For safe trade

GOLD

buy abv 12810 S/L 12790 and T/p 12840 -875/12950 upto 13000 OR buy ard 12560-565 S/L 12550 and T/p 12625-650/12725 (any time close above 12875 bullish while close below 102375/12150/ 11875/11575-475/11300/10950-900/ 10500/10050/9850/9575 bearish for medium term)


SILVER

for the day buy only abv 26650 S/L 26550 and T/p 26725-800/900 upto 27000 OR buy ard 25690-710 S/L 25650 and T/p 25850-950 upto 26100 (any time close below 24850/23090/21990/ 21250/ 20150/19390/18600-250/17850 bearish rally while close above 26800 bullish for medium term)

CRUDE

for the day buy only abv 4200 S/L 4180 and T/p 4230-50/4280 OR buy ard 4100-5 S/L 4090 and T/p 4125/4150 (now crude need to close above 4200 for bullish rally while close below 4000/ 3925/3840/3790/3635-3590/3475/3395/ 3350/3090/2810 bearish for medium term)

COPPER

for the day buy only abv 350.5-351 S/L 349 and T/p 354 atleast upto 358-360 in coming days OR buy ard 343.5-344 S/L 343 and T/p 345-347.5 (upside strong rally only on close above 351 while close below 333.5/321/ 311-303/281/ 267.5/254.5/235 bearish for medium term)


MCXARUN
9994500540

Long view

SPOT GOLD INTERNATIONAL
LIKELY TO TEST $ 1000-2/8 UPTO $ 1015 WITH ANY SUSTAIN CLOSE ABOVE $994. UNLESS CLOSE BELOW $ 957 MOST LIKELY TO TEST $ 1015 IN COMING DAYS .... BUY AT EVERY DEEP WITH S/L $ 957

SPOT SILVER INTERNATIONAL
LIKELY TO TEST $ 21 - $ 21.30 UPTO $ 21.75
UNLESS CLOSE BELOW $ 19.36

SILVER
LIKELY TO TEST 27300-500/28000 UPTO 29000 IN COMING DAYS UNLESS CLOSE BELOW 24850, BUY AT EVERY DEEP WITH STRICT S/L 24850(MAY)

MCXARUN
9994500540

Comex gold intraday

· Gold prices surged as more downbeat US data weakened the dollar and as high oil prices continued to fuel inflation jitters.



· The dollar fell as US companies reportedly cut 23,000 jobs in February according to the ADP National Employment Report, leaving the job figures well below the 15,000-job increase expected.



· International spot gold traded in the range $959.45 - $991.80 and last quoted at $987.90. On Monday, the metal hit an all-time record high of 989.33 USD an ounce.



· Gold moves in line with oil prices as investors’ hedge against inflation, and in the opposite direction to the dollar as bullion is seen as an alternative asset. Gold's value has soared on such purchases and on safe haven buying as the global economy remains shaky and vulnerable to more weakness.



· India, the largest consumer, is entering the marriage season which is a typically strong demand period for gold, and we can expect physical buying activity during price dips that will help support prices, although any significant dollar move will be the key driver for prices



Medium term outlook (Spot Gold)

Bullish above $916; Resistances are $926, $932, $947, $954, $973, $984, $995, $1002; supports $896, $883. Expecting further up-trend above $954.60.



Last day DGCX Gold April traded in the range $961.50 - $995.00 and last quoted at $989.00 ($961.20).





TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)



GOLD (Apr) - Bullish above $ 986.00; bearish below $ 981.00

MCXARUN
9994500540

Energy intraday

· Oil prices climbed back above $103.98 a barrel Wednesday as OPEC decided against putting more oil on the global market despite near record-high prices for crude. Natural gas rose as crude oil and other energy commodities surged and colder weather was forecast through the middle of March, signalling higher demand. Speculators returning to the market as prices dipped also contributed to the rebound.

· OPEC president and Algerian energy minister Chakib Khelil said during a press briefing following the cartel's production meeting today that high oil prices were due not to supply issues but to the "mismanagement" of the US economy.

· Ongoing weakness of the US dollar and the credit crunch precipitated by the sub-prime mortgage crisis, which have fuelled buying of commodities as a hedge, have driven the price of crude higher.

· European diplomats warned Iran that its atomic program, pursued in defiance of UN orders to stop, will hurt the government in Tehran until it halts nuclear fuel production and clarifies documents alleging weapons studies.

· The International Atomic Energy Agency's 35-member board of governors is finishing a meeting today in Vienna about nuclear inspections in Iran. The United Nations body confronted Iran last month with documents that showed Iran may have studied atomic missile design. Iranian diplomats say the documents are forged.



