SAFE TRADE

GOLD

book profit on sell below 11775-750, fresh sell below 11700 S/L 11720 and T/p 11650-60/close below test 11450 atleast in coming days OR sell ard 11915-20 S/L 11930 and T/p 11875-825 upto 11775 (any time close above 12000/12300-400/13100/13425 bullish while close below 11715-690/11375/ 11000 bearish for medium term)


SILVER

book profit on sell below 22800, for the day sell only below 22500 S/L 22590 and T/p 22400/close below test 22000/ 21700-800 atleast in days to come OR sell ard 23040-50 S/L 23075 and T/p 22950/22800 upto 22700 (any time close below 22400/22050/21325-250/ 20150/ 19390/18600-250/17850 bearish rally while close above 23400/24275/ 26100/27500 bullish for medium term)

CRUDE

book profit on buy abv 4435/4515/4660, for the day buy only abv 4730-40 S/L 4715 and T/p 4760-90 atleast upto 4820 OR sell only below 4640 S/L 4665 and T/p 4610/4585-75/down rally sharp (now crude need to close above 4740 for bullish rally while close below 4575/ 4470/4365/4260/4080/3960-3905 bearish for medium term)

COPPER

for the day buy only abv 351 S/L 349.5 and T/p 353.5/355/close abv 355.5 uprally test 365 atleast upto 370 in coming days OR buy ard 339.4-339.8 S/L 339 and T/p 342-45/347, close below 338 & 335.5 down trend again (upside strong rally only on close above 355.5 while close below 335.5/327/ 310.5-303/281/267.5/254.5/235 bearish for medium term)


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long view

SPOT GOLD INTERNATIONAL
LIKELY TO TEST $ 970-75 UPTO $ 990 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE $ 953-55, WHILE CLOSE BELOW 897 TEST 885-878 AGAIN

LEAD
LIKELY TO TEST 123-126 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 120.5, WHILE CLOSE BELOW 109/107.5 DOWN RALLY TEST 100-102 ATLEAST

ZINC
LIKELY TO TEST 85 UPTO 82 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 87..5, WHILE CLOSE ABOVE 96.5-98 TEST 102-103 UPTO 107 ATLEAST(APRIL)

ALUMINUM
LIKELY TO TEST 126/128-29 UPTO 131 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 123.5, AND CLOSE ABOVE 132 SEEN NEW UPRALLY. ONLY CLOSE BELOW 117.5/116.5/114 & 113
# DOWN TREND AGAIN(APRIL)

SPOT SILVER INTERNATIONAL
LIKELY TO TEST $ 19.25-30 UPTO $ 19.90 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE $ 18.75

GOLD

LIKELY TO TEST 11500-400 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 11690, AND CLOSE BELOW 11400 ONE MORE DOWN RALLY TEST 11100-11000 ATLEAST... WHILE CLOSE ABV 12300-12400 UPRALLY AGAIN TEST 12700-800 ATLEAST(JUNE)

SILVER
LIKELY TO TEST 24600 UPTO 25000 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 24275, ONLY CLOSE BELOW 22700-550 DOWN RALLY AGAIN(MAY)

COPPER
LIKELY TO TEST 359-60/365 UPTO 370 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 355.5, ONLY CLOSE BELOW 335.5/327/310 BEARISH RALLY AGAIN(APRIL)

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energy intraday

Major Headlines:

· The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) said that crude oil supplies were up 2.4 million barrels to 316.1 million barrels. Supplies of gasoline were down 3.2 million barrels and heating oil supplies were up 700,000 barrels.

· The DOE also said that refinery use jumped up from 81.4% to 85.6% of capacity last week. Over the past four weeks, gasoline demand was up .9% from a year ago while distillate demand was up .5% from a year ago.

* Crude oil was little changed after a government report showed that U.S. oil stockpiles increased and fuel inventories dropped.



