comex gold outlook

Gold prices continued recovery following last week’s sharp losses, supported by a rally in oil prices to a fresh high above $120 a barrel and weakness in the dollar.



International spot gold traded in the range $857.55 - $874.05 and last quoted at $873.05 ($855.45).



Dollar continued to ease despite an unexpectedly strong data from the US Service sector. According to data released yesterday, the ISM's non-manufacturing index rose to 52.0% in April from 49.6% in March.



The greenback was affected by the Federal Reserve’s senior loan officer survey, which found Consumers and businesses found it harder to borrow money over the past three months, which indicates that the credit crunch might be still worsening despite the Fed’s grave efforts.



The Fed on Wednesday cut its overnight lending rate by 25 basis points to 2 percent and signaled that its next move would depend on developments in financial markets and the economy. The Feds signal boosted the optimism of the traders in the currency market. Since mid-September, the US central bank has slashed the fed funds rate target by 3.25 percentage points to shore up an economy.



The Conference Board’s April consumer confidence index had descended to 62.3 from an upwardly revised reading of 65.9 in March.



Also the University of Michigan/Reuters' consumer sentiment index declined to 62.6 in April from 69.5 in March.



The US Commerce Department had revealed that the nation's trade deficit expanded unexpectedly by 5.7% to $62.3 billion in February.



Oil prices crossed above $120 a barrel yesterday, for the first time ever, as geo-political tensions especially in Nigeria, where a militant attack disrupted oil production in facilities belonging to Anglo-Dutch oil group Royal Dutch Shell, added to supply jitters.



Crude oil June in NYMEX traded as high as $120.23 and closed at $120.20 ($116.32).



Medium term outlook (Spot Gold)

Weak below $881; supports are $872, $861, $849, $835, $817, $800; resistances $896, $906, $926.



Last day DGCX Gold June traded in the range $864.00 – $875.50 and closed at $875.10 ($858.90).

DGCX Gold June


TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)

GOLD (June) - Bullish above $ 874.80; bearish below $ 870.00


MCXARUN
9994500540