Base metals

Copper:

Copper trade on ACCESS is showing higher prices in recent activity extending the prior sessions gains. Trend indicators have turned from a neutral price pattern to a bullish bias. However the overall strength of the trend, as indicated by the ADX, is weak and should be watched as a result. Momentum readings are also bullish. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days and should be watched.

TREND INDICATORS:

Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. However, even though prices are trading below the moving average, the moving average slope is up from the previous session. Should prices continue lower the moving average will eventually follow and then the down trend will be more clearly established. However, this strength in the moving average will need to be watched. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a weak bearish bias.

Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. However, despite prices trading above the moving average line, the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session. If prices trade below the moving average then the trend will be clearly established as up. However, this strength in the price will need to be watched. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a weak bearish bias.

ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is falling, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is down. However, the weak ADX indicates that the current trend is deteriorating and may possibly reverse. Look for a choppiness ahead.

MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days.

RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 52.46). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 52.46 the market is somewhat overbought. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of weakness from this indicator before getting too bearish here.

VOLATILITY INDICATORS:

Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Volatility also appears to be decreasing, as evidenced by a smaller distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions.

RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:

3.3880 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
3.3785 - Highest High in last 10-Days
3.3785 - Highest High in last 50-Days
3.3648 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
3.3027 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
3.2695 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
3.2443 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
3.2140 - High
3.1990 - Last Price
3.1845 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
3.1450 - Low
3.1253 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
3.1060 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
3.1006 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
3.0789 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
2.9835 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
2.8530 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days

MCXARUN
9994500540

energy

Crude Oil:

Front month crude oil is weaker in ACCESS trade this morning extending the prior sessions weaker close. Trend indicators are indicating a bearish market and the overall strength of the trend is strong, as indicated by the ADX. Momentum readings are also in bearish territory.

TREND INDICATORS:

Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session indicating further weakness. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bearish bias.

Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. Furthermore the markets trend has changed direction since the previous session. The slope of the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session indicating weakness. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bearish bias.

Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session indicating further weakness. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bearish bias.

ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is rising, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is down. As the ADX is rising this indicates that the current trend is strong and should remain intact. Look for the current trend to continue.

MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bearish territory.

RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 40.71). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 40.71 the market is somewhat oversold. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of strength from this indicator before getting too bullish here.

VOLATILITY INDICATORS:

Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating oversold prices. Despite this oversold condition the market may become more oversold before turning higher. As a result, the market will look for additional strength in prices before turning bullish on this indicator.

RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:

100.09 - Highest High in last 50-Days
100.03 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
98.40 - Highest High in last 10-Days
97.28 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
93.85 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
93.34 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
93.07 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
91.77 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
90.36 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
90.13 - High
90.11 - Last Price
89.10 - Low
89.10 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
89.01 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
88.41 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
85.82 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
78.47 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average

Natural Gas:

Natural Gas contracts are higher this morning reversing the weaker tone seen during the prior session. Trend indicators are indicating a bullish market. However the overall strength of the trend, as indicated by the ADX, is weak and should be watched as a result. Momentum readings are also bullish. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days and should be watched.

TREND INDICATORS:

Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices cross above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is falling, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. However, the weak ADX indicates that the current trend is deteriorating and may possibly reverse. Look for choppiness ahead.

MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days.

RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 62.90). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 62.90 the market is somewhat overbought. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of weakness from this indicator before getting too bearish here.

VOLATILITY INDICATORS:

Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Volatility also appears to be decreasing, as evidenced by a smaller distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions. Despite this overbought condition the market may become more overbought before turning lower. As a result, the market will look for additional weakening in prices before turning bearish on this indicator.

RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:

8.616 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
8.480 - Highest High in last 10-Days
8.480 - Highest High in last 50-Days
8.194 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
8.173 - High
8.173 - Last Price
8.135 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
8.129 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
8.110 - Low
7.701 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
7.640 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
7.588 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
7.348 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
7.231 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
7.171 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
6.926 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
6.914 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days

MCXARUN
9994500540

Bullion

COMEX Gold:

Gold trading is weaker in ACCESS trade this morning extending the prior sessions weaker close. Trend indicators are indicating a bullish market. However the overall strength of the trend, as indicated by the ADX, is weak and should be watched as a result. MACD also has issued a bearish signal, suggesting a reversal in the current trend.

