energy

Crude Oil:

Front month crude oil is weaker in ACCESS trade this morning extending the prior sessions weaker close. Trend indicators are indicating a bearish market. However the overall strength of the trend, as indicated by the ADX, is weak and should be watched as a result. Momentum readings are also in bearish territory.

TREND INDICATORS:

Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session indicating further weakness. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bearish bias.

Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices cross below this moving average. However, despite prices trading below the moving average line, the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session. If prices trade above the moving average then the trend will be clearly established as up. However, this weakness in the price will need to be watched. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a weak bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. Furthermore the markets trend has changed direction since the previous session. The slope of the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session indicating weakness. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bearish bias.

ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is falling, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is down. However, the weak ADX indicates that the current trend is deteriorating and may possibly reverse. Look for a choppiness ahead.

MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bearish territory.

RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 47.61). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 47.61 the market is somewhat oversold. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of strength from this indicator before getting too bullish here.

VOLATILITY INDICATORS:

Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating oversold prices. Despite this oversold condition the market may become more oversold before turning higher. As a result, the market will look for additional strength in prices before turning bullish on this indicator.

RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:

100.09 - Highest High in last 50-Days
100.09 - Highest High in last 10-Days
99.95 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
97.22 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
96.28 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
94.65 - High
94.24 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
93.74 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
93.62 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
93.35 - Last Price
93.21 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
93.21 - Low
91.76 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
89.04 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
87.38 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
85.82 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
77.79 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average

Natural Gas:

Natural Gas contracts are higher this morning extending the prior sessions gains. Trend indicators have moved from a bullish to a neutral price pattern.

TREND INDICATORS:

Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. However, even though prices are trading above the moving average, the moving average slope is down from the previous session. Should prices continue higher the moving average will eventually follow and then the up trend will be more clearly established. However, this weakness in the moving average will need to be watched. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a weak bullish bias.

ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is rising, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. As the ADX is rising it indicates that the current trend is strong and should remain intact. Look for the current trend to continue.

MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days.

RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 70.90). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 70.90 the market is somewhat overbought. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of weakness from this indicator before getting too bearish here.

VOLATILITY INDICATORS:

Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Volatility also appears to be increasing, as evidenced by a larger distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions. Despite this overbought condition the market may become more overbought before turning lower. As a result, the market will look for additional weakening in prices before turning bearish on this indicator.

RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:

8.712 - Highest High in last 50-Days
8.344 - High
8.344 - Highest High in last 10-Days
8.340 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
8.260 - Last Price
8.245 - Low
8.206 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
7.923 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
7.870 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
7.581 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
7.445 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
7.156 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
7.101 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
7.088 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
7.080 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
6.914 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
6.671 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations

MCXARUN
9994500540

Base metals

Copper:

Copper trade on ACCESS is showing higher prices in recent activity reversing the weaker tone seen during the prior session. Trend indicators are showing the market in a neutral price pattern at present.

TREND INDICATORS:

Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. However, despite prices trading above the moving average line, the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session. If prices trade below the moving average then the trend will be clearly established as up. However, this strength in the price will need to be watched. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a weak bearish bias.

ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is rising, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is down. As the ADX is rising this indicates that the current trend is strong and should remain intact. Look for the current trend to continue.

MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days.

RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 61.31). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 61.31 the market is somewhat overbought. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of weakness from this indicator before getting too bearish here.

VOLATILITY INDICATORS:

Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Volatility also appears to be increasing, as evidenced by a larger distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions. Despite this overbought condition the market may become more overbought before turning lower. As a result, the market will look for additional weakening in prices before turning bearish on this indicator.

RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:

3.4935 - Highest High in last 50-Days
3.3892 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
3.3785 - Highest High in last 10-Days
3.3580 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
3.3270 - High
3.3064 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
3.2830 - Last Price
3.2827 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
3.2640 - Low
3.2284 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
3.1810 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
3.1093 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
3.0948 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
3.0220 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
2.9693 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
2.8530 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
2.8398 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations

MCXARUN
9994500540

Bullion

COMEX Gold:

Gold trading is weaker in ACCESS trade this morning reversing the firmer tone seen during the prior session. Trend indicators are indicating a bullish market and the overall strength of the trend is strong, as indicated by the ADX. Momentum readings are also bullish. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days and should be watched. A bearish key reversal off a 10-Day new high here should confirm this bearish outlook.

