Energy

Crude-oil futures rose for a fourth day on Thursday to above $97 a barrel after government reports showed U.S. crude inventories fell for a sixth week and as geopolitical tensions escalated after former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto was assassinated.

U.S. crude inventories fell by 3.3 million barrels to 293.6 million barrels in the week ending Dec. 21, the lowest in nearly three years, U.S. Energy Information Administration reported on Thursday. Analysts polled by Dow Jones Newswires were expecting a drawdown of 1.2 million barrels.

U.S. crude inventories have fallen more than 20 million barrels since the week ending Nov. 9. U.S. is the world's largest crude-oil consumer, accounting for nearly a quarter of the world's production.

Pakistani opposition leader Bhutto died after a suicide bombing that also killed at least 20 others after a political rally in Rawalpindi, Pakistan. Pakistan, while not a significant oil producer, holds nuclear weapons, and the death of Bhutto could increase tensions in the region.

Weekly Crude Oil Inventory:

US Weekly distillate stocks: Actual -2.800m; Reuters Survey -0.800m; Prior -2.100m

US Weekly crude oil stocks: Actual -3.300m; Reuters Survey -1.000m; Prior -7.600m

US Weekly gasoline stocks: Actual 0.700m; Reuters Survey 1.600m; Prior 3.000m

Impact: Overall data is supportive for higher energy prices

MCX Crude Oil Jan (Daily Chart)



Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies have turned bullish; will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are increasing from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 18-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Crude Oil Jan: sell at 3820-3830 for target of 3768 and 3706 with stop loss below 3865

MCX Natural gas Jan (Daily Chart)



Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are still bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Natural Gas Jan: buy at Buy at 274-75 for the target of 285 and 290 with stop loss at 270.40

MCXARUN
9994500540

precious metals

Precious metals zoomed in MCX, COMEX and spot markets reflecting the trends in international markets supported by Bhutto death, positive consumer confidence data and increase in jobless claims.

Gold rallied on Thursday tracing the gains in oil and a weak dollar. International spot gold currently quoted at $827 troy an ounce, up by $3 Oil traded at $97.20 per barrel. The euro was up against the dollar.

Benazir Bhutto, the former Prime Minister of Pakistan, was killed on 27th Dec 2007, along with at least 14 of her supporters in an intentional suicidal attack. Bhutto led the opposition against President Musharraf and her death adds even more fuel to what was already a highly flammable political situation.

US Economic data gave a support to higher bullion prices as consumer confidences was les then expected and Job less claim data increased.

The U.S. Commerce Department said that durable good orders were up .1% in November, less than expected. Excluding transportation, orders were down .7% in November.

The Conference Board's index of consumer confidence increased from 87.8 to 88.6 in December, stronger than expected.

MCX Gold Feb (Daily Chart)

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies have turned bullish; will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are increasing from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 18-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Gold Feb: Buy at 10455-475 for the target of 10550 and 10600 with stop loss at 10430

MCX Silver Mar (Daily Chart)

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies have turned bullish; will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are increasing from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 18-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Silver March: Buy at 19200-250 for the target of 19340 and 19520 with stop loss at 19120

MCXARUN
9994500540

trade signals

Crude Oil:

Front month crude oil is weaker in ACCESS trade this morning reversing the firmer tone seen during the prior session. Trend indicators are indicating a bullish market and the overall strength of the trend is strong, as indicated by the ADX. Momentum readings are also in bullish territory.

TREND INDICATORS:

Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. However, despite prices trading above the moving average line, the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session. If prices trade below the moving average then the trend will be clearly established as up. However, this strength in the price will need to be watched. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a weak bearish bias.

Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is rising, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. As the ADX is rising it indicates that the current trend is strong and should remain intact. Look for the current trend to continue.

MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory.

RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 60.16). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 60.16 the market is somewhat overbought. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of weakness from this indicator before getting too bearish here.

