· Oil was steady near a record hit earlier as investors favoured holding commodities, especially crude, as safe assets in the midst of global economic turmoil.
· New York's main WTI benchmark hit a record 109.72 usd this morning as the dollar slumped to a record low against the euro. The price briefly fell to a day low of 107.43 usd as the greenback later trengthened against major currencies after central banks announced coordinated central bank action to shore up liquidity.
· Crude oil has become linked to the greenback's value, as it becomes relatively cheap or more expensive for those trading in other currencies when the dollar moves.
· Oil prices have soared over 100 pct since mid-January 2007. Analysts agree that supply/demand balance has got tighter but they say the latest rally, which has seen WTI rise 15 pct in one month is mostly down to speculative interest from investors keen on diversifying their portfolios amid economic turmoil.
· International Energy Agency (IEA) today reduced its demand forecast slightly for this year by 100,000 bpd, which was widely expected, because of downward pressures from weaker economic growth in the OECD.
· The agency, an advisor to 27 industrialised nations, cut its forecast for 2008 demand by 80,000 barrels a day to 87.54 mln bpd, leaving annual demand growth at 2 pct, in a monthly report.
· Most analysts agree that demand is likely to take a hit if market weakness persists, but this belief is doing little to stop the crude oil price rally for now.
· Citigroup analyst Tim Evans warned, however, that current higher prices could end up destroying demand.
· Looking ahead, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release its weekly inventory numbers tomorrow, which could provide some price direction.
· Early estimates show analysts expect crude stocks in the world's top consumer to have risen last week and gasoline stocks fell for the first time in eighteen weeks.
MCX Crude Oil March
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Crude Oil March: Buy at 4330 Target 4420 and 4500 Stop loss 4280
MCX Natural gas March
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Natural Gas March: Buy at 400 Target 410 and 415 Stop loss 396.80
MCXARUN
9994500540
Wednesday, March 12, 2008
Base metals intraday
· The U.S. Census Bureau said that exports increased by $2.4 billion in January to $148.2 billion while imports increased by $2.7 billion to $206.4 billion. The result was $58.2 billion of net imports in January, up from $57.9 billion in December.
Major Headline:
· Copper rose on concern that supplies may trail demand as investors snap up commodities to
hedge against inflation and labor unrest threatens production.
· The dollar fell to a record low against the euro today, renewing interest in raw materials as an inflation hedge. A strike in Papua New Guinea halted work at a mine that accounts for about 1 percent of world supply. Before today, copper surged 25 percent this year as China, the world's biggest consumer of the metal, coped with output disruptions at smelters.
· Employees at the mine stopped work today to demand more pay, the mine produced 169,184 metric tons of copper in concentrate last year, equal to about 1 percent of world mine supply. Concentrate is a semi-processed material sent to smelters.
· Copper has gained for six consecutive years as demand from China, the world's largest user of the metal, expanded. Higher copper prices boosted profit at miners including Rio Tinto Group and Xstrata Plc. World mine output was 15.8 million tons, according to Lisbon-based International Copper Study Group.
· The strike at Ok Tedi is ``illegal,'' Mills said. The stoppage has affected mining and milling operations as well as concentrate handling and shipping at Kiunga port.
· Copper stockpiles monitored by the LME dropped 1.3 percent to 130,250 tons, the exchange said today, to the lowest since Aug. 24. Including those tracked by the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, they stood at 194,447 tons, enough for 3.8 days of global consumption. Last year's average was 4.9 days.
· Nickel fell for a second day on the LME as analysts and users said the rally over the past three weeks wasn't justified by demand.
· Demand for nickel outside of Europe is ``weak,’’ the metal, used in stainless steel, passed $35,000 a metric ton on March 6, the highest since July. Nickel's 14-day relative strength index, a measure of momentum, was above 70 all last week, a level that typically indicates prices may decline.
· Taiyuan Iron & Steel Group, parent of China's biggest stainless-steel maker, said nickel's rally this year is driven by investors rather than demand from mills.
