gold
we book profit on sell below 12140, for the day sell below 12085/12060 S/L 12110 and T/p 12000/close below test 11900-880 atleast/towards 11835-775 where strong support seen OR sell ard 12282-85 S/L 12295 and T/p 12225/ 12175 (any time close above 12340/ 12600/12875/13050/13330/13510 bullish while close below 12000/11775/11375/ 11200 bearish for medium term)
silver
we book profit on sell below 23150, for the day sell below 23175 S/L 23250 and T/p 23075-23000/22875-900/close below 22875 test 22550 atleast/towards 22450 -22325 in coming days OR buy only abv 23600 S/L 23540 and T/p 23675/23775 upto 23850 (any time close below 22750-300/21575-500/ 20400/19250/ 18775 bearish rally while close above 24500/25500/26300/27700 bullish for medium term)
copper
EIA Crude oil inventory schedule to release today. for the day sell only below 5300 S/L 5325 and T/p 5270/5210 atleast/towards 5140 in coming days OR sell ard 5432-40 S/L 5445 and T/p 5390-65 (now crude need to close above 5475/5730/5825 for bullish rally while close below 5300/5120/5050/4740/4450 bearish for medium term)
copper
we book profit on sell below 333, for the day sell only below 331.5-330 S/L 332.60 and T/p 326.5-27/below down rally sharp OR buy abv 338.5 S/L 337 and T/p 339.75-341/342.5 upto 345.5 (upside strong rally only on close above 352.5/361.5 while close below 330-326.5/310 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
Wednesday, June 4, 2008
energy intraday
Energy
04 June 2008 10:57:26
Energy June 04 2008
Major Headlines:
Oil fell steeply to trade beneath $126 a barrel on Tuesday due to concerns over slowing demand and a sharp rebound in the dollar, which came after the U.S. Federal Reserve warned that the weak greenback had fuelled inflation in the world's number one energy consumer.
Oil prices fell Tuesday after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke indicated that more interest rate cuts are unlikely, comments that sent the dollar higher and raised questions about oil's ability to reach new highs in the short term. Gas prices rose slightly to a new record near $3.98 a gallon.
In a speech to an international monetary conference in Spain, Bernanke suggested that further rate cuts are unlikely because of concerns about inflation. Since last year, a series of Fed cuts designed to shore up the economy has led to a protracted decline in the dollar's value against the euro. That helped feed the record run-up in oil prices as investors bought commodities such as oil as a hedge against inflation.
Kuwait's Oil Minister Mohammad al-Olaim said on Tuesday that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries was prepared to pump more oil if the market needs it.
"OPEC is prepared to increase supplies only if the market needs it," Olaim said in statements reported by the official KUNA news agency.
Oil fell on fears of lower demand as the global economy remains weak and as investors continue to book profits amid some speculation prices may not extend their record breaking rally. There was some support, however, from supply fears during the Atlantic hurricane season, a weak dollar and ongoing tension between major producer Iran and the West.
Today, the United States will release weekly energy inventory figures which are likely to provide more direction. Seasonally, the world's biggest energy consumer's gasoline demand should be rising during the summer driving season but some analysts reckon such purchases may not be as high this year because of the credit crunch.
NYMEX July natural gas is trading at new contract highs with hot temperatures in the forecast for much of the U.S
Natural Gas supply to Western Australia is expected to be disrupted for days after an explosion on Tuesday at an offshore plant which supplies 30-40 percent of the state's domestic gas needs, the operator of the plant said.
Apache Energy, a unit of U.S.-based oil and gas producer Apache Corp (APA.N), said it had notified the government of the blast along with those customers affected, but it did not immediately provide details on how much supply would be curtailed or identify the users facing delivery cuts.
