DGCX Gold : Closes lower; volatility continues
13 June 2008 12:48:47
The see-saw movement in gold prices that has been characteristic for this week continued, as the bullion market witnessed heavy selling yesterday. The US Dollar bounced back offsetting Wednesday’s losses, supported by an unexpected rise in US Retail sales.
International spot gold plunged to a low of $856.80 and last quoted at $867.90 ($879.55).
The Commerce Department reported a 1 % rise in May retail sales, the biggest increase recorded since November, letting the US currency to add to this week’s sharp gains.
Early this week, comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke regarding growing inflation fears, which hinted at a possible rate hike later this year, had lifted the dollar against the major currencies.
A rise in pending home sales had also supported the dollar. The National Association of Realtors’ April pending home sales index, which is considered as a leading indicator of existing home sales, rose 6.3% in April.
But report from the Labor Department highlighted the pressures on the US job market. According to the report, initial jobless claims in the US increased by 25,000 to 384,000 in the week ending June 7. The four-week average of initial claims rose 2,500 from the prior week to 371,500. Continuing unemployment claims also recorded a rise of 58,000, to 3.14 million for the week ending May 31, the highest level in more than four years. The four-week average of continuing claims rose by 16,500 to 3.09 million in the latest week.
Also the US trade deficit had widened 7.8% in April to a seasonally adjusted $60.9 billion from $56.5 billion in March, according to the report by US Commerce Department on Tuesday. The growing deficit was driven by a surge in crude oil imports, which eclipsed a significant gain in the nation’s exports.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics of the US Labor Department reported a more-than-expected rise in the unemployment rate in May to 5.5%, against the expected 5.1%. The total number of unemployed persons increased by 861,000 to 8.5 million in May, after seasonal adjustment, as per the government's Household Survey Data.
Eurostat data early last week had shown a slight upward revision of the first-quarter euro-zone gross domestic product, according to which the economy grew by 0.8% against the previous estimate of 0.7%. Year-on-year growth was unrevised at 2.2%.
The ECB on May 5th chose to leave its key interest rate unchanged at 4 %.
According to the data released by Commerce Department, real gross domestic product of the US increased at a 0.9% annual rate in the first three months of the year, slightly faster than the previous estimate of 0.6%.
The recent data from various sectors in the US have given mixed hints regarding the economy.
Last day DGCX Gold Aug traded in the range $878.90 – $859.20 and closed at $873.20 ($884.40).
Weekly Outlook (Spot Gold)
More correction expected below $887. Supports are $881, $875, $864; resistances $900, $908, $917.
DGCX Gold August
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (Aug) - Bullish above $ 873.50; bearish below $ 868.40
MCXARUN
9994500540
Friday, June 13, 2008
lead intraday
MCX Lead trades weak
13 June 2008 10:32:20
MCX Lead June traded weak on Thursday following Lme movement and weakness in other metals. Lead prices dropped to low of 78.40 and closed near 78.85 with almost 3.5% loss. Market registered days high near 82.35
LME Inventory decreased by 300 MT to 74175 MT.
MCX Lead June -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The prices closed below short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading downwards in positive region, showing decrease in bullish momentum.
Technical are neutral to bearish signalling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 77.4 level. if broken can see further fall to 75.9 and 73.4 , If market holds above 79.9 further rally can be seen towards 81.3 and 83.8
Recommendations –MCX Lead June: Sell at 79.80 Target 77 and 75 SL 81.35
MCXARUN
9994500540
13 June 2008 10:32:20
MCX Lead June traded weak on Thursday following Lme movement and weakness in other metals. Lead prices dropped to low of 78.40 and closed near 78.85 with almost 3.5% loss. Market registered days high near 82.35
LME Inventory decreased by 300 MT to 74175 MT.
MCX Lead June -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The prices closed below short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading downwards in positive region, showing decrease in bullish momentum.
