bullion intraday

Bullion
30 May 2008 10:37:48



Bullion May 30 2008

Major Headlines:


Gold tumbled the most in a month as the dollar rallied, reducing the appeal of the precious metal as an alternative investment. Silver also declined.

The dollar climbed as much as 0.6 percent against a weighted basket of the euro, yen and four other major currencies on speculation that the Federal Reserve may begin to raise U.S. borrowing costs this year to curb inflation. Crude oil erased an earlier decline after U.S. fuel inventories dropped

European central bankers have expressed ``personal opinions'' to renew an agreement to limit annual gold sales, they agreed to limit their gold sales to 500 metric tons a year through September 2009. The banks probably won't announce their plans until early next year,

Seven interest-rate cuts since September helped send the dollar to an all-time low against the euro and gold to a record, The federal funds rate is at 2 percent, down from 5.25 percent when the Fed began cutting rates in September to blunt the effects of a housing slump and a credit crisis that threatened to push the economy into a recession.

Mining companies may reduce their forward sales by a total of about 10 million ounces this year, GFMS said. They cut a record 14.3 million ounces last year; Gold averaged $923.82 an ounce in the first quarter, compared with $789.31 in the fourth quarter. Miners can agree to sell future production at current prices to protect against losses caused by sudden declines, a strategy known as hedging

Russia's foreign currency and gold reserves, the world's third largest, raised to a record $548.1 billion last week, the central bank said, the value of reserves increased by $7.3 billion in the week ended May 23, Moscow-based Bank Rossii, the central bank, The reserves gained $4 billion in the previous week.

ETF Securities Ltd. said its assets in precious metals reached $2 billion after one year, mostly in gold and platinum, The ETFS Physical Gold exchange-traded fund holds 1.1 million ounces worth more than $1 billion, while ETFS Physical Platinum has 360,000 ounces worth more than $776 million, ETFS Physical Silver has 9.6 million ounces worth about $175 million and ETFS Physical Palladium attracted 199,000 ounces of investor demand worth more than $90 million. The funds started trading on April 23 last year

U.S.Economy:
The U.S. Commerce Department said that real GDP was up .9% in the first quarter and up 2.5% from a year ago, as expected. Nominal GDP was up 4.8% from a year ago, a far cry from recession. The June U.S. T-bonds are steady to lower.
The U.S. Labor Department said that jobless claims were up 4,000 last week to 372,000, roughly as expected. The March eurodollars are lower

Currencies update:

The Conference Board said that its index of leading indicators for Australia was down .4% in March to 184.2. The June Australian dollar is trading lower.


MCX Gold June - Technical Outlook:


The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.


Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 11941 If market breaches below 11941 may see prices to take further correction towards 11782 and 11531 However if it holds back above 12351 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 12602 and 12761

Recommendations–MCX Gold June: Sell at 12145 Target 12020 and 19890 Stoploss at 12195


MCX Silver July - Technical Outlook:

The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 22549 If market breaches below 22549 may see prices to take further correction towards 22007 and 21065 However if it holds back above 24033 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 24975 and 25517

Recommendations-MCX Silver July: Sell at 23240 Target 22950 and 22780 stoploss at 23415


MCXARUN
9994500540

GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS

The crude oil awakening begins as US and UK regulators have started investigating into the rise of crude oil prices. US regulators revealed a wide-ranging investigation into crude oil trading practices amid increasing congressional concern over the role of speculators in record energy prices. Citing unprecedented market conditions, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission said it was breaking with its customary secrecy to disclose that since December 2007 it had been investigating “the purchase, transportation, storage, and trading of crude oil and related derivative contracts”. The statement came as the agency tightened its oversight of oil and energy derivatives markets by agreeing to share more information on traders’ positions in key energy contracts with the UK’s Financial Services Authority.

Politicians are bowing to public pressure as truckers in the UK and fishermen in France have started raising their voice in a big way. These politicians act only when they feel that their power is nearing an end. UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s public rating is at an all time low. The same is with Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president. Crude oil prices along with higher food prices are pinching voters across the globe. Between now and the end of 2009, there are more than fifteen countries moving into general elections. In almost all the countries the chances of the ruling coming into power are very thin unless energy and food prices fall and stabilise. The long term rise in food and energy prices is here to stay, but that does not mean prices rise nearly fifty percent in less than six months.