LME Inventory update (11 March, 2008)
copper -1675
alum +8625
zinc +25
nickel +96
lead +100
MCX Copper April
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Copper April: Sell at 338 Target 332 and 330 Stop loss 341.10
MCX Zinc March
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Zinc March: Sell at 105.50 Target 102 and 100 Stop loss 107.10
MCX Nickel March
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Nickel March: Sell at 1330 Target 1280 and 1260 Stop loss 1352
MCX Lead Feb
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Lead March: Sell at 123.50 Target 120 and 118 Stop loss 125.20
MCXARUN
9994500540
Major Headline:
· Copper rose on concern that supplies may trail demand as investors snap up commodities to
hedge against inflation and labor unrest threatens production.
· The dollar fell to a record low against the euro today, renewing interest in raw materials as an inflation hedge. A strike in Papua New Guinea halted work at a mine that accounts for about 1 percent of world supply. Before today, copper surged 25 percent this year as China, the world's biggest consumer of the metal, coped with output disruptions at smelters.
· Employees at the mine stopped work today to demand more pay, the mine produced 169,184 metric tons of copper in concentrate last year, equal to about 1 percent of world mine supply. Concentrate is a semi-processed material sent to smelters.
· Copper has gained for six consecutive years as demand from China, the world's largest user of the metal, expanded. Higher copper prices boosted profit at miners including Rio Tinto Group and Xstrata Plc. World mine output was 15.8 million tons, according to Lisbon-based International Copper Study Group.
· The strike at Ok Tedi is ``illegal,'' Mills said. The stoppage has affected mining and milling operations as well as concentrate handling and shipping at Kiunga port.
· Copper stockpiles monitored by the LME dropped 1.3 percent to 130,250 tons, the exchange said today, to the lowest since Aug. 24. Including those tracked by the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, they stood at 194,447 tons, enough for 3.8 days of global consumption. Last year's average was 4.9 days.
· Nickel fell for a second day on the LME as analysts and users said the rally over the past three weeks wasn't justified by demand.
· Demand for nickel outside of Europe is ``weak,’’ the metal, used in stainless steel, passed $35,000 a metric ton on March 6, the highest since July. Nickel's 14-day relative strength index, a measure of momentum, was above 70 all last week, a level that typically indicates prices may decline.
· Taiyuan Iron & Steel Group, parent of China's biggest stainless-steel maker, said nickel's rally this year is driven by investors rather than demand from mills.
LME Inventory update (11 March, 2008)
copper -1675
alum +8625
zinc +25
nickel +96
lead +100
MCX Copper April
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Copper April: Sell at 338 Target 332 and 330 Stop loss 341.10
MCX Zinc March
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Zinc March: Sell at 105.50 Target 102 and 100 Stop loss 107.10
MCX Nickel March
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Nickel March: Sell at 1330 Target 1280 and 1260 Stop loss 1352
MCX Lead Feb
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Lead March: Sell at 123.50 Target 120 and 118 Stop loss 125.20
MCXARUN
9994500540
Bullion intraday
· Gold was little changed in Asia, underpinned by inflation concerns as crude oil traded near a record and demand for safe-haven assets amid speculation credit- market losses may increase.
· Goldcorp Inc expects the price of gold to top $1,000 an ounce and stay there for a long time, a development that will allow the company to improve operating margins, Chief Executive Kevin McArthur said on Monday.
· In a wide-ranging interview at the Reuters Global Mining Summit, McArthur, who is also president of the Canadian gold producer, said he thinks the price of gold, which was at $973 an ounce on Monday, is not "anywhere near a bubble."
· Dollar was on the back foot against the pound and the euro, it remained relatively firm against the yen as risk appetite picked up, partly driven by rumours the US Federal Reserve is considering a series of new measures to improve conditions in the credit markets.
· The Fed is widely expected to cut US interest rates by 75 basis points when it meets next week but reports are now circulating that it could also implement a series of other measures to improve liquidity conditions. These include the Fed purchasing mortgage-backed securities issues and offering to lend directly to non-banks. These reports have helped lift stocks markets in Asia and Europe, pushed up the yields on US Treasuries as investors' worries about the state of the American financial sector subside slightly.
· Ashley Davies, currency strategist at UBS, said the reports could provide the dollar with some short-term support due to the rise in bond yields and drop in concern about the banking sector. However, he said even if the measures do come to fruition they are unlikely to prevent the US currency continuing to depreciate in the medium term.
