Oil prices dropped Thursday after China said it will raise fuel prices, a move that could dampen the booming Asian nation's oil consumption. Retail gas prices slid overnight. Growing Chinese demand for oil has underpinned the multiyear rally in oil prices. But higher prices could crimp that demand. Concerns about spiking Chinese demand for diesel due to cleanup operations in the aftermath of last month's earthquake contributed to oil's run-up in recent weeks
Saudi Arabia plans to increase crude production by 200,000 barrels a day, according to a statement from the kingdom's embassy in London. The statement didn't specify the timing of the increase. Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi pledged on May 16 to boost output by 300,000 barrels a day in June. Saudi Arabia has since indicated it plans to announce a further addition at this week's meeting in Jeddah, according to an official at the OPEC
Also in news Venezuela will not be attending the scheduled meeting on this week as Saudi Arabia will take measures of increasing output as they take in every consideration in order to lower prices that have been affecting many nations while Venezuela believes there is no need for more output.
The Chinese government announced that they are increasing their subsidized gasoline prices (by roughly 16%) and diesel prices (by roughly 40%). The move is expected to reduce demand in China and help ease the world's tight supplies of crude oil, and the Nigerian militants attacked and closed a 200,000 barrel per day offshore oil facility owned by Royal Dutch Shell.
Goldman Sachs raised its 2008 price forecast for crude to $117 a barrel, from the previous view of $108 a barrel. The bank now expects 2009 oil prices to reach $140 a barrel next year, up from $110 a barrel.
Natural gas in New York declined after a U.S. government report showed that supplies gained within analysts expectations and crude oil fell
The U.S. Department of Energy said that underground supplies of natural gas were up 57 billion cubic feet last week to 1.943 trillion cubic feet. Supplies are down 16% from a year ago and down 3% from the five-year average.
MCX Crude Oil July - Technical Outlook:
Tech The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is Negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Technicals are neutral to sideways signaling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 5660 level. if broken can see further fall to 5537 and 5390 If market holds above 5781 further rally can be seen towards 5878 and 6025
Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil July: Buy at 5610 Target 5705 and 5790 Stoploss 5565
MCX Natural gas July - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Technicals have turned neutral to bullish and market is expected to remain positive above 570 if sustain above this level can see a rally towards 587 and 599 If market sustains below 558 can see a further fall towards 541 and 529
Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas July: Buy at 548 Target 555 and 562 Stop loss at 544
MCXARUN
9994500540
Friday, June 20, 2008
MCX Gold trades towards a weekly highs
Gold rose to a one-week high on speculation that surging costs of raw materials will boost demand for the precious metal as a hedge against inflation. Silver also gained.
Gold has had a correlation of 0.70 against the euro-dollar exchange rate this year, compared with 0.58 last year, Bloomberg data show. A figure of 1 would mean the two move in lockstep. The dollar slid to a one-week low versus the euro on speculation a report today will show a contraction in U.S. manufacturing, encouraging the Federal Reserve to delay raising interest rates.
Spot gold traded sideways to upside, struggling to find a direction amid uncertainty over the dollar's short-term prospects, The dollar weakened as weak quarterly performances from Wall Street banks have refocused the market's attention on the impact of the credit crisis on the U.S. economy.
South Africa, the biggest precious metals producer, said mining output fell 2 percent in April. Gold production dropped 10.1 percent from a year earlier, Pretoria-based Statistics South Africa, the national statistics agency, Non-gold output fell 0.7 percent.
Russia's foreign currency and gold reserves, the world's third largest, rose to a record $551.5 billion last week, The value of reserves increased by $2.4 billion in the week
ended June 13, Moscow-based Bank Rossii, the central bank, the reserves gained $500 million in the previous week.
India's largest commodity exchange, the Multi Commodity Exchange, will launch platinum futures on Today; MCX will launch September and December contracts with Mumbai as the delivery center.
Gold imports by India, the world's largest consumer of the metal, fell 52% in May to 32.9 metric tons; the country imported around 107.9 tons of gold during the first five months of the year compared with 300 tons a year ago. As for silver, the country imported around 24 tons duty-free in May, the first time since December.
U.S.Economy:
The Conference Board's index of leading indicators was up .1% in May, a little better than expected.
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's regional index of manufacturing fell from -15.6 to -17.1 in June, weaker than expected.
The U.S. Labor Department said that jobless claims were down 5,000 last week to 381,000, a little more than expected.
Currencies update:
Inflation appears to be rising everywhere. Statistics Canada said that consumer prices were up 1.0% in May and up 2.2% from a year ago, more than expected. The core index of prices was up 1.5% in May from a year ago. Also, wholesale sales were up 1.4% in April. The September Canadian dollar is steady to higher.
The U.K.'s Office for National Statistics said that retail sales were up 3.5% in May, much stronger than expected and the biggest jump in 20 years.
