Oil futures bounce back above $128 a barrel
06 June 2008 12:30:15
Oil prices climbed over $5 yesterday, erasing two days of sharp losses, and settled above $128 a barrel.
Light, sweet Crude oil July in NYMEX settled at $128.22 ($122.30), after trading in the range $121.61 - $128.38.
US Crude supplies had dropped by 4.8 million barrels to 306.8 million for the week ended May 30, according to the release by US Energy Department on Wednesday, taking the total fall in supplies in three weeks to around 19 million barrels.
Better-than-expected data from the US manufacturing sector early this week had helped to temporarily ease concerns over slowing demand for oil from the largest energy consumer.
Potential supply threats due to geo-political tensions and the Atlantic hurricane season, expected demand from China and OPEC’s unwillingness to increase output despite high prices continue to underpin oil prices.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1st. Arthur, the first Atlantic storm of the season, made landfall on Sunday near Mexico forcing the closure of two export terminals, but afterwards weakened to a tropical depression creating heavy rains in the Gulf of Mexico.
Another attack on Nigerian oil facilities had refocused concerns on immediate supplies. Production was partially disturbed after militants attacked a major oil pipeline owned by Royal Dutch Shell in the Niger Delta last week.
Meanwhile, Iran has cut its crude oil exports by 200,000 barrels a day since February 20 due to a seasonal fall in demand for crude oil during the refinery maintenance period. Iran is the world's fourth biggest oil exporter, currently producing around 4 million barrels a day, of which roughly 2.5 million barrels a day is exported.
On the supply side, ministers from the OPEC have indicated any output increase from the cartel remains unlikely, as it continues to blame record prices on speculation, geopolitical factors and the dollar's decline, rather than a lack of crude in the market.
DWTI (July) traded in the range $122.00 - $128.12 and closed at $128.18 ($122.68).
Weekly Outlook (NYMEX Crude oil July)
$126.49 might act as a major support followed by $125.10, $121.90 and $118.30. Resistances are $130.49, $133.65. Trading below $125 may lead towards $118.30.
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
DGCXCrude (July) - Bullish above 128.90; bearish below 128.20
Friday, June 6, 2008
comex gold outlook (augest)
Gold pares early losses to close flat
06 June 2008 12:27:47
Gold prices closed relatively flat yesterday, as the dollar’s fall against a stronger euro and a bounce-back in oil prices supported the bullion to recover from the early losses.
International spot gold traded in the range $879.80 - $864.45 and last quoted at $877.35 ($877.65).
The euro strengthened after the European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet hinted at a possible future interest-rate hike, amid surging inflation pressures in the euro-zone. According to a preliminary estimate by the statistical agency Eurostat, the consumer inflation hit an annualized pace of 3.6% in May, well above the ECB's target of just below 2%.
Eurostat data on Tuesday had shown a slight upward revision of the first-quarter euro-zone gross domestic product, according to which the economy grew by 0.8% against the previous estimate of 0.7%. Year-on-year growth was unrevised at 2.2%.
The ECB on Thursday chose to leave its key interest rate unchanged at 4 %.
However, data from the Labor market was supportive for the dollar. According to the release by US Labor Department on Thursday, initial claims for unemployment benefits in the US fell by 18,000 to 357,000 in the week ended May 31. The four-week average of initial claims also dropped, falling by 2,750 to 368,500. Continuing claims fell by 16,000 in the week ended May 24, dropping to 3.09 million. But the four-week average of continuing claims rose to 3.08 million, up 15,250.
The Fed chairman Ben Bernanke in a speech early this week had expressed concerns over the in weakness in dollar, and cited it was contributing to an unwelcome rise in US inflation. His comments generated expectations that the Fed might adopt steps to guard against inflation risks.
The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index for May rose to 49.6% from 48.6% in April, against the consensus expectation of 48.7%.
According to the data released by Commerce Department on last Thursday, real gross domestic product of the US increased at a 0.9% annual rate in the first three months of the year, slightly faster than the previous estimate of 0.6%.
Better-than-expected survey on US durable goods orders also underpinned the greenback. Data from the Commerce Department showed new orders for US-made durable goods dropped less than expected 0.5 % in April, against the expectation for a 2.8% drop.
The recent data from various sectors in the US have given mixed hints regarding the economy.
The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's April 29-30 meeting had invigorated worries about the economy. The minutes released last week revealed that the Fed sharply increased its inflation outlook for the current year and downwardly revised the forecast for economic growth for 2008.
Oil prices climbed over $5 yesterday, erasing two days of sharp losses.
Crude oil July in NYMEX settled at $128.22 ($122.30), after trading in the range $121.61 - $128.38.
US Crude supplies had dropped by 4.8 million barrels to 306.8 million for the week ended May 30, according to the release by US Energy Department on Wednesday, taking the total fall in supplies in three weeks to around 19 million barrels.
Potential supply threats due to geo-political tensions and the Atlantic hurricane season, expected demand from China and OPEC’s unwillingness to increase output underpin oil prices.
Last day DGCX Gold Aug traded in the range $883.00 – $867.80 and closed at $878.40 ($882.20).