· The euro was trading just off its all-time record high against the dollar following a stronger-than expected German economic sentiment survey. The ZEW's economic expectations index climbed to -32.0 in March from February's -39.5, much stronger than the -40.0 analysts had been forecasting. This helped the euro regain its upward momentum against the dollar, soaring to a fresh all-time high of 1.5495 usd on the back of the news.
· Analysts said the firmer-than-expected reading indicates that investors in the euro zone's largest economy are becoming a touch more optimistic that they can avoid the worst of the fallout from the US slowdown.
MCX Gold Apr
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Gold April: Buy at 12650 Target 12715 and 12760 Stop loss at 12615
MCX Silver May
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Silver May: Buy at 25350 Target 25800 and 26000 Stop loss 25115
MCXARUN
9994500540
· Goldcorp Inc expects the price of gold to top $1,000 an ounce and stay there for a long time, a development that will allow the company to improve operating margins, Chief Executive Kevin McArthur said on Monday.
· In a wide-ranging interview at the Reuters Global Mining Summit, McArthur, who is also president of the Canadian gold producer, said he thinks the price of gold, which was at $973 an ounce on Monday, is not "anywhere near a bubble."
· Dollar was on the back foot against the pound and the euro, it remained relatively firm against the yen as risk appetite picked up, partly driven by rumours the US Federal Reserve is considering a series of new measures to improve conditions in the credit markets.
· The Fed is widely expected to cut US interest rates by 75 basis points when it meets next week but reports are now circulating that it could also implement a series of other measures to improve liquidity conditions. These include the Fed purchasing mortgage-backed securities issues and offering to lend directly to non-banks. These reports have helped lift stocks markets in Asia and Europe, pushed up the yields on US Treasuries as investors' worries about the state of the American financial sector subside slightly.
· Ashley Davies, currency strategist at UBS, said the reports could provide the dollar with some short-term support due to the rise in bond yields and drop in concern about the banking sector. However, he said even if the measures do come to fruition they are unlikely to prevent the US currency continuing to depreciate in the medium term.
· The euro was trading just off its all-time record high against the dollar following a stronger-than expected German economic sentiment survey. The ZEW's economic expectations index climbed to -32.0 in March from February's -39.5, much stronger than the -40.0 analysts had been forecasting. This helped the euro regain its upward momentum against the dollar, soaring to a fresh all-time high of 1.5495 usd on the back of the news.
· Analysts said the firmer-than-expected reading indicates that investors in the euro zone's largest economy are becoming a touch more optimistic that they can avoid the worst of the fallout from the US slowdown.
MCX Gold Apr
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Gold April: Buy at 12650 Target 12715 and 12760 Stop loss at 12615
MCX Silver May
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Silver May: Buy at 25350 Target 25800 and 26000 Stop loss 25115
MCXARUN
9994500540
Safe trade
GOLD
for the day sell only below 12550 S/L 12590 and T/p 12510-20/470/400 where might find support again, only sustain fall below 12380 bearish sharp OR buy only abv 12800-815/835 & more abv 12875 S/L 12760 and T/p 13000 atleast in days to come upto 13075 (any time close above 12875 bullish while close below 10500/10375/12150/ 11875/11575 -475/11300/10950-900/10500/10050/ 9850/9575 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
we book profit on sell below 25800/ 25350, for the day sell only below 25150 -25050 & more below 24850 S/L 25250 and T/p 24500 atleast upto 24200 in days to come OR buy abv 25900 S/L 25825 and T/p 26050-26200/300-400/ uprally, sustain abv 27150 seen new rally (any time close below 24850/ 23090/21990/21250/20150/19390/ 18600-250/17850 bearish rally while close above 26300/27150 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
