MCX Gold is bullish; can go up to higher levels
30 June 2008 10:56:25
MCX Gold: The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices.
The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations–MCX Gold Aug: Buy at 12765 Target 12840 and 12900 Stoploss at 12718
MCXARUN
9994500540
Monday, June 30, 2008
copper intraday
Copper rises on inventory data at SHFE
30 June 2008 10:38:21
Copper futures ticked to their highest level in 1 1/2 months Friday with the help of recent U.S. dollar weakness, inventory declines and chart-based momentum.
Much of the influence has been the recently softer U.S. dollar, Warrants and deliverable copper were down in Shanghai in a surprise drop, and LME stocks were a little bit lower although certainly not eye-popping
Once-a-week inventory data released on Fridays for the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed a fall of 1,016 metric tons to 32,401. Inventories of copper stored in London Metal Exchange warehouses fell 150 metric tons Friday, leaving them at 122,900.
Much of the buying in copper and other commodities has been inflation-related, Light speculative buying occurred.
A key for the markets this week will be a European Central Bank meeting. There are expectations for a rate hike, which may prompt further weakness in the dollar. This tends to support commodities such as copper.
However, such a move would also mean a slowing of the economy there, which also has demand implications for the metal.
The most recent Comex inventory data, released late Thursday afternoon, were steady at 11,040 short tons. Copper inventories at LME, increased by -150 MT to 122900 MT.
MCX Copper June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The prices closed above short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading upwards in positive region, showing increase in bullish momentum.
Technical have turned neutral to bullish and market is expected to remain positive above 366.8 levels. If sustain above this level can see a rally towards 369.2 and 373.6, If market sustains below 362.4 can see a further fall towards 360.0 and 355.6
Recommendations-MCX Copper June: Buy at 366 Target 369 and 372 SL 364
MCXARUN
9994500540
30 June 2008 10:38:21
Copper futures ticked to their highest level in 1 1/2 months Friday with the help of recent U.S. dollar weakness, inventory declines and chart-based momentum.
Much of the influence has been the recently softer U.S. dollar, Warrants and deliverable copper were down in Shanghai in a surprise drop, and LME stocks were a little bit lower although certainly not eye-popping
Once-a-week inventory data released on Fridays for the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed a fall of 1,016 metric tons to 32,401. Inventories of copper stored in London Metal Exchange warehouses fell 150 metric tons Friday, leaving them at 122,900.
Much of the buying in copper and other commodities has been inflation-related, Light speculative buying occurred.
A key for the markets this week will be a European Central Bank meeting. There are expectations for a rate hike, which may prompt further weakness in the dollar. This tends to support commodities such as copper.
However, such a move would also mean a slowing of the economy there, which also has demand implications for the metal.
The most recent Comex inventory data, released late Thursday afternoon, were steady at 11,040 short tons. Copper inventories at LME, increased by -150 MT to 122900 MT.
MCX Copper June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The prices closed above short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading upwards in positive region, showing increase in bullish momentum.
Technical have turned neutral to bullish and market is expected to remain positive above 366.8 levels. If sustain above this level can see a rally towards 369.2 and 373.6, If market sustains below 362.4 can see a further fall towards 360.0 and 355.6
Recommendations-MCX Copper June: Buy at 366 Target 369 and 372 SL 364
MCXARUN
9994500540
ENERGY intraday
Crdue Oil trades higher on speculative buying
30 June 2008 10:41:45
Oil prices jumped to record high levels above $142 a barrel on Friday, as the US currency weakened further and stock markets tumbled at the end of a volatile trading week for investors. New York light sweet crude struck a historic peak of $142.26 a barrel and Brent North Sea crude reached an all-time high of $142.13 in electronic deals.
World stocks fell to a three-month low as a fast deteriorating global inflation picture intensified concerns over the outlook for corporate profits, hastening the rush of investors' funds into commodities. 40 percent surge in oil prices this year has prompted U.S. politicians to take steps to try to curb speculation in the oil market, that some blame for pushing up prices.
Weakness in the U.S. dollar has almost become a "self-fulfilling prophecy", a scaling back of U.S. rate expectations has pushed the dollar lower, encouraging gains in the oil price and in turn exacerbating worries over inflation and the outlook for the U.S. economy.
Moreover, the dollar could be set to "lose ground rapidly" next week in the event of a combination of negative factors for the currency, namely a rate hike in the euro zone, further weak U.S. data and poor liquidity ahead of the July 4 holiday in the U.S.
Crude also got a leg up after Libya threatened an output cut. Shokri Ghanem, chief of Libya's national oil company, reiterated his Sunday comments that Libya "sees a possibility for a decrease in production.
The U.S. House of Representatives on Thursday approved legislation which directs the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the futures market regulator, to use all its authority including emergency powers to "curb immediately" the role of excessive speculation in energy futures markets, Talks between oil workers and Chevron continued in Nigeria, with the oil minister saying he was confident a deal could be reached, but union officials left open the possibility of a strike early this week.
Natural gas in New York gained as rude oil rose to a record and on speculation lower stockpiles ill push prices higher later this year. Declining imports of gas from Canada and reduced supplies of liquefied natural gas have increased speculation of a possible supply crunch next winter and higher prices
Higher oil prices have also made natural gas cheaper on a relative basis, prompting those seeking a bargain to buy. On an energy equivalency basis, oil used to heat buildings and run power plants traded at a premium to gas in New York of about 39 percent.
MCX Crude Oil July - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil July: Buy at 5985 Target 6040 and 6120 Stoploss 5935
MCX Natural gas July - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas July: Buy at 564 Target 569 and 576 Stop loss at 559
MCXARUN
9994500540
30 June 2008 10:41:45
Oil prices jumped to record high levels above $142 a barrel on Friday, as the US currency weakened further and stock markets tumbled at the end of a volatile trading week for investors. New York light sweet crude struck a historic peak of $142.26 a barrel and Brent North Sea crude reached an all-time high of $142.13 in electronic deals.
World stocks fell to a three-month low as a fast deteriorating global inflation picture intensified concerns over the outlook for corporate profits, hastening the rush of investors' funds into commodities. 40 percent surge in oil prices this year has prompted U.S. politicians to take steps to try to curb speculation in the oil market, that some blame for pushing up prices.
Weakness in the U.S. dollar has almost become a "self-fulfilling prophecy", a scaling back of U.S. rate expectations has pushed the dollar lower, encouraging gains in the oil price and in turn exacerbating worries over inflation and the outlook for the U.S. economy.
Moreover, the dollar could be set to "lose ground rapidly" next week in the event of a combination of negative factors for the currency, namely a rate hike in the euro zone, further weak U.S. data and poor liquidity ahead of the July 4 holiday in the U.S.
Crude also got a leg up after Libya threatened an output cut. Shokri Ghanem, chief of Libya's national oil company, reiterated his Sunday comments that Libya "sees a possibility for a decrease in production.
The U.S. House of Representatives on Thursday approved legislation which directs the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the futures market regulator, to use all its authority including emergency powers to "curb immediately" the role of excessive speculation in energy futures markets, Talks between oil workers and Chevron continued in Nigeria, with the oil minister saying he was confident a deal could be reached, but union officials left open the possibility of a strike early this week.
Natural gas in New York gained as rude oil rose to a record and on speculation lower stockpiles ill push prices higher later this year. Declining imports of gas from Canada and reduced supplies of liquefied natural gas have increased speculation of a possible supply crunch next winter and higher prices
Higher oil prices have also made natural gas cheaper on a relative basis, prompting those seeking a bargain to buy. On an energy equivalency basis, oil used to heat buildings and run power plants traded at a premium to gas in New York of about 39 percent.
MCX Crude Oil July - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil July: Buy at 5985 Target 6040 and 6120 Stoploss 5935
MCX Natural gas July - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas July: Buy at 564 Target 569 and 576 Stop loss at 559
MCXARUN
9994500540
BULLION intraday
Gold rises highest in a month
30 June 2008 10:40:02
Gold rose to the highest in a month as record energy costs boost demand for the precious metal as a hedge against inflation. Silver also gained. Crude-oil futures reached an all-time high above $142 a barrel on Friday and have doubled in the past year. Gold climbed to a record $1,033.90 an ounce in March as a slumping dollar and soaring raw-material prices spurred investors to purchase precious metals to protect against a loss of purchasing power.
Gold headed for a second weekly gain as crude oil rose to a record and the dollar weakened, boosting the appeal of the metal as a hedge against inflation and an alternative investment to the U.S. currency. And it has extended the rally that began after Wednesday's FOMC statement put on hold the possibility of higher U.S. interest rates that rallied the euro. And now crude oil has surged further, adding to worries about inflation.
The fortunes of gold remain closely tied to the course of the dollar for now, with an improvement in the currency's fortunes against the other major currencies not seen on the near-term horizon. But expectations are that when the dollar does begin to sustain a recovery, the slide in gold prices would be swift and furious.
New crest Mining Ltd. (NCM.AU) said gold production at its Telfer mine in Western Australia will be between 20,000 and 25,000 ounces lower in June due to the impact of gas shortages. it is now expecting gold production from Telfer of between 700,000 ounces and 750,000 ounces for fiscal 2009.
Gold will probably rally to $1,000 an ounce by the end of the year and ``work higher'' in the next two years, Citigroup Inc. said
ETF Securities Ltd., manager of $6 billion of commodity-backed investments, agreed to buy the two- thirds of two gold funds it didn't already own from the World Gold Council, doubling its assets of the precious metal. ETF bought control of Lyxor Gold Bullion Securities in London and Gold Bullion Securities in Melbourne from the World Gold Council's Gold Bullion Holdings for an undisclosed price, Jersey-based ETF Securities said in a statement. The two products have gold assets of 126 metric tons (4.05 million ounces) compared with 1.3 million ounces at ETF Securities.
U.S.Economy:
The U.S. Commerce Department said that personal incomes were up 1.9% in May while consumer spending was up .8%. The higher figures were attributed to the government's stimulus checks.
The Commerce Department also said that the core rate of personal consumption expenditures (an inflation indicator) was up .1% in May and up 2.1% from a year ago, less than expected.
The University of Michigan's index of consumer sentiment dropped from 59.8 to 56.4 in June, a little less than expected
Currencies update:
The yen strengthened from a record low against the euro and rose versus the dollar as a slump in stock markets around the world reduced demand for higher- yielding assets funded by loans in Japan.
ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet virtually pre-announced a rate hike at the central bank's last news conference, when he said that the council had moved to a state of "heightened alertness" on inflation risks and that it could raise rates by a small amount at the July 3 meeting.
The U.K.'s Office for National Statistics said that real GDP was up 2.3% in the first quarter from a year ago, down from its 2.5% estimate a month ago and weaker than expected. Nominal GDP was up 5.3% in the first quarter from a year ago.
MCX Silver July - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations-MCX Silver July: Buy at 24660 Target 24890 and 25040 stoploss at 23495
MCXARUN
9994500540
30 June 2008 10:40:02
Gold rose to the highest in a month as record energy costs boost demand for the precious metal as a hedge against inflation. Silver also gained. Crude-oil futures reached an all-time high above $142 a barrel on Friday and have doubled in the past year. Gold climbed to a record $1,033.90 an ounce in March as a slumping dollar and soaring raw-material prices spurred investors to purchase precious metals to protect against a loss of purchasing power.
Gold headed for a second weekly gain as crude oil rose to a record and the dollar weakened, boosting the appeal of the metal as a hedge against inflation and an alternative investment to the U.S. currency. And it has extended the rally that began after Wednesday's FOMC statement put on hold the possibility of higher U.S. interest rates that rallied the euro. And now crude oil has surged further, adding to worries about inflation.
The fortunes of gold remain closely tied to the course of the dollar for now, with an improvement in the currency's fortunes against the other major currencies not seen on the near-term horizon. But expectations are that when the dollar does begin to sustain a recovery, the slide in gold prices would be swift and furious.
New crest Mining Ltd. (NCM.AU) said gold production at its Telfer mine in Western Australia will be between 20,000 and 25,000 ounces lower in June due to the impact of gas shortages. it is now expecting gold production from Telfer of between 700,000 ounces and 750,000 ounces for fiscal 2009.
Gold will probably rally to $1,000 an ounce by the end of the year and ``work higher'' in the next two years, Citigroup Inc. said
ETF Securities Ltd., manager of $6 billion of commodity-backed investments, agreed to buy the two- thirds of two gold funds it didn't already own from the World Gold Council, doubling its assets of the precious metal. ETF bought control of Lyxor Gold Bullion Securities in London and Gold Bullion Securities in Melbourne from the World Gold Council's Gold Bullion Holdings for an undisclosed price, Jersey-based ETF Securities said in a statement. The two products have gold assets of 126 metric tons (4.05 million ounces) compared with 1.3 million ounces at ETF Securities.
U.S.Economy:
The U.S. Commerce Department said that personal incomes were up 1.9% in May while consumer spending was up .8%. The higher figures were attributed to the government's stimulus checks.
The Commerce Department also said that the core rate of personal consumption expenditures (an inflation indicator) was up .1% in May and up 2.1% from a year ago, less than expected.
The University of Michigan's index of consumer sentiment dropped from 59.8 to 56.4 in June, a little less than expected
Currencies update:
The yen strengthened from a record low against the euro and rose versus the dollar as a slump in stock markets around the world reduced demand for higher- yielding assets funded by loans in Japan.
ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet virtually pre-announced a rate hike at the central bank's last news conference, when he said that the council had moved to a state of "heightened alertness" on inflation risks and that it could raise rates by a small amount at the July 3 meeting.
The U.K.'s Office for National Statistics said that real GDP was up 2.3% in the first quarter from a year ago, down from its 2.5% estimate a month ago and weaker than expected. Nominal GDP was up 5.3% in the first quarter from a year ago.
MCX Silver July - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations-MCX Silver July: Buy at 24660 Target 24890 and 25040 stoploss at 23495
MCXARUN
9994500540
CRUDE intraday&weekly outlook
Crude Oil : Extends gains tracking NYMEX
30 June 2008 10:27:14
Oil prices recorded a fresh high on Friday, as comments from the OPEC President and a threat from Libya to cut its crude output worsened the supply worries.
Crude oil August in NYMEX settled at $140.54 on Friday, after touching an all-time high of $142.99 a barrel.
Chakib Khelil, president of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, said he believes oil prices could rise to between $150 and $170 a barrel this summer.
Libya's most senior oil official Shokri Ghanem said that he was studying the possibility of reducing production in response to a bill before the US Congress that would empower the Justice Department to sue members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries for limiting oil supplies.
On Wednesday, the US Energy Department's Energy Information Administration had reported the first weekly rise in US crude supply in six weeks. According to the EIA, US crude supplies climbed by 800,000 barrels to 301.8 million for the week ended June 20.
Short-term supply concerns due to geo-political tensions in the Middle East and Nigeria underpin the prices of oil.
In a widely expected move, the Fed on Wednesday kept its benchmark interest rate steady at 2 % and warned that upside risks to inflation have increased.
At a meeting of oil producers and consumers on Sunday, Saudi Arabia said it would raise its daily production by 200,000 barrels in July, in addition to the increase of 300,000 barrels a day which had been announced in May. This would make the total production from the country 9.7 million barrels a day.
But frequent militant attacks on Nigerian oil facilities continue to pose threats to supply from the oil-rich Niger Delta.
The oil cartel OPEC in its latest monthly oil market report had cut its estimate for 2008 global oil demand to an increase of 1.1 million barrels a day, from an increase of 1.17 million barrels projected earlier. The total global oil consumption was revised to 86.88 million barrels a day from the previous estimate of 86.95 million barrels a day.
Earlier, the International Energy Agency had lowered its forecast for average global oil product demand in 2008 to 86.8 million barrels a day, down 80,000 barrels a day from its previous estimate.
According to the latest energy-outlook report from the US Energy Information Administration, global oil consumption was up a lower than expected 630,000 barrels per day during the first quarter of 2008 compared with year-ago levels, against the expected growth by 1 million barrels a day.
Potential supply threats due to geo-political tensions and the Atlantic hurricane season also continue to underpin oil prices.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1st. Arthur, the first Atlantic storm of the season had forced the closure of two export terminals in Mexico early this month, before weakening to a tropical depression creating heavy rains in the Gulf of Mexico.
Weekly Outlook (Crude oil NYMEX)
Continuation of uptrend expected above $140. Resistances $144.40, $149.70, $154.80; supports $138.00, $132.00, $127.60.
DWTI (July) traded in the range $139.15 - $142.91 and closed at $140.21 ($139.64).
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
DGCXCrude (July) - Bullish above 140.85; bearish below 140.30
MCXARUN
9994500540
30 June 2008 10:27:14
Oil prices recorded a fresh high on Friday, as comments from the OPEC President and a threat from Libya to cut its crude output worsened the supply worries.
Crude oil August in NYMEX settled at $140.54 on Friday, after touching an all-time high of $142.99 a barrel.
Chakib Khelil, president of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, said he believes oil prices could rise to between $150 and $170 a barrel this summer.
