Energy

Crude-oil futures rose for a fourth day on Thursday to above $97 a barrel after government reports showed U.S. crude inventories fell for a sixth week and as geopolitical tensions escalated after former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto was assassinated.

U.S. crude inventories fell by 3.3 million barrels to 293.6 million barrels in the week ending Dec. 21, the lowest in nearly three years, U.S. Energy Information Administration reported on Thursday. Analysts polled by Dow Jones Newswires were expecting a drawdown of 1.2 million barrels.

U.S. crude inventories have fallen more than 20 million barrels since the week ending Nov. 9. U.S. is the world's largest crude-oil consumer, accounting for nearly a quarter of the world's production.

Pakistani opposition leader Bhutto died after a suicide bombing that also killed at least 20 others after a political rally in Rawalpindi, Pakistan. Pakistan, while not a significant oil producer, holds nuclear weapons, and the death of Bhutto could increase tensions in the region.

Weekly Crude Oil Inventory:

US Weekly distillate stocks: Actual -2.800m; Reuters Survey -0.800m; Prior -2.100m

US Weekly crude oil stocks: Actual -3.300m; Reuters Survey -1.000m; Prior -7.600m

US Weekly gasoline stocks: Actual 0.700m; Reuters Survey 1.600m; Prior 3.000m

Impact: Overall data is supportive for higher energy prices

MCX Crude Oil Jan (Daily Chart)



Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies have turned bullish; will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are increasing from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 18-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Crude Oil Jan: sell at 3820-3830 for target of 3768 and 3706 with stop loss below 3865

MCX Natural gas Jan (Daily Chart)



Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are still bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Natural Gas Jan: buy at Buy at 274-75 for the target of 285 and 290 with stop loss at 270.40

MCXARUN
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precious metals

Precious metals zoomed in MCX, COMEX and spot markets reflecting the trends in international markets supported by Bhutto death, positive consumer confidence data and increase in jobless claims.

Gold rallied on Thursday tracing the gains in oil and a weak dollar. International spot gold currently quoted at $827 troy an ounce, up by $3 Oil traded at $97.20 per barrel. The euro was up against the dollar.

Benazir Bhutto, the former Prime Minister of Pakistan, was killed on 27th Dec 2007, along with at least 14 of her supporters in an intentional suicidal attack. Bhutto led the opposition against President Musharraf and her death adds even more fuel to what was already a highly flammable political situation.

US Economic data gave a support to higher bullion prices as consumer confidences was les then expected and Job less claim data increased.

The U.S. Commerce Department said that durable good orders were up .1% in November, less than expected. Excluding transportation, orders were down .7% in November.

The Conference Board's index of consumer confidence increased from 87.8 to 88.6 in December, stronger than expected.

MCX Gold Feb (Daily Chart)

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies have turned bullish; will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are increasing from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 18-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Gold Feb: Buy at 10455-475 for the target of 10550 and 10600 with stop loss at 10430

MCX Silver Mar (Daily Chart)

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies have turned bullish; will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are increasing from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 18-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Silver March: Buy at 19200-250 for the target of 19340 and 19520 with stop loss at 19120

MCXARUN
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trade signals

Crude Oil:

Front month crude oil is weaker in ACCESS trade this morning reversing the firmer tone seen during the prior session. Trend indicators are indicating a bullish market and the overall strength of the trend is strong, as indicated by the ADX. Momentum readings are also in bullish territory.

TREND INDICATORS:

Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. However, despite prices trading above the moving average line, the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session. If prices trade below the moving average then the trend will be clearly established as up. However, this strength in the price will need to be watched. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a weak bearish bias.

Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is rising, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. As the ADX is rising it indicates that the current trend is strong and should remain intact. Look for the current trend to continue.

MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory.

RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 60.16). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 60.16 the market is somewhat overbought. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of weakness from this indicator before getting too bearish here.

VOLATILITY INDICATORS:

Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Despite this overbought condition the market may become more overbought before turning lower. As a result, the market will look for additional weakening in prices before turning bearish on this indicator.

RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:

99.29 - Highest High in last 50-Days
96.54 - Highest High in last 10-Days
96.09 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
95.97 - High
95.94 - Last Price
95.63 - Low
95.35 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
93.59 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
92.63 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
92.44 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
91.98 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
89.15 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
88.60 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
86.11 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
84.91 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
84.68 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
76.09 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average

Natural Gas:

Natural Gas contracts are higher this morning extending the prior sessions gains. Trend indicators are indicating a bearish market. However the overall strength of the trend, as indicated by the ADX, is weak and should be watched as a result.

TREND INDICATORS:

Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. However, even though prices are trading above the moving average, the moving average slope is down from the previous session. Should prices continue higher the moving average will eventually follow and then the up trend will be more clearly established. However, this weakness in the moving average will need to be watched. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a weak bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session indicating further weakness. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bearish bias.

Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session indicating further weakness. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bearish bias.

ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is falling, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is down. However, the weak ADX indicates that the current trend is deteriorating and may possibly reverse. Look for a choppiness ahead.

MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory.

RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 46.46). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 46.46 the market is somewhat oversold. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of strength from this indicator before getting too bullish here.

VOLATILITY INDICATORS:

Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating oversold prices. Volatility also appears to be decreasing, as evidenced by a smaller distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions.

RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:

8.712 - Highest High in last 50-Days
7.529 - Highest High in last 10-Days
7.494 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
7.407 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
7.296 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
7.279 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
7.188 - High
7.180 - Last Price
7.173 - Low
7.163 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
7.139 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
7.129 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
7.074 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
6.973 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
6.963 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
6.914 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
6.640 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days

MCXARUN
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trade signals

Copper:

Copper trade on ACCESS is showing higher prices in recent activity extending the prior sessions gains. Trend indicators are indicating a bearish market and the overall strength of the trend is strong, as indicated by the ADX.

TREND INDICATORS:

Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices cross above this moving average. However, despite prices trading above the moving average line, the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session. If prices trade below the moving average then the trend will be clearly established as up. However, this strength in the price will need to be watched. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a weak bearish bias.

ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is rising, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is down. As the ADX is rising this indicates that the current trend is strong and should remain intact. Look for the current trend to continue.

MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory.

RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 57.50). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 57.50 the market is somewhat overbought. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of weakness from this indicator before getting too bearish here.

VOLATILITY INDICATORS:

Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Volatility also appears to be increasing, as evidenced by a larger distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions. Despite this overbought condition the market may become more overbought before turning lower. As a result, the market will look for additional weakening in prices before turning bearish on this indicator.

RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:

3.6500 - Highest High in last 50-Days
3.3833 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
3.3173 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
3.2316 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
3.2050 - Highest High in last 10-Days
3.1840 - Last Price
3.1840 - High
3.1750 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
3.1692 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
3.1550 - Low
3.1415 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
3.0446 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
3.0219 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
2.9615 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
2.8714 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
2.8530 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
2.8530 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days

MCXARUN
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trade signals

COMEX Gold:

Gold trading is weaker in ACCESS trade this morning reversing the firmer tone seen during the prior session. Trend indicators have moved from a bullish to a neutral price pattern.

TREND INDICATORS:

Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is rising, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. As the ADX is rising it indicates that the current trend is strong and should remain intact. Look for the current trend to continue.

MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory.

RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 59.67). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 59.67 the market is somewhat overbought. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of weakness from this indicator before getting too bearish here.