Weekly Outlook (Spot gold)
Spot gold might get good support at $880. Resistances are $890, $903 and $914; supports $870, $859 and $848. Sustaining above $880 may lead to $914.
DGCX Gold August
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (Aug) - Bullish above $ 882.30; bearish below $ 877.40
06 June 2008 12:27:47
Gold prices closed relatively flat yesterday, as the dollar’s fall against a stronger euro and a bounce-back in oil prices supported the bullion to recover from the early losses.
International spot gold traded in the range $879.80 - $864.45 and last quoted at $877.35 ($877.65).
The euro strengthened after the European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet hinted at a possible future interest-rate hike, amid surging inflation pressures in the euro-zone. According to a preliminary estimate by the statistical agency Eurostat, the consumer inflation hit an annualized pace of 3.6% in May, well above the ECB's target of just below 2%.
Eurostat data on Tuesday had shown a slight upward revision of the first-quarter euro-zone gross domestic product, according to which the economy grew by 0.8% against the previous estimate of 0.7%. Year-on-year growth was unrevised at 2.2%.
The ECB on Thursday chose to leave its key interest rate unchanged at 4 %.
However, data from the Labor market was supportive for the dollar. According to the release by US Labor Department on Thursday, initial claims for unemployment benefits in the US fell by 18,000 to 357,000 in the week ended May 31. The four-week average of initial claims also dropped, falling by 2,750 to 368,500. Continuing claims fell by 16,000 in the week ended May 24, dropping to 3.09 million. But the four-week average of continuing claims rose to 3.08 million, up 15,250.
The Fed chairman Ben Bernanke in a speech early this week had expressed concerns over the in weakness in dollar, and cited it was contributing to an unwelcome rise in US inflation. His comments generated expectations that the Fed might adopt steps to guard against inflation risks.
The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index for May rose to 49.6% from 48.6% in April, against the consensus expectation of 48.7%.
According to the data released by Commerce Department on last Thursday, real gross domestic product of the US increased at a 0.9% annual rate in the first three months of the year, slightly faster than the previous estimate of 0.6%.
Better-than-expected survey on US durable goods orders also underpinned the greenback. Data from the Commerce Department showed new orders for US-made durable goods dropped less than expected 0.5 % in April, against the expectation for a 2.8% drop.
The recent data from various sectors in the US have given mixed hints regarding the economy.
The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's April 29-30 meeting had invigorated worries about the economy. The minutes released last week revealed that the Fed sharply increased its inflation outlook for the current year and downwardly revised the forecast for economic growth for 2008.
Oil prices climbed over $5 yesterday, erasing two days of sharp losses.
Crude oil July in NYMEX settled at $128.22 ($122.30), after trading in the range $121.61 - $128.38.
US Crude supplies had dropped by 4.8 million barrels to 306.8 million for the week ended May 30, according to the release by US Energy Department on Wednesday, taking the total fall in supplies in three weeks to around 19 million barrels.
Potential supply threats due to geo-political tensions and the Atlantic hurricane season, expected demand from China and OPEC’s unwillingness to increase output underpin oil prices.
Last day DGCX Gold Aug traded in the range $883.00 – $867.80 and closed at $878.40 ($882.20).
Weekly Outlook (Spot gold)
Spot gold might get good support at $880. Resistances are $890, $903 and $914; supports $870, $859 and $848. Sustaining above $880 may lead to $914.
DGCX Gold August
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (Aug) - Bullish above $ 882.30; bearish below $ 877.40
energy intraday
Energy
06 June 2008 12:40:18
Major Headlines:
Oil prices jumped Thursday after the dollar fell in response to comments by European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet suggesting the bank could raise interest rates. At the pump, meanwhile, gas prices rose to a new record near $3.99, and are likely to hit $4 soon.
Trichet spoke after the ECB left a key interest rate unchanged amid concerns about inflation. While Trichet said a change in rates was not a certainty, he said some of the bank's governors favor an increase. When interest rates rise in Europe, or fall in the U.S., the dollar tends to weaken against the euro. Many investors buy commodities such as oil as a hedge against inflation when the dollar is falling. Also, a weaker greenback makes oil less expensive to investors dealing in other currencies.
Oil prices ticked higher on bargain hunting after sharp losses Wednesday but fears of lower demand and some potential for the dollar to rise further capped gains. Oil plunged Wednesday to its lowest price since May 15 on fears of lower global demand after recent record prices and as the U.S. reported some of its fuel stocks rose above expectations last week, in a weekly report. Oil is now 9 percent lower than a peak $135.09 hit May 22.
The key demand forecasts from OPEC, the International Energy Agency and the U.S. Department of Energy will be closely watched to monitor the impact of record prices on buying. Meanwhile, global demand looks likely to take a hit, as India has raised petrol and diesel prices, following in the footsteps of Indonesia, Taiwan and Sri Lanka who announced subsidy cuts recently.
Elsewhere, the U.S. currency's recent run higher is also limiting the appeal of dollar-priced oil, and that could well continue with growing speculation the U.S. Federal Reserve may even hike interest rates at the end of the year.