Libya's most senior oil official Shokri Ghanem said that he was studying the possibility of reducing production in response to a bill before the US Congress that would empower the Justice Department to sue members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries for limiting oil supplies.
On Wednesday, the US Energy Department's Energy Information Administration had reported the first weekly rise in US crude supply in six weeks. According to the EIA, US crude supplies climbed by 800,000 barrels to 301.8 million for the week ended June 20.
Short-term supply concerns due to geo-political tensions in the Middle East and Nigeria underpin the prices of oil.
In a widely expected move, the Fed on Wednesday kept its benchmark interest rate steady at 2 % and warned that upside risks to inflation have increased.
At a meeting of oil producers and consumers on Sunday, Saudi Arabia said it would raise its daily production by 200,000 barrels in July, in addition to the increase of 300,000 barrels a day which had been announced in May. This would make the total production from the country 9.7 million barrels a day.
But frequent militant attacks on Nigerian oil facilities continue to pose threats to supply from the oil-rich Niger Delta.
The oil cartel OPEC in its latest monthly oil market report had cut its estimate for 2008 global oil demand to an increase of 1.1 million barrels a day, from an increase of 1.17 million barrels projected earlier. The total global oil consumption was revised to 86.88 million barrels a day from the previous estimate of 86.95 million barrels a day.
Earlier, the International Energy Agency had lowered its forecast for average global oil product demand in 2008 to 86.8 million barrels a day, down 80,000 barrels a day from its previous estimate.
According to the latest energy-outlook report from the US Energy Information Administration, global oil consumption was up a lower than expected 630,000 barrels per day during the first quarter of 2008 compared with year-ago levels, against the expected growth by 1 million barrels a day.
Potential supply threats due to geo-political tensions and the Atlantic hurricane season also continue to underpin oil prices.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1st. Arthur, the first Atlantic storm of the season had forced the closure of two export terminals in Mexico early this month, before weakening to a tropical depression creating heavy rains in the Gulf of Mexico.
Weekly Outlook (Crude oil NYMEX)
Continuation of uptrend expected above $140. Resistances $144.40, $149.70, $154.80; supports $138.00, $132.00, $127.60.
DWTI (July) traded in the range $139.15 - $142.91 and closed at $140.21 ($139.64).
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
DGCXCrude (July) - Bullish above 140.85; bearish below 140.30
MCXARUN
9994500540
comex gold outlook
Gold : Weak Dollar, firm Oil bring in investment demand
30 June 2008 10:23:24
Gold extended gains on Friday, as investment demand of the yellow metal increased with the dollar remaining weak and oil prices surging to a new all-time high near $143 a barrel.
International spot gold traded as high as $930.40 and last quoted at $927.14 ($916.25). On weekly basis spot gold gained $26.30, approximately 3%.
Official data that showed a 10.1 percent decrease in South Africa’s gold production in April 2008, compared to the corresponding month in the previous year, supported the bullion.
Dollar extended the decline since the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at 2 %, as economic fears persisted amid mixed data from various sectors and upside risks to inflation.
University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to 56.4 in June, the lowest level since 1980, from a reading of 59.6 in May.
Initial claims for US state unemployment benefits were unchanged at 384,000 in the week ending June 21, the Labor Department reported Thursday. But the four-week average of those claims rose to 378,250.
The National Association of Realtors reported Thursday that sales of existing single-family homes and condominiums edged up by 2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.99 million units in May.
But the sale of new US single-family homes tumbled 2.5% in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 512,000, according to the Commerce Department. Compared with a year earlier, the new-home sales were down 40.3%.
Meanwhile, the US Commerce Department in its final revision to GDP estimates said Thursday that the economy grew at a slightly faster pace in the first quarter than originally reported. Real GDP was revised to a 1.0% annual rate in the first three months of the year, up from an originally reported reading of 0.9%.
The US Consumer Confidence fell in June to a 16-year low. According to Conference Board, June consumer confidence index fell to 50.4 from a reading of 58.1 in May.
The US trade deficit had widened 7.8% in April to a seasonally adjusted $60.9 billion from $56.5 billion in March, according to the report by US Commerce Department. The growing deficit was driven by a surge in crude oil imports, which eclipsed a significant gain in the nation’s exports.
The recent data from various sectors in the US have given rather mixed hints regarding the economy.
Oil prices rose to near $143 a barrel yesterday for the first time ever, boosted by comments from the OPEC President and a threat from Libya to cut its crude output. Short-term supply concerns due to geo-political tensions in the Middle East and Nigeria underpin the prices of oil.
Weekly Outlook (Spot Gold)
Continuation of uptrend is expected above $932. Supports are $922, $913; resistances $945, $954.
Last day DGCX Gold Aug traded in the range $912.60 – $932.70 and closed at $928.70 ($919.50).
DGCX Gold August
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (Aug) - Bullish above $ 928; bearish below $ 923
MCXARUN
9994500540
30 June 2008 10:23:24
Gold extended gains on Friday, as investment demand of the yellow metal increased with the dollar remaining weak and oil prices surging to a new all-time high near $143 a barrel.
International spot gold traded as high as $930.40 and last quoted at $927.14 ($916.25). On weekly basis spot gold gained $26.30, approximately 3%.
Official data that showed a 10.1 percent decrease in South Africa’s gold production in April 2008, compared to the corresponding month in the previous year, supported the bullion.
Dollar extended the decline since the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at 2 %, as economic fears persisted amid mixed data from various sectors and upside risks to inflation.
University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to 56.4 in June, the lowest level since 1980, from a reading of 59.6 in May.
Initial claims for US state unemployment benefits were unchanged at 384,000 in the week ending June 21, the Labor Department reported Thursday. But the four-week average of those claims rose to 378,250.
The National Association of Realtors reported Thursday that sales of existing single-family homes and condominiums edged up by 2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.99 million units in May.
But the sale of new US single-family homes tumbled 2.5% in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 512,000, according to the Commerce Department. Compared with a year earlier, the new-home sales were down 40.3%.
Meanwhile, the US Commerce Department in its final revision to GDP estimates said Thursday that the economy grew at a slightly faster pace in the first quarter than originally reported. Real GDP was revised to a 1.0% annual rate in the first three months of the year, up from an originally reported reading of 0.9%.
The US Consumer Confidence fell in June to a 16-year low. According to Conference Board, June consumer confidence index fell to 50.4 from a reading of 58.1 in May.
The US trade deficit had widened 7.8% in April to a seasonally adjusted $60.9 billion from $56.5 billion in March, according to the report by US Commerce Department. The growing deficit was driven by a surge in crude oil imports, which eclipsed a significant gain in the nation’s exports.
The recent data from various sectors in the US have given rather mixed hints regarding the economy.
Oil prices rose to near $143 a barrel yesterday for the first time ever, boosted by comments from the OPEC President and a threat from Libya to cut its crude output. Short-term supply concerns due to geo-political tensions in the Middle East and Nigeria underpin the prices of oil.
Weekly Outlook (Spot Gold)
Continuation of uptrend is expected above $932. Supports are $922, $913; resistances $945, $954.
Last day DGCX Gold Aug traded in the range $912.60 – $932.70 and closed at $928.70 ($919.50).
DGCX Gold August
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (Aug) - Bullish above $ 928; bearish below $ 923
MCXARUN
9994500540
Friday, June 27, 2008
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
Back to square one for metals and energies and for the US dollar. 2008 started with the search for alternate investments away from equities and finally we are catching up with the same. April till end June was a bit of a consolidation period for gold, silver and energies which seems to be seems to be over. Metals and energies gained on US dollar losses and the slump in global stock markets. Volatility will be on the higher side and managing volatility will be the key.
Crude oil prices rose to a new high of $140.39 after Libya said that it may put curbs on crude oil output. OPEC's president, Chakib Khelil, said a European interest-rate rise may send oil surging to $150-$170. US companies continued their downsizing of the work force. Brunswick Corp. plans to close four more North American plants and may fire as much as 10 percent of its workforce to slash costs after U.S. powerboat sales fell to the lowest in more than 40 years. Bank of America will cut about 7,500 jobs after buying Countrywide Financial Corp. The Fed will not be able to raise interest rates aggressively till US companies reduce their work force. Preference over growth to inflation will result in a short term steady decline the in the US dollar.
The US dollar fell after the Federal Reserve meeting on expectations that the European central bank and other central banks will raise interest rates faster than it. In the upcoming week the US dollar will trade with a softer bias unless there are comments from central bank officials. Interest rate differentials have caused the US dollar’s fall. The US dollar will gain if and only if either interest rate differential or growth differentials narrow. Crude oil prices will once again be the key factor for global financial markets
PLATINUM OCTOBER -- INTRA DAY PIVOT $2055.0
Platinum targets $2160 and $2360 by next week as long as $2032 and $2009 holds
MCX CARBON CREDIT --NOVEMBER (price in Indian Rupees)
Carbon Credit has to hold 1425 to be in bullish zone. Resistance at 1459 and 1486.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Crude oil prices rose to a new high of $140.39 after Libya said that it may put curbs on crude oil output. OPEC's president, Chakib Khelil, said a European interest-rate rise may send oil surging to $150-$170. US companies continued their downsizing of the work force. Brunswick Corp. plans to close four more North American plants and may fire as much as 10 percent of its workforce to slash costs after U.S. powerboat sales fell to the lowest in more than 40 years. Bank of America will cut about 7,500 jobs after buying Countrywide Financial Corp. The Fed will not be able to raise interest rates aggressively till US companies reduce their work force. Preference over growth to inflation will result in a short term steady decline the in the US dollar.
The US dollar fell after the Federal Reserve meeting on expectations that the European central bank and other central banks will raise interest rates faster than it. In the upcoming week the US dollar will trade with a softer bias unless there are comments from central bank officials. Interest rate differentials have caused the US dollar’s fall. The US dollar will gain if and only if either interest rate differential or growth differentials narrow. Crude oil prices will once again be the key factor for global financial markets
PLATINUM OCTOBER -- INTRA DAY PIVOT $2055.0
Platinum targets $2160 and $2360 by next week as long as $2032 and $2009 holds
MCX CARBON CREDIT --NOVEMBER (price in Indian Rupees)
Carbon Credit has to hold 1425 to be in bullish zone. Resistance at 1459 and 1486.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Thursday, June 26, 2008
safe trade calls
GOLD
we book profit on sell below 12250, for the day sell below 12190 & 12150 S/L 12220 and T/p 12075-50/towards 11975 OR buy abv 12375 S/L 12350 and T/p 12400-430/upto 12500 (any time close above 12630/12875/13050/13330/13510 bullish while close below 11920/11775/ 11375/11200 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
we book profit on sell below 23475, for the day sell below 23300-23275 S/L 23380 and T/p 23125/23000/22875/ down rally OR buy only abv 23725 S/L 23660 and T/p 23800/900-950/towards 24150 (any time close below 23275/ 23000-22875/22300/21575-500/20400/ 19250/18775 bearish rally while close above 24925/25500/26300/27700 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
PRICE TURN EXACT FROM OUR GIVEN SUPPORT LEVEL OF 5635. we book profit on sell below 5800, for the day sell below 5665 S/L 5685 and T/p 5630-40/close below 5630 test 5500 atleast/towards 5450 in coming days OR sell ard 5850-55 S/L 5860 and T/p 5815-5785, only sustain abv 5890/5950 & 6000 bullish rally again (now crude need to close above 6000 for bullish rally while close below 5635/5440/ 5215/5100/4415/3890 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
we book profit on sell below 356-355.5, for the day sell only below 352.5-352 S/L 353.5 and T/p 349.5/346.5/upto 344 OR buy abv 360.5-361.5 S/L 359 and T/p 363/365/368-70/towards 375 (upside strong rally only on close above 364.5 while close below 342-339/330-326.5/ 310 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
we book profit on sell below 12250, for the day sell below 12190 & 12150 S/L 12220 and T/p 12075-50/towards 11975 OR buy abv 12375 S/L 12350 and T/p 12400-430/upto 12500 (any time close above 12630/12875/13050/13330/13510 bullish while close below 11920/11775/ 11375/11200 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
we book profit on sell below 23475, for the day sell below 23300-23275 S/L 23380 and T/p 23125/23000/22875/ down rally OR buy only abv 23725 S/L 23660 and T/p 23800/900-950/towards 24150 (any time close below 23275/ 23000-22875/22300/21575-500/20400/ 19250/18775 bearish rally while close above 24925/25500/26300/27700 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
PRICE TURN EXACT FROM OUR GIVEN SUPPORT LEVEL OF 5635. we book profit on sell below 5800, for the day sell below 5665 S/L 5685 and T/p 5630-40/close below 5630 test 5500 atleast/towards 5450 in coming days OR sell ard 5850-55 S/L 5860 and T/p 5815-5785, only sustain abv 5890/5950 & 6000 bullish rally again (now crude need to close above 6000 for bullish rally while close below 5635/5440/ 5215/5100/4415/3890 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
we book profit on sell below 356-355.5, for the day sell only below 352.5-352 S/L 353.5 and T/p 349.5/346.5/upto 344 OR buy abv 360.5-361.5 S/L 359 and T/p 363/365/368-70/towards 375 (upside strong rally only on close above 364.5 while close below 342-339/330-326.5/ 310 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
long view calls
CRUDE OIL NYMEX
LIKELY TO TEST $ 127.5 - 28 TOWARDS $ 123.5 WITH ANY BREAK & SUSTAIN CLOSE BELOW $ 131.3, WHILE CLOSE ABOVE $ 138.75 & $ 140.5 TEST 144-45 ATLEAST TOWARDS $ 148 IN COMING DAYS
LEAD
LIKELY TO TEST 71 - 70 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 75.4, WHILE CLOSE ABOVE 89.5 & 100.5 UPTREND AGAIN(JUNE)
ZINC
LIKELY TO TEST 78 -75 UPTO 72 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 79.5, WHILE CLOSE ABOVE 86.5/91.5 & 94 UPTREND AGAIN
MCXARUN
9994500540
LIKELY TO TEST $ 127.5 - 28 TOWARDS $ 123.5 WITH ANY BREAK & SUSTAIN CLOSE BELOW $ 131.3, WHILE CLOSE ABOVE $ 138.75 & $ 140.5 TEST 144-45 ATLEAST TOWARDS $ 148 IN COMING DAYS
LEAD
LIKELY TO TEST 71 - 70 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 75.4, WHILE CLOSE ABOVE 89.5 & 100.5 UPTREND AGAIN(JUNE)
ZINC
LIKELY TO TEST 78 -75 UPTO 72 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 79.5, WHILE CLOSE ABOVE 86.5/91.5 & 94 UPTREND AGAIN
MCXARUN
9994500540
lead intraday
Lead registered weekly low
26 June 2008 10:03:09
MCX Lead dropped to a low of 77.85 and closed at 76.30 with net loss of 2.03% from previous closing. Intra day high registered near 78.00
Lead inventories at LME, increased by 1925 MT to 98675 MT.
MCX Lead June -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The prices closed below short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading downwards in positive region, showing decrease in bullish momentum.
Technical are neutral to bearish signalling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 75.7 levels. If broken can see further fall to 75.1 and 74.0, If market holds above 76.9 further rally can be seen towards 77.5 and 78.6
Recommendations –MCX Lead June: Sell at 77 Target 75.3 and 74 SL 77.90
MCXARUN
9994500540
26 June 2008 10:03:09
MCX Lead dropped to a low of 77.85 and closed at 76.30 with net loss of 2.03% from previous closing. Intra day high registered near 78.00
Lead inventories at LME, increased by 1925 MT to 98675 MT.
MCX Lead June -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The prices closed below short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading downwards in positive region, showing decrease in bullish momentum.
Technical are neutral to bearish signalling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 75.7 levels. If broken can see further fall to 75.1 and 74.0, If market holds above 76.9 further rally can be seen towards 77.5 and 78.6
Recommendations –MCX Lead June: Sell at 77 Target 75.3 and 74 SL 77.90
MCXARUN
9994500540
lead intraday
Lead registered weekly low
26 June 2008 10:03:09
MCX Lead dropped to a low of 77.85 and closed at 76.30 with net loss of 2.03% from previous closing. Intra day high registered near 78.00
Lead inventories at LME, increased by 1925 MT to 98675 MT.
MCX Lead June -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The prices closed below short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading downwards in positive region, showing decrease in bullish momentum.
Technical are neutral to bearish signalling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 75.7 levels. If broken can see further fall to 75.1 and 74.0, If market holds above 76.9 further rally can be seen towards 77.5 and 78.6
Recommendations –MCX Lead June: Sell at 77 Target 75.3 and 74 SL 77.90
MCXARUN
9994500540
26 June 2008 10:03:09
MCX Lead dropped to a low of 77.85 and closed at 76.30 with net loss of 2.03% from previous closing. Intra day high registered near 78.00
Lead inventories at LME, increased by 1925 MT to 98675 MT.
MCX Lead June -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The prices closed below short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading downwards in positive region, showing decrease in bullish momentum.