MCX Gold June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Technicals have turned neutral to bullish and market is expected to remain positive above 12649 levels. If sustain above this level can see a rally towards 12769 and 12927 If market sustains below 12491 can see a further fall towards 12371 and 12213
Recommendations–MCX Gold Aug: Buy at 12435 Target 12570 and 12740 Stoploss at 12385
MCX Silver July - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Technical have turned neutral to bullish and market is expected to remain positive above 24790 levels. If sustain above this level can see a rally towards 25078 and 25347 If market sustains below 24390 can see a further fall towards 24171 and 23802
Recommendations-MCX Silver July: Buy at 24240 Target 24480 and 24790 stoploss at 24080
MCXARUN
9994500540
Gold has had a correlation of 0.70 against the euro-dollar exchange rate this year, compared with 0.58 last year, Bloomberg data show. A figure of 1 would mean the two move in lockstep. The dollar slid to a one-week low versus the euro on speculation a report today will show a contraction in U.S. manufacturing, encouraging the Federal Reserve to delay raising interest rates.
Spot gold traded sideways to upside, struggling to find a direction amid uncertainty over the dollar's short-term prospects, The dollar weakened as weak quarterly performances from Wall Street banks have refocused the market's attention on the impact of the credit crisis on the U.S. economy.
South Africa, the biggest precious metals producer, said mining output fell 2 percent in April. Gold production dropped 10.1 percent from a year earlier, Pretoria-based Statistics South Africa, the national statistics agency, Non-gold output fell 0.7 percent.
Russia's foreign currency and gold reserves, the world's third largest, rose to a record $551.5 billion last week, The value of reserves increased by $2.4 billion in the week
ended June 13, Moscow-based Bank Rossii, the central bank, the reserves gained $500 million in the previous week.
India's largest commodity exchange, the Multi Commodity Exchange, will launch platinum futures on Today; MCX will launch September and December contracts with Mumbai as the delivery center.
Gold imports by India, the world's largest consumer of the metal, fell 52% in May to 32.9 metric tons; the country imported around 107.9 tons of gold during the first five months of the year compared with 300 tons a year ago. As for silver, the country imported around 24 tons duty-free in May, the first time since December.
U.S.Economy:
The Conference Board's index of leading indicators was up .1% in May, a little better than expected.
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's regional index of manufacturing fell from -15.6 to -17.1 in June, weaker than expected.
The U.S. Labor Department said that jobless claims were down 5,000 last week to 381,000, a little more than expected.
Currencies update:
Inflation appears to be rising everywhere. Statistics Canada said that consumer prices were up 1.0% in May and up 2.2% from a year ago, more than expected. The core index of prices was up 1.5% in May from a year ago. Also, wholesale sales were up 1.4% in April. The September Canadian dollar is steady to higher.
The U.K.'s Office for National Statistics said that retail sales were up 3.5% in May, much stronger than expected and the biggest jump in 20 years.
MCX Gold June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Technicals have turned neutral to bullish and market is expected to remain positive above 12649 levels. If sustain above this level can see a rally towards 12769 and 12927 If market sustains below 12491 can see a further fall towards 12371 and 12213
Recommendations–MCX Gold Aug: Buy at 12435 Target 12570 and 12740 Stoploss at 12385
MCX Silver July - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Technical have turned neutral to bullish and market is expected to remain positive above 24790 levels. If sustain above this level can see a rally towards 25078 and 25347 If market sustains below 24390 can see a further fall towards 24171 and 23802
Recommendations-MCX Silver July: Buy at 24240 Target 24480 and 24790 stoploss at 24080
MCXARUN
9994500540
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
Crude oil has fallen after china raised energy prices. China raised petrol and diesel by 18 per cent and electricity tariffs rose by just less than 5 per cent. Technically if crude oil does not break $141 in the rest of the month then a fall to $120 and $110.60 is on the cards. Base metals will be volatile after the Peru government clinched a deal with mining workers. However workers are yet to return to work. Trading strategy in base metals is to buy only on a break of key technical resistances. Nickel continues to disappoint and looks set to fall below 2008 lows.
Next week is Fed week. Till then there is no major market moving economic news. The Fed is expected to remain hawkish and thereafter the US dollar will be the key to commodity prices. Crude oil traders will be preparing for the hurricane season in July. July to September, hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico will be the key for crude oil prices. In 2007 crude oil prices fell as there no major hurricanes.
COPPER -- JULY FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $363.0
$371 price target achieved. As long as copper holds $369 it will target $386 and $394.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $131.60
A fall below $130.64 will result in $125.60 and $121.60. Resistance at $135.10 and $138.60
MCXARUN
9994500540
Next week is Fed week. Till then there is no major market moving economic news. The Fed is expected to remain hawkish and thereafter the US dollar will be the key to commodity prices. Crude oil traders will be preparing for the hurricane season in July. July to September, hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico will be the key for crude oil prices. In 2007 crude oil prices fell as there no major hurricanes.
COPPER -- JULY FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $363.0
$371 price target achieved. As long as copper holds $369 it will target $386 and $394.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $131.60
A fall below $130.64 will result in $125.60 and $121.60. Resistance at $135.10 and $138.60
MCXARUN
9994500540
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