The base metals pack staged a mini-recovery on the back of a weakness in the US Dollar and a bout of short-covering yesterday. However, this rise in prices could be temporary as the dollar weakened and hence buying emerged. The trend in the dollar is still upwards but could change in the coming months and provide some respite to prices. Base metal prices showed strength despite of bearish inventories for five out of six base metals.
Copper and Aluminum prices changed little as these metals plunged to multi-year lows in the morning. Inventories for copper gained 2,525 tonnes and this has been the seventeenth consecutive gain in inventories for the metal. Aluminum inventories jumped a whopping 44,425 tonnes. Gaining inventories amid a global economic recession is adding to concerns over declining demand. Zinc prices jumped 5% yesterday despite of an increase in LME inventories. Nickel prices gained sharply as output cutbacks have helped provide support. BHP Billiton said that it had scrapped a study on developing an integrated nickel project in Indonesia.
On the macroeconomic front, the US Dollar weakened and provided a respite to further decline in prices. US jobless claims jumped to a seven-year high of 516,000 as weakening demand led companies to fire more workers. This factor led to weakness in the dollar. Japan announced that it would offer up to $100bn to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in order to support emerging economies.
OUTLOOK
Base metal prices received some respite yesterday on the back of a weakness in the US Dollar. We feel that this recovery on the back of a weakness in the dollar is short-lived as the trend in base metals remains down. The change in trend could be seen only in the coming months as prices could react to physical buying in China, which is expected to pick up. Currently prices remain under pressure of the global economic slowdown as the macroeconomic picture is bleak. Financial markets across the globe are facing pressure and this is leading to volatility.
Rising inventories in the case of Copper and Aluminum are expected to put pressure on the downside. Since demand from China is expected to pick p in the next year, there is no current reason for gain. Hence, any gains in these metals could be followed by technical selling in the short-term.
On the macroeconomic front, the US is expected to announce data on retail sales, Michigan sentiment and business inventories today. This data could affect the dollar movement as a weakness in the data could weaken the dollar and provide some relief to the base metals market.
Copper
Immediate support is seen at Rs.183.30 levels for MCX November contract. Further below, support is seen at 180.60 levels. Copper is expected to trade sideways down.
Whereas resistance is seen at Rs.191.40 levels & further upwards at Rs. 194.90.
Zinc
Immediate support is seen at Rs.57.20 levels for MCX November contract whereas crucial support is seen at Rs.55.80 levels. Zinc is expected to trade sideways for the day.
Short-term resistance is seen at Rs 60.80 whereas major resistance is seen at Rs 62.10.
Zinc prices are currently trading around 93 levels. Immediate support is seen at Rs 92.30 levels for MCX Feb contract whereas crucial support is seen 90.60 levels. Short-term resistance is seen at Rs95.40 whereas major resistance is seen at Rs97.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Friday, November 14, 2008
mcx gold outlook
The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against the currencies of six trading partners, advanced to a 30-month high (88.15) yesterday.
The German economy, Europe's largest, slid into its worst recession in at least 12 years in the third quarter as the global financial crisis curbed exports and spending, government data showed yesterday.
U.S. stocks climbed, with Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 552.59, or 6.7 percent, to 8,835.25, after tumbling as much as 317.24 points earlier during yesterday’s trading session.
MARKET RECAP
The bullion pack witnessed an extremely volatile trading session yesterday with Spot Gold briefly breaching the $700 mark to recover sharply after market hours on the back of recovery in the Euro. Hedge funds liquidation has also hit the bullion pack hard as rush for cash led to sell-off across all asset classes. Crude futures breached the $55 mark, pulling prices to 22-month lows over declining energy demand concerns, also putting pressure on gold prices.
In currency market, the Euro rose sharply during yesterday’s trading session to close above its 10-Day Moving Average. The overall trend still remains sideways-down. For the day, Euro shall meet with resistance at 1.2928/1.3138 whereas support is seen at 1.2672/1.2492. The short-term top (87.88) for the Dollar Index was breached during yesterday’s trading session but later in the trading session, the DI fell sharply to close lower at 86.50.
Silver prices also fell during yesterday’s trading session briefly breaching the $9 mark but managed to recover all its losses to close in positive territory, following gold prices.
OUTLOOK
Spot gold prices have continued to trade in the range of $680 - $780 levels for the past 17 trading sessions. The presence of mixed trends in the bullion pack is indicative of indecisiveness in the markets. The Bullion prices are primarily being affected by currency movements and to some extent by crude prices. The Dollar Index still maintains its uptrend though it appears to be losing steam. Unless we see a reversal in trend in the $, bullion prices will continue to remain under pressure. Also, bullion pack is being impacted by the global economic weakness which isn’t appearing to help the bullion pack much. There's still is a push to hold cash amongst the investors community.