VOLATILITY INDICATORS:

Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Despite this overbought condition the market may become more overbought before turning lower. As a result, the market will look for additional weakening in prices before turning bearish on this indicator.

RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:

848.00 - Highest High in last 50-Days
830.20 - Highest High in last 10-Days
828.80 - High
828.04 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
826.20 - Last Price
825.20 - Low
824.07 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
818.00 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
810.56 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
810.49 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
802.60 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
797.90 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
789.60 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
787.86 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
757.51 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
749.00 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
714.23 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average

COMEX Silver:

Silver futures are weaker this morning reversing the firmer tone seen during the prior session. Trend indicators are showing the market in a neutral price pattern at present.

TREND INDICATORS:

Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. However, despite prices trading above the moving average line, the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session. If prices trade below the moving average then the trend will be clearly established as up. However, this strength in the price will need to be watched. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a weak bearish bias.

Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is falling, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. However, the weak ADX indicates that the current trend is deteriorating and may possibly reverse. Look for choppiness ahead.

MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory.

RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 57.11). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 57.11 the market is somewhat overbought. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of weakness from this indicator before getting too bearish here.

VOLATILITY INDICATORS:

Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. The market is overbought and appears to be encountering resistance near recent highs. Look for a potential top in this area.

RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:

16.275 - Highest High in last 50-Days
15.020 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
14.900 - Highest High in last 10-Days
14.830 - High
14.800 - Last Price
14.765 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
14.765 - Low
14.738 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
14.522 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
14.493 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
14.371 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
14.174 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
13.892 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
13.740 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
13.695 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
13.493 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
13.325 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days

MCXARUN
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outlook

February gold closed higher on Thursday as it extends last Friday's rally above the 20-day moving average crossing at 808.10.
The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 844.20 is the next
upside target. From a broad perspective, February gold needs to close above 855.00 or below 780.40 to confirm a breakout of
the late-fall trading range and point the direction of the next trending move. First resistance is today's high crossing at 835.50
then the reaction high crossing at 844.20. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 810.90 then the 20-day moving
average crossing at 808.10.

March silver closed slightly lower on Thursday and as it consolidated some of this week's rally but remains above the 20-day
moving average crossing at 14.456. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI
remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, this month's
high crossing at 14.975 is the next upside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 14.905 then the reaction high
crossing at 14.975. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.456 then the 10-day moving average crossing at
14.369.

February crude oil closed higher on Thursday as it extended this week's rally and closed above minor resistance crossing at
94.72. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends this week's rally, November's high crossing
at 98.12 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 91.04 would temper the near-term
friendly outlook in the market. A close below the reaction low crossing at 85.60 would renew the decline off November's high.
First resistance is today's high crossing at 97.79. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 98.12. First support is the
10-day moving average crossing at 92.77 then the 20-day moving average crossing at 91.04.

February Henry natural gas closed slightly higher on Thursday but remains below the 10-day moving average crossing at 7.224.
The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that
sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February renews the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing
at 6.801 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 7.608 are needed to confirm that a short-term
low has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 7.380 then the reaction high crossing at 7.608. First support is
today's low crossing at 6.950 then weekly support crossing at 6.801.

MCXARUN
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GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS

Technical break out, thin market conditions, a weaker US dollar and stronger crude oil prices resulted in gold and silver edging higher. Crude oil has risen on expectations that US weekly crude oil inventories will fall. If crude oil inventories fall sharply then it can easily edge past $100. There is lack of major market moving news, volumes are low and even a small short covering results in prices rising.

Crude oil got support from the ongoing war between Turkey and Kurdish rebels in Northern Iraq. Unless geopolitical tensions ease crude oil will continue to rise. Higher crude oil prices and higher gold prices is more of a US dollar collapse story which will continue in the first quarter of 2008. The key question will be what will be top in crude oil, if it breaks and floats over $100.

Technical picture in gold, silver and crude oil is bullish. However they could fall, without altering the bullish trend as and when there is profit taking.

GOLD -- FEBRURAY FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT:$823

Gold targets $848 and $888 in short term as long as it floats over $812. Gold has to close below $812 to be in bearish zone.

MCXARUN
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trend indicater

Crude Oil:

Front month crude oil is weaker in ACCESS trade this morning reversing the firmer tone seen during the prior session. Trend indicators are indicating a bearish market. However the overall strength of the trend, as indicated by the ADX, is weak and should be watched as a result.

TREND INDICATORS:

Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. However, despite prices trading above the moving average line, the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session. If prices trade below the moving average then the trend will be clearly established as up. However, this strength in the price will need to be watched. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a weak bearish bias.

Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is falling, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. However, the weak ADX indicates that the current trend is deteriorating and may possibly reverse. Look for choppiness ahead.

MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory.

RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 54.33). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 54.33 the market is somewhat overbought. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of weakness from this indicator before getting too bearish here.

VOLATILITY INDICATORS:

Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Volatility also appears to be decreasing, as evidenced by a smaller distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions. Despite this overbought condition the market may become more overbought before turning lower. As a result, the market will look for additional weakening in prices before turning bearish on this indicator.

RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:

99.29 - Highest High in last 50-Days
94.85 - Highest High in last 10-Days
94.72 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
93.84 - High
93.15 - Last Price
92.81 - Low
92.71 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
92.51 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
92.09 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
92.08 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
91.78 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
88.70 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
87.92 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
86.69 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
84.68 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
84.42 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
75.70 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average

Natural Gas:

Natural Gas contracts are higher this morning extending the prior sessions gains. Trend indicators are indicating a bearish market. However the overall strength of the trend, as indicated by the ADX, is weak and should be watched as a result.

TREND INDICATORS:

Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session indicating further weakness. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bearish bias.

Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session indicating further weakness. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bearish bias.

ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is falling, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is down. However, the weak ADX indicates that the current trend is deteriorating and may possibly reverse. Look for a choppiness ahead.

MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory.

RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 46.72). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 46.72 the market is somewhat oversold. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of strength from this indicator before getting too bullish here.

VOLATILITY INDICATORS:

Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating oversold prices. Volatility also appears to be decreasing, as evidenced by a smaller distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions.

RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:

8.712 - Highest High in last 50-Days
7.605 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
7.529 - Highest High in last 10-Days
7.505 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
7.421 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
7.308 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
7.213 - High
7.198 - Last Price
7.175 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
7.161 - Low
7.159 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
7.127 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
7.051 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
6.954 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
6.914 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
6.866 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
6.640 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days

MCXARUN
9994500540

trend indicater

Copper:

Copper trade on ACCESS is showing higher prices in recent activity extending the prior sessions gains. Trend indicators are indicating a bearish market. However the overall strength of the trend, as indicated by the ADX, is weak and should be watched as a result.

TREND INDICATORS:

Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Furthermore the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating strength. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Furthermore the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session indicating further weakness. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bearish bias.

ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is falling, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is down. However, the weak ADX indicates that the current trend is deteriorating and may possibly reverse. Look for a choppiness ahead.

MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory.

RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 55.58). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 55.58 the market is somewhat overbought. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of weakness from this indicator before getting too bearish here.

VOLATILITY INDICATORS:

Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Volatility also appears to be increasing, as evidenced by a larger distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions. Despite this overbought condition the market may become more overbought before turning lower. As a result, the market will look for additional weakening in prices before turning bearish on this indicator.

RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:

3.7085 - Highest High in last 50-Days
3.3806 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
3.3235 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
3.1954 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
3.1927 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
3.1595 - High
3.1595 - Highest High in last 10-Days
3.1520 - Last Price
3.1152 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
3.1100 - Low
3.0717 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
3.0269 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
2.9990 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
2.9549 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
2.8747 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
2.8530 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
2.8530 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days

MCXARUN
9994500540

trend indicater

COMEX Gold:

Gold trading is higher in ACCESS trade this morning extending the prior sessions gains. Trend indicators are indicating a bullish market. However the overall strength of the trend, as indicated by the ADX, is weak and should be watched as a result.

TREND INDICATORS:

Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is falling, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. However, the weak ADX indicates that the current trend is deteriorating and may possibly reverse. Look for choppiness ahead.

MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bearish territory. However, the recent upturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term rally over the next few days.

RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 56.12). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 56.12 the market is somewhat overbought. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of weakness from this indicator before getting too bearish here.

VOLATILITY INDICATORS:

Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Despite this overbought condition the market may become more overbought before turning lower. As a result, the market will look for additional weakening in prices before turning bearish on this indicator.

RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:

848.00 - Highest High in last 50-Days
823.02 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
822.80 - Highest High in last 10-Days
817.30 - High
816.10 - Last Price
814.79 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
812.20 - Low
811.57 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
808.47 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
807.92 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
799.96 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
798.35 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
790.12 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
789.60 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
754.61 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
749.00 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
712.40 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average

COMEX Silver:

Silver futures are higher this morning extending the prior sessions gains. Trend indicators have turned from a bearish to a bullish bias. However the overall strength of the trend, as indicated by the ADX, is weak and should be watched as a result.

TREND INDICATORS:

Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. However, despite prices trading above the moving average line, the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session. If prices trade below the moving average then the trend will be clearly established as up. However, this strength in the price will need to be watched. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a weak bearish bias.

Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices cross above this moving average. Furthermore the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is falling, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. However, the weak ADX indicates that the current trend is deteriorating and may possibly reverse. Look for choppiness ahead.

MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bearish territory. However, the recent upturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term rally over the next few days.

RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 52.72). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 52.72 the market is somewhat overbought. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of weakness from this indicator before getting too bearish here.

VOLATILITY INDICATORS:

Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Volatility also appears to be decreasing, as evidenced by a smaller distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions. Despite this overbought condition the market may become more overbought before turning lower. As a result, the market will look for additional weakening in prices before turning bearish on this indicator.

RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:

16.275 - Highest High in last 50-Days
14.975 - Highest High in last 10-Days
14.947 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
14.689 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
14.555 - High
14.550 - Last Price
14.489 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
14.459 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
14.455 - Low
14.446 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
14.366 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
14.171 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
13.912 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
13.740 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
13.659 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
13.473 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
13.325 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days

MCXARUN
9994500540

Base Metals

Copper rose in MCX and Shanghai as investors speculated that demand would continue to rise in China, the world's largest user of the industrial metal.

Refined copper imports gained 56 percent in November from a year earlier, the Beijing-based customs office said Dec 24. Shanghai copper may end the year little changed, after five years of gains, on concerns that an economic slowdown in the U.S. following a housing slump will spread to the rest of the world.

China will abolish import duties on copper cathode and anode, as well as alumina from Jan. 1, the Ministry of Finance said Wednesday. Import duties on copper cathode and anode are now at 2%, while that on alumina is at 3%.The government hopes that by curbing exports, reduced domestic production will help save energy and protect the resources of the world's biggest metal consumer.

Refined copper imports from Chile are exempt from duties, based on a free trade agreement between the two countries, which took effect Oct. 1, 2006.

China's alumina output in January-November jumped 49% on year to 17.77 million metric tons, but the country's biggest alumina and aluminum producer Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd. still raised its spot alumina prices to CNY4,200/ton earlier this month, citing tight supply.

The expanding output capacity of the world's biggest alumina producer already caused both domestic and international bauxite prices to surge. Bauxite is the ore used to make alumina, which is in turn used to make aluminum.


MCX Copper Feb (Daily Chart)

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies have turned bullish; will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are increasing from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 18-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Copper Feb: Buy at 274-275 for the target of 282 and 284 with stop loss at 270.50

MCX Zinc Jan (Daily Chart)

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies have turned bullish; will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are increasing from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 18-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Zinc Jan: Buy at 96.00-95.50 for the target of 98.00 and 99.20 with stop loss at 94.40


Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies have turned bullish; will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are increasing from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 18-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Nickel Jan: Buy at 1050-1045 for the target of 1080 and 1110 with stop loss 1035

MCX Lead Dec (Daily Chart)

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies have turned bullish; will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are increasing from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 18-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Lead Jan: Buy at 105 –104.50 for the target of 107 and 108.80 with stop loss at 103.40

MCXARUN
9994500540

Energy

Oil prices jumped Wednesday on supply concerns stoked by a new round of Turkish airstrikes in northern Iraq and a growing belief that domestic oil inventories fell last week.

Turkey's military said its warplanes bombed eight suspected Kurdish rebel positions in northern Iraq on Wednesday. It was the third Turkish strike inside Iraq in less than two weeks. Oil traders worry that the rebels could cut oil supplies from Iraq in retaliation.

The new attacks came as oil investors awaited inventory data from the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration that is expected to show crude supplies fell by 1.2 million barrels last week, the sixth straight weekly decline.

The inventory numbers will be released on Thursday this week, a day late due to the Christmas holiday.

The U.S. Dollar Index fell to a 1 1/2-week low Wednesday, amid sharp gains in the euro, and a rally in the Canadian dollar to a 1-month high. The Dollar Index lost 0.6% to 77.140, the lowest level seen since Dec. 14. The index has now lost 0.8% amid a 3 session losing streak, and since it closed at a high of 77.794 on Dec. 20.

Expected Crude Oil Inventory:

In its weekly report, the EIA is expected to show that inventories of distillates, which include heating oil and diesel fuel, fell by 600,000 barrels last week. Gasoline stockpiles are expected to rise by 1.6 million barrels, while refinery activity is expected to grow by 0.6-percentage point to 88.4 percent of capacity.

MCX Crude Oil Jan (Daily Chart)

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are turning bearish but not at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day and 18 days moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative. Over all technical suggest a bullish market and prices are expected to go further up.

Recommendations:

MCX Crude Oil Jan: Buy at 3740-20 for target of 3855 and 3920 with stop loss below 3680

MCX Natural gas Jan (Daily Chart)

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are turning bearish but not at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day and 18 days moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative. Over all technical suggest a bullish market and prices are expected to go further up.

Recommendations:

MCX Natural Gas Jan: Buy at 280for the target of 315 and 325 with stop loss at 270

Bullion

Gold rose in MCX above Rs. 10450 per 10 grams after a gain in crude oil boosted the appeal of the precious metal as a hedge against accelerating consumer prices. Gold for February delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange was little trading above $820 an ounce.

The dollar dropped as much as 0.6 percent against the euro on Wednesday after gaining 1.6 percent in the past two weeks. Investment in the StreetTracks Gold Trust, an exchange-traded fund backed by bullion, has climbed to a record 617 metric tons. Before today, the precious metal advanced 28 percent this year as the dollar fell 8.4 percent against the euro.

Gold futures also rose on Comex supported by copper's rally and the US dollar's slump on a day of holiday-thinned trading. US and UK markets were closed on Tuesday for Christmas holiday.