Natural gas in New York advanced amid speculation the warmest weather so far this year in the regions of highest gas use would spur demand. Temperatures as much as 14 degrees (8 Celsius) above normal are forecast for parts of the Midwest and Northeast and linger through June 12.
The Energy Department's Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that natural-gas inventories held in underground storage in the lower 48 states rose by 105 billion cubic feet to nearly 1.81 trillion cubic feet for the week ending May 30.The inventory level was slightly below the five-year average, and well below last year's storage level of more than 2.13 trillion cubic feet, according to the government data.
MCX Crude Oil June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to sideways and the resistance is seen at 5410 levels. If market breaches 5410 may see prices to take further upside towards 5452 and 5489 However if it holds back below 5267 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 5184 and 5123
Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil June: Sell below 5450 Target 5360 and 5300 Stoploss 5490
MCX Natural gas June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 534.60 levels. If market breaches 534.60 may see prices to take further upside towards 541.30 and 545.60 However if it holds back below 521.60 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 519.30 and 513
Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas June: Buy at 526 Target 532 and 540 Stop loss at 522
MCXARUN
9994500540
Specials Columns Global View
Who is to blame for food crisis?
World leaders and the UN are busy searching for the elusive culprit who caused the food woes.
More>
Technical Calls
Energy
Base Metals decline globally
Copper headed for its third weekly decline as the dollar rallied against major currencies, reducing demand for raw materials as an alternative investment. Technical are neutral to bearish signalling sideways to lower prices in the near term.
Oil futures bounce back above $128 a barrel
Oil prices climbed over $5 yesterday, erasing two days of sharp losses, and settled above $128 a barrel.
More>
Top Stories
Crude palm oil Futures back in MCX
Ban by India brings down global rice export
West coast, Bengal to get rains
CBOT rice rebounds on export sales
Gold falls to 3-week low below $ 876
Oil climbs above $ 128 in major one-day gain
How can Fed clean up bubbles after it burst?
How the 'Third World' became 'Emerging Markets'
The culprits behind cotton markets manipulation
A hot destination called India
Oil at $100 a barrel changed global economy
Who is to blame for food crisis?
More >
Market Pulse
Soybean futures extend gains
Soybean futures in NCDEX have extended gains following the price increase in the international market, supported by supply disruption from Argentina and firm crude oil prices.
Export demand push up Maize futures
Maize futures in NCDEX have traded higher on good buying support
LME Inventory
Following are the updates on LME warehouse stock movements
More>
FOREX Reports
Dollar eases on profit booking
The dollar fell against the euro from the weekly high due to profit booking by the investors.
Sterling closes higher on month-end short covering
Sterling rose against the broadly weak dollar on Friday, supported by short covering towards the month end.
GDP data helps Dollar extend gains
The dollar continued its rally yesterday on data that showed the US economy grew in the first quarter faster than previously estimated
More>
06 June 2008 12:40:18
Major Headlines:
Oil prices jumped Thursday after the dollar fell in response to comments by European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet suggesting the bank could raise interest rates. At the pump, meanwhile, gas prices rose to a new record near $3.99, and are likely to hit $4 soon.
Trichet spoke after the ECB left a key interest rate unchanged amid concerns about inflation. While Trichet said a change in rates was not a certainty, he said some of the bank's governors favor an increase. When interest rates rise in Europe, or fall in the U.S., the dollar tends to weaken against the euro. Many investors buy commodities such as oil as a hedge against inflation when the dollar is falling. Also, a weaker greenback makes oil less expensive to investors dealing in other currencies.
Oil prices ticked higher on bargain hunting after sharp losses Wednesday but fears of lower demand and some potential for the dollar to rise further capped gains. Oil plunged Wednesday to its lowest price since May 15 on fears of lower global demand after recent record prices and as the U.S. reported some of its fuel stocks rose above expectations last week, in a weekly report. Oil is now 9 percent lower than a peak $135.09 hit May 22.
The key demand forecasts from OPEC, the International Energy Agency and the U.S. Department of Energy will be closely watched to monitor the impact of record prices on buying. Meanwhile, global demand looks likely to take a hit, as India has raised petrol and diesel prices, following in the footsteps of Indonesia, Taiwan and Sri Lanka who announced subsidy cuts recently.
Elsewhere, the U.S. currency's recent run higher is also limiting the appeal of dollar-priced oil, and that could well continue with growing speculation the U.S. Federal Reserve may even hike interest rates at the end of the year.
Natural gas in New York advanced amid speculation the warmest weather so far this year in the regions of highest gas use would spur demand. Temperatures as much as 14 degrees (8 Celsius) above normal are forecast for parts of the Midwest and Northeast and linger through June 12.
The Energy Department's Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that natural-gas inventories held in underground storage in the lower 48 states rose by 105 billion cubic feet to nearly 1.81 trillion cubic feet for the week ending May 30.The inventory level was slightly below the five-year average, and well below last year's storage level of more than 2.13 trillion cubic feet, according to the government data.