our T/p exact achieved (4430) book profit on buy abv 4200/4240-50/ 4310/ 4360, for the day buy only abv 4430 S/L 4410 and T/p 4450/80 OR sell below 4280 S/L 4300 and T/p 4250-30/ 4200/ sustain below test 4125-4100 atleast in days to come (now crude need to close above 4430 for bullish rally while close below 4200/4130/4000/3925/3840/ 3790/3635-3590/3475/3395/3350/3090/ 2810 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
for the day sell only below 333.5 S/L 335.5 and T/p 331/328 atleast upto 325 OR sell ard 342.5-343 S/L 343.5 and T/p 338-39/336, only sustain abv 345/ 348.5 uptrend again and sustain abv 354 uprally test 360 atleast upto 365 in coming days (upside strong rally only on close above 354 while close below 333.5/321/311-303/281/267.5/254.5/ 235 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
for the day sell only below 12550 S/L 12590 and T/p 12510-20/470/400 where might find support again, only sustain fall below 12380 bearish sharp OR buy only abv 12800-815/835 & more abv 12875 S/L 12760 and T/p 13000 atleast in days to come upto 13075 (any time close above 12875 bullish while close below 10500/10375/12150/ 11875/11575 -475/11300/10950-900/10500/10050/ 9850/9575 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
we book profit on sell below 25800/ 25350, for the day sell only below 25150 -25050 & more below 24850 S/L 25250 and T/p 24500 atleast upto 24200 in days to come OR buy abv 25900 S/L 25825 and T/p 26050-26200/300-400/ uprally, sustain abv 27150 seen new rally (any time close below 24850/ 23090/21990/21250/20150/19390/ 18600-250/17850 bearish rally while close above 26300/27150 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
our T/p exact achieved (4430) book profit on buy abv 4200/4240-50/ 4310/ 4360, for the day buy only abv 4430 S/L 4410 and T/p 4450/80 OR sell below 4280 S/L 4300 and T/p 4250-30/ 4200/ sustain below test 4125-4100 atleast in days to come (now crude need to close above 4430 for bullish rally while close below 4200/4130/4000/3925/3840/ 3790/3635-3590/3475/3395/3350/3090/ 2810 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
for the day sell only below 333.5 S/L 335.5 and T/p 331/328 atleast upto 325 OR sell ard 342.5-343 S/L 343.5 and T/p 338-39/336, only sustain abv 345/ 348.5 uptrend again and sustain abv 354 uprally test 360 atleast upto 365 in coming days (upside strong rally only on close above 354 while close below 333.5/321/311-303/281/267.5/254.5/ 235 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
Technicals – MCX (Intra day calls)
CRUDE OIL (March) BULLISH ABOVE 4367BEARISH BELOW 4348
GOLD (April) BULLISH ABOVE 12680 BEARISH BELOW 12640
SILVER (May) BULLISH ABOVE 25575 BEARISH BELOW 25480
COPPER (APRIL) BULLISH ABOVE 337.50 BEARISH BELOW 336.50
LEAD (MARCH) BULLISH ABOVE 122BEARISH BELOW 121.40
NICKEL (MARCH) BULLISH ABOVE 1275 BEARISH BELOW 1268
ZINC (MARH) BULLISH ABOVE 104.20 BEARISH BELOW 103.70
MCXARUN
9994500540
GOLD (April) BULLISH ABOVE 12680 BEARISH BELOW 12640
SILVER (May) BULLISH ABOVE 25575 BEARISH BELOW 25480
COPPER (APRIL) BULLISH ABOVE 337.50 BEARISH BELOW 336.50
LEAD (MARCH) BULLISH ABOVE 122BEARISH BELOW 121.40
NICKEL (MARCH) BULLISH ABOVE 1275 BEARISH BELOW 1268
ZINC (MARH) BULLISH ABOVE 104.20 BEARISH BELOW 103.70
MCXARUN
9994500540
long view
COPPER
LIKELY TO TEST 359-60 UPTO 365 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 354, ONLY CLOSE BELOW 333.5 SOME DOWN SIDE AGAIN(APRIL)
NICKEL
LIKELY TO TEST 1440-1460 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 1415, WHILE CLOSE BELOW 1275 DOWN TREND AGAIN(MAR)
MCXARUN
9994500540
LIKELY TO TEST 359-60 UPTO 365 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 354, ONLY CLOSE BELOW 333.5 SOME DOWN SIDE AGAIN(APRIL)
NICKEL
LIKELY TO TEST 1440-1460 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 1415, WHILE CLOSE BELOW 1275 DOWN TREND AGAIN(MAR)
MCXARUN
9994500540
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