TREND INDICATORS:

Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. However, despite prices trading below the moving average line, the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session. If prices trade above the moving average then the trend will be clearly established as up. However, this weakness in the price will need to be watched. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a weak bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is falling, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. However, the weak ADX indicates that the current trend is deteriorating and may possibly reverse. Look for choppiness ahead.

MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: MACD has issued a bearish signal, suggesting a reversal of the current upward trend, based on the 50 day simple moving average. However, MACD tends to be better at picking bottoms than tops and the signal may be viewed with caution.

RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 59.82). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 59.82 the market is somewhat overbought. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of weakness from this indicator before getting too bearish here.

VOLATILITY INDICATORS:

Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Volatility also appears to be decreasing, as evidenced by a smaller distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions. The market is overbought and appears to be weakening. Look for a potential top in this area.

RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:

921.50 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
916.10 - Highest High in last 10-Days
916.10 - Highest High in last 50-Days
891.53 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
885.93 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
881.90 - High
879.33 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
875.50 - Last Price
870.60 - Low
857.80 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
849.81 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
831.59 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
828.81 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
801.62 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
787.89 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
773.40 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
729.89 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average

COMEX Silver:

Silver futures are weaker this morning reversing the firmer tone seen during the prior session. Trend indicators are indicating a bullish market. However the overall strength of the trend, as indicated by the ADX, is weak and should be watched as a result. Momentum readings are also bullish. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days and should be watched.

TREND INDICATORS:

Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices cross below this moving average. However, despite prices trading below the moving average line, the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session. If prices trade above the moving average then the trend will be clearly established as up. However, this weakness in the price will need to be watched. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a weak bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is falling, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. However, the weak ADX indicates that the current trend is deteriorating and may possibly reverse. Look for choppiness ahead.

MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days.

RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 59.94). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 59.94 the market is somewhat overbought. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of weakness from this indicator before getting too bearish here.

VOLATILITY INDICATORS:

Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Volatility also appears to be decreasing, as evidenced by a smaller distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions. Despite this overbought condition the market may become more overbought before turning lower. As a result, the market will look for additional weakening in prices before turning bearish on this indicator.

RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:

16.759 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
16.715 - Highest High in last 10-Days
16.715 - Highest High in last 50-Days
16.112 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
16.009 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
15.965 - High
15.927 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
15.875 - Last Price
15.715 - Low
15.200 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
15.196 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
14.936 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
14.818 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
14.227 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
14.171 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
13.740 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
13.669 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average

MCXARUN
9994500540

WTI Crude Oil (CLG8) under 90.00 areas

We see –finally- Crude Oil taking on board the implications of a sharp US slowdown and possibly a recession. The actual debate between economists is to agree or not if the US economy is already in recession.

WTI Crude Oil (CLG8) under 90.00 areas, the focus has to be towards $87.00/bbl.

Nymex Natural Gas (NGG8) finally bowing to the pressure and trading below $7.90. We still believe the 7.70/8.00 area is a good entry point.

Note: the support/resistance levels used in the matrix’s of this document are levels derived from yesterday high, low and close. Reference in the text to other support/resistance levels will occur.
CRUDE
LCOH8
Resist.
89.23
89.23
89.23
87.87
89.23
89.23
89.23
Support
50dMA
91.8
10dMA
90.84

Thanks to saxo bank

MCXARUN
9994500540

Gold February (gcg8) reached our first target @ USD 687o/z

We believe the contagion effect from the Sub Prime woes to the Equity will continue to spill-off to the Energy sector and Metals. Looking at the SP500, we can see some chart damaged has been done and we expect further declines in the weeks/months ahead. In this environment, Precious Metals with an Industrial purposes are the most exposed (Copper, Platinum, Silver). But we believe Gold correction will be short lived as Gold prices tend to perform strongly in a low or negative real interest rate environment.

Gold February (gcg8) reached our first target @ USD 687o/z. Next support is at USD862, if broken down USD835. areas.

Note: the support/resistance levels used in the matrix’s of this document are levels derived from yesterday high, low and close. Reference in the text to other support/resistance levels will occur.
GOLD SILVER
ZGG8 ZIG8
Resist. Resist.
891.8 16.214
883 16.043
877.8 15.986
883.8 16.058
869 15.815
865.4 15.701
856.6 15.53
Support Support
47dMA 34dMA
829.4 14.898
9dMA 9dMA
887.6 15.914

Thanks to saxo bank

MCXARUN
9994500540