MCX Crude Oil June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 5306 if market breaches below 5306 may see prices to take further correction towards 5260 and 5192 However if it holds back above 5420 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 5488 and 5534
Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil June: Sell at 5410 Target 5340 and 5260 Stoploss 5460
MCX Natural gas June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 527.80 levels. If market breaches 527.80 may see prices to take further upside towards 534.10 and 542.30 However if it holds back below 513.30 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 505.10 and 496
Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas June: Buy at 516 Target 520 and 527 Stop loss at 512
MCXARUN
9994500540
04 June 2008 10:57:26
Energy June 04 2008
Major Headlines:
Oil fell steeply to trade beneath $126 a barrel on Tuesday due to concerns over slowing demand and a sharp rebound in the dollar, which came after the U.S. Federal Reserve warned that the weak greenback had fuelled inflation in the world's number one energy consumer.
Oil prices fell Tuesday after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke indicated that more interest rate cuts are unlikely, comments that sent the dollar higher and raised questions about oil's ability to reach new highs in the short term. Gas prices rose slightly to a new record near $3.98 a gallon.
In a speech to an international monetary conference in Spain, Bernanke suggested that further rate cuts are unlikely because of concerns about inflation. Since last year, a series of Fed cuts designed to shore up the economy has led to a protracted decline in the dollar's value against the euro. That helped feed the record run-up in oil prices as investors bought commodities such as oil as a hedge against inflation.
Kuwait's Oil Minister Mohammad al-Olaim said on Tuesday that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries was prepared to pump more oil if the market needs it.
"OPEC is prepared to increase supplies only if the market needs it," Olaim said in statements reported by the official KUNA news agency.
Oil fell on fears of lower demand as the global economy remains weak and as investors continue to book profits amid some speculation prices may not extend their record breaking rally. There was some support, however, from supply fears during the Atlantic hurricane season, a weak dollar and ongoing tension between major producer Iran and the West.
Today, the United States will release weekly energy inventory figures which are likely to provide more direction. Seasonally, the world's biggest energy consumer's gasoline demand should be rising during the summer driving season but some analysts reckon such purchases may not be as high this year because of the credit crunch.
NYMEX July natural gas is trading at new contract highs with hot temperatures in the forecast for much of the U.S
Natural Gas supply to Western Australia is expected to be disrupted for days after an explosion on Tuesday at an offshore plant which supplies 30-40 percent of the state's domestic gas needs, the operator of the plant said.
Apache Energy, a unit of U.S.-based oil and gas producer Apache Corp (APA.N), said it had notified the government of the blast along with those customers affected, but it did not immediately provide details on how much supply would be curtailed or identify the users facing delivery cuts.
MCX Crude Oil June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 5306 if market breaches below 5306 may see prices to take further correction towards 5260 and 5192 However if it holds back above 5420 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 5488 and 5534
Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil June: Sell at 5410 Target 5340 and 5260 Stoploss 5460
MCX Natural gas June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 527.80 levels. If market breaches 527.80 may see prices to take further upside towards 534.10 and 542.30 However if it holds back below 513.30 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 505.10 and 496
Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas June: Buy at 516 Target 520 and 527 Stop loss at 512
MCXARUN
9994500540
bullion intraday
Bullion
04 June 2008 10:55:03
Bullion June 04 2008
Major Headlines:
Gold fell as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke signaled he's finished cutting U.S. borrowing costs rates for now, boosting the dollar and eroding the appeal of precious metals as alternative investments.
The U.S. Dollar Index, a weighted measure against the euro, yen and four other major
currencies, rose as much as 0.8 percent. In March, the dollar's plunge to a record helped send gold to the highest ever.
Gold, which investors use as a hedge against U.S. dollar weakness, is lower due to indications that the U.S. Fed may be done lowering official interest rates, which is positive for the dollar, and shift focus to tackling inflation. However, the Fed is unlikely to raise rates until housing prices stabilize
Bernanke also indicated that the Fed's current rate stance is "well positioned" to promote moderate growth and low inflation and that the Fed will monitor foreign exchange markets to ensure that the dollar remains a "strong and stable" currency.