Weekly Inventory Update:



· For the week ended Feb. 29, crude-oil inventories fell by 3.1 million barrels, or 1 percent, to 305.4 million barrels, the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report. While the stockpiles were 4 percent below year-ago levels, analysts had expected a gain of 2.3 million barrels, according to a survey by Dow Jones Newswires.

· Gasoline inventories rose by 1.7 million barrels, or 0.7 percent, to 234.3 million barrels, which was 9 percent above year-ago levels. Analysts expected stockpiles of the motor fuel to rise by only 900,000 barrels last week.

· Demand for gasoline over the four weeks ended Feb. 29 was 0.4 percent higher than a year earlier, averaging nearly 9.1 million barrels a day.

· At the same time, U.S. refineries ran at 85.9 percent of total capacity on average, a gain of 1.2 percentage points. Analysts expected a gain of only 0.3 percentage point.

· Inventories of distillate fuel, which includes diesel and heating oil, fell by 2.4 million barrels to 117.6 million barrels for the week ended Feb. 29.Analysts expected distillate stocks to drop by 1.9 million barrels.

· At the pump, gas prices rose by a penny overnight to a national average of about $3.18 a gallon Wednesday and remain well above the year-ago average of $2.49 a gallon, according to AAA and the Oil Price Information Service. The Energy Information Administration has said gas prices are expected to peak at $3.40 a gallon this spring.



MCX Crude Oil March

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations:

MCX Crude Oil March: Buy at 4140 Target 4215 and 4260 Stop loss at 4105

MCX Natural gas March

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations:

MCX Natural Gas March: Buy at 383 Target 389 and 395 Stop loss 381.50

MCXARUN
9994500540

Basemetals intraday

· New orders for manufactured goods in January, down following four consecutive monthly increases, decreased $10.8 billion or 2.5 percent to $429.2 billion, the U.S.

· Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 2.0 percent December increase. Shipments, up four of the last five months, increased $4.7 billion or 1.1 percent to $431.8 billion. This was at the highest level since the series was first stated on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 0.4 percent December
decrease.
decrease.

· Unfilled orders, up thirty-two of the last thirty-three months, increased $5.3 billion or 0.7 percent to $813.3 billion. This was also at the highest level since the series was first stated on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 2.5 percent December increase. The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio was 5.38, down from 5.44 in December.

· Inventories, up eleven of the last twelve months, increased $6.7 billion or 1.3 percent to $535.4 billion. This was also at the highest level since the series was first stated on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 0.9 percent December increase. The inventories-to-shipments ratio was unchanged at 1.24.



Major Headline:

· Copper gained after the dollar slipped against a basket of major currencies, renewing demand
for commodities as a hedge against inflation.

· The U.S. Dollar Index, a weighted measure against the euro, yen, pound and three other currencies, slid for the seventh straight session after touching a record low two days ago.Before today, copper, used in pipes and wires, surged 26 percentthis year.

· Chile's state-owned Codelco, the world's biggest copper-mining company, said a protest by
contract workers delayed some employees from arriving at its second-largest mine, called El Teniente.

· Contract workers hampered some buses carrying Codelco employees today to the mine in central Chile, the company's Santiago-based press office said. El Teniente produces 24 percent of Codelco's copper.

· Output was unaffected by the delay. Yesterday, a five-hour protest by contract workers forced the mine to halt production. Labor unrest in Chile, the world's largest copper supplier, and neighboring Peru will buoy the price of the metal this year, said Mark Turner, an analyst at Hallgarten & Co. in Arequipa, Peru.

· Aluminum Price Forecasts Raised by Macquarie on Power Outage Macquarie Group Ltd. raised its 2008 and 2009 aluminum price forecasts by 15 percent after power shortages in China and Africa cut production.

· Demand from countries such as China, the world's largest consumer, will keep the market ``tight'' this year, decline probably won't last long and lead will rise in the second quarter because of an estimated 18 percent jump in Chinese consumption this year

· BNP Paribas analyst David Thurtell said in a report yesterday that rising mine output and Lead extracted from batteries will create an oversupply of about 100,000 tons this year, causing prices to decline.

· Baosteel Group Says Steel Demand May Slow Amid Rising Cost Baosteel Group Corp., China’s largest steelmaker, said market conditions would be more difficult this year as costs rise and demand may slow because of government measures.

· Anshan Says China Can't Agree to Iron Ore Prices With Rio Chinese steelmakers, the world's largest iron ore consumers, have rejected a Rio Tinto Group demand for a so-called freight premium on its shipments, Anshan Iron & Steel Group said.

