Wednesday, December 19, 2007

intraday 19/12/07

Technicals – MCX (Intra day calls)
CRUDE OIL (January) BULLISH ABOVE 3549 BEARISH BELOW 3534

GOLD (February) BULLISH ABOVE 10267 BEARISH BELOW 10227

SILVER (March) BULLISH ABOVE 18698 BEARISH BELOW 18618

COPPER (February) BULLISH ABOVE 255.6 BEARISH BELOW 255

LEAD (December) BULLISH ABOVE 97.35 BEARISH BELOW 96.95

NICKEL (December) BULLISH ABOVE 1030.5 BEARISH BELOW 1026.5

ZINC (December) BULLISH ABOVE 91.35 BEARISH BELOW 90.95

Base Metals

Base Metals


Copper prices declined in Asia as a rout in global equities raised concern that slower economic growth may crimp demand for metals.

Housing starts in the U.S. probably fell to a 14-year low in November, according to the median estimate of 70 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Permits, an indicator of future construction, dropped to a 1.15 million rate from 1.17 million, the survey said.

The metal, which tracks the global economy, is heading for the smallest gain in six years. Industrial metals prices have probably peaked and may decline over the next 12 to 18 months, Fitch Ratings said in a report published yesterday.

Mining stocks including Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., the world's second-largest copper producer, fell the most in almost a month yesterday.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost as much as 1.1 percent, and stood little changed at 152.18 as of 3:36 p.m. in Singapore, set for its lowest close since Sept. 18. London Metal Exchange copper, the global benchmark, fell to a nine-month low today at $6,335 a metric ton.

From January through October, global zinc output rose 7.6 percent to 9.45 million tons, according to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group. Zinc demand increased to 9.5 million tons, from 9.22 million tons a year earlier, the Lisbon-based group said yesterday.

copper

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from over bought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 18-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Copper Feb: buy at 254-254.5 for the target of 256.40, 258.70 and 260 with stop loss at 252.00



MCX Zinc

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are increasing from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 18-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Zinc Dec: buy at 89.50-90.00 for the target of 91.00 and 92.65 with stop loss at 88.00

MCX Nickel Dec
Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 18-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Nickel Dec: buy at 1020-25 for the target of 1037 and 1050 with stop loss at 1010

MCX Lead Dec
Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are on hold from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 18-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Lead Dec: buy at 96.50-97.00 for the target of 99.00 and 100.70 with stop loss at 95.20

MCXARUN

Bullion



Major Headline:

Gold recouped all the earlier losses of the session to close with significant gains as dollar eased after initial firmness, firmness in crude oil prices however supported the gains. Gold rose the most in a week on speculation that energy and food costs will accelerate, boosting the appeal of the metal as a hedge against inflation. Silver also gained.

Crude oil, heating oil and natural gas all rose today, after wheat and rice reached records yesterday. Some investors buy gold to hedge against rising consumer prices. Before today, gold gained 25 percent this year, while the UBS Bloomberg Constant Maturity Commodity Index climbed 19 percent.

Corn traded near a nine-month high and soybeans near the highest in 34 years on speculation that U.S. demand for fuel made from grain and oilseeds will surge. Wheat rose above $10 a bushel yesterday for the first time. Some investors buy gold, which fell in the past three days, to hedge against rising consumer prices.

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from over bought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 18-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Gold Feb: Sell at 10330-350 for the target of 10240 and 10140 with stop loss at 10400

MCX Silver
Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from over bought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 18-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Silver March: Sell at 18880-930 for the target of 18650 and 18450 with stop loss at 19070

currency

Euro-FX:

The euro is trading higher this morning reversing the weaker tone seen during the prior session. Trend indicators are indicating a bearish market. However the overall strength of the trend, as indicated by the ADX, is weak and should be watched as a result. Momentum readings are also in bearish territory.

TREND INDICATORS:

Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session indicating further weakness. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bearish bias.

Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session indicating further weakness. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bearish bias.

Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. However, despite prices trading below the moving average line, the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session. If prices trade above the moving average then the trend will be clearly established as up. However, this weakness in the price will need to be watched. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a weak bullish bias.

ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is falling, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. However, the weak ADX indicates that the current trend is deteriorating and may possibly reverse. Look for choppiness ahead.

MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bearish territory.

RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 39.32). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 39.32 the market is somewhat oversold. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of strength from this indicator before getting too bullish here.

VOLATILITY INDICATORS:

Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating oversold prices. Volatility also appears to be increasing, as evidenced by a larger distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions. The market is oversold and appears to be finding some support near recent lows. Look for a potential bottom in this area.

RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:

1.4978 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
1.4977 - Highest High in last 50-Days
1.4837 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
1.4774 - Highest High in last 10-Days
1.4686 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
1.4594 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
1.4554 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
1.4530 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
1.4432 - High
1.4427 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
1.4427 - Last Price
1.4413 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
1.4379 - Low
1.4342 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
1.4176 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
1.4033 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
1.3850 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average

Japanese Yen:

Japanese Yen futures at the CME are weaker this morning reversing the firmer tone seen during the prior session. Trend indicators are indicating a bearish market. However the overall strength of the trend, as indicated by the ADX, is weak and should be watched as a result. Momentum readings are also in bearish territory.

TREND INDICATORS:

Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session indicating further weakness. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bearish bias.

Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session indicating further weakness. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bearish bias.

Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is falling, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. However, the weak ADX indicates that the current trend is deteriorating and may possibly reverse. Look for choppiness ahead.

MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bearish territory.

RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 44.86). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 44.86 the market is somewhat oversold. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of strength from this indicator before getting too bullish here.

VOLATILITY INDICATORS:

Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating oversold prices. Volatility also appears to be increasing, as evidenced by a larger distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions. Despite this oversold condition the market may become more oversold before turning higher. As a result, the market will look for additional strength in prices before turning bullish on this indicator.

RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:

0.9350 - Highest High in last 50-Days
0.9298 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
0.9186 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
0.9150 - Highest High in last 10-Days
0.9072 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
0.8995 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
0.8963 - High
0.8962 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
0.8927 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
0.8920 - Last Price
0.8917 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
0.8900 - Low
0.8895 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
0.8850 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
0.8791 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
0.8580 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
0.8529 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days

TradeSignals 2007.

copper

Copper trade on ACCESS is showing weaker prices in recent activity extending the prior sessions weaker close. Trend indicators are indicating a bearish market and the overall strength of the trend is strong, as indicated by the ADX. Momentum readings are also in bearish territory. Also, the market just put in a 50-Day new low here, indicating further weakness. More lows are likely here.

TREND INDICATORS:

Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session indicating further weakness. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bearish bias.

Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session indicating further weakness. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bearish bias.

Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session indicating further weakness. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bearish bias.

ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is rising, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is down. As the ADX is rising this indicates that the current trend is strong and should remain intact. Look for the current trend to continue.

MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bearish territory. Also, the market just put in a 50-Day new low here, indicating further weakness. More lows are likely here.

RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 35.51). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 35.51 the market is somewhat oversold, but given the 50-Day new low here, greater oversold levels are likely.

VOLATILITY INDICATORS:

Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating oversold prices. Despite this oversold condition the market may become more oversold before turning higher. As a result, the market will look for additional strength in prices before turning bullish on this indicator.

RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:

3.7380 - Highest High in last 50-Days
3.3762 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
3.3446 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
3.2432 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
3.1809 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
3.1550 - Highest High in last 10-Days
3.1022 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
3.0408 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
3.0120 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
2.9447 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
2.9087 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
2.8970 - High
2.8805 - Last Price
2.8660 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
2.8645 - Low
2.8530 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
2.8530 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days

TradeSignals 2007.

energy signal

Crude Oil:

Front month crude oil is higher in ACCESS trade this morning reversing the weaker tone seen during the prior session. Trend indicators have moved from a bearish to a neutral price pattern. MACD has also issued a bullish signal but given the neutral bias of the market this signal should be viewed with caution.