Technical are neutral to bearish signalling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 75.7 levels. If broken can see further fall to 75.1 and 74.0, If market holds above 76.9 further rally can be seen towards 77.5 and 78.6
Recommendations –MCX Lead June: Sell at 77 Target 75.3 and 74 SL 77.90
MCXARUN
9994500540
zinc intraday
Zinc drops following other metals
26 June 2008 10:02:05
MCX Zinc dropped to a low of 79.65 and closed at 79.85 with net loss of 1.19% from previous closing. Intra day high registered near 81.20
Zinc inventories at LME, decreased by 375 MT to 149650 MT.
MCX Zinc June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The prices closed below short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading downwards in positive region, showing decrease in bullish momentum.
Technical are neutral to bearish signalling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 79.3 levels. If broken can see further fall to 78.7 and 77.7 , If market holds above 80.2 further rally can be seen towards 80.8 and 81.8
Recommendations- MCX Zinc June: Sell at 80.20-80.50 Target 79 and 78.4 SL 81.30
MCXARUN
999450050
26 June 2008 10:02:05
MCX Zinc dropped to a low of 79.65 and closed at 79.85 with net loss of 1.19% from previous closing. Intra day high registered near 81.20
Zinc inventories at LME, decreased by 375 MT to 149650 MT.
MCX Zinc June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The prices closed below short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading downwards in positive region, showing decrease in bullish momentum.
Technical are neutral to bearish signalling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 79.3 levels. If broken can see further fall to 78.7 and 77.7 , If market holds above 80.2 further rally can be seen towards 80.8 and 81.8
Recommendations- MCX Zinc June: Sell at 80.20-80.50 Target 79 and 78.4 SL 81.30
MCXARUN
999450050
nickel intraday
Nickel remains weak
26 June 2008 10:01:05
MCX Nickel dropped to a rose to high of 935 trading in tight range for the day, low registered near 924 and closed at 932 with net gain of Rs. 7.5 per Kg.
Nickel inventories at LME, decreased by 78 MT to 46218 MT.
MCX Nickel June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The prices closed below short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading downwards in positive region, showing decrease in bullish momentum.
Technical are neutral to bearish signalling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 926 levels. If broken can see further fall to 919 and 915 , If market holds above 930 further rally can be seen towards 937 and 941
Recommendations: MCX Nickel June: Sell at 935-940 Target 920 and 915 SL 947.50
MCXARUN
9994500540
26 June 2008 10:01:05
MCX Nickel dropped to a rose to high of 935 trading in tight range for the day, low registered near 924 and closed at 932 with net gain of Rs. 7.5 per Kg.
Nickel inventories at LME, decreased by 78 MT to 46218 MT.
MCX Nickel June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The prices closed below short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading downwards in positive region, showing decrease in bullish momentum.
Technical are neutral to bearish signalling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 926 levels. If broken can see further fall to 919 and 915 , If market holds above 930 further rally can be seen towards 937 and 941
Recommendations: MCX Nickel June: Sell at 935-940 Target 920 and 915 SL 947.50
MCXARUN
9994500540
copper intraday
Copper futures finished slightly softer
26 June 2008 10:00:24
Copper futures finished slightly softer Wednesday largely in reaction to weakness in other commodities and perhaps due to a small technical pullback.
The most-active September copper contract fell 1.35 cents to settle at $3.7730 per pound on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Around the time the copper pit closed, August crude oil was down $4.08 to $132.92 a barrel. After starting the day softer, the dollar index was up 0.54 point to 73.295. August gold was down $10.30 to $881.30 an ounce.
Other metals and commodities have come off, the silver and gold are both down, and the energy complex is down as well. Copper is just pulling back in sympathy with that.
The copper market was modestly higher early in the day, with some traders citing tightness as indicated by spreads between cash and three-month prices on the London Metal Exchange. But overall, activity was described as muted ahead of the outcome of a meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee.
Around mid-morning, however, crude oil turned south after the first weekly build was reported in U.S. inventories since early May. Inventories rose by 800,000 barrels when the consensus forecast had been for a 900,000 decline. As oil prices fell, copper and other metals followed.
Gross commented that the U.S. economic data wasn't particularly helpful for copper even though it was slightly above forecasts. May durable-goods orders were unchanged when the consensus forecast had been for a 0.5% decline, and they were 0.9% lower when excluding transportation orders. Also, May new-home sales fell 2.5% to an annual rate of 512,000, when a 3% loss was forecast.
Copper does have some supportive features, including the recent technical posture plus historically low inventories in both Comex and LME warehouses. And the dollar - while it rebounded from its lows Wednesday - overall remains soft.
Inventories of copper stored in London Metal Exchange warehouses fell 525 metric tons Wednesday, leaving them at 122,625. The most recent Comex inventory data, released late Tuesday afternoon, were steady at 11,040 short tons.
MCX Copper June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The prices closed below short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading downwards in positive region, showing decrease in bullish momentum.
Technical are neutral to bearish signalling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 352.32 levels. If broken can see further fall to 348.83 and 345.17, If market holds above 355.98 further rally can be seen towards 359.47 and 363.13
Recommendations-MCX Copper June: Sell at 357.50-358 Target 354 and 352 SL 359.70
MCXARUN
9994500540
26 June 2008 10:00:24
Copper futures finished slightly softer Wednesday largely in reaction to weakness in other commodities and perhaps due to a small technical pullback.
The most-active September copper contract fell 1.35 cents to settle at $3.7730 per pound on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Around the time the copper pit closed, August crude oil was down $4.08 to $132.92 a barrel. After starting the day softer, the dollar index was up 0.54 point to 73.295. August gold was down $10.30 to $881.30 an ounce.
Other metals and commodities have come off, the silver and gold are both down, and the energy complex is down as well. Copper is just pulling back in sympathy with that.
The copper market was modestly higher early in the day, with some traders citing tightness as indicated by spreads between cash and three-month prices on the London Metal Exchange. But overall, activity was described as muted ahead of the outcome of a meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee.
Around mid-morning, however, crude oil turned south after the first weekly build was reported in U.S. inventories since early May. Inventories rose by 800,000 barrels when the consensus forecast had been for a 900,000 decline. As oil prices fell, copper and other metals followed.
Gross commented that the U.S. economic data wasn't particularly helpful for copper even though it was slightly above forecasts. May durable-goods orders were unchanged when the consensus forecast had been for a 0.5% decline, and they were 0.9% lower when excluding transportation orders. Also, May new-home sales fell 2.5% to an annual rate of 512,000, when a 3% loss was forecast.
Copper does have some supportive features, including the recent technical posture plus historically low inventories in both Comex and LME warehouses. And the dollar - while it rebounded from its lows Wednesday - overall remains soft.
Inventories of copper stored in London Metal Exchange warehouses fell 525 metric tons Wednesday, leaving them at 122,625. The most recent Comex inventory data, released late Tuesday afternoon, were steady at 11,040 short tons.
MCX Copper June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The prices closed below short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading downwards in positive region, showing decrease in bullish momentum.
Technical are neutral to bearish signalling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 352.32 levels. If broken can see further fall to 348.83 and 345.17, If market holds above 355.98 further rally can be seen towards 359.47 and 363.13
Recommendations-MCX Copper June: Sell at 357.50-358 Target 354 and 352 SL 359.70
MCXARUN
9994500540
energy intraday
Oil futures sank more than $5 a barrel
26 June 2008 10:05:33
Oil futures sank more than $5 a barrel Wednesday after a government agency reported an unexpected increase in U.S. crude inventories and flagging petroleum demand.
U.S. gasoline purchases fell a ninth straight week as record prices crimped demand, a MasterCard Inc. report showed yesterday. Fuel consumption averaged 20.4 million barrels a day in the four weeks ended June 13, down 1.3 percent from a year earlier, the Energy Department said last week. Commerce Department report showed that U.S. orders for durable goods remained unchanged in May as company’s trimmed investment plans, signaling the economy may keep slowing.
Worries over oil supply stability reemerged Wednesday after Saudi Arabia foiled a large-scale attack on oil fields in Yanbu on the Red Sea and in the Eastern Province involving militant groups in Iraq. Saudi security forces have so far detained 701 suspects, news services reported.
The United Arab Emirates would only increase oil production as part of a decision agreed by all of OPEC, Oil Minister Mohammed al-Hamli said on Wednesday, dashing faint hopes it might follow recent Saudi boosts, The UAE is a member of OPEC, so any production decision should be made in an OPEC meeting," he told reporters on the sidelines of an oil and gas conference in the South Korean capital. OPEC is next scheduled to meet on Sept. 9.
Royal Dutch Shell resumed production at its 200,000 barrel per day oil facility in Nigeria after being attacked by militants last week.
Oil prices will fall to $70 a barrel by 2015 and then rise to $113 a barrel by 2030 as new production begins in countries such as Azerbaijan, Canada, Brazil and Kazakhstan, the U.S. Energy Department said, Prices have risen 98 percent in the past year, reaching a record $139.89 on June 16, partly on concern that world oil production will fail to keep pace with surging demand in countries such as China and India.
Forecasts of moderate temperatures in the U.S. Northeast and Midwest were also sending natural gas prices lower driven downward by profit-taking and revised weather forecasts that didn't portend significant cooling demand in the major gas-consuming regions over the next two weeks.
The National Weather Service was forecasting below-normal temperatures for much of the Northeast and Great Lakes region from June 29 to July 7. Still, the milder weather is unlikely to make a significant dent in the year-over-year storage deficit
MCX Crude Oil July - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Technicals are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 5610 level. if broken can see further fall to 5540 and 5385 If market holds above 5765 further rally can be seen towards 5825 and 5900
Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil July: Sell at 5755 Target 5640 and 5590 Stoploss 5805
MCX Natural gas July - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Technicals are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 543 if broken can see further fall to 535 and 526 If market holds above 552 further rally can be seen towards 560 and 569
Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas July: Sell at 557 Target 552 and 545 Stop loss at 561
MCXARUN
9994500540
26 June 2008 10:05:33
Oil futures sank more than $5 a barrel Wednesday after a government agency reported an unexpected increase in U.S. crude inventories and flagging petroleum demand.
U.S. gasoline purchases fell a ninth straight week as record prices crimped demand, a MasterCard Inc. report showed yesterday. Fuel consumption averaged 20.4 million barrels a day in the four weeks ended June 13, down 1.3 percent from a year earlier, the Energy Department said last week. Commerce Department report showed that U.S. orders for durable goods remained unchanged in May as company’s trimmed investment plans, signaling the economy may keep slowing.
Worries over oil supply stability reemerged Wednesday after Saudi Arabia foiled a large-scale attack on oil fields in Yanbu on the Red Sea and in the Eastern Province involving militant groups in Iraq. Saudi security forces have so far detained 701 suspects, news services reported.
The United Arab Emirates would only increase oil production as part of a decision agreed by all of OPEC, Oil Minister Mohammed al-Hamli said on Wednesday, dashing faint hopes it might follow recent Saudi boosts, The UAE is a member of OPEC, so any production decision should be made in an OPEC meeting," he told reporters on the sidelines of an oil and gas conference in the South Korean capital. OPEC is next scheduled to meet on Sept. 9.
Royal Dutch Shell resumed production at its 200,000 barrel per day oil facility in Nigeria after being attacked by militants last week.
Oil prices will fall to $70 a barrel by 2015 and then rise to $113 a barrel by 2030 as new production begins in countries such as Azerbaijan, Canada, Brazil and Kazakhstan, the U.S. Energy Department said, Prices have risen 98 percent in the past year, reaching a record $139.89 on June 16, partly on concern that world oil production will fail to keep pace with surging demand in countries such as China and India.
Forecasts of moderate temperatures in the U.S. Northeast and Midwest were also sending natural gas prices lower driven downward by profit-taking and revised weather forecasts that didn't portend significant cooling demand in the major gas-consuming regions over the next two weeks.
The National Weather Service was forecasting below-normal temperatures for much of the Northeast and Great Lakes region from June 29 to July 7. Still, the milder weather is unlikely to make a significant dent in the year-over-year storage deficit
MCX Crude Oil July - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Technicals are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 5610 level. if broken can see further fall to 5540 and 5385 If market holds above 5765 further rally can be seen towards 5825 and 5900
Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil July: Sell at 5755 Target 5640 and 5590 Stoploss 5805
MCX Natural gas July - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Technicals are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 543 if broken can see further fall to 535 and 526 If market holds above 552 further rally can be seen towards 560 and 569
Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas July: Sell at 557 Target 552 and 545 Stop loss at 561
MCXARUN
9994500540
bullion intraday
Gold Decline on U.S. Inflation outlook
26 June 2008 10:04:30
Gold Decline on U.S. Inflation outlook and as a decline in energy costs reduced demand for the precious metal as a hedge against inflation. Crude-oil futures declined for the first time in four sessions after jumping to a record last week and doubling in the past year.
India spot gold closed marginally lower on Wednesday on weak global cues, a stronger rupee and lack of buying support.
Gold, which is often used as a hedge against inflation, may be pressured if the market boosts expectations that the Fed intends to contain inflation by lifting interest rates later this year, which would boost the dollar.
A firmer U.S. currency pressures the price of dollar-denominated assets, such as crude oil and gold, as it makes them more expensive for holders of other currencies. The dollar remained steady against major counterparts Wednesday, after a report showed orders for durable goods were unchanged in May, beating expectations for another decline.
Strong demand for platinum and palladium in the auto industry likely will help shrink supply surpluses for the metals this year, sending prices even higher, Platinum prices climbed to an all-time high of more than $2,300 in March, and palladium prices climbed to a multi-year high of $600 during the first quarter of this year, according to CPM Group's 2008 Platinum Group Metals Yearbook.
Gold held in London-listed exchange-traded funds managed by ETF Securities Ltd. rose to a record. Gold held by the Jersey, Channel Islands-based Company advanced 1 percent to 1.263 million ounces.
Turkey gold imports normalized in May, as the gold price receded, the lira recovered and demand - both domestic and export – picked up, according to the World Gold Council Wednesday. Gold imports skyrocketed almost 20-fold to 19.4 metric tons in May, from 1.03 tons in April and 675 kilograms in March, Istanbul Gold Exchange said this week.
U.S.Economy:
The Federal Reserve concludes its two-day meeting this afternoon and is expected to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 2.0%. Traders will be watching the comments for signs of future bias in monetary policy.
The U.S. Census Bureau said that new home sales were at an annual rate of 512,000 units in May, down 2.5% from April's pace and as expected. So far in 2008, new home sales are down 37% from a year ago. September lumber is steady.
The U.S. Commerce Department said that durable goods orders were unchanged in May, as expected. Excluding transportation, orders were down .9%, also as expected.
Currencies update:
Eurostat said yesterday that industrial new orders in the Euro area 15 were up 2.5% in April and up 11.8% from a year ago. Based on comments to the European Union, analysts are saying that it is almost certain that European Central Bank President Trichet will increase the interest rate on July 3rd when it next meets.
The Reserve Bank of India increased its interest rate from 8.00% to 8.50% in an effort to restrain inflation. Consumer prices were up 11% from a year ago in the latest report, the biggest annual gain in 13 years.
MCX Gold June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Technicals are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 12132 levels. if broken can see further fall to 12034 and 11918 If market holds above 12278 further rally can be seen towards 12346 and 12462
Recommendations–MCX Gold Aug: Sell at 12340 Target 12240 and 12130 Stoploss at 12380
MCX Silver July - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Technicals are neutral to bearish signalling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 23271 levels. if broken can see further fall to 23131 and 22913 If market holds above 23499 further rally can be seen towards 23629 and 23847
Recommendations-MCX Silver July: sell at 23620 Target 23470 and 23230 stoploss at 23755
MCXARUN
9994500540
26 June 2008 10:04:30
Gold Decline on U.S. Inflation outlook and as a decline in energy costs reduced demand for the precious metal as a hedge against inflation. Crude-oil futures declined for the first time in four sessions after jumping to a record last week and doubling in the past year.
India spot gold closed marginally lower on Wednesday on weak global cues, a stronger rupee and lack of buying support.
Gold, which is often used as a hedge against inflation, may be pressured if the market boosts expectations that the Fed intends to contain inflation by lifting interest rates later this year, which would boost the dollar.
A firmer U.S. currency pressures the price of dollar-denominated assets, such as crude oil and gold, as it makes them more expensive for holders of other currencies. The dollar remained steady against major counterparts Wednesday, after a report showed orders for durable goods were unchanged in May, beating expectations for another decline.
Strong demand for platinum and palladium in the auto industry likely will help shrink supply surpluses for the metals this year, sending prices even higher, Platinum prices climbed to an all-time high of more than $2,300 in March, and palladium prices climbed to a multi-year high of $600 during the first quarter of this year, according to CPM Group's 2008 Platinum Group Metals Yearbook.
Gold held in London-listed exchange-traded funds managed by ETF Securities Ltd. rose to a record. Gold held by the Jersey, Channel Islands-based Company advanced 1 percent to 1.263 million ounces.
