GOLD
price turn exact from our level, for the day buy ard 11480-85 S/L 11475 and T/p 11540-550/11600 OR buy only abv 11730 S/L 11710 and T/p 11770-75/ 11830 upto 11875, only sustain fall below 11450 & 11400 down rally again test 11325-250 atleast in coming days (any time close above 12175/12400/ 13100/13425 bullish while close below 11450-375/11000 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
for the day buy only abv 22400 S/L 22350 and T/p 22475-550 upto 22750 OR buy ard 22000-10 S/L 21975 and T/p 22100-200, anytime sustain close below 21725 & 21325 test 21000-20900 atleast in coming days (any time close below 21725/21325-250/20150/19390/ 18600-250/17850 bearish rally while close above 23425/24000/26100/27500 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
for the day sell ard 4190-95 S/L 4200 and T/p 4165-40/upto 4100 OR buy ard 4054-60 S/L 4050 and T/p 4080-4100/ upto 4125, anytime sustain close below 3985-3960 seen down rally test 3925-3875 upto 3800 in coming days(now crude need to close above 4260-4315/ 4460-85 for bullish rally while close below 3960/3830/3585/3415-3390 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
book profit on buy abv 339-40, for the day buy only abv 342 S/L 340.75 and T/p 343.5/45/347, sustain close abv 343.5 test 350-351 atleast & close abv 354 seen new rally OR buy ard 335-335.1 S/L 334.5 and T/p 337-339(upside strong rally only on close above 343.5/ 354 while close below 327/310.5-303/ 281/267.5/254.5/235 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
Thursday, April 3, 2008
comex gold intraday
Gold prices recovered moderately yesterday following Tuesday’s sharp fall, as the dollar fell against major currencies after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the US economy might contract in the first half of the year. Crude oil futures regaining the bullish momentum also aided the bullion prices.
International spot gold finished $20.4 higher at $903.5 a troy ounce after tossing in the range $905.3 - $881.60.
Gold for June delivery gained $12.40, or 1.4%, to finish at $900.20 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
In testimony to Congress, Bernanke said that the outlook for U.S. economic growth has worsened since January and that the possibility of a recession cannot be ruled out.
Among the economic data released yesterday, the US Commerce Department report showed orders for US-made factory goods for the month of February fell by 1.3%, while shipments dropped 2.1.
The ADP employment report showed that private sector jobs rose by 8,000 in March.
Oil prices in the international markets bounced back after the US energy department said that gasoline and distillate stockpiles fell more than expected. However, US crude inventories rose by 7.4 million barrels to 319.2 million barrels in the week ended March 28.
Light, sweet crude for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchanger settled at $104.83 a barrel, up $3.85, or 3.8%.
The Dollar had risen sharply in the previous day, supported by Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index that recorded an unexpected rise, to 48.6% in March from 48.3% in February.
The weakness in Euro following an unexpected slump in German retail sales and announcement of write-downs by two of Europe's largest banks also encouraged the sentiments in the greenback.
Swiss banking giant UBS and the Deutsche Bank disclosed a combined $23 billion of write-downs for the first quarter, ahead of their scheduled first-quarter earnings announcements. The move raised concerns about European exposure to the US sub-prime mortgage crisis.
According to preliminary data from the German Federal Statistics Office, retail sales slid by 1.6 percent in February compared with January, the largest drop in nine months, and by 0.3 percent on an annual basis.
As per the US Commerce Department release on Friday, inflation moderated in February, with consumer prices rising just 0.1% for the month.
The report from US Labor Department released on Thursday revealed that initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 9,000 to 366,000 in the week ended March 22. However the four-week average of initial claims rose 1,750 to 358,000.
Also continuing claims for benefits fell 5,000, to 2.85 million for the week ended March 15. The four-week average of continuing claims rose 25,250 to 2.82 million.
The US economy grew at 0.6 % annual rate in the fourth quarter according to the Commerce Department estimate made public on Thursday. This was as per expectations and consistent with the two previous estimates, but the slowest pace since 2002.
Medium term outlook (Spot Gold)
Bullish above $916; Resistances are $926, $932, $947, $954, $973, $984, $995, $1002, $1022, $1035, $1052; supports $896, $883. Further up-trend is expected above $954.60.
Last day DGCX Gold June traded in the range $885.70 – $907.20 and closed at $906.60 ($885.70).
DGCX Gold June
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (June) - Bullish above $ 904; bearish below $ 898
MCXARUN
9994500540
International spot gold finished $20.4 higher at $903.5 a troy ounce after tossing in the range $905.3 - $881.60.
Gold for June delivery gained $12.40, or 1.4%, to finish at $900.20 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
In testimony to Congress, Bernanke said that the outlook for U.S. economic growth has worsened since January and that the possibility of a recession cannot be ruled out.
Among the economic data released yesterday, the US Commerce Department report showed orders for US-made factory goods for the month of February fell by 1.3%, while shipments dropped 2.1.
The ADP employment report showed that private sector jobs rose by 8,000 in March.
Oil prices in the international markets bounced back after the US energy department said that gasoline and distillate stockpiles fell more than expected. However, US crude inventories rose by 7.4 million barrels to 319.2 million barrels in the week ended March 28.
