Crude oil Outlook
30 May 2008 11:21:18
Oil prices finished lower yesterday, despite an unexpected drop in US oil inventories.
Crude oil July in NYMEX settled at $126.57 ($130.82), after trading in the range $133.12 - $126.11.
The weekly inventory report by US Energy Department’s Energy Information Administration showed an 8.8 million barrel drop in the nation’s crude supplies to 311.6 million, in the week ended May 23.
But according to the EIA, the drop in crude inventories was due to temporary delays in unloading oil tankers along the GulfCoast, and not the result of increased demand.
Potential supply threats due to geo-political tensions, expected demand from China and OPEC’s unwillingness to increase output despite high prices continue to underpin oil prices.
Another attack on Nigerian oil facilities refocused concerns on immediate supplies. Production was partially disturbed after militants attacked a major oil pipeline owned by Royal Dutch Shell in the Niger Delta on Monday.
Meanwhile, Iran has cut its crude oil exports by 200,000 barrels a day since February 20 due to a seasonal fall in demand for crude oil during the refinery maintenance period. Iran is the world's fourth biggest oil exporter, currently producing around 4 million barrels a day, of which roughly 2.5 million barrels a day is exported.
Oil prices have soared by over 30 percent since the beginning of the year, extending a long-term rally that has seen prices more than double since the beginning of 2007, as market players weigh rising demand against concerns over production.
Expected strong energy demand from China after the Asian nation suffered a devastating earthquake last week and higher gasoline purchases from the United States ahead of the summer driving season have also boosted crude. On the supply side, ministers from the OPEC have indicated any output increase from the cartel remains unlikely, as it continues to blame record prices on speculation, geopolitical factors and the dollar's decline, rather than a lack of crude in the market.
DWTI (July) traded in the range $133.25 - $126.15 and closed at $126.81.
Weekly Technical Outlook
Expecting some correction if trades below 130.49. Supports are 128.30, 126.00; resistances are 133.22, 134.90. Otherwise likely to touch 137.97 and 140.88.
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
DGCX Crude (July) - Bullish above 128.50; bearish below 128.08
MCXARUN
9994500540
Friday, May 30, 2008
comex gold outlook
Gold Outlook
30 May 2008 11:15:50
Strength in the dollar and sharp fall in oil prices pulled down gold prices yesterday.
International spot gold traded in the range $902.70 - $873.05 and last quoted at $876.40 ($900.10).
An upward revision to first-quarter growth in the US helped the dollar to advance against the major counterparts. According to the data released by Commerce Department yesterday, real gross domestic product of the US increased at a 0.9% annual rate in the first three months of the year, slightly faster than the previous estimate of 0.6%.
Better-than-expected survey on US durable goods orders also supported the greenback. Data from the Commerce Department showed new orders for US-made durable goods dropped less than expected 0.5 % in April, against the expectation for a 2.8% drop.
But among data from the US Labor market, the initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose modestly 4,000 to 372,000 in the week ended May 24, according to the Labor Department. However the four-week average of initial claims fell 2,500 to 370,500. Also continuing claims rose by 36,000 in the week ended May 17, reaching 3.10 million. The four-week average of continuing claims rose to 3.06 million, up 18,000.
The recent data from various sectors in the US have given mixed hints regarding the economy.
According to the release by US Conference Board on Tuesday, the consumer confidence index fell to 57.2 in May from a revised reading of 62.8 in April.
However the sales of new homes recovered during April for the first time in six months, rising 3.3% in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 526,000, the Commerce Department reported.
Even so, the housing market worries remained. Standard & Poor's reported that the decline in home prices for 20 US metropolitan areas accelerated in March, dropping 14.4% from the past year.
Earlier, the National Association of Realtors had reported a 1 % drop in the resale of houses and condos to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.89 million in April, from 4.94 million in March.
On last week, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight reported that US home prices fell a seasonally adjusted 1.7% in the first three months of 2008, which happens to be the largest quarterly price decline on record.