TREND INDICATORS:

Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. However, even though prices are trading below the moving average, the moving average slope is up from the previous session. Should prices continue lower the moving average will eventually follow and then the down trend will be more clearly established. However, this strength in the moving average will need to be watched. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a weak bearish bias.

Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices cross above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is falling, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. However, the weak ADX indicates that the current trend is deteriorating and may possibly reverse. Look for choppiness ahead.

MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: MACD has issued a bullish signal, as the signal line has crossed above the True MACD. With the current long term trend, based on a 50 day simple moving average, to the upside, this suggests that prices will continue to rise for a time.

RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 51.32). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 51.32 the market is somewhat overbought. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of weakness from this indicator before getting too bearish here.

VOLATILITY INDICATORS:

Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Volatility also appears to be decreasing, as evidenced by a smaller distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions.

RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:

99.29 - Highest High in last 50-Days
98.57 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
95.21 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
94.85 - Highest High in last 10-Days
92.39 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
92.25 - High
91.94 - Last Price
91.42 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
91.42 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
91.01 - Low
90.48 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
88.49 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
85.82 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
85.13 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
83.85 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
79.72 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
75.06 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average

Heating Oil:

Heating Oil contracts are higher this morning reversing the weaker tone seen during the prior session. Trend indicators are showing the market in a neutral price pattern at present. MACD has also issued a bullish signal but given the neutral bias of the market this signal should be viewed with caution.

TREND INDICATORS:

Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is falling, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. However, the weak ADX indicates that the current trend is deteriorating and may possibly reverse. Look for choppiness ahead.

MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: MACD has issued a bullish signal, as the signal line has crossed above the True MACD. With the current long term trend, based on a 50 day simple moving average, to the upside, this suggests that prices will continue to rise for a time.

RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 56.72). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 56.72 the market is somewhat overbought. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of weakness from this indicator before getting too bearish here.

VOLATILITY INDICATORS:

Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Despite this overbought condition the market may become more overbought before turning lower. As a result, the market will look for additional weakening in prices before turning bearish on this indicator.

RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:

2.7353 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
2.7272 - Highest High in last 50-Days
2.6686 - Highest High in last 10-Days
2.6614 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
2.6200 - High
2.6181 - Last Price
2.6080 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
2.5979 - Low
2.5906 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
2.5621 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
2.5137 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
2.5103 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
2.4450 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
2.4398 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
2.3075 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
2.1737 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
2.1128 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average

RBOB Gasoline:

RBOB Gasoline contracts are higher this morning reversing the weaker tone seen during the prior session. Trend indicators have moved from a bearish to a neutral price pattern.

TREND INDICATORS:

Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices cross above this moving average. Furthermore the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is falling, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. However, the weak ADX indicates that the current trend is deteriorating and may possibly reverse. Look for choppiness ahead.

MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory.

RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 53.54). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 53.54 the market is somewhat overbought. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of weakness from this indicator before getting too bearish here.

VOLATILITY INDICATORS:

Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Volatility also appears to be decreasing, as evidenced by a smaller distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions.

RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:

2.4844 - Highest High in last 50-Days
2.4830 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
2.4198 - Highest High in last 10-Days
2.4058 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
2.3560 - High
2.3560 - Last Price
2.3444 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
2.3395 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
2.3303 - Low
2.3149 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
2.2994 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
2.2515 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
2.1875 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
2.1743 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
2.1664 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
2.1528 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
1.9850 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days

Natural Gas:

Natural Gas contracts are higher this morning extending the prior sessions gains. Trend indicators are indicating a bearish market. However the overall strength of the trend, as indicated by the ADX, is weak and should be watched as a result. Momentum readings are also bearish. However, the recent upturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term rally over the next few days and should be watched.

TREND INDICATORS:

Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session indicating further weakness. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bearish bias.

Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session indicating further weakness. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bearish bias.

Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. However, even though prices are trading below the moving average, the moving average slope is up from the previous session. Should prices continue lower the moving average will eventually follow and then the down trend will be more clearly established. However, this strength in the moving average will need to be watched. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a weak bearish bias.

ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is falling, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is down. However, the weak ADX indicates that the current trend is deteriorating and may possibly reverse. Look for a choppiness ahead.

MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bearish territory. However, the recent upturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term rally over the next few days.

RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 42.40). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 42.40 the market is somewhat oversold. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of strength from this indicator before getting too bullish here.

VOLATILITY INDICATORS:

Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating oversold prices. The market is oversold and appears to be gaining strength. Look for a potential bottom in this area.

RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:

8.712 - Highest High in last 50-Days
7.808 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
7.565 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
7.529 - Highest High in last 10-Days
7.495 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
7.408 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
7.151 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
7.123 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
7.079 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
7.061 - Last Price
7.061 - High
7.040 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
7.035 - Low
6.914 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
6.914 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
6.836 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
6.640 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days

TradeSignals 2007.

precious metals

COMEX Gold:

Gold trading is higher in ACCESS trade this morning extending the prior sessions gains. Trend indicators have moved from a bullish to a neutral price pattern.

TREND INDICATORS:

Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. Furthermore the markets trend has changed direction since the previous session. The slope of the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session indicating weakness. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bearish bias.

Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. However, even though prices are trading below the moving average, the moving average slope is up from the previous session. Should prices continue lower the moving average will eventually follow and then the down trend will be more clearly established. However, this strength in the moving average will need to be watched. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a weak bearish bias.

Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is falling, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. However, the weak ADX indicates that the current trend is deteriorating and may possibly reverse. Look for choppiness ahead.


MOMENTUM INDICATORS:

MACD: The MACD is in bearish territory. However, the recent upturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term rally over the next few days.

RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 49.78). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 49.78 the market is somewhat oversold. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of strength from this indicator before getting too bullish here.

VOLATILITY INDICATORS:

Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating oversold prices. Volatility also appears to be decreasing, as evidenced by a smaller distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions. The market is oversold and appears to be finding some support near recent lows. Look for a potential bottom in this area.

RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:

848.00 - Highest High in last 50-Days
830.87 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
822.80 - Highest High in last 10-Days
819.46 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
806.38 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
804.78 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
802.90 - High
802.10 - Last Price
799.80 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
796.65 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
795.43 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
794.70 - Low
789.60 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
785.24 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
749.31 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
742.80 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
709.21 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average


Platinum:

Platinum is higher in ACCESS trade this morning extending the prior sessions gains. Trend indicators are indicating a bullish market and the overall strength of the trend is strong, as indicated by the ADX. Momentum readings are also in bullish territory. Also, the market just made a 50-Day new high here, indicating further strength. Look for more new highs.

TREND INDICATORS:

Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is rising, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. As the ADX is rising it indicates that the current trend is strong and should remain intact. Look for the current trend to continue.


MOMENTUM INDICATORS:

MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory. Also, the market just made a 50-Day new high here, indicating further strength. Look for more new highs.

RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 66.25). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 66.25 the market is somewhat overbought, but given the 50-Day new high here, greater overbought levels are likely.

VOLATILITY INDICATORS:

Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Volatility also appears to be increasing, as evidenced by a larger distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions. Despite this overbought condition the market may become more overbought before turning lower. Also, given that we posted a 50-Day new high, the chance for further bullish momentum is higher. As a result, the market will look for additional weakening in prices before turning bearish on this indicator.

RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:

1514.30 - High
1514.30 - Highest High in last 50-Days
1514.30 - Highest High in last 10-Days
1509.90 - Last Price
1503.28 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
1497.57 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
1485.91 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
1485.00 - Low
1477.84 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
1464.89 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
1454.50 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
1453.53 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
1451.17 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
1433.80 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
1378.24 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
1376.00 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
1336.05 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average


COMEX Silver:

Silver futures are higher this morning reversing the weaker tone seen during the prior session. Trend indicators are indicating a bearish market and the overall strength of the trend is strong, as indicated by the ADX. Momentum readings are also in bearish territory.

