The LBMA Annual Forecast - 2008
GOLD
Each contributor has given a high, low and average price for 2008
and a brief commentary about what will happen over the course of the year.
Click on the name to read the forecast from that contributor.
NAME HIGH LOW AVG.
Hochreiter, Rene 1,150 840 1,050
Norman, Ross 1,250 840 976
Davis, David 1,110 760 950
Kendall, Tom 1,025 780 920
Fertig, Peter 1,000 800 920
Tully, Edel 1,045 750 903
Murenbeeld, Martin 1,015 775 890
O'Connell, Rhona 950 730 880
Panizzutti, Frederic 1,001 780 872
Klapwijk, Philip 1,001 810 866
Christian, Jeffrey 1,060 770 850
Takai, Bob 1,000 650 850
Vaidya, Bhargava 960 720 850
Turner, Matthew 980 740 845
Cooper, Suki 1,000 690 840
De Wet, Walter 980 700 835
Biondi, Adrien 900 760 830
Reade, John 1,000 700 825
Zumpfe, Alexander 975 740 825
Jansen, Michael 975 775 814
Steel, James 950 700 800
Briggs, Stephen 675 800
Rhodes, Jeffrey 975 660 755
Turnbull, Trevor 1,000 700 750
Mcxarun,india 930 760 845
AVERAGES: 1,009.458 743.542 862.333
MCXARUN
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Thursday, January 17, 2008
safe calls to normal traders
GOLD
the day sell only below 11100 S/L 11120 and T/p 11060/11000 upto 10850 in days to come OR sell ard 11285-295 S/L 11300 and T/p 11250-200 (any time close above 11550 bullish while close below 10975/10825/10560/10320/ 10175/10080-25/9950/9750/9420/9025 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
for the day sell only below 20400 S/L 20475 and T/p 20325/20200 upto 20000/ 19900 in days to come OR sell ard 20770-90 S/L 20825 and T/p 20675-625/ 20525 (any time close below 20000-19725/19375/19000/18625/18250/ 18100/17750/17050/16450 bearish rally while close above 21500/23150 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
for the day sell only below 3500 S/L 3522 and T/p 3465-55/3430/3405/ 3380/ bearish rally OR buy only abv 3595 S/L 3578 and T/p 3620-30/3665/3700/ uprally (now crude need to close above 3700/3840/3910-35 for bullish while close below 3500/3380/3290-60 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
for the day sell only below 275 S/L 276.25 and T/p 274/272-71.5 upto 268 OR buy abv 281 S/L 279.5 and T/p 283/ 285 (upside strong rally only on close above 293/299/314/321.5/327/331.5/ 348 while close below 271.5/265/250/ 235 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
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the day sell only below 11100 S/L 11120 and T/p 11060/11000 upto 10850 in days to come OR sell ard 11285-295 S/L 11300 and T/p 11250-200 (any time close above 11550 bullish while close below 10975/10825/10560/10320/ 10175/10080-25/9950/9750/9420/9025 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
for the day sell only below 20400 S/L 20475 and T/p 20325/20200 upto 20000/ 19900 in days to come OR sell ard 20770-90 S/L 20825 and T/p 20675-625/ 20525 (any time close below 20000-19725/19375/19000/18625/18250/ 18100/17750/17050/16450 bearish rally while close above 21500/23150 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
for the day sell only below 3500 S/L 3522 and T/p 3465-55/3430/3405/ 3380/ bearish rally OR buy only abv 3595 S/L 3578 and T/p 3620-30/3665/3700/ uprally (now crude need to close above 3700/3840/3910-35 for bullish while close below 3500/3380/3290-60 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
for the day sell only below 275 S/L 276.25 and T/p 274/272-71.5 upto 268 OR buy abv 281 S/L 279.5 and T/p 283/ 285 (upside strong rally only on close above 293/299/314/321.5/327/331.5/ 348 while close below 271.5/265/250/ 235 bearish for medium term)
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Base metals intraday
Copper and nickel slid for a second day in London on concern that the U.S., the world's second- largest user of industrial metals, is sliding into recession. Lead and zinc also declined.
· US December industrial production avoided the outright decline economists had been expecting, but the slowing economy left fourth quarter production at a -1.0 pct annualized rate, the first quarterly drop since a -1.5 pct rate in Q4 of 2006.