The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's April 29-30 meeting had invigorated worries about the economy. The minutes released last week revealed that the Fed sharply increased its inflation outlook for the current year and downwardly revised the forecast for economic growth for 2008.
According to the latest forecast, headline inflation as measured by the personal consumption expenditure price index would rise to a range of 3.1% to 3.4% this year, significantly higher from its previous forecast of 2.1% to 2.4% in January.
Oil prices finished lower despite an unexpected drop in US oil inventories.
Crude oil July in NYMEX settled at $126.57 ($130.82), after trading in the range $133.12 - $126.11.
The weekly inventory report by US Energy Department’s Energy Information Administration showed an 8.8 million barrel drop in the nation’s crude supplies to 311.6 million, in the week ended May 23.
But according to the EIA, the drop in crude inventories was due to temporary delays in unloading oil tankers along the Gulf Coast, and not the result of increased demand.
Potential supply threats due to geo-political tensions, expected demand from China and OPEC’s unwillingness to increase output despite high prices underpin oil prices.
Another attack on Nigerian oil facilities refocused concerns on immediate supplies. Production was partially disturbed after militants attacked a major oil pipeline owned by Royal Dutch Shell in the Niger Delta on Monday.
Last day DGCX Gold Aug traded in the range $905.30 – $878.00 and closed at $881.70 ($904.00).
Weekly Technical Outlook (Spot Gold)
Above $930 likely to touch $936.50, $945, $955; Supports are $921, $914 and $903. Expecting some correction below $914.
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (Aug) - Bullish above $ 888.50; bearish below $ 884.00
MCXARUN
9994500540
30 May 2008 11:15:50
Strength in the dollar and sharp fall in oil prices pulled down gold prices yesterday.
International spot gold traded in the range $902.70 - $873.05 and last quoted at $876.40 ($900.10).
An upward revision to first-quarter growth in the US helped the dollar to advance against the major counterparts. According to the data released by Commerce Department yesterday, real gross domestic product of the US increased at a 0.9% annual rate in the first three months of the year, slightly faster than the previous estimate of 0.6%.
Better-than-expected survey on US durable goods orders also supported the greenback. Data from the Commerce Department showed new orders for US-made durable goods dropped less than expected 0.5 % in April, against the expectation for a 2.8% drop.
But among data from the US Labor market, the initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose modestly 4,000 to 372,000 in the week ended May 24, according to the Labor Department. However the four-week average of initial claims fell 2,500 to 370,500. Also continuing claims rose by 36,000 in the week ended May 17, reaching 3.10 million. The four-week average of continuing claims rose to 3.06 million, up 18,000.
The recent data from various sectors in the US have given mixed hints regarding the economy.
According to the release by US Conference Board on Tuesday, the consumer confidence index fell to 57.2 in May from a revised reading of 62.8 in April.
However the sales of new homes recovered during April for the first time in six months, rising 3.3% in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 526,000, the Commerce Department reported.
Even so, the housing market worries remained. Standard & Poor's reported that the decline in home prices for 20 US metropolitan areas accelerated in March, dropping 14.4% from the past year.
Earlier, the National Association of Realtors had reported a 1 % drop in the resale of houses and condos to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.89 million in April, from 4.94 million in March.
On last week, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight reported that US home prices fell a seasonally adjusted 1.7% in the first three months of 2008, which happens to be the largest quarterly price decline on record.
The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's April 29-30 meeting had invigorated worries about the economy. The minutes released last week revealed that the Fed sharply increased its inflation outlook for the current year and downwardly revised the forecast for economic growth for 2008.
According to the latest forecast, headline inflation as measured by the personal consumption expenditure price index would rise to a range of 3.1% to 3.4% this year, significantly higher from its previous forecast of 2.1% to 2.4% in January.
Oil prices finished lower despite an unexpected drop in US oil inventories.
Crude oil July in NYMEX settled at $126.57 ($130.82), after trading in the range $133.12 - $126.11.
