long view calls

GOLD
LIKELY TO TEST 11000 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 11150, WHILE CLOSE ABV 12300-12400 UPRALLY AGAIN TEST 12700-800 ATLEAST(JUNE)

COPPER
LIKELY TO TEST 320 UPTO 314 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 330-326.5, WHILE CLOSE ABOVE 361.25 UPRALLY TEST 370-375 ATLEAST(JUNE)

NAT GAS
LIKELY TO TEST 475-480 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 460, WHILE CLOSE BELOW 426.5-423 DOWN RALLY AGAIN TEST 415-10 ATLEAST(MAY)

SPOT GOLD INTERNATIONAL
LIKELY TO TEST $ 830 - 815 UPTO $ 800 WITH ANY BREAK & SUSTAIN CLOSE BELOW $ 845, WHILE CLOSE ABOVE $ 953-955 TEST $ 970-75 UPTO $ 990-1000 IN COMING DAYS

SPOT SILVER INTERNATIONAL
LIKELY TO $ 15.70/15.40 UPTO $ 15.25 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW $ 15.95, WHILE CLOSE ABOVE $ 18.75 UPRALLY TEST $ 19.25-30 UPTO $ 19.90 IN COMING DAYS

NICKEL
LIKELY TO TEST 1100-1085 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 1120, WHILE CLOSE ABOVE 1190-1215 UPRALLY AGAIN(MAY)

SILVER
LIKELY TO TEST 21000 UPTO 20800 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 1575-500, ONLY CLOSE ABOVE 22825 SOME UPSIDE AGAIN(JULY)

ALUMINUM
LIKELY TO TEST 110-108 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 113, WHILE CLOSE ABOVE 124 LIKELY TO TEST 128-130 ATLEAST


MCXARUN
9994500540

safe trade calls

GOLD

book profit on buy abv 11375, for the day buy only abv 11525 S/L 11510 and T/p 11550/600/11650 where good resist seen again OR sell below 11360-330 S/L 11380 and T/p 11300-250/11200-11150/100 upto 11025 (any time close above 11650/12000/12300-400/13100/ 13425 bullish while close below 11000-10925 bearish for medium term)

SILVER

book profit on buy abv 22200, for the day buy only abv 22550 S/L 22475 and T/p 22600-650/750-800 where good resist seen again OR sell below 22250-240 S/L 22310 and T/p 22150/22050/ sustain below test 21950/21800/21725-650/21575/down rally (any time close below 21575-500/20400/19250/18775 bearish rally while close above 22825/ 23600/24500/26300/27700 bullish for medium term)

CRUDE

for the day buy only abv 4875 S/L 4855 and T/p 4900-4930 atleast upto 4970 OR buy ard 4755-62 S/L 4750 and T/p 4790-4825, only sustain below 4740-4700 down rally again (now crude need to close above 4875 for bullish rally while close below 4695/4475/4365/ 4260/4080/3960-3905 bearish for medium term)

COPPER

book profit on buy abv 343.5-344, for the day sell only below 342.5 S/L 344 and T/p 341-40/sustain below test 335-332 atleast OR buy only abv 353.5 S/L 351.75 and T/p 356-358.5 where resist seen again (upside strong rally only on close above 361.5 while close below 340/330-326.5/310 bearish for medium term)

MCXARUN
9994500540

comex gold outlook

Gold prices continued recovery following last week’s sharp losses, supported by a rally in oil prices to a fresh high above $120 a barrel and weakness in the dollar.



International spot gold traded in the range $857.55 - $874.05 and last quoted at $873.05 ($855.45).



Dollar continued to ease despite an unexpectedly strong data from the US Service sector. According to data released yesterday, the ISM's non-manufacturing index rose to 52.0% in April from 49.6% in March.



The greenback was affected by the Federal Reserve’s senior loan officer survey, which found Consumers and businesses found it harder to borrow money over the past three months, which indicates that the credit crunch might be still worsening despite the Fed’s grave efforts.