MCX Gold Feb (Daily Chart)

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies have turned bullish; will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are increasing from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 18-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Gold Feb: Buy at 10420-400 for the target of 10480 and 10555 with stop loss at 10365



MCX Silver Mar (Daily Chart)



Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies have turned bullish; will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are increasing from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 18-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Silver March: Buy at 19380-340 for the target of 19640 and 19780 with stop loss at 19240

compare chart

Gold, silver and platinium

click chart to enlarge






MCXARUN
9994500540

old chart

Previous Update: Friday, December 21, 2007 - UPTURN - GOLD ABOVE $US 810
Previous Update: Friday, December 14, 2007 - DOWNTURN - GOLD BELOW $US 795
Previous Update: Tuesday, December 11, 2007 - GOLD ABOVE $US 810
Previous Update: Monday, December 10, 2007 - GOLD ABOVE $US 805
Previous Update: Tuesday, December 4, 2007 - UPTURN - GOLD ABOVE $US 800
Previous Update: Friday, November 30, 2007 - GOLD BELOW $US 785
Previous Update: Thursday, November 29, 2007 - GOLD BELOW $US 800
Previous Update: Wednesday, November 28, 2007 - DOWNTURN - GOLD BELOW $US 805
Previous Update: Monday, November 26, 2007 - GOLD ABOVE $US 825
Previous Update: Friday, November 23, 2007 - GOLD ABOVE $US 820
Previous Update: Wednesday, November 21, 2007 - UPTURN - GOLD ABOVE $US 795
Previous Update: Monday, November 19, 2007 - GOLD BELOW $US 780
Previous Update: Thursday, November 15, 2007 - GOLD BELOW $US 790
Previous Update: Tuesday, November 13, 2007 - GOLD BELOW $US 800
Previous Update: Monday, November 12, 2007 - DOWNTURN - GOLD BELOW $US 810
Previous Update: Thursday, November 8, 2007 - GOLD ABOVE $US 835 - NEW BULL MARKET HIGH
Previous Update: Wednesday, November 7, 2007 - GOLD ABOVE $US 830
Previous Update: Tuesday, November 6, 2007 - GOLD ABOVE $US 820
Previous Update: Monday, November 5, 2007 - GOLD ABOVE $US 810
Previous Update: Friday, November 2, 2007 - *** GOLD ABOVE $US 805 ***
Previous Update: Wednesday, October 31, 2007 - GOLD ABOVE $US 795
Previous Update: Monday, October 29, 2007 - GOLD ABOVE $US 790
Previous Update: Friday, October 26, 2007 - GOLD ABOVE $US 780
Previous Update: Thursday, October 25, 2007 - GOLD ABOVE $US 765
Previous Update: Thursday, October 18, 2007 - GOLD ABOVE $US 760
Previous Update: Monday, October 15, 2007 - GOLD ABOVE $US 755
Previous Update: Thursday, October 11, 2007 - UPTURN - GOLD ABOVE $US 750
Previous Update: Tuesday, October 2, 2007 - DOWNTURN - GOLD BELOW $US 730
Previous Update: Monday, October 1, 2007 - GOLD ABOVE $US 745
Previous Update: Friday, September 28, 2007 - GOLD ABOVE $US 740
Previous Update: Thursday, September 20, 2007 - GOLD ABOVE $US 730
Previous Update: Wednesday, September 19, 2007 - GOLD ABOVE $US 720
Previous Update: Monday, September 17, 2007 - GOLD ABOVE $US 715
Previous Update: Tuesday, September 11, 2007 - GOLD ABOVE $US 710
Previous Update: Monday, September 10, 2007 - GOLD ABOVE $US 705
Previous Update: Friday, September 7, 2007 - GOLD ABOVE $US 700
Previous Update: Thursday, September 6, 2007 - GOLD ABOVE $US 695
Previous Update: Tuesday, September 4, 2007 - GOLD ABOVE $US 685
Previous Update: Friday, August 31, 2007 - GOLD ABOVE $US 675
Previous Update: Friday, August 24, 2007 - UPTURN - GOLD ABOVE $US 665
Previous Update: Thursday, August 16, 2007 - GOLD BELOW $US 650
Previous Update: Thursday, July 26, 2007 - DOWNTURN - GOLD BELOW $US 665
Previous Update: Friday, July 20, 2007 - GOLD ABOVE $US 680
Previous Update: Thursday, July 19, 2007 - GOLD ABOVE $US 675
Previous Update: Wednesday, July 18, 2007 - GOLD ABOVE $US 670
Previous Update: Thursday, July 12, 2007 - GOLD ABOVE $US 665
Previous Update: Monday, July 9, 2007 - UPTURN - GOLD ABOVE $US 660
Previous Update: Tuesday, June 26, 2007 - GOLD BELOW $US 645
Previous Update: Friday, June 8, 2007 - DOWNTURN - GOLD BELOW $US 650
Previous Update: Friday, June 1, 2007 - UPTURN - GOLD ABOVE $US 670
Previous Update: Thursday, May 24, 2007 - GOLD BELOW $US 655
Previous Update: Thursday, May 17, 2007 - GOLD BELOW $US 660
Previous Update: Wednesday, May 16, 2007 - GOLD BELOW $US 665
Previous Update: Thursday, May 10, 2007 - DOWNTURN - GOLD BELOW $US 670
Previous Update: Monday, May 7, 2007 - UPTURN - GOLD ABOVE $US 690
Previous Update: Thursday, April 26, 2007 - DOWNTURN - GOLD BELOW $US 675
Previous Update: Monday, April 16, 2007 - GOLD ABOVE $US 690
Previous Update: Friday, April 13, 2007 - GOLD ABOVE $US 685
Previous Update: Tuesday, April 10, 2007 - GOLD ABOVE $US 675
Previous Update: Wednesday, April 4, 2007 - GOLD ABOVE $US 670
Previous Update: Wednesday, March 28, 2007 - GOLD ABOVE $US 665
Previous Update: Wednesday, March 21, 2007 - GOLD ABOVE $US 660
Previous Update: Thursday, March 8, 2007 - UPTURN - GOLD ABOVE $US 655
Previous Update: Monday, March 5, 2007 - GOLD BELOW $US 640
Previous Update: Friday, March 2, 2007 - GOLD BELOW $US 645
Previous Update: Thursday, March 1, 2007 - DOWNTURN - GOLD BELOW $US 670
Previous Update: Monday, February 26, 2007 - GOLD ABOVE $US 685
Previous Update: Wednesday, February 21, 2007 - GOLD ABOVE $US 680
Previous Update: Friday, February 9, 2007 - GOLD ABOVE $US 665
Previous Update: Thursday, February 1, 2007 - GOLD ABOVE $US 655
Previous Update: Wednesday, January 31, 2007 - GOLD ABOVE $US 650
Previous Update: Tuesday, January 23, 2007 - GOLD ABOVE $US 645
Previous Update: Friday, January 19, 2007 - GOLD ABOVE $US 635
Previous Update: Wednesday, January 17, 2007 - GOLD ABOVE $US 630
Previous Update: Friday, January 12, 2007 - UPTURN - GOLD ABOVE $US 625
Previous Update: Friday, January 5, 2007 - DOWNTURN - GOLD BELOW $US 610
Previous Update: Thursday, December 28, 2006 - UPTURN - GOLD ABOVE $US 635
Previous Update: Friday, December 15, 2006 - GOLD BELOW $US 615
Previous Update: Friday, December 8, 2006 - DOWNTURN - GOLD BELOW $US 630
Previous Update: Thursday, November 30, 2006 - GOLD ABOVE $US 645
Previous Update: Monday, November 27, 2006 - GOLD ABOVE $US 640
Previous Update: Thursday, November 9, 2006 - GOLD ABOVE $US 635