Light, sweet crude for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchanger settled at $104.83 a barrel, up $3.85, or 3.8%.
The Dollar had risen sharply in the previous day, supported by Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index that recorded an unexpected rise, to 48.6% in March from 48.3% in February.
The weakness in Euro following an unexpected slump in German retail sales and announcement of write-downs by two of Europe's largest banks also encouraged the sentiments in the greenback.
Swiss banking giant UBS and the Deutsche Bank disclosed a combined $23 billion of write-downs for the first quarter, ahead of their scheduled first-quarter earnings announcements. The move raised concerns about European exposure to the US sub-prime mortgage crisis.
According to preliminary data from the German Federal Statistics Office, retail sales slid by 1.6 percent in February compared with January, the largest drop in nine months, and by 0.3 percent on an annual basis.
As per the US Commerce Department release on Friday, inflation moderated in February, with consumer prices rising just 0.1% for the month.
The report from US Labor Department released on Thursday revealed that initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 9,000 to 366,000 in the week ended March 22. However the four-week average of initial claims rose 1,750 to 358,000.
Also continuing claims for benefits fell 5,000, to 2.85 million for the week ended March 15. The four-week average of continuing claims rose 25,250 to 2.82 million.
The US economy grew at 0.6 % annual rate in the fourth quarter according to the Commerce Department estimate made public on Thursday. This was as per expectations and consistent with the two previous estimates, but the slowest pace since 2002.
Medium term outlook (Spot Gold)
Bullish above $916; Resistances are $926, $932, $947, $954, $973, $984, $995, $1002, $1022, $1035, $1052; supports $896, $883. Further up-trend is expected above $954.60.
Last day DGCX Gold June traded in the range $885.70 – $907.20 and closed at $906.60 ($885.70).
DGCX Gold June
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (June) - Bullish above $ 904; bearish below $ 898
MCXARUN
9994500540
Technicals – MCX (Intra day calls)
CRUDE OIL (April) BULLISH ABOVE 4097 BEARISH BELOW 4080
GOLD (June) BULLISH ABOVE 11623 BEARISH BELOW 11583
SILVER (May) BULLISH ABOVE 22245 BEARISH BELOW 22155
COPPER (APRIL) BULLISH ABOVE 339.70 BEARISH BELOW 338.60
LEAD (April) BULLISH ABOVE 113.30 BEARISH BELOW 112.70
NICKEL (April) BULLISH ABOVE 1159 BEARISH BELOW 1150
ZINC (April) BULLISH ABOVE 94 BEARISH BELOW 93.40
MCXARUN
9994500540
GOLD (June) BULLISH ABOVE 11623 BEARISH BELOW 11583
SILVER (May) BULLISH ABOVE 22245 BEARISH BELOW 22155
COPPER (APRIL) BULLISH ABOVE 339.70 BEARISH BELOW 338.60
LEAD (April) BULLISH ABOVE 113.30 BEARISH BELOW 112.70
NICKEL (April) BULLISH ABOVE 1159 BEARISH BELOW 1150
ZINC (April) BULLISH ABOVE 94 BEARISH BELOW 93.40
MCXARUN
9994500540
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
Bernanke does it again for commodities after he said that the U.S. economy may slip into recession, but said growth should pick up later this year as the impact of interest rate cuts and other emergency steps take root. Nothing special over these comments and that the rise in precious metals and base metals was due to short covering and fresh position building before the March payrolls. Crude oil prices rose sharply after the US inventory numbers. Markets are just searching for an excuse to go long in crude oil and energy prices. It will be volatile trade for the rest of the week in all metals and energies.
March payrolls are expected to be negative 50,000 and if the number comes in lower than expected, chances of a half a percentage interest rate cut will rise and the euro/usd will test 1.60. Precious metals will also rise. The Indian rupee has been volatile against the US dollar following the equity markets. Unless the rupee breaks 40.25 against the US dollar in the short term, the rupee will gain to 39.80 and 39.50. Fridays close will set the direction for the rest of April in all metals and energies.
COPPER -- MAY FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $392.0
Copper has to break $394-$397 for $402 and $409. If copper fails to break $397 then a fall to $379 and $369 is on the cards.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $97.60
Crude oil is bullish over $102.60. Still a sell on rise strategy till $110 is not broken.
MCXARUN
9994500540
March payrolls are expected to be negative 50,000 and if the number comes in lower than expected, chances of a half a percentage interest rate cut will rise and the euro/usd will test 1.60. Precious metals will also rise. The Indian rupee has been volatile against the US dollar following the equity markets. Unless the rupee breaks 40.25 against the US dollar in the short term, the rupee will gain to 39.80 and 39.50. Fridays close will set the direction for the rest of April in all metals and energies.
COPPER -- MAY FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $392.0
Copper has to break $394-$397 for $402 and $409. If copper fails to break $397 then a fall to $379 and $369 is on the cards.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $97.60
Crude oil is bullish over $102.60. Still a sell on rise strategy till $110 is not broken.
MCXARUN
9994500540
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