Turkey gold imports normalized in May, as the gold price receded, the lira recovered and demand - both domestic and export – picked up, according to the World Gold Council Wednesday. Gold imports skyrocketed almost 20-fold to 19.4 metric tons in May, from 1.03 tons in April and 675 kilograms in March, Istanbul Gold Exchange said this week.
U.S.Economy:
The Federal Reserve concludes its two-day meeting this afternoon and is expected to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 2.0%. Traders will be watching the comments for signs of future bias in monetary policy.
The U.S. Census Bureau said that new home sales were at an annual rate of 512,000 units in May, down 2.5% from April's pace and as expected. So far in 2008, new home sales are down 37% from a year ago. September lumber is steady.
The U.S. Commerce Department said that durable goods orders were unchanged in May, as expected. Excluding transportation, orders were down .9%, also as expected.
Currencies update:
Eurostat said yesterday that industrial new orders in the Euro area 15 were up 2.5% in April and up 11.8% from a year ago. Based on comments to the European Union, analysts are saying that it is almost certain that European Central Bank President Trichet will increase the interest rate on July 3rd when it next meets.
The Reserve Bank of India increased its interest rate from 8.00% to 8.50% in an effort to restrain inflation. Consumer prices were up 11% from a year ago in the latest report, the biggest annual gain in 13 years.
MCX Gold June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Technicals are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 12132 levels. if broken can see further fall to 12034 and 11918 If market holds above 12278 further rally can be seen towards 12346 and 12462
Recommendations–MCX Gold Aug: Sell at 12340 Target 12240 and 12130 Stoploss at 12380
MCX Silver July - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Technicals are neutral to bearish signalling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 23271 levels. if broken can see further fall to 23131 and 22913 If market holds above 23499 further rally can be seen towards 23629 and 23847
Recommendations-MCX Silver July: sell at 23620 Target 23470 and 23230 stoploss at 23755
MCXARUN
9994500540
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
Interest rate differentials will result in a weaker US dollar in the short term after the Fed meeting yesterday. “Although downside risks to growth remain, they appear to have diminished somewhat, and the upside risks to inflation and inflation expectations have increased,'' the Federal Open Market Committee said in a statement. The Fed has adopted the middle of the road approach. If the US economy falters before the August meeting, then the Fed may not interest rates. On the other hand if the US economy shows strength before the next Fed meeting, they could start to speak on aggressive interest rate hikes. The European central bank chief said that “Upside risks to price stability over the medium term have intensified further over the past few months, in a context of very vigorous money and credit growth”. The ECB will raise rates in July and will focus on inflation in the third quarter. This should give the euro an edge against the US dollar in the third quarter. But whether the euro will edge past 1.60 against the US dollar, I have my doubts.
The fed meeting is over and traders and investors will start preparing for the third quarter and US Independence Day on 4th July. Base metals traders will be preparing for the expected increase in Chinese demand before the Olympics. Aluminium has scope for more gains. It will be volatile over the coming weeks. Fundamentals in Aluminium point to a sustained rise in prices in the medium term to long term. Nickel, for the traders, it is a case of once bitten twice shy as it fails to rise. The best way to trade in the third quarter is to ignore the news and trade in the technicals.
If the US dollar falls then all metals and energies will gain. Technically gold and silver are in a short term neutral zone and a medium term bullish zone. Gold is bullish over $859 and $844 in the medium term. Silver is bullish over $1600 in the medium term. If gold and silver fall/close below these levels then there will be a technical break down which can result in a 5% to 10% slide. This is the technical picture. Till the 4th July gold and silver will be torn between short term and medium term technicals. Trading strategy is to remain on the sidelines and buy on sharp dips but keep on booking partial profits.
PLATINUM OCTOBER -- INTRA DAY PIVOT $2055.0
A mild slowdown in demand has resulted in buyers shying away. This can result in a fall to $2032 & $2004.
MCX CARBON CREDIT --NOVEMBER (price in Indian Rupees)
Failure of MCX Carbon credit to break 1444 will result in a fall to 1390 and 1360 in the short term
MCXARUN
9994500540
The fed meeting is over and traders and investors will start preparing for the third quarter and US Independence Day on 4th July. Base metals traders will be preparing for the expected increase in Chinese demand before the Olympics. Aluminium has scope for more gains. It will be volatile over the coming weeks. Fundamentals in Aluminium point to a sustained rise in prices in the medium term to long term. Nickel, for the traders, it is a case of once bitten twice shy as it fails to rise. The best way to trade in the third quarter is to ignore the news and trade in the technicals.
If the US dollar falls then all metals and energies will gain. Technically gold and silver are in a short term neutral zone and a medium term bullish zone. Gold is bullish over $859 and $844 in the medium term. Silver is bullish over $1600 in the medium term. If gold and silver fall/close below these levels then there will be a technical break down which can result in a 5% to 10% slide. This is the technical picture. Till the 4th July gold and silver will be torn between short term and medium term technicals. Trading strategy is to remain on the sidelines and buy on sharp dips but keep on booking partial profits.
PLATINUM OCTOBER -- INTRA DAY PIVOT $2055.0
A mild slowdown in demand has resulted in buyers shying away. This can result in a fall to $2032 & $2004.
MCX CARBON CREDIT --NOVEMBER (price in Indian Rupees)
Failure of MCX Carbon credit to break 1444 will result in a fall to 1390 and 1360 in the short term
MCXARUN
9994500540
Wednesday, June 25, 2008
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
Consumer confidence in US, European and other parts of the world is falling. What does this signify for the US dollar? Unless energy prices fall the US dollar will be volatile against the major currencies. Central banks are being forced to raise interest rates to tackle inflation. Consumers are spending more on essentials and less on other things. Lay off or its expectation is adding to the woes of the consumer. Consumer pessimism is bound to stay afloat. In the end it will all boil down to interest rates differential apart from growth outlook. We expect eurozone growth to fall in time and that the European central bank may not raise interest rates after July. The US dollar will make and slow and steady gains as we near US presidential elections.
The current investment market is a difficult one not just for the fund managers but also for the investors. Since 2003 retail investors have made quick bucks in stock markets and their capital was intact. One of my friends had married in the month of January. He had invested nearly all his savings after his marriage into the Indian stock markets. At present his mark to market (MTM) loss is nearly fifty percent. He is a worried man and asked me whether he will get his capital back on his delivery based equity investments. India is great for long term investments. The current fall is part and parcel of a long term bull rally which has been accentuated by political risk due to general elections anytime before May next year and the oil shock. In 2009 higher base effect will result in Indian inflation as well as global inflation falling to acceptable levels. A new government will be leading India. There should be interest rate cuts either in the second quarter of 2009 or in the third quarter of 2009 in India which should result in Indian stock markets going berserk once again after June, 2009. One needs to have the patience and remain invested. Had my friend diversified, his investment dilemma would have reduced. Precious metal investing is one of the best forms of diversification.
PLATINUM OCTOBER -- INTRA DAY PIVOT $2055.0
In the short term platinum can fall to $1980 and thereafter target $2100 and $2192 as long as $2038 and $2019 holds
MCX CARBON CREDIT --NOVEMBER (price in Indian Rupees)
Carbon Credit has to hold 1425 to be in bullish zone. Resistance at 1459-1465.
MCXARUN
9994500540
The current investment market is a difficult one not just for the fund managers but also for the investors. Since 2003 retail investors have made quick bucks in stock markets and their capital was intact. One of my friends had married in the month of January. He had invested nearly all his savings after his marriage into the Indian stock markets. At present his mark to market (MTM) loss is nearly fifty percent. He is a worried man and asked me whether he will get his capital back on his delivery based equity investments. India is great for long term investments. The current fall is part and parcel of a long term bull rally which has been accentuated by political risk due to general elections anytime before May next year and the oil shock. In 2009 higher base effect will result in Indian inflation as well as global inflation falling to acceptable levels. A new government will be leading India. There should be interest rate cuts either in the second quarter of 2009 or in the third quarter of 2009 in India which should result in Indian stock markets going berserk once again after June, 2009. One needs to have the patience and remain invested. Had my friend diversified, his investment dilemma would have reduced. Precious metal investing is one of the best forms of diversification.
PLATINUM OCTOBER -- INTRA DAY PIVOT $2055.0
In the short term platinum can fall to $1980 and thereafter target $2100 and $2192 as long as $2038 and $2019 holds
MCX CARBON CREDIT --NOVEMBER (price in Indian Rupees)
Carbon Credit has to hold 1425 to be in bullish zone. Resistance at 1459-1465.
MCXARUN
9994500540
zinc intraday
MCx Zinc trades bearish following LME
25 June 2008 09:43:30
MCX Zinc June dropped to a low of 80.55 and closed at 80.80 with loss of almost 2%. Heavy increase in inventory supported the move most. Intra day high registered near 82.70
Zinc inventories at LME, decreased by 1025 MT to 150025 MT.
MCX Zinc June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The prices closed below short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading downwards in positive region, showing decrease in bullish momentum.
Technical are neutral to bearish signalling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 80.0 levels. If broken can see further fall to 79.2 and 77.9, If market holds above 81.4 further rally can be seen towards 82.2 and 83.5
Recommendations- MCX Zinc June: Sell at 81.20-81.30 Target 80 and 79.60 SL 82.10
MCXARUN
9994500540
25 June 2008 09:43:30
MCX Zinc June dropped to a low of 80.55 and closed at 80.80 with loss of almost 2%. Heavy increase in inventory supported the move most. Intra day high registered near 82.70
Zinc inventories at LME, decreased by 1025 MT to 150025 MT.
MCX Zinc June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The prices closed below short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading downwards in positive region, showing decrease in bullish momentum.
Technical are neutral to bearish signalling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 80.0 levels. If broken can see further fall to 79.2 and 77.9, If market holds above 81.4 further rally can be seen towards 82.2 and 83.5
Recommendations- MCX Zinc June: Sell at 81.20-81.30 Target 80 and 79.60 SL 82.10
MCXARUN
9994500540
lead intraday
MCX Lead drops on heavy stokc at LME
25 June 2008 09:42:42
MCX Lead dropped to a low of 79.75 on heavy increase in inventories at LME. Lead June closed at 77.85 with loss of 2.06%, Intra day high registered near 79.75
Lead inventories at LME, increased by 1100 MT to 96750 MT.
MCX Lead June -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The prices closed below short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading downwards in positive region, showing decrease in bullish momentum.
Technical are neutral to bearish signalling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 77.1 levels. If broken can see further fall to 76.3 and 74.9, If market holds above 78.4 further rally can be seen towards 79.2 and 80.6
Recommendations –MCX Lead June: Sell at 78.10-78.30 Target 77 and 76.40 SL 79.10
MCXARUN
9994500540
25 June 2008 09:42:42
MCX Lead dropped to a low of 79.75 on heavy increase in inventories at LME. Lead June closed at 77.85 with loss of 2.06%, Intra day high registered near 79.75
Lead inventories at LME, increased by 1100 MT to 96750 MT.
MCX Lead June -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The prices closed below short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading downwards in positive region, showing decrease in bullish momentum.
Technical are neutral to bearish signalling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 77.1 levels. If broken can see further fall to 76.3 and 74.9, If market holds above 78.4 further rally can be seen towards 79.2 and 80.6
Recommendations –MCX Lead June: Sell at 78.10-78.30 Target 77 and 76.40 SL 79.10
MCXARUN
9994500540
nickel intraday
MCX Nickel traded negative following international market, registered days low near 922, closed at 924.50 with loss of approx 2%. Intra day high registered near 949.Increase in inventory at LME also supported the move.
Nickel inventories at LME, decreased by 438 MT to 46296 MT.
MCX Nickel June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The prices closed below short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading downwards in positive region, showing decrease in bullish momentum.
Technical are neutral to bearish signalling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 915 levels. If broken can see further fall to 905 and 888 , If market holds above 932 further rally can be seen towards 942 and 959
Recommendations: MCX Nickel June: Sell at 930-935 Target 920 and 914 SL 942
MCXARUN
9994500540
Nickel inventories at LME, decreased by 438 MT to 46296 MT.
MCX Nickel June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The prices closed below short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading downwards in positive region, showing decrease in bullish momentum.
Technical are neutral to bearish signalling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 915 levels. If broken can see further fall to 905 and 888 , If market holds above 932 further rally can be seen towards 942 and 959
Recommendations: MCX Nickel June: Sell at 930-935 Target 920 and 914 SL 942
MCXARUN
9994500540
copper intraday
MCX Copper dropped to a low of 356.30 following LME and energy movement, slight increase in stock at Lme also supported the move. Copper June closed near 357 with loss of Rs. 3.05 per kg, intra day high registered near 360.45
Copper futures eased Tuesday in a market concerned about demand due to a slowing economy, with some liquidation occurring after resistance held at the highs from the last five weeks or so.
But most also described the market as subdued as traders await the outcome of a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee that ends after the copper market closes on Wednesday.
A market "increasingly worried" about poor demand from the U.S. spreading to other nations probably led to lower copper prices despite a softer tone in the dollar that often underpins commodities such as copper, he continued.
The Conference Board said the June confidence index fell to 50.4 from 58.1 in May. This comes after weak German business-sentiment and euro-zone manufacturing data on Monday.
The metal came into the session softer even ahead of the U.S. data, with other observers also citing some worries about Chinese demand as well as chart-based selling.
Traders will have several U.S. reports to digest Wednesday while awaiting a post-meeting statement from the Federal Open Market Committee, May durable-goods orders, May new-home sales, weekly energy inventory data, which affects crude oil and sometimes spills over into metals
Inventories of copper stored in London Metal Exchange warehouses rose 25 metric tons Tuesday, leaving them at 123,150. The most recent Comex inventory data, released late Monday afternoon, were steady at 11,040 short tons.
MCX Copper June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The prices closed above short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading upwards in positive region, showing increase in bullish momentum.
Technical have turned neutral to bullish and market is expected to remain positive above 359.5 levels. If sustain above this level can see a rally towards 362.1 and 363.7, If market sustains below 357.9 can see a further fall towards 355.4 and 353.8
Recommendations-MCX Copper June: Sell at 358.50-359 Target 355 and 353 SL 361.20
MCXARUN
9994500540
Copper futures eased Tuesday in a market concerned about demand due to a slowing economy, with some liquidation occurring after resistance held at the highs from the last five weeks or so.
But most also described the market as subdued as traders await the outcome of a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee that ends after the copper market closes on Wednesday.
A market "increasingly worried" about poor demand from the U.S. spreading to other nations probably led to lower copper prices despite a softer tone in the dollar that often underpins commodities such as copper, he continued.
The Conference Board said the June confidence index fell to 50.4 from 58.1 in May. This comes after weak German business-sentiment and euro-zone manufacturing data on Monday.
The metal came into the session softer even ahead of the U.S. data, with other observers also citing some worries about Chinese demand as well as chart-based selling.
Traders will have several U.S. reports to digest Wednesday while awaiting a post-meeting statement from the Federal Open Market Committee, May durable-goods orders, May new-home sales, weekly energy inventory data, which affects crude oil and sometimes spills over into metals
Inventories of copper stored in London Metal Exchange warehouses rose 25 metric tons Tuesday, leaving them at 123,150. The most recent Comex inventory data, released late Monday afternoon, were steady at 11,040 short tons.
MCX Copper June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The prices closed above short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading upwards in positive region, showing increase in bullish momentum.
Technical have turned neutral to bullish and market is expected to remain positive above 359.5 levels. If sustain above this level can see a rally towards 362.1 and 363.7, If market sustains below 357.9 can see a further fall towards 355.4 and 353.8
Recommendations-MCX Copper June: Sell at 358.50-359 Target 355 and 353 SL 361.20
MCXARUN
9994500540
crude intraday
Crude oil rose for a third day as the U.S. dollar dropped, enhancing the appeal of commodities as an inflation hedge, and OPEC's secretary-general said the group won't increase production. OPEC members besides Saudi Arabia have no intention of raising output to bring down near-record prices, Abdullah El- Badri said in Brussels yesterday.
Another support for prices came from new sanctions against Iran approved by European Union nations, imposing additional financial and travel restrictions on a list of Iranian companies and experts including the country's largest bank. The 27-nation bloc stopped short of banning oil and gas exports from Iran, OPEC's second-largest producer, in response to its nuclear program plans.
World Bank President Robert Zoellick said record oil prices would ease if non-OPEC producer nations increase production. You haven't had much expansion of supply, and non-OPEC producers actually have come down a little bit in past years,'' Zoellick told reporters in Cancun, Mexico, at a gathering of North American, Latin American and Caribbean finance ministers.
Nigeria's senior white-collar oil workers' union continued a strike against Chevron Corp.'s local unit for a second day, stopping short of disrupting crude production, a union official said.
Elsewhere in Nigeria, attacks in the past week shut a Chevron pipeline located more than 200 miles southeast of the company's headquarters outside of Lagos as well as the offshore Bonga oil field operated by a Royal Dutch Shell Plc venture. The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta, or MEND, claimed responsibility for the Bonga attack, the militant group declared a cease-fire effective yesterday.