MCX Crude Oil June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to sideways and the resistance is seen at 5410 levels. If market breaches 5410 may see prices to take further upside towards 5452 and 5489 However if it holds back below 5267 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 5184 and 5123
Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil June: Sell below 5450 Target 5360 and 5300 Stoploss 5490
MCX Natural gas June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 534.60 levels. If market breaches 534.60 may see prices to take further upside towards 541.30 and 545.60 However if it holds back below 521.60 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 519.30 and 513
Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas June: Buy at 526 Target 532 and 540 Stop loss at 522
MCXARUN
9994500540
Specials Columns Global View
Who is to blame for food crisis?
World leaders and the UN are busy searching for the elusive culprit who caused the food woes.
More>
Technical Calls
Energy
Base Metals decline globally
Copper headed for its third weekly decline as the dollar rallied against major currencies, reducing demand for raw materials as an alternative investment. Technical are neutral to bearish signalling sideways to lower prices in the near term.
Oil futures bounce back above $128 a barrel
Oil prices climbed over $5 yesterday, erasing two days of sharp losses, and settled above $128 a barrel.
More>
Top Stories
Crude palm oil Futures back in MCX
Ban by India brings down global rice export
West coast, Bengal to get rains
CBOT rice rebounds on export sales
Gold falls to 3-week low below $ 876
Oil climbs above $ 128 in major one-day gain
How can Fed clean up bubbles after it burst?
How the 'Third World' became 'Emerging Markets'
The culprits behind cotton markets manipulation
A hot destination called India
Oil at $100 a barrel changed global economy
Who is to blame for food crisis?
More >
Market Pulse
Soybean futures extend gains
Soybean futures in NCDEX have extended gains following the price increase in the international market, supported by supply disruption from Argentina and firm crude oil prices.
Export demand push up Maize futures
Maize futures in NCDEX have traded higher on good buying support
LME Inventory
Following are the updates on LME warehouse stock movements
More>
FOREX Reports
Dollar eases on profit booking
The dollar fell against the euro from the weekly high due to profit booking by the investors.
Sterling closes higher on month-end short covering
Sterling rose against the broadly weak dollar on Friday, supported by short covering towards the month end.
GDP data helps Dollar extend gains
The dollar continued its rally yesterday on data that showed the US economy grew in the first quarter faster than previously estimated
More>
basemetalos intraday
Basemetals
06 June 2008 12:38:58
Base Metals June 06, 2008
Major Economic Data:
The U.S. Labor Department said that jobless claims were down 18,000 last week to 357,000, lower than expected.
The Bank of England kept its interest rate unchanged at 5.0% and the European Central Bank kept its interest rate at 4.0%.
Germany's factory orders were down 1.8% in April, the fifth consecutive decline. Even so, ECB President Trichet said that the central bank may soon raise the interest rate to restrain inflation. The June euro is steady to higher.
In Canada, C$6.4 billion of building permits were issued in April, up 14.5% from March and the most in six months.
Copper
Copper headed for its third weekly decline as the dollar rallied against major currencies, reducing
demand for raw materials as an alternative investment.
Copper has fallen 11 percent from a record $8,880 a ton April 17 as inflationary pressures raise speculation central banks may tighten monetary policy, which may slow economic growth
and curb demand for the metal, according to Michael Widmer, director of metals research at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.
Copper may decline next week on expectations that slowing global economic expansion will curb
growth in demand for the metal. Eleven of 18 analysts and traders surveyed yesterday
forecast copper will decline next week. Five expected a gain and two were neutral. Copper for delivery in three months on the LME has fallen 0.3 percent this week, the third consecutive drop.
China, the world's largest user of the metal, will have slower demand growth for the metal this year, London-based researcher CRU and Barclays Capital said this week.
Copper warehouse stock at LME, net change was 1250 MT to 123500 MT
MCX Copper June - Technical Outlook:
Copper headed for its third weekly decline as the dollar rallied against major currencies, reducing demand for raw materials as an alternative investment. Copper has fallen 11 percent from a record $8,880 a ton April 17 as inflationary pressures raise speculation central banks may tighten monetary policy, which may slow economic growth and curb demand for the metal, according to Michael Widmer, director of metals research at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. Copper may decline next week on expectations that slowing global economic expansion will curb growth in demand for the metal. Eleven of 18 analysts and traders surveyed yesterday forecast copper will decline next week. Five expected a gain and two were neutral. Copper for delivery in three months on the LME has fallen 0.3 percent this week, the third consecutive drop. China, the world's largest user of the metal, will have slower demand growth for the metal this year, London-based researcher CRU and Barclays Capital said this week. Copper warehouse stock at LME, net change was 1250 MT to 123500 MT
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. MACD is heading downwards in positive region, showing decrease in bullish momentum. The prices closed above short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears.
Technical are neutral to bearish signalling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 332.90 levels. If broken can see further fall to 328.80 and 325.75, If market holds above 335.95 further rally can be seen towards 340.05 and 343.10
Recommendations-MCX Copper June: Sell at 338 Target 335 and 331 SL 341
Nickel
Nickel prices traded strong on speculative buying following LME prices.