· The Federal Reserve reported the output of US factories, mines and utilities was unchanged last month vs a forecast 0.2 pct fall. That followed an unrevised and unexpectedly large 0.3 pct gain in November. October production fell 0.5 pct. Compared with December of last year,US industrial production was up 1.5 pct.
· December's operating rate was 81.4 pct of capacity, off slightly from the revised 81.6 pct in November, but again a sign that production wasn't contracting quite as rapidly as feared. The median forecast for capacity utilization was 81.2 pct.
· Manufacturing was supposed to be the weak point in the December industrial production report, based on a decline in hours worked and slowdowns at auto plants. Instead, overall manufacturing also held unchanged with with a 0.2 pct increase in automotive products.
· Demand for all metals in China, the world's largest user, continued to expand last year and support prices. Nickel consumption increased 30 percent in the first 11 months, the International Nickel Study Group said yesterday.
· Imports of refined copper and alloys gained 78 percent in the full year, the Beijing-based customs office said.
· Copper and nickel slid for a second day in London on concern that the U.S., the world's second- largest user of industrial metals, is sliding into recession. Lead and zinc also declined.
· US December industrial production avoided the outright decline economists had been expecting, but the slowing economy left fourth quarter production at a -1.0 pct annualized rate, the first quarterly drop since a -1.5 pct rate in Q4 of 2006.
· The Federal Reserve reported the output of US factories, mines and utilities was unchanged last month vs a forecast 0.2 pct fall. That followed an unrevised and unexpectedly large 0.3 pct gain in November. October production fell 0.5 pct. Compared with December of last year,US industrial production was up 1.5 pct.
· December's operating rate was 81.4 pct of capacity, off slightly from the revised 81.6 pct in November, but again a sign that production wasn't contracting quite as rapidly as feared. The median forecast for capacity utilization was 81.2 pct.
· Manufacturing was supposed to be the weak point in the December industrial production report, based on a decline in hours worked and slowdowns at auto plants. Instead, overall manufacturing also held unchanged with with a 0.2 pct increase in automotive products.
· Demand for all metals in China, the world's largest user, continued to expand last year and support prices. Nickel consumption increased 30 percent in the first 11 months, the International Nickel Study Group said yesterday.
· Imports of refined copper and alloys gained 78 percent in the full year, the Beijing-based customs office said.
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are still bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Copper Feb: Sell at 280-279 for the target of 272, 270 and 268 with stop loss at 283.25
MCX Zinc Jan (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are still bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Zinc Jan: Sell at 91.00-91.50 for the target of 89.20 and 88.50 with stop loss at 92.40
MCX Nickel Jan (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are still bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Nickel Jan: Sell at 1110-1105 for the target of 1080 and 1065 with stop loss at 1135
MCX Lead Dec (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are still bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Lead Jan: Sell at 102.50-102 for the target of 101.20 and 100.50 with stop loss at 103.20
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· US December industrial production avoided the outright decline economists had been expecting, but the slowing economy left fourth quarter production at a -1.0 pct annualized rate, the first quarterly drop since a -1.5 pct rate in Q4 of 2006.
· The Federal Reserve reported the output of US factories, mines and utilities was unchanged last month vs a forecast 0.2 pct fall. That followed an unrevised and unexpectedly large 0.3 pct gain in November. October production fell 0.5 pct. Compared with December of last year,US industrial production was up 1.5 pct.
· December's operating rate was 81.4 pct of capacity, off slightly from the revised 81.6 pct in November, but again a sign that production wasn't contracting quite as rapidly as feared. The median forecast for capacity utilization was 81.2 pct.
· Manufacturing was supposed to be the weak point in the December industrial production report, based on a decline in hours worked and slowdowns at auto plants. Instead, overall manufacturing also held unchanged with with a 0.2 pct increase in automotive products.
· Demand for all metals in China, the world's largest user, continued to expand last year and support prices. Nickel consumption increased 30 percent in the first 11 months, the International Nickel Study Group said yesterday.
· Imports of refined copper and alloys gained 78 percent in the full year, the Beijing-based customs office said.
· Copper and nickel slid for a second day in London on concern that the U.S., the world's second- largest user of industrial metals, is sliding into recession. Lead and zinc also declined.
· US December industrial production avoided the outright decline economists had been expecting, but the slowing economy left fourth quarter production at a -1.0 pct annualized rate, the first quarterly drop since a -1.5 pct rate in Q4 of 2006.