The weekly inventory report by US Energy Department’s Energy Information Administration showed an 8.8 million barrel drop in the nation’s crude supplies to 311.6 million, in the week ended May 23.
But according to the EIA, the drop in crude inventories was due to temporary delays in unloading oil tankers along the Gulf Coast, and not the result of increased demand.
Potential supply threats due to geo-political tensions, expected demand from China and OPEC’s unwillingness to increase output despite high prices underpin oil prices.
Another attack on Nigerian oil facilities refocused concerns on immediate supplies. Production was partially disturbed after militants attacked a major oil pipeline owned by Royal Dutch Shell in the Niger Delta on Monday.
Last day DGCX Gold Aug traded in the range $905.30 – $878.00 and closed at $881.70 ($904.00).
Weekly Technical Outlook (Spot Gold)
Above $930 likely to touch $936.50, $945, $955; Supports are $921, $914 and $903. Expecting some correction below $914.
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (Aug) - Bullish above $ 888.50; bearish below $ 884.00
MCXARUN
9994500540
energy intraday
Energy
30 May 2008 11:01:52
Energy May 30 2008
Major Headlines:
Crude oil fell more than $6 a barrel after the Energy Department said the biggest drop in U.S. oil inventories in more than three years was caused by ``temporary delays'' in unloading oil tankers on the Gulf Coast, Supplies declined 8.88 million barrels to 311.6 million last week, the biggest drop since Sept. 17, 2004, when Hurricane Ivan forced the closing of U.S. oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico.
Crude prices have doubled over the past year due to long-term concerns that rising demand from the developing world could outstrip production increases, leading to a tighter market for oil, Worries about falling gasoline demand in the U.S. and a strengthening U.S. dollar also helped push down prices.
News of Supply disruptions in Nigeria, one of Africa's largest producers and a major U.S. supplier, has helped push oil prices higher over the past year. That contended Wednesday with the growing belief that U.S. demand for gasoline is falling as the average retail pump prices approaches $4 a gallon ($1.05 per liter). That belief was supported by two new surveys showing Americans consuming less gasoline
Nigeria's crude oil revenue fell 16 percent last year from the level in 2006 as sabotage by militants in the Niger Delta region hurt production, and the production in the west African country has fallen 20 percent since early 2006 when the militant group Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta, or MEND, began sabotaging the oil industry in an effort to gain political power and oil wealth for the impoverished area.
Natural gas futures fell after a U.S.government report showed inventories last week increased and The five-year average inventory increase for the week is 92 billion cubic feet,
Gas flow on the Independence Trail pipeline operated by Enterprise Products Partners LP in the Gulf of Mexico, shut April 9, may not resume service until June, a month later than planned, the company said May 14. At full production, the link accounts for 2 percent of U.S. gas supplies and 10 percent of Gulf deliveries,
MCX Crude Oil June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 5285 if market breaches below 5285 may see prices to take further correction towards 5171 and 4969 However if it holds back above 5601 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 5803 and 5917
Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil June: Sell at 5480 Target 5410 and 5340 Stoploss 5530
MCX Natural gas June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the resistance is seen at 509.00 levels. If market breaches 509.00 may see prices to take further upside towards 524.00 and 532.00 However if it holds back below 486.00 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 478.00 and 463.00
Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas June: Sell at 499 Target 494 and 490 Stop loss at 503.50
MCXARUN
9994500540
30 May 2008 11:01:52
Energy May 30 2008
Major Headlines:
Crude oil fell more than $6 a barrel after the Energy Department said the biggest drop in U.S. oil inventories in more than three years was caused by ``temporary delays'' in unloading oil tankers on the Gulf Coast, Supplies declined 8.88 million barrels to 311.6 million last week, the biggest drop since Sept. 17, 2004, when Hurricane Ivan forced the closing of U.S. oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico.
Crude prices have doubled over the past year due to long-term concerns that rising demand from the developing world could outstrip production increases, leading to a tighter market for oil, Worries about falling gasoline demand in the U.S. and a strengthening U.S. dollar also helped push down prices.