Natural gas futures slipped Tuesday, driven lower by profit-taking amid mixed weather forecasts and no signs of storm activity in the Atlantic. Weather forecasts for the major gas-consuming regions were mixed. Although some forecasters were predicting above-normal temperatures in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic next week, the hotter weather may not be enough to spark significant cooling demand. Meanwhile, the National Hurricane Center was predicting no storm activity in The Atlantic over the next 48 hours.
MCX Crude Oil July - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Technicals have turned neutral to bullish and market is expected to remain positive above 5929 level. If sustain above this level can see a rally towards 5997 and 6050 If market sustains below 5875 can see a further fall towards 5806 and 5753
Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil July: Buy at 5790 Target 5865 and 5920 Stoploss 5742
MCX Natural gas July - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Technicals are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 557 if broken can see further fall to 552 and 547 If market holds above 565 further rally can be seen towards 572 and 581
Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas July: Buy at 554 Target 560 and 567 Stop loss at 549
MCXARUN
9994500540
Another support for prices came from new sanctions against Iran approved by European Union nations, imposing additional financial and travel restrictions on a list of Iranian companies and experts including the country's largest bank. The 27-nation bloc stopped short of banning oil and gas exports from Iran, OPEC's second-largest producer, in response to its nuclear program plans.
World Bank President Robert Zoellick said record oil prices would ease if non-OPEC producer nations increase production. You haven't had much expansion of supply, and non-OPEC producers actually have come down a little bit in past years,'' Zoellick told reporters in Cancun, Mexico, at a gathering of North American, Latin American and Caribbean finance ministers.
Nigeria's senior white-collar oil workers' union continued a strike against Chevron Corp.'s local unit for a second day, stopping short of disrupting crude production, a union official said.
Elsewhere in Nigeria, attacks in the past week shut a Chevron pipeline located more than 200 miles southeast of the company's headquarters outside of Lagos as well as the offshore Bonga oil field operated by a Royal Dutch Shell Plc venture. The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta, or MEND, claimed responsibility for the Bonga attack, the militant group declared a cease-fire effective yesterday.
Natural gas futures slipped Tuesday, driven lower by profit-taking amid mixed weather forecasts and no signs of storm activity in the Atlantic. Weather forecasts for the major gas-consuming regions were mixed. Although some forecasters were predicting above-normal temperatures in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic next week, the hotter weather may not be enough to spark significant cooling demand. Meanwhile, the National Hurricane Center was predicting no storm activity in The Atlantic over the next 48 hours.
MCX Crude Oil July - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Technicals have turned neutral to bullish and market is expected to remain positive above 5929 level. If sustain above this level can see a rally towards 5997 and 6050 If market sustains below 5875 can see a further fall towards 5806 and 5753
Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil July: Buy at 5790 Target 5865 and 5920 Stoploss 5742
MCX Natural gas July - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Technicals are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 557 if broken can see further fall to 552 and 547 If market holds above 565 further rally can be seen towards 572 and 581
Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas July: Buy at 554 Target 560 and 567 Stop loss at 549
MCXARUN
9994500540
bullion intraday
Gold rebounded on speculation the Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise U.S. borrowing costs anytime soon, weakening the dollar and boosting the appeal of the metal as an alternative investment. Silver also gained
The metal has gained 6.7 percent this year as the dollar has lost 6.2 percent against the euro. Oil rose, trading within 2 percent of the record $139.89 a barrel reached June 16 and adding to concern that inflation will accelerate.
Gold held by SPDR Gold Trust rose 12.26 tons, or 2 percent, to 628.21 tons on June 23, according to the SPDR Gold shares. The holding is at the highest since April 22. Jersey-based ETF Securities Ltd. also said its funds linked to gold and platinum have raised in the past week.ETFS Physical Gold added $44 million last week; ETFS Physical Platinum attracted $32 million last week.
Silver prices have tracked gold prices closely and while Barclays Capital expects this to broadly continue, weak fundamentals will expose it to additional downside risk on any dips in the gold Price." In contrast to gold, the largest silver ETF, Barclay’s i-shares, recorded a hefty redemption of 46 tons, down 1% Monday, the second largest daily outflow in a week, Barclays says. Total holdings have fallen to their lowest level in six weeks at 5,972 tons
Gold prices are expected to trade in a range-bound manner over the forthcoming weeks as the key external drivers (dollar, oil) hang in the balance, while mine supply remains constrained, jewelry demand in price-sensitive countries has fallen sharply. In the near term, the focus will be on the FOMC decision today. However, some economic data before then is likely to put some modest downward pressure on the USD and in turn should underpin gold prices
The Euro system’s reserves of gold and gold receivables decreased EUR26 million to EUR209.376 billion in the week ended June 20, the European Central Bank said Tuesday
U.S.Economy:
The S&P/Case-Shiller index of U.S. home prices in 20 cities was down 1.4% in April and down 15.3% from a year ago, roughly as expected. It was also the biggest annual drop since records began in 2000.
The Conference Board's index of consumer confidence fell from 58.1 to 50.4 in June, weaker than expected, The Richmond Federal Reserve's index of manufacturing fell from -3 to -12 in June, also weaker than expected.
The Federal Reserve begins its two-day meeting today and is expected to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 2.0% tomorrow when the meeting concludes.
Currencies update:
India's central bank raised interest rates for the second time this month and asked lenders to set aside more money as reserves to cool inflation running at a 13- year high. The repurchase rate was lifted to 8.5 percent from 8 percent and the cash reserve ratio to 8.75 percent from 8.25 percent
The dollar has gained 1.5 percent against the euro this quarter as traders bet the economic slowdown sparked by the collapse of the sub prime-mortgage market will spread to Europe as the U.S. recovers. For the year, the dollar is down 6.2 percent.
Norway's krone rose to two-week highs against the dollar and euro on speculation the central bank may signal the need for further interest-rate increases, boosting the appeal of the nation's higher-yielding assets. The currency of the world's fifth-largest crude supplier gained as oil, which climbed to a record on June 16, advanced for a third day.
MCX Gold June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Technicals are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 12280 levels. if broken can see further fall to 12209 and 12133 If market holds above 12376 further rally can be seen towards 12429 and 12503
Recommendations–MCX Gold Aug: Sell at 12405 Target 12320 and 12210 Stoploss at 12452
MCX Silver July - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Technicals are neutral to bearish signalling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 23490 levels. if broken can see further fall to 23356 and 23125 If market holds above 23714 further rally can be seen towards 23841 and 24072
Recommendations-MCX Silver July: sell at 23715 Target 23600 and 23420 stoploss at 23870
MCXARUN
9994500540
The metal has gained 6.7 percent this year as the dollar has lost 6.2 percent against the euro. Oil rose, trading within 2 percent of the record $139.89 a barrel reached June 16 and adding to concern that inflation will accelerate.
Gold held by SPDR Gold Trust rose 12.26 tons, or 2 percent, to 628.21 tons on June 23, according to the SPDR Gold shares. The holding is at the highest since April 22. Jersey-based ETF Securities Ltd. also said its funds linked to gold and platinum have raised in the past week.ETFS Physical Gold added $44 million last week; ETFS Physical Platinum attracted $32 million last week.
Silver prices have tracked gold prices closely and while Barclays Capital expects this to broadly continue, weak fundamentals will expose it to additional downside risk on any dips in the gold Price." In contrast to gold, the largest silver ETF, Barclay’s i-shares, recorded a hefty redemption of 46 tons, down 1% Monday, the second largest daily outflow in a week, Barclays says. Total holdings have fallen to their lowest level in six weeks at 5,972 tons
Gold prices are expected to trade in a range-bound manner over the forthcoming weeks as the key external drivers (dollar, oil) hang in the balance, while mine supply remains constrained, jewelry demand in price-sensitive countries has fallen sharply. In the near term, the focus will be on the FOMC decision today. However, some economic data before then is likely to put some modest downward pressure on the USD and in turn should underpin gold prices
The Euro system’s reserves of gold and gold receivables decreased EUR26 million to EUR209.376 billion in the week ended June 20, the European Central Bank said Tuesday
U.S.Economy:
The S&P/Case-Shiller index of U.S. home prices in 20 cities was down 1.4% in April and down 15.3% from a year ago, roughly as expected. It was also the biggest annual drop since records began in 2000.
The Conference Board's index of consumer confidence fell from 58.1 to 50.4 in June, weaker than expected, The Richmond Federal Reserve's index of manufacturing fell from -3 to -12 in June, also weaker than expected.
The Federal Reserve begins its two-day meeting today and is expected to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 2.0% tomorrow when the meeting concludes.
Currencies update:
India's central bank raised interest rates for the second time this month and asked lenders to set aside more money as reserves to cool inflation running at a 13- year high. The repurchase rate was lifted to 8.5 percent from 8 percent and the cash reserve ratio to 8.75 percent from 8.25 percent
The dollar has gained 1.5 percent against the euro this quarter as traders bet the economic slowdown sparked by the collapse of the sub prime-mortgage market will spread to Europe as the U.S. recovers. For the year, the dollar is down 6.2 percent.
Norway's krone rose to two-week highs against the dollar and euro on speculation the central bank may signal the need for further interest-rate increases, boosting the appeal of the nation's higher-yielding assets. The currency of the world's fifth-largest crude supplier gained as oil, which climbed to a record on June 16, advanced for a third day.
MCX Gold June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Technicals are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 12280 levels. if broken can see further fall to 12209 and 12133 If market holds above 12376 further rally can be seen towards 12429 and 12503
Recommendations–MCX Gold Aug: Sell at 12405 Target 12320 and 12210 Stoploss at 12452
MCX Silver July - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Technicals are neutral to bearish signalling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 23490 levels. if broken can see further fall to 23356 and 23125 If market holds above 23714 further rally can be seen towards 23841 and 24072
Recommendations-MCX Silver July: sell at 23715 Target 23600 and 23420 stoploss at 23870
MCXARUN
9994500540
Tuesday, June 24, 2008
Zinc intraday
MCX Zinc June registered days high near 84.30 and closed with minor loss at 82.30, Intra day low registered near 81.55
LME zinc may not get significant upside in next 12 months, although prices will likely be volatile because of large short position in LME zinc futures.
Global concentrate supply not tight enough to restrain zinc output for next 6-12 months, which should lead to a growing surplus in zinc market, possibly push prices to test $1,700-$1,800/ton.
Prices could rally short-term if low prices forces mine closures, but producers would likely hedge into any price strength. However, says this period of low prices would likely restrain growth in Chinese zinc mine output in 2009, significantly tightening concentrate market, while major mines expected to end their lives or mine lower ore grades in 2010-2011.
Zinc price falls during the next 12 months, the more it could bring forward the next cyclical boom phase in the market.
Zinc inventories at LME, increased by -750 MT to 151050 MT.
MCX Zinc June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The prices closed below short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading downwards in positive region, showing decrease in bullish momentum.
Technical are neutral to bearish signalling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 81.1 levels. If broken can see further fall to 80.0 and 78.4, If market holds above 82.7 further rally can be seen towards 83.9 and 85.5
Recommendations- MCX Zinc June: Sell at 82.50-83.00 Target 81.60 and 80.60 SL 83.90
MCXARUN
9994500540
LME zinc may not get significant upside in next 12 months, although prices will likely be volatile because of large short position in LME zinc futures.
Global concentrate supply not tight enough to restrain zinc output for next 6-12 months, which should lead to a growing surplus in zinc market, possibly push prices to test $1,700-$1,800/ton.
Prices could rally short-term if low prices forces mine closures, but producers would likely hedge into any price strength. However, says this period of low prices would likely restrain growth in Chinese zinc mine output in 2009, significantly tightening concentrate market, while major mines expected to end their lives or mine lower ore grades in 2010-2011.
Zinc price falls during the next 12 months, the more it could bring forward the next cyclical boom phase in the market.
Zinc inventories at LME, increased by -750 MT to 151050 MT.
MCX Zinc June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The prices closed below short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading downwards in positive region, showing decrease in bullish momentum.
Technical are neutral to bearish signalling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 81.1 levels. If broken can see further fall to 80.0 and 78.4, If market holds above 82.7 further rally can be seen towards 83.9 and 85.5
Recommendations- MCX Zinc June: Sell at 82.50-83.00 Target 81.60 and 80.60 SL 83.90
MCXARUN
9994500540
lead intraday
MCX Lead traded volatile and registered days high near 81.10, closed at 79.45 with minor loss . Intra day low registered near 78.15
Lead inventories at LME, increased by -725 MT to 95650 MT.
MCX Lead June -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The prices closed below short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading downwards in positive region, showing decrease in bullish momentum.
Technical are neutral to bearish signalling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 78.0 levels. If broken can see further fall to 76.6 and 75.1, If market holds above 79.6 further rally can be seen towards 81.0 and 82.5
Recommendations –MCX Lead June: Sell at 80.20-80.50 Target 79 and 78 SL 81.65
MCXARUN
9994500540
Lead inventories at LME, increased by -725 MT to 95650 MT.
MCX Lead June -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The prices closed below short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading downwards in positive region, showing decrease in bullish momentum.
Technical are neutral to bearish signalling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 78.0 levels. If broken can see further fall to 76.6 and 75.1, If market holds above 79.6 further rally can be seen towards 81.0 and 82.5
Recommendations –MCX Lead June: Sell at 80.20-80.50 Target 79 and 78 SL 81.65
MCXARUN
9994500540
Nickel intraday
MCX Nickel mostly trades bearish and registered days low at 933, closed at 941.50 with loss of 3.29% from Saturday closing. Intra day high registered near 975.
A large LME nickel market short might be just about to cover and even add length to its portfolio, stirrings of improved demand from the stainless sector, with consumers on the oil side boosting pipe needs ahead of the winter drilling season.
Government's Australian Bureau of Agricultural & Resource Economics forecasts metal will average $27,000/ton in 2008, down 27% on-year, also down from average $28,770/ton in first 4 months of this year. Rising nickel production at new mines, scheduled to commence from mid-2008 is expected to increase nickel supply in 2009," hence forecast price to decline to average $22,000 in 2009.
Australian exports to rise 11% next fiscal year to 236,000 tons from actual 212,000 tons this fiscal year ending June 30, in part reflecting forecast 31% on-year increase in nickel mine production to 256,000 tons next fiscal year.
Nickel inventories at LME, decreased by 126 MT to 46734 MT.
MCX Nickel June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The prices closed below short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading downwards in positive region, showing decrease in bullish momentum.
Technical are neutral to bearish signalling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 925 levels. If broken can see further fall to 908 and 883, If market holds above 950 further rally can be seen towards 967 and 992
Recommendations: MCX Nickel June: Sell at 955 Target 922 and 910 SL 965
MCXARUN
9994500540
A large LME nickel market short might be just about to cover and even add length to its portfolio, stirrings of improved demand from the stainless sector, with consumers on the oil side boosting pipe needs ahead of the winter drilling season.
Government's Australian Bureau of Agricultural & Resource Economics forecasts metal will average $27,000/ton in 2008, down 27% on-year, also down from average $28,770/ton in first 4 months of this year. Rising nickel production at new mines, scheduled to commence from mid-2008 is expected to increase nickel supply in 2009," hence forecast price to decline to average $22,000 in 2009.
Australian exports to rise 11% next fiscal year to 236,000 tons from actual 212,000 tons this fiscal year ending June 30, in part reflecting forecast 31% on-year increase in nickel mine production to 256,000 tons next fiscal year.
Nickel inventories at LME, decreased by 126 MT to 46734 MT.
MCX Nickel June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The prices closed below short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading downwards in positive region, showing decrease in bullish momentum.
Technical are neutral to bearish signalling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 925 levels. If broken can see further fall to 908 and 883, If market holds above 950 further rally can be seen towards 967 and 992
Recommendations: MCX Nickel June: Sell at 955 Target 922 and 910 SL 965
MCXARUN
9994500540
copper intraday
MCX Copper gives back its earlier gains and closed at 360.05 with loss of Rs. 2.25 per kg from Saturdays closing, low registered near 356.80. Intra day high was at 364.50
A stronger dollar and weaker precious metals pressured copper futures mildly Monday as opinions are mixed on support for the market from Chinese buyers.
The rise in the dollar and the slide in precious metals spurred long liquidation in copper. Some pressure may also be coming to the market from the overall weakness of the U.S. economy and the belief that the Chinese may be stocked up with the copper they need for now, at least until after the Olympics.
The dollar's strength was constraining the upside potential for copper coming from Chinese demand.
Copper futures were holding at relatively strong levels despite Chinese import data that is pressuring the market. Copper prices remain strong despite coming under pressure from the Chinese trade data which confirmed preliminary data showing refined imports falling 26.4% m/m, Copper scrap imports also came in lower at 496Kt, the lowest in two months, as did copper concentrates, which at 416kt (gross weight), were 17.6% below April levels.
Inventories of copper stored in London Metal Exchange warehouses fell 875 metric tons Monday, leaving them at 123,125. The most recent Comex inventory data, released late Friday afternoon, were unchanged at 11,040 short tons.