There could be further profit taking in crude oil prices as traders book profit ahead of the weekend. $120.40 and $124.80 are the key intra day support. This has been the best month for the US dollar in 2008. Unless the US economy stumbles, one should expect further gains for the US dollar in June. Base metals and precious metals can gain today on short covering before the weekend.

COPPER -- JULY FUTURE

Copper needs to close over $356 today else it will fall to $347 (200 day MA) and $336.10. Resistance at $372 and $378.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE

As long as $119.80 holds till next week, downside will be limited.

MCXARUN
9994500540

safe trade calls

GOLD

book profit on sell below 12650/12500, for the day buy ard 12280-290 S/L 12275 and T/p 12350-60/12400 OR sell ard 12610-20 S/L 12625 and T/p 12560-500 upto 12460, anytime close below 12260 test 12075-100 in coming days (any time close above 13000-100/13425 bullish while close below 12260/11725/ 11460/11150/11000-10925 bearish for medium term)

SILVER


book profit on sell below 24200, for the day buy ard 23930-40 S/L 23900 and T/p 24050 upto 24175 OR sell ard 24575-80 S/L 24600 and T/p 24475-360 upto 24300 (any time close below 23675-300/22750-300/21575-500/ 20400/19250/18775 bearish rally while close above 25500/26300/27700 bullish for medium term)


CRUDE

EIA Crude oil inventory schedule to release today. as long resistance of 5730-50, down trend continue. for the day buy ard 5480-85 S/L 5475 and T/p 5530-60 OR sell ard 5715-25 S/L 5730 and T/p 5675-5630, now anytime close below 5375 test 5275 atleast/towards 5150 in coming days (now crude need to close above 5730/5825 for bullish rally while close below 5375/5310/ 5120/5050/4740/4450 bearish for medium term)

COPPER

book profit on sell below 347-345, for the day buy only abv 352.5 S/L 351 and T/p 354/356.5/358/361-361.5/close abv test 372-375 atleast in coming days OR sell below 345 S/L 346 and T/p 343-42.5/340.5/338.5/336 where good support seen again, fall below 336 & 330 down rally sharp(upside strong rally only on close above 361.5 while close below 340.5/336/330-326.5/310 bearish for medium term)

mcxarun
9994500540

comex crude oil intraday

Crude oil Outlook
29 May 2008 11:04:53



Oil prices bounced back to $131 levels yesterday, after falling below $126 due to profit booking by the traders from the recent rally. The market is awaiting the US Energy Department’s weekly inventory report, which will be released later today, for the latest updates on crude inventories.



Crude oil July in NYMEX settled at $130.82 ($128.25), after trading in the range $131.58 - $125.96.



Potential supply threats due to geo-political tensions, expected demand from China and OPEC’s unwillingness to increase output despite high prices continue to underpin oil prices.



Another attack on Nigerian oil facilities refocused concerns on immediate supplies. Production was partially disturbed after militants attacked a major oil pipeline owned by Royal Dutch Shell in the Niger Delta on Monday.



Meanwhile, Iran has cut its crude oil exports by 200,000 barrels a day since February 20 due to a seasonal fall in demand for crude oil during the refinery maintenance period. Iran is the world's fourth biggest oil exporter, currently producing around 4 million barrels a day, of which roughly 2.5 million barrels a day is exported.



Oil prices have soared by over 30 percent since the beginning of the year, extending a long-term rally that has seen prices more than double since the beginning of 2007, as market players weigh rising demand against concerns over production.



Expected strong energy demand from China after the Asian nation suffered a devastating earthquake last week and higher gasoline purchases from the United States ahead of the summer driving season have also boosted crude. On the supply side, ministers from the OPEC have indicated any output increase from the cartel remains unlikely, as it continues to blame record prices on speculation, geopolitical factors and the dollar's decline, rather than a lack of crude in the market.



DWTI (July) traded in the range $126.02 - $131.57 and closed at $130.99.

Weekly Technical Outlook

Expecting some correction if trades below 130.49. Supports are 128.30, 126.00; resistances are 133.22, 134.90. Otherwise likely to touch 137.97 and 140.88.



TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)

DGCXCrude (July) - Bullish above 130.10; bearish below 129.70

MCXARUN
9994500540

comex gold intraday

Gold Outlook
29 May 2008 10:52:19



Gold drifted lower yesterday, as the dollar held on to its previous day gains.