Previous Update: Thursday, November 2, 2006 - GOLD ABOVE $US 625
Previous Update: Wednesday, November 1, 2006 - GOLD ABOVE $US 615
Previous Update: Monday, October 30, 2006 - GOLD ABOVE $US 605
Previous Update: Thursday, October 26, 2006 - UPTURN - GOLD ABOVE $US 595
Previous Update: Monday, October 23, 2006 - DOWNTURN - GOLD BELOW $US 580
Previous Update: Thursday, October 19, 2006 - GOLD ABOVE $US 595
Previous Update: Monday, October 16, 2006 - GOLD ABOVE $US 590
Previous Update: Friday, October 13, 2006 - UPTURN - GOLD ABOVE $US 585
Previous Update: Wednesday, October 4, 2006 - GOLD BELOW $US 565
Previous Update: Tuesday, October 3, 2006 - DOWNTURN - GOLD BELOW $US 580
Previous Update: Thursday, September 28, 2006 - GOLD ABOVE $US 605
Previous Update: Wednesday, September 27, 2006 - UPTURN - GOLD ABOVE $US 595
Previous Update: Friday, September 15, 2006 - GOLD BELOW $US 580
Previous Update: Thursday, September 14, 2006 - GOLD BELOW $US 585
Previous Update: Tuesday, September 12, 2006 - GOLD BELOW $US 590
Previous Update: Monday, September 11, 2006 - GOLD BELOW $US 595
Previous Update: Friday, September 8, 2006 - GOLD BELOW $US 615
Previous Update: Thursday, September 7, 2006 - DOWNTURN - GOLD BELOW $US 620
Previous Update: Tuesday, September 5, 2006 - UPTURN - GOLD ABOVE $US 640
Previous Update: Friday, August 18, 2006 - GOLD BELOW $US 615
Previous Update: Thursday, August 17, 2006 - GOLD BELOW $US 620
Previous Update: Tuesday, August 15, 2006 - GOLD BELOW $US 625
Previous Update: Monday, August 14, 2006 - GOLD BELOW $US 630
Previous Update: Thursday, August 10, 2006 - DOWNTURN - GOLD BELOW $US 635
Previous Update: Wednesday, August 2, 2006 - GOLD ABOVE $US 650
Previous Update: Tuesday, August 1, 2006 - GOLD ABOVE $US 645
Previous Update: Thursday, July 27, 2006 - UPTURN - GOLD ABOVE $US 630
Previous Update: Monday, July 24, 2006 - GOLD BELOW $US 615
Previous Update: Friday, July 21, 2006 - GOLD BELOW $US 625
Previous Update: Tuesday, July 18, 2006 - DOWNTURN - GOLD BELOW $US 630
Previous Update: Friday, July 14, 2006 - GOLD ABOVE $US 665
Previous Update: Wednesday, July 12, 2006 - GOLD ABOVE $US 650
Previous Update: Tuesday, July 11, 2006 - GOLD ABOVE $US 640
Previous Update: Thursday, July 6, 2006 - GOLD ABOVE $US 635
Previous Update: Wednesday, July 5, 2006 - GOLD ABOVE $US 625
Previous Update: Friday, June 30, 2006 - GOLD ABOVE $US 615
Previous Update: Wednesday, June 21, 2006 - UPTURN - GOLD ABOVE $US 585
Previous Update: Tuesday, June 13, 2006 - GOLD BELOW $US 565
Previous Update: Thursday, June 8, 2006 - GOLD BELOW $US 610
Previous Update: Thursday, June 1, 2006 - GOLD BELOW $US 630
Previous Update: Wednesday, May 24, 2006 - GOLD BELOW $US 640
Previous Update: Friday, May 19, 2006 - GOLD BELOW $US 660
Previous Update: Monday, May 15, 2006 - DOWNTURN - GOLD BELOW $US 685
Previous Update: Thursday, May 11, 2006 - GOLD ABOVE $US 720
Previous Update: Wednesday, May 10, 2006 - GOLD ABOVE $US 705
Previous Update: Tuesday, May 9, 2006 - *** GOLD ABOVE $US 700 ***
Previous Update: Friday, May 5, 2006 - GOLD ABOVE $US 680
Previous Update: Thursday, May 4, 2006 - GOLD ABOVE $US 675
Previous Update: Tuesday, May 2, 2006 - GOLD ABOVE $US 665
Previous Update: Monday, May 1, 2006 - GOLD ABOVE $US 660
Previous Update: Friday, April 28, 2006 - GOLD ABOVE $US 650
Previous Update: Wednesday, April 26, 2006 - GOLD ABOVE $US 635
Previous Update: Wednesday, April 19, 2006 - GOLD ABOVE $US 630
Previous Update: Tuesday, April 18, 2006 - GOLD ABOVE $US 620
Previous Update: Monday, April 17, 2006 - *** GOLD ABOVE $US 615 ***
Previous Update: Thursday, April 6, 2006 - GOLD ABOVE $US 595
Previous Update: Thursday, March 30, 2006 - GOLD ABOVE $US 585
Previous Update: Wednesday, March 29, 2006 - GOLD ABOVE $US 570
Previous Update: Monday, March 27, 2006 - GOLD ABOVE $US 565
Previous Update: Friday March 24, 2006 - UPTURN - GOLD ABOVE $US 560
Previous Update: Wednesday March 8, 2006 - GOLD BELOW $US 545
Previous Update: Tuesday March 7, 2006 - DOWNTURN - GOLD BELOW $US 555
Previous Update: Thursday March 2, 2006 - GOLD ABOVE $US 570
Previous Update: Wednesday March 1, 2006 - GOLD ABOVE $US 565
Previous Update: Tuesday February 28, 2006 - GOLD ABOVE $US 560
Previous Update: Friday February 24, 2006 -UPTURN - GOLD ABOVE $US 555
Previous Update: Tuesday February 13, 2006 - GOLD BELOW $US 540
Previous Update: Tuesday February 7, 2006 - DOWNTURN - GOLD BELOW $US 555
Previous Update: Tuesday January 31, 2006 - GOLD ABOVE $US 570
Previous Update: Monday January 30, 2006 - GOLD ABOVE $US 565
Previous Update: Wednesday January 25, 2006 - GOLD ABOVE $US 560
Previous Update: Friday January 13, 2006 - GOLD ABOVE $US 555
Previous Update: Monday January 9, 2006 - GOLD ABOVE $US 550
Previous Update: Friday January 6, 2006 - GOLD ABOVE $US 540
Previous Update: Wednesday January 4, 2006 - GOLD ABOVE $US 535
Previous Update: Tuesday January 3, 2006 - GOLD ABOVE $US 530
Previous Update: Thursday December 29, 2005 - GOLD ABOVE $US 515
Previous Update: Wednesday December 28, 2005 - UPTURN - GOLD ABOVE $US 510
Previous Update: Tuesday December 20, 2005 - GOLD BELOW $US 495
Previous Update: Thursday December 15, 2005 - GOLD BELOW $US 505
Previous Update: Wednesday December 14, 2005 - DOWNTURN - GOLD BELOW $US 510
Previous Update: Friday December 9, 2005 - GOLD ABOVE $US 525
Previous Update: Thursday December 8, 2005 - GOLD ABOVE $US 515
Previous Update: Tuesday December 6, 2005 - GOLD ABOVE $US 510
Previous Update: Monday December 5, 2005 - GOLD ABOVE $US 505
Previous Update: Thursday December 1, 2005 - *** GOLD ABOVE $US 500 ***
Previous Update: Monday November 28, 2005 - GOLD ABOVE $US 495
Previous Update: Tuesday November 22, 2005 - GOLD ABOVE $US 490
Previous Update: Thursday November 17, 2005 - GOLD ABOVE $US 485
Previous Update: Wednesday November 16, 2005 - UPTURN - GOLD ABOVE $US 475
Previous Update: Friday November 4, 2005 - DOWNTURN - GOLD BELOW $US 460
Previous Update: Monday October 10, 2005 - GOLD ABOVE $US 475
Previous Update: Thursday September 29, 2005 - GOLD ABOVE $US 470
Previous Update: Monday September 19, 2005 - GOLD ABOVE $US 465
Previous Update: Friday September 16, 2005 - GOLD ABOVE $US 460
Previous Update: Thursday September 15, 2005 - GOLD ABOVE $US 455
Previous Update: Friday September 9, 2005 - GOLD ABOVE $US 450
Previous Update: Thursday August 11, 2005 - UPTURN - GOLD ABOVE $US 445