MCX Copper June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The prices closed above short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading upwards in positive region, showing increase in bullish momentum.
Technical are still neutral to bullish and market is expected to remain positive above 364.1 levels. If sustain above this level can see a rally towards 368.2 and 371.8, If market sustains below 360.5 can see a further fall towards 356.4 and 352.8
Recommendations-MCX Copper June: Buy at 358-357.50 target 365 and 371 SL 355.40
MCXARUN
9994500540
A stronger dollar and weaker precious metals pressured copper futures mildly Monday as opinions are mixed on support for the market from Chinese buyers.
The rise in the dollar and the slide in precious metals spurred long liquidation in copper. Some pressure may also be coming to the market from the overall weakness of the U.S. economy and the belief that the Chinese may be stocked up with the copper they need for now, at least until after the Olympics.
The dollar's strength was constraining the upside potential for copper coming from Chinese demand.
Copper futures were holding at relatively strong levels despite Chinese import data that is pressuring the market. Copper prices remain strong despite coming under pressure from the Chinese trade data which confirmed preliminary data showing refined imports falling 26.4% m/m, Copper scrap imports also came in lower at 496Kt, the lowest in two months, as did copper concentrates, which at 416kt (gross weight), were 17.6% below April levels.
Inventories of copper stored in London Metal Exchange warehouses fell 875 metric tons Monday, leaving them at 123,125. The most recent Comex inventory data, released late Friday afternoon, were unchanged at 11,040 short tons.
MCX Copper June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The prices closed above short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading upwards in positive region, showing increase in bullish momentum.
Technical are still neutral to bullish and market is expected to remain positive above 364.1 levels. If sustain above this level can see a rally towards 368.2 and 371.8, If market sustains below 360.5 can see a further fall towards 356.4 and 352.8
Recommendations-MCX Copper June: Buy at 358-357.50 target 365 and 371 SL 355.40
MCXARUN
9994500540
Natural Gas price is zooming
Natural gas prices are up about 75% from the beginning of this year. With all the fuss over crude oil and the cost of food, it’s easy to overlook what a dramatic move this is. But natural gas could have even further to go.
Energy analyst Subash Chandra of Jefferies & Co. tells The Wall Street Journal, “We could see $15 [natural] gas this summer. All the elements are there.”
Two things weighing heavily on natgas traders’ minds right now are hurricanes and heat waves. The first factor (threat of hurricane) could cut into supply by damaging production in the Gulf. The second factor, a rising heat wave, causes demand to go through the roof as sweating Americans turn up their air conditioners.
Natural gas is one of those invisible threads woven throughout our lives. We all make use of it much more than we realize, and the costs hit us in many unrealized ways, too.
The good news is, those costs can be offset by profit opportunities for savvy investors in the natural gas space.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Energy analyst Subash Chandra of Jefferies & Co. tells The Wall Street Journal, “We could see $15 [natural] gas this summer. All the elements are there.”
Two things weighing heavily on natgas traders’ minds right now are hurricanes and heat waves. The first factor (threat of hurricane) could cut into supply by damaging production in the Gulf. The second factor, a rising heat wave, causes demand to go through the roof as sweating Americans turn up their air conditioners.
Natural gas is one of those invisible threads woven throughout our lives. We all make use of it much more than we realize, and the costs hit us in many unrealized ways, too.
The good news is, those costs can be offset by profit opportunities for savvy investors in the natural gas space.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Will Oil fall below $ 100?
Saudi Arabia said yesterday that it increased oil sales by 300,000 barrels per day in May and would increase it another 200,000 barrels per day in July. The announcement was in line with expectations. August crude oil closed up $1.38 at $136.74.
Nigeria continues to have problems keeping its oil production safe. Late last week, a 120,000 barrel per day Chevron plant was closed after its pipelines were attacked. Earlier last week, a 200,000 barrel per day Shell facility was closed.
Barron's ran an article over the weekend saying that crude oil could fall to $100 per barrel by the end of the year. What would it take for that to happen? Saudi Arabia's announced production increase, slower world demand, and firmer U.S. interest rates to stop the flow of investors bailing out of the dollar.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Nigeria continues to have problems keeping its oil production safe. Late last week, a 120,000 barrel per day Chevron plant was closed after its pipelines were attacked. Earlier last week, a 200,000 barrel per day Shell facility was closed.
Barron's ran an article over the weekend saying that crude oil could fall to $100 per barrel by the end of the year. What would it take for that to happen? Saudi Arabia's announced production increase, slower world demand, and firmer U.S. interest rates to stop the flow of investors bailing out of the dollar.
MCXARUN
9994500540
energy intraday
Oil prices rose Monday on disappointment over Saudi Arabia's modest production increase and concerns that output from Nigeria will decline. Retail gas prices, meanwhile, inched lower overnight, but appear unlikely to change much as long as oil prices remain stuck in their recent trading range.
Saudi Arabia said Sunday at a meeting of oil producing and consuming nations that it would turn out more crude oil this year if the market needs it. The kingdom said it would add 200,000 barrels per day in July to a 300,000 barrel per day production increase it first announced in May, raising total daily output to 9.7 million barrels.
Nigeria continues to have problems keeping its oil production safe. Late last week, a 120,000 barrel per day Chevron plant was closed after its pipelines were attacked. Earlier last week, a 200,000 barrel per day Shell facility was closed.
Barron's ran an article over the weekend saying that crude oil could fall to $100 per barrel by the end of the year. What would it take for that to happen? Saudi Arabia's announced production increase, slower world demand, and firmer U.S. interest rates to stop the flow of investors bailing on the dollar.
Speculators became the largest players in oil futures markets, nearly doubling their share in the past eight years as prices rose to records, in a ``radical shift'' for the market, according to a congressional committee. In January 2000, speculators controlled 37 percent of contracts to buy West Texas Intermediate crude oil on the NYMEX, with the rest held by physical hedgers, including refiners and airlines that need to hedge against delivered fuel costs. By this April, speculators controlled 71 percent of the contracts, according to data provided to the House Energy and Commerce Committee by the CFTC.
Colombia's main oil pipeline was closed after guerrilla attack on Monday, after a dynamite attack on Saturday by the Farc guerrilla movement, the military authorities said. Some 100,000 barrels per day of crude oil is transported along the 780 kilometer pipeline, which is located in the Tibu area, 650 km northeast of Bogota. The explosive was detonated by remote control by a group of rebels of the Farc (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia).
Natural gas in New York advanced amid speculation a forecast for warmer weather would increase demand. High temperatures, especially in the Northeast and Midwest, the regions of the biggest gas consumption, typically spur more electricity generation from gas-fired power plants to run air conditioners.
MCX Crude Oil July - Technical Outlook:
Tech The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is Negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Technicals have turned neutral to bullish and market is expected to remain positive above 5975 level. If sustain above this level can see a rally towards 6050 and 6160 If market sustains below 5865 can see a further fall towards 5790 and 5680
Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil July: Buy at 5832 Target 5895 and 5970 Stoploss 5780
MCX Natural gas July - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Technicals have turned neutral to bullish and market is expected to remain positive above 576 if sustain above this level can see a rally towards 579 and 586 If market sustains below 569 can see a further fall towards 566 and 559
Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas July: Buy at 565 Target 569 and 574 Stop loss at 561
MCXARUN
9994500540
Saudi Arabia said Sunday at a meeting of oil producing and consuming nations that it would turn out more crude oil this year if the market needs it. The kingdom said it would add 200,000 barrels per day in July to a 300,000 barrel per day production increase it first announced in May, raising total daily output to 9.7 million barrels.
Nigeria continues to have problems keeping its oil production safe. Late last week, a 120,000 barrel per day Chevron plant was closed after its pipelines were attacked. Earlier last week, a 200,000 barrel per day Shell facility was closed.
Barron's ran an article over the weekend saying that crude oil could fall to $100 per barrel by the end of the year. What would it take for that to happen? Saudi Arabia's announced production increase, slower world demand, and firmer U.S. interest rates to stop the flow of investors bailing on the dollar.
Speculators became the largest players in oil futures markets, nearly doubling their share in the past eight years as prices rose to records, in a ``radical shift'' for the market, according to a congressional committee. In January 2000, speculators controlled 37 percent of contracts to buy West Texas Intermediate crude oil on the NYMEX, with the rest held by physical hedgers, including refiners and airlines that need to hedge against delivered fuel costs. By this April, speculators controlled 71 percent of the contracts, according to data provided to the House Energy and Commerce Committee by the CFTC.
Colombia's main oil pipeline was closed after guerrilla attack on Monday, after a dynamite attack on Saturday by the Farc guerrilla movement, the military authorities said. Some 100,000 barrels per day of crude oil is transported along the 780 kilometer pipeline, which is located in the Tibu area, 650 km northeast of Bogota. The explosive was detonated by remote control by a group of rebels of the Farc (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia).
Natural gas in New York advanced amid speculation a forecast for warmer weather would increase demand. High temperatures, especially in the Northeast and Midwest, the regions of the biggest gas consumption, typically spur more electricity generation from gas-fired power plants to run air conditioners.
MCX Crude Oil July - Technical Outlook:
Tech The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is Negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Technicals have turned neutral to bullish and market is expected to remain positive above 5975 level. If sustain above this level can see a rally towards 6050 and 6160 If market sustains below 5865 can see a further fall towards 5790 and 5680
Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil July: Buy at 5832 Target 5895 and 5970 Stoploss 5780
MCX Natural gas July - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Technicals have turned neutral to bullish and market is expected to remain positive above 576 if sustain above this level can see a rally towards 579 and 586 If market sustains below 569 can see a further fall towards 566 and 559
Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas July: Buy at 565 Target 569 and 574 Stop loss at 561
MCXARUN
9994500540
bullion intraday
Gold fell in New York by the most in almost two weeks as the dollar strengthened against the euro, reducing the appeal of the precious metal as an alternative investment. Silver also fell
Spot gold tumbled through $900 a troy ounce, which sparked a wave of technical selling Monday that carried the metal down to $876/oz and its falls, which were attributed to large liquidations by CTA accounts in commodities, in particular gold. This liquidation is perhaps related to quarter-end pressures in order to raise cash for client redemption payments.
Gold tends to move in the opposite direction to the dollar as it seen as an alternative investment to the U.S. currency and a hedge against rising inflation. Oil prices have also eased as the dollar has firmed, reducing gold's role as a hedge against rising fuel costs.
The U.S dollar is gaining against the euro as it is still unclear if the Feds will hike or steady rates and on speculation that consumer confidence released today will show a drop, consequently that will negatively affect consumer's confidence. Therefore, at the moment, as the green currency remains weak, investors are still guided straight to the shiny metal.
Australian gold production has fallen by a greater-than-expected 7 percent in the last year its world's third-largest producer of gold behind China and South Africa. Its output is estimated at 231 tones in the year to June 30, against 249 tones the year before.
Platinum assets in Zuercher Kantonal bank's exchange-traded fund climbed 18 percent to a record last week. The 62,353.15 ounces in the ZKB Platinum ETF as of June 20 exceeded the record 54,498.72 ounces of Dec. 29, according to figures e-mailed today from Zurich-based ZKB. Platinum has trailed the company's silver, gold and palladium funds that climbed to all-time highs last month. The platinum assets were up 18 percent from 52,762.58 ounces a week earlier.
U.S.Economy:
The Chicago Federal Reserve's index of national activity improved from -1.23 to -.96 in May, still a sign of contraction. 63 of the 85 indicators used were said to have recorded negative changes.
The Federal Reserve meets today and Wednesday and is expected to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 2.0%. Traders will be watching for Wednesday afternoon's statement for any clues to future direction.
Currencies update:
The IFO Institute's index of business confidence in Germany fell from 103.5 to 101.3 in June, weaker than expected.
European data yesterday showed that the economic slowdown is accelerating just as the European Central Bank is planning to raise interest rates, leading some traders to bet the ECB will be forced to hold rates steady, pushing the euro lower.
MCX Gold June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Technicals are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 12189 levels. if broken can see further fall to 12098 and 11978 If market holds above 12386 further rally can be seen towards 12457 and 12594
Recommendations–MCX Gold Aug: Sell at 12372 Target 12310 and 12230 Stoploss at 12415
MCX Silver July - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Technicals are neutral to bearish signalling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 23515 levels. if broken can see further fall to 23831 and 23600 If market holds above 23898 further rally can be seen towards 24002 and 24190
Recommendations-MCX Silver July: sell at 23965 Target 23820 and 23700 stoploss at 24130
MCXARUN
9994500540
Spot gold tumbled through $900 a troy ounce, which sparked a wave of technical selling Monday that carried the metal down to $876/oz and its falls, which were attributed to large liquidations by CTA accounts in commodities, in particular gold. This liquidation is perhaps related to quarter-end pressures in order to raise cash for client redemption payments.
Gold tends to move in the opposite direction to the dollar as it seen as an alternative investment to the U.S. currency and a hedge against rising inflation. Oil prices have also eased as the dollar has firmed, reducing gold's role as a hedge against rising fuel costs.
The U.S dollar is gaining against the euro as it is still unclear if the Feds will hike or steady rates and on speculation that consumer confidence released today will show a drop, consequently that will negatively affect consumer's confidence. Therefore, at the moment, as the green currency remains weak, investors are still guided straight to the shiny metal.
Australian gold production has fallen by a greater-than-expected 7 percent in the last year its world's third-largest producer of gold behind China and South Africa. Its output is estimated at 231 tones in the year to June 30, against 249 tones the year before.
Platinum assets in Zuercher Kantonal bank's exchange-traded fund climbed 18 percent to a record last week. The 62,353.15 ounces in the ZKB Platinum ETF as of June 20 exceeded the record 54,498.72 ounces of Dec. 29, according to figures e-mailed today from Zurich-based ZKB. Platinum has trailed the company's silver, gold and palladium funds that climbed to all-time highs last month. The platinum assets were up 18 percent from 52,762.58 ounces a week earlier.
U.S.Economy:
The Chicago Federal Reserve's index of national activity improved from -1.23 to -.96 in May, still a sign of contraction. 63 of the 85 indicators used were said to have recorded negative changes.
The Federal Reserve meets today and Wednesday and is expected to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 2.0%. Traders will be watching for Wednesday afternoon's statement for any clues to future direction.
Currencies update:
The IFO Institute's index of business confidence in Germany fell from 103.5 to 101.3 in June, weaker than expected.
European data yesterday showed that the economic slowdown is accelerating just as the European Central Bank is planning to raise interest rates, leading some traders to bet the ECB will be forced to hold rates steady, pushing the euro lower.
MCX Gold June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Technicals are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 12189 levels. if broken can see further fall to 12098 and 11978 If market holds above 12386 further rally can be seen towards 12457 and 12594
Recommendations–MCX Gold Aug: Sell at 12372 Target 12310 and 12230 Stoploss at 12415
MCX Silver July - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Technicals are neutral to bearish signalling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 23515 levels. if broken can see further fall to 23831 and 23600 If market holds above 23898 further rally can be seen towards 24002 and 24190
Recommendations-MCX Silver July: sell at 23965 Target 23820 and 23700 stoploss at 24130
MCXARUN
9994500540
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
Lay offs continue in the US with United airways and Citi group announcing. UAL has announced that it will lay off 950 pilots. The layoffs are more in crude oil dependent industries and financials. Crude oil prices are directionless. It may take a few months for demand in emerging markets to fall. At the moment currency traders will be caught between eurozone and US economic growth. Cable will be switched between the US dollar and euro. Markets will be judging the level of hawkishness of Bernanke tomorrow.
Australia’s gold production is expected to fall 7.8% to 231 tonnes in the year to June 30 according to the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Economic Resources. Australia is the world’s third largest gold producer and although a rebound in output to 256 tonnes is expected in 2008/09, long term (3-5 years) gold supplies will be in deficit. The Central bank Gold Sales agreement (CBGA) will be over by 2010-2011. With no fear of central bank sales gold will have an unending one way rise after CBGA gets over.
PLATINUM OCTOBER -- INTRA DAY PIVOT $2055.0
In the short term platinum can fall to $1980 and thereafter target $2100 and $2192 as long as $2038 and $2019 holds
MCX CARBON CREDIT --NOVEMBER (price in Indian Rupees)
Carbon Credits targets 1454 and 1502 this week as long as 1395 holds.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Australia’s gold production is expected to fall 7.8% to 231 tonnes in the year to June 30 according to the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Economic Resources. Australia is the world’s third largest gold producer and although a rebound in output to 256 tonnes is expected in 2008/09, long term (3-5 years) gold supplies will be in deficit. The Central bank Gold Sales agreement (CBGA) will be over by 2010-2011. With no fear of central bank sales gold will have an unending one way rise after CBGA gets over.
