Monday, February 25, 2008

Energy intraday

· Oil hovered near 99 usd per barrel, weighed slightly as falling equity markets reignited worries over lower demand but geopolitical tensions in the Middle East lent some support.

· Prices have been volatile so far today, amid a mixed fundamental supply/demand backdrop. While swelling US inventory reported yesterday saw prices lower this morning, tension between Turkey and Iraq -- which could end up harming supply -- lifted crude's value later in the session.

· Meanwhile, the threat of lower demand as equity markets tumbled was still prevalent. Oil and another commodities have tracked equity markets in recent months, with some players worried further falls on the stock markets could mean lower demand ahead. US Stocks fell today as investors with little news to trade on after Thursday's pullback kept selling ahead of economic figures due next week.

· On the political side, Turkish troops have entered northern Iraq to hunt Kurdish separatist rebels after fighter jets struck at their bases, the Turkish army said Friday.

· Some 10,000 troops penetrated 10 km (six miles) into the crude-rich autonomous Kurdish northern Iraq, the NTV news channel said.

· In the meantime, Iraqi exports through the north have been suspended. Citigroup analyst said the Turkish incursion was merely giving the market a psychological lift, adding that US supply, especially for gasoline, was not tight.

· Prices had started the day lower because yesterday's US Energy Information Administration said crude stocks rose for the sixth consecutive week, this time by 4.2 mln barrels in the week to Feb 15, shocking traders who had expected crude inventories to rise just 2.6 mln barrels. Gasoline stocks, meanwhile, rose to their highest level since February 1994.

· Earlier this week, however, oil hit a record 101.32 usd per barrel as investment into commodities surged. Such investment is not likely to leave the market just yet, some analysts said.

· Strength in prices across commodities indicates that the rally is likely fuelled by fresh inflow of capital as investors see commodities as an alternative asset class," said Bank of America analysts. Elsewhere, gold and platinum were close to record highs.

· Looking ahead, consumer pressure on OPEC to release more oil at its March 5 meet is likely to grow, but the cartel has repeatedly insisted it is not to blame for the high price. In the group's last two meetings since December 2007 OPEC ministers have chosen to keep production steady at 29.67 mln bpd.

MCX Crude Oil March

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations:

MCX Crude Oil March: Buy at 3845-50 for the target of 3990 and 4025 with stop loss at 3810

MCX Natural gas March

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations:

Natural gas March: Sell at 376-79 for the target of 365 and 358 with stop loss at 387

MCXARUN
9994500540

Base metals intraday

· MCX Copper March rose to two year high of Rs. 337.35 and retrace back towards Rs. 330 per kg following international trend on inventory data and production disruption news all over world.

· MCX Zinc Feb. also followed red metals and traded towards Rs. 101 per kg. MCX Lead traded at Rs. 131.55, MCX Nickel Feb also Rs. 1137

· Copper fell from the highest in almost two years in London as higher prices attracted more metal into stockpiles and deterred buying in China, the world's largest user of the metal. Tin rose to its highest since at least 1989.

· Stockpiles monitored by exchanges in London, Shanghai and New York expanded to 199,469 metric tons, the highest since Feb. 8. More shipments may be going to China; Chinese buyers probably ordered metal arriving now in the fourth quarter, when prices were lower.

· Most stockpile increases were reported by the Shanghai Futures Exchange, where inventories jumped by 14,000 tons, or 45 percent, to 45,188 tons from a week ago. On the LME, 6,000 tons of copper arrived in Hull, in the U.K., which is typically not a location favored by European consumers.

· Copper has risen 25 percent this year as usage in China expanded. Imports of refined copper and alloys into the nation gained 7.1 percent in January from a year earlier to 158,073 tons, the customs office said today.

· Imports of copper into China may decline because LME prices are now more expensive than domestic prices,that doesn't imply less consumption overall.

· Aluminum output in China, the world's largest producer, last month fell 7.6 percent to 1.06 million tons, from the preceding month, the lowest since July, the London-based International Aluminium Institute said today on its Web site. The nation produced 958,000 tons in January 2007.