News of Supply disruptions in Nigeria, one of Africa's largest producers and a major U.S. supplier, has helped push oil prices higher over the past year. That contended Wednesday with the growing belief that U.S. demand for gasoline is falling as the average retail pump prices approaches $4 a gallon ($1.05 per liter). That belief was supported by two new surveys showing Americans consuming less gasoline
Nigeria's crude oil revenue fell 16 percent last year from the level in 2006 as sabotage by militants in the Niger Delta region hurt production, and the production in the west African country has fallen 20 percent since early 2006 when the militant group Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta, or MEND, began sabotaging the oil industry in an effort to gain political power and oil wealth for the impoverished area.
Natural gas futures fell after a U.S.government report showed inventories last week increased and The five-year average inventory increase for the week is 92 billion cubic feet,
Gas flow on the Independence Trail pipeline operated by Enterprise Products Partners LP in the Gulf of Mexico, shut April 9, may not resume service until June, a month later than planned, the company said May 14. At full production, the link accounts for 2 percent of U.S. gas supplies and 10 percent of Gulf deliveries,
MCX Crude Oil June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 5285 if market breaches below 5285 may see prices to take further correction towards 5171 and 4969 However if it holds back above 5601 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 5803 and 5917
Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil June: Sell at 5480 Target 5410 and 5340 Stoploss 5530
MCX Natural gas June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the resistance is seen at 509.00 levels. If market breaches 509.00 may see prices to take further upside towards 524.00 and 532.00 However if it holds back below 486.00 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 478.00 and 463.00
Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas June: Sell at 499 Target 494 and 490 Stop loss at 503.50
MCXARUN
9994500540
basemetals intraday
Basemetals
30 May 2008 10:36:07
Base Metals May 30, 2008
Major Economic Data:
The U.S. Commerce Department said that real GDP was up .9% in the first quarter and up 2.5% from a year ago, as expected. Nominal GDP was up 4.8% from a year ago, a far cry from a recession.
The U.S. Labor Department said that jobless claims were up 4,000 last week to 372,000, roughly as expected.
The Conference Board said that its index of leading indicators for Australia was down .4% in March to 184.2.
Germany's Federal Employment Office said that the unemployment rate improved from 8.0% to 7.8% in May, the lowest in over 15 years.
Copper
Copper fell the most in four weeks as the dollar rallied, eroding the appeal of commodities as alternative investment.
The U.S. currency rose to the highest level in more than a week against the euro. Treasuries fell on speculation that the Federal Reserve is more likely to raise borrowing costs this year. Before today, copper rose 22 percent this year as the dollar fell 6.7 percent against the euro. Some investors buy copper to preserve value when the U.S. currency declines.
Stockpiles monitored by the London Metal Exchange climbed 600 metric tons, or 0.5 percent from yesterday, to 126,400 tons, the highest since March 13. Inventories have risen 14 percent this month.
BHP Billiton Ltd. may produce less copper in Chile because of power shortages, El Mercurio said, citing Diego Hernandez, president of base metals.
Chile, the world's biggest copper producer, said its output of the metal fell 5.6 percent in April from a year earlier. Production fell to 435,132 metric tons from 460,819 tons in April 2007, the state-run national statistics institute said today in a report distributed in Santiago.
The following table lists China's production of concentrates for copper, lead and zinc in April and for the first four months of this year.
MCX Copper June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 330.5 If market breaches below 330.5 may see prices to take further correction towards 325.8 and 317.5 However if it holds back above 343.6 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 351.9 and 356.6
Recommendations-MCX Copper June: Sell at 338 Target 332 and 327 SL 341.20
Nickel
London Metal Exchange nickel fell through a key support level to near a two-year low Thursday as base metals came under pressure amid elevated crude oil prices, a dollar rebound and limited trade interest at lower levels.
LME nickel fell to $22,300 a metric ton, down 24% this month, and at levels not seen since July 2006.