On intraday basis, Spot Gold prices have immediate support at $720/$700 whereas resistance is seen at $740/$755. Spot Silver prices shall find support at $8.95/$8.50 whereas resistance is seen at $9.60/$10.00.
MCX December Gold has support at 11550/11380 whereas resistance is seen at 11770/11880 levels whereas MCX December Silver shall find support at 16000/15970 whereas resistance is seen at 16520/16725 levels.
MCXARUN
9994500540
The German economy, Europe's largest, slid into its worst recession in at least 12 years in the third quarter as the global financial crisis curbed exports and spending, government data showed yesterday.
U.S. stocks climbed, with Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 552.59, or 6.7 percent, to 8,835.25, after tumbling as much as 317.24 points earlier during yesterday’s trading session.
MARKET RECAP
The bullion pack witnessed an extremely volatile trading session yesterday with Spot Gold briefly breaching the $700 mark to recover sharply after market hours on the back of recovery in the Euro. Hedge funds liquidation has also hit the bullion pack hard as rush for cash led to sell-off across all asset classes. Crude futures breached the $55 mark, pulling prices to 22-month lows over declining energy demand concerns, also putting pressure on gold prices.
In currency market, the Euro rose sharply during yesterday’s trading session to close above its 10-Day Moving Average. The overall trend still remains sideways-down. For the day, Euro shall meet with resistance at 1.2928/1.3138 whereas support is seen at 1.2672/1.2492. The short-term top (87.88) for the Dollar Index was breached during yesterday’s trading session but later in the trading session, the DI fell sharply to close lower at 86.50.
Silver prices also fell during yesterday’s trading session briefly breaching the $9 mark but managed to recover all its losses to close in positive territory, following gold prices.
OUTLOOK
Spot gold prices have continued to trade in the range of $680 - $780 levels for the past 17 trading sessions. The presence of mixed trends in the bullion pack is indicative of indecisiveness in the markets. The Bullion prices are primarily being affected by currency movements and to some extent by crude prices. The Dollar Index still maintains its uptrend though it appears to be losing steam. Unless we see a reversal in trend in the $, bullion prices will continue to remain under pressure. Also, bullion pack is being impacted by the global economic weakness which isn’t appearing to help the bullion pack much. There's still is a push to hold cash amongst the investors community.
On intraday basis, Spot Gold prices have immediate support at $720/$700 whereas resistance is seen at $740/$755. Spot Silver prices shall find support at $8.95/$8.50 whereas resistance is seen at $9.60/$10.00.
MCX December Gold has support at 11550/11380 whereas resistance is seen at 11770/11880 levels whereas MCX December Silver shall find support at 16000/15970 whereas resistance is seen at 16520/16725 levels.
MCXARUN
9994500540
nymex crude outlook
U.S. crude futures settled up yesterday tracking a slight bounce on Wall Street and steady crude supply.
According to the U.S. Department of Energy, crude oil supplies were unchanged last week at 311.9 million barrels. At the same time Supplies of gasoline were up 2.0 million barrels in spite of lower imports.
The report also says refinery use was down from 85.3% to 84.6% of capacity last week. Over the past four weeks, gasoline demand was down 1.9% from a year ago and distillate demand was down 4.6% from a year ago.
At the same time The International Energy Agency lowered its forecast of 2009 world oil demand by 670,000 barrels per day to 86.5 million barrels per day. That is still more than the U.S. Energy Department's forecast for 85.9 million barrels per day.
Oil price had touched an all-time high of $147.27 a barrel on 11th July but has corrected from there in the succeeding weeks.
Light, sweet crude oil for November delivery in the New York Mercantile Exchange traded in the range $59.66 - $54.67, before settling at $59 .39a barrel yesterday.
Weekly Crude Oil (DWTI NOVE.)
Expected to trade within the range of $ 63.10 to $59, breaking of either a side makes the direction, Resistances are $65.60 $69, $71.30, Supports seen at $57.20, $53.60 and$ 49.80.
DWTI (November) traded in the range $54.93 - $58.75 and closed at $54.93
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
DGCX Crude (November) - Bullish above $57.80; bearish below $57.20
MCXARUN
9994500540
According to the U.S. Department of Energy, crude oil supplies were unchanged last week at 311.9 million barrels. At the same time Supplies of gasoline were up 2.0 million barrels in spite of lower imports.
