energy

Crude Oil:

Front month crude oil is weaker in ACCESS trade this morning extending the prior sessions weaker close. Trend indicators are indicating a bearish market. However the overall strength of the trend, as indicated by the ADX, is weak and should be watched as a result. Momentum readings are also in bearish territory.

TREND INDICATORS:

Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session indicating further weakness. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bearish bias.

Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices cross below this moving average. However, despite prices trading below the moving average line, the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session. If prices trade above the moving average then the trend will be clearly established as up. However, this weakness in the price will need to be watched. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a weak bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. Furthermore the markets trend has changed direction since the previous session. The slope of the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session indicating weakness. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bearish bias.

ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is falling, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is down. However, the weak ADX indicates that the current trend is deteriorating and may possibly reverse. Look for a choppiness ahead.

MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bearish territory.

RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 47.61). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 47.61 the market is somewhat oversold. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of strength from this indicator before getting too bullish here.

VOLATILITY INDICATORS:

Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating oversold prices. Despite this oversold condition the market may become more oversold before turning higher. As a result, the market will look for additional strength in prices before turning bullish on this indicator.

RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:

100.09 - Highest High in last 50-Days
100.09 - Highest High in last 10-Days
99.95 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
97.22 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
96.28 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
94.65 - High
94.24 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
93.74 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
93.62 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
93.35 - Last Price
93.21 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
93.21 - Low
91.76 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
89.04 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
87.38 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
85.82 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
77.79 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average

Natural Gas:

Natural Gas contracts are higher this morning extending the prior sessions gains. Trend indicators have moved from a bullish to a neutral price pattern.

TREND INDICATORS:

Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. However, even though prices are trading above the moving average, the moving average slope is down from the previous session. Should prices continue higher the moving average will eventually follow and then the up trend will be more clearly established. However, this weakness in the moving average will need to be watched. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a weak bullish bias.

ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is rising, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. As the ADX is rising it indicates that the current trend is strong and should remain intact. Look for the current trend to continue.

MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days.

RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 70.90). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 70.90 the market is somewhat overbought. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of weakness from this indicator before getting too bearish here.

VOLATILITY INDICATORS:

Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Volatility also appears to be increasing, as evidenced by a larger distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions. Despite this overbought condition the market may become more overbought before turning lower. As a result, the market will look for additional weakening in prices before turning bearish on this indicator.

RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:

8.712 - Highest High in last 50-Days
8.344 - High
8.344 - Highest High in last 10-Days
8.340 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
8.260 - Last Price
8.245 - Low
8.206 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
7.923 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
7.870 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
7.581 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
7.445 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
7.156 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
7.101 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
7.088 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
7.080 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
6.914 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
6.671 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations

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