Technicals – MCX (Intra day calls)

CRUDE OIL (February) BULLISH ABOVE 3545BEARISH BELOW 3514

GOLD (April) BULLISH ABOVE 11510 BEARISH BELOW 11474

SILVER (March) BULLISH ABOVE 21466 BEARISH BELOW 21375

COPPER (February) BULLISH ABOVE 287.30 BEARISH BELOW 286.50

LEAD (February) BULLISH ABOVE 111.7 BEARISH BELOW 111.3

NICKEL (February) BULLISH ABOVE 1084 BEARISH BELOW 1080

ZINC (February) BULLISH ABOVE 98.10BEARISH BELOW 97.70

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outlook

April gold closed lower on Monday and below the 10-day moving average crossing at 915.00 signaling that a short-term top has
been posted. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 904.00
would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends this winter's rally, monthly resistance crossing at 950.00
is the next upside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 942.20 then monthly resistance crossing at
950.00. First support is today's low crossing at 896.00 then the reaction low crossing at 855.00.

March silver closed lower on Monday as it consolidated some of this winter's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a
steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling that a short-term top
might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.312 are needed to confirm that a short-term top
has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, weekly resistance crossing at 17.500 is the next upside target.
First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 17.345 then month resistance crossing at 17.500. First support is today's low
crossing at 16.445 then the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.312.

March copper closed higher on Monday as it consolidates above the 20-day moving average. The high-range close sets the stage
for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are
possible near-term. If March extends last week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 336.00 is the next upside target. First
resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 334.20. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 336.00. First support is last
Thursday's low crossing at 319.90. Second support is last Monday's low crossing at 311.65.

March crude oil closed higher on Monday and above the 10-day moving average crossing at 90.25. Today's high-range close
sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 91.48 are needed to
confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews last Friday's decline, January's low crossing at 85.42 is the
next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 91.48. Second resistance is last Wednesday's
high crossing at 92.71. First support is today's low crossing at 88.07. Second support is January's low crossing at 85.42.

March Henry natural gas posted an upside reversal and closed sharply higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage
for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices
are possible near-term. If March extends the decline, January's low crossing at 7.534 is the next downside target. Closes above
last week's high crossing at 8.123 are needed to renew the rally off January's low. First resistance is today's high crossing at
8.011 then last week's high crossing at 8.123. First support is today's low crossing at 7.580. Second support is January's low
crossing at 7.534.

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GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS

It’s a technical trade in all metals and energies in the absence of major market moving news. Gold and silver will continue to find buyers at lower levels unless there is a short term technical breakdown. Some of the retail investors who are stuck at higher levels will average out at lower levels. For the rest of the week gold will consolidate before the next move. Physical demand is still not there in India. Investment demand will continue to dictate gold and silver. Based metals will find buyers at lower levels as markets prepare for greater Chinese demand after the Chinese New Year celebrations are over.

President George W. Bush’s $3.1 trillion federal budget that trims Medicare and health care programs and boosts military spending projects the deficit this year and next will hit near-record levels. If the spending does not reverse the growth rates of the US economy, the US dollar could again nosedive. This is an election year in the US and all the politicians in the US try to ensure that a temporary feel good factor is there among the voters.

GOLD -- APRIL FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT:$919.0

Gold has to break $919 for gains else it will trade in $895-$919 wider range.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $89.54

In the short term as long as crude oil holds $85 it will target $95 and $102+. Crude oil has to fall below $85 for further gains.

MCXARUN
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