Nickel has fallen amid continued concern about lacklustre Chinese stainless demand, as well as large stockpiles of nickel concentrate in China.
Nickel warehouse stock at LME, net change was 18 MT to 48522 MT
MCX Nickel June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 945 If market breaches below 945 may see prices to take further correction towards 934 and 915 However if it holds back above 975 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 994 and 1005
Recommendations: MCX Nickel June: Sell at 960 Target 945 and 930 SL 972
Zinc
Zinc slumped by the exchange-imposed daily limit to a record low in Shanghai on speculation demand may be slowing as global inventories climbed to a 20-month high.
Stockpiles of zinc in London Metal Exchange warehouses rose 5.8 percent to 143,500 metric tons yesterday, the highest since September 2006. This is also the biggest gain since Jan. 7. Zinc inventories in Shanghai stood at 69,130 tons last week, 72 percent above a year ago.
MCX Zinc June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 83.0 If market breaches below 83.0 may see prices to take further correction towards 80.9 and 76.8 However if it holds back above 89.3 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 93.4 and 95.5
Recommendations- MCX Zinc June: Sell at 86 Target 84 and 82 SL 87.20
Lead
LME 3-month lead unlikely to suffer more heavy selling short-term, although technical still look bad, MCX Lead June traded towards the low of 83 a kg.
Lead warehouse stock at LME, net change was 1550 MT to 65125 MT
MCX Lead June -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 81.5 If market breaches below 81.5 may see prices to take further correction towards 79.8 and 76.9 However if it holds back above 86.0 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 88.9 and 90.6
Recommendations –MCX Lead June: Sell at 84 Target 81 and 79 SL 85.50
Aluminium
MCX Aluminium dropped below 122 following other metals at LME
Indian aluminium maker National Aluminium Company Co. Ltd. (532234.BY) Tuesday said net profit for the fiscal fourth quarter fell 30.6% on year. Net profit for the January-March period dropped to 4.09 billion rupees ($101.83 million) from INR5.90 billion.
Alum warehouse stock at LME, net change was 4875 MT to 1077175 MT
MCX Aluminium June -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 119.5 If market breaches below 119.5 may see prices to take further correction towards 117.0 and 112.5 However if it holds back above 126.5 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 131.0 and 133.5
Recommendations–MCX Aluminium June: Sell at 123 Target 121 and 119 SL 124.60
MCXARUN
9994500540
30 May 2008 10:36:07
Base Metals May 30, 2008
Major Economic Data:
The U.S. Commerce Department said that real GDP was up .9% in the first quarter and up 2.5% from a year ago, as expected. Nominal GDP was up 4.8% from a year ago, a far cry from a recession.
The U.S. Labor Department said that jobless claims were up 4,000 last week to 372,000, roughly as expected.
The Conference Board said that its index of leading indicators for Australia was down .4% in March to 184.2.
Germany's Federal Employment Office said that the unemployment rate improved from 8.0% to 7.8% in May, the lowest in over 15 years.
Copper
Copper fell the most in four weeks as the dollar rallied, eroding the appeal of commodities as alternative investment.
The U.S. currency rose to the highest level in more than a week against the euro. Treasuries fell on speculation that the Federal Reserve is more likely to raise borrowing costs this year. Before today, copper rose 22 percent this year as the dollar fell 6.7 percent against the euro. Some investors buy copper to preserve value when the U.S. currency declines.
Stockpiles monitored by the London Metal Exchange climbed 600 metric tons, or 0.5 percent from yesterday, to 126,400 tons, the highest since March 13. Inventories have risen 14 percent this month.
BHP Billiton Ltd. may produce less copper in Chile because of power shortages, El Mercurio said, citing Diego Hernandez, president of base metals.
Chile, the world's biggest copper producer, said its output of the metal fell 5.6 percent in April from a year earlier. Production fell to 435,132 metric tons from 460,819 tons in April 2007, the state-run national statistics institute said today in a report distributed in Santiago.
The following table lists China's production of concentrates for copper, lead and zinc in April and for the first four months of this year.