· China's worst snowstorms in 50 years last month delayed transport, caused power outages and forced production cuts at aluminum producers including Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd., the nation's largest.

MCX Copper April

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations:

MCX Copper April: Buy at 323-25 for the target of 328 and 337 with stop loss at 318

MCX Zinc March

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations:

MCX Zinc Feb:

Buy at 97.00-97.50 for the target of 102 and 103.50 with stop loss at 95.40

MCX Nickel March

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations:

MCX Nickel March: Buy at 1130-34 for the target of 1158 and 1170 with stop loss at 1120

MCX Lead Feb

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations:

MCX Lead March:

Sell at 134.35 for the target of 129 and 126 with stop loss at 137.60

MCXARUN
9994500540

Bullion intraday

· Gold, little changed in London, headed for its biggest weekly advance in 19 months as lower U.S. interest rates may revive investor demand for the metal as an alternative to the dollar. Platinum dropped from a record.

· MCC Gold April traded bullish on Friday and Saturday closed near Rs. 12104 following bullish trend during week. MCX Silver March also followed the movement and traded near Rs. 22130.

· International spot gold closed at 944.50 and silver closed at $17.99

· The dollar declined to a three-week low against the euro on speculation U.S. economic growth will slow, forcing the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. Gold has climbed 45 percent since the Fed in August announced a policy shift to contain the subprime mortgage collapse.

· Gold imports in India, the world's biggest gold consumer, have slumped every month since October, according to figures from the Bombay Bullion Association. Gold has risen every month except November for the past seven months.

· The UBS Bloomberg Constant Maturity Commodity Index of 26 raw materials is up 14 percent this year, led by gains in lead, sugar, soybean oil and cocoa.

Indian Bullion Spot Market

Gold and Silver eased in spot markets on end of week profit booking following the huge gains recorded during the week. The underlying sentiment across the precious metals, however, continues to be bullish.

· In Mumbai markets, gold (995) and gold (.999) rose by Rs 30 to finish at Rs 12,230 per 10 gm and Rs 12,285/10gm respectively. Arrivals in gold were at 100 kilos and traded volumes were 100 kilos. Silver (.999) closed at Rs 22,540/kg, down by Rs 15. Arrivals in silver were at 150 kilos.

· Ahmedabad gold (995) rose by Rs 60 to end at Rs 12,240/10gm and gold (.999) by Rs 55 to end at Rs 12,290/10gm respectively whereas Silver (.999) closed at Rs 22,700/kg, plunging by Rs 1,050.

· In Delhi bullion markets, gold (995) increased by Rs 50 to close at Rs 12,200/10gm and gold(.999) by Rs 30 to close at Rs 12,250/10gm respectively whereas Silver (.999) declined by Rs 150 to end at Rs 22,150/kg.

MCX Gold Apr

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations:

MCX Gold April: Buy at 12010-30 for target of 12210 and 12330 with stop loss at 11920

MCX Silver Mar

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations:

MCX Silver March: Buy at 22870 to 22900 for the target of 23300 and 23500 with stop loss at 22680

MCXARUN
9994500540

Technicals – MCX (Intra day calls)

CRUDE OIL (March) BULLISH ABOVE 3915 BEARISH BELOW 3935

GOLD (April) BULLISH ABOVE 12124 BEARISH BELOW 12085

SILVER (March) BULLISH ABOVE 23185 BEARISH BELOW 23087

COPPER (February) BULLISH ABOVE 334.90 BEARISH BELOW 333.80

LEAD (February) BULLISH ABOVE 131.75 BEARISH BELOW 131.20

NICKEL (February) BULLISH ABOVE 1139 BEARISH BELOW 1132

ZINC (February) BULLISH ABOVE 98.70 BEARISH BELOW 98.20

MCXARUN
9994500540

Long view

COPPER
LIKELY TO TEST 344-347 UPTO 350 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 338, AND CLOSE ABOVE 351 TEST 360-65 ATLEAST, ONLY CLOSE BELOW 302.5 DOWN TREND AGAIN TEST 297-293 ATLEAST(FEB)


