum in all the metals is bullish and it is better to trade with the momentum and sell only when the momentum shows signs of fading. Silver should finally break out and should rise more than gold. The technical picture of gold is overbought while that of silver and copper is neutral to bullish. As and when profit taking comes up gold, silver, copper and crude oil will fall.
GOLD -- FEBRURAY FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT:$922.0
Gold is nearing our price target of $934 and $945. For the day as long as gold holds $915.10 the downside will be limited. Gold has to fall below $915.10 for losses.
SILVER -- MARCH FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT $1676
$1670 price target achieved. Silver targets $1712, $1740 if $1648 and $1628 holds.
MCXARUN
999450050
Gold will also be supported by greater Chinese demand ahead of the Chinese New year on 7th February. Chinese retail investors have started investing in physical gold in a big way and that Chinese demand will have a greater effect on gold prices over the coming years than gold demand from India.
Momentum in all the metals is bullish and it is better to trade with the momentum and sell only when the momentum shows signs of fading. Silver should finally break out and should rise more than gold. The technical picture of gold is overbought while that of silver and copper is neutral to bullish. As and when profit taking comes up gold, silver, copper and crude oil will fall.
GOLD -- FEBRURAY FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT:$922.0
Gold is nearing our price target of $934 and $945. For the day as long as gold holds $915.10 the downside will be limited. Gold has to fall below $915.10 for losses.
SILVER -- MARCH FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT $1676
$1670 price target achieved. Silver targets $1712, $1740 if $1648 and $1628 holds.
MCXARUN
999450050
copper trend indicater
Copper:
Copper trade on ACCESS is showing weaker prices in recent activity reversing the firmer tone seen during the prior session. Trend indicators have turned from a bullish to a bearish bias and the overall strength of the trend is strong, as indicated by the ADX. Momentum readings are also in bearish territory.
TREND INDICATORS:
Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices cross below this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session indicating further weakness. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bearish bias.
Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices cross below this moving average. However, despite prices trading below the moving average line, the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session. If prices trade above the moving average then the trend will be clearly established as up. However, this weakness in the price will need to be watched. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a weak bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is rising, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. As the ADX has turned higher also this indicates a strengthening in the current upward trend and further gains are possible from here.
MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bearish territory.
RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 47.56). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 47.56 the market is somewhat oversold. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of strength from this indicator before getting too bullish here.
VOLATILITY INDICATORS:
Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating oversold prices. Volatility also appears to be decreasing, as evidenced by a smaller distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions. Despite this oversold condition the market may become more oversold before turning higher. As a result, the market will look for additional strength in prices before turning bullish on this indicator.
RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:
3.3785 - Highest High in last 50-Days
3.3766 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
3.3600 - Highest High in last 10-Days
3.3561 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
3.2922 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
3.2730 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
3.1940 - High
3.1769 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
3.1698 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
3.1667 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
3.1205 - Last Price
3.1205 - Low
3.1067 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
3.0998 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
3.0235 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
3.0120 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
2.8530 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
MCXARUN
9994500540
Copper trade on ACCESS is showing weaker prices in recent activity reversing the firmer tone seen during the prior session. Trend indicators have turned from a bullish to a bearish bias and the overall strength of the trend is strong, as indicated by the ADX. Momentum readings are also in bearish territory.
TREND INDICATORS:
Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices cross below this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session indicating further weakness. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bearish bias.
Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices cross below this moving average. However, despite prices trading below the moving average line, the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session. If prices trade above the moving average then the trend will be clearly established as up. However, this weakness in the price will need to be watched. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a weak bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is rising, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. As the ADX has turned higher also this indicates a strengthening in the current upward trend and further gains are possible from here.
MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bearish territory.
RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 47.56). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 47.56 the market is somewhat oversold. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of strength from this indicator before getting too bullish here.
VOLATILITY INDICATORS:
Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating oversold prices. Volatility also appears to be decreasing, as evidenced by a smaller distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions. Despite this oversold condition the market may become more oversold before turning higher. As a result, the market will look for additional strength in prices before turning bullish on this indicator.
RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:
3.3785 - Highest High in last 50-Days
3.3766 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
3.3600 - Highest High in last 10-Days
3.3561 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
3.2922 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
3.2730 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
3.1940 - High
3.1769 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
3.1698 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
3.1667 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
3.1205 - Last Price
3.1205 - Low
3.1067 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
3.0998 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
3.0235 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
3.0120 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
2.8530 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
MCXARUN
9994500540
Energy Futures
Crude Oil:
Front month crude oil is weaker in ACCESS trade this morning reversing the firmer tone seen during the prior session. Trend indicators are indicating a bearish market and the overall strength of the trend is strong, as indicated by the ADX. Momentum readings are also bearish. However, the recent upturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term rally over the next few days and should be watched.
TREND INDICATORS:
Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session indicating further weakness. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bearish bias.
Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session indicating further weakness. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bearish bias.
Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session indicating further weakness. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bearish bias.
ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is rising, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is down. As the ADX is rising this indicates that the current trend is strong and should remain intact. Look for the current trend to continue.
MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bearish territory. However, the recent upturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term rally over the next few days.
RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 42.14). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 42.14 the market is somewhat oversold. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of strength from this indicator before getting too bullish here.
VOLATILITY INDICATORS:
Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating oversold prices. Volatility also appears to be increasing, as evidenced by a larger distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions. Despite this oversold condition the market may become more oversold before turning higher. As a result, the market will look for additional strength in prices before turning bullish on this indicator.
RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:
100.39 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
100.09 - Highest High in last 50-Days
96.79 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
94.43 - Highest High in last 10-Days
93.40 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
92.80 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
90.71 - High
90.18 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
89.60 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
89.52 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
89.28 - Last Price
89.18 - Low
89.14 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
86.01 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
85.42 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
85.42 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
79.12 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
Natural Gas:
Natural Gas contracts are higher this morning extending the prior sessions gains. Trend indicators are indicating a bullish market. However the overall strength of the trend, as indicated by the ADX, is weak and should be watched as a result.
TREND INDICATORS:
Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session indicating further weakness. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bearish bias.
Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is falling, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. However, the weak ADX indicates that the current trend is deteriorating and may possibly reverse. Look for choppiness ahead.
MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bearish territory. However, the recent upturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term rally over the next few days.
RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 53.47). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 53.47 the market is somewhat overbought. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of weakness from this indicator before getting too bearish here.
VOLATILITY INDICATORS:
Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating oversold prices. Volatility also appears to be decreasing, as evidenced by a smaller distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions.
RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:
8.480 - Highest High in last 50-Days
8.415 - Highest High in last 10-Days
8.384 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
8.158 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
7.955 - High
7.902 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
7.874 - Last Price
7.874 - Low
7.832 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
7.789 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
7.706 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
7.577 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
7.570 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
7.480 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
7.358 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
7.171 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
6.914 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
MCXARUN
9994500540
Front month crude oil is weaker in ACCESS trade this morning reversing the firmer tone seen during the prior session. Trend indicators are indicating a bearish market and the overall strength of the trend is strong, as indicated by the ADX. Momentum readings are also bearish. However, the recent upturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term rally over the next few days and should be watched.
TREND INDICATORS:
Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session indicating further weakness. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bearish bias.
Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session indicating further weakness. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bearish bias.
Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session indicating further weakness. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bearish bias.
ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is rising, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is down. As the ADX is rising this indicates that the current trend is strong and should remain intact. Look for the current trend to continue.
MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bearish territory. However, the recent upturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term rally over the next few days.
RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 42.14). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 42.14 the market is somewhat oversold. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of strength from this indicator before getting too bullish here.
VOLATILITY INDICATORS:
Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating oversold prices. Volatility also appears to be increasing, as evidenced by a larger distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions. Despite this oversold condition the market may become more oversold before turning higher. As a result, the market will look for additional strength in prices before turning bullish on this indicator.
RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:
100.39 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
100.09 - Highest High in last 50-Days
96.79 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
94.43 - Highest High in last 10-Days
93.40 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
92.80 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
90.71 - High
90.18 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
89.60 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
89.52 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
89.28 - Last Price
89.18 - Low
89.14 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
86.01 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
85.42 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
85.42 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
79.12 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
Natural Gas:
Natural Gas contracts are higher this morning extending the prior sessions gains. Trend indicators are indicating a bullish market. However the overall strength of the trend, as indicated by the ADX, is weak and should be watched as a result.
TREND INDICATORS:
Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session indicating further weakness. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bearish bias.
Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is falling, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. However, the weak ADX indicates that the current trend is deteriorating and may possibly reverse. Look for choppiness ahead.
MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bearish territory. However, the recent upturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term rally over the next few days.
RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 53.47). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 53.47 the market is somewhat overbought. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of weakness from this indicator before getting too bearish here.
VOLATILITY INDICATORS:
Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating oversold prices. Volatility also appears to be decreasing, as evidenced by a smaller distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions.
RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:
8.480 - Highest High in last 50-Days
8.415 - Highest High in last 10-Days
8.384 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
8.158 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
7.955 - High
7.902 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
7.874 - Last Price
7.874 - Low
7.832 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
7.789 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
7.706 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
7.577 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
7.570 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
7.480 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
7.358 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
7.171 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
6.914 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
MCXARUN
9994500540
Precious Metals
COMEX Gold:
Gold trading is higher in ACCESS trade this morning extending the prior sessions gains. Trend indicators are indicating a bullish market and the overall strength of the trend is strong, as indicated by the ADX. Momentum readings are also in bullish territory. Also, the market just made a 50-Day new high here, indicating further strength. Look for more new highs.
TREND INDICATORS:
Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is rising, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. As the ADX is rising it indicates that the current trend is strong and should remain intact. Look for the current trend to continue.
MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory. Also, the market just made a 50-Day new high here, indicating further strength. Look for more new highs.
RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 69.84). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 69.84 the market is somewhat overbought, but given the 50-Day new high here, greater overbought levels are likely.
VOLATILITY INDICATORS:
Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Despite this overbought condition the market may become more overbought before turning lower. Also, given that we posted a 50-Day new high, the chance for further bullish momentum is higher. As a result, the market will look for additional weakening in prices before turning bearish on this indicator.
RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:
927.80 - High
927.80 - Highest High in last 50-Days
927.80 - Highest High in last 10-Days
926.53 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
924.40 - Last Price
917.07 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
917.00 - Low
905.71 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
894.64 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
873.35 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
864.08 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
855.00 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
843.26 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
839.30 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
800.77 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
773.40 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
736.40 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
COMEX Silver:
Silver futures are higher this morning extending the prior sessions gains. Trend indicators are indicating a bullish market. However the overall strength of the trend, as indicated by the ADX, is weak and should be watched as a result. However the MACD has issued a bullish signal, suggesting that mometum may be swinging back to the upside.
TREND INDICATORS:
Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is falling, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. However, the weak ADX indicates that the current trend is deteriorating and may possibly reverse. Look for choppiness ahead.
MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: MACD has issued a bullish signal, as the signal line has crossed above the True MACD. With the current long term trend, based on a 50 day simple moving average, to the upside, this suggests that prices will continue to rise for a time. Furthermore, the market just put in a 50-Day new high. Look for the upward trend to continue.
RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 64.20). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 64.20 the market is somewhat overbought, but given the 50-Day new high here, greater overbought levels are likely.
VOLATILITY INDICATORS:
Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Volatility also appears to be decreasing, as evidenced by a smaller distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions. Despite this overbought condition the market may become more overbought before turning lower. Also, given that we posted a 50-Day new high, the chance for further bullish momentum is higher. As a result, the market will look for additional weakening in prices before turning bearish on this indicator.
RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:
16.812 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
16.715 - Highest High in last 50-Days
16.655 - Highest High in last 10-Days
16.655 - High
16.490 - Last Price
16.421 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
16.415 - Low
16.371 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
16.141 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
15.692 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
15.488 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
15.255 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
15.083 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
15.047 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
14.465 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
13.740 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
13.737 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
MCXARUN
9994500540
Gold trading is higher in ACCESS trade this morning extending the prior sessions gains. Trend indicators are indicating a bullish market and the overall strength of the trend is strong, as indicated by the ADX. Momentum readings are also in bullish territory. Also, the market just made a 50-Day new high here, indicating further strength. Look for more new highs.
TREND INDICATORS:
Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is rising, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. As the ADX is rising it indicates that the current trend is strong and should remain intact. Look for the current trend to continue.
MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory. Also, the market just made a 50-Day new high here, indicating further strength. Look for more new highs.
RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 69.84). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 69.84 the market is somewhat overbought, but given the 50-Day new high here, greater overbought levels are likely.
VOLATILITY INDICATORS:
Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Despite this overbought condition the market may become more overbought before turning lower. Also, given that we posted a 50-Day new high, the chance for further bullish momentum is higher. As a result, the market will look for additional weakening in prices before turning bearish on this indicator.
RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:
927.80 - High
927.80 - Highest High in last 50-Days
927.80 - Highest High in last 10-Days
926.53 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
924.40 - Last Price
917.07 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
917.00 - Low
905.71 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
894.64 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
873.35 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
864.08 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
855.00 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
843.26 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
839.30 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
800.77 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
773.40 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
736.40 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
COMEX Silver:
Silver futures are higher this morning extending the prior sessions gains. Trend indicators are indicating a bullish market. However the overall strength of the trend, as indicated by the ADX, is weak and should be watched as a result. However the MACD has issued a bullish signal, suggesting that mometum may be swinging back to the upside.
TREND INDICATORS:
Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is falling, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. However, the weak ADX indicates that the current trend is deteriorating and may possibly reverse. Look for choppiness ahead.
MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: MACD has issued a bullish signal, as the signal line has crossed above the True MACD. With the current long term trend, based on a 50 day simple moving average, to the upside, this suggests that prices will continue to rise for a time. Furthermore, the market just put in a 50-Day new high. Look for the upward trend to continue.
RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 64.20). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 64.20 the market is somewhat overbought, but given the 50-Day new high here, greater overbought levels are likely.
VOLATILITY INDICATORS:
Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Volatility also appears to be decreasing, as evidenced by a smaller distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions. Despite this overbought condition the market may become more overbought before turning lower. Also, given that we posted a 50-Day new high, the chance for further bullish momentum is higher. As a result, the market will look for additional weakening in prices before turning bearish on this indicator.
RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:
16.812 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
16.715 - Highest High in last 50-Days
16.655 - Highest High in last 10-Days
16.655 - High
16.490 - Last Price
16.421 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
16.415 - Low
16.371 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
16.141 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
15.692 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
15.488 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
15.255 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
15.083 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
15.047 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
14.465 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
13.740 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
13.737 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
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Energy
Crude oil fell from a one-week high in New York and MCX on speculation that an economic slowdown in the U.S. will spread to oil-consuming countries throughout the world. Oil continued lower below the 90 usd mark, tracking stock markets south as a slowing economic outlook continues to weigh on projections for crude demand.
· MCX Crude Oil registered days low at Rs. 3499 per barrel and was trading with major loss. Market registered days high at Rs. 3554 per barrel.
· Some OPEC members, including Iran's Governor Hossein Kazempour Ardebili, have said the group is unlikely to raise output because there are sufficient supplies in the market and signs of a global economic slowdown mean demand may fall.
· U.S. economic growth probably slowed to 1.2 percent in the fourth quarter as high fuel costs and rising unemployment limited consumer spending, according to a survey of economists. Asian stocks fell for the first time in four days after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said the Japanese economy has probably fallen into a recession.
· Natural gas on Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) retreated from intraday high but has continued to trade positive Monday extending the 3.6 percent rise noted in previous two trading sessions following it settled on Friday at the highest price since Jan 19.
· MCX gas edged up for a third day today tracking the sharp gains on international exchange on Friday. The gains were however kept in a check as Nymex gas slipped to the red zone in the electronic trade session today.
· While temperatures are expected to be warm earlier this week, forecasts released Friday called for colder weather during the 6-to 10-day period in the U.S. Northeast and Midwest which could give a boost to heating demand. According to forecast by AccuWeather.com, as reported by Dow Jones newswires, temperatures are expected to drop into the single digits in New York this weekend and remain in the teens and 20s Fahrenheit during the first week of February.
MCX Crude Oil Feb (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Crude Oil Feb: Buy at 3520-3510 for the target of 3595 and 3645 with stop loss at 3480
MCX Natural gas Feb (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Natural Gas Feb: Buy at 306 for the target of 321 and 332 with stop loss at 297
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· MCX Crude Oil registered days low at Rs. 3499 per barrel and was trading with major loss. Market registered days high at Rs. 3554 per barrel.
· Some OPEC members, including Iran's Governor Hossein Kazempour Ardebili, have said the group is unlikely to raise output because there are sufficient supplies in the market and signs of a global economic slowdown mean demand may fall.
· U.S. economic growth probably slowed to 1.2 percent in the fourth quarter as high fuel costs and rising unemployment limited consumer spending, according to a survey of economists. Asian stocks fell for the first time in four days after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said the Japanese economy has probably fallen into a recession.
· Natural gas on Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) retreated from intraday high but has continued to trade positive Monday extending the 3.6 percent rise noted in previous two trading sessions following it settled on Friday at the highest price since Jan 19.
· MCX gas edged up for a third day today tracking the sharp gains on international exchange on Friday. The gains were however kept in a check as Nymex gas slipped to the red zone in the electronic trade session today.
· While temperatures are expected to be warm earlier this week, forecasts released Friday called for colder weather during the 6-to 10-day period in the U.S. Northeast and Midwest which could give a boost to heating demand. According to forecast by AccuWeather.com, as reported by Dow Jones newswires, temperatures are expected to drop into the single digits in New York this weekend and remain in the teens and 20s Fahrenheit during the first week of February.
MCX Crude Oil Feb (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Crude Oil Feb: Buy at 3520-3510 for the target of 3595 and 3645 with stop loss at 3480
MCX Natural gas Feb (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Natural Gas Feb: Buy at 306 for the target of 321 and 332 with stop loss at 297
MCXARUN
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Base metals
MCX Copper traded range bound on Monday between Rs. 273-279 per kg. Market was moderately bearish. Similarly Zinc Feb also traded between 88.95-91 levels.
· MCX Nickel was trading above 1070 per kg with moderate gains.
· Sales of new homes in the US fell faster than expected in December, for the second straight month, leaving home sales down in 2007 more than 40 pct from the year before, a calendar-year decline not seen in 25 years.
· The Commerce Department reported today that last month's new home sales were down 4.7 pct to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 604,000 units, the lowest sales rate since 559,000 in February of 1995. Forecasters had expected only a minor drop to about 645,000 units.
· India's demand for steel is likely to grow eight per cent-nine per cent in 2008, driven by a strong domestic economy with increased spending on infrastructure, real estate, and corporate capital expenditures, Fitch Ratings said in its annual outlook for the country's steel sector Monday.
· The FOMC meeting will be a key event for the market this week, with potential for gains if policy-setters were to trim interest rates by 50 basis points, as many economists expect.
· India's State-run and private companies produced around 923,098 metric tons of aluminium in the first nine months of this financial year, up eight per cent from a year earlier, the latest government data show. The country produced around 515,308 tons of copper during the same period, up 12 per cent from a year earlier, the data show.
· The country also produced 313,802 tons of zinc during the period, up from 277,928 tons a year earlier. It produced 41,258 tons of lead during April-December, up around 29 per cent on year.
MCX Copper Feb (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are still bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Copper Feb: Buy at 276.50 for the target of 281.50 and 283 with stop loss at 274.60
MCX Zinc Feb (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are still bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Zinc Feb: Buy at 89.80- 90.00 for the target of 91.50 and 92.40 with stop loss at 89.10
MCX Nickel Jan (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are still bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Nickel Feb: Sell at 1080-90 for the target of 1040 and 1025 with stop loss at 11105
MCX Lead Dec (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are still bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Lead Jan:
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· MCX Nickel was trading above 1070 per kg with moderate gains.
· Sales of new homes in the US fell faster than expected in December, for the second straight month, leaving home sales down in 2007 more than 40 pct from the year before, a calendar-year decline not seen in 25 years.
· The Commerce Department reported today that last month's new home sales were down 4.7 pct to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 604,000 units, the lowest sales rate since 559,000 in February of 1995. Forecasters had expected only a minor drop to about 645,000 units.
· India's demand for steel is likely to grow eight per cent-nine per cent in 2008, driven by a strong domestic economy with increased spending on infrastructure, real estate, and corporate capital expenditures, Fitch Ratings said in its annual outlook for the country's steel sector Monday.
· The FOMC meeting will be a key event for the market this week, with potential for gains if policy-setters were to trim interest rates by 50 basis points, as many economists expect.
· India's State-run and private companies produced around 923,098 metric tons of aluminium in the first nine months of this financial year, up eight per cent from a year earlier, the latest government data show. The country produced around 515,308 tons of copper during the same period, up 12 per cent from a year earlier, the data show.
· The country also produced 313,802 tons of zinc during the period, up from 277,928 tons a year earlier. It produced 41,258 tons of lead during April-December, up around 29 per cent on year.
MCX Copper Feb (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are still bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Copper Feb: Buy at 276.50 for the target of 281.50 and 283 with stop loss at 274.60
MCX Zinc Feb (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are still bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Zinc Feb: Buy at 89.80- 90.00 for the target of 91.50 and 92.40 with stop loss at 89.10
MCX Nickel Jan (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are still bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Nickel Feb: Sell at 1080-90 for the target of 1040 and 1025 with stop loss at 11105
MCX Lead Dec (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are still bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Lead Jan:
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Bullion
Precious metals hovered close to Friday's record highs Monday as the dollar lost ground to the euro, and with the prospects of a rate cut Wednesday underpinning prices.
· MCX Gold Feb registered days high near 11740 was trading with a gain of Rs. 220 per 10 gram; similarly MCX silver March was trading higher following the yellow metal, registered days high at Rs. 20460 per kg with a gain of Rs. 300 per kg.
· International Spot gold traded at $929 per toz and silver gained almost 122 cent and traded at $16.69 per toz.
· Speculation of another Federal Reserve rate cut at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting Wednesday.