Previous Update: Tuesday, July 5, 2005 - DOWNTURN - GOLD BELOW $US 425
Previous Update: Thursday, June 23, 2005 - GOLD ABOVE $US 440
Previous Update: Thursday, June 16, 2005 - UPTURN - GOLD ABOVE $US 435
Previous Update: Monday, May 16, 2005 - GOLD BELOW $US 420
Previous Update: Thursday, March 24, 2005 - GOLD BELOW $US 425
Previous Update: Wednesday, March 23, 2005 - DOWNTURN - GOLD BELOW $US 430
Previous Update: Friday, March 11, 2005 - GOLD ABOVE $US 445
Previous Update: Tuesday, March 8, 2005 - GOLD ABOVE $US 440
Previous Update: Friday, February 25, 2005 - GOLD ABOVE $US 435
Previous Update: Tuesday, February 22, 2005 - UPTURN - GOLD ABOVE $US 430
Previous Update: Friday, February 4, 2005 - GOLD BELOW $US 415
Previous Update: Friday, January 7, 2005 - GOLD BELOW $US 420
Previous Update: Thursday, January 6, 2005 - GOLD BELOW $US 425
Previous Update: Monday, January 3, 2005 - GOLD BELOW $US 430
Previous Update: Friday, December 10, 2004 - GOLD BELOW $US 435
Previous Update: Wednesday, December 8, 2004 - DOWNTURN - GOLD BELOW $US 440
Previous Update: Friday, December 3, 2004 - GOLD ABOVE $US 455
Previous Update: Monday, November 29, 2004 - GOLD ABOVE $US 450
Previous Update: Wednesday, November 17, 2004 - GOLD ABOVE $US 445
Previous Update: Tuesday, November 16, 2004 - GOLD ABOVE $US 440
Previous Update: Tuesday, November 9, 2004 - GOLD ABOVE $US 435
Previous Update: Thursday, November 4, 2004 - GOLD ABOVE $US 430
Previous Update: Monday, October 25, 2004 - GOLD ABOVE $US 425
Previous Update: Friday, October 8, 2004 - GOLD ABOVE $US 420
Previous Update: Thursday, September 30, 2004 - GOLD ABOVE $US 415
Previous Update: Friday, August 20, 2004 - GOLD ABOVE $US 410
Previous Update: Thursday, August 19, 2004 - UPTURN - GOLD ABOVE $US 405
Previous Update: Tuesday, July 27, 2004 - DOWNTURN - GOLD BELOW $US 390
Previous Update: Thursday, July 8, 2004 - GOLD ABOVE $US 405
Previous Update: Thursday, June 24, 2004 - GOLD ABOVE $US 400
Previous Update: Friday, June 18, 2004 - GOLD ABOVE $US 395
Previous Update: Thursday, May 27, 2004 - UPTURN - GOLD ABOVE $US 390
Previous Update: Thursday, May 13, 2004 - GOLD BELOW $US 375
Previous Update: Friday, May 7, 2004 - GOLD BELOW $US 380
Previous Update: Wednesday, April 28, 2004 - GOLD BELOW $US 390
Previous Update: Wednesday, April 21, 2004 - GOLD BELOW $US 395
Previous Update: Wednesday, April 14, 2004 - GOLD BELOW $US 400
Previous Update: Tuesday, April 13, 2004 - DOWNTURN - GOLD BELOW $US 410
Previous Update: Wednesday, March 31, 2004 - GOLD ABOVE $US 425
Previous Update: Tuesday, March 23, 2004 - GOLD AT $US 420
Previous Update: Monday, March 22, 2004 - GOLD ABOVE $US 415
Previous Update: Thursday, March 18, 2004 - UPTURN - GOLD ABOVE $US 410
Previous Update: Tuesday, March 2, 2004 - GOLD BELOW $US 395
Previous Update: Friday, February 20, 2004 - DOWNTURN - GOLD BELOW $US 400
Previous Update: Tuesday, February 17, 2004 - UPTURN - GOLD ABOVE $US 415
Previous Update: Thursday, January 29, 2004 - GOLD BELOW $US 400
Previous Update: Thursday, January 15, 2004 - DOWNTURN - GOLD BELOW $US 410
Previous Update: Friday, January 9, 2004 - GOLD ABOVE $US 425
Previous Update: Monday, January 5, 2004 - GOLD ABOVE $US 420
Previous Update: Tuesday, December 30, 2003 - GOLD ABOVE $US 415
Previous Update: Wednesday, December 17, 2003 - GOLD ABOVE $US 410
Previous Update: Friday, December 5, 2003 - GOLD ABOVE $US 405
Previous Update: Monday, December 1, 2003 - *** GOLD ABOVE $US 400 ***
Previous Update: Wednesday, November 12, 2003 - Gold ABOVE $US 395
Previous Update: Friday, October 24, 2003 - UPTURN - Gold ABOVE $US 385
Previous Update: Friday, October 3, 2003 - DOWNTURN - Gold BELOW $US 370
Previous Update: Tuesday, September 22, 2003 - Gold ABOVE $US 385
Previous Update: Tuesday, September 9, 2003 - Gold ABOVE $US 380
Previous Update: Friday, August 29, 2003 - Gold ABOVE $US 375
Previous Update: Wednesday, August 27, 2003 - Gold ABOVE $US 370
Previous Update: Thursday, August 14, 2003 - Gold ABOVE $US 365
Previous Update: Thursday, July 24, 2003 - UPTURN - Gold ABOVE $US 360
Previous Update: Thursday, June 26, 2003 - Gold BELOW $US 345
Previous Update: Tuesday, June 24, 2003 - Gold BELOW $US 350
Previous Update: Tuesday, June 10, 2003 - DOWNTURN - Gold BELOW $US 355
Previous Update: Wednesday, May 21, 2003 - Gold above $US 370
Previous Update: Tuesday, May 20, 2003 - Gold above $US 365
Previous Update: Monday, May 19, 2003 - Gold above $US 360
Previous Update: Monday, May 12, 2003 - Gold above $US 350
Previous Update: Thursday, May 8, 2003 - Gold above $US 345
Previous Update: Thursday, May 1, 2003 - UPTURN - Gold ABOVE $US 340
Previous Update: Thursday, April 3, 2003 - Gold below $US 325
Previous Update: Friday, March 21, 2003 - Gold below $US 330
Previous Update: Thursday, March 20, 2003 - Gold below $US 335
Previous Update: Thursday, March 13, 2003 - Gold below $US 340
Previous Update: Tuesday, February 18, 2003 - Gold below $US 345
Previous Update: Wednesday, February 12, 2003 - DOWNTURN - Gold BELOW $US 355
Previous Update: Tuesday, February 4, 2003 - Gold above $US 375
Previous Update: Tuesday, January 28, 2003 - Gold above $US 370
Previous Update: Friday, January 24, 2003 - Gold above $US 365
Previous Update: Thursday, January 23, 2003 - Gold above $US 360
Previous Update: Monday, January 13, 2003 - Gold above $US 355
Previous Update: Friday, January 3, 2003 - Gold above $US 350
Previous Update: Thursday, December 19, 2002 - Gold above $US 345
Previous Update: Wednesday, December 18, 2002 - Gold above $US 340
Previous Update: Monday, December 16, 2002 - Gold above $US 335
Previous Update: Thursday, December 12, 2002 - Gold above $US 330
Previous Update: Tuesday, September 24, 2002 - Gold above $US 325
Previous Update: Friday, September 6, 2002 - UPTURN - Gold above $US 320
Previous Update: Friday, July 26, 2002 - Gold below $US 305
Previous Update: Thursday, July 25, 2002 - DOWNTURN - Gold BELOW $US 310
Previous Update: Wednesday, May 29, 2002 - Gold above $US 325
Previous Update: Thursday, May 23, 2002 - Gold above $US 320
Previous Update: Monday, May 20, 2002 - Gold above $US 315
Previous Update: Friday, April 26, 2002 - Gold above $US 310
Previous Update: Tuesday, April 2, 2002 - Gold above $US 305
Previous Update: Friday, February 8, 2002 - *** GOLD ABOVE $US 300 ***