TREND INDICATORS:

Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is rising, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. As the ADX is rising it indicates that the current trend is strong and should remain intact. Look for the current trend to continue.

MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days. A bearish key reversal off a 10-Day new high here should confirm this bearish outlook.

RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 75.65). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 75.65 the market is somewhat overbought suggesting a possible market decline. Further, a bearish key reversal off a 10-Day new high here makes a downturn in the market even more likely

VOLATILITY INDICATORS:

Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Volatility also appears to be increasing, as evidenced by a larger distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions. Despite this overbought condition the market may become more overbought before turning lower. As a result, the market will look for additional weakening in prices before turning bearish on this indicator.

RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:

904.81 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
899.90 - Highest High in last 50-Days
899.90 - Highest High in last 10-Days
899.90 - High
893.00 - Last Price
890.30 - Low
889.43 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
872.32 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
868.61 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
834.13 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
828.30 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
821.23 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
807.34 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
777.04 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
774.85 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
773.40 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
724.48 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average

COMEX Silver:

Silver futures are weaker this morning reversing the firmer tone seen during the prior session. Trend indicators are indicating a bullish market and the overall strength of the trend is strong, as indicated by the ADX. Momentum readings are also in bullish territory. However, the market just signaled a bearish key reversal off a 10-Day new high, indicating potential weakness to come.

TREND INDICATORS:

Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is rising, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. As the ADX is rising it indicates that the current trend is strong and should remain intact. Look for the current trend to continue.

MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory. However, the market just signaled a bearish key reversal off a 10-Day new high, indicating potential weakness to come.

RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 73.27). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 73.27 the market is somewhat overbought suggesting a possible market decline. Further, a bearish key reversal off a 10-Day new high here makes a downturn in the market even more likely

VOLATILITY INDICATORS:

Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Volatility also appears to be increasing, as evidenced by a larger distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions. Despite this overbought condition the market may become more overbought before turning lower. As a result, the market will look for additional weakening in prices before turning bearish on this indicator.

RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:

16.415 - High
16.415 - Highest High in last 50-Days
16.415 - Highest High in last 10-Days
16.369 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
16.210 - Last Price
16.155 - Low
16.108 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
15.665 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
15.550 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
14.916 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
14.811 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
14.730 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
14.257 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
14.016 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
13.740 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
13.604 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
13.553 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations

MCXARUN
9994500540

Energy

MCX Crude Oil Jan closed at Rs. 3645 per barrel with a loss of Rs. 55 per barrel while NYMEX Crude oil gave closing of $92.70 per barrel for the week. Nymex crude fell on Friday to settle at the lowest price since Dec.20.

· Nymex crude closed lower as market players focused on concerns that slowdown in US economy, world's biggest oil consumer, will affect oil demand, shrugging off supply concerns heightened following reports of violence in Nigeria.

· As per Dow Jones newswires, MEND said on Friday it detonated a remote explosive device that caused a fire on a tanker in Port Harcourt city of Nigeria and said it got help carrying out the attack from people in the energy industry and Nigeria's intelligence services. Nigeria is Africa's biggest oil producer and militant activity here has already affected 20% of oil exports.

· A concern about the health of US economy has increased after a slate of weak economic data and forecasts of slowdown. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Thursday said the economy would most likely avoid a recession this year but still undergo a period of slow growth and that they were ready to take substantive additional action as needed to support growth.

· In addition to it, Federal Reserve Governor Frederic Mishkin said Friday that Fed needs to act in a timely, decisive and flexible manner in response to financial shocks, as per Dow Jones newswires report. US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said Friday that economy should be able to continue to expand but acknowledged that the economy is slowing down fairly rapidly and that the risks are to the downside.

MCX Crude Oil Jan (Daily Chart)



Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive. The 9-day

Recommendations: MCX Crude Oil Jan: Sell at 3675-3695 for target of 3615 and 3580 with stop loss below 3735



MCX Natural gas Jan (Daily Chart)



Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies have turned bullish; will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are increasing from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 18-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations: MCX Natural Gas Jan: Buy at 315-312 for the target of 329 and 336 with stop loss at 309

MCXARUN
9994500540

Base metals

MCX Copper traded positive and closed at Rs. 287.35 per kg on weekend with a loss from previous closing, while Zinc, Nickel Lead, Aluminium closed in green. On London Metal Exchange, copper traded firm whereas other metals traded choppy amidst highly volatile trading conditions.