· Production at South African gold and platinum mines remains halted Monday due to electricity cuts, although market participants are expecting some guidance from the national power producer Eskom from Tuesday. In light of reduced South African platinum production, UBS has raised its one- and three-month platinum price forecast to USD1800/oz.
· New home sales were down 4.7% from November's pace and much weaker than expected. For all of 2007, new home sales were down 26%.
· The cost of borrowing gold for one year is 0.4248 percent, compared with an average of 0.26917 percent in the past 12 months, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Rates reflect forecasts about the amount of metal available for borrowing.
Indian Bullion Spot Market
Precious metals almost steady in spot markets. The yellow metal, however was underpinned by expectations of yet another interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Meanwhile the dollar also traded weak against the euro.
· In Mumbai markets, gold (995) finished at Rs11,710/10gm and gold (999) at Rs.11,760/10g. Arrivals in gold were at 150 kilos. Silver (.999) closed at Rs.20,880/kg. Arrivals were in silver were at 250 kilos.
· Chennai gold (995) finished at Rs11,700/10gm and gold (999) at Rs.11,800/10gm respectively whereas Silver (.999) closed at Rs.20,450/kg, rising by Rs.950.
· Jaipur gold standard closed at Rs.11,800/10gm whereas Silver (.999) closed at Rs.20,900/kg.
· Ahmedabad gold (995) closed at Rs.11,700/10gm and gold (999) at Rs11,750/10gm whereas Silver (.999) closed at Rs.20,900/kg.
· In Delhi bullion markets, gold (995) closed at Rs.11,750/10gm and gold (999) closed at Rs.11,800/10gm whereas Silver (.999) ends at Rs.20,540/kg.
MCX Gold Apr (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish now and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Gold April: Sell at 11740-750 for the target of 11690 and 11640 with stop loss at 11775
MCX Silver Mar (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are still bullish now and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Silver March: Sell at 21450-480 for the target of 21300 and 21170 with stop loss at 21560
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· MCX Gold Feb registered days high near 11740 was trading with a gain of Rs. 220 per 10 gram; similarly MCX silver March was trading higher following the yellow metal, registered days high at Rs. 20460 per kg with a gain of Rs. 300 per kg.
· International Spot gold traded at $929 per toz and silver gained almost 122 cent and traded at $16.69 per toz.
· Speculation of another Federal Reserve rate cut at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting Wednesday.
· Production at South African gold and platinum mines remains halted Monday due to electricity cuts, although market participants are expecting some guidance from the national power producer Eskom from Tuesday. In light of reduced South African platinum production, UBS has raised its one- and three-month platinum price forecast to USD1800/oz.
· New home sales were down 4.7% from November's pace and much weaker than expected. For all of 2007, new home sales were down 26%.
· The cost of borrowing gold for one year is 0.4248 percent, compared with an average of 0.26917 percent in the past 12 months, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Rates reflect forecasts about the amount of metal available for borrowing.
Indian Bullion Spot Market
Precious metals almost steady in spot markets. The yellow metal, however was underpinned by expectations of yet another interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Meanwhile the dollar also traded weak against the euro.
· In Mumbai markets, gold (995) finished at Rs11,710/10gm and gold (999) at Rs.11,760/10g. Arrivals in gold were at 150 kilos. Silver (.999) closed at Rs.20,880/kg. Arrivals were in silver were at 250 kilos.
· Chennai gold (995) finished at Rs11,700/10gm and gold (999) at Rs.11,800/10gm respectively whereas Silver (.999) closed at Rs.20,450/kg, rising by Rs.950.
· Jaipur gold standard closed at Rs.11,800/10gm whereas Silver (.999) closed at Rs.20,900/kg.
· Ahmedabad gold (995) closed at Rs.11,700/10gm and gold (999) at Rs11,750/10gm whereas Silver (.999) closed at Rs.20,900/kg.
· In Delhi bullion markets, gold (995) closed at Rs.11,750/10gm and gold (999) closed at Rs.11,800/10gm whereas Silver (.999) ends at Rs.20,540/kg.
MCX Gold Apr (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish now and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Gold April: Sell at 11740-750 for the target of 11690 and 11640 with stop loss at 11775
MCX Silver Mar (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are still bullish now and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Silver March: Sell at 21450-480 for the target of 21300 and 21170 with stop loss at 21560
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Friday, January 25, 2008
long view
COPPER
LIKELY TO TEST 245-235/227 UPTO 212 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 265/252, WHILE CLOSE ABOVE 293 UPTREND AGAIN(FEB)
ZINC
LIKELY TO TEST 82/78 UPTO 75 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 85, WHILE CLOSE ABOVE 103 & 105 UPTREND AGAIN(JAN)
NICKEL
LIKELY TO TEST 1015-20/995 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 1040 & CLOSE BELOW 995 TEST 950 ATLEAST, ONLY CLOSE ABOVE 1130 & 1205 UPTREND AGAIN
MCXARUN
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LIKELY TO TEST 245-235/227 UPTO 212 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 265/252, WHILE CLOSE ABOVE 293 UPTREND AGAIN(FEB)
ZINC
LIKELY TO TEST 82/78 UPTO 75 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 85, WHILE CLOSE ABOVE 103 & 105 UPTREND AGAIN(JAN)
NICKEL
LIKELY TO TEST 1015-20/995 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 1040 & CLOSE BELOW 995 TEST 950 ATLEAST, ONLY CLOSE ABOVE 1130 & 1205 UPTREND AGAIN
MCXARUN
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OUT LOOK
February gold closed sharply higher on Thursday and above the 10-day moving average crossing at 892.60. The high-range
close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday as February may be poised for further gains due to growing
inflation fears once equity markets stabilize and with the U.S. Federal Reserve accelerates the pace of easing its monetary
policy. Stochastics and the RSI turned neutral to bullish with today's rally signaling that additional gains are possible near-term.
If February renews this winter's rally, monthly resistance crossing at 930.00 is the next upside target. Closes below Tuesday's
low crossing at 849.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 913.90
then this month's high crossing at 916.10. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 892.60 then the 20-day
moving average crossing at 874.30.
March silver closed high on Thursday's and above the 10-day moving average crossing at 16.201. The high-range close sets the
stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral hinting that sideways to higher prices
are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off December's low, weekly resistance crossing at 17.000 is the next upside
target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.733 are needed to confirm that a double top with November's
high has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 16.525 then this month's high crossing at 16.715. First support
is the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.733 then Tuesday's low crossing at 15.255.
March copper closed higher on Thursday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 318.85. The high-range close sets
the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to
lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, December's low crossing at 285.30 is the next
downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 322.23. Second resistance is Tuesday's high crossing
at 327.50. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 301.20. Second support is December's low crossing at 285.30.
March crude oil closed sharply higher on Thursday from a three-month low Thursday after the Bush administration and
congressional leaders agreed on a growth package designed to avoid a major slowdown in the U.S. economy. The high-range
close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish
signaling that a double bottom with December's low appears to have been posted. Closes above the 20-day moving average
crossing at 93.59 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends this month's decline,
December's low crossing at 85.37 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 90.64.
Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 93.59. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 85.42. Second
support is December's low crossing at 85.37.
February Henry natural gas closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of this week's decline but remains below the 20-
day moving average crossing at 7.843. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics
and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends this week's
decline, the reaction low crossing at 7.500 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at
8.033 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at
7.843 then the 10-day moving average crossing at 8.033. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 7.570. Second support is
the reaction low crossing at 7.500.
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close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday as February may be poised for further gains due to growing
inflation fears once equity markets stabilize and with the U.S. Federal Reserve accelerates the pace of easing its monetary
policy. Stochastics and the RSI turned neutral to bullish with today's rally signaling that additional gains are possible near-term.
If February renews this winter's rally, monthly resistance crossing at 930.00 is the next upside target. Closes below Tuesday's
low crossing at 849.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 913.90
then this month's high crossing at 916.10. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 892.60 then the 20-day
moving average crossing at 874.30.
March silver closed high on Thursday's and above the 10-day moving average crossing at 16.201. The high-range close sets the
stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral hinting that sideways to higher prices
are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off December's low, weekly resistance crossing at 17.000 is the next upside
target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.733 are needed to confirm that a double top with November's
high has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 16.525 then this month's high crossing at 16.715. First support
is the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.733 then Tuesday's low crossing at 15.255.
March copper closed higher on Thursday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 318.85. The high-range close sets
the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to
lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, December's low crossing at 285.30 is the next
downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 322.23. Second resistance is Tuesday's high crossing
at 327.50. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 301.20. Second support is December's low crossing at 285.30.
March crude oil closed sharply higher on Thursday from a three-month low Thursday after the Bush administration and
congressional leaders agreed on a growth package designed to avoid a major slowdown in the U.S. economy. The high-range
close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish
signaling that a double bottom with December's low appears to have been posted. Closes above the 20-day moving average
crossing at 93.59 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends this month's decline,
December's low crossing at 85.37 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 90.64.
Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 93.59. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 85.42. Second
support is December's low crossing at 85.37.
February Henry natural gas closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of this week's decline but remains below the 20-
day moving average crossing at 7.843. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics
and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends this week's
decline, the reaction low crossing at 7.500 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at
8.033 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at
7.843 then the 10-day moving average crossing at 8.033. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 7.570. Second support is
the reaction low crossing at 7.500.
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Wednesday, January 23, 2008
What will happend after FED rate cut?
நேற்று காலை (ஜனவரி 22) அமெரிக்க பங்குச்சந்தையில் வர்த்தகம் தொடங்கிய முதல் நிமிடத்திலேயே டவ் ஜோன்ஸ் (Dow Jones industrial average) கடுமையாக சரிந்தது. சுமார் 465 புள்ளிகள் சரிவை டவ் ஜோன்ஸ் எதிர்கொண்டது. பிறகு ஒரளவு இந்த சரிவு மீட்கப்பட்டது. இதனால் ஆசிய பங்குச்சந்தைகளும், இந்தியப் பங்குச்சந்தைகளும் உயரக்கூடும் என்ற எண்ணம் ஏற்பட்டுள்ளது.
ட்வ் ஜோன்ஸ் இறுதியாக 128 புள்ளிகள் சரிவை அடைந்திருந்தது.
யாருமே எதிர்பாராத வகையில் அமெரிக்காவின் பிடரல் ரிசர்வ் (Federal Reserve) 75 புள்ளிகள் (75 basis points) அளவுக்கு வட்டி விகிதத்தை (Federal funds rate) குறைத்திருக்கிறது. அதாவது .75% . வட்டி விகிதம் 4.25% இருந்து 3.5% அளவுக்கு குறைந்திருக்கிறது. எளிமையாக விளக்கம் தர வேண்டும் என்றால் Federal funds rate என்பது அமெரிக்காவில் உள்ள வங்கிகள் தங்களுக்குள் ஒரு நாளுக்கு கடன் வழங்குவதற்கான வட்டி விகிதம். இந்த வட்டி விகிதம் தவிர Discount Rate என்னும் வட்டி விகிதத்தையும் பிடரல் ரிசர்வ் குறைத்திருக்கிறது. Discount Rate என்பது பிடரல் ரிசர்விடம் இருந்து வங்கிகள் குறுகிய காலத்திற்கு பெறும் வட்டி விகிதம். இது தற்பொழுது 4% என்றளவிற்கு குறைந்துள்ளது.