* Crude oil declined for the first time in four days on speculation Tuesday 's record near $120 a barrel wasn't justified. Oil reached $119.90 a barrel Tuesday when the U.S. dollar touched an all-time low of $1.6018 to the euro. Unions planning to strike at a 200,000 barrel-a-day refinery in Scotland next week are holding talks with the plant's owners Ineos Group Holdings Plc today after failing to reach agreement yesterday



* Workers are planning to strike from April 27 to 28 at Ineos' Scottish plant, which takes crude from BP Plc's Forties Pipeline System that transfers oil from more than 50 North Sea fields. Oil has also gained because of a supply disruption in Nigeria. Royal Dutch Shell Plc closed 169,000 barrels a day of supply after attacks on a pipeline last week



* Norway, the world's fifth largest oil exporter, would support a lower oil price and doesn't believe the record prices are caused by supply problems, Deputy Minister of Petroleum and Energy Liv Monica Stubholt said



* Natural gas in New York advanced amid increased demand as distributors secure supplies to put into storage in competition with industrial users. On an energy equivalency basis, oil used to heat buildings and run power plants traded at a premium to gas in New York. Gas supplies were depleted to their lowest in almost four years by an extended winter.



* Supplies for the week ended April 11 were 1.261 trillion cubic feet, putting `working gas within the five-year historical'' range for this time of year, the department said in an April 17 report. Inventory fell to 1.234 trillion cubic feet on April 4, the lowest since May 2004, after rising to a record 3.545 trillion in November.

MCX Crude Oil May

Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicator is rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 4736 levels. If market breaches 4736, may see prices to take further upside towards 4765 and 4813, However if it holds back below 4659 and may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 4611 and 4580

Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil April: Buy at 4610 Target 4675 and 4730 Stop loss 4570

MCX Natural gas May

Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicator is rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 442.3 levels. If market breaches 442.3 may see prices to take further upside towards 447.7 and 457.3 however if it holds back below 427.3 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 417.7 and 412.3

Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas April: Buy at 432 Target 439and 442 Stop loss at 427

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basemetals intraday

Major Economic Data:

- Statistics Canada reported that retail sales totaled C$35.5 billion in February, down .7% on the month and weaker than expected. The June Canadian dollar is lower after the Bank of Canada reduced the interest rate yesterday from 3.50% to 3.00%.

- An index of industrial new orders for the Euro area 15 was up .6% in February. Also, an index of services increased from 51.6 to 51.8 in March, better than expected. The June euro is steady to lower.

- Australia's Bureau of Statistics said that the consumer price index was up 4.2% in the first quarter from a year ago, increasing expectations for another rise in the interest rate. The June Australian dollar is steady to higher.

Copper

- Comex/Lme copper is on the defensive amid apparent fund profit taking, Funds have shown an inclination to book profits in copper. MCX Copper dropped towards the low of 342.10 following movement at LME.

- Copper warehouse stock at LME, net change was –1250 MT to 112475 MT

- The metal also fell after a leader of striking workers at Chile's Codelco, the world's largest copper producer, said government-mediated meetings with the state-owned company may resume today.

- The walkout has disrupted output at three mines. Codelco resumed operations at its second largest mine, El Teniente, late yesterday, and said today that it remains open.

- Demand for commodities as a hedge against inflation declined today as the dollar rebounded from a record low against the euro.

- Jiangxi Copper Co., China's second- biggest smelter of the metal, rose to the highest in three months in Hong Kong trading after it posted a higher profit and copper traded near a record.

- China's copper imports may drop further this month after declining 19 percent in the first quarter, a Bloomberg survey shows. The price of copper, used in pipes and wires, has more than tripled in the past four years as China used the metal to
build homes, cars, power grids and other infrastructure.
build homes, cars, power grids and other infrastructure.

- China imported 390,735 metric tons of refined copper in the first quarter, 19 percent less than a year earlier, the Asian nation's customs office said yesterday. China took delivery of 126,421 tons last month, down 7.2 percent from February.

- Imports may drop between 10,000 and 25,000 tons this month from March, according to 15 traders and analysts in China surveyed by Bloomberg News. China accounted for about 24 percent of global demand last year, according to Citigroup Inc.

- Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., the world's second-largest copper producer, said it expects to produce 4.2 billion pounds of the metal this year, less than the 4.3 billion the company forecast in January. Phoenix-based Freeport, in its earnings statement today, said it expects a gold output of 1.4 million ounces, up from a forecast of 1.3 million ounces on Jan. 23.

- Tin rose to a record for a third straight day in London as stockpiles fell to a 2 1/2-year low on greater demand from China, the world's largest user and producer.