· Copper Output at factories, utilities and mines fell 1.5 percent in November inFrance and declined from a year earlier inSpain for the first time since October 2005, reports today from the governments showed. Copper slid from a two-month high yesterday after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said theU.S. is probably slipping into recession.

· Demand for refined copper in theU.S. will slide 1.5 percent this year while consumption increases 6 percent inChina, the Chilean Copper Commission said yesterday in a report.

· UBS AG cut its copper price forecast for this year, citing declining consumption of industrial metals. The price will average $3 a pound in 2008, UBS analysts led by London-based John Reade said in a report today. That's almost 8 percent lower than the previous forecast of $3.25. Copper averaged $3.23 a pound in 2007.

· Sentiments across the metal complex were fragile following the hawkish statements made by the Federal Reserve chairman Ben.S.Bernanke on the state of affairs of the economy.

· The metals benefited this week from index re-balancing in international markets and is now eyeing a slew of economic data to be released next week from the US for further direction. The underlying sentiments in the metal complex continues to be dented amidst a background of a deteriorating US economy.



· MCX Copper traded positive and closed at Rs. 287.35 per kg on weekend with a loss from previous closing, while Zinc, Nickel Lead, Aluminium closed in green. On London Metal Exchange, copper traded firm whereas other metals traded choppy amidst highly volatile trading conditions.

· Copper Output at factories, utilities and mines fell 1.5 percent in November inFrance and declined from a year earlier inSpain for the first time since October 2005, reports today from the governments showed. Copper slid from a two-month high yesterday after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said theU.S. is probably slipping into recession.

· Demand for refined copper in theU.S. will slide 1.5 percent this year while consumption increases 6 percent inChina, the Chilean Copper Commission said yesterday in a report.

· UBS AG cut its copper price forecast for this year, citing declining consumption of industrial metals. The price will average $3 a pound in 2008, UBS analysts led by London-based John Reade said in a report today. That's almost 8 percent lower than the previous forecast of $3.25. Copper averaged $3.23 a pound in 2007.

· Sentiments across the metal complex were fragile following the hawkish statements made by the Federal Reserve chairman Ben.S.Bernanke on the state of affairs of the economy.

· The metals benefited this week from index re-balancing in international markets and is now eyeing a slew of economic data to be released next week from the US for further direction. The underlying sentiments in the metal complex continues to be dented amidst a background of a deteriorating US economy.

LME Inventory: Following are the updates on LME warehouse stock movements for 11, January 2008

LONDON METAL EXCHANGE STOCKS

METAL


LAST


NET


PREV

COPPER


199275


-375


199650

ALUM.


939325


2850


936475

ZINC


94175


-25


94200

NICKEL


47544


-342


47886

LEAD


49250


-75


49325

TIN


11935


-60


11995

A.ALLOY


45400


-200


45600

NA.ALUM


107720


0


107720


MCX Copper Feb (Daily Chart)



Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are still bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations:

MCX Copper Feb: Buy at 283-284 for the target of 290 and 294 with stop loss at 276.50

MCX Zinc Jan (Daily Chart)



Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are still bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Zinc Jan: Sell at 95.00-95.50 for the target of 91.50 and 90.10 with stop loss at 96.75

MCX Nickel Jan (Daily Chart)



Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are still bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Nickel Jan: Sell at 1140-45 for the target of 1105 and 1090 with stop loss at 1165



MCX Lead Dec (Daily Chart)



Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are still bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Lead Jan: Buy at 101 for the target of 103.15 and 104.50 with stop loss at 100.05

MCXARUN
9994500540

Bullion

Gold futures breached the psychologically important USD900-per-ounce benchmark Friday as participants sought a hedge against inflation and safe haven from falling equities.

· MCX Gold Feb registered a all-time contract high of Rs. 11329 per 10 gram similarly MCX Silver March also pushed up and registered a contract high of Rs. 21015 per kg.

· The metal passed the anticipated level in a reaction to the inflationary implications of a bullish crop report that sparked a grains rally and formed yet another indicator that the long-running commodities boom is racheting up consumer prices.

· After setting a new contract high of USD900.10 an ounce, most-active February gold rose USD4.10 to USD897.70 on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Nearby January gold set a fresh all-time record of USD899.70. Shortly after pit trade closed, the February contract at the Chicago Board of Trade was up USD4.30 to USD897.50.