The report also says refinery use was down from 85.3% to 84.6% of capacity last week. Over the past four weeks, gasoline demand was down 1.9% from a year ago and distillate demand was down 4.6% from a year ago.
At the same time The International Energy Agency lowered its forecast of 2009 world oil demand by 670,000 barrels per day to 86.5 million barrels per day. That is still more than the U.S. Energy Department's forecast for 85.9 million barrels per day.
Oil price had touched an all-time high of $147.27 a barrel on 11th July but has corrected from there in the succeeding weeks.
Light, sweet crude oil for November delivery in the New York Mercantile Exchange traded in the range $59.66 - $54.67, before settling at $59 .39a barrel yesterday.
Weekly Crude Oil (DWTI NOVE.)
Expected to trade within the range of $ 63.10 to $59, breaking of either a side makes the direction, Resistances are $65.60 $69, $71.30, Supports seen at $57.20, $53.60 and$ 49.80.
DWTI (November) traded in the range $54.93 - $58.75 and closed at $54.93
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
DGCX Crude (November) - Bullish above $57.80; bearish below $57.20
MCXARUN
9994500540
comex Gold Outlook
US Gold futures fell yesterday despite weak dollar and strong crude prices, and ended nearly 2 percent lower due to the liquidation pressure as the tight credit market. Deteriorating global economy and weaker equities, investors cut riskier assets also weighed on gold prices.
Dollar fell against the euro on yesterday after weekly data showed a sharp jump in initial U.S. jobless claims. According to the report, the number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits rose last week to 516,000, the highest level since the weeks following the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks. At the same time The U.S. federal government posted a record high $237 billion budget deficit in the month of October.
China's stimulus packages also failed change the view of the economy. China launched an economic stimulus package on Sunday worth nearly $600 billion for supporting ailing economy. This plan is for 2 years and Funds from the stimulus package will be spent in ten major areas that include low-income housing, rural infrastructure, water, electricity, transportation and improvements in the environment. And also expected it will improve the current global economic condition by improving the domestic demand.
International spot gold traded in the range $736.75 - $700.25 a Troy Ounce and last quoted at $734.30
Weekly Outlook (DG. OCT.)
Expected to trade within the range $761.80 to $727, breaking of either a side makes the direction, Resistances are $745 $762, $778, Supports seen at $717, $707 and$ 683.
Last day DGCX Gold Dec. traded in the range $725.1– $699and closed at $719
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (Dec) - Bullish above $ 719.50 bearish below $ 715.50
MCXARUN
9994500540
Dollar fell against the euro on yesterday after weekly data showed a sharp jump in initial U.S. jobless claims. According to the report, the number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits rose last week to 516,000, the highest level since the weeks following the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks. At the same time The U.S. federal government posted a record high $237 billion budget deficit in the month of October.
China's stimulus packages also failed change the view of the economy. China launched an economic stimulus package on Sunday worth nearly $600 billion for supporting ailing economy. This plan is for 2 years and Funds from the stimulus package will be spent in ten major areas that include low-income housing, rural infrastructure, water, electricity, transportation and improvements in the environment. And also expected it will improve the current global economic condition by improving the domestic demand.
International spot gold traded in the range $736.75 - $700.25 a Troy Ounce and last quoted at $734.30
Weekly Outlook (DG. OCT.)
Expected to trade within the range $761.80 to $727, breaking of either a side makes the direction, Resistances are $745 $762, $778, Supports seen at $717, $707 and$ 683.