· The Federal Reserve reported the output of US factories, mines and utilities was unchanged last month vs a forecast 0.2 pct fall. That followed an unrevised and unexpectedly large 0.3 pct gain in November. October production fell 0.5 pct. Compared with December of last year,US industrial production was up 1.5 pct.
· December's operating rate was 81.4 pct of capacity, off slightly from the revised 81.6 pct in November, but again a sign that production wasn't contracting quite as rapidly as feared. The median forecast for capacity utilization was 81.2 pct.
· Manufacturing was supposed to be the weak point in the December industrial production report, based on a decline in hours worked and slowdowns at auto plants. Instead, overall manufacturing also held unchanged with with a 0.2 pct increase in automotive products.
· Demand for all metals in China, the world's largest user, continued to expand last year and support prices. Nickel consumption increased 30 percent in the first 11 months, the International Nickel Study Group said yesterday.
· Imports of refined copper and alloys gained 78 percent in the full year, the Beijing-based customs office said.
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are still bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Copper Feb: Sell at 280-279 for the target of 272, 270 and 268 with stop loss at 283.25
MCX Zinc Jan (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are still bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Zinc Jan: Sell at 91.00-91.50 for the target of 89.20 and 88.50 with stop loss at 92.40
MCX Nickel Jan (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are still bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Nickel Jan: Sell at 1110-1105 for the target of 1080 and 1065 with stop loss at 1135
MCX Lead Dec (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are still bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Lead Jan: Sell at 102.50-102 for the target of 101.20 and 100.50 with stop loss at 103.20
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OUT LOOK
February gold closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of this winter's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a
steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might
be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 854.60 would confirm that a short-term top has been
posted. If February extends this winter's rally, Monthly resistance crossing at 930.00 is the next upside target. First resistance
is Tuesday's high crossing at 916.10 then monthly resistance crossing at 930.00. First support is today's low crossing at 875.00
then November's high crossing at 855.00.
March silver closed lower on Wednesday and as it consolidated some of the rally off December's low. The mid-range close sets
the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a
double top with November's high might have been posted earlier this week. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at
15.292 would confirm that a double top with November's high has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low,
weekly resistance crossing at 17.000 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 16.715 then weekly
resistance crossing at 17.000. First support is today's low crossing at 15.770 then the 20-day moving average crossing at
15.293.
March copper closed lower on Wednesday and below the 10-day moving average crossing at 324.05 signaling an end to this
month's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are
turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average
crossing at 314.71 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off December's low,
the 62% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at 340.79 is the next upside target. First resistance is
today's high crossing at 323.35. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level crossing at 330.22. First support is today's low
crossing at 314.70. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 314.71.
February crude oil closed lower on Wednesday as it extended this month's decline and spiked below the reaction low crossing at
89.15. A short covering rally tempered early losses and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday.
Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If
February extends this month's decline, December's low crossing at 85.37 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day
moving average crossing at 94.41 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. First resistance is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 94.28. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 94.41. First support is today's
low crossing at 88.94. Second support is December's low crossing at 85.37.
February Henry natural gas closed lower on Wednesday extending Tuesday's decline below the 62% retracement level of the
November-December decline crossing at 8.260 as it consolidated some of the rally off December's low. The mid-range close
sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish
hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.697 are needed to
confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If February renews this month's rally, the 75% retracement level of the
November-December decline crossing at 8.540 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 8.227
then the 75% retracement level crossing at 8.540. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 8.060. Second support
is the 50% retracement level crossing at 8.010.
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steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might
be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 854.60 would confirm that a short-term top has been
posted. If February extends this winter's rally, Monthly resistance crossing at 930.00 is the next upside target. First resistance
is Tuesday's high crossing at 916.10 then monthly resistance crossing at 930.00. First support is today's low crossing at 875.00
then November's high crossing at 855.00.
March silver closed lower on Wednesday and as it consolidated some of the rally off December's low. The mid-range close sets
the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a
double top with November's high might have been posted earlier this week. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at
15.292 would confirm that a double top with November's high has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low,
weekly resistance crossing at 17.000 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 16.715 then weekly
resistance crossing at 17.000. First support is today's low crossing at 15.770 then the 20-day moving average crossing at
15.293.
March copper closed lower on Wednesday and below the 10-day moving average crossing at 324.05 signaling an end to this
month's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are
turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average
crossing at 314.71 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off December's low,
the 62% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at 340.79 is the next upside target. First resistance is
today's high crossing at 323.35. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level crossing at 330.22. First support is today's low
crossing at 314.70. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 314.71.