The Fed on Wednesday cut its overnight lending rate by 25 basis points to 2 percent and signaled that its next move would depend on developments in financial markets and the economy. The Feds signal boosted the optimism of the traders in the currency market. Since mid-September, the US central bank has slashed the fed funds rate target by 3.25 percentage points to shore up an economy.



The Conference Board’s April consumer confidence index had descended to 62.3 from an upwardly revised reading of 65.9 in March.



Also the University of Michigan/Reuters' consumer sentiment index declined to 62.6 in April from 69.5 in March.



The US Commerce Department had revealed that the nation's trade deficit expanded unexpectedly by 5.7% to $62.3 billion in February.



Oil prices crossed above $120 a barrel yesterday, for the first time ever, as geo-political tensions especially in Nigeria, where a militant attack disrupted oil production in facilities belonging to Anglo-Dutch oil group Royal Dutch Shell, added to supply jitters.



Crude oil June in NYMEX traded as high as $120.23 and closed at $120.20 ($116.32).



Medium term outlook (Spot Gold)

Weak below $881; supports are $872, $861, $849, $835, $817, $800; resistances $896, $906, $926.



Last day DGCX Gold June traded in the range $864.00 – $875.50 and closed at $875.10 ($858.90).

DGCX Gold June


TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)

GOLD (June) - Bullish above $ 874.80; bearish below $ 870.00


MCXARUN
9994500540

important charts (bullion)

click the pics to see the large view







MCXARUN
9994500540

energy intraday

Crude oil prices crept higher Monday following a weekend attack on a Nigerian oil installation, but the strengthening U.S. dollar limited the market's gains. Four months after first hitting triple digits, the price of oil breached $120 a barrel Monday for the first time in a rally of unexpected intensity.

Supply issues in Nigeria and tensions between Iran and the West are at play here, Royal Dutch Shell was forced to shut more of its production in Nigeria after a militant attack on Saturday on a flow station in the oil-rich Niger Delta, where local militants have stepped up a campaign of violence.

A few oil delivery lines are affected and some oil has spilled into the environment, a Shell spokesman said. Recent violence has already cut 164,000 barrels per day (bpd) of Shell production in Nigeria

In the Middle East, Iran's Foreign Ministry said on Monday it would not consider any incentives offered by world powers that violated Tehran nuclear rights, ruling out a key demand that it halt uranium enrichment program.

The comments come just three days after major powers said they would make a new offer to convince the Islamic Republic to halt its nuclear plans, a process which the West believes Tehran wants to master so that it can build nuclear weapons.

Renewed clashes between Turkey and Kurdish rebels in northern Iraq also lent support to oil prices. The Turkish army said on Saturday that it killed more than 150 Kurdish PKK fighters in air strikes in northern Iraq last week, but the rebel group denied this and security forces in the region also expressed scepticism

The dollar eased marginally on Monday, but held on to most of last week's gains, supported by expectations the Federal Reserve will not need to cut interest rates again to cushion the economy from the credit crisis.

Natural gas futures continued to rise Monday, climbing with higher crude oil prices and forecasts of below-normal temperatures in the Great Lakes and Midwest over the next two weeks.



The National Weather Service was predicting below-normal temperatures across the entire upper half of the continental U.S., particularly in the Great Lakes region, from May 10 to May 14. Colder-than-normal temperatures were also expected in the northern half of the U.S. from May 12 to May 18.



MCX Crude Oil May (Daily Chart)

Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 4917 levels. If market breaches 4917 may see prices to take further upside towards 4979 and 5087 however if it holds back below 4747 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 4639 and 4577

Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil May: Buy at 4820 Target 4895 and 4965 Stop loss 4775



MCX Natural gas May (Daily Chart)

Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 457.90 levels. If market breaches 457.90 may see prices to take further upside towards 462.90 and 472.60 however if it holds back below 443.20 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 433.50 and 428.50

Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas May: Buy at 449 Target 457 and 463 Stop loss at 443

MCXARUN
9994500540

basemetals intreaday

Copper

Copper soared to a record inNew York, topping $4.26 a pound, as contract workers inChile, the world's largest producer of the metal, extended a strike, disrupting supplies. MCX Copper May traded as high as 361.20 (+6%) on Strike News despite the fact that LME remain closed for the day.