Importantly, gold traders will continue to closely monitor the crude oil market and the value of the U.S. dollar versus the other major currencies. Weaker crude oil prices and a firmer greenback would put strong downside price pressure on the precious yellow metal. Any resumption of dollar weakness or crude oil strength would bolster the gold bulls to a degree. However, gold bulls are worried that gold prices have been trending lower for 2 1/2 months while during this time frame crude oil prices have hit all-time highs
Gold production in South African slumped by almost 16% during the first quarter of the year as mines were first shut down by a power shortage and then had to operate with reduced electricity supplies, Output for the three months amounted to 1.68 million troy ounces, or 52,228 kilograms, compared with about 1.99 million ounces in the previous quarter, On a Year-on-year basis, production was almost 17% lower, the Chamber of Mines said.
U.S.Economy:
Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke told an international monetary conference in Spain that further rate cuts were not likely because of rising inflation. He expects the U.S. economy to improve in the second half of 2008 and into 2009.
The U.S. Commerce Department said that factory orders were up 1.1% in April, much stronger than expected. Durable goods orders, however, were down .6% in April.
Currencies update:
Eurostat said that real GDP in the Euro area 15 was up .8% in the first quarter and up 2.2% from a year ago, up slightly from an earlier estimate. Also, an index of industrial producer prices was up 6.1% in April from a year ago, the most in seven years.
The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its interest rate unchanged at 7.25%, as expected. The June Australian dollar is steady.
MCX Gold June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 12048 If market breaches below 12048 may see prices to take further correction towards 11926 and 11782 However if it holds back above 12260 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 12358 and 12480
Recommendations–MCX Gold June: Sell at 12200 Target 12130 and 12050 Stoploss at 12260
MCX Silver July - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 23027 If market breaches below 23027 may see prices to take further correction towards 22713 and 22427 However if it holds back above 23627 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 23913 and 24227
Recommendations-MCX Silver July: Sell at 23410 Target 24210 and 22950 stoploss at 23555
MCXARUN
9994500540
04 June 2008 10:55:03
Bullion June 04 2008
Major Headlines:
Gold fell as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke signaled he's finished cutting U.S. borrowing costs rates for now, boosting the dollar and eroding the appeal of precious metals as alternative investments.
The U.S. Dollar Index, a weighted measure against the euro, yen and four other major
currencies, rose as much as 0.8 percent. In March, the dollar's plunge to a record helped send gold to the highest ever.
Gold, which investors use as a hedge against U.S. dollar weakness, is lower due to indications that the U.S. Fed may be done lowering official interest rates, which is positive for the dollar, and shift focus to tackling inflation. However, the Fed is unlikely to raise rates until housing prices stabilize
Bernanke also indicated that the Fed's current rate stance is "well positioned" to promote moderate growth and low inflation and that the Fed will monitor foreign exchange markets to ensure that the dollar remains a "strong and stable" currency.
Importantly, gold traders will continue to closely monitor the crude oil market and the value of the U.S. dollar versus the other major currencies. Weaker crude oil prices and a firmer greenback would put strong downside price pressure on the precious yellow metal. Any resumption of dollar weakness or crude oil strength would bolster the gold bulls to a degree. However, gold bulls are worried that gold prices have been trending lower for 2 1/2 months while during this time frame crude oil prices have hit all-time highs
Gold production in South African slumped by almost 16% during the first quarter of the year as mines were first shut down by a power shortage and then had to operate with reduced electricity supplies, Output for the three months amounted to 1.68 million troy ounces, or 52,228 kilograms, compared with about 1.99 million ounces in the previous quarter, On a Year-on-year basis, production was almost 17% lower, the Chamber of Mines said.
U.S.Economy:
Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke told an international monetary conference in Spain that further rate cuts were not likely because of rising inflation. He expects the U.S. economy to improve in the second half of 2008 and into 2009.
The U.S. Commerce Department said that factory orders were up 1.1% in April, much stronger than expected. Durable goods orders, however, were down .6% in April.
Currencies update:
Eurostat said that real GDP in the Euro area 15 was up .8% in the first quarter and up 2.2% from a year ago, up slightly from an earlier estimate. Also, an index of industrial producer prices was up 6.1% in April from a year ago, the most in seven years.