Technical are neutral to bearish signalling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 77.4 level. if broken can see further fall to 75.9 and 73.4 , If market holds above 79.9 further rally can be seen towards 81.3 and 83.8
Recommendations –MCX Lead June: Sell at 79.80 Target 77 and 75 SL 81.35
MCXARUN
9994500540
zinc intraday
MCX Zinc June drops to 79.85
13 June 2008 10:31:31
MCX Zinc June dropped to as low as 79.85 and closed at 80.25 with 2% loss from previous closing. Market registered days high near 82.55
Zinc will rise from 2010 as supply declines, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts said. Prices will average $2,315 a metric ton in 2010 and $2,535 in 2011, from a revised $2,139 this year, London-based Peter Mallin-Jones wrote in a report dated yesterday.
LME Inventory decreased by 200 MT to 144550 MT.
MCX Zinc June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The prices closed below short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading downwards in positive region, showing decrease in bullish momentum.
Technical are neutral to bearish signalling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 79.2 level. if broken can see further fall to 78.2 and 76.5 , If market holds above 80.9 further rally can be seen towards 81.9 and 83.6
Recommendations- MCX Zinc June: Sell at 81.50 Target 78 and 75 SL 82.45
MCXARUN
9994500540
13 June 2008 10:31:31
MCX Zinc June dropped to as low as 79.85 and closed at 80.25 with 2% loss from previous closing. Market registered days high near 82.55
Zinc will rise from 2010 as supply declines, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts said. Prices will average $2,315 a metric ton in 2010 and $2,535 in 2011, from a revised $2,139 this year, London-based Peter Mallin-Jones wrote in a report dated yesterday.
LME Inventory decreased by 200 MT to 144550 MT.
MCX Zinc June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The prices closed below short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading downwards in positive region, showing decrease in bullish momentum.
Technical are neutral to bearish signalling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 79.2 level. if broken can see further fall to 78.2 and 76.5 , If market holds above 80.9 further rally can be seen towards 81.9 and 83.6
Recommendations- MCX Zinc June: Sell at 81.50 Target 78 and 75 SL 82.45
MCXARUN
9994500540
nickel intraday
Nickel advances to a three-week high
13 June 2008 10:30:38
Nickel advanced for a second day to a three-week high and is heading for the biggest weekly gain since September, after BHP Billiton Ltd. said it will shut down facilities that produce about 2 percent of world supply.
The earlier-than-planned rebuild of the Kalgoorlie smelter furnace will reduce nickel sales by 28,000 metric tons, and the Kwinana refinery will be closed during the overhaul, the Melbourne-based company said yesterday. BHP is the world's third-largest producer of the metal used in stainless steel.
Nickel has climbed 15 percent since falling close to a two-year low on May 30, while stockpiles of the metal have fallen 10 percent since April 22 when they reached the highest since 1999, according to LME data.
Demand growth for stainless steel from China, the world's largest nickel consumer, is slowing from a year ago as projects for the summer's Olympic Games are completed and the leasing and sale of offices in major cities slows, Jinchuan Group Ltd. Said June 3.
Global demand for stainless steel will rise 12 percent this year to 1.56 million tons, after zero growth in 2007, while supply will increase 9 percent to 1.55 million tons, Merrill Lynch & Co said. May 30.
LME Inventory decreased by 18 MT to 47220MT.
MCX Nickel June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The prices closed above short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading upwards in positive region, showing increase in bullish momentum.
Technical have turned neutral to bullish and market is expected to remain positive above 1076 level. if sustain above this level can see a rally towards 1095 and 1132 , If market sustains below 1039 can see a further fall towards 1020 and 983
Recommendations: MCX Nickel June: Buy at 1030 Target 1070 and 1095 SL 1015
MCXARUN
9994500540
13 June 2008 10:30:38
Nickel advanced for a second day to a three-week high and is heading for the biggest weekly gain since September, after BHP Billiton Ltd. said it will shut down facilities that produce about 2 percent of world supply.