TREND INDICATORS:

Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session indicating further weakness. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bearish bias.

Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session indicating further weakness. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bearish bias.

Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. However, despite prices trading below the moving average line, the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session. If prices trade above the moving average then the trend will be clearly established as up. However, this weakness in the price will need to be watched. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a weak bullish bias.

ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is rising, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. As the ADX is rising it indicates that the current trend is strong and should remain intact. Look for the current trend to continue.


MOMENTUM INDICATORS:

MACD: The MACD is in bearish territory.

RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 43.45). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 43.45 the market is somewhat oversold. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of strength from this indicator before getting too bullish here.

VOLATILITY INDICATORS:

Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating oversold prices. Volatility also appears to be increasing, as evidenced by a larger distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions. The market is oversold and appears to be finding some support near recent lows. Look for a potential bottom in this area.

RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:

16.275 - Highest High in last 50-Days
15.121 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
14.975 - Highest High in last 10-Days
14.812 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
14.511 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
14.443 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
14.401 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
14.194 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
14.160 - High
14.105 - Last Price
14.023 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
13.930 - Low
13.885 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
13.740 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
13.603 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
13.446 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
13.325 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days


TradeSignals 2007.

OUT LOOK

February gold closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of last week's decline but remains below the 20-day moving
average crossing at 808.70. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and
the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If February extends last week's decline,
November's low crossing at 780.40 is the next downside target. Closes above last Wednesday's high crossing at 822.80 would
renew the rally off November's low. From a broad perspective, February gold needs to close above 855.00 or below 780.40 to
confirm a breakout of the late-fall trading range and point the direction of the next trending move. First resistance is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 808.70 then last Wednesday's high crossing at 822.80. First support is Monday's low crossing at
789.60 then the reaction low crossing at 783.00.

March silver closed higher on Tuesday and as it consolidated some of last week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage
for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices
are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 13.960 would open the door for a possible test of October's
low crossing at 13.360 later this winter. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.514 would signal that a short-
term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.514 then last Tuesday's high crossing at
14.975. First support is Monday's low crossing at 13.740 then October's low crossing at 13.360.

anuary crude oil closed slightly higher on Tuesday and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday.
Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January
renews last week's rally, the reaction high crossing at .9768 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average
crossing at 90.32 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. A close below the reaction low crossing at .8582
would renew the decline off November's high. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 91.76. Second
resistance is today's high crossing at 92.88. First support is today's low crossing at 88.88 then the 38% retracement level of this
year's rally crossing at .8741.

January Henry natural gas closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of last week's decline but remains below the 10-
day moving average crossing at 7.158. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday.
Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the decline
off November's high, weekly support crossing at 6.801 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average
crossing at 7.387 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average
crossing at 7.158 then the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.387. First support is Monday's low crossing at 6.914 then
weekly support crossing at 6.801.

GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS

Geopolitical risk once again on the surface after Turkish troops entered northern Iraq. This is minor news at the moment as Turkey has a history of entering Iraq but it remains to be seen as to how long Turkish troops remain in Iraq. Markets have more or less ignored this news as they are pre-occupied with prospects of US economy in 2008 and liquidity and higher volatility resulting in medium term traders becoming day traders.

Physical demand from India and China will rise in the first quarter of 2008. Chinese new year demand around mid February should result in higher demand. Chinese retail investors are yet to diversify into gold in a big way, away from equities. Once they start to diversify their investments into gold away from equities, gold demand will zoom in China further luring buyers at lower levels

Gold, silver and copper fell after London PM fixing yesterday. It will be another volatile day with US weekly crude oil inventories dictating crude oil as well as precious metals in the Comex session. The crude oil market will be very sensitive to US crude oil inventories for the rest of the week.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE

As long as crude oil holds $90-$90.40 downside will be limited and it will target $94-$95.50 once again. Falls below $90 then $87.40 is the target. Investors should sell April/May futures on rise with a price target of $78.