PLATINUM OCTOBER -- INTRA DAY PIVOT $2055.0
In the short term platinum can fall to $1980 and thereafter target $2100 and $2192 as long as $2038 and $2019 holds
MCX CARBON CREDIT --NOVEMBER (price in Indian Rupees)
Carbon Credits targets 1454 and 1502 this week as long as 1395 holds.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Friday, June 20, 2008
MCX Crude Oil drops on Saudi Arabia's plan to increase production
Oil prices dropped Thursday after China said it will raise fuel prices, a move that could dampen the booming Asian nation's oil consumption. Retail gas prices slid overnight. Growing Chinese demand for oil has underpinned the multiyear rally in oil prices. But higher prices could crimp that demand. Concerns about spiking Chinese demand for diesel due to cleanup operations in the aftermath of last month's earthquake contributed to oil's run-up in recent weeks
Saudi Arabia plans to increase crude production by 200,000 barrels a day, according to a statement from the kingdom's embassy in London. The statement didn't specify the timing of the increase. Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi pledged on May 16 to boost output by 300,000 barrels a day in June. Saudi Arabia has since indicated it plans to announce a further addition at this week's meeting in Jeddah, according to an official at the OPEC
Also in news Venezuela will not be attending the scheduled meeting on this week as Saudi Arabia will take measures of increasing output as they take in every consideration in order to lower prices that have been affecting many nations while Venezuela believes there is no need for more output.
The Chinese government announced that they are increasing their subsidized gasoline prices (by roughly 16%) and diesel prices (by roughly 40%). The move is expected to reduce demand in China and help ease the world's tight supplies of crude oil, and the Nigerian militants attacked and closed a 200,000 barrel per day offshore oil facility owned by Royal Dutch Shell.
Goldman Sachs raised its 2008 price forecast for crude to $117 a barrel, from the previous view of $108 a barrel. The bank now expects 2009 oil prices to reach $140 a barrel next year, up from $110 a barrel.
Natural gas in New York declined after a U.S. government report showed that supplies gained within analysts expectations and crude oil fell
The U.S. Department of Energy said that underground supplies of natural gas were up 57 billion cubic feet last week to 1.943 trillion cubic feet. Supplies are down 16% from a year ago and down 3% from the five-year average.
MCX Crude Oil July - Technical Outlook:
Tech The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is Negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Technicals are neutral to sideways signaling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 5660 level. if broken can see further fall to 5537 and 5390 If market holds above 5781 further rally can be seen towards 5878 and 6025
Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil July: Buy at 5610 Target 5705 and 5790 Stoploss 5565
MCX Natural gas July - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Technicals have turned neutral to bullish and market is expected to remain positive above 570 if sustain above this level can see a rally towards 587 and 599 If market sustains below 558 can see a further fall towards 541 and 529
Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas July: Buy at 548 Target 555 and 562 Stop loss at 544
MCXARUN
9994500540
Saudi Arabia plans to increase crude production by 200,000 barrels a day, according to a statement from the kingdom's embassy in London. The statement didn't specify the timing of the increase. Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi pledged on May 16 to boost output by 300,000 barrels a day in June. Saudi Arabia has since indicated it plans to announce a further addition at this week's meeting in Jeddah, according to an official at the OPEC
Also in news Venezuela will not be attending the scheduled meeting on this week as Saudi Arabia will take measures of increasing output as they take in every consideration in order to lower prices that have been affecting many nations while Venezuela believes there is no need for more output.
The Chinese government announced that they are increasing their subsidized gasoline prices (by roughly 16%) and diesel prices (by roughly 40%). The move is expected to reduce demand in China and help ease the world's tight supplies of crude oil, and the Nigerian militants attacked and closed a 200,000 barrel per day offshore oil facility owned by Royal Dutch Shell.
Goldman Sachs raised its 2008 price forecast for crude to $117 a barrel, from the previous view of $108 a barrel. The bank now expects 2009 oil prices to reach $140 a barrel next year, up from $110 a barrel.
Natural gas in New York declined after a U.S. government report showed that supplies gained within analysts expectations and crude oil fell
The U.S. Department of Energy said that underground supplies of natural gas were up 57 billion cubic feet last week to 1.943 trillion cubic feet. Supplies are down 16% from a year ago and down 3% from the five-year average.
MCX Crude Oil July - Technical Outlook:
Tech The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is Negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Technicals are neutral to sideways signaling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 5660 level. if broken can see further fall to 5537 and 5390 If market holds above 5781 further rally can be seen towards 5878 and 6025
Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil July: Buy at 5610 Target 5705 and 5790 Stoploss 5565
MCX Natural gas July - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Technicals have turned neutral to bullish and market is expected to remain positive above 570 if sustain above this level can see a rally towards 587 and 599 If market sustains below 558 can see a further fall towards 541 and 529
Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas July: Buy at 548 Target 555 and 562 Stop loss at 544
MCXARUN
9994500540
MCX Gold trades towards a weekly highs
Gold rose to a one-week high on speculation that surging costs of raw materials will boost demand for the precious metal as a hedge against inflation. Silver also gained.
Gold has had a correlation of 0.70 against the euro-dollar exchange rate this year, compared with 0.58 last year, Bloomberg data show. A figure of 1 would mean the two move in lockstep. The dollar slid to a one-week low versus the euro on speculation a report today will show a contraction in U.S. manufacturing, encouraging the Federal Reserve to delay raising interest rates.
Spot gold traded sideways to upside, struggling to find a direction amid uncertainty over the dollar's short-term prospects, The dollar weakened as weak quarterly performances from Wall Street banks have refocused the market's attention on the impact of the credit crisis on the U.S. economy.
South Africa, the biggest precious metals producer, said mining output fell 2 percent in April. Gold production dropped 10.1 percent from a year earlier, Pretoria-based Statistics South Africa, the national statistics agency, Non-gold output fell 0.7 percent.
Russia's foreign currency and gold reserves, the world's third largest, rose to a record $551.5 billion last week, The value of reserves increased by $2.4 billion in the week
ended June 13, Moscow-based Bank Rossii, the central bank, the reserves gained $500 million in the previous week.
India's largest commodity exchange, the Multi Commodity Exchange, will launch platinum futures on Today; MCX will launch September and December contracts with Mumbai as the delivery center.
Gold imports by India, the world's largest consumer of the metal, fell 52% in May to 32.9 metric tons; the country imported around 107.9 tons of gold during the first five months of the year compared with 300 tons a year ago. As for silver, the country imported around 24 tons duty-free in May, the first time since December.
U.S.Economy:
The Conference Board's index of leading indicators was up .1% in May, a little better than expected.
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's regional index of manufacturing fell from -15.6 to -17.1 in June, weaker than expected.
The U.S. Labor Department said that jobless claims were down 5,000 last week to 381,000, a little more than expected.
Currencies update:
Inflation appears to be rising everywhere. Statistics Canada said that consumer prices were up 1.0% in May and up 2.2% from a year ago, more than expected. The core index of prices was up 1.5% in May from a year ago. Also, wholesale sales were up 1.4% in April. The September Canadian dollar is steady to higher.
The U.K.'s Office for National Statistics said that retail sales were up 3.5% in May, much stronger than expected and the biggest jump in 20 years.
MCX Gold June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Technicals have turned neutral to bullish and market is expected to remain positive above 12649 levels. If sustain above this level can see a rally towards 12769 and 12927 If market sustains below 12491 can see a further fall towards 12371 and 12213
Recommendations–MCX Gold Aug: Buy at 12435 Target 12570 and 12740 Stoploss at 12385
MCX Silver July - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Technical have turned neutral to bullish and market is expected to remain positive above 24790 levels. If sustain above this level can see a rally towards 25078 and 25347 If market sustains below 24390 can see a further fall towards 24171 and 23802
Recommendations-MCX Silver July: Buy at 24240 Target 24480 and 24790 stoploss at 24080
MCXARUN
9994500540
Gold has had a correlation of 0.70 against the euro-dollar exchange rate this year, compared with 0.58 last year, Bloomberg data show. A figure of 1 would mean the two move in lockstep. The dollar slid to a one-week low versus the euro on speculation a report today will show a contraction in U.S. manufacturing, encouraging the Federal Reserve to delay raising interest rates.
Spot gold traded sideways to upside, struggling to find a direction amid uncertainty over the dollar's short-term prospects, The dollar weakened as weak quarterly performances from Wall Street banks have refocused the market's attention on the impact of the credit crisis on the U.S. economy.
South Africa, the biggest precious metals producer, said mining output fell 2 percent in April. Gold production dropped 10.1 percent from a year earlier, Pretoria-based Statistics South Africa, the national statistics agency, Non-gold output fell 0.7 percent.
Russia's foreign currency and gold reserves, the world's third largest, rose to a record $551.5 billion last week, The value of reserves increased by $2.4 billion in the week
ended June 13, Moscow-based Bank Rossii, the central bank, the reserves gained $500 million in the previous week.
India's largest commodity exchange, the Multi Commodity Exchange, will launch platinum futures on Today; MCX will launch September and December contracts with Mumbai as the delivery center.
Gold imports by India, the world's largest consumer of the metal, fell 52% in May to 32.9 metric tons; the country imported around 107.9 tons of gold during the first five months of the year compared with 300 tons a year ago. As for silver, the country imported around 24 tons duty-free in May, the first time since December.
U.S.Economy:
The Conference Board's index of leading indicators was up .1% in May, a little better than expected.
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's regional index of manufacturing fell from -15.6 to -17.1 in June, weaker than expected.
The U.S. Labor Department said that jobless claims were down 5,000 last week to 381,000, a little more than expected.
Currencies update:
Inflation appears to be rising everywhere. Statistics Canada said that consumer prices were up 1.0% in May and up 2.2% from a year ago, more than expected. The core index of prices was up 1.5% in May from a year ago. Also, wholesale sales were up 1.4% in April. The September Canadian dollar is steady to higher.
The U.K.'s Office for National Statistics said that retail sales were up 3.5% in May, much stronger than expected and the biggest jump in 20 years.
MCX Gold June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Technicals have turned neutral to bullish and market is expected to remain positive above 12649 levels. If sustain above this level can see a rally towards 12769 and 12927 If market sustains below 12491 can see a further fall towards 12371 and 12213
Recommendations–MCX Gold Aug: Buy at 12435 Target 12570 and 12740 Stoploss at 12385
MCX Silver July - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Technical have turned neutral to bullish and market is expected to remain positive above 24790 levels. If sustain above this level can see a rally towards 25078 and 25347 If market sustains below 24390 can see a further fall towards 24171 and 23802
Recommendations-MCX Silver July: Buy at 24240 Target 24480 and 24790 stoploss at 24080
MCXARUN
9994500540
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
Crude oil has fallen after china raised energy prices. China raised petrol and diesel by 18 per cent and electricity tariffs rose by just less than 5 per cent. Technically if crude oil does not break $141 in the rest of the month then a fall to $120 and $110.60 is on the cards. Base metals will be volatile after the Peru government clinched a deal with mining workers. However workers are yet to return to work. Trading strategy in base metals is to buy only on a break of key technical resistances. Nickel continues to disappoint and looks set to fall below 2008 lows.
Next week is Fed week. Till then there is no major market moving economic news. The Fed is expected to remain hawkish and thereafter the US dollar will be the key to commodity prices. Crude oil traders will be preparing for the hurricane season in July. July to September, hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico will be the key for crude oil prices. In 2007 crude oil prices fell as there no major hurricanes.
COPPER -- JULY FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $363.0
$371 price target achieved. As long as copper holds $369 it will target $386 and $394.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $131.60
A fall below $130.64 will result in $125.60 and $121.60. Resistance at $135.10 and $138.60
MCXARUN
9994500540
Next week is Fed week. Till then there is no major market moving economic news. The Fed is expected to remain hawkish and thereafter the US dollar will be the key to commodity prices. Crude oil traders will be preparing for the hurricane season in July. July to September, hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico will be the key for crude oil prices. In 2007 crude oil prices fell as there no major hurricanes.
COPPER -- JULY FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $363.0
$371 price target achieved. As long as copper holds $369 it will target $386 and $394.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $131.60
A fall below $130.64 will result in $125.60 and $121.60. Resistance at $135.10 and $138.60
MCXARUN
9994500540
Thursday, June 19, 2008
safe trade calls
GOLD
for the day buy only abv 12440-50 S/L 12415 and T/p 12500-550/towards 12600, close abv 12630 seen new rally OR sell only below 12270-250 S/L 12290 and T/p 12200-150/12050/close below test 12850-900 atleast/ towards 12700 in coming days (any time close above 12440/12630/12875/13050/ 13330/13510 bullish while close below 11920/11775/11375/11200 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
for the day buy only abv 24600-630 S/L 24510 and T/p 24775-800/sustain abv 24800 seen new rally OR sell below 24150 S/L 24210 and T/p 24025/23940/ 23870/23775/down rally(any time close below 23275/23000-22875/22300/21575 -500/20400/19250/18775 bearish rally while close above 24800/25500/26300/ 27700 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
continue to view, as long resistance of 5925 & 6000 down rally expected. for the day sell ard 5915-20 S/L 5925 and T/p 5875-50/5810 OR sell below 5775 S/L 5800 and T/p 5740-5700/5665/5630-40/close below test 5490-5500 atleast and towards 5450 in coming days, (anytime close abv 6000 test 6125 atleast/upto 6200) (now crude need to close above 6000 for bullish rally while close below 5635/5440/5215/5100/ 4415/3890 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
we book profit on buy abv 338.5/342/ 348.5-349.5, for the day buy only abv 355 S/L 353.5 and T/p 357-357.5/ towards 361/close abv 361.5 test 370 atleast/towards 375 in coming days OR buy ard 347-347.2 S/L 346.5 and T/p 349-350/352 (upside strong rally only on close above 361.5 while close below 339/330-326.5/310 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
for the day buy only abv 12440-50 S/L 12415 and T/p 12500-550/towards 12600, close abv 12630 seen new rally OR sell only below 12270-250 S/L 12290 and T/p 12200-150/12050/close below test 12850-900 atleast/ towards 12700 in coming days (any time close above 12440/12630/12875/13050/ 13330/13510 bullish while close below 11920/11775/11375/11200 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
for the day buy only abv 24600-630 S/L 24510 and T/p 24775-800/sustain abv 24800 seen new rally OR sell below 24150 S/L 24210 and T/p 24025/23940/ 23870/23775/down rally(any time close below 23275/23000-22875/22300/21575 -500/20400/19250/18775 bearish rally while close above 24800/25500/26300/ 27700 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
continue to view, as long resistance of 5925 & 6000 down rally expected. for the day sell ard 5915-20 S/L 5925 and T/p 5875-50/5810 OR sell below 5775 S/L 5800 and T/p 5740-5700/5665/5630-40/close below test 5490-5500 atleast and towards 5450 in coming days, (anytime close abv 6000 test 6125 atleast/upto 6200) (now crude need to close above 6000 for bullish rally while close below 5635/5440/5215/5100/ 4415/3890 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
we book profit on buy abv 338.5/342/ 348.5-349.5, for the day buy only abv 355 S/L 353.5 and T/p 357-357.5/ towards 361/close abv 361.5 test 370 atleast/towards 375 in coming days OR buy ard 347-347.2 S/L 346.5 and T/p 349-350/352 (upside strong rally only on close above 361.5 while close below 339/330-326.5/310 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
MCX Lead bounces from recent lows
19 June 2008 09:50:32
MCX Lead trades higher and volatile following LME, closed near 80.60 after registering days high near 83.45, market was supportive due to heavy short covering in international markets. Intra day low registered at 80.05
There's only limited scope for a further downward correction in LME lead, the expected market surplus for '08 has already been adequately priced-in, which means the market can shrug off stock rises.
LME stocks are at their highest level since August '06. LME lead trades at $1,940 a metric ton, +8% from Tuesday's low.
Lead inventories at LME, increased by 1900 MT to 96775 MT.
MCX Lead June -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The prices closed below short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading downwards in positive region, showing decrease in bullish momentum.
Technical have turned neutral to bullish and market is expected to remain positive above 82.7 levels. If sustain above this level can see a rally towards 84.8 and 86.1, If market sustains below 81.4 can see a further fall towards 79.3 and 78.0
Recommendations –MCX Lead June: Buy at 80.00 Target 81.50 and 82.30 SL 79.20
MCXARUN
9994500540
MCX Lead trades higher and volatile following LME, closed near 80.60 after registering days high near 83.45, market was supportive due to heavy short covering in international markets. Intra day low registered at 80.05
There's only limited scope for a further downward correction in LME lead, the expected market surplus for '08 has already been adequately priced-in, which means the market can shrug off stock rises.
LME stocks are at their highest level since August '06. LME lead trades at $1,940 a metric ton, +8% from Tuesday's low.
Lead inventories at LME, increased by 1900 MT to 96775 MT.
MCX Lead June -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The prices closed below short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading downwards in positive region, showing decrease in bullish momentum.
Technical have turned neutral to bullish and market is expected to remain positive above 82.7 levels. If sustain above this level can see a rally towards 84.8 and 86.1, If market sustains below 81.4 can see a further fall towards 79.3 and 78.0
Recommendations –MCX Lead June: Buy at 80.00 Target 81.50 and 82.30 SL 79.20
MCXARUN
9994500540
MCX Zinc trades positive
19 June 2008 09:49:18
MCX Zinc trade positive following Southern copper crop news, registered days high of 84.35 and closed at 84.10 with net gain of 5.06% from previous closing.