The earlier-than-planned rebuild of the Kalgoorlie smelter furnace will reduce nickel sales by 28,000 metric tons, and the Kwinana refinery will be closed during the overhaul, the Melbourne-based company said yesterday. BHP is the world's third-largest producer of the metal used in stainless steel.
Nickel has climbed 15 percent since falling close to a two-year low on May 30, while stockpiles of the metal have fallen 10 percent since April 22 when they reached the highest since 1999, according to LME data.
Demand growth for stainless steel from China, the world's largest nickel consumer, is slowing from a year ago as projects for the summer's Olympic Games are completed and the leasing and sale of offices in major cities slows, Jinchuan Group Ltd. Said June 3.
Global demand for stainless steel will rise 12 percent this year to 1.56 million tons, after zero growth in 2007, while supply will increase 9 percent to 1.55 million tons, Merrill Lynch & Co said. May 30.
LME Inventory decreased by 18 MT to 47220MT.
MCX Nickel June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The prices closed above short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading upwards in positive region, showing increase in bullish momentum.
Technical have turned neutral to bullish and market is expected to remain positive above 1076 level. if sustain above this level can see a rally towards 1095 and 1132 , If market sustains below 1039 can see a further fall towards 1020 and 983
Recommendations: MCX Nickel June: Buy at 1030 Target 1070 and 1095 SL 1015
MCXARUN
9994500540
copper intraday
Copper fell to the lowest in more than two months
13 June 2008 10:29:57
Copper fell to the lowest in more than two months as the dollar strengthened, curbing demand from investors who buy commodities as a hedge against inflation.
The U.S. Dollar Index jumped as much as 1.1 percent today, rising to the highest level since February. The gauge, which includes the euro and yen among six major currencies, has rebounded 4.5 percent since touching a record low on March 17. Copper lost 7.6 percent in May as inflation concerns eased.
The dollar strengthened as U.S. retail sales advanced 1 percent in May, more than economists forecast, raising speculation that the Federal Reserve will increase borrowing costs as early as August.
U.S. retail sales also rose 0.4 percent in April, higher than first estimated, the Commerce Department said today. The median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 0.5 percent increase in May.
Trading in interest-rate futures shows an 18 percent chance the Fed will raise its target bank-lending rate to 2.25 percent in its next policy meeting later this month, up from no chance a week ago. Futures also show a 55 percent chance the Fed will take that step in August, up from a 6.7 percent last week.
The metal also fell today on concern that slumping global economic growth will cut demand for the metal used in pipes and wires, Selkin said. The price has dropped 17 percent since reaching a record $4.2605 a pound on May 5 on speculation that consumption would decline.
China, the world's largest copper user, reduced imports 9.8 percent to about 198,900 metric tons in May from about 220,600 tons a year earlier, the Beijing-based customs office said yesterday. Imports fell 19 percent from April, the agency said.
LME inventory decreased by 650 MT to 120625 MT.
MCX Copper June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The prices closed below short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading downwards in positive region, showing decrease in bullish momentum.
Technical are neutral to bearish signalling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 332.42 levels. If broken can see further fall to 329.83 and 327.27, If market holds above 334.98 further rally can be seen towards 337.57 and 340.13
Recommendations-MCX Copper June: Sell at 336.50 Target 333 and 331 SL 339.80
MCXARUN
9994500540
13 June 2008 10:29:57
Copper fell to the lowest in more than two months as the dollar strengthened, curbing demand from investors who buy commodities as a hedge against inflation.
The U.S. Dollar Index jumped as much as 1.1 percent today, rising to the highest level since February. The gauge, which includes the euro and yen among six major currencies, has rebounded 4.5 percent since touching a record low on March 17. Copper lost 7.6 percent in May as inflation concerns eased.
The dollar strengthened as U.S. retail sales advanced 1 percent in May, more than economists forecast, raising speculation that the Federal Reserve will increase borrowing costs as early as August.