· The markets will keenly eye theUS economic data to be released next week which includes the Producer Price Index and retail sales on Tuesday, Consumer Price Index and industrial production on Wednesday, housing starts and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index Thursday andUniversity ofMichigan consumer-sentiment index on Friday

Indian Bullion Spot Market

Spot precious metals finished upbeat tracing the overnight rally in international markets. Gold broke new records on Thursday in international markets on fears of a recession in theUS economy and weak dollar.

Concerns following the dovish statements made by the Federal Reserve chairman, Ben.S.Bernanke on the state of affairs of theUS economy prompted investors to safe haven buying.



MCX Gold Feb (Daily Chart)



Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are still bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations:

MCX Gold Feb: Sell at 11310-330 for the target of 11260 and 11200 with stop loss at 11355



MCX Silver Mar (Daily Chart)



Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are still bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations:

MCX Silver March: Sell at 20950-21000 for the target of 20800 and 20650 with stop loss at 21115

MCXARUN
9994500540

OUT LOOK

February gold closed higher on Friday as it extended this winter's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to
higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices
are possible near-term. If February extends this winter's rally, Monthly resistance crossing at 915.00 is the next upside target.
Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 869.00 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance
is today's high crossing at 900.10 then monthly resistance crossing at 915.00. First support is the 10-day moving average
crossing at 869.00 then November's high crossing at 855.00.

March silver closed higher on Friday and as it extended the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a
steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remains neutral to bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at
16.445 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 15.562 would confirm that a short-term
top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 16.415 then November's high crossing at 16.445. First support
is the 10-day moving average crossing at 15.562 then the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.967.

March copper closed higher on Friday and above the 50% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at
330.22 as it ended a two-day correction. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday.
Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-
term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at
340.79 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 309.97 would confirm that a short-term
low has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 337.85 then the 62% retracement level crossing at 340.79.
First support is Thursday's low crossing at 321.50 then the 38% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at
319.65.

February crude oil closed lower on Friday as it extends Thursday's breakout below the 20-day moving average crossing at
94.48 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on
Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If February extends this
week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 89.15 is the next downside target. Closes above Wednesday's high crossing at 97.97
would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. First resistance is today's high crossing at 94.65. Second resistance
is the 10-day moving average crossing at 96.22. First support is today's low crossing at 92.31. Second support is the reaction
low crossing at 89.15.


February Henry natural gas closed lower on Friday and below the 62% retracement level of the November-December decline
crossing at 8.260 as it consolidated some of the rally off December's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady
opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral hinting that a short-term top might be in or
is near. If February extends this month's rally, the 75% retracement level of the November-December decline crossing at 8.540
is the next upside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 8.410 then the 75% retracement level crossing at 8.540.
First support is the 50% retracement level crossing at 8.010. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 7.862.

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GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS

Some sections of the market are betting on a fifty basis point cut by the Fed on 30th January which will result in further gains in gold and silver this week. The rise in gold has resulted in short term money flowing into gold and commodities in general. This week we have the US producer price Index (PPI) and consumer price index (CPI). Even if PPI and CPI come in higher than expected, the fed will choose growth instead of inflation in the short term. The US dollar is headed lower in the short term. Investors will be using declines in gold as an opportunity to go long. If global growth slows greater than expected base metals will fall as surplus widens. However crude oil may not fall as much.

I wonder what will happen to those companies who bought other companies under leveraged buyouts. If the US economy moves into recession, not just Japan even Europe will be affected sooner than later. Some of the buyouts may not be profitable and may have to be sold at lower prices. Although it’s too early to comment on the same, if it happens gold will zoom.

Various central banks by cutting interest rates are adding to liquidity. Even in commodities, base metals investors will switch to precious metals in uncertainty of slower global growth. Crude oil and energies will continue to draw greater investment interest on declines as slower global growth does not mean reduction in energy demand. It will be a volatile week with an overall bullish trend in gold and silver.

GOLD -- FEBRURAY FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT:$888.0

Only a break of $907 will result in $918 and $938 as the next target. On the lower side as long as $888 and $872 holds, downside will be limited.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $90.40

$87-$88 is the support zone for the week while only a break of $95.20 will result in $99 and further once again.

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