VOLATILITY INDICATORS:

Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Despite this overbought condition the market may become more overbought before turning lower. As a result, the market will look for additional weakening in prices before turning bearish on this indicator.

RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:

99.29 - Highest High in last 50-Days
96.54 - Highest High in last 10-Days
96.09 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
95.97 - High
95.94 - Last Price
95.63 - Low
95.35 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
93.59 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
92.63 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
92.44 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
91.98 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
89.15 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
88.60 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
86.11 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
84.91 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
84.68 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
76.09 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average

Natural Gas:

Natural Gas contracts are higher this morning extending the prior sessions gains. Trend indicators are indicating a bearish market. However the overall strength of the trend, as indicated by the ADX, is weak and should be watched as a result.

TREND INDICATORS:

Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. However, even though prices are trading above the moving average, the moving average slope is down from the previous session. Should prices continue higher the moving average will eventually follow and then the up trend will be more clearly established. However, this weakness in the moving average will need to be watched. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a weak bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session indicating further weakness. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bearish bias.

Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session indicating further weakness. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bearish bias.

ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is falling, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is down. However, the weak ADX indicates that the current trend is deteriorating and may possibly reverse. Look for a choppiness ahead.

MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory.

RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 46.46). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 46.46 the market is somewhat oversold. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of strength from this indicator before getting too bullish here.

VOLATILITY INDICATORS:

Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating oversold prices. Volatility also appears to be decreasing, as evidenced by a smaller distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions.

RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:

8.712 - Highest High in last 50-Days
7.529 - Highest High in last 10-Days
7.494 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
7.407 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
7.296 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
7.279 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
7.188 - High
7.180 - Last Price
7.173 - Low
7.163 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
7.139 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
7.129 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
7.074 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
6.973 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
6.963 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
6.914 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
6.640 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days

MCXARUN
9994500540

trade signals

Copper:

Copper trade on ACCESS is showing higher prices in recent activity extending the prior sessions gains. Trend indicators are indicating a bearish market and the overall strength of the trend is strong, as indicated by the ADX.

TREND INDICATORS:

Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices cross above this moving average. However, despite prices trading above the moving average line, the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session. If prices trade below the moving average then the trend will be clearly established as up. However, this strength in the price will need to be watched. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a weak bearish bias.

ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is rising, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is down. As the ADX is rising this indicates that the current trend is strong and should remain intact. Look for the current trend to continue.

MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory.

RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 57.50). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 57.50 the market is somewhat overbought. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of weakness from this indicator before getting too bearish here.

VOLATILITY INDICATORS:

Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Volatility also appears to be increasing, as evidenced by a larger distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions. Despite this overbought condition the market may become more overbought before turning lower. As a result, the market will look for additional weakening in prices before turning bearish on this indicator.

RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:

3.6500 - Highest High in last 50-Days
3.3833 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
3.3173 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
3.2316 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
3.2050 - Highest High in last 10-Days
3.1840 - Last Price
3.1840 - High
3.1750 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
3.1692 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
3.1550 - Low
3.1415 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
3.0446 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
3.0219 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
2.9615 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
2.8714 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
2.8530 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
2.8530 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days

MCXARUN
9994500540

trade signals

COMEX Gold:

Gold trading is weaker in ACCESS trade this morning reversing the firmer tone seen during the prior session. Trend indicators have moved from a bullish to a neutral price pattern.

TREND INDICATORS:

Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is rising, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. As the ADX is rising it indicates that the current trend is strong and should remain intact. Look for the current trend to continue.

MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory.

RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 59.67). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 59.67 the market is somewhat overbought. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of weakness from this indicator before getting too bearish here.

VOLATILITY INDICATORS:

Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Despite this overbought condition the market may become more overbought before turning lower. As a result, the market will look for additional weakening in prices before turning bearish on this indicator.

RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:

848.00 - Highest High in last 50-Days
830.20 - Highest High in last 10-Days
828.80 - High
828.04 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
826.20 - Last Price
825.20 - Low
824.07 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
818.00 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
810.56 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
810.49 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
802.60 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
797.90 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
789.60 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
787.86 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
757.51 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
749.00 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
714.23 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average

COMEX Silver:

Silver futures are weaker this morning reversing the firmer tone seen during the prior session. Trend indicators are showing the market in a neutral price pattern at present.

TREND INDICATORS:

Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. However, despite prices trading above the moving average line, the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session. If prices trade below the moving average then the trend will be clearly established as up. However, this strength in the price will need to be watched. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a weak bearish bias.

Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is falling, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. However, the weak ADX indicates that the current trend is deteriorating and may possibly reverse. Look for choppiness ahead.

MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory.

RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 57.11). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 57.11 the market is somewhat overbought. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of weakness from this indicator before getting too bearish here.

VOLATILITY INDICATORS:

Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. The market is overbought and appears to be encountering resistance near recent highs. Look for a potential top in this area.

RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:

16.275 - Highest High in last 50-Days
15.020 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
14.900 - Highest High in last 10-Days
14.830 - High
14.800 - Last Price
14.765 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
14.765 - Low
14.738 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
14.522 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
14.493 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
14.371 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
14.174 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
13.892 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
13.740 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
13.695 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
13.493 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
13.325 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days

MCXARUN
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outlook

February gold closed higher on Thursday as it extends last Friday's rally above the 20-day moving average crossing at 808.10.
The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 844.20 is the next
upside target. From a broad perspective, February gold needs to close above 855.00 or below 780.40 to confirm a breakout of
the late-fall trading range and point the direction of the next trending move. First resistance is today's high crossing at 835.50
then the reaction high crossing at 844.20. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 810.90 then the 20-day moving
average crossing at 808.10.

March silver closed slightly lower on Thursday and as it consolidated some of this week's rally but remains above the 20-day
moving average crossing at 14.456. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI
remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, this month's
high crossing at 14.975 is the next upside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 14.905 then the reaction high
crossing at 14.975. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.456 then the 10-day moving average crossing at
14.369.

February crude oil closed higher on Thursday as it extended this week's rally and closed above minor resistance crossing at
94.72. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends this week's rally, November's high crossing
at 98.12 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 91.04 would temper the near-term
friendly outlook in the market. A close below the reaction low crossing at 85.60 would renew the decline off November's high.
First resistance is today's high crossing at 97.79. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 98.12. First support is the
10-day moving average crossing at 92.77 then the 20-day moving average crossing at 91.04.

February Henry natural gas closed slightly higher on Thursday but remains below the 10-day moving average crossing at 7.224.
The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that
sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February renews the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing
at 6.801 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 7.608 are needed to confirm that a short-term
low has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 7.380 then the reaction high crossing at 7.608. First support is
today's low crossing at 6.950 then weekly support crossing at 6.801.

MCXARUN
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GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS

Technical break out, thin market conditions, a weaker US dollar and stronger crude oil prices resulted in gold and silver edging higher. Crude oil has risen on expectations that US weekly crude oil inventories will fall. If crude oil inventories fall sharply then it can easily edge past $100. There is lack of major market moving news, volumes are low and even a small short covering results in prices rising.

Crude oil got support from the ongoing war between Turkey and Kurdish rebels in Northern Iraq. Unless geopolitical tensions ease crude oil will continue to rise. Higher crude oil prices and higher gold prices is more of a US dollar collapse story which will continue in the first quarter of 2008. The key question will be what will be top in crude oil, if it breaks and floats over $100.

Technical picture in gold, silver and crude oil is bullish. However they could fall, without altering the bullish trend as and when there is profit taking.

GOLD -- FEBRURAY FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT:$823

Gold targets $848 and $888 in short term as long as it floats over $812. Gold has to close below $812 to be in bearish zone.

MCXARUN
9994500540