February crude oil closed lower on Wednesday as it extended this month's decline and spiked below the reaction low crossing at
89.15. A short covering rally tempered early losses and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday.
Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If
February extends this month's decline, December's low crossing at 85.37 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day
moving average crossing at 94.41 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. First resistance is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 94.28. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 94.41. First support is today's
low crossing at 88.94. Second support is December's low crossing at 85.37.
February Henry natural gas closed lower on Wednesday extending Tuesday's decline below the 62% retracement level of the
November-December decline crossing at 8.260 as it consolidated some of the rally off December's low. The mid-range close
sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish
hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.697 are needed to
confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If February renews this month's rally, the 75% retracement level of the
November-December decline crossing at 8.540 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 8.227
then the 75% retracement level crossing at 8.540. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 8.060. Second support
is the 50% retracement level crossing at 8.010.
MCXARUN
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energy intraday
MCX Crude oil followed yesterday's trend and moved further down on Thursday. MCX Crude Oil Feb was trading below Rs. 3550 per barrel and registered a low of Rs. 3500 per barrel. Natural Gas also followed the trend.
· Similarly Nymex crude oil lost 2.13% in yesterdays trade and registered a low of $ 89.26 and closed below the mark of $90 per barrel.
· The IEA said in its monthly report that global demand will total 88.2 million barrels in the first quarter of this year, 100,000 barrels a day less than forecast last month, because of milder U.S. weather. Oil fell more than $2 yesterday after an unexpected drop in U.S. retail sales heightened growth concerns.
· The IEA reduced its 2008 forecast for oil demand growth in China, the fastest-growing consumer, by 100,000 barrels a day to 7.9 million barrels a day because of weaker fuel oil consumption.
· A U.S. Energy Department report due later today will probably show that crude-oil inventories rose 1.25 million barrels last week, from 282.8 million barrels, as refineries took delivery of imports that were delayed to trim tax bills, a Bloomberg News survey indicated.
· Discussions between President Bush and Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah in Riyadh have created ``hope that OPEC would authorize an increase in production,'' White House spokeswoman Dana Perino told reporters. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries meets Feb. 1.
· Purchases at gasoline service stations in the U.S. dropped 1.7 percent in December, contributing to the 0.4 percent decline for all retailers, Commerce Department data showed yesterday.
Weekly Inventory Data:
· The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) said that crude oil supplies were up 4.3 million barrels last week to 287.1 million barrels, helped by increased imports. Supplies of gasoline were up 2.2 million barrels while heating oil supplies were up 200,000 barrels. Also, 1.6 million barrels of crude oil were added to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. March crude oil is trading lower.
· The DOE also said that refinery use dropped from 91.3% to 87.1% last week. Over the past four weeks, gasoline demand was up 1.2% from a year ago while distillate demand was up 2.1% from a year ago.
MCX Crude Oil Feb (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive. The 9-day
Recommendations:
MCX Crude Oil Feb: Sell at 3555-3560 for target of 3505 and 3480 with stop loss below 3690
MCX Natural gas Feb (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies have turned bullish; will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are increasing from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 18-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Natural Gas Feb: Buy at 315-313 for the target of 321 and 329 with stop loss at 309
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· Similarly Nymex crude oil lost 2.13% in yesterdays trade and registered a low of $ 89.26 and closed below the mark of $90 per barrel.
· The IEA said in its monthly report that global demand will total 88.2 million barrels in the first quarter of this year, 100,000 barrels a day less than forecast last month, because of milder U.S. weather. Oil fell more than $2 yesterday after an unexpected drop in U.S. retail sales heightened growth concerns.
· The IEA reduced its 2008 forecast for oil demand growth in China, the fastest-growing consumer, by 100,000 barrels a day to 7.9 million barrels a day because of weaker fuel oil consumption.
· A U.S. Energy Department report due later today will probably show that crude-oil inventories rose 1.25 million barrels last week, from 282.8 million barrels, as refineries took delivery of imports that were delayed to trim tax bills, a Bloomberg News survey indicated.
· Discussions between President Bush and Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah in Riyadh have created ``hope that OPEC would authorize an increase in production,'' White House spokeswoman Dana Perino told reporters. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries meets Feb. 1.