MCX Copper June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 330.5 If market breaches below 330.5 may see prices to take further correction towards 325.8 and 317.5 However if it holds back above 343.6 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 351.9 and 356.6
Recommendations-MCX Copper June: Sell at 338 Target 332 and 327 SL 341.20
Nickel
London Metal Exchange nickel fell through a key support level to near a two-year low Thursday as base metals came under pressure amid elevated crude oil prices, a dollar rebound and limited trade interest at lower levels.
LME nickel fell to $22,300 a metric ton, down 24% this month, and at levels not seen since July 2006.
Nickel has fallen amid continued concern about lacklustre Chinese stainless demand, as well as large stockpiles of nickel concentrate in China.
Nickel warehouse stock at LME, net change was 18 MT to 48522 MT
MCX Nickel June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 945 If market breaches below 945 may see prices to take further correction towards 934 and 915 However if it holds back above 975 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 994 and 1005
Recommendations: MCX Nickel June: Sell at 960 Target 945 and 930 SL 972
Zinc
Zinc slumped by the exchange-imposed daily limit to a record low in Shanghai on speculation demand may be slowing as global inventories climbed to a 20-month high.
Stockpiles of zinc in London Metal Exchange warehouses rose 5.8 percent to 143,500 metric tons yesterday, the highest since September 2006. This is also the biggest gain since Jan. 7. Zinc inventories in Shanghai stood at 69,130 tons last week, 72 percent above a year ago.
MCX Zinc June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 83.0 If market breaches below 83.0 may see prices to take further correction towards 80.9 and 76.8 However if it holds back above 89.3 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 93.4 and 95.5
Recommendations- MCX Zinc June: Sell at 86 Target 84 and 82 SL 87.20
Lead
LME 3-month lead unlikely to suffer more heavy selling short-term, although technical still look bad, MCX Lead June traded towards the low of 83 a kg.
Lead warehouse stock at LME, net change was 1550 MT to 65125 MT
MCX Lead June -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 81.5 If market breaches below 81.5 may see prices to take further correction towards 79.8 and 76.9 However if it holds back above 86.0 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 88.9 and 90.6
Recommendations –MCX Lead June: Sell at 84 Target 81 and 79 SL 85.50
Aluminium
MCX Aluminium dropped below 122 following other metals at LME
Indian aluminium maker National Aluminium Company Co. Ltd. (532234.BY) Tuesday said net profit for the fiscal fourth quarter fell 30.6% on year. Net profit for the January-March period dropped to 4.09 billion rupees ($101.83 million) from INR5.90 billion.
Alum warehouse stock at LME, net change was 4875 MT to 1077175 MT
MCX Aluminium June -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 119.5 If market breaches below 119.5 may see prices to take further correction towards 117.0 and 112.5 However if it holds back above 126.5 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 131.0 and 133.5
Recommendations–MCX Aluminium June: Sell at 123 Target 121 and 119 SL 124.60
MCXARUN
9994500540
bullion intraday
Bullion
30 May 2008 10:37:48
Bullion May 30 2008
Major Headlines:
Gold tumbled the most in a month as the dollar rallied, reducing the appeal of the precious metal as an alternative investment. Silver also declined.
The dollar climbed as much as 0.6 percent against a weighted basket of the euro, yen and four other major currencies on speculation that the Federal Reserve may begin to raise U.S. borrowing costs this year to curb inflation. Crude oil erased an earlier decline after U.S. fuel inventories dropped
European central bankers have expressed ``personal opinions'' to renew an agreement to limit annual gold sales, they agreed to limit their gold sales to 500 metric tons a year through September 2009. The banks probably won't announce their plans until early next year,
Seven interest-rate cuts since September helped send the dollar to an all-time low against the euro and gold to a record, The federal funds rate is at 2 percent, down from 5.25 percent when the Fed began cutting rates in September to blunt the effects of a housing slump and a credit crisis that threatened to push the economy into a recession.