MCX Copper April

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations:

MCX Copper April: Buy at 344 Stop loss at 341.20 Target 354 and 358

MCX Zinc March

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations:

MCX Zinc March: Buy at 112 Stop loss at 110.20 Target 115 and 117

MCX Nickel March

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations:

MCX Nickel March: Buy at 1320 Target

1350 and 1365 Stop loss 1308

MCX Lead Feb

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations:

MCX Lead March: Buy at 133 Target 138 and 140 Stop loss at 131.50

MCXARUN
9994500540

Bullion intraday

· Gold prices surged as more poor US data weakened the dollar and as high oil prices continued to fuel inflation jitters.

· The dollar fell as US companies reportedly cut 23,000 jobs in February according to the ADP National Employment Report, leaving the job figures well below the 15,000-job increase expected. The data suggests total non-farm payrolls, due Friday from the Labour Department, fell by about 8,000 last month.

· At 1.55 pm, gold was trading at 970.10 usd per ounce against 964.95 usd in late New York trades yesterday. On Monday, the metal hit an all-time record high of 989.33 usd an ounce.

· Gold moves in line with oil prices as investors hedge against inflation, and in the opposite direction to the dollar as bullion is seen as an alternative asset. Gold's value has soared on such purchases and on safe haven buying as the global economy remains shaky and vulnerable to more weakness.

· India, the largest consumer, is entering the marriage season which is a typically strong demand period for gold, and we can expect physical buying activity during price dips that will help support prices, although any significant dollar move will be the key driver for prices

Indian Spot Bullion Market:



Gold and Silver finished down in spot markets tracing the profit booking in international markets after the recent rally.

· In Mumbai markets, gold (995) and gold (.999) was down by Rs 220 to finish at Rs 12,585 per 10 gm and Rs 12,635/10gm. Arrivals in gold were at 100 kilos. Silver (.999) closed at Rs 24,100/kg, plunging by Rs 550. Arrivals in silver were at 200 kilos.

· Ahmedabad gold (995) depleted by Rs 310 to close at Rs 12,525/10gm and gold (.999) by Rs 305 to close at Rs 12,580/10gm whereas Silver (.999) closed at Rs 24,900/kg, down by Rs 650.

· In Delhi bullion markets, gold (995) decreased by Rs 220 to finish at Rs 12,600/10gm and gold (.999) by Rs 230 to finish at Rs 12,660/10gm whereas Silver (.999) ends at Rs 24,350/kg, down by Rs 540.

MCX Gold Apr

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations:

MCX Gold April: Buy at 12700 Target 12820 and 12900 Stop loss at 12665

MCX Silver May

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations:

MCX Silver May: Buy at 26350 Target 26700 and 26900 Stop loss at 26115

MCXARUN
9994500540

Technicals – MCX (Intra day calls)

CRUDE OIL (March) BULLISH ABOVE 4140BEARISH BELOW 4122

GOLD (April) BULLISH ABOVE 12750 BEARISH BELOW 12710

SILVER (March) BULLISH ABOVE 26200 BEARISH BELOW 26110

COPPER (APRIL) BULLISH ABOVE 346.4 BEARISH BELOW 345.4

LEAD (MARCH) BULLISH ABOVE 134.45BEARISH BELOW 133.9

NICKEL (MARCH) BULLISH ABOVE 1343 BEARISH BELOW 1335

ZINC (MARH) BULLISH ABOVE 112.90 BEARISH BELOW 112.30

MCXARUN
9994500540

GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS

The metals rise is all about a weaker US dollar and higher crude oil prices. Base metals were volatile as they fell after the OECD growth forecast was reduced to two percent for 2008. Thereafter they pared all their losses. Base metals will be volatile for the rest of the week as global economic growth will not be as good as markets expected. Markets will be looking forward to the European Central bank meeting to see if they comment anything on the stronger euro. Higher commodity prices will prevent the ECB from cutting interest rates. Tomorrow’s February payroll number will be the key as the worst gets factored in. There could be liquidation of longs if the numbers beat market expectations.

Traders and investors have started investing away from equities into commodities. This is one of the prime reasons for the rise in prices. Commodities are one those investments which if you start trading are addictive in my view. If you start trading in commodities you may even miss your date with your girl friend or miss family get together if it is on a week day. The prime reason is that commodity markets are open five days a week and nearly twenty four hours a day. A person can return from his work and trade after his office hours unlike equities which have limited trading hours. Like I wrote yesterday commodities are universal in nature. One can also trade in equities twenty fours hours a day but in a different country and you need to have proper knowledge of the scripts which you trade. No additional research needs to be done for commodities. We will continue with the commodities and equities differences tomorrow.

COPPER -- MAY FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $389.0

Only a break of $402-$404 will result in $418.80. On the lower support at $389.70 and $380.60

NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $106.0

A break of $106 will result in $108.65. On the lower side only a fall below $102.60 will result in $100 and $98.40

MCXARUN
9994500540