Nickel warehouse stock at LME, net change was 480 MT to 47592 MT
MCX Nickel June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The prices closed above short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading upwards in positive region, showing increase in bullish momentum.
Technical have turned neutral to bullish and market is expected to remain positive above 1008 level. If sustain above this level can see a rally towards 1020 and 1041, If market sustains below 988 can see a further fall towards 976 and 955.
Recommendations: MCX Nickel June: Buy at 985 Target 1003 and 1020 SL 965
Zinc
Hindustan Zinc Ltd., India's largest producer of the metal, lowered prices for the third time in eight days to match global rates.
The price of zinc was cut by 5,000 rupees, or 5 percent, to 92,700 rupees ($2,160) a metric ton.
Zinc warehouse stock at LME, net change was -25 MT to 143625 MT
MCX Zinc June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The prices closed below short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading upwards in positive region, showing increase in bullish momentum.
Technical are neutral to bearish signalling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 83.4 level. If broken can see further fall to 82.3 and 81.3, If market holds above 84.4 further rally can be seen towards 85.5 and 86.5
Recommendations- MCX Zinc June: Sell at 85.20 Target 84 and 83 SL at 85.90
Lead
Hindustan Zinc Ltd., India's largest producer of the metal, lowered prices for the third time in eight days to match global rates.
Lead prices were kept unchanged at 96,700 rupees a ton.
Lead warehouse stock at LME, net change was 1025 MT to 72550 MT
MCX Lead June -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The prices closed below short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading downwards in positive region, showing decrease in bullish momentum.
Technical are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 82.9 level. If broken can see further fall to 81.4 and 79.5, If market holds above 84.8 further rally can be seen towards 86.4 and 88.3
Recommendations –MCX Lead June: Sell at 85.10 Target 84 and 83 SL 86.20
Aluminium
MCX Aluminium traded sideways following tight movement at LME, while today’s SHFE inventory data might give further confirmation to trend while long-term market is still looking positive only.
Alum warehouse stock at LME, net change was -975 MT to 1072400 MT
MCX Aluminium June -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The prices closed above short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading upwards in positive region, showing increase in bullish momentum.
Technical have turned neutral to bullish and market is expected to remain positive above 124.4 levels. If sustain above this level can see a rally towards 125.9 and 127.5, If market sustains below 122.8 can see a further fall towards 121.3 and 119.7
Recommendations–MCX Aluminium June: Buy at 123 Target 124.50 and 126 SL at 121.80
MCXARUN
9994500540
06 June 2008 12:38:58
Base Metals June 06, 2008
Major Economic Data:
The U.S. Labor Department said that jobless claims were down 18,000 last week to 357,000, lower than expected.
The Bank of England kept its interest rate unchanged at 5.0% and the European Central Bank kept its interest rate at 4.0%.
Germany's factory orders were down 1.8% in April, the fifth consecutive decline. Even so, ECB President Trichet said that the central bank may soon raise the interest rate to restrain inflation. The June euro is steady to higher.
In Canada, C$6.4 billion of building permits were issued in April, up 14.5% from March and the most in six months.
Copper
Copper headed for its third weekly decline as the dollar rallied against major currencies, reducing
demand for raw materials as an alternative investment.
Copper has fallen 11 percent from a record $8,880 a ton April 17 as inflationary pressures raise speculation central banks may tighten monetary policy, which may slow economic growth
and curb demand for the metal, according to Michael Widmer, director of metals research at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.
Copper may decline next week on expectations that slowing global economic expansion will curb
growth in demand for the metal. Eleven of 18 analysts and traders surveyed yesterday
forecast copper will decline next week. Five expected a gain and two were neutral. Copper for delivery in three months on the LME has fallen 0.3 percent this week, the third consecutive drop.
China, the world's largest user of the metal, will have slower demand growth for the metal this year, London-based researcher CRU and Barclays Capital said this week.
Copper warehouse stock at LME, net change was 1250 MT to 123500 MT
MCX Copper June - Technical Outlook:
Copper headed for its third weekly decline as the dollar rallied against major currencies, reducing demand for raw materials as an alternative investment. Copper has fallen 11 percent from a record $8,880 a ton April 17 as inflationary pressures raise speculation central banks may tighten monetary policy, which may slow economic growth and curb demand for the metal, according to Michael Widmer, director of metals research at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. Copper may decline next week on expectations that slowing global economic expansion will curb growth in demand for the metal. Eleven of 18 analysts and traders surveyed yesterday forecast copper will decline next week. Five expected a gain and two were neutral. Copper for delivery in three months on the LME has fallen 0.3 percent this week, the third consecutive drop. China, the world's largest user of the metal, will have slower demand growth for the metal this year, London-based researcher CRU and Barclays Capital said this week. Copper warehouse stock at LME, net change was 1250 MT to 123500 MT
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. MACD is heading downwards in positive region, showing decrease in bullish momentum. The prices closed above short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears.