இது போன்று அதிரடியாக பிடரல் ரிசர்வ், வட்டி விகிதத்தை குறைப்பது வழக்கமில்லை. இவ்வளவு பெரிய அளவிளாலன வட்டி குறைப்பு 1990ம் ஆண்டு தான் அமெரிக்காவில் நடந்திருகிறது. அதுவும் அவசரமாக கூடி தற்பொழுது வட்டி விகிதம் குறைக்கப்பட்டது போன்று 2001ம் ஆண்டு நியூயார்க் இரட்டை கோபுரங்கள் தகர்க்கப்பட்ட பொழுது தான் நிகழ்ந்தது. பென் பெர்னான்கே தலைமையிலான அமெரிக்காவின் பிடரல் ரிசர்வ் உலகெங்கும் பங்குச்சந்தைகள் சரியத்தொடங்கியதும் அவசரமாக திங்கள் இரவு கூடி விவாதித்து வட்டி விகிதத்தை குறைத்திருக்கிறது. அமெரிக்காவில் திங்களன்று விடுமுறை என்பது குறிப்பிடத்தக்கது.
இவ்வாறு எமர்ஜன்சி (Emergency) காலம் போல வட்டி விகிதம் குறைக்கப்பட்டது அமெரிக்க பொருளாதாரம் எதிர்பார்த்த தேக்கத்தை (Recession) நோக்கி நகர்ந்து கொண்டிருக்கிறதோ என்ற அச்சத்தை இன்னும் அதிகரிக்கவே செய்திருக்கிறது. ஆனாலும் தற்காலிகமாக பிடரல் ரிசர்வின் அறிவிப்பு பங்குச்சந்தைகளுக்கு ஊக்கம் அளித்திருக்கிறது. இந்த அறிவிப்பிற்கு பிறகு ஐரோப்பிய பங்குச்சந்தைகள் சற்றே உயர்ந்தன. அமெரிக்க பங்குச்சந்தைகளும் இழந்த சரிவை மீட்டிருக்கின்றன.
ஆசிய பங்குச்சந்தைகளிலும், இந்திய பங்குச்சந்தைகளிலும் இந்த மாற்றம் எதிரொலிக்க கூடும்.
ஆனால் அமெரிக்க பொருளாதாரம் உண்மையிலேயே தேக்க நிலையை நோக்கி நகர்ந்து கொண்டிருக்கிறதா என்ற கேள்வியும், அதற்கான விடையும் தான் உலகப் பங்குச்சந்தைகளின் போக்கினை அடுத்து வரும் நாட்களில் தீர்மானிக்கும்.
அமெரிக்கா பிடரல் ரிசர்வின் வழக்கமான கூட்டம் அடுத்த வாரம் நடைபெற இருக்கிறது. அந்த கூட்டத்தில் இன்னும் வட்டி விகிதம் குறைக்கப்படக்கூடும் என தெரிகிறது. இந்த வட்டி குறைப்பு எவ்வாறு அமெரிக்காவின் பொருளாதாரத்தை உயர்த்தும் என்ற கேள்வி இயல்பானது தான். அதற்கு விடையை அமெரிக்காவின் பொருளாதாரம் குறித்து விரிவாக எழுதினால் தான் விளக்க முடியும். ஆனால் முழுமையாக அமெரிக்காவின் பொருளாதார பிரச்சனைகளை இந்த வட்டி விகித குறைப்பு மட்டும் சரி செய்து விட முடியாது.
அமெரிக்க பொருளாதார தேக்கம்
தற்பொழுது வீட்டுக்கடன் வட்டி விகிதம் 7.25% இருந்து 6.50% அளவுக்கு குறைந்துள்ளது. இதனால் வீட்டுக்கடனை செலுத்த முடியாமல் தங்கள் வீடுகளை இழக்கும் நிலையில் உள்ளவர்களுக்கு இது பலனளிக்கும் என பிடரல் ரிசர்வ் நம்புகிறது. அமெரிக்காவின் மார்ட்கேஜ் (Mortgage) சார்ந்த சப் பிரைம் (Sub-prime) கடனால் ஏற்பட்டிருக்கும் கடன் பிரச்சனைக்கு (Credit Crisis) இது ஓரளவிற்கு நிவாரணமாக இருக்க முடியுமே தவிர, இதுவே முழுமையான தீர்வாக முடியாது.
பல அமெரிக்க நிறுவனங்கள் தங்கள் இழப்புகளை அறிவித்துக் கொண்டே இருக்கின்றன. இன்று அமெரிக்காவின் முக்கியமான வங்கிகளான பேங்க் ஆப் அமெரிக்கா, வக்கோவியா போன்றவை சப் பிரைம் காரணமாக இழப்புகளை அறிவித்து உள்ளன. இவை தவிர பல அமெரிக்க நிறுவனங்கள் அளவுக்கு அதிகமான இழப்புகளை அறிவித்துள்ளன. இவை சப்-பிரைம் சார்ந்த சி.டி.ஒ (CDO - Credit Debt Obligations) பிரச்சனையால் நேர்ந்த இழப்பு. இந்த நிறுவனங்களின் இழப்பு இந்த வட்டி விகிதங்களை விட ஆழமான விவகாரம். இது அமெரிக்க நிறுவனங்கள் வீட்டு கடன் வழங்கும் விதத்தையே கேள்விக்குறியாக்கி இருக்கிறது. இன்றைய அமெரிக்க பொருளாதார சரிவிற்கும் இவை தான் காரணம்.
ஒரு சிறிய உதாரணத்தை காட்டினாலே இந்தப் பிரச்சனையின் ஆழம் புரியும்.
இந்தியாவில் வீட்டுகடன் என்றால் 10 லட்சம் கடன், அதற்கு 10% வட்டி, மாதம் இவ்வளவு ரூபாய் தவணை (EMI), குறிப்பிட்ட வருடங்களுக்கு செலுத்த வேண்டும் என மிகவும் நேரடியாக வீட்டுக்கடன் தான் இருக்கும். ஹிடன் காஸ்ட் (Hidden Cost) பெரும்பாலும் இருக்காது. அது போல 90% வங்கி கடன் கொடுத்தால் 10% நாம் முதலீடு செய்ய வேண்டும். (சில வங்கிகள் 100% கூட கொடுக்க தொடங்கியிருக்கின்றன. இது மிகவும் ஆபத்தானது என அமெரிக்காவில் இன்று நடக்கும் பிரச்சனைகளை கவனித்தால் புரியும்).
ஆனால் அமெரிக்காவின் மார்ட்கேஜ் (Mortgage) முறை சிக்கலானது. சற்று முன்னேறிய நிதி வடிவம். அது தான் இன்று அமெரிக்கா சந்தித்து வரும் பிரச்சனைகளுக்கும் முக்கிய காரணம்.
உதாரணமாக பளூன் லோன் (Balloon Mortgage) என்று ஒரு கடன் உண்டு. இதில் உங்களுக்கு 80% கடன் கிடைக்கும். மீதம் உள்ள 20% உங்களிடம் இருந்தால் நீங்கள் முதலீடு செய்யலாம். இல்லையா பிரச்சனையில்லை. அந்த 20% பணத்திற்கு மற்றொரு கடன் வாங்கிக் கொள்ளலாம். அந்த 20% பணத்திற்கு வட்டி விகிதம் அதிகமாக இருக்கும். அவ்வளவு தான். முதல் 7 வருடங்கள் வட்டி மட்டும் செலுத்திக் கொண்டே இருக்கலாம். 7 வருடங்களுக்கு பிறகு நீங்கள் மறுபடியும் வேறு நிறுவனத்திடம் ரீபினான்ஸ் செய்து கொள்ளலாம் (Re-finance). அதாவது ஒரு பைசா செலவில்லாமல் ஒரு வீடு உங்களுக்கு கிடைக்கும் என்பது தான் அந்த முறை.
ரியல் எஸ்டேட் அமெரிக்காவில் கொடி கட்டி பறந்த காலத்தில் பலர் இவ்வாறு தான் வீடு வாங்கினார்கள். வங்கிகள் கடன் கொடுத்து தங்கள் வருமானத்தை பெருக்கி கொள்ள வேண்டும் என்ற ஆசையில் கடன் பெற்றவர்கள் திருப்பி செலுத்துவார்களா என்ற கவலை சிறிதும் இல்லாமல் பலருக்கும் கடன்களை வாரி வழங்கின. இப்படி கடன்களை வாரி வழங்கினால் அந்த வங்கிகளுக்கு பணம் வேண்டாமா ? கவலையில்லை. அதற்கும் வழி உண்டு. மார்ட்கேஜ் நிறுவனங்களிடம் இருந்து அவை மார்ட்கேஜ் செக்கியூரிட்டிஸ்க (Mortgage Securities) மாற்றம் பெற்று பெரிய நிறுவனங்களிடம் செல்லும். பெரிய நிறுவனங்கள் அதனை CDO (Credit Debt Obligations) மாற்றி வெளிநாட்டிலும், பிற நிறுவனங்களிடமும் விற்பார்கள். இப்படி பண புழக்கம் இருந்து கொண்டே இருந்தது. பலருக்கும் கடன் வழங்க முடிந்தது. இப்படி உருவான பல சிடிஓக்கள் (CDO) சப் பிரைம்களை அடிப்படையாக கொண்டவை.
கடந்த வருடம் ஆரம்பம் முதல் ரியல் எஸ்டேட் சரிய தொடங்கியது. எந்த ஒரு முதலீடு இல்லாமலும் பலர் வீடுகளை வாங்கி அனுபவித்துக் கொண்டிருந்தனர். ஏனெனில் அவர்கள் செலுத்துவது எல்லாம் வட்டி மட்டுமே. முதலீடு எதுவும் இல்லை. ரியல் எஸ்டேட் சரிய தொடங்கியதும் 100,000 டாலர் பெறுமானமுள்ள வீடுகள் 90,000, 80,000 70,000 என சரிய தொடங்கின. இப்பொழுது என்ன செய்யலாம் ? முதலீடாக ஏதாவது பணம் செலுத்தியிருந்தால் அந்த வீட்டை தக்க வைத்துக் கொள்ள வேண்டும் என்ற அக்கறை இருக்கும். தவணையை தொடர்ந்து செலுத்தி கொண்டு இருப்போம். ஆனால் முதலீடு செய்ய வில்லை. வெறும் வட்டி மட்டும் தான். அதுவும் 7 வருடங்களுக்கு பிறகு மறுபடியும் ரீபினான்ஸ் (Re-finance) செய்யும் பொழுது வட்டி விகிதம் இன்னும் அதிகரிக்கும். பலர் தங்கள் தவணையை நிறுத்திக் கொண்டனர். இது வரை அந்த வீட்டிற்காக கட்டியதை வீட்டு வாடகையாக கூட வைத்துக் கொள்ளலாமே...