The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its interest rate unchanged at 7.25%, as expected. The June Australian dollar is steady.
MCX Gold June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 12048 If market breaches below 12048 may see prices to take further correction towards 11926 and 11782 However if it holds back above 12260 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 12358 and 12480
Recommendations–MCX Gold June: Sell at 12200 Target 12130 and 12050 Stoploss at 12260
MCX Silver July - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 23027 If market breaches below 23027 may see prices to take further correction towards 22713 and 22427 However if it holds back above 23627 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 23913 and 24227
Recommendations-MCX Silver July: Sell at 23410 Target 24210 and 22950 stoploss at 23555
MCXARUN
9994500540
basemetals intraday
Basemetals
04 June 2008 09:58:30
Base Metals June 04, 2008
Major Economic Data:
Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke told an international monetary conference in Spain that further rate cuts were not likely because of rising inflation. He expects the U.S. economy to improve in the second half of 2008 and into 2009.
The U.S. Commerce Department said that factory orders were up 1.1% in April, much stronger than expected. Factory orders for March were also revised higher, from a 1.3% to a 1.5% gain. Durable goods orders, however, were down .6% in April.
It's a tough time for the auto industry. U.S. vehicle sales in May were down 16% for Ford; 28% for General Motors; and 25% for Chryseler. Also, General Motors announced that they are closing four truck and SUV plants.
Eurostat said that real GDP in the Euro area 15 was up .8% in the first quarter and up 2.2% from a year ago, up slightly from an earlier estimate. Also, an index of industrial producer prices was up 6.1% in April from a year ago, the most in seven years.
The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its interest rate unchanged at 7.25%, as expected.
Copper
Copper fell for a third day in Asia on concern global demand may be waning and as gains by the U.S. dollar reduced investor demand for commodities. Shanghai copper dropped to a four-month low.
The metal fell yesterday after U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke warned commodity prices will ``level out'' as the slowing global economy reduces demand for raw materials. The dollar rose to a two-week high against the euro after Bernanke signaled the Fed is done cutting U.S. interest rates for now.
Gross domestic product in China, the fastest-growing major economy, expanded 11.9 percent last year and 10.6 percent in the first quarter of 2008.
Manufacturing growth in China eased in May, the CLSA China Purchasing Managers' Index showed on June 2. The gauge declined to a seasonally adjusted 54.7 last month from 55.4 in April, raising concern that the country's copper consumption for appliances and other goods may slow and lead to lower prices.
China's refined copper imports, the world's biggest, may have topped 100,000 metric tons in May for a seventh straight month even as high prices deterred buying and the economy showed signs of slowing.
Copper prices in London have rallied 18 percent this year, as demand from China and supply disruptions helped to shrink global stockpiles by more than a third. China's manufacturing growth slowed last month, raising concern that use of the metal for wires and pipes may decline.
China imported 127,977 tons of refined copper in April, up from 126,421 tons in March, according to revised data issued by the Beijing-based customs office on May 22. Preliminary trade data for May are scheduled for release early next week.
Global stockpiles of copper tracked by the LME dropped 38 percent this year to 122,900 tons as of yesterday, while Shanghai inventories climbed 85 percent to stand at 44,554 tons last week.
Mexico's biggest mining union may vote this week on whether to hold more strikes if the Labor Ministry doesn't officially recognize its leader's re-election.
Ivanhoe Mines Ltd., the developer of the Oyu Tolgoi copper and gold mine in Mongolia, is still talking with the government to secure an investment agreement, the company's founder said.
MCX Copper June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 333.1 If market breaches below 333.1 may see prices to take further correction towards 331.6 and 329.1 However if it holds back above 337.1 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 339.6 and 341.1
Recommendations-MCX Copper June: Sell at 335.50 Target 333 and 331 SL 337.80
Nickel
MCX Nickel June dropped towards the low of 937 yesterday following weakness in red metal, market closed at 951.50 with minor gains. Before it market rose towards the high of 970 following
BHP Billiton Ltd., the world's largest mining company, says the Nickel West unit and Mt. Newman iron ore project in Western Australia are producing as normal after an explosion at Apache Corp.'s plant yesterday threatened the natural gas supply.