Technical are neutral to bearish signalling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 332.90 levels. If broken can see further fall to 328.80 and 325.75, If market holds above 335.95 further rally can be seen towards 340.05 and 343.10
Recommendations-MCX Copper June: Sell at 338 Target 335 and 331 SL 341
Nickel
Nickel prices traded strong on speculative buying following LME prices.
Nickel warehouse stock at LME, net change was 480 MT to 47592 MT
MCX Nickel June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The prices closed above short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading upwards in positive region, showing increase in bullish momentum.
Technical have turned neutral to bullish and market is expected to remain positive above 1008 level. If sustain above this level can see a rally towards 1020 and 1041, If market sustains below 988 can see a further fall towards 976 and 955.
Recommendations: MCX Nickel June: Buy at 985 Target 1003 and 1020 SL 965
Zinc
Hindustan Zinc Ltd., India's largest producer of the metal, lowered prices for the third time in eight days to match global rates.
The price of zinc was cut by 5,000 rupees, or 5 percent, to 92,700 rupees ($2,160) a metric ton.
Zinc warehouse stock at LME, net change was -25 MT to 143625 MT
MCX Zinc June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The prices closed below short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading upwards in positive region, showing increase in bullish momentum.
Technical are neutral to bearish signalling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 83.4 level. If broken can see further fall to 82.3 and 81.3, If market holds above 84.4 further rally can be seen towards 85.5 and 86.5
Recommendations- MCX Zinc June: Sell at 85.20 Target 84 and 83 SL at 85.90
Lead
Hindustan Zinc Ltd., India's largest producer of the metal, lowered prices for the third time in eight days to match global rates.
Lead prices were kept unchanged at 96,700 rupees a ton.
Lead warehouse stock at LME, net change was 1025 MT to 72550 MT
MCX Lead June -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The prices closed below short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading downwards in positive region, showing decrease in bullish momentum.
Technical are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 82.9 level. If broken can see further fall to 81.4 and 79.5, If market holds above 84.8 further rally can be seen towards 86.4 and 88.3
Recommendations –MCX Lead June: Sell at 85.10 Target 84 and 83 SL 86.20
Aluminium
MCX Aluminium traded sideways following tight movement at LME, while today’s SHFE inventory data might give further confirmation to trend while long-term market is still looking positive only.
Alum warehouse stock at LME, net change was -975 MT to 1072400 MT
MCX Aluminium June -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The prices closed above short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading upwards in positive region, showing increase in bullish momentum.
Technical have turned neutral to bullish and market is expected to remain positive above 124.4 levels. If sustain above this level can see a rally towards 125.9 and 127.5, If market sustains below 122.8 can see a further fall towards 121.3 and 119.7
Recommendations–MCX Aluminium June: Buy at 123 Target 124.50 and 126 SL at 121.80
MCXARUN
9994500540
bullion intraday
Bullion
06 June 2008 11:16:37
Bullion June 06 2008
Major Headlines:
Bullion prices jumped Thursday after the dollar fell in response to comments by European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet suggesting the bank could raise interest rates, in earlier Gold futures fell to a three-week low at New York as a strengthening dollar reduces demand for the precious metal as a hedge against inflation. Silver gained.
Platinum and palladium fell for the third straight day on speculation a slump in U.S. auto sales will erode demand for the metals used in pollution-control devices in cars.U.S. auto sales in May tumbled 11 percent, the most this year and the seventh consecutive monthly slide. Carmakers around the globe account for more than 60 percent of platinum consumption, according to Johnson Matthey Plc, which makes about a third of the world's auto catalysts.
The U.S. Dollar Index, a weighted measure against the euro, yen and four other major currencies rose as much as 0.6 percent today before retreating. The gauge had gained for seven of the past eight sessions. In March, the dollar's plunge to a record helped send gold to the highest ever.
Barclays Capital said gold and other precious metals will be higher than previously forecast and predicted platinum has the ``best'' prospects. Gold will average $890 an ounce in the third quarter, up from an earlier forecast of $860; while platinum will be $2,220 an ounce, from $1,950 previously, London-based analysts including Suki Cooper wrote in a report, Platinum will advance through next year while gold will decline, the report said.
HSBC Holdings Plc's China business said it has become the first foreign bank to win approval to trade on the Shanghai Gold Exchange. China may overtake South Africa as the world's biggest gold producer this year, the nation's demand for gold jumped 23 percent in 2007, making it the world's second-largest consumer, as a booming economy spurs jewelry purchases.
Anglogold Ashanti Ltd., Africa's largest gold company, said output in Ghana will increase 10 percent this year, on higher production at the Iduapriem mine and as it starts an investment program at Obuasi. Total output is expected to climb to 602,000 ounces in 2008,While Ghana's overall production climbed 11 percent to 2.49 million ounces in 2007, AngloGold's output in the country dropped 6 percent because of a national power crisis. Ghana is Africa's second-biggest producer after South Africa
U.S.Economy:
The U.S. Labor Department said that jobless claims were down 18,000 last week to 357,000, lower than expected
Currencies update:
The Bank of England kept its interest rate unchanged at 5.0% and the European Central Bank kept its interest rate at 4.0%.