MCXARUN
9994500540

outlook

February gold closed higher on Wednesday as it extends last Friday's rally above the 20-day moving average crossing at
806.50. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above the reaction high crossing at 822.80
renewed the rally off November's low. If February extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 844.20 is the next
upside target. From a broad perspective, February gold needs to close above 855.00 or below 780.40 to confirm a breakout of
the late-fall trading range and point the direction of the next trending move. First resistance is today's high crossing at 830.20
then the reaction high crossing at 844.20. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 806.80 then the reaction low
crossing at 789.60.

March silver closed higher on Wednesday and as it extended last Friday's rally above the 20-day moving average crossing at
14.440. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, this month's high crossing at
14.975 is the next upside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 14.900 then the reaction high crossing at 14.975.
First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.440 then the 10-day moving average crossing at 14.369.

February crude oil closed sharply higher on Wednesday as it extended Monday's rally and closed above minor resistance
crossing at 94.72. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI
remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends this week's rally, the reaction
high crossing at 96.60 is the next upside target. Closes below last Tuesday's low crossing at 89.15 would temper the near-term
friendly outlook in the market. A close below the reaction low crossing at .8560 would renew the decline off November's high.
First resistance is today's high crossing at 96.54. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 98.12. First support is the
10-day moving average crossing at 92.52 then the 25% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 90.64.

February Henry natural gas closed slightly higher on Wednesday but remains below the 10-day moving average crossing at
7.257. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning
bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February renews the decline off November's high,
weekly support crossing at 6.801 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 7.608 are needed to
confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.291 then the reaction
high crossing at 7.608. First support is last Monday's low crossing at 7.045 then weekly support crossing at 6.801.

MCXARUN
9994500540

2008 Gold Price Prediction

So what about 2008?

In 2008, my minimum target is $925 based upon a continuation of the trends already in place and mentioned above.

We could, however, see a spike to between $975 and $1025 if, in addition,

1. The credit crisis escalates and the central banks are forced to inject substantially more "liquidity" into the financial system than anticipated; or

2. If tensions escalate to red alert status in the Middle East, or if a decline in U.S. presence in Iraq rekindles religious tensions, the bombings and violence in general (with the consequent effect on relations with Iran); or

3. Suppy problems escalate in the physical gold market causing a gold crunch; or

4. If we get another major surprise like we did with the credit crisis in 2007 (Yes, something else could crawl from under the rock);

Note: There could be a sharp mid-year correction in the gold price, if we get a strong run-up from the $810 level in the early months of 2008. However, I believe, in the wake of such a run-up, support is likely to come in the current range or just below. Conversely, we could get an out-of-the-box price spike should we see three or more of the events mentioned above converge with their full ill-effect upon the economy and financial markets. These are indeed dangerous times, more dangerous than at any time since the gold bull market began.




MCXARUN
9994500540

Base Metals

Base metals traded lukewarm on Multi Commodity Exchange [MCX] due to lack of international cues. The benchmark London Metal Exchange [LME] is closed on 24th, 25th and 26th for Christmas holiday.

Elsewhere, on Shanghai Futures Exchange [SHFE] copper futures hit its daily limit up for the third consecutive day in a row. Copper in Shanghai rose by the exchange-imposed daily limit for a second day as stockpiles in China slumped to a 10-month low, signaling that the world's biggest consumer of the metal may need to step up buying.

Copper dropped almost 14 percent in the past three months, pressured by a housing slump in the U.S., the world's second-biggest consumer. China's imports this year have helped to underpin the price of the metal, used in wires and pipes.

China's refined copper imports gained 56 percent to 103,410 tons in November 2007, compared with a year earlier, the Beijing- based customs office said on Monday. Imports of the metal rose 89 percent to 1.4 million tons in the 11 months to Nov. 30, the customs office said on Monday, citing revised final data.

Overseas purchases are expected to increase further in the next few months as the profit on imported copper has risen by as much as 3,500 yuan a ton so far this month.

Hindustan Zinc, India's leading zinc producer raised the prices of its Zinc products by INR1,000 to INR1,04,600/tonne.


MCX Copper Feb (Daily Chart)



Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies have turned bullish; will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are increasing from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 18-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Copper Feb: Buy at 274-275 for the target of 282 and 284 with stop loss at 270.50



MCX Zinc Dec (Daily Chart)

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies have turned bullish; will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are increasing from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 18-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Zinc Dec: Buy at 96.00-95.50 for the target of 97.50 and 98.80 with stop loss at 94.80



MCX Nickel Dec (Daily Chart)



Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies have turned bullish; will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are increasing from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 18-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Nickel Dec: Buy at 1060-1055 for the target of 1075 and 1090 with stop loss 1045

MCX Lead Dec (Daily Chart)



Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies have turned bullish; will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are increasing from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 18-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Lead Dec: Buy at 106 –105.50 for the target of 108 and 109.80 with stop loss at 104.40

Energy

On MCX, crude oil contract for Jan. delivery has been trading at Rs.3, 640-Rs. 3680 Range per barrel (NYMEX crude oil $92.50 – $93.80per barrel) with a decline. Trading on New York Mercantile Exchange closed early on Monday today and will fully closed on Tuesday Christmas holiday.

Crude oil on MCX noted jerky trade but held mostly in the red zone on Monday after registering a 4.1% leap in previous four trading sessions following which it closed on Saturday at highest price since Nov.27.