Mining companies may reduce their forward sales by a total of about 10 million ounces this year, GFMS said. They cut a record 14.3 million ounces last year; Gold averaged $923.82 an ounce in the first quarter, compared with $789.31 in the fourth quarter. Miners can agree to sell future production at current prices to protect against losses caused by sudden declines, a strategy known as hedging
Russia's foreign currency and gold reserves, the world's third largest, raised to a record $548.1 billion last week, the central bank said, the value of reserves increased by $7.3 billion in the week ended May 23, Moscow-based Bank Rossii, the central bank, The reserves gained $4 billion in the previous week.
ETF Securities Ltd. said its assets in precious metals reached $2 billion after one year, mostly in gold and platinum, The ETFS Physical Gold exchange-traded fund holds 1.1 million ounces worth more than $1 billion, while ETFS Physical Platinum has 360,000 ounces worth more than $776 million, ETFS Physical Silver has 9.6 million ounces worth about $175 million and ETFS Physical Palladium attracted 199,000 ounces of investor demand worth more than $90 million. The funds started trading on April 23 last year
U.S.Economy:
The U.S. Commerce Department said that real GDP was up .9% in the first quarter and up 2.5% from a year ago, as expected. Nominal GDP was up 4.8% from a year ago, a far cry from recession. The June U.S. T-bonds are steady to lower.
The U.S. Labor Department said that jobless claims were up 4,000 last week to 372,000, roughly as expected. The March eurodollars are lower
Currencies update:
The Conference Board said that its index of leading indicators for Australia was down .4% in March to 184.2. The June Australian dollar is trading lower.
MCX Gold June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 11941 If market breaches below 11941 may see prices to take further correction towards 11782 and 11531 However if it holds back above 12351 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 12602 and 12761
Recommendations–MCX Gold June: Sell at 12145 Target 12020 and 19890 Stoploss at 12195
MCX Silver July - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 22549 If market breaches below 22549 may see prices to take further correction towards 22007 and 21065 However if it holds back above 24033 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 24975 and 25517
Recommendations-MCX Silver July: Sell at 23240 Target 22950 and 22780 stoploss at 23415
MCXARUN
9994500540
30 May 2008 10:37:48
Bullion May 30 2008
Major Headlines:
Gold tumbled the most in a month as the dollar rallied, reducing the appeal of the precious metal as an alternative investment. Silver also declined.
The dollar climbed as much as 0.6 percent against a weighted basket of the euro, yen and four other major currencies on speculation that the Federal Reserve may begin to raise U.S. borrowing costs this year to curb inflation. Crude oil erased an earlier decline after U.S. fuel inventories dropped
European central bankers have expressed ``personal opinions'' to renew an agreement to limit annual gold sales, they agreed to limit their gold sales to 500 metric tons a year through September 2009. The banks probably won't announce their plans until early next year,
Seven interest-rate cuts since September helped send the dollar to an all-time low against the euro and gold to a record, The federal funds rate is at 2 percent, down from 5.25 percent when the Fed began cutting rates in September to blunt the effects of a housing slump and a credit crisis that threatened to push the economy into a recession.
Mining companies may reduce their forward sales by a total of about 10 million ounces this year, GFMS said. They cut a record 14.3 million ounces last year; Gold averaged $923.82 an ounce in the first quarter, compared with $789.31 in the fourth quarter. Miners can agree to sell future production at current prices to protect against losses caused by sudden declines, a strategy known as hedging
Russia's foreign currency and gold reserves, the world's third largest, raised to a record $548.1 billion last week, the central bank said, the value of reserves increased by $7.3 billion in the week ended May 23, Moscow-based Bank Rossii, the central bank, The reserves gained $4 billion in the previous week.