LEAD
LIKELY TO TEST 137-139-141 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 134.5, WHILE CLOSE BELOW 128.5 TEST 124 ATLEAST
(MAR)

MCXARUN
9994500540

Safe trade

GOLD

OUR WORDS.. sustain abv 11685 test 11760-75 atleast AND abv 11875 12000 atleast AND abv 12000 12140-150 atleast ALL ACHIEVED book profit on buy abv 11600/11875/12000, for the day buy only abv 12150 & more abv 12175 S/L 12130 and T/p 12250 atleast upto 12300 OR buy ard 11950-60 S/L 11940 and T/p 12025-12060 (any time close above 12175 bullish while close below 11575-475/ 11300/10950-900/ 10500/10050/9850/ 9575 bearish for medium term)

SILVER


OUR WORDS abv 22450 test 22700-750 atleast AND abv 22725 test 23000 also ACHIEVED, book profit on buy abv 22725/23025, for the day buy only abv 23200 S/L 23110 and T/p 23275-300/ 400 upto 23500 OR buy ard 22925-40 S/L 22900 and T/p 23000-40/23100 (any time close below 22650/21940/21700-475/20950/ 20300/19725/19375/ 19000/ 18625/18250/18100/17750/17050/ 16450 bearish rally while close above 23200 bullish for medium term)

CRUDE

our S/L hit, for the day buy only abv 3940 S/L 3920 and T/p 3965-3985/sustain abv 3985-4000 test 4075 atleast upto 4100 OR buy ard 3865-70 S/L 3860 and T/p 3900-3920 (now crude need to close above 3985 for bullish rally while close below 3840/3790/3635-3590/3475/3395/3350/3090/2810 bearish for medium term)

COPPER

OUR WORDS sustain abv 293 test 298-300 atleast AND sustain abv 312.5 test 316-317 atleast.. ACHIEVED we book profit on buy abv 310.5/316/ 326/328/332, for the day buy only abv 335.5 S/L 334 and T/p 337-338/sustain abv 338 test 343-45 atleast upto 347 OR buy ard 328.8-329.2 S/L 328 and T/p 331.5-333.5 (upside strong rally only on close above 337.5/348 while close below 325.5/315.5/302.5/286.5/278/ 270/265/250/235 bearish for medium term)

MCXARUN
9994500540

GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS

Silver and copper March futures expiry will be the key this week. Copper has zoomed while silver continues to under perform. When 2008 started, there were apprehensions on base metals demand which resulted in a build up of short positions. However in the beginning of February when it became clear that base metals demand may not fall as much, the short positions in base metals were converted into long positions. The continuous decline in LME stocks added to investment demand in base metals. Base metals are bullish in the medium term. LME copper can rise to $9000 while LME nickel can rise over $40,000 over the coming months. However I will be cautious going long in base metals at the current levels as there is too hype much over base metals demand.

Another thing to watch out this week is whether the Euro/USD is able to break 1.50. The Eurozone economy has shown mild resilience to the US slowdown which could result in the European central bank delaying its interest rate reduction beyond June. Euro/USD has to break 1.50 in the next fortnight and failure to do so result in 1.4325 and 1.4036. A weaker US dollar always supports gold.

The technical picture in gold, silver and copper is still bullish. Metals have fallen as and when they neared key technical supports. Geopolitical risk has resurfaced once again with the Turkish invasion on northern Iraq and Iran unable to answer united nations questions on the nuclear issue. Turkey, Iran and Iraq are still at a nascent stage but have the potential to blow up further.

GOLD -- APRIL FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT:$944.0

Gold has to break $959-$965 zone for $978 and $989. Key support at $942, $931.60

NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $97.52

Only a break of $102 will result in $107 and $112. Key weekly support at $95.31 and $97.52.

MCXARUN
9994500540