· Purchases at gasoline service stations in the U.S. dropped 1.7 percent in December, contributing to the 0.4 percent decline for all retailers, Commerce Department data showed yesterday.
Weekly Inventory Data:
· The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) said that crude oil supplies were up 4.3 million barrels last week to 287.1 million barrels, helped by increased imports. Supplies of gasoline were up 2.2 million barrels while heating oil supplies were up 200,000 barrels. Also, 1.6 million barrels of crude oil were added to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. March crude oil is trading lower.
· The DOE also said that refinery use dropped from 91.3% to 87.1% last week. Over the past four weeks, gasoline demand was up 1.2% from a year ago while distillate demand was up 2.1% from a year ago.
MCX Crude Oil Feb (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive. The 9-day
Recommendations:
MCX Crude Oil Feb: Sell at 3555-3560 for target of 3505 and 3480 with stop loss below 3690
MCX Natural gas Feb (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies have turned bullish; will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are increasing from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 18-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Natural Gas Feb: Buy at 315-313 for the target of 321 and 329 with stop loss at 309
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bullion chart
This is MCX gold day chart
click the chart to view bigger
This is MCX Silver day chart
click the chart to view bigger
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click the chart to view bigger
This is MCX Silver day chart
click the chart to view bigger
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Technicals – MCX (Intra day calls)
CRUDE OIL (February) BULLISH ABOVE 3558 BEARISH BELOW 3544
GOLD (February) BULLISH ABOVE 11209 BEARISH BELOW 11171
SILVER (March) BULLISH ABOVE 20663 BEARISH BELOW 20579
COPPER (February) BULLISH ABOVE 278.6 BEARISH BELOW 277.8
LEAD (January) BULLISH ABOVE 102.95 BEARISH BELOW 102.55
NICKEL (January) BULLISH ABOVE 1102.5BEARISH BELOW 1098.5
ZINC (January) BULLISH ABOVE 91.25BEARISH BELOW 90.85
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GOLD (February) BULLISH ABOVE 11209 BEARISH BELOW 11171
SILVER (March) BULLISH ABOVE 20663 BEARISH BELOW 20579
COPPER (February) BULLISH ABOVE 278.6 BEARISH BELOW 277.8
LEAD (January) BULLISH ABOVE 102.95 BEARISH BELOW 102.55
NICKEL (January) BULLISH ABOVE 1102.5BEARISH BELOW 1098.5
ZINC (January) BULLISH ABOVE 91.25BEARISH BELOW 90.85
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bullion intraday
Precious metals eased on MCX on profit booking following Tuesday's lifetime high of Rs.11,533 per 10 gm. MCX Gold Feb touched the low of Rs. 11102 per 10 gram on correction note and was trading with heavy losses. Similarly MCX Silver March followed the gold movement and registered the low of Rs. 20412 per kg
US-led recession fears knocked precious metals from near record highs overnight, with a steeper correction possible Wednesday depending on how financial markets stand up this session
The U.S. Department of Labor said that consumer prices were up .3% in December and up 4.1% for all of 2007, the biggest annual increase since 1990. Excluding food and energy, prices were up .2% in December and up 2.4% from a year ago. The December eurodollars are steady to higher.
The Mortgage Bankers Association said that its index of mortgage applications was up 28% last week to 906.4, the highest in over three and a half years. The average 30-year mortgage rate dropped to 5.62%, the lowest in over two and a half years.
The Federal Reserve said that industrial production was unchanged in December and up 1.5% from a year ago.
Indian Bullion Spot Market
Precious metals eased in spot markets following the profit booking in international markets after the recent highs.
· In Mumbai markets, gold (995) declined by Rs.345 to finish at Rs 11,230/10gm and gold (999) by Rs.245 at Rs 11,280/10gm whereas Silver (.999) closed at Rs 20,395/kg, down by Rs.325.
· Chennai gold (995) and gold (999) rose by Rs.60 to finish at Rs 11,450/10gm and Rs 11,500/10gm respectively whereas Silver (.999) closed at Rs 20,300/kg, up by Rs.200.
· Jaipur gold standard slipped by Rs.50 to finish at Rs.11,300/10gm whereas Silver(.999) by Rs.600 to close at Rs.20,000/kg.
· Ahmedabad gold (995) dipped by Rs.110 to close at Rs.11,210/10gm and gold (999) by Rs.105 to close at Rs.11,370/10gm respectively whereas Silver (.999) jumped up by Rs.225 to close at Rs.20,625/kg.