ETF Securities Ltd. said its assets in precious metals reached $2 billion after one year, mostly in gold and platinum, The ETFS Physical Gold exchange-traded fund holds 1.1 million ounces worth more than $1 billion, while ETFS Physical Platinum has 360,000 ounces worth more than $776 million, ETFS Physical Silver has 9.6 million ounces worth about $175 million and ETFS Physical Palladium attracted 199,000 ounces of investor demand worth more than $90 million. The funds started trading on April 23 last year
U.S.Economy:
The U.S. Commerce Department said that real GDP was up .9% in the first quarter and up 2.5% from a year ago, as expected. Nominal GDP was up 4.8% from a year ago, a far cry from recession. The June U.S. T-bonds are steady to lower.
The U.S. Labor Department said that jobless claims were up 4,000 last week to 372,000, roughly as expected. The March eurodollars are lower
Currencies update:
The Conference Board said that its index of leading indicators for Australia was down .4% in March to 184.2. The June Australian dollar is trading lower.
MCX Gold June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 11941 If market breaches below 11941 may see prices to take further correction towards 11782 and 11531 However if it holds back above 12351 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 12602 and 12761
Recommendations–MCX Gold June: Sell at 12145 Target 12020 and 19890 Stoploss at 12195
MCX Silver July - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 22549 If market breaches below 22549 may see prices to take further correction towards 22007 and 21065 However if it holds back above 24033 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 24975 and 25517
Recommendations-MCX Silver July: Sell at 23240 Target 22950 and 22780 stoploss at 23415
MCXARUN
9994500540
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
The crude oil awakening begins as US and UK regulators have started investigating into the rise of crude oil prices. US regulators revealed a wide-ranging investigation into crude oil trading practices amid increasing congressional concern over the role of speculators in record energy prices. Citing unprecedented market conditions, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission said it was breaking with its customary secrecy to disclose that since December 2007 it had been investigating “the purchase, transportation, storage, and trading of crude oil and related derivative contracts”. The statement came as the agency tightened its oversight of oil and energy derivatives markets by agreeing to share more information on traders’ positions in key energy contracts with the UK’s Financial Services Authority.
Politicians are bowing to public pressure as truckers in the UK and fishermen in France have started raising their voice in a big way. These politicians act only when they feel that their power is nearing an end. UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s public rating is at an all time low. The same is with Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president. Crude oil prices along with higher food prices are pinching voters across the globe. Between now and the end of 2009, there are more than fifteen countries moving into general elections. In almost all the countries the chances of the ruling coming into power are very thin unless energy and food prices fall and stabilise. The long term rise in food and energy prices is here to stay, but that does not mean prices rise nearly fifty percent in less than six months.
There could be further profit taking in crude oil prices as traders book profit ahead of the weekend. $120.40 and $124.80 are the key intra day support. This has been the best month for the US dollar in 2008. Unless the US economy stumbles, one should expect further gains for the US dollar in June. Base metals and precious metals can gain today on short covering before the weekend.
COPPER -- JULY FUTURE
Copper needs to close over $356 today else it will fall to $347 (200 day MA) and $336.10. Resistance at $372 and $378.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE
As long as $119.80 holds till next week, downside will be limited.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Politicians are bowing to public pressure as truckers in the UK and fishermen in France have started raising their voice in a big way. These politicians act only when they feel that their power is nearing an end. UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s public rating is at an all time low. The same is with Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president. Crude oil prices along with higher food prices are pinching voters across the globe. Between now and the end of 2009, there are more than fifteen countries moving into general elections. In almost all the countries the chances of the ruling coming into power are very thin unless energy and food prices fall and stabilise. The long term rise in food and energy prices is here to stay, but that does not mean prices rise nearly fifty percent in less than six months.
There could be further profit taking in crude oil prices as traders book profit ahead of the weekend. $120.40 and $124.80 are the key intra day support. This has been the best month for the US dollar in 2008. Unless the US economy stumbles, one should expect further gains for the US dollar in June. Base metals and precious metals can gain today on short covering before the weekend.
COPPER -- JULY FUTURE
Copper needs to close over $356 today else it will fall to $347 (200 day MA) and $336.10. Resistance at $372 and $378.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE
As long as $119.80 holds till next week, downside will be limited.
MCXARUN
9994500540
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