International spot gold traded in the range $909.40 - $888.90 and last quoted at $900.10 ($904.80).



The dollar found support in better-than-expected survey on US durable goods orders. Data from the Commerce Department showed new orders for US-made durable goods dropped less than expected 0.5 % in April, against the expectation for a 2.8% drop.



The recent data from the US have given mixed hints regarding the economy.



According to the release by US Conference Board on Tuesday, the consumer confidence index fell to 57.2 in May from a revised reading of 62.8 in April.



However the sales of new homes recovered during April for the first time in six months, rising 3.3% in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 526,000, the Commerce Department reported.



Even so, the housing market worries remained. Standard & Poor's reported that the decline in home prices for 20 US metropolitan areas accelerated in March, dropping 14.4% from the past year.



Earlier, the National Association of Realtors had reported a 1 % drop in the resale of houses and condos to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.89 million in April, from 4.94 million in March.



On last week, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight reported that US home prices fell a seasonally adjusted 1.7% in the first three months of 2008, which happens to be the largest quarterly price decline on record.



But data from the job market was slightly encouraging. According to the latest release by US Labor Department, first-time claims for unemployment benefits fell by 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 365,000 in the week ended May 17th. However, the four-week average of initial claims rose by 5,000, reaching 372,250.



The number of continuing jobless claims was unchanged for the week ended May 10, at 3.07 million. The four-week average of those claims rose by 31,750, to 3.05 million.



The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's April 29-30 meeting had invigorated worries about the economy. The minutes released last week revealed that the Fed sharply increased its inflation outlook for the current year and downwardly revised the forecast for economic growth for 2008.



According to the latest forecast, headline inflation as measured by the personal consumption expenditure price index would rise to a range of 3.1% to 3.4% this year, significantly higher from its previous forecast of 2.1% to 2.4% in January.



The real GDP growth is revised to grow at 0.3% to 1.2% this year, down from the previous forecast of a 1.3% to 2.0% rate.





Oil prices bounced back to $131 levels, after falling below $126 due to profit booking by the traders from the recent rally. The market is awaiting the US Energy Department’s weekly inventory report, which will be released later today, for the latest updates on crude inventories.



Crude oil July in NYMEX settled at $130.82 ($128.25), after trading in the range $131.58 - $125.96.



Potential supply threats due to geo-political tensions, expected demand from China and OPEC’s unwillingness to increase output despite high prices underpin oil prices.



Another attack on Nigerian oil facilities refocused concerns on immediate supplies. Production was partially disturbed after militants attacked a major oil pipeline owned by Royal Dutch Shell in the Niger Delta on Monday.



Last day DGCX Gold Aug traded in the range $914.10 – $893.80 and closed at $904.00 ($910.20).



Weekly Technical Outlook (Spot Gold)

Above $930 likely to touch $936.50, $945, $955; Supports are $921, $914 and $903. Expecting some correction below $914.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)

GOLD (Aug) - Bullish above $ 906.00; bearish below $ 901.50

MCXARUN
9994500540

energy intraday

Energy
29 May 2008 10:38:09



Energy May 29 2008

Major Headlines:

Indonesia, the only OPEC member in Southeast Asia, will pull out of the group as aging fields and declining production force the region's biggest economy to boost imports.

Oil fell below $128 a barrel after the average U.S. gasoline pump prices rose to a record $3.937 a gallon, limiting demand at the start of the summer driving season. The dollar also gained against the euro for a second day, reducing the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment.

Crude oil fell to a one-week low on signs that record U.S. gasoline prices will cut fuel consumption during the summer driving season. Gasoline pump prices reached an all-time high Monday, curbing demand at the start of the summer, when the country's fuel use typically peaks. Higher prices and a housing slump helped push U.S. consumer confidence to the lowest level since October 1992, a report showed Monday.

Oil markets are ``stressed'' by a lack of supply that's expected to continue for the foreseeable future, the International Energy Agency' said,

Crude prices drew some support from news of a weekend rebel attack on a Nigerian oil facility that cut about 130,000 barrels of the nation's oil production, said Addison Armstrong, director of market research at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Conn., in a research note. News of disruptions in Nigeria, a major U.S. supplier, have helped push oil prices higher over the past year

According to EIA world oil consumption is projected to grow by 1.2 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2008. U.S. consumption of liquid fuels and other petroleum is expected to decline in 2008 by about 190,000 bbl/d as a result of the economic slowdown and high petroleum prices. After accounting for increased ethanol use, U.S. petroleum consumption is projected to fall by 330,000 bbl/d in 2008.