· In Delhi bullion markets, gold (995) declined by Rs.350 to close at Rs 11,350/10gm and gold (999) by Rs.230 to close at Rs 11,410/10gm respectively whereas Silver (.999) closed at Rs 20,020/kg, down by Rs.600.
MCX Gold Feb (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are still bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Gold Feb: Buy at 11100-11090 for the target of 11280 and 11350 with stop loss at 11065
MCX Silver Mar (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are still bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Silver March: Buy at 20400-420 for the target of 20850 and 20980 with stop loss at 20290
MCXARUN
9994500540
US-led recession fears knocked precious metals from near record highs overnight, with a steeper correction possible Wednesday depending on how financial markets stand up this session
The U.S. Department of Labor said that consumer prices were up .3% in December and up 4.1% for all of 2007, the biggest annual increase since 1990. Excluding food and energy, prices were up .2% in December and up 2.4% from a year ago. The December eurodollars are steady to higher.
The Mortgage Bankers Association said that its index of mortgage applications was up 28% last week to 906.4, the highest in over three and a half years. The average 30-year mortgage rate dropped to 5.62%, the lowest in over two and a half years.
The Federal Reserve said that industrial production was unchanged in December and up 1.5% from a year ago.
Indian Bullion Spot Market
Precious metals eased in spot markets following the profit booking in international markets after the recent highs.
· In Mumbai markets, gold (995) declined by Rs.345 to finish at Rs 11,230/10gm and gold (999) by Rs.245 at Rs 11,280/10gm whereas Silver (.999) closed at Rs 20,395/kg, down by Rs.325.
· Chennai gold (995) and gold (999) rose by Rs.60 to finish at Rs 11,450/10gm and Rs 11,500/10gm respectively whereas Silver (.999) closed at Rs 20,300/kg, up by Rs.200.
· Jaipur gold standard slipped by Rs.50 to finish at Rs.11,300/10gm whereas Silver(.999) by Rs.600 to close at Rs.20,000/kg.
· Ahmedabad gold (995) dipped by Rs.110 to close at Rs.11,210/10gm and gold (999) by Rs.105 to close at Rs.11,370/10gm respectively whereas Silver (.999) jumped up by Rs.225 to close at Rs.20,625/kg.
· In Delhi bullion markets, gold (995) declined by Rs.350 to close at Rs 11,350/10gm and gold (999) by Rs.230 to close at Rs 11,410/10gm respectively whereas Silver (.999) closed at Rs 20,020/kg, down by Rs.600.
MCX Gold Feb (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are still bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Gold Feb: Buy at 11100-11090 for the target of 11280 and 11350 with stop loss at 11065
MCX Silver Mar (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are still bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Silver March: Buy at 20400-420 for the target of 20850 and 20980 with stop loss at 20290
MCXARUN
9994500540
Base metals
Copper:
Copper trade on ACCESS is showing weaker prices in recent activity extending the prior sessions weaker close. Trend indicators are indicating a bullish market. However the overall strength of the trend, as indicated by the ADX, is weak and should be watched as a result. Momentum readings are also bullish. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days and should be watched.
TREND INDICATORS:
Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices cross below this moving average. However, despite prices trading below the moving average line, the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session. If prices trade above the moving average then the trend will be clearly established as up. However, this weakness in the price will need to be watched. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a weak bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. However, despite prices trading above the moving average line, the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session. If prices trade below the moving average then the trend will be clearly established as up. However, this strength in the price will need to be watched. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a weak bearish bias.
ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is falling, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is down. However, the weak ADX indicates that the current trend is deteriorating and may possibly reverse. Look for a choppiness ahead.
MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days.
RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 50.47). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 50.47 the market is somewhat overbought. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of weakness from this indicator before getting too bearish here.
VOLATILITY INDICATORS:
Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices.
RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:
3.4000 - Highest High in last 50-Days
3.3910 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
3.3899 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
3.3785 - Highest High in last 10-Days
3.3056 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
3.2691 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
3.2507 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
3.2406 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
3.2335 - High
3.1715 - Last Price
3.1470 - Low
3.1151 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
3.1050 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
3.0550 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
3.0253 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
2.9034 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
2.8530 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
MCXARUN
9994500540
Copper trade on ACCESS is showing weaker prices in recent activity extending the prior sessions weaker close. Trend indicators are indicating a bullish market. However the overall strength of the trend, as indicated by the ADX, is weak and should be watched as a result. Momentum readings are also bullish. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days and should be watched.