Nymex crude noted mixed trade amid mild trade volumes in the electronic trade session today after registering a over $2 rise on Friday following which it settled at the highest price since Dec.12. Thin trade volumes exacerbate price movements.

Seasonal temperatures are likely to cover the eastern half of the U.S. starting Dec. 23 and remain through Dec. 27, when above-normal temperatures will develop, MDA Federal Inc.'s EarthSat Energy Weather said in a 10-day outlook on Dec. 21.

Daily deliveries of crude oil from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, responsible for 40 percent of world supplies, will decline 0.4 percent to 24.33 million barrels a day in the four weeks to Jan. 5, the first decline in OPEC shipments since August, consultant Oil Movements predicted.

MCX Crude Oil Jan (Daily Chart)



Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are turning bearish but not at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day and 18 days moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative. Over all technical suggest a bullish market and prices are expected to go further up.

Recommendations:

MCX Crude Oil Jan: Buy at 3655-3660 for target of 3730 and 3765 with stop loss below 3620

MCX Natural gas Jan (Daily Chart)



Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are turning bearish but not at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day and 18 days moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative. Over all technical suggest a bullish market and prices are expected to go further up.

Recommendations:

MCX Natural Gas Jan: Buy at 280-85 for the target of 315 and 325 with stop loss at 270

Bullion

MCX Gold was little changed with very low volume on shortened trading hours in Europe and in the U.S. before the Christmas holiday. The other precious metals were similarly quiet and held recent ranges to end the year on a positive note.

Hedge fund managers and other large speculators cut their net-long position in New York gold futures by 1 percent in the week ended Dec. 18, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Data.

The dollar dropped against the euro on Monday and was down as much as 0.3 percent against a basket of six major currencies. Five of the six past bear markets in the dollar have sent gold higher.

MCX Gold Feb (Daily Chart)

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies have turned bullish; will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are increasing from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 18-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Gold Feb: Buy at 10360-70 for the target f 10430 and 10500 with stop loss at 10315

MCX Silver Mar (Daily Chart)

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies have turned bullish; will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are increasing from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 18-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Silver March: Buy at 19200-180 for the target o 19350 and 19560 with stop loss at 19050

HAPPY XMAS

Merry Christmas to all customers

LONG VIEW

CRUDE OIL
LIKELY TO TEST 3460-35 UPTO 3410 WITH ANY CLOSE BELOW 3500 WHILE CLOSE ABOVE 3715/3875-3900 UPTREND AGAIN(JAN)

NATGAS
LIKELY TO TEST 275-72 UPTO 267 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 282-280, ONLY CLOSE ABOVE 302 SOME UPSIDE AGAIN
(JAN)
MCXARUN
9994500540

outlook

February gold closed higher on Friday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 807.40. The high-range close sets the
stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible near-term. Closes above last Wednesday's high crossing at 822.80 are needed to renew the rally off
November's low. From a broad perspective, February gold needs to close above 855.00 or below 780.40 to confirm a breakout
of the late-fall trading range and point the direction of the next trending move. First resistance is today's high crossing at 816.70
then last Wednesday's high crossing at 822.80. First support is Monday's low crossing at 789.60 then the reaction low crossing
at 783.00.


March silver closed higher on Friday and as it extended this week's rally and closed above the 20-day moving average crossing
at 14.453. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned
bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above the 20-day moving average
confirms that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends this week's rally, this month's high crossing at 14.975 is the
next upside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 14.580 then the reaction high crossing at 14.975. First support is
Monday's low crossing at 13.740 then October's low crossing at 13.360.

February crude oil closed sharply higher on Friday as it rebounded off the 25% retracement level of the August-November rally
crossing at 90.65. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to
bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February renews last week's rally, the reaction high
crossing at .9660 is the next upside target. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at 89.15 would temper the near-term friendly
outlook in the market. A close below the reaction low crossing at .8560 would renew the decline off November's high. First
resistance is today's high crossing at 93.84. Second resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 94.72. First support is
Tuesday's low crossing at 89.15 then the 38% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 86.67.

February Henry natural gas closed higher on Friday and above the 10-day moving average crossing at 7.260. The high-range
close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.373 are needed to confirm that a
short-term low has been posted. If February renews the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 6.801 is the
next downside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 7.352 then the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.373.
First support is Monday's low crossing at 7.045 then weekly support crossing at 6.801.

MCXARUN
9994500540

GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS

Last Friday we had mentioned that traders will either square off or go long in precious metals and energies, we were right. Volumes this week will fall and trading will be volatile. Window dressing by fund managers along with position building for the first quarter of 2008, particularly in the options markets will dictate the markets. There is nothing new to comment and it will be technical trade for the rest of the week.

Crude oil floating over $90 a barrel as the year comes to a close. Crude oil has given the best return in 2007, which will draw more and more investor going long in crude oil. I am skeptical about rise in crude oil prices after August 2008. The reason, 2008 is US elections year and higher energy prices will become a political issue which could result in speculators cutting some of the longs in crude oil ahead of the US elections. Unless there are major hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico in 2008, we remain bearish on crude oil before US presidential elections. I did rather take a chance and buy some puts between July and November 2008.

Emerging market stocks like India had a great and memorable 2007. This will continue into 2008. However it will not be a one way traffic like 2007. There will be some fluctuations. India stock markets and India companies will benefit from interest rates cuts from other central banks as cost of funds decline. However the sectors which performed in 2007 may be the laggards in 2008. We prefer to buy interest rate sensitive sectors like Automobiles and others (apart from infrastructure) for 2008 as lower global interest rates and lower commodity prices will benefit them. Apart from interest rate sensitive stocks, agro - commodity stocks (apart from sugar) is also a good long term investment as higher prices are here to stay.

GOLD -- FEBRURAY FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT:$723

Gold has to break $825 for gains to $848, else it will fall to $808 and $798 once again.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $92.10

Crude oil needs to break $95 else it will fall to $90.50 and $88.90 once again. As long as crude oil floats over $90.50 downside will be limited.

Base Metals

Base metals finished up on MCX on short covering ahead of the long weekend holiday on the benchmark LME.Copper most active February finished at Rs.272.30/kg, rising by Rs.1/kg. It tossed in the range Rs.271.75-273/kg.

Meanwhile both copper and zinc futures on SHFE hit their daily limit up for the second consecutive time on Friday despite the sixth interest rate hike of 7.47% by China.

LME will be closed on 24th, 25th and 26th December for Christmas.

Global copper use rose 7.1 percent in the nine months ended Sept. 30, boosted by Chinese demand, the International Copper Study Group said.



MCX Copper Feb (Daily Chart)

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies have turned bullish; will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are increasing from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 18-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Copper Feb: Buy at 268-270 for the target of 276 and 280 with stop loss at 265.50

MCX Zinc Dec (Daily Chart)

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies have turned bullish; will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are increasing from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 18-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Zinc Dec: Buy at 94.50-94.00 for the target of 97.00 and 98.80 with stop loss at 93.20

MCX Nickel Dec (Daily Chart)

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies have turned bullish; will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are increasing from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 18-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Nickel Dec: Buy at 1060-1055 for the target of 1075 and 1090 with stop loss 1045

MCX Lead Dec (Daily Chart)

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies have turned bullish; will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are increasing from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 18-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Lead Dec: Buy at 106 –105.50 for the target of 108 and 109.80 with stop loss at 104.40