இது தான் ஆரம்பம். இதன் விளைவுகள் தான் இன்று அமெரிக்கா எதிர்கொண்டுள்ள பிரச்சனைகள். சரியாக தவணை செலுத்தாதவர்கள் தப்பித்துக் கொண்டார்கள். ஆனால் சரியாக தவணையை செலுத்தியவர்கள், பணத்தை முதலீடு செய்தவர்களின் நிலை தான் பரிதாபம்.
அமெரிக்க நிறுவனங்கள் இவை வெறும் சப்-பிரைம் என கூறி தப்பித்துக் கொள்கின்றன. உண்மை அதுவல்ல. கடன் வழங்கிய முறை தவறு. அதனை சிடிஓக்களாக (CDO) விற்ற முறை தவறு. அந்த சிடிஓக்களை (CDO) மதிப்பீடு (Valuation) செய்த முறை தவறு. ரிஸ்க் மேனேஜ்மண்டில் (Risk Management) குளறுபடி.
இத்தனை குளறுபடிகள் இன்று உலகப் பொருளாதாரத்தையே அச்சம் கொள்ள வைத்திருக்கிறது.
thanks to bullish tamilan
MCXARUN
9994500540
ட்வ் ஜோன்ஸ் இறுதியாக 128 புள்ளிகள் சரிவை அடைந்திருந்தது.
யாருமே எதிர்பாராத வகையில் அமெரிக்காவின் பிடரல் ரிசர்வ் (Federal Reserve) 75 புள்ளிகள் (75 basis points) அளவுக்கு வட்டி விகிதத்தை (Federal funds rate) குறைத்திருக்கிறது. அதாவது .75% . வட்டி விகிதம் 4.25% இருந்து 3.5% அளவுக்கு குறைந்திருக்கிறது. எளிமையாக விளக்கம் தர வேண்டும் என்றால் Federal funds rate என்பது அமெரிக்காவில் உள்ள வங்கிகள் தங்களுக்குள் ஒரு நாளுக்கு கடன் வழங்குவதற்கான வட்டி விகிதம். இந்த வட்டி விகிதம் தவிர Discount Rate என்னும் வட்டி விகிதத்தையும் பிடரல் ரிசர்வ் குறைத்திருக்கிறது. Discount Rate என்பது பிடரல் ரிசர்விடம் இருந்து வங்கிகள் குறுகிய காலத்திற்கு பெறும் வட்டி விகிதம். இது தற்பொழுது 4% என்றளவிற்கு குறைந்துள்ளது.
இது போன்று அதிரடியாக பிடரல் ரிசர்வ், வட்டி விகிதத்தை குறைப்பது வழக்கமில்லை. இவ்வளவு பெரிய அளவிளாலன வட்டி குறைப்பு 1990ம் ஆண்டு தான் அமெரிக்காவில் நடந்திருகிறது. அதுவும் அவசரமாக கூடி தற்பொழுது வட்டி விகிதம் குறைக்கப்பட்டது போன்று 2001ம் ஆண்டு நியூயார்க் இரட்டை கோபுரங்கள் தகர்க்கப்பட்ட பொழுது தான் நிகழ்ந்தது. பென் பெர்னான்கே தலைமையிலான அமெரிக்காவின் பிடரல் ரிசர்வ் உலகெங்கும் பங்குச்சந்தைகள் சரியத்தொடங்கியதும் அவசரமாக திங்கள் இரவு கூடி விவாதித்து வட்டி விகிதத்தை குறைத்திருக்கிறது. அமெரிக்காவில் திங்களன்று விடுமுறை என்பது குறிப்பிடத்தக்கது.
இவ்வாறு எமர்ஜன்சி (Emergency) காலம் போல வட்டி விகிதம் குறைக்கப்பட்டது அமெரிக்க பொருளாதாரம் எதிர்பார்த்த தேக்கத்தை (Recession) நோக்கி நகர்ந்து கொண்டிருக்கிறதோ என்ற அச்சத்தை இன்னும் அதிகரிக்கவே செய்திருக்கிறது. ஆனாலும் தற்காலிகமாக பிடரல் ரிசர்வின் அறிவிப்பு பங்குச்சந்தைகளுக்கு ஊக்கம் அளித்திருக்கிறது. இந்த அறிவிப்பிற்கு பிறகு ஐரோப்பிய பங்குச்சந்தைகள் சற்றே உயர்ந்தன. அமெரிக்க பங்குச்சந்தைகளும் இழந்த சரிவை மீட்டிருக்கின்றன.
ஆசிய பங்குச்சந்தைகளிலும், இந்திய பங்குச்சந்தைகளிலும் இந்த மாற்றம் எதிரொலிக்க கூடும்.
ஆனால் அமெரிக்க பொருளாதாரம் உண்மையிலேயே தேக்க நிலையை நோக்கி நகர்ந்து கொண்டிருக்கிறதா என்ற கேள்வியும், அதற்கான விடையும் தான் உலகப் பங்குச்சந்தைகளின் போக்கினை அடுத்து வரும் நாட்களில் தீர்மானிக்கும்.
அமெரிக்கா பிடரல் ரிசர்வின் வழக்கமான கூட்டம் அடுத்த வாரம் நடைபெற இருக்கிறது. அந்த கூட்டத்தில் இன்னும் வட்டி விகிதம் குறைக்கப்படக்கூடும் என தெரிகிறது. இந்த வட்டி குறைப்பு எவ்வாறு அமெரிக்காவின் பொருளாதாரத்தை உயர்த்தும் என்ற கேள்வி இயல்பானது தான். அதற்கு விடையை அமெரிக்காவின் பொருளாதாரம் குறித்து விரிவாக எழுதினால் தான் விளக்க முடியும். ஆனால் முழுமையாக அமெரிக்காவின் பொருளாதார பிரச்சனைகளை இந்த வட்டி விகித குறைப்பு மட்டும் சரி செய்து விட முடியாது.
அமெரிக்க பொருளாதார தேக்கம்
தற்பொழுது வீட்டுக்கடன் வட்டி விகிதம் 7.25% இருந்து 6.50% அளவுக்கு குறைந்துள்ளது. இதனால் வீட்டுக்கடனை செலுத்த முடியாமல் தங்கள் வீடுகளை இழக்கும் நிலையில் உள்ளவர்களுக்கு இது பலனளிக்கும் என பிடரல் ரிசர்வ் நம்புகிறது. அமெரிக்காவின் மார்ட்கேஜ் (Mortgage) சார்ந்த சப் பிரைம் (Sub-prime) கடனால் ஏற்பட்டிருக்கும் கடன் பிரச்சனைக்கு (Credit Crisis) இது ஓரளவிற்கு நிவாரணமாக இருக்க முடியுமே தவிர, இதுவே முழுமையான தீர்வாக முடியாது.
பல அமெரிக்க நிறுவனங்கள் தங்கள் இழப்புகளை அறிவித்துக் கொண்டே இருக்கின்றன. இன்று அமெரிக்காவின் முக்கியமான வங்கிகளான பேங்க் ஆப் அமெரிக்கா, வக்கோவியா போன்றவை சப் பிரைம் காரணமாக இழப்புகளை அறிவித்து உள்ளன. இவை தவிர பல அமெரிக்க நிறுவனங்கள் அளவுக்கு அதிகமான இழப்புகளை அறிவித்துள்ளன. இவை சப்-பிரைம் சார்ந்த சி.டி.ஒ (CDO - Credit Debt Obligations) பிரச்சனையால் நேர்ந்த இழப்பு. இந்த நிறுவனங்களின் இழப்பு இந்த வட்டி விகிதங்களை விட ஆழமான விவகாரம். இது அமெரிக்க நிறுவனங்கள் வீட்டு கடன் வழங்கும் விதத்தையே கேள்விக்குறியாக்கி இருக்கிறது. இன்றைய அமெரிக்க பொருளாதார சரிவிற்கும் இவை தான் காரணம்.
ஒரு சிறிய உதாரணத்தை காட்டினாலே இந்தப் பிரச்சனையின் ஆழம் புரியும்.
இந்தியாவில் வீட்டுகடன் என்றால் 10 லட்சம் கடன், அதற்கு 10% வட்டி, மாதம் இவ்வளவு ரூபாய் தவணை (EMI), குறிப்பிட்ட வருடங்களுக்கு செலுத்த வேண்டும் என மிகவும் நேரடியாக வீட்டுக்கடன் தான் இருக்கும். ஹிடன் காஸ்ட் (Hidden Cost) பெரும்பாலும் இருக்காது. அது போல 90% வங்கி கடன் கொடுத்தால் 10% நாம் முதலீடு செய்ய வேண்டும். (சில வங்கிகள் 100% கூட கொடுக்க தொடங்கியிருக்கின்றன. இது மிகவும் ஆபத்தானது என அமெரிக்காவில் இன்று நடக்கும் பிரச்சனைகளை கவனித்தால் புரியும்).
ஆனால் அமெரிக்காவின் மார்ட்கேஜ் (Mortgage) முறை சிக்கலானது. சற்று முன்னேறிய நிதி வடிவம். அது தான் இன்று அமெரிக்கா சந்தித்து வரும் பிரச்சனைகளுக்கும் முக்கிய காரணம்.
உதாரணமாக பளூன் லோன் (Balloon Mortgage) என்று ஒரு கடன் உண்டு. இதில் உங்களுக்கு 80% கடன் கிடைக்கும். மீதம் உள்ள 20% உங்களிடம் இருந்தால் நீங்கள் முதலீடு செய்யலாம். இல்லையா பிரச்சனையில்லை. அந்த 20% பணத்திற்கு மற்றொரு கடன் வாங்கிக் கொள்ளலாம். அந்த 20% பணத்திற்கு வட்டி விகிதம் அதிகமாக இருக்கும். அவ்வளவு தான். முதல் 7 வருடங்கள் வட்டி மட்டும் செலுத்திக் கொண்டே இருக்கலாம். 7 வருடங்களுக்கு பிறகு நீங்கள் மறுபடியும் வேறு நிறுவனத்திடம் ரீபினான்ஸ் செய்து கொள்ளலாம் (Re-finance). அதாவது ஒரு பைசா செலவில்லாமல் ஒரு வீடு உங்களுக்கு கிடைக்கும் என்பது தான் அந்த முறை.
ரியல் எஸ்டேட் அமெரிக்காவில் கொடி கட்டி பறந்த காலத்தில் பலர் இவ்வாறு தான் வீடு வாங்கினார்கள். வங்கிகள் கடன் கொடுத்து தங்கள் வருமானத்தை பெருக்கி கொள்ள வேண்டும் என்ற ஆசையில் கடன் பெற்றவர்கள் திருப்பி செலுத்துவார்களா என்ற கவலை சிறிதும் இல்லாமல் பலருக்கும் கடன்களை வாரி வழங்கின. இப்படி கடன்களை வாரி வழங்கினால் அந்த வங்கிகளுக்கு பணம் வேண்டாமா ? கவலையில்லை. அதற்கும் வழி உண்டு. மார்ட்கேஜ் நிறுவனங்களிடம் இருந்து அவை மார்ட்கேஜ் செக்கியூரிட்டிஸ்க (Mortgage Securities) மாற்றம் பெற்று பெரிய நிறுவனங்களிடம் செல்லும். பெரிய நிறுவனங்கள் அதனை CDO (Credit Debt Obligations) மாற்றி வெளிநாட்டிலும், பிற நிறுவனங்களிடமும் விற்பார்கள். இப்படி பண புழக்கம் இருந்து கொண்டே இருந்தது. பலருக்கும் கடன் வழங்க முடிந்தது. இப்படி உருவான பல சிடிஓக்கள் (CDO) சப் பிரைம்களை அடிப்படையாக கொண்டவை.