Euro zone interest rates are now expected to go up 25 basis points next month after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet caught the market off guard by explicitly raising the
Possibility of a rate rise at the July 3 ECB meeting, Trichet said "it is possible" that the Governing Council could increase interest rates by "a small amount" at its next meeting to ensure inflation
Expectations are anchored solidly.
Germany's factory orders were down 1.8% in April, the fifth consecutive decline. Even so, ECB President Trichet said that the central bank may soon raise the interest rate to restrain inflation.
In Canada, C$6.4 billion of building permits were issued in April, up 14.5% from March and the most in six months.
MCX Gold June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to sideways and the resistance is seen at 12269 levels. If market breaches 12269 may see prices to take further upside towards 12357 and 12486 However if it holds back below 12052 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 11923 and 11835
Recommendations–MCX Gold June: Sell at 12290 Target 12210 and 12090 Stoploss at 12345
MCX Silver July - Technical Outlook:
The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 24258 levels. If market breaches 24258 may see prices to take further upside towards 24595 and 25167 However if it holds back below 23349 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 22777 and 22440
Recommendations-MCX Silver July: Sell at 24260 Target 23920 and 23880 stoploss at 24435
MCXARUN
9994500540
06 June 2008 11:16:37
Bullion June 06 2008
Major Headlines:
Bullion prices jumped Thursday after the dollar fell in response to comments by European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet suggesting the bank could raise interest rates, in earlier Gold futures fell to a three-week low at New York as a strengthening dollar reduces demand for the precious metal as a hedge against inflation. Silver gained.
Platinum and palladium fell for the third straight day on speculation a slump in U.S. auto sales will erode demand for the metals used in pollution-control devices in cars.U.S. auto sales in May tumbled 11 percent, the most this year and the seventh consecutive monthly slide. Carmakers around the globe account for more than 60 percent of platinum consumption, according to Johnson Matthey Plc, which makes about a third of the world's auto catalysts.
The U.S. Dollar Index, a weighted measure against the euro, yen and four other major currencies rose as much as 0.6 percent today before retreating. The gauge had gained for seven of the past eight sessions. In March, the dollar's plunge to a record helped send gold to the highest ever.
Barclays Capital said gold and other precious metals will be higher than previously forecast and predicted platinum has the ``best'' prospects. Gold will average $890 an ounce in the third quarter, up from an earlier forecast of $860; while platinum will be $2,220 an ounce, from $1,950 previously, London-based analysts including Suki Cooper wrote in a report, Platinum will advance through next year while gold will decline, the report said.
HSBC Holdings Plc's China business said it has become the first foreign bank to win approval to trade on the Shanghai Gold Exchange. China may overtake South Africa as the world's biggest gold producer this year, the nation's demand for gold jumped 23 percent in 2007, making it the world's second-largest consumer, as a booming economy spurs jewelry purchases.
Anglogold Ashanti Ltd., Africa's largest gold company, said output in Ghana will increase 10 percent this year, on higher production at the Iduapriem mine and as it starts an investment program at Obuasi. Total output is expected to climb to 602,000 ounces in 2008,While Ghana's overall production climbed 11 percent to 2.49 million ounces in 2007, AngloGold's output in the country dropped 6 percent because of a national power crisis. Ghana is Africa's second-biggest producer after South Africa
U.S.Economy:
The U.S. Labor Department said that jobless claims were down 18,000 last week to 357,000, lower than expected
Currencies update:
The Bank of England kept its interest rate unchanged at 5.0% and the European Central Bank kept its interest rate at 4.0%.
Euro zone interest rates are now expected to go up 25 basis points next month after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet caught the market off guard by explicitly raising the
Possibility of a rate rise at the July 3 ECB meeting, Trichet said "it is possible" that the Governing Council could increase interest rates by "a small amount" at its next meeting to ensure inflation
Expectations are anchored solidly.
Germany's factory orders were down 1.8% in April, the fifth consecutive decline. Even so, ECB President Trichet said that the central bank may soon raise the interest rate to restrain inflation.
In Canada, C$6.4 billion of building permits were issued in April, up 14.5% from March and the most in six months.