OAO GMK Norilsk Nickel, the biggest producer of the metal, faces a weakening profit outlook as falling nickel prices add to concerns about a battle over control of the company, UralSib Financial Corp. said.
Toledo Mining Corp., the owner of nickel mines in the Philippines, said construction of a road at its Berong project may double capacity to 2 million metric tons of ore.
Nickel warehouse stock at LME, net change was -54 MT to 47940 MT
MCX Nickel June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 936 If market breaches below 936 may see prices to take further correction towards 920 and 903 However if it holds back above 969 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 986 and 1002
Recommendations: MCX Nickel June: Sell at 965 Target 945 and 930 SL 978
Zinc
MCX Zinc dropped yesterday following LME movement and LME; market was supported by decline in copper prices. Before it market rose towards the high of 85.45 and dropped to 82.30
Zinc warehouse stock at LME, net change was -500 MT to 144350 MT
MCX Zinc June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 81.7 If market breaches below 81.7 may see prices to take further correction towards 80.4 and 78.6 However if it holds back above 84.9 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 86.7 and 88.0
Recommendations- MCX Zinc June: Sell at 84.20 Target 82 and 81 SL 85.20
Lead
MCX Lead June traded strong as market was expecting a short covering from recent decline in prices. Market traded toward the high of 88.90, before it market dropped to low of 85.20 and closed at 87.90 with 2.73% gain.
Lead warehouse stock at LME, net change was 1300 MT to 68600 MT
MCX Lead June -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 89.5 levels. If market breaches 85.2 may see prices to take further upside towards 91.0 and 93.2 However if it holds back below 85.8 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 83.6 and 82.1
Recommendations –MCX Lead June: Buy at 86.50 Target 89 and 91 SL 84.80
Aluminium
Record energy prices and power failures from China to South Africa are leading to mounting concerns that aluminum supplies will be curtailed within five years as production costs increase, futures prices show. Aluminum for delivery in 2013 rose 5 percent in May on the London Metal Exchange, the most in three months. The $147 increase in the contacts to $3,110 a metric ton contrasts with a 0.9 percent gain in the cash market for immediate delivery.
Deutsche Bank AG raised its aluminum forecasts on March 28 from this year through 2012 by between 8 percent and 13 percent after oil surpassed $100 a barrel. Snowstorms and last month's earthquake curbed output in China, and South African power shortages delayed the start of a new smelter.
Energy accounts for about 40 percent of the cost of aluminium smelting, compared with 30 percent last year, according to Barclays Capital. Supply will expand at 4.5 percent this year, compared with 12 percent in 2007, according to a May 12 forecast by Citigroup Inc.
Aluminum demand is expanding 6 percent annually, so delays increase concern about supply through 2010, Barclays said. Six new smelters need to be built each year to meet demand, based on the average plant being able to produce 500,000 tons annually.
Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd., the country's largest producer of the metal, cut alumina prices by 16.7 percent to 3,500 yuan ($505) a metric ton effective from today.
Alum warehouse stock at LME, net change was -875 MT to 1074900 MT
MCX Aluminium June -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 124.0 levels. If market breaches 124.0 may see prices to take further upside towards 124.7 and 125.3 However if it holds back below 122.7 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 122.1 and 121.4
Recommendations–MCX Aluminium June: Buy at 123 Target 124.50 and 126 SL at 121.80
MCXARUN
9994500540
04 June 2008 09:58:30
Base Metals June 04, 2008
Major Economic Data:
Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke told an international monetary conference in Spain that further rate cuts were not likely because of rising inflation. He expects the U.S. economy to improve in the second half of 2008 and into 2009.
The U.S. Commerce Department said that factory orders were up 1.1% in April, much stronger than expected. Factory orders for March were also revised higher, from a 1.3% to a 1.5% gain. Durable goods orders, however, were down .6% in April.