Intra day low registered near 80.10
Zinc reacted to the upside on news that Southern Copper Corp. may be forced to temporarily close operations at its Ilo smelter and refinery and at its two copper mines in Peru because of protests that have cut supplies. Company officials have estimated that Southern Copper's operations in Peru will produce 330,000 tons of copper this year.
Zinc inventories at LME, decreased by -25 MT to 143825 MT.
MCX Zinc June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The prices closed below short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading downwards in positive region, showing decrease in bullish momentum.
Technical have turned neutral to bullish and market is expected to remain positive above 85.6 levels. If sustain above this level can see a rally towards 87.1 and 89.9, If market sustains below 82.9 can see a further fall towards 81.4 and 78.6
Recommendations- MCX Zinc June: Buy at 83.80-83.50 Target 85 and 86.20 SL 82.50
MCXARUN
9994500540
MCX Zinc trade positive following Southern copper crop news, registered days high of 84.35 and closed at 84.10 with net gain of 5.06% from previous closing.
Intra day low registered near 80.10
Zinc reacted to the upside on news that Southern Copper Corp. may be forced to temporarily close operations at its Ilo smelter and refinery and at its two copper mines in Peru because of protests that have cut supplies. Company officials have estimated that Southern Copper's operations in Peru will produce 330,000 tons of copper this year.
Zinc inventories at LME, decreased by -25 MT to 143825 MT.
MCX Zinc June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The prices closed below short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading downwards in positive region, showing decrease in bullish momentum.
Technical have turned neutral to bullish and market is expected to remain positive above 85.6 levels. If sustain above this level can see a rally towards 87.1 and 89.9, If market sustains below 82.9 can see a further fall towards 81.4 and 78.6
Recommendations- MCX Zinc June: Buy at 83.80-83.50 Target 85 and 86.20 SL 82.50
MCXARUN
9994500540
Crude Oil : Bounces back on US supply data
19 June 2008 11:14:27
Oil prices recovered yesterday, after the release of US Energy Department’s weekly inventory report which showed the fifth consecutive weekly decline in the nation’s crude inventories.
Crude oil July in NYMEX settled at $136.25 yesterday, after trading in the range $131.82 - $136.88.
Crude supplies dropped by 1.2 million barrels to 301.0 million for the week ended June 13, which makes the total fall in the past five weeks to 24.8 million barrels.
But expectations that Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter, is considering increasing its output next month have slightly eased the concerns regarding supply of oil.
Oil prices had touched a new all-time high near $140 a barrel on Monday, on reports that a fire forced Norwegian oil company StatoilHydro to halt oil production at a North Sea platform.
The oil cartel OPEC in its latest monthly oil market report released on Friday cut its estimate for 2008 global oil demand to an increase of 1.1 million barrels a day, from an increase of 1.17 million barrels projected earlier. The total global oil consumption was revised to 86.88 million barrels a day from the previous estimate of 86.95 million barrels a day.
Earlier, the International Energy Agency lowered its forecast for average global oil product demand in 2008 to 86.8 million barrels a day, down 80,000 barrels a day from its previous estimate.
According to the latest energy-outlook report from the US Energy Information Administration, global oil consumption was up a lower than expected 630,000 barrels per day during the first quarter of 2008 compared with year-ago levels, against the expected growth by 1 million barrels a day.
But the US Energy Department’s weekly inventory report last week had revealed that the nation's crude supplies dropped 4.6 million barrels to 302.2 million barrels for the week ended June 6, taking the total fall in crude inventories to 23.6 million in four weeks.
Potential supply threats due to geo-political tensions and the Atlantic hurricane season and OPEC’s unwillingness to increase output despite high prices continue to underpin oil prices.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1st. Arthur, the first Atlantic storm of the season, made landfall on Sunday near Mexico forcing the closure of two export terminals, but afterwards weakened to a tropical depression creating heavy rains in the Gulf of Mexico.
Repeated attacks on Nigerian oil facilities sustain concerns on supply from the oil–rich Niger Delta.
DWTI (July) traded in the range $132.47 - $137.25 and closed at $137.17 ($134.53).
Weekly Outlook (NYMEX Crude oil July)
Resistances are $137, $138.14 and $139.14; supports $134, $132.35, $131.30. Expecting more weakness below $132.35.
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
DGCXCrude (July) - Bullish above 136.25; bearish below 135.76
MCXARUN
9994500540
Oil prices recovered yesterday, after the release of US Energy Department’s weekly inventory report which showed the fifth consecutive weekly decline in the nation’s crude inventories.
Crude oil July in NYMEX settled at $136.25 yesterday, after trading in the range $131.82 - $136.88.
Crude supplies dropped by 1.2 million barrels to 301.0 million for the week ended June 13, which makes the total fall in the past five weeks to 24.8 million barrels.
But expectations that Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter, is considering increasing its output next month have slightly eased the concerns regarding supply of oil.
Oil prices had touched a new all-time high near $140 a barrel on Monday, on reports that a fire forced Norwegian oil company StatoilHydro to halt oil production at a North Sea platform.
The oil cartel OPEC in its latest monthly oil market report released on Friday cut its estimate for 2008 global oil demand to an increase of 1.1 million barrels a day, from an increase of 1.17 million barrels projected earlier. The total global oil consumption was revised to 86.88 million barrels a day from the previous estimate of 86.95 million barrels a day.
Earlier, the International Energy Agency lowered its forecast for average global oil product demand in 2008 to 86.8 million barrels a day, down 80,000 barrels a day from its previous estimate.
According to the latest energy-outlook report from the US Energy Information Administration, global oil consumption was up a lower than expected 630,000 barrels per day during the first quarter of 2008 compared with year-ago levels, against the expected growth by 1 million barrels a day.
But the US Energy Department’s weekly inventory report last week had revealed that the nation's crude supplies dropped 4.6 million barrels to 302.2 million barrels for the week ended June 6, taking the total fall in crude inventories to 23.6 million in four weeks.
Potential supply threats due to geo-political tensions and the Atlantic hurricane season and OPEC’s unwillingness to increase output despite high prices continue to underpin oil prices.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1st. Arthur, the first Atlantic storm of the season, made landfall on Sunday near Mexico forcing the closure of two export terminals, but afterwards weakened to a tropical depression creating heavy rains in the Gulf of Mexico.
Repeated attacks on Nigerian oil facilities sustain concerns on supply from the oil–rich Niger Delta.
DWTI (July) traded in the range $132.47 - $137.25 and closed at $137.17 ($134.53).
Weekly Outlook (NYMEX Crude oil July)
Resistances are $137, $138.14 and $139.14; supports $134, $132.35, $131.30. Expecting more weakness below $132.35.
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
DGCXCrude (July) - Bullish above 136.25; bearish below 135.76
MCXARUN
9994500540
Gold : Ends higher on weak Dollar, recovery in Oil
19 June 2008 11:11:53
Gold pared ended higher yesterday, as the dollar drifted lower and oil prices surged above $136 a barrel.
International spot gold traded in the range $880.45 - $894.10 and last quoted at $893.15 ($881.90).
In the absence of fresh major economic data the dollar continued to cut down the previous week gains, influenced by downbeat Housing sector and industrial production data released early this week.
According to the release by US Commerce Department on Tuesday, Housing starts fell a more-than-expected 3.3% in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 975,000, the lowest level since March 1991.
In another unsupportive data for the dollar, the Federal Reserve reported a 0.2 % decrease in US industrial production in May.
Dollar had eased on Monday due to profit booking, after a meeting of the Group of Eight finance ministers in Japan steered clear of the greenback's recent exchange-rate weakness issue and focused on the rise in commodity prices and the related economic risks.
The greenback had gained sharply last week supported by expectations of an interest rate hike amid rising inflation, and strong retail sales data from the US.
The two-day meeting of Federal Open Market Committee to decide whether to adjust its benchmark interest rate from 2% is scheduled to start on June 24.
Data from the Labor Department showed a rise in US consumer prices at the fastest pace in six months, strengthening the growing expectations for a Federal Reserve interest-rate hike. As per the data, US consumer price index climbed 0.6% in May.
Last week, the US Commerce Department reported a 1 % rise in May retail sales, the biggest increase recorded since November, letting the US currency to add to this week’s sharp gains.
The recent data from various sectors in the US have given rather mixed hints regarding the economy.
The US trade deficit had widened 7.8% in April to a seasonally adjusted $60.9 billion from $56.5 billion in March, according to the report by US Commerce Department on Tuesday. The growing deficit was driven by a surge in crude oil imports, which eclipsed a significant gain in the nation’s exports.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics of the US Labor Department reported a more-than-expected rise in the unemployment rate in May to 5.5%, against the expected 5.1%. The total number of unemployed persons increased by 861,000 to 8.5 million in May, after seasonal adjustment, as per the government's Household Survey Data.
According to the data released by Commerce Department, real gross domestic product of the US increased at a 0.9% annual rate in the first three months of the year, slightly faster than the previous estimate of 0.6%.
Oil prices recovered as US crude oil inventories recorded the fifth consecutive weekly decline, as reported by the US Energy Department.
Last day DGCX Gold Aug traded in the range $883.80 – $897.70 and closed at $895.80 ($886.70).
Weekly Outlook (Spot Gold)
Resistances are $874, $884, $890, $899; supports $856, $845. Some recovery is expected above $884.60. If trades below $858, spot gold may move towards $845.
DGCX Gold August
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (Aug) - Bullish above $ 896; bearish below $ 891
MCXARUN
9994500540
Gold pared ended higher yesterday, as the dollar drifted lower and oil prices surged above $136 a barrel.
International spot gold traded in the range $880.45 - $894.10 and last quoted at $893.15 ($881.90).
In the absence of fresh major economic data the dollar continued to cut down the previous week gains, influenced by downbeat Housing sector and industrial production data released early this week.
According to the release by US Commerce Department on Tuesday, Housing starts fell a more-than-expected 3.3% in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 975,000, the lowest level since March 1991.
In another unsupportive data for the dollar, the Federal Reserve reported a 0.2 % decrease in US industrial production in May.
Dollar had eased on Monday due to profit booking, after a meeting of the Group of Eight finance ministers in Japan steered clear of the greenback's recent exchange-rate weakness issue and focused on the rise in commodity prices and the related economic risks.
The greenback had gained sharply last week supported by expectations of an interest rate hike amid rising inflation, and strong retail sales data from the US.
The two-day meeting of Federal Open Market Committee to decide whether to adjust its benchmark interest rate from 2% is scheduled to start on June 24.
Data from the Labor Department showed a rise in US consumer prices at the fastest pace in six months, strengthening the growing expectations for a Federal Reserve interest-rate hike. As per the data, US consumer price index climbed 0.6% in May.
Last week, the US Commerce Department reported a 1 % rise in May retail sales, the biggest increase recorded since November, letting the US currency to add to this week’s sharp gains.
The recent data from various sectors in the US have given rather mixed hints regarding the economy.
The US trade deficit had widened 7.8% in April to a seasonally adjusted $60.9 billion from $56.5 billion in March, according to the report by US Commerce Department on Tuesday. The growing deficit was driven by a surge in crude oil imports, which eclipsed a significant gain in the nation’s exports.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics of the US Labor Department reported a more-than-expected rise in the unemployment rate in May to 5.5%, against the expected 5.1%. The total number of unemployed persons increased by 861,000 to 8.5 million in May, after seasonal adjustment, as per the government's Household Survey Data.
According to the data released by Commerce Department, real gross domestic product of the US increased at a 0.9% annual rate in the first three months of the year, slightly faster than the previous estimate of 0.6%.
Oil prices recovered as US crude oil inventories recorded the fifth consecutive weekly decline, as reported by the US Energy Department.
Last day DGCX Gold Aug traded in the range $883.80 – $897.70 and closed at $895.80 ($886.70).
Weekly Outlook (Spot Gold)
Resistances are $874, $884, $890, $899; supports $856, $845. Some recovery is expected above $884.60. If trades below $858, spot gold may move towards $845.
DGCX Gold August
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (Aug) - Bullish above $ 896; bearish below $ 891
MCXARUN
9994500540
MCX Nickel registers weekly low following LME
19 June 2008 09:47:48
MCX Nickel dropped to a weekly low of 988 following LME movement and profit booking, Nickel closed near 1004 with net loss of 3.09% from previous closing. Intra day high registered near 1044.50
LME nickel comes under pressure due to a poor fundamental outlook and technical weakness, rising stocks amid declining demand from the stainless steel sector, along wtih "significant" resistance at the thirty-day moving average, now around $24,363/metric ton.
Nickel inventories at LME, increased by -180 MT to 46818 MT.
MCX Nickel June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The prices closed below short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading downwards in positive region, showing decrease in bullish momentum.
Technical are neutral to bearish signalling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 980 levels. If broken can see further fall to 956 and 923, If market holds above 1012 further rally can be seen towards 1036 and 1069
Recommendations: MCX Nickel June: Sell at 1010 Target 995 and 985 SL 1022
MCXARUN
9994500540
MCX Nickel dropped to a weekly low of 988 following LME movement and profit booking, Nickel closed near 1004 with net loss of 3.09% from previous closing. Intra day high registered near 1044.50
LME nickel comes under pressure due to a poor fundamental outlook and technical weakness, rising stocks amid declining demand from the stainless steel sector, along wtih "significant" resistance at the thirty-day moving average, now around $24,363/metric ton.
Nickel inventories at LME, increased by -180 MT to 46818 MT.
MCX Nickel June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The prices closed below short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading downwards in positive region, showing decrease in bullish momentum.
Technical are neutral to bearish signalling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 980 levels. If broken can see further fall to 956 and 923, If market holds above 1012 further rally can be seen towards 1036 and 1069
Recommendations: MCX Nickel June: Sell at 1010 Target 995 and 985 SL 1022
MCXARUN
9994500540
MCX to launch futures trading in Platinum
MUMBAI: Do you want to trade in platinum futures in India? Yes, it is possible from today onwards. Multi Commodity Exchange, India's largest commodity bourse, is launching platinum futures on Thursday.
MCX, the leader in futures trading in gold, silver and crude oil, is adding another precious commodity by facilitating trading in platinum from today.
Platinum is a heavy, malleable, precious, gray-white transition metal. It is resistant to corrosion and occurs in some nickel and copper ores along with some native deposits. Platinum is used in jewelry, laboratory equipment, electrical contacts, dentistry, and automobile emissions control devices.
Platinum is actively traded abroad at Tokyo Commodity Exchange in Japan and New York Commodity Exchange (NYMAX).
According to MCX Managing Director Joseph Massey, futures trading in platinum is an important step for the exchange. "We are currently the leader in future trading in gold and silver. We are adding platinum to these precious metals group," he said.
He said with presence of a precious metal like platinum, investors will now have more opportunities for investment and the industry can hedge their requirements.
Compared to 2006-07, when 9 tonnes of metal was consumed, the fiscal 2007-08 witnessed utilisation of 10 tonnes of metal. India imports 2 tonnes of metal every year.
MCX said four contracts, each in January, April, July and October will be on offer and the trading lot will be 500 gm. The maximum order size would be 5 kg and the price quote will be ex-Mumbai. The delivery will be made only through designated warehouses from Mumbai.
The price rise witnessed in platinum since 5 years was five times. In 2003, the rates were hovering around $600. The metal at Tokyo Commodity Exchange touched its highest peak of $2,299 per ounce on April 3.
MCXARUN
9994500540
MCX, the leader in futures trading in gold, silver and crude oil, is adding another precious commodity by facilitating trading in platinum from today.
Platinum is a heavy, malleable, precious, gray-white transition metal. It is resistant to corrosion and occurs in some nickel and copper ores along with some native deposits. Platinum is used in jewelry, laboratory equipment, electrical contacts, dentistry, and automobile emissions control devices.
Platinum is actively traded abroad at Tokyo Commodity Exchange in Japan and New York Commodity Exchange (NYMAX).
According to MCX Managing Director Joseph Massey, futures trading in platinum is an important step for the exchange. "We are currently the leader in future trading in gold and silver. We are adding platinum to these precious metals group," he said.
He said with presence of a precious metal like platinum, investors will now have more opportunities for investment and the industry can hedge their requirements.
Compared to 2006-07, when 9 tonnes of metal was consumed, the fiscal 2007-08 witnessed utilisation of 10 tonnes of metal. India imports 2 tonnes of metal every year.
MCX said four contracts, each in January, April, July and October will be on offer and the trading lot will be 500 gm. The maximum order size would be 5 kg and the price quote will be ex-Mumbai. The delivery will be made only through designated warehouses from Mumbai.
The price rise witnessed in platinum since 5 years was five times. In 2003, the rates were hovering around $600. The metal at Tokyo Commodity Exchange touched its highest peak of $2,299 per ounce on April 3.
MCXARUN
9994500540
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