U.S. retail sales also rose 0.4 percent in April, higher than first estimated, the Commerce Department said today. The median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 0.5 percent increase in May.
Trading in interest-rate futures shows an 18 percent chance the Fed will raise its target bank-lending rate to 2.25 percent in its next policy meeting later this month, up from no chance a week ago. Futures also show a 55 percent chance the Fed will take that step in August, up from a 6.7 percent last week.
The metal also fell today on concern that slumping global economic growth will cut demand for the metal used in pipes and wires, Selkin said. The price has dropped 17 percent since reaching a record $4.2605 a pound on May 5 on speculation that consumption would decline.
China, the world's largest copper user, reduced imports 9.8 percent to about 198,900 metric tons in May from about 220,600 tons a year earlier, the Beijing-based customs office said yesterday. Imports fell 19 percent from April, the agency said.
LME inventory decreased by 650 MT to 120625 MT.
MCX Copper June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The prices closed below short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading downwards in positive region, showing decrease in bullish momentum.
Technical are neutral to bearish signalling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 332.42 levels. If broken can see further fall to 329.83 and 327.27, If market holds above 334.98 further rally can be seen towards 337.57 and 340.13
Recommendations-MCX Copper June: Sell at 336.50 Target 333 and 331 SL 339.80
MCXARUN
9994500540
safe trade calls
GOLD
book profit on sell below 12090-12050, for the day sell only 11950-920 S/L 11980 and T/p 11850/close below 11920 test 11800-700 atleast in coming days OR buy only abv 12275 S/L 12245 and T/p 12325/12375-400 (any time close above 12400/12630/12875/13050/13330/ 13510 bullish while close below 11920/ 11775/11375/11200 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
book profit on sell ard 23860-70/23500-475, for the day sell below 23150-125 S/L 23225 and T/p 23000-25/ 22875/ close below 22875 test 22300-22000 in coming days OR sell ard 23760-780 S/L 23800 and T/p 23650-575/23500, only sustain abv 23900 uptrend again (any time close below 23000-22875/22300/ 21575-500/20400/19250/18775 bearish rally while close above 24750/25500/ 26300/27700 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
for the day buy only abv 5875 S/L 5845 and T/p 5910-5930/5955/close abv 5955 test 6050-6110 atleast in coming days OR sell only below 5765-50 S/L 5785 and T/p 5725-5690 where good support seen, anytime close below 5620 test 5480 atleast/towards 5400 in coming days (now crude need to close above 5960 for bullish rally while close below 5620/5400/5210/5120/5050/4740/ 4450 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
we book profit on sell below 336/334.5, fresh sell below 332 S/L 333.5 and T/p 330.5/326.5/close below 330.5 & 326.5 test 322/315 atleast in coming days OR buy only abv 338.5 S/L 337.4 and T/p 341.5-342.25/344-346.25/347.5/350.5/ 352.5/abv uprally (upside strong rally only on close above 352.5/361.5 while close below 330-326.5/310 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
book profit on sell below 12090-12050, for the day sell only 11950-920 S/L 11980 and T/p 11850/close below 11920 test 11800-700 atleast in coming days OR buy only abv 12275 S/L 12245 and T/p 12325/12375-400 (any time close above 12400/12630/12875/13050/13330/ 13510 bullish while close below 11920/ 11775/11375/11200 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
book profit on sell ard 23860-70/23500-475, for the day sell below 23150-125 S/L 23225 and T/p 23000-25/ 22875/ close below 22875 test 22300-22000 in coming days OR sell ard 23760-780 S/L 23800 and T/p 23650-575/23500, only sustain abv 23900 uptrend again (any time close below 23000-22875/22300/ 21575-500/20400/19250/18775 bearish rally while close above 24750/25500/ 26300/27700 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