It's a tough time for the auto industry. U.S. vehicle sales in May were down 16% for Ford; 28% for General Motors; and 25% for Chryseler. Also, General Motors announced that they are closing four truck and SUV plants.
Eurostat said that real GDP in the Euro area 15 was up .8% in the first quarter and up 2.2% from a year ago, up slightly from an earlier estimate. Also, an index of industrial producer prices was up 6.1% in April from a year ago, the most in seven years.
The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its interest rate unchanged at 7.25%, as expected.
Copper
Copper fell for a third day in Asia on concern global demand may be waning and as gains by the U.S. dollar reduced investor demand for commodities. Shanghai copper dropped to a four-month low.
The metal fell yesterday after U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke warned commodity prices will ``level out'' as the slowing global economy reduces demand for raw materials. The dollar rose to a two-week high against the euro after Bernanke signaled the Fed is done cutting U.S. interest rates for now.
Gross domestic product in China, the fastest-growing major economy, expanded 11.9 percent last year and 10.6 percent in the first quarter of 2008.
Manufacturing growth in China eased in May, the CLSA China Purchasing Managers' Index showed on June 2. The gauge declined to a seasonally adjusted 54.7 last month from 55.4 in April, raising concern that the country's copper consumption for appliances and other goods may slow and lead to lower prices.
China's refined copper imports, the world's biggest, may have topped 100,000 metric tons in May for a seventh straight month even as high prices deterred buying and the economy showed signs of slowing.
Copper prices in London have rallied 18 percent this year, as demand from China and supply disruptions helped to shrink global stockpiles by more than a third. China's manufacturing growth slowed last month, raising concern that use of the metal for wires and pipes may decline.
China imported 127,977 tons of refined copper in April, up from 126,421 tons in March, according to revised data issued by the Beijing-based customs office on May 22. Preliminary trade data for May are scheduled for release early next week.
Global stockpiles of copper tracked by the LME dropped 38 percent this year to 122,900 tons as of yesterday, while Shanghai inventories climbed 85 percent to stand at 44,554 tons last week.
Mexico's biggest mining union may vote this week on whether to hold more strikes if the Labor Ministry doesn't officially recognize its leader's re-election.
Ivanhoe Mines Ltd., the developer of the Oyu Tolgoi copper and gold mine in Mongolia, is still talking with the government to secure an investment agreement, the company's founder said.
MCX Copper June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 333.1 If market breaches below 333.1 may see prices to take further correction towards 331.6 and 329.1 However if it holds back above 337.1 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 339.6 and 341.1
Recommendations-MCX Copper June: Sell at 335.50 Target 333 and 331 SL 337.80
Nickel
MCX Nickel June dropped towards the low of 937 yesterday following weakness in red metal, market closed at 951.50 with minor gains. Before it market rose towards the high of 970 following
BHP Billiton Ltd., the world's largest mining company, says the Nickel West unit and Mt. Newman iron ore project in Western Australia are producing as normal after an explosion at Apache Corp.'s plant yesterday threatened the natural gas supply.
OAO GMK Norilsk Nickel, the biggest producer of the metal, faces a weakening profit outlook as falling nickel prices add to concerns about a battle over control of the company, UralSib Financial Corp. said.
Toledo Mining Corp., the owner of nickel mines in the Philippines, said construction of a road at its Berong project may double capacity to 2 million metric tons of ore.
Nickel warehouse stock at LME, net change was -54 MT to 47940 MT
MCX Nickel June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 936 If market breaches below 936 may see prices to take further correction towards 920 and 903 However if it holds back above 969 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 986 and 1002
Recommendations: MCX Nickel June: Sell at 965 Target 945 and 930 SL 978
Zinc
MCX Zinc dropped yesterday following LME movement and LME; market was supported by decline in copper prices. Before it market rose towards the high of 85.45 and dropped to 82.30
Zinc warehouse stock at LME, net change was -500 MT to 144350 MT
MCX Zinc June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 81.7 If market breaches below 81.7 may see prices to take further correction towards 80.4 and 78.6 However if it holds back above 84.9 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 86.7 and 88.0
Recommendations- MCX Zinc June: Sell at 84.20 Target 82 and 81 SL 85.20
Lead
MCX Lead June traded strong as market was expecting a short covering from recent decline in prices. Market traded toward the high of 88.90, before it market dropped to low of 85.20 and closed at 87.90 with 2.73% gain.