MCX Gold June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to sideways and the resistance is seen at 12269 levels. If market breaches 12269 may see prices to take further upside towards 12357 and 12486 However if it holds back below 12052 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 11923 and 11835
Recommendations–MCX Gold June: Sell at 12290 Target 12210 and 12090 Stoploss at 12345
MCX Silver July - Technical Outlook:
The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 24258 levels. If market breaches 24258 may see prices to take further upside towards 24595 and 25167 However if it holds back below 23349 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 22777 and 22440
Recommendations-MCX Silver July: Sell at 24260 Target 23920 and 23880 stoploss at 24435
MCXARUN
9994500540
safe trade calls
GOLD
for the day buy only abv 12250 S/L 12225 and T/p 12300-12340/close abv test 12425-12500 atleast OR sell only below 12000 S/L 12030 and T/p 11900-880 atleast/towards 11835-775 in coming days (any time close above 12340/12600/12875/13050/13330/ 13510 bullish while close below 12000/ 11775/11375/11200 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
book profit on buy abv 23650, for the day buy only abv 24050 S/L 23970 and T/p 24150-250/towards 24400 OR sell below 23700 S/L 23770 and T/p 23625-500 where good support seen (any time close below 23100-22875/22300/21575-500/20400/19250/18775 bearish rally while close above 24500/25500/26300/ 27700 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
for the day buy abv 5410 S/L 5390 and T/p 5450-75/upto 5530-60 where good resist seen again OR buy ard 5270-75 S/L 5265 and T/p 5300-10/5340 (now crude need to close above 5475/5730/ 5825 for bullish rally while close below 5210/5120/5050/4740/4450 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
for the day buy only abv 338.5 S/L 337 and T/p 339.75-341/342.5/345.5/347 OR sell only below 334 S/L 335 and T/p 331.5-330.5/below down rally sharp (upside strong rally only on close above 352.5/361.5 while close below 330-326.5/310 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
for the day buy only abv 12250 S/L 12225 and T/p 12300-12340/close abv test 12425-12500 atleast OR sell only below 12000 S/L 12030 and T/p 11900-880 atleast/towards 11835-775 in coming days (any time close above 12340/12600/12875/13050/13330/ 13510 bullish while close below 12000/ 11775/11375/11200 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
book profit on buy abv 23650, for the day buy only abv 24050 S/L 23970 and T/p 24150-250/towards 24400 OR sell below 23700 S/L 23770 and T/p 23625-500 where good support seen (any time close below 23100-22875/22300/21575-500/20400/19250/18775 bearish rally while close above 24500/25500/26300/ 27700 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
for the day buy abv 5410 S/L 5390 and T/p 5450-75/upto 5530-60 where good resist seen again OR buy ard 5270-75 S/L 5265 and T/p 5300-10/5340 (now crude need to close above 5475/5730/ 5825 for bullish rally while close below 5210/5120/5050/4740/4450 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
for the day buy only abv 338.5 S/L 337 and T/p 339.75-341/342.5/345.5/347 OR sell only below 334 S/L 335 and T/p 331.5-330.5/below down rally sharp (upside strong rally only on close above 352.5/361.5 while close below 330-326.5/310 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
The US dollar sank against the euro after the European central bank chief signalled that it may raise interest rates next month. This statement lifted all metals and energies. Unless the Euro zone shrinks for two consecutive quarters, the ECB will not cut interest rates. For the rest of June and till the next ECB meeting, the speech of the ECB chief has to be followed by action. Action in the form of resilient Euro zone growth. If action falls short of words then only the euro will fall against the US dollar.
If the focus of global central banks shifts to managing inflation then short term global interest rates will rise. Gold and other inflation related investments will rise on this prospect. Expectations of higher interest rates will result in more investment flows in these instruments. Crude oil prices have jumped over five percent, corn, wheat soybean etc are higher. The successive higher base is getting lower in these commodities. Last time crude oil fell around $10 was from $119.93 to $110. Now from $135 to $121.60. Crude oil’s lower base is getting higher. Unless this stops inflation related instruments will attract jittery investors.
MCX is launching a crude palm oil futures contract from today. One tick implies the rupee’s one thousand profit/loss. Other details can be checked at the MCX website. Spread traders should look at spreads between crude oil prices and crude palm oil. This should provide an excellent spread trading opportunity. Later on if the government of India restarts refined soybean oil futures then spread trade between crude palm oil futures and refined soybean oil futures will be another excellent medium of investing.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $133.10
Crude oil can target $135 and $144 in the rest of June as long as $119.10 holds.
MCXARUN
9994500540
If the focus of global central banks shifts to managing inflation then short term global interest rates will rise. Gold and other inflation related investments will rise on this prospect. Expectations of higher interest rates will result in more investment flows in these instruments. Crude oil prices have jumped over five percent, corn, wheat soybean etc are higher. The successive higher base is getting lower in these commodities. Last time crude oil fell around $10 was from $119.93 to $110. Now from $135 to $121.60. Crude oil’s lower base is getting higher. Unless this stops inflation related instruments will attract jittery investors.
MCX is launching a crude palm oil futures contract from today. One tick implies the rupee’s one thousand profit/loss. Other details can be checked at the MCX website. Spread traders should look at spreads between crude oil prices and crude palm oil. This should provide an excellent spread trading opportunity. Later on if the government of India restarts refined soybean oil futures then spread trade between crude palm oil futures and refined soybean oil futures will be another excellent medium of investing.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $133.10
Crude oil can target $135 and $144 in the rest of June as long as $119.10 holds.
MCXARUN
9994500540
last day server problem
last day some internet problem in our city,
cause only we couldn't post the tips last day
dear customers,
this blog will be moderate for customers only in very sooner
future service in every half an hour we update the trading tips for metals & energies
GET YOUR PASSWORD SOONER
MCXARUN
9994500540
cause only we couldn't post the tips last day
dear customers,
this blog will be moderate for customers only in very sooner
future service in every half an hour we update the trading tips for metals & energies
GET YOUR PASSWORD SOONER
MCXARUN
9994500540
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