TREND INDICATORS:
Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices cross below this moving average. However, despite prices trading below the moving average line, the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session. If prices trade above the moving average then the trend will be clearly established as up. However, this weakness in the price will need to be watched. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a weak bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. However, despite prices trading above the moving average line, the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session. If prices trade below the moving average then the trend will be clearly established as up. However, this strength in the price will need to be watched. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a weak bearish bias.
ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is falling, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is down. However, the weak ADX indicates that the current trend is deteriorating and may possibly reverse. Look for a choppiness ahead.
MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days.
RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 50.47). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 50.47 the market is somewhat overbought. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of weakness from this indicator before getting too bearish here.
VOLATILITY INDICATORS:
Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices.
RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:
3.4000 - Highest High in last 50-Days
3.3910 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
3.3899 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
3.3785 - Highest High in last 10-Days
3.3056 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
3.2691 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
3.2507 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
3.2406 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
3.2335 - High
3.1715 - Last Price
3.1470 - Low
3.1151 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
3.1050 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
3.0550 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
3.0253 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
2.9034 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
2.8530 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
MCXARUN
9994500540
energy
Crude Oil:
Front month crude oil is weaker in ACCESS trade this morning extending the prior sessions weaker close. Trend indicators are showing the market in a neutral price pattern at present.
TREND INDICATORS:
Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session indicating further weakness. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bearish bias.
Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. However, despite prices trading below the moving average line, the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session. If prices trade above the moving average then the trend will be clearly established as up. However, this weakness in the price will need to be watched. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a weak bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session indicating further weakness. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bearish bias.
ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is rising, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is down. As the ADX is rising this indicates that the current trend is strong and should remain intact. Look for the current trend to continue.
MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bearish territory.
RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 41.89). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 41.89 the market is somewhat oversold. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of strength from this indicator before getting too bullish here.
VOLATILITY INDICATORS:
Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating oversold prices. Despite this oversold condition the market may become more oversold before turning higher. As a result, the market will look for additional strength in prices before turning bullish on this indicator.
RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:
100.09 - Highest High in last 50-Days
100.09 - Highest High in last 10-Days
99.95 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
97.26 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
94.73 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
94.01 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
93.59 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
92.25 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
91.90 - High
91.87 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
90.65 - Last Price
90.60 - Low
90.60 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
89.18 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
88.04 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
85.82 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
78.19 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
Natural Gas:
Natural Gas contracts are weaker this morning extending the prior sessions weaker close. Trend indicators have turned from a neutral price pattern to a bullish bias and the overall strength of the trend is strong, as indicated by the ADX.
TREND INDICATORS:
Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices cross below this moving average. However, despite prices trading below the moving average line, the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session. If prices trade above the moving average then the trend will be clearly established as up. However, this weakness in the price will need to be watched. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a weak bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is rising, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. As the ADX is rising it indicates that the current trend is strong and should remain intact. Look for the current trend to continue.
MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days.
RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 59.79). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 59.79 the market is somewhat overbought. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of weakness from this indicator before getting too bearish here.
VOLATILITY INDICATORS:
Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. The market is overbought and appears to be weakening. Look for a potential top in this area.
RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:
8.543 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
8.480 - Highest High in last 10-Days
8.480 - Highest High in last 50-Days
8.230 - High
8.200 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
8.107 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
8.053 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
8.052 - Last Price
8.050 - Low
7.571 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
7.566 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
7.500 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
7.234 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
7.179 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
7.165 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
6.914 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
6.797 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
MCXARUN
9994500540
Front month crude oil is weaker in ACCESS trade this morning extending the prior sessions weaker close. Trend indicators are showing the market in a neutral price pattern at present.
TREND INDICATORS:
Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session indicating further weakness. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bearish bias.
Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. However, despite prices trading below the moving average line, the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session. If prices trade above the moving average then the trend will be clearly established as up. However, this weakness in the price will need to be watched. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a weak bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session indicating further weakness. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bearish bias.
ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is rising, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is down. As the ADX is rising this indicates that the current trend is strong and should remain intact. Look for the current trend to continue.
MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bearish territory.
RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 41.89). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 41.89 the market is somewhat oversold. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of strength from this indicator before getting too bullish here.