Lead warehouse stock at LME, net change was 1300 MT to 68600 MT
MCX Lead June -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 89.5 levels. If market breaches 85.2 may see prices to take further upside towards 91.0 and 93.2 However if it holds back below 85.8 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 83.6 and 82.1
Recommendations –MCX Lead June: Buy at 86.50 Target 89 and 91 SL 84.80
Aluminium
Record energy prices and power failures from China to South Africa are leading to mounting concerns that aluminum supplies will be curtailed within five years as production costs increase, futures prices show. Aluminum for delivery in 2013 rose 5 percent in May on the London Metal Exchange, the most in three months. The $147 increase in the contacts to $3,110 a metric ton contrasts with a 0.9 percent gain in the cash market for immediate delivery.
Deutsche Bank AG raised its aluminum forecasts on March 28 from this year through 2012 by between 8 percent and 13 percent after oil surpassed $100 a barrel. Snowstorms and last month's earthquake curbed output in China, and South African power shortages delayed the start of a new smelter.
Energy accounts for about 40 percent of the cost of aluminium smelting, compared with 30 percent last year, according to Barclays Capital. Supply will expand at 4.5 percent this year, compared with 12 percent in 2007, according to a May 12 forecast by Citigroup Inc.
Aluminum demand is expanding 6 percent annually, so delays increase concern about supply through 2010, Barclays said. Six new smelters need to be built each year to meet demand, based on the average plant being able to produce 500,000 tons annually.
Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd., the country's largest producer of the metal, cut alumina prices by 16.7 percent to 3,500 yuan ($505) a metric ton effective from today.
Alum warehouse stock at LME, net change was -875 MT to 1074900 MT
MCX Aluminium June -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 124.0 levels. If market breaches 124.0 may see prices to take further upside towards 124.7 and 125.3 However if it holds back below 122.7 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 122.1 and 121.4
Recommendations–MCX Aluminium June: Buy at 123 Target 124.50 and 126 SL at 121.80
MCXARUN
9994500540
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
I am starting to enjoy the frankness of Fed chairman Ben Bernanke as he said that the Fed is paying close attention to the foreign exchange markets and the decline of the dollar, because of its implications for U.S. growth and inflation. The downward pressures on the dollar has contributed to the unwelcome rise in import prices and consumer price inflation. In January he had explicitly admitted that the US is nearing recession. It’s too early to comment whether the US dollar has bottomed out for the rest of the year. We need to look at the second round effects of higher food and energy prices on US consumer spending as well as global consumer spending. The US dollar will gain if and only if the US economy shows signs of stabilisation. A stable interest rate regime will promote carry trade and could be positive for stock markets till September.
Commodities can fall in the short term due to liquidation of long positions by fund managers after the Bernanke statement. In the medium term to long term, fundamentals will take over and a new high should be formed. Commodities will be delinked from the US dollar and movement in other financial instruments. The only risk to commodity prices in the long term is a sustained global slowdown.
SILVER -- JULY FUTURE
Silver has to break $1713 else it will trade in a wider $1620-$1713 zone. A break of $1713 will result in $1754 and $1780.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Commodities can fall in the short term due to liquidation of long positions by fund managers after the Bernanke statement. In the medium term to long term, fundamentals will take over and a new high should be formed. Commodities will be delinked from the US dollar and movement in other financial instruments. The only risk to commodity prices in the long term is a sustained global slowdown.
SILVER -- JULY FUTURE
Silver has to break $1713 else it will trade in a wider $1620-$1713 zone. A break of $1713 will result in $1754 and $1780.
MCXARUN
9994500540
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