basemetals intraday

Major Economic Data:

- Statistics Canada reported that retail sales totaled C$35.5 billion in February, down .7% on the month and weaker than expected. The June Canadian dollar is lower after the Bank of Canada reduced the interest rate yesterday from 3.50% to 3.00%.

- An index of industrial new orders for the Euro area 15 was up .6% in February. Also, an index of services increased from 51.6 to 51.8 in March, better than expected. The June euro is steady to lower.

- Australia's Bureau of Statistics said that the consumer price index was up 4.2% in the first quarter from a year ago, increasing expectations for another rise in the interest rate. The June Australian dollar is steady to higher.

Copper

- Comex/Lme copper is on the defensive amid apparent fund profit taking, Funds have shown an inclination to book profits in copper. MCX Copper dropped towards the low of 342.10 following movement at LME.

- Copper warehouse stock at LME, net change was –1250 MT to 112475 MT

- The metal also fell after a leader of striking workers at Chile's Codelco, the world's largest copper producer, said government-mediated meetings with the state-owned company may resume today.

- The walkout has disrupted output at three mines. Codelco resumed operations at its second largest mine, El Teniente, late yesterday, and said today that it remains open.

- Demand for commodities as a hedge against inflation declined today as the dollar rebounded from a record low against the euro.

- Jiangxi Copper Co., China's second- biggest smelter of the metal, rose to the highest in three months in Hong Kong trading after it posted a higher profit and copper traded near a record.

- China's copper imports may drop further this month after declining 19 percent in the first quarter, a Bloomberg survey shows. The price of copper, used in pipes and wires, has more than tripled in the past four years as China used the metal to
build homes, cars, power grids and other infrastructure.
build homes, cars, power grids and other infrastructure.

- China imported 390,735 metric tons of refined copper in the first quarter, 19 percent less than a year earlier, the Asian nation's customs office said yesterday. China took delivery of 126,421 tons last month, down 7.2 percent from February.

- Imports may drop between 10,000 and 25,000 tons this month from March, according to 15 traders and analysts in China surveyed by Bloomberg News. China accounted for about 24 percent of global demand last year, according to Citigroup Inc.

- Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., the world's second-largest copper producer, said it expects to produce 4.2 billion pounds of the metal this year, less than the 4.3 billion the company forecast in January. Phoenix-based Freeport, in its earnings statement today, said it expects a gold output of 1.4 million ounces, up from a forecast of 1.3 million ounces on Jan. 23.

- Tin rose to a record for a third straight day in London as stockpiles fell to a 2 1/2-year low on greater demand from China, the world's largest user and producer.

MCX Copper April - Technical Outlook:

The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 348.5 levels. If market breaches 348.5 may see prices to take further upside towards 353.6 and 356.8, however if it holds back below 340.3 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 337.1 and 332.0

Recommendations -MCX Copper April: Buy at 346-345 Target 351 and 354 Stop loss at 342.50



Nickel



- MCX Nickel traded lower towards 1136 following other base metals at LME. All base metals traded weak and dipped almost by 2%.

- Nickel warehouse stock at LME, net change was –360 MT to 115640 MT

- BHP Billiton Ltd., the world's biggest mining company, said third-quarter iron ore output rose 22 percent to a record, bolstering its hostile $170 billion bid for Rio Tinto Group.

- Production of the steelmaking raw material rose to 28 million metric tons in the three months ended March 31, from 23 million tons a year earlier, Melbourne-based BHP said today in a statement. London-based Rio last week reported a 16 percent gain.



MCX Nickel April - Technical Outlook:

The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 1135.0 if market breaches below 1135.0 may see prices to take further correction towards 1123 and 1110. However if it holds back above 1160 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 1173 and 1185

Recommendations: MCX Nickel April: Sell at 1155 Target 1135 and 1120 Stop loss at 1167



Zinc



- MCX Zinc traded lower following other metals, market was down by almost 1.5%.

- Zinc production from its Rosebery and Century mines rose to 146,278 metric tons in the three months ended March 31, from 142,525 tons a year earlier, Melbourne-based Zinifex said today in a statement. Lead output fell 14 percent to 12,974 tons, it said.

- Zinc warehouse stock at LME, net change was –800 MT to 129625 MT

- The zinc market may be in surplus ``for the next few years with supplies from mines estimated to gain 7.5 percent a year for the next two years, Citigroup Inc. said in an April 7 report.



MCX Zinc April - Technical Outlook:

The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 87.4 If market breaches below 87.4 may see prices to take further correction towards 86.0 and 84.4, However if it holds back above 90.3 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 91.9 and 93.3

Recommendations -MCX Zinc April: Sell at 90.20-90.80 Target 86 and 84.80 Stop loss at 91.90



Aluminium



- Aluminium remains strong despite other metals dropped. MCX Aluminium traded towards the high of 123.20

- Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd., the country's largest producer of the metal, said its first-quarter sales price for the metal fell 6.5 percent from a year earlier.

- Alum warehouse stock at LME, net change was –25 MT to 1026950 MT

MCX Aluminium April -Technical outlook:

The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 123.3 levels. If market breaches 123.3 may see prices to take further upside towards 124.6 and 126.0, however if it holds back below 120.6 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 119.2 and 117.9



Recommendations -MCX Aluminium April: Buy at 119-118 Target 123 and 125 Stop loss at 115



Lead



- MCX Lead April dipped towards the low of 110.30 following other metals and energy at LME and Comex. While Lme inventory data helped the bearish movement.

- Lead warehouse stock at LME, net change was 725 MT to 53650 MT

MCX Lead April -Technical outlook:

The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.



Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 110.2 If market breaches below 110.2 may see prices to take further correction towards 108.9 and 107.5, However if it holds back above 113.0 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 114.4 and 115.7



Recommendations -MCX Lead April: Buy at 119-118 Target 123 and 125 Stop loss at 115


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