Last day DGCX Gold Dec. traded in the range $725.1– $699and closed at $719
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (Dec) - Bullish above $ 719.50 bearish below $ 715.50
MCXARUN
9994500540
SAFE TRADE CALLS
GOLD
Continue to view, as long Resistance 11750/11825 & 11900, down trend likely to continue. for the day sell below 11550 S/L 11610 and T/p 11490-500/ 11450/sustain below towards 11300 in coming days OR sell ard 11815-820 S/L 11830 and T/p 11750 -710 (any time close above 11900/12375/12850/13600/ 14325 bullish while close below 11450/ 11290-250 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
SINCE LAST 20-DAYS OUR DAILY VIEW WAS "as long Resist 17750 down trend continue" AND PRICE ATTEMPT ALMOST 5-6 TIMES ABV 17300 AND FALL TO 16000 YESTERDAY. Continue to view as long Resist of 16575 & 16825 down trend likely to continue. book profit on sell below 16850-800/16550/16500-475, for the day sell only below 16000 S/L 16100 and T/p 15900-800/close below 16000 test 15400 atleast in coming days OR sell ard 16540-560 S/L 16575 and T/p 16430-16350 (any time close below 15975 bearish rally while close above 17750/19000/20550/21400/ 22150/25250/26350/27475/ 28000 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
Continue to view, as long Resistance 2870 & 2950, down trend likely to continue. for the day sell only below 2750 S/L 2770 and T/p 2725-2710 OR sell ard 2912-18 S/L 2925 and T/p 2870-2840 (now crude need to close above 3150/3450/3765/4120/4400/4800/5000/ 5290 for bullish rally while close below 2750 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
PRICE TURN EXACT FROM OUR GIVEN RESISTANCE=186 AS DAYS HIGH WAS 185.95. Continue to view, as long Resistance of 191 & 199, down trend likely to continue. for the day sell only below 180.5 S/L 182.25 and T/p 179.50/177/sustain close below 179.5 towards 165-170 in coming days OR sell ard 190.2-190.5 S/L 191 and T/p 188-187 (upside strong rally only on close above 199/215/234.5/248/270/ 305/316/327/339/351.25/360.5/387/398 while close below 179.5 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
Continue to view, as long Resistance 11750/11825 & 11900, down trend likely to continue. for the day sell below 11550 S/L 11610 and T/p 11490-500/ 11450/sustain below towards 11300 in coming days OR sell ard 11815-820 S/L 11830 and T/p 11750 -710 (any time close above 11900/12375/12850/13600/ 14325 bullish while close below 11450/ 11290-250 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
SINCE LAST 20-DAYS OUR DAILY VIEW WAS "as long Resist 17750 down trend continue" AND PRICE ATTEMPT ALMOST 5-6 TIMES ABV 17300 AND FALL TO 16000 YESTERDAY. Continue to view as long Resist of 16575 & 16825 down trend likely to continue. book profit on sell below 16850-800/16550/16500-475, for the day sell only below 16000 S/L 16100 and T/p 15900-800/close below 16000 test 15400 atleast in coming days OR sell ard 16540-560 S/L 16575 and T/p 16430-16350 (any time close below 15975 bearish rally while close above 17750/19000/20550/21400/ 22150/25250/26350/27475/ 28000 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
Continue to view, as long Resistance 2870 & 2950, down trend likely to continue. for the day sell only below 2750 S/L 2770 and T/p 2725-2710 OR sell ard 2912-18 S/L 2925 and T/p 2870-2840 (now crude need to close above 3150/3450/3765/4120/4400/4800/5000/ 5290 for bullish rally while close below 2750 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
PRICE TURN EXACT FROM OUR GIVEN RESISTANCE=186 AS DAYS HIGH WAS 185.95. Continue to view, as long Resistance of 191 & 199, down trend likely to continue. for the day sell only below 180.5 S/L 182.25 and T/p 179.50/177/sustain close below 179.5 towards 165-170 in coming days OR sell ard 190.2-190.5 S/L 191 and T/p 188-187 (upside strong rally only on close above 199/215/234.5/248/270/ 305/316/327/339/351.25/360.5/387/398 while close below 179.5 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
long view caals
CRUDE OIL NYMEX
LIKELY TO $ 52 / 50 TOWARDS $ 45 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW $ 54.50, ONLY CLOSE ABOVE $ 65.50 & $ 72 CONFIRMS THIS DOWN TREND COMPLETED TEMPORARILY
COPPER
LIKELY TO TEST 175 ATLEAST / TOWARDS 165 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 179.50, ONLY CLOSE ABOVE 199 SOME UPSIDE AGAIN(NOV)
ZINC
LIKELY TO TEST 48 UPTO 45 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 52, ONLY CLOSE ABOVE 64 MAKE SOME UPTREND AGAIN (NOV)
MCXARUN
9994500540
LIKELY TO $ 52 / 50 TOWARDS $ 45 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW $ 54.50, ONLY CLOSE ABOVE $ 65.50 & $ 72 CONFIRMS THIS DOWN TREND COMPLETED TEMPORARILY
COPPER
LIKELY TO TEST 175 ATLEAST / TOWARDS 165 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 179.50, ONLY CLOSE ABOVE 199 SOME UPSIDE AGAIN(NOV)
ZINC
LIKELY TO TEST 48 UPTO 45 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 52, ONLY CLOSE ABOVE 64 MAKE SOME UPTREND AGAIN (NOV)
MCXARUN
9994500540
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