A union atChile's state-owned Codelco said the company's second-largest mine remains closed today. The strike that began on April 16 has disrupted output at three mines.

Before today, copper had jumped 26 percent this year as a slumping dollar boosted demand for commodities as a hedge against inflation. Falling copper inventories and labor unrest also spurred concerns that supplies will trail demand.

London Metal Exchange, the world's largest market for industrial metals, was closed today for a public holiday

MCX Copper June - Technical Outlook:

The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 360.8 levels. If market breaches 360.8 may see prices to take further upside towards 371.0 and 380.8, however if it holds back below 340.9 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 331.1 and 320.9

Recommendations-MCX Copper June: Buy at 346-347 Target 355 and 360 SL 342



Nickel

MCX Nickel traded volatile following movement in Copper, market traded as high as 1180, while LME remain closed for public holiday.

MCX Nickel May -Technical Outlook:

The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 1180.5 levels. If market breaches 1180.5 may see prices to take further upside towards 1196.5 and 1213.0, however if it holds back below 1148.0 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 1131.5 and 1115.5

Recommendations:MCX Nickel May: Buy at 1155 Target 1168 and 1182 SL 1139

Zinc

MCX Zinc May traded volatile in tight range of 89.50-92, while Lme remained closed for the day. Market mostly followed Copper, Crude Oil and Gold.

Refined zinc prices may climb by more than 50 percent in the next five years as growth in mine supply slows and leads to a global shortage of the metal used to galvanize steel.

MCX Zinc May -Technical Outlook:

The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 91.8 levels. If market breaches 91.8 may see prices to take further upside towards 93.2 and 94.3 however if it holds back below 89.3 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 88.2 and 86.8

Recommendations-MCX Zinc May: Sell at 91.30 Target 89.60 and 88 Stop loss at 92.40



Lead

Mcx Lead mostly traded up following other base metals, market-traded volatile in range of 103.75 –107 closed with minor gains.

MCX Lead May -Technical outlook:

The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 103.7 If market breaches below 103.7 may see prices to take further correction towards 102.1 and 100.5, However if it holds back above 107.0 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 108.6 and 110.2

Recommendations –MCX Lead May: Sell at 105.20 Target 103 and 102 SL 106.10



Aluminium

MCX Aluminium May traded positive following gains in Copper and Nickel, while LME remained closed for the day on public holiday.

MCX Aluminium May traded in range of 117 – 118.65, closed with minor gains.

MCX Aluminium May -Technical outlook:

The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 118.8 levels. If market breaches 118.8 may see prices to take further upside towards 119.6 and 120.5, however if it holds back below 117.2 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 116.3 and 115.5

Recommendations–MCX Aluminium May: Buy at 117.80-118 Target 119.50 and 121 SL 117.10

MCXARUN
9994500540

bullion intrday

Gold rose, rebounding from a third straight weekly loss, as the dollar weakened against the euro. And the record oil prices supporting the the bullion prices, the euro rose as much as 0.5 percent after sliding 1.3 percent against the U.S. currency last week



Gold Field's South Deep mine remains closed after nine people died there in an accident on Thursday. Safety inspectors are expected to announce today whether the mine is safe enough to continue operations



Goldcorp Inc., the world's second- largest gold producer by market value, said first-quarter net income raised to $229.5 million, or 32 cents a share.



India's gold imports in April almost halved from a year ago, the seventh month of decline, as high prices curbed demand from jewelers and retail investors in the world's biggest consumer of the precious metal. Purchases totaled 32 metric tons, compared with 62 tons a year ago, according to provisional data compiled by the Bombay Bullion Association Ltd.,



Kazakhstan, Central Asia's largest oil producer, increased foreign-currency Reserves rose by $1.46 billion to $20.7 billion last month and the value of gold held by the bank fell by $150.5 million to $1.88 billion in April from a month before, as the metal's price dropped 7.4 percent on international markets



China has 15,000 to 20,000 metric tons of proven underground gold deposits, the world's seventh-biggest, Easily mined deposits total 4,634 tons the official Xinhua News Agency reported, citing Hou Huimin, vice chairman of the China Gold Association.



