GOLD
LIKELY TO TEST 11000 WITH ANY CLOSE ABOVE 10720-775, WHILE CLOSE BELOW 10025/9950 TEST 9800-750 ATLEAST(FEB)
CRUDE OIL
LIKELY TO TEST 3950-40000 WITH ANY CLOSE
ABOVE 3850-3890(JAN)
LEAD
LIKELY TO 90/88 UPTO 85 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 95(JAN)
NATGAS
LIKELY TO TEST 267-260 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 275.5, ONLY CLOSE ABOVE 302 SOME UPSIDE AGAIN
ZINC
LIKELY TO TEST 85/82 UPTO 78 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 90.5-89.5, ONLY CLOSE ABOVE 101-105 UPTREND AGAIN(JAN)
ALUMINUM
LIKELY TO TEST 92/90 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 94(JAN)
NICKEL
LIKELY TO TEST 970-75/940 UPTO 900 WITH ANY CLOSE BELOW 1018/1000(JAN)
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Wednesday, January 2, 2008
OUT LOOK
February gold closed lower on Monday as it consolidated some of last week's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a
steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral hinting that a short-term
top might be in or is near. If February extends this month's rally, November's high crossing at 855.00 is the next upside target.
From a broad perspective, February gold needs to close above 855.00 or below 780.40 to confirm a breakout of the late-fall
trading range and point the direction of the next trending move. First resistance is today's high crossing at 847.40 then
November's high crossing at 855.00. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 818.80 then the 20-day moving
average crossing at 812.60.
March silver closed slightly higher on Monday and as it extends last week's rally and spiked above the previous reaction high
crossing at 14.975. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are
becoming overbought but remains bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this
week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 15.220 is the next upside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 15.080
then the reaction high crossing at 15.220. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 14.532 then the 20-day moving
average crossing at 14.517.
February crude oil closed lower on Monday as it consolidated some of last week's rally but remains above minor resistance
crossing at 94.72. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are
overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day
moving average crossing at 91.68 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. A close below the reaction low
crossing at 85.60 would renew the decline off November's high. If February extends December's rally, November's high
crossing at 98.12 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 97.92. Second resistance is
November's high crossing at 98.12. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 93.52 then the 20-day moving
average crossing at 91.68.
February Henry natural gas closed higher on Monday as it extended last Friday's rally above the 20-day moving average
crossing at 7.273. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI
have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at
7.608 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If February renews the decline off November's high, weekly
support crossing at 6.801 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 7.530 then the reaction high
crossing at 7.608. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 7.268 then last Thursday's low crossing at 6.950.
MCXARUN
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steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral hinting that a short-term
top might be in or is near. If February extends this month's rally, November's high crossing at 855.00 is the next upside target.
From a broad perspective, February gold needs to close above 855.00 or below 780.40 to confirm a breakout of the late-fall
trading range and point the direction of the next trending move. First resistance is today's high crossing at 847.40 then
November's high crossing at 855.00. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 818.80 then the 20-day moving
average crossing at 812.60.
March silver closed slightly higher on Monday and as it extends last week's rally and spiked above the previous reaction high
crossing at 14.975. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are
becoming overbought but remains bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this
week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 15.220 is the next upside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 15.080
then the reaction high crossing at 15.220. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 14.532 then the 20-day moving
average crossing at 14.517.
February crude oil closed lower on Monday as it consolidated some of last week's rally but remains above minor resistance
crossing at 94.72. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are
overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day
moving average crossing at 91.68 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. A close below the reaction low
crossing at 85.60 would renew the decline off November's high. If February extends December's rally, November's high
crossing at 98.12 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 97.92. Second resistance is
November's high crossing at 98.12. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 93.52 then the 20-day moving
average crossing at 91.68.
February Henry natural gas closed higher on Monday as it extended last Friday's rally above the 20-day moving average
crossing at 7.273. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI
have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at
7.608 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If February renews the decline off November's high, weekly
support crossing at 6.801 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 7.530 then the reaction high
crossing at 7.608. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 7.268 then last Thursday's low crossing at 6.950.
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energy
MCX Crude Oil Jan trade in a tight range on Tuesday, as major international market remained closed for New Year celebrations. US and UK financial market will remained closed for the day on the account of New Year holiday.
MCX Crude Oil Jan opened at Rs. 3772 per barrel and remained in a tight range of 3770-3780, Similarly MCX Natural Gas Jan contract opened at Rs. 293.50 per mmBtu and remained in a tight range of 292-296.
Iran on Sunday said that it will begin operation of the country's first nuclear power plant in the summer of 2008 using half its 1,000 megawatt capacity. Iran, the second largest Opec producer, already faces two rounds of UN sanctions for its uranium enrichments programme and the announcement may increase tensions with the West.
Geopolitical tensions were already high due to a series of Turkish military attacks of Kurdish militant targets based in northern Iraq and as assassination of former Pakistani Premier Benazir Bhutto led to unrest in the nation raising concerns about stability in the region. However the govt. claimed that normalcy has returned today.
MCX Crude Oil Jan (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies have turned bullish; will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are increasing from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 18-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Crude Oil Jan: Buy at 3740-20 for target of 3815 and 3860 with stop loss below 3705
MCX Natural gas Jan (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are still bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Natural Gas Jan: Buy at 290 for the target of 315 and 325 with stop loss at 280
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MCX Crude Oil Jan opened at Rs. 3772 per barrel and remained in a tight range of 3770-3780, Similarly MCX Natural Gas Jan contract opened at Rs. 293.50 per mmBtu and remained in a tight range of 292-296.