MCX Copper April - Technical Outlook:

The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 348.5 levels. If market breaches 348.5 may see prices to take further upside towards 353.6 and 356.8, however if it holds back below 340.3 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 337.1 and 332.0

Recommendations -MCX Copper April: Buy at 346-345 Target 351 and 354 Stop loss at 342.50



Nickel



- MCX Nickel traded lower towards 1136 following other base metals at LME. All base metals traded weak and dipped almost by 2%.

- Nickel warehouse stock at LME, net change was –360 MT to 115640 MT

- BHP Billiton Ltd., the world's biggest mining company, said third-quarter iron ore output rose 22 percent to a record, bolstering its hostile $170 billion bid for Rio Tinto Group.

- Production of the steelmaking raw material rose to 28 million metric tons in the three months ended March 31, from 23 million tons a year earlier, Melbourne-based BHP said today in a statement. London-based Rio last week reported a 16 percent gain.



MCX Nickel April - Technical Outlook:

The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 1135.0 if market breaches below 1135.0 may see prices to take further correction towards 1123 and 1110. However if it holds back above 1160 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 1173 and 1185

Recommendations: MCX Nickel April: Sell at 1155 Target 1135 and 1120 Stop loss at 1167



Zinc



- MCX Zinc traded lower following other metals, market was down by almost 1.5%.

- Zinc production from its Rosebery and Century mines rose to 146,278 metric tons in the three months ended March 31, from 142,525 tons a year earlier, Melbourne-based Zinifex said today in a statement. Lead output fell 14 percent to 12,974 tons, it said.

- Zinc warehouse stock at LME, net change was –800 MT to 129625 MT

- The zinc market may be in surplus ``for the next few years with supplies from mines estimated to gain 7.5 percent a year for the next two years, Citigroup Inc. said in an April 7 report.



MCX Zinc April - Technical Outlook:

The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 87.4 If market breaches below 87.4 may see prices to take further correction towards 86.0 and 84.4, However if it holds back above 90.3 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 91.9 and 93.3

Recommendations -MCX Zinc April: Sell at 90.20-90.80 Target 86 and 84.80 Stop loss at 91.90



Aluminium



- Aluminium remains strong despite other metals dropped. MCX Aluminium traded towards the high of 123.20

- Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd., the country's largest producer of the metal, said its first-quarter sales price for the metal fell 6.5 percent from a year earlier.

- Alum warehouse stock at LME, net change was –25 MT to 1026950 MT

MCX Aluminium April -Technical outlook:

The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 123.3 levels. If market breaches 123.3 may see prices to take further upside towards 124.6 and 126.0, however if it holds back below 120.6 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 119.2 and 117.9



Recommendations -MCX Aluminium April: Buy at 119-118 Target 123 and 125 Stop loss at 115



Lead



- MCX Lead April dipped towards the low of 110.30 following other metals and energy at LME and Comex. While Lme inventory data helped the bearish movement.

- Lead warehouse stock at LME, net change was 725 MT to 53650 MT

MCX Lead April -Technical outlook:

The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.



Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 110.2 If market breaches below 110.2 may see prices to take further correction towards 108.9 and 107.5, However if it holds back above 113.0 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 114.4 and 115.7



Recommendations -MCX Lead April: Buy at 119-118 Target 123 and 125 Stop loss at 115


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Bullion intraday

Bullion Apr 24, 2008

Major Headlines:

Gold fell after energy costs declined and the euro eased from a record against the dollar, eroding the appeal of the precious metal as an alternative investment. Silver also dropped.



* Platinum group metals have sold off along with gold as oil and the euro have declined, and Participants liquidated positions in "dollar-rebound-driven" profit taking that may have also had to do with April coming to an end. "May be some month-end book-squaring going on," the floor trader says in Comex division.



* UBS AG said gold would trade at $850 an ounce in three months, down from a forecast of $1,000. Gold hit a record $1,033.90 an ounce on March 17, when the euro and crude set previous records



* Gold's price declines may be related to the metal's underperformance compared with record highs in the euro and oil set Tuesday, and Gold investors have also been disappointed by a large physical off take out of the world's largest gold exchange-traded fund



* Assets in the StreetTracks Gold Trust, the largest exchange-traded fund backed by bullion, declined to their lowest in a month. Gold held by the company fell 18.7 metric tons to 623.41 tons, the first change since April 9, according to figures on the StreetTracks Web site.



* Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., the world's second-largest copper producer, said it expects a gold output of 1.4 million ounces, up from a forecast of 1.3 million ounces on Jan. 23.



* Silver futures for May delivery dropped 52.4 cents, or 2.9 percent, to $17.10 an ounce. Before yesterday, the metal climbed 19 percent this year. Silver, which has wider industrial applications than gold, has tumbled 5.2 percent in the past five sessions. The price may drop to $15.50 over the next 12 months, Goldman Sachs Group Inc, said in a report on April 17.

Currency Update:

· Statistics Canada reported that retail sales totaled C$35.5 billion in February, down .7% on the month and weaker than expected. The June Canadian dollar is lower after the Bank of Canada reduced the interest rate yesterday from 3.50% to 3.00%.

· An index of industrial new orders for the Euro area 15 was up .6% in February. Also, an index of services increased from 51.6 to 51.8 in March, better than expected. The June euro is lower.

· Australia's Bureau of Statistics said that the consumer price index was up 4.2% in the first quarter from a year ago, increasing expectations for another rise in the interest rate. The June Australian dollar is steady to higher.

MCX Gold June


Technical Outlook: The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.



Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 11615. If market breaches below 11615, may see prices to take further correction towards 11496 and 11340.However if it holds back above 11890, May see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 12046 and 12165



Recommendations–MCX Gold June: Sell at11800 Target11710 and 11620 Stoploss at11870

MCX Silver May

Technical Outlook: The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 22146 If market breaches below 22146 may see prices to take further correction towards 21673 and 21106,However if it holds back above 23186 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at

23753 and 24226

Recommendations-MCX Silver May: Sell at 22790 Target 22600 and 22410 Stop loss at22970

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Technicals – MCX (Intra day calls)

CRUDE OIL (April) BULLISH ABOVE 4703.BEARISH BELOW 4682

GOLD (June) BULLISH ABOVE 11783 BEARISH BELOW 11743

SILVER (May) BULLISH ABOVE 22773 BEARISH BELOW 22690

COPPER (APRIL) BULLISH ABOVE 345.80BEARISH BELOW 344.60

LEAD (April) BULLISH ABOVE 112.10 BEARISH BELOW 111.50

NICKEL (April) BULLISH ABOVE 1150 BEARISH BELOW 1142

ZINC (April) BULLISH ABOVE 89 BEARISH BELOW 88.50

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GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS

The continued rise in food prices is resulting is resulting in workers demanding higher salaries. More than 4,000 workers walked off the job at a privately owned shoe factory in Ho Chi Minh City, demanding higher pay to keep pace with rising inflation, a company official said Wednesday. Workers first stopped working last week at the factory in Vietnam's largest city to ask for an increase in their average monthly salary of $53. If food prices continue to rise at the current pace the food/essentials will become the next gold. Higher food prices should reduce the global savings rate and also reduce demand for consumer electronics and other capital goods which we use in our daily lives. For example, an average middle class salary earning person who buys a home appliance throws the same away when it does not work (instead of repairing the same) and buys a new upgraded version of the same. If food costs rise, then the person will go and repair the home appliance instead of buying the same so that he continues to maintain his normal savings rate. There will be a multiplier effect in the long run if food prices continue to rise.

Over the past few years state run investment to ensure higher crop yields has been minimal. Investors were just focused on sources for alternate fuels such as bio diesel, ethanol and the rest. Food and water are something which humans need to survive. If the masses do not get the same, democratic governments will collapse and there will be political hue and cry. Governments are helpless as the current rise in food prices is due to supply constraints. Paper assets may rise but in the long run gold and only gold will replace the paper assets. The long term collapse of paper assets has just begun. Food prices will only rise due to global warming and move towards desertification of key crop growing areas.

GOLD -- JUNE FUTURE

Failure of gold to close over $931 (on daily basis) by next week will result in fall to $878.20 and $846.80 in May.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE

$115.90 is the trigger point for a sell off. Crude oil has to fall below $115.90 for a sell off else dips will be used as an opportunity to go long.

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