கடந்த வருடம் ஆரம்பம் முதல் ரியல் எஸ்டேட் சரிய தொடங்கியது. எந்த ஒரு முதலீடு இல்லாமலும் பலர் வீடுகளை வாங்கி அனுபவித்துக் கொண்டிருந்தனர். ஏனெனில் அவர்கள் செலுத்துவது எல்லாம் வட்டி மட்டுமே. முதலீடு எதுவும் இல்லை. ரியல் எஸ்டேட் சரிய தொடங்கியதும் 100,000 டாலர் பெறுமானமுள்ள வீடுகள் 90,000, 80,000 70,000 என சரிய தொடங்கின. இப்பொழுது என்ன செய்யலாம் ? முதலீடாக ஏதாவது பணம் செலுத்தியிருந்தால் அந்த வீட்டை தக்க வைத்துக் கொள்ள வேண்டும் என்ற அக்கறை இருக்கும். தவணையை தொடர்ந்து செலுத்தி கொண்டு இருப்போம். ஆனால் முதலீடு செய்ய வில்லை. வெறும் வட்டி மட்டும் தான். அதுவும் 7 வருடங்களுக்கு பிறகு மறுபடியும் ரீபினான்ஸ் (Re-finance) செய்யும் பொழுது வட்டி விகிதம் இன்னும் அதிகரிக்கும். பலர் தங்கள் தவணையை நிறுத்திக் கொண்டனர். இது வரை அந்த வீட்டிற்காக கட்டியதை வீட்டு வாடகையாக கூட வைத்துக் கொள்ளலாமே...
இது தான் ஆரம்பம். இதன் விளைவுகள் தான் இன்று அமெரிக்கா எதிர்கொண்டுள்ள பிரச்சனைகள். சரியாக தவணை செலுத்தாதவர்கள் தப்பித்துக் கொண்டார்கள். ஆனால் சரியாக தவணையை செலுத்தியவர்கள், பணத்தை முதலீடு செய்தவர்களின் நிலை தான் பரிதாபம்.
அமெரிக்க நிறுவனங்கள் இவை வெறும் சப்-பிரைம் என கூறி தப்பித்துக் கொள்கின்றன. உண்மை அதுவல்ல. கடன் வழங்கிய முறை தவறு. அதனை சிடிஓக்களாக (CDO) விற்ற முறை தவறு. அந்த சிடிஓக்களை (CDO) மதிப்பீடு (Valuation) செய்த முறை தவறு. ரிஸ்க் மேனேஜ்மண்டில் (Risk Management) குளறுபடி.
இத்தனை குளறுபடிகள் இன்று உலகப் பொருளாதாரத்தையே அச்சம் கொள்ள வைத்திருக்கிறது.
thanks to bullish tamilan
MCXARUN
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bullion chart
MCX Gold day chart
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MCX Silver day chart
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MCXARUN
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MCX Silver day chart
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MCXARUN
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Energy
Crude oil futures were lower on Tuesday but had bounced well above earlier lows after the Federal Reserve unexpectedly cut its benchmark overnight lending rate 75 basis points to 3.5 per cent hoping to reduce market fears about a US recession.
· MCX Crude Oil Feb registered days low at Rs. 3395 per barrel, but bounce back to trade high above Rs. 3500per barrel, similarly Nymex Crude oil was trading at $89.31 per barrel and registered days low at $86.11
· TheCentral U.S., west of theGreat Lakes and as far south asKansas, experienced single digit temperatures or colder this morning. The 6 to 10 day forecast from the National Weather Service is expecting above average temperatures for the eastern third of theU.S. March crude oil is steady to lower. March natural gas is steady to lower.
· The Federal Reserve surprised the markets this morning by cutting the federal funds rate .75% to 3.50%. Will it be enough to stop the selling panic in the stock market? The Open Market Committee meeting is scheduled for next Tuesday and Wednesday.
· Iraq has extended until Feb 18 the deadline for foreign oil companies to apply for service contracts linked to exploitation of its vast crude reserves, the oil ministry said.
· Production hike by OPEC seems unlikely looking at the recent sharp correction in the crude oil prices. The cartel might again avoid hike in production in its forth-coming meeting saying the market is well supplied for the reduced in a recessionary environment. Slow down in economic activity might hurt the energy demand. Venezuela's Rafael Ramirez said on Monday he does not believe OPEC needs to increase output.
· Demand for refined fuels like heating oil and gasoline is weakening due to milder winter weather and higher prices, leading some refiners in theUnited States,Europe andNortheast Asia to cut back output.
MCX Crude Oil Feb (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Crude Oil Feb: Sell at 3515-3520 for target of 3460 and 3430 with stop loss at 3565
MCX Natural gas Feb (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Natural Gas Feb: Sell at 306-305 for the target of 298 and 294 with stop loss at 313.20
MCXARUN
9994500540
· MCX Crude Oil Feb registered days low at Rs. 3395 per barrel, but bounce back to trade high above Rs. 3500per barrel, similarly Nymex Crude oil was trading at $89.31 per barrel and registered days low at $86.11
· TheCentral U.S., west of theGreat Lakes and as far south asKansas, experienced single digit temperatures or colder this morning. The 6 to 10 day forecast from the National Weather Service is expecting above average temperatures for the eastern third of theU.S. March crude oil is steady to lower. March natural gas is steady to lower.
· The Federal Reserve surprised the markets this morning by cutting the federal funds rate .75% to 3.50%. Will it be enough to stop the selling panic in the stock market? The Open Market Committee meeting is scheduled for next Tuesday and Wednesday.
· Iraq has extended until Feb 18 the deadline for foreign oil companies to apply for service contracts linked to exploitation of its vast crude reserves, the oil ministry said.
· Production hike by OPEC seems unlikely looking at the recent sharp correction in the crude oil prices. The cartel might again avoid hike in production in its forth-coming meeting saying the market is well supplied for the reduced in a recessionary environment. Slow down in economic activity might hurt the energy demand. Venezuela's Rafael Ramirez said on Monday he does not believe OPEC needs to increase output.
· Demand for refined fuels like heating oil and gasoline is weakening due to milder winter weather and higher prices, leading some refiners in theUnited States,Europe andNortheast Asia to cut back output.
MCX Crude Oil Feb (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Crude Oil Feb: Sell at 3515-3520 for target of 3460 and 3430 with stop loss at 3565
MCX Natural gas Feb (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Natural Gas Feb: Sell at 306-305 for the target of 298 and 294 with stop loss at 313.20
MCXARUN
9994500540
Bullion
Bullion traded very volatile on Tuesday on MCX, market traded weak initially following previous days movement and turned positive as Fed announced interest rate cut.
· MCX Gold Feb traded very bullish after registering a low of Rs. 10848 per 10gram, market jumped to trade above Rs. 11300 per 10 gram. Similarly MCX Silver March registered days low at Rs. 19853 per kg and bounced toward the high and traded above Rs. 20800 per kg.
· International spot gold traded above $890 per toz and Silver was trading above$16.02 level after registering a low of $848.40 and $15.16 respectively.
· The Federal Reserve, confronted with a global stock sell-off fanned by increased fears of a recession, slashed a key interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point on Tuesday and indicated further rate cuts were likely.
· The surprise reduction in the federal funds rate from 4.25 down to 3.5 percent marked the biggest funds rate cut on records going back to 1990. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues took the action after an emergency videoconference on Monday night; a day when global markets had been pounded by rising concerns that weakness in the world's largest economy was spreading worldwide.
Indian Bullion Spot Market
Precious metals witnessed a slide in spot markets tracing the meltdown in Asian equity markets on US recession concerns.
· In Mumbai markets, gold (995) and gold (999) declined by Rs.135 to finish at Rs.11,055/10gm and Rs.11,105/10gm respectively whereas Silver (.999) closed down by Rs.320 at Rs.20,150/kg. Arrivals in gold were at 100 kilos and traded volumes were at 100 kilos whereas arrivals in silver were at 100 kilos and volumes at 150 kilos.
· Chennai gold (995) and gold (999) was down by Rs.200 to finish at Rs.11,150/10gm and Rs.11,200/10gm respectively whereas Silver (.999) closed at Rs.19,700/kg, falling by Rs.400.
· Jaipur gold standard dipped by Rs.90 to close at Rs.11,150/10gm whereas Silver (.999) was down by Rs.300 to close at Rs.20,000/kg.
· Ahmedabad gold (995) sagged by Rs.85 to close at Rs.11,045/10gm and gold (999) by Rs.90 to close at Rs.11,090/10gm whereas Silver (.999) closed at Rs.20,100/kg, down by Rs.300.
· In Delhi bullion markets, gold (995) and gold (999) decreased by Rs.120 to close at Rs.11,100/10gm and Rs.11,150/10gm respectively whereas Silver (.999) was down by Rs. 750 to end at Rs.19,400/kg.
MCX Gold Feb (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish now and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MOrning Gold Sell @ 11270/11285 for the target of 11240/11220 with stoploss 11315
intraday
MCX Gold Feb: Buy at 11160-175 for the target of 11230, 11300 and 11365 with stop loss at 11132
MCX Silver Mar (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are still bullish now and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
Morning Silver Sell @ 20690/20725 for the target of 20600/20500 with the stoploss at 20790
MCX Silver March: Buy at 20450-480 for the target of 20580, 20700 and 20820 with stop loss at 20300
MCXARUN
9994500540
· MCX Gold Feb traded very bullish after registering a low of Rs. 10848 per 10gram, market jumped to trade above Rs. 11300 per 10 gram. Similarly MCX Silver March registered days low at Rs. 19853 per kg and bounced toward the high and traded above Rs. 20800 per kg.
· International spot gold traded above $890 per toz and Silver was trading above$16.02 level after registering a low of $848.40 and $15.16 respectively.
· The Federal Reserve, confronted with a global stock sell-off fanned by increased fears of a recession, slashed a key interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point on Tuesday and indicated further rate cuts were likely.
· The surprise reduction in the federal funds rate from 4.25 down to 3.5 percent marked the biggest funds rate cut on records going back to 1990. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues took the action after an emergency videoconference on Monday night; a day when global markets had been pounded by rising concerns that weakness in the world's largest economy was spreading worldwide.
Indian Bullion Spot Market
Precious metals witnessed a slide in spot markets tracing the meltdown in Asian equity markets on US recession concerns.
· In Mumbai markets, gold (995) and gold (999) declined by Rs.135 to finish at Rs.11,055/10gm and Rs.11,105/10gm respectively whereas Silver (.999) closed down by Rs.320 at Rs.20,150/kg. Arrivals in gold were at 100 kilos and traded volumes were at 100 kilos whereas arrivals in silver were at 100 kilos and volumes at 150 kilos.