for the day buy only abv 5875 S/L 5845 and T/p 5910-5930/5955/close abv 5955 test 6050-6110 atleast in coming days OR sell only below 5765-50 S/L 5785 and T/p 5725-5690 where good support seen, anytime close below 5620 test 5480 atleast/towards 5400 in coming days (now crude need to close above 5960 for bullish rally while close below 5620/5400/5210/5120/5050/4740/ 4450 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
we book profit on sell below 336/334.5, fresh sell below 332 S/L 333.5 and T/p 330.5/326.5/close below 330.5 & 326.5 test 322/315 atleast in coming days OR buy only abv 338.5 S/L 337.4 and T/p 341.5-342.25/344-346.25/347.5/350.5/ 352.5/abv uprally (upside strong rally only on close above 352.5/361.5 while close below 330-326.5/310 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
long view calls
SPOT GOLD INTERNATIONAL
LIKELY TO TEST $ 830 - 815 UPTO $ 800 WITH ANY BREAK & SUSTAIN CLOSE BELOW $ 856 & 845, WHILE CLOSE ABOVE $ 909 & 936 TOWARDS 950-55 AND CLOSE ABOVE 955 RALLY TOWARDS TEST $ 980 - $ 1000 ATLEAST IN COMING DAYS
SPOT SILVER INTERNATIONAL
LIKELY TO TEST $ 15.50-15.40/15.15 UPTO $ 14.90 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW $ 16.20 & 15.95, WHILE CLOSE ABOVE $ 17.70 / 18.30 & 18.75 UPRALLY TEST $ 19.25-30 UPTO $ 19.90 IN COMING DAYS
MCXARUN
9994500540
LIKELY TO TEST $ 830 - 815 UPTO $ 800 WITH ANY BREAK & SUSTAIN CLOSE BELOW $ 856 & 845, WHILE CLOSE ABOVE $ 909 & 936 TOWARDS 950-55 AND CLOSE ABOVE 955 RALLY TOWARDS TEST $ 980 - $ 1000 ATLEAST IN COMING DAYS
SPOT SILVER INTERNATIONAL
LIKELY TO TEST $ 15.50-15.40/15.15 UPTO $ 14.90 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW $ 16.20 & 15.95, WHILE CLOSE ABOVE $ 17.70 / 18.30 & 18.75 UPRALLY TEST $ 19.25-30 UPTO $ 19.90 IN COMING DAYS
MCXARUN
9994500540
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
The US dollar is at an infection point and is nearing the key medium term supports. Euro/Usd it is 1.5360, gbp/usd it is 1.9320, usd/jpy 108.70. The same is with all the metals. They have all neared the same yesterday but managed to hold on to the same. Markets will now start taking position for the Fed meeting on 24-25th June. There will be position squaring and rebuilding which will add to volatility. The G8 meeting today and tomorrow will not have an impact on the metals markets and currency markets.
Technically today’s close and Mondays close are very significant which can set the tone for the rest of the month. Markets are slowly pricing in an October interest rate hike. This is one of the prime reasons for the gains in the US dollar. If expectations of an interest rate hike by the Fed in October diminishes over the next few weeks then the US dollar will weaken.
COPPER -- JULY FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $363.0
As long as copper holds the $347-$350 zone it will target $363 and $372.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $131.60
Investors continue to buy crude oil on dips. Intra day as long as crude oil holds $130.0 it will target $140+.
important news
MCXARUN
9994500540
Technically today’s close and Mondays close are very significant which can set the tone for the rest of the month. Markets are slowly pricing in an October interest rate hike. This is one of the prime reasons for the gains in the US dollar. If expectations of an interest rate hike by the Fed in October diminishes over the next few weeks then the US dollar will weaken.
COPPER -- JULY FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $363.0
As long as copper holds the $347-$350 zone it will target $363 and $372.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $131.60
Investors continue to buy crude oil on dips. Intra day as long as crude oil holds $130.0 it will target $140+.
important news
MCXARUN
9994500540
important news
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