According to reports, China has made breakthrough in mining technology for low-grade ore. At present, China has a complete gold industry chain ranging from exploration, extraction, processing to smelter. Some of the technologies have reached the international advanced level. Over the past 30 years, China has built more than 330 gold mines, mining, with daily ore election reaching 110,000 tons

U.S. Economy:

The Institute of Supply Management's U.S. index of services increased from 49.6 to 52.0 in April, stronger than expected

The Federal Reserve announced that it was acting in coordination with the ECB to expand credit and will increase the emergency reserves it offer to banks to $150 billion in May.

Currencies update:

The Canadian dollar rose from a three- week low as the country's commodity exports gained, boosting the currency's appeal.Canada’s dollar strengthened against 10 of the 16 most actively traded currencies amid gold and crude oil price increases. Commodities account for about half ofCanada's exports.

The Australian andNew Zealand dollars rose as speculation theU.S. economy will avoid a recession bolstered prices for commodities that are key to the nations' export earnings.

MCX Gold June (Daily Chart)

Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 11520 levels. If market breaches 11520 may see prices to take further upside towards 11585 and 11660 however if it holds back below 11361 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 11271 and 11223

Recommendations–MCX Gold June: Buy a t11420 Target11490 and 11560 Stoploss at11370



MCX Silver July (Daily Chart)

Technical Outlook: The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 22583 levels. If market breaches 22583 may see prices to take further upside towards 22727 and 22928 however if it holds back below 22238 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 22037 and 21893

Recommendations-MCX Silver July: Buy at 22360 Target 22510 and 22650 Stop loss at 22210


MCXARUN
9994500540

GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS

Gold will be caught between long term investors who continue to invest in dips with a price target of $1100 to $1300 over the next two to three years and short term bears who are trying to ensure that gold tests $800 and then rises. The downside risk for gold is limited to ten percent to twenty percent from the current prices in the next three to six months. Physical demand for gold will continue to rise unless gold has a sustained fall below $800.

Gold is caught between crude oil and the US dollar. Unless the US dollar has sustained gains and the US economy shows stability, gains in the dollar could well be short lived. Technically the US dollar has room for more gains and gold has more room to fall. Ever since the US sub prime crisis began in August 2007, gold has benefited as an alternate investment (apart from being an inflation hedge). If global equities continues to rise some of the investment which moved away from equities into gold will move back into equities. Further soft commodities and energies have given greater returns than gold. These commodities will give competition to gold in search for alternate investments.

If the US economy recovers then crude oil will rise and test $125 in the short term. Asian demand will remain high. Global central banks have been adding liquidity to the money markets; if every thing was okay then they would not add liquidity. Some under reporting is there. Base metals will be volatile as higher copper prices have forced buyers to reduce inventories. Fundamentally zinc has room for more losses but technically at lower prices the risk to return ratio switches in favor of the buyer.

COPPER -- JULY FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $404.0

Copper has to close below $369 for three to four consecutive days to be in a short term bear phase. LME copper (3 months) has to fall below $7950-$8000 to be in short term bear phase. My contrarian view on copper is that if copper fails to break $410 in May, it will fall to $346 and maybe even $326.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $115.90.

Crude oil has to break $120.60 this week else it will fall back to $113.80 and $109.20. A break of $120.60 will result in $125.10.

INDIAN RUPEE (USD/INR)

Arbitrage in the non deliverable forward (NDF) market has resulted in a weaker rupee. Traders are buying cash selling forward as a hedge. Further there is a greater cash demand for the US dollar due to summer holiday travel. This has resulted in importers covering their short term payables on dips. The current weakness in the rupee will be short lived, once the arbitrage demand is over, the rupee will once again gain to 40.25. Intra day 40.88 is the key resistance support while 40.48 is the key support.

MCXARUN
9994500540