· Chennai gold (995) and gold (999) was down by Rs.200 to finish at Rs.11,150/10gm and Rs.11,200/10gm respectively whereas Silver (.999) closed at Rs.19,700/kg, falling by Rs.400.
· Jaipur gold standard dipped by Rs.90 to close at Rs.11,150/10gm whereas Silver (.999) was down by Rs.300 to close at Rs.20,000/kg.
· Ahmedabad gold (995) sagged by Rs.85 to close at Rs.11,045/10gm and gold (999) by Rs.90 to close at Rs.11,090/10gm whereas Silver (.999) closed at Rs.20,100/kg, down by Rs.300.
· In Delhi bullion markets, gold (995) and gold (999) decreased by Rs.120 to close at Rs.11,100/10gm and Rs.11,150/10gm respectively whereas Silver (.999) was down by Rs. 750 to end at Rs.19,400/kg.
MCX Gold Feb (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish now and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MOrning Gold Sell @ 11270/11285 for the target of 11240/11220 with stoploss 11315
intraday
MCX Gold Feb: Buy at 11160-175 for the target of 11230, 11300 and 11365 with stop loss at 11132
MCX Silver Mar (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are still bullish now and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
Morning Silver Sell @ 20690/20725 for the target of 20600/20500 with the stoploss at 20790
MCX Silver March: Buy at 20450-480 for the target of 20580, 20700 and 20820 with stop loss at 20300
MCXARUN
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outlook
February gold closed higher on Tuesday and above the 10-day moving average crossing at 887.80. Early weakness tied to
Monday's financial meltdown across the globe tested broken resistance marked by November's high crossing at 855.00. The
high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling
that additional weakness is still possible near-term. Closes below today's low crossing at 849.50 would open the door for a
larger-degree decline near-term. If February renews this winter's rally, monthly resistance crossing at 930.00 is the next upside
target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 895.60 then this month's high crossing at 916.10. First support is today's low
crossing at 849.50 then the 38% retracement level of the August-January rally crossing at 818.90.
March silver closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidated some of last Friday's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a
steady to higher opening on Wednesday. However, stochastics and the RSI remain bearish hinting that a double top with
November's high might have been posted last week. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.627 are needed to
confirm that a double top with November's high has been posted. If March renews the rally off December's low, weekly
resistance crossing at 17.000 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 16.420 then this month's
high crossing at 16.715. First support is today's low crossing at 15.255 then the 38% retracement level of the August-January
rally crossing at 14.722.
March copper closed lower on Tuesday but remains above the 20-day moving average crossing at 318.72. The high-range close
sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to
lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 318.72 are needed to confirm that a
short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the October-
December decline crossing at 340.79 is the next upside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 327.50. Second
resistance is the 50% retracement level crossing at 330.22. First support is today's low crossing at 301.20. Second support is
December's low crossing at 285.30.
February crude oil closed lower on Tuesday however, today's surprise interest rate cut by the Fed helped to buoy the energy
markets, which have been declining since the beginning of the year. Early session lows fell short of testing December's low
crossing at 85.37 before the market rebounded to temper early session losses. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to
firmer opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional
weakness is still possible. If February extends this month's decline, December's low crossing at 85.37 is the next downside
target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 94.24 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market.
First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 91.81. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at
94.24. First support is today's low crossing at 86.11. Second support is December's low crossing at 85.37.
February Henry natural gas closed lower on Tuesday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.820 confirming that a
short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and
the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends this week's decline, the
reaction low crossing at 7.500 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 8.081 are
needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 7.991 then the 10-day
moving average crossing at 8.081. First support is today's low crossing at 7.626. Second support is the reaction low crossing at
7.500.
MCXARUN
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Monday's financial meltdown across the globe tested broken resistance marked by November's high crossing at 855.00. The
high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling
that additional weakness is still possible near-term. Closes below today's low crossing at 849.50 would open the door for a
larger-degree decline near-term. If February renews this winter's rally, monthly resistance crossing at 930.00 is the next upside
target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 895.60 then this month's high crossing at 916.10. First support is today's low
crossing at 849.50 then the 38% retracement level of the August-January rally crossing at 818.90.
March silver closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidated some of last Friday's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a
steady to higher opening on Wednesday. However, stochastics and the RSI remain bearish hinting that a double top with
November's high might have been posted last week. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.627 are needed to
confirm that a double top with November's high has been posted. If March renews the rally off December's low, weekly
resistance crossing at 17.000 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 16.420 then this month's
high crossing at 16.715. First support is today's low crossing at 15.255 then the 38% retracement level of the August-January
rally crossing at 14.722.
March copper closed lower on Tuesday but remains above the 20-day moving average crossing at 318.72. The high-range close
sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to
lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 318.72 are needed to confirm that a
short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the October-
December decline crossing at 340.79 is the next upside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 327.50. Second
resistance is the 50% retracement level crossing at 330.22. First support is today's low crossing at 301.20. Second support is
December's low crossing at 285.30.
February crude oil closed lower on Tuesday however, today's surprise interest rate cut by the Fed helped to buoy the energy
markets, which have been declining since the beginning of the year. Early session lows fell short of testing December's low
crossing at 85.37 before the market rebounded to temper early session losses. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to
firmer opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional
weakness is still possible. If February extends this month's decline, December's low crossing at 85.37 is the next downside
target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 94.24 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market.
First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 91.81. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at
94.24. First support is today's low crossing at 86.11. Second support is December's low crossing at 85.37.
February Henry natural gas closed lower on Tuesday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.820 confirming that a
short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and
the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends this week's decline, the
reaction low crossing at 7.500 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 8.081 are
needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 7.991 then the 10-day
moving average crossing at 8.081. First support is today's low crossing at 7.626. Second support is the reaction low crossing at
7.500.
MCXARUN
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GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
“In the Nick of Time”, that’s all I can comment on the Fed rate cut of 0.75% yesterday. Global stock markets and commodity markets were reeling under expectations of a US recession and the subsequent sell off. The Fed rate cut will provide the much needed relief to investor. Markets now expect the Fed to cut interest rates by a further 0.50% next week. The European central bank and bank of England may also follow the Fed and cut interest rates next month, thereby adding more liquidity to the markets. Interest rate cuts imply more liquidity to the money markets which will result in a rise in speculative interest in commodities and higher commodity price inflation coupled with lower growth rates, which is nothing but stagflation. Gold performs best in stagflation.
However physical gold demand at higher prices is almost negligent as prices have risen too fast. However if the gold price stabilizes around $850 for a long time, physical demand will return to the market. For the time being its investment demand which will dictate gold, silver and other metal prices. The best intra day strategy is to book partial profits on your trades and instead of putting a stop loss, exit the market when prices near the stop loss levels.
COPPER -- MARCH FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $327.0
Copper managed to hold $301 and needs to break $331 and $339 for gains.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $90.40
Crude oil has to hold $87 else it will fall to $82. The direct relationship between crude oil and the US dollar will continue. Resistance at $90.20
MCXARUN
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However physical gold demand at higher prices is almost negligent as prices have risen too fast. However if the gold price stabilizes around $850 for a long time, physical demand will return to the market. For the time being its investment demand which will dictate gold, silver and other metal prices. The best intra day strategy is to book partial profits on your trades and instead of putting a stop loss, exit the market when prices near the stop loss levels.
COPPER -- MARCH FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $327.0
Copper managed to hold $301 and needs to break $331 and $339 for gains.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $90.40
Crude oil has to hold $87 else it will fall to $82. The direct relationship between crude oil and the US dollar will continue. Resistance at $90.20
MCXARUN
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Tuesday, January 22, 2008
Base metals
Copper:
Copper trade on ACCESS is showing higher prices in recent activity extending the prior sessions gains. Trend indicators have turned from a neutral price pattern to a bullish bias. However the overall strength of the trend, as indicated by the ADX, is weak and should be watched as a result. Momentum readings are also bullish. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days and should be watched.
TREND INDICATORS:
Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. However, even though prices are trading below the moving average, the moving average slope is up from the previous session. Should prices continue lower the moving average will eventually follow and then the down trend will be more clearly established. However, this strength in the moving average will need to be watched. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a weak bearish bias.
Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. However, despite prices trading above the moving average line, the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session. If prices trade below the moving average then the trend will be clearly established as up. However, this strength in the price will need to be watched. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a weak bearish bias.
ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is falling, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is down. However, the weak ADX indicates that the current trend is deteriorating and may possibly reverse. Look for a choppiness ahead.
MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days.
RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 52.46). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 52.46 the market is somewhat overbought. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of weakness from this indicator before getting too bearish here.
VOLATILITY INDICATORS:
Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Volatility also appears to be decreasing, as evidenced by a smaller distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions.
RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:
3.3880 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
3.3785 - Highest High in last 10-Days
3.3785 - Highest High in last 50-Days
3.3648 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
3.3027 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
3.2695 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
3.2443 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
3.2140 - High
3.1990 - Last Price
3.1845 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
3.1450 - Low
3.1253 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
3.1060 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
3.1006 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
3.0789 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
2.9835 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
2.8530 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
MCXARUN
9994500540
Copper trade on ACCESS is showing higher prices in recent activity extending the prior sessions gains. Trend indicators have turned from a neutral price pattern to a bullish bias. However the overall strength of the trend, as indicated by the ADX, is weak and should be watched as a result. Momentum readings are also bullish. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days and should be watched.
TREND INDICATORS:
Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. However, even though prices are trading below the moving average, the moving average slope is up from the previous session. Should prices continue lower the moving average will eventually follow and then the down trend will be more clearly established. However, this strength in the moving average will need to be watched. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a weak bearish bias.
Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. However, despite prices trading above the moving average line, the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session. If prices trade below the moving average then the trend will be clearly established as up. However, this strength in the price will need to be watched. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a weak bearish bias.
ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is falling, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is down. However, the weak ADX indicates that the current trend is deteriorating and may possibly reverse. Look for a choppiness ahead.
MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days.
RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 52.46). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 52.46 the market is somewhat overbought. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of weakness from this indicator before getting too bearish here.
VOLATILITY INDICATORS:
Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Volatility also appears to be decreasing, as evidenced by a smaller distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions.
RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:
3.3880 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
3.3785 - Highest High in last 10-Days
3.3785 - Highest High in last 50-Days
3.3648 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
3.3027 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
3.2695 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
3.2443 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
3.2140 - High
3.1990 - Last Price
3.1845 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
3.1450 - Low
3.1253 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
3.1060 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
3.1006 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
3.0789 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
2.9835 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
2.8530 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
MCXARUN
9994500540
energy
Crude Oil:
Front month crude oil is weaker in ACCESS trade this morning extending the prior sessions weaker close. Trend indicators are indicating a bearish market and the overall strength of the trend is strong, as indicated by the ADX. Momentum readings are also in bearish territory.
TREND INDICATORS:
Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session indicating further weakness. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bearish bias.
Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. Furthermore the markets trend has changed direction since the previous session. The slope of the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session indicating weakness. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bearish bias.
Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session indicating further weakness. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bearish bias.
ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is rising, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is down. As the ADX is rising this indicates that the current trend is strong and should remain intact. Look for the current trend to continue.
MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bearish territory.
RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 40.71). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 40.71 the market is somewhat oversold. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of strength from this indicator before getting too bullish here.
VOLATILITY INDICATORS:
Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating oversold prices. Despite this oversold condition the market may become more oversold before turning higher. As a result, the market will look for additional strength in prices before turning bullish on this indicator.
RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:
100.09 - Highest High in last 50-Days
100.03 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
98.40 - Highest High in last 10-Days
97.28 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
93.85 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
93.34 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
93.07 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
91.77 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
90.36 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
90.13 - High
90.11 - Last Price
89.10 - Low
89.10 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
89.01 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
88.41 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
85.82 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
78.47 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
Natural Gas:
Natural Gas contracts are higher this morning reversing the weaker tone seen during the prior session. Trend indicators are indicating a bullish market. However the overall strength of the trend, as indicated by the ADX, is weak and should be watched as a result. Momentum readings are also bullish. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days and should be watched.
TREND INDICATORS:
Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices cross above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is falling, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. However, the weak ADX indicates that the current trend is deteriorating and may possibly reverse. Look for choppiness ahead.
MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days.
RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 62.90). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 62.90 the market is somewhat overbought. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of weakness from this indicator before getting too bearish here.
VOLATILITY INDICATORS:
Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Volatility also appears to be decreasing, as evidenced by a smaller distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions. Despite this overbought condition the market may become more overbought before turning lower. As a result, the market will look for additional weakening in prices before turning bearish on this indicator.
RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:
8.616 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
8.480 - Highest High in last 10-Days
8.480 - Highest High in last 50-Days
8.194 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
8.173 - High
8.173 - Last Price
8.135 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
8.129 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
8.110 - Low
7.701 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
7.640 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
7.588 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
7.348 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
7.231 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
7.171 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
6.926 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
6.914 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
MCXARUN
9994500540
Front month crude oil is weaker in ACCESS trade this morning extending the prior sessions weaker close. Trend indicators are indicating a bearish market and the overall strength of the trend is strong, as indicated by the ADX. Momentum readings are also in bearish territory.
TREND INDICATORS:
Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session indicating further weakness. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bearish bias.
Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. Furthermore the markets trend has changed direction since the previous session. The slope of the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session indicating weakness. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bearish bias.
Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session indicating further weakness. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bearish bias.
ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is rising, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is down. As the ADX is rising this indicates that the current trend is strong and should remain intact. Look for the current trend to continue.
MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bearish territory.
RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 40.71). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 40.71 the market is somewhat oversold. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of strength from this indicator before getting too bullish here.
VOLATILITY INDICATORS:
Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating oversold prices. Despite this oversold condition the market may become more oversold before turning higher. As a result, the market will look for additional strength in prices before turning bullish on this indicator.
RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:
100.09 - Highest High in last 50-Days
100.03 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
98.40 - Highest High in last 10-Days
97.28 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
93.85 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
93.34 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
93.07 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
91.77 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
90.36 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
90.13 - High
90.11 - Last Price
89.10 - Low
89.10 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
89.01 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
88.41 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
85.82 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
78.47 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
Natural Gas:
Natural Gas contracts are higher this morning reversing the weaker tone seen during the prior session. Trend indicators are indicating a bullish market. However the overall strength of the trend, as indicated by the ADX, is weak and should be watched as a result. Momentum readings are also bullish. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days and should be watched.
TREND INDICATORS:
Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices cross above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is falling, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. However, the weak ADX indicates that the current trend is deteriorating and may possibly reverse. Look for choppiness ahead.
MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days.
RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 62.90). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 62.90 the market is somewhat overbought. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of weakness from this indicator before getting too bearish here.
VOLATILITY INDICATORS:
Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Volatility also appears to be decreasing, as evidenced by a smaller distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions. Despite this overbought condition the market may become more overbought before turning lower. As a result, the market will look for additional weakening in prices before turning bearish on this indicator.
RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:
8.616 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
8.480 - Highest High in last 10-Days
8.480 - Highest High in last 50-Days
8.194 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
8.173 - High
8.173 - Last Price
8.135 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
8.129 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
8.110 - Low
7.701 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
7.640 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
7.588 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
7.348 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
7.231 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
7.171 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
6.926 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
6.914 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
MCXARUN
9994500540
Bullion
COMEX Gold:
Gold trading is weaker in ACCESS trade this morning extending the prior sessions weaker close. Trend indicators are indicating a bullish market. However the overall strength of the trend, as indicated by the ADX, is weak and should be watched as a result. MACD also has issued a bearish signal, suggesting a reversal in the current trend.
TREND INDICATORS:
Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. However, despite prices trading below the moving average line, the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session. If prices trade above the moving average then the trend will be clearly established as up. However, this weakness in the price will need to be watched. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a weak bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is falling, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. However, the weak ADX indicates that the current trend is deteriorating and may possibly reverse. Look for choppiness ahead.
MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: MACD has issued a bearish signal, suggesting a reversal of the current upward trend, based on the 50 day simple moving average. However, MACD tends to be better at picking bottoms than tops and the signal may be viewed with caution.
RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 59.82). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 59.82 the market is somewhat overbought. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of weakness from this indicator before getting too bearish here.
VOLATILITY INDICATORS:
Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Volatility also appears to be decreasing, as evidenced by a smaller distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions. The market is overbought and appears to be weakening. Look for a potential top in this area.
RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:
921.50 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
916.10 - Highest High in last 10-Days
916.10 - Highest High in last 50-Days
891.53 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
885.93 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
881.90 - High
879.33 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
875.50 - Last Price
870.60 - Low
857.80 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
849.81 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
831.59 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
828.81 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
801.62 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
787.89 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
773.40 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
729.89 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
COMEX Silver:
Silver futures are weaker this morning reversing the firmer tone seen during the prior session. Trend indicators are indicating a bullish market. However the overall strength of the trend, as indicated by the ADX, is weak and should be watched as a result. Momentum readings are also bullish. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days and should be watched.
TREND INDICATORS:
Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices cross below this moving average. However, despite prices trading below the moving average line, the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session. If prices trade above the moving average then the trend will be clearly established as up. However, this weakness in the price will need to be watched. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a weak bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is falling, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. However, the weak ADX indicates that the current trend is deteriorating and may possibly reverse. Look for choppiness ahead.
MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days.
RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 59.94). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 59.94 the market is somewhat overbought. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of weakness from this indicator before getting too bearish here.
VOLATILITY INDICATORS:
Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Volatility also appears to be decreasing, as evidenced by a smaller distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions. Despite this overbought condition the market may become more overbought before turning lower. As a result, the market will look for additional weakening in prices before turning bearish on this indicator.
RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:
16.759 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
16.715 - Highest High in last 10-Days
16.715 - Highest High in last 50-Days
16.112 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
16.009 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
15.965 - High
15.927 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
15.875 - Last Price
15.715 - Low
15.200 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
15.196 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
14.936 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
14.818 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
14.227 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
14.171 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
13.740 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
13.669 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
MCXARUN
9994500540
Gold trading is weaker in ACCESS trade this morning extending the prior sessions weaker close. Trend indicators are indicating a bullish market. However the overall strength of the trend, as indicated by the ADX, is weak and should be watched as a result. MACD also has issued a bearish signal, suggesting a reversal in the current trend.
TREND INDICATORS:
Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. However, despite prices trading below the moving average line, the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session. If prices trade above the moving average then the trend will be clearly established as up. However, this weakness in the price will need to be watched. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a weak bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is falling, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. However, the weak ADX indicates that the current trend is deteriorating and may possibly reverse. Look for choppiness ahead.
MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: MACD has issued a bearish signal, suggesting a reversal of the current upward trend, based on the 50 day simple moving average. However, MACD tends to be better at picking bottoms than tops and the signal may be viewed with caution.
RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 59.82). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 59.82 the market is somewhat overbought. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of weakness from this indicator before getting too bearish here.
VOLATILITY INDICATORS:
Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Volatility also appears to be decreasing, as evidenced by a smaller distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions. The market is overbought and appears to be weakening. Look for a potential top in this area.
RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:
921.50 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
916.10 - Highest High in last 10-Days
916.10 - Highest High in last 50-Days
891.53 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
885.93 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
881.90 - High
879.33 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
875.50 - Last Price
870.60 - Low
857.80 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
849.81 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
831.59 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
828.81 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
801.62 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
787.89 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
773.40 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
729.89 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
COMEX Silver:
Silver futures are weaker this morning reversing the firmer tone seen during the prior session. Trend indicators are indicating a bullish market. However the overall strength of the trend, as indicated by the ADX, is weak and should be watched as a result. Momentum readings are also bullish. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days and should be watched.
TREND INDICATORS:
Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices cross below this moving average. However, despite prices trading below the moving average line, the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session. If prices trade above the moving average then the trend will be clearly established as up. However, this weakness in the price will need to be watched. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a weak bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is falling, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. However, the weak ADX indicates that the current trend is deteriorating and may possibly reverse. Look for choppiness ahead.
MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days.
RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 59.94). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 59.94 the market is somewhat overbought. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of weakness from this indicator before getting too bearish here.
VOLATILITY INDICATORS:
Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Volatility also appears to be decreasing, as evidenced by a smaller distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions. Despite this overbought condition the market may become more overbought before turning lower. As a result, the market will look for additional weakening in prices before turning bearish on this indicator.
RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:
16.759 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
16.715 - Highest High in last 10-Days
16.715 - Highest High in last 50-Days
16.112 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
16.009 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
15.965 - High
15.927 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
15.875 - Last Price
15.715 - Low
15.200 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
15.196 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
14.936 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
14.818 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
14.227 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
14.171 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
13.740 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
13.669 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
MCXARUN
9994500540
WTI Crude Oil (CLG8) under 90.00 areas
We see –finally- Crude Oil taking on board the implications of a sharp US slowdown and possibly a recession. The actual debate between economists is to agree or not if the US economy is already in recession.
WTI Crude Oil (CLG8) under 90.00 areas, the focus has to be towards $87.00/bbl.
Nymex Natural Gas (NGG8) finally bowing to the pressure and trading below $7.90. We still believe the 7.70/8.00 area is a good entry point.
Note: the support/resistance levels used in the matrix’s of this document are levels derived from yesterday high, low and close. Reference in the text to other support/resistance levels will occur.
CRUDE
LCOH8
Resist.
89.23
89.23
89.23
87.87
89.23
89.23
89.23
Support
50dMA
91.8
10dMA
90.84
Thanks to saxo bank
MCXARUN
9994500540
WTI Crude Oil (CLG8) under 90.00 areas, the focus has to be towards $87.00/bbl.
Nymex Natural Gas (NGG8) finally bowing to the pressure and trading below $7.90. We still believe the 7.70/8.00 area is a good entry point.
Note: the support/resistance levels used in the matrix’s of this document are levels derived from yesterday high, low and close. Reference in the text to other support/resistance levels will occur.
CRUDE
LCOH8
Resist.
89.23
89.23
89.23
87.87
89.23
89.23
89.23
Support
50dMA
91.8
10dMA
90.84
Thanks to saxo bank
MCXARUN
9994500540
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