Natural gas in New York declined, following oil lower, amid speculation record prices will slash fuel demand. Norway, the second-largest seller of natural gas to Europe, will seek to increase annual exports by about 50 percent to compensate for declining oil output, the country's deputy oil minister said

MCX Crude Oil June Technical Outlook:

The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative

Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 5640 levels. If market breaches 5640 may see prices to take further upside towards 5720 and 5855 However if it holds back below 5425 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 5290 and 5210

Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil June: Sell at 5660 Target 5580 and 5520 Stoploss 5710

MCX Natural gas June Technical Outlook:

The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Market is expected to remain negative and the resistance is seen at 517.30 levels. If market breaches 517.30 may see prices to take further upside towards 524.60 and 533.33 However if it holds back below 501.30may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 492.60and 485.30


Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas June: Sell at 516 Target 512 and 507 Stop loss at 519.50


MCXARUN
9994500540

bullion intraday

Bullion
29 May 2008 10:25:46



Bullion May 29 2008

Major Headlines:

Gold fell in New York for a second straight day as the dollar strengthened, reducing the appeal of the precious metal as an alternative investment and Silver gained, before this week, gold had gained 40 percent in the past year as oil doubled, touching an all-time high of $135.09 a barrel last week

The dollar rose broadly on Wednesday after a report showed new orders for US durable goods fell by less than expected in April, supporting the view the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates on hold or even raise them by the end of the year

China, which may overtake South Africa as the world's largest gold producer, has discovered five major bullion deposits, the China Gold Association said. China's demand for gold jumped 23 percent in 2007, making it the world's second-largest consumer, as a booming economy spurs jewelry purchases.

Bullion soared to a record $1,032.70 an ounce on March 17, as a falling U.S. dollar and declining equities led investors to buy alternative assets. China’s total gold resource is between 15,000 and 20,000 tons, the association said today. Production of the bullion in the first two months of the year was 38.2 tons, the association also said, without giving a comparison from a year earlier

There is some long liquidation in gold. "Certainly a part of it is fund activity and speculators." Gold futures dipped below $900, as psychologically important. The next key area is the $880s, and more specifically $886 for the June contract

The short-term sentiment was weak because of the softer euro and prices could come under selling pressure as trading in Europe gets underway. The metal could Retrace down toward support at $880/oz and the the weakness will likely prove temporary, and gold's longer-term outlook is still positive, given concerns about inflationary pressures and still-shaky outlook for the dollar,



U.S.Economy:

The U.S. Commerce Department said that durable goods orders were down .5% in April, better than expected. Excluding transportation, orders were up 2.5%, also better than expected. The June U.S. T-bonds are trading lower.


The Mortgage Bankers' Association said that its index of mortgage applications was down 4.6% last week.

Currencies update:

In Germany, annual inflation in three states topped 3% in May, highlighting upside risks to the reading for the euro zone’s biggest economy, due later on Wednesday. The data supported expectations for the European Central Bank to retain its hawkish, inflation-fighting stance despite signs of an economic slowdown seen in recent sentiment surveys from euro zone member states.

The dollar rose for a third day against a weighted basket of six currencies, including the euro and the yen. Record energy costs have fueled speculation the Federal Reserve will raise borrowing costs to control inflation.

The Australian dollar's rally against the U.S. currency stalled after a slump in the price of gold, the country's third-most valuable export. The New Zealand dollar snapped an eight-day gain.

MCX Gold June Technical Outlook:

The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 12262 If market breaches below 12262 may see prices to take further correction towards 12110 and 11959 However if it holds back above 12565 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 12716 and 12868

Recommendations–MCX Gold June: Sell at 12485 Target 12350 and 12230 Stoploss at 12540

MCX Silver July Technical Outlook:

The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 23792 If market breaches below 23792 may see prices to take further correction towards 23333 and 22992 However if it holds back above 24592 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 24933 and 25392

Recommendations-MCX Silver July: Sell at 24410 Target 24250 and 23970 stoploss at 24595

MCXARUN
9994500540