Iran on Sunday said that it will begin operation of the country's first nuclear power plant in the summer of 2008 using half its 1,000 megawatt capacity. Iran, the second largest Opec producer, already faces two rounds of UN sanctions for its uranium enrichments programme and the announcement may increase tensions with the West.
Geopolitical tensions were already high due to a series of Turkish military attacks of Kurdish militant targets based in northern Iraq and as assassination of former Pakistani Premier Benazir Bhutto led to unrest in the nation raising concerns about stability in the region. However the govt. claimed that normalcy has returned today.
MCX Crude Oil Jan (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies have turned bullish; will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are increasing from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 18-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Crude Oil Jan: Buy at 3740-20 for target of 3815 and 3860 with stop loss below 3705
MCX Natural gas Jan (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are still bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Natural Gas Jan: Buy at 290 for the target of 315 and 325 with stop loss at 280
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Bullion
MCX Gold Feb traded in a tight range on Tuesday, as major international market remained closed for New Year celebrations. US and UK financial market remained closed for the day on the account of New Year holiday.
MCX Gold Feb opened at Rs. 10609 prg ten gram and remained in a tight range of 10585 –10625, Similarly MCX Silver March contract opened at Rs. 19422 per kg and remained in a tight range of 19420 –19500.
Wednesday Bullions are expected to remain positive on Weak dollar and higher energy prices following trend from last week. There are many data expected on Wednesday including FOMC Minutes at 15: 00 ET.
Concern about global security issues continues to boost the allure of gold following Bhutto's assassination, the ensuing unrest in nuclear power Pakistan and possible spill over effects into the wider region.
Worse-than-expected US housing data Friday, and the assassination of Pakistani opposition leader Benazir Bhutto last week triggered fresh safe-haven buying late, which added a plank of support to precious metals as the year comes to a close.
MCX Gold Feb (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies have turned bullish; will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are increasing from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 18-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Gold Feb: Buy at 10560-580 for the target of 10680 and 10760 with stop loss at 10520
MCX Silver Mar (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies have turned bullish; will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are increasing from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 18-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Silver March: Buy at 19400-380 for the target of 19640 and 19780 with stop loss at 19280
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MCX Gold Feb opened at Rs. 10609 prg ten gram and remained in a tight range of 10585 –10625, Similarly MCX Silver March contract opened at Rs. 19422 per kg and remained in a tight range of 19420 –19500.
Wednesday Bullions are expected to remain positive on Weak dollar and higher energy prices following trend from last week. There are many data expected on Wednesday including FOMC Minutes at 15: 00 ET.
Concern about global security issues continues to boost the allure of gold following Bhutto's assassination, the ensuing unrest in nuclear power Pakistan and possible spill over effects into the wider region.
Worse-than-expected US housing data Friday, and the assassination of Pakistani opposition leader Benazir Bhutto last week triggered fresh safe-haven buying late, which added a plank of support to precious metals as the year comes to a close.
MCX Gold Feb (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies have turned bullish; will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are increasing from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 18-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Gold Feb: Buy at 10560-580 for the target of 10680 and 10760 with stop loss at 10520
MCX Silver Mar (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies have turned bullish; will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are increasing from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 18-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Silver March: Buy at 19400-380 for the target of 19640 and 19780 with stop loss at 19280
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GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
A happy 2008 to all of you. All the hype at the moment is on gold and not on silver as far as precious metals are concerned. Over the last eighteen months silver got bogged down due to over hype. In 2008, silver is not over hyped and as a result it should find more investment demand as well as speculative interest. Silver will not be affected by losses in base metals in 2008. Silver should outperform gold in 2008. Gold is getting support from geopolitical risk. The difference between 2007 and 2008 will be geopolitical risk. In 2007 geopolitical risk was virtually zero which will not be the case in 2008. Geopolitical risk will only add to the volatility in the precious metals market.
For the rest of the week, all eyes will be on the US dollar. Markets have factored in a quarter of a percentage interest rate cut by the Fed this month. Gold and silver closing on Friday will set the direction for the rest of January. Technically gold and silver are bullish.
Gold needs to break $854 for gains to $880. On the lower side as long as $830 and 819 holds downside will be limited.
SILVER -- MARCH FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT $1482.0
As long as silver holds $1456 it will target $1557 and $1627.0
COPPER -- MARCH FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $307
Copper has to hold $303.20 on closing basis to be in the bullish zone and target $317 and $322. A consolidated fall below $303.20 will result in $292 and $286
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For the rest of the week, all eyes will be on the US dollar. Markets have factored in a quarter of a percentage interest rate cut by the Fed this month. Gold and silver closing on Friday will set the direction for the rest of January. Technically gold and silver are bullish.
Gold needs to break $854 for gains to $880. On the lower side as long as $830 and 819 holds downside will be limited.
SILVER -- MARCH FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT $1482.0
As long as silver holds $1456 it will target $1557 and $1627.0
COPPER -- MARCH FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $307
Copper has to hold $303.20 on closing basis to be in the bullish zone and target $317 and $322. A consolidated fall below $303.20 will result in $292 and $286
MCXARUN
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