VOLATILITY INDICATORS:
Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating oversold prices. Despite this oversold condition the market may become more oversold before turning higher. As a result, the market will look for additional strength in prices before turning bullish on this indicator.
RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:
100.09 - Highest High in last 50-Days
100.09 - Highest High in last 10-Days
99.95 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
97.26 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
94.73 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
94.01 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
93.59 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
92.25 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
91.90 - High
91.87 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
90.65 - Last Price
90.60 - Low
90.60 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
89.18 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
88.04 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
85.82 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
78.19 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
Natural Gas:
Natural Gas contracts are weaker this morning extending the prior sessions weaker close. Trend indicators have turned from a neutral price pattern to a bullish bias and the overall strength of the trend is strong, as indicated by the ADX.
TREND INDICATORS:
Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices cross below this moving average. However, despite prices trading below the moving average line, the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session. If prices trade above the moving average then the trend will be clearly established as up. However, this weakness in the price will need to be watched. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a weak bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is rising, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. As the ADX is rising it indicates that the current trend is strong and should remain intact. Look for the current trend to continue.
MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days.
RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 59.79). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 59.79 the market is somewhat overbought. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of weakness from this indicator before getting too bearish here.
VOLATILITY INDICATORS:
Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. The market is overbought and appears to be weakening. Look for a potential top in this area.
RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:
8.543 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
8.480 - Highest High in last 10-Days
8.480 - Highest High in last 50-Days
8.230 - High
8.200 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
8.107 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
8.053 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
8.052 - Last Price
8.050 - Low
7.571 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
7.566 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
7.500 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
7.234 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
7.179 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
7.165 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
6.914 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
6.797 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
MCXARUN
9994500540
Bullion
COMEX Gold:
Gold trading is weaker in ACCESS trade this morning extending the prior sessions weaker close. Trend indicators are indicating a bullish market and the overall strength of the trend is strong, as indicated by the ADX. Momentum readings are also bullish. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days and should be watched.
TREND INDICATORS:
Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices cross below this moving average. However, despite prices trading below the moving average line, the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session. If prices trade above the moving average then the trend will be clearly established as up. However, this weakness in the price will need to be watched. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a weak bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is rising, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. As the ADX is rising it indicates that the current trend is strong and should remain intact. Look for the current trend to continue.
MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days.
RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 64.29). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 64.29 the market is somewhat overbought. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of weakness from this indicator before getting too bearish here.
VOLATILITY INDICATORS:
Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. The market is overbought and appears to be weakening. Look for a potential top in this area.
RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:
921.59 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
916.10 - Highest High in last 10-Days
916.10 - Highest High in last 50-Days
901.00 - High
896.37 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
888.02 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
883.92 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
883.10 - Last Price
878.50 - Low
856.50 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
845.05 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
826.85 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
820.89 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
787.32 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
783.84 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
773.40 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
727.90 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
COMEX Silver:
Silver futures are weaker this morning extending the prior sessions weaker close. Trend indicators are indicating a bullish market. However the overall strength of the trend, as indicated by the ADX, is weak and should be watched as a result. Momentum readings are also bullish. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days and should be watched.
TREND INDICATORS:
Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices cross below this moving average. However, despite prices trading below the moving average line, the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session. If prices trade above the moving average then the trend will be clearly established as up. However, this weakness in the price will need to be watched. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a weak bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is falling, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. However, as the ADX has turned lower, it indicates weakness in the current trend. As a result, the market may turn choppy here and has the potential to move lower.
MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days.
RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 62.07). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 62.07 the market is somewhat overbought. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of weakness from this indicator before getting too bearish here.
VOLATILITY INDICATORS:
Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. The market is overbought and appears to be weakening. Look for a potential top in this area.
RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:
16.744 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
16.715 - Highest High in last 10-Days
16.715 - Highest High in last 50-Days
16.230 - High
16.213 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
16.018 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
15.919 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
15.915 - Last Price
15.770 - Low
15.165 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
15.109 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
14.913 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
14.565 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
14.147 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
13.838 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
13.740 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
13.646 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
MCXARUN
9994500540
Gold trading is weaker in ACCESS trade this morning extending the prior sessions weaker close. Trend indicators are indicating a bullish market and the overall strength of the trend is strong, as indicated by the ADX. Momentum readings are also bullish. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days and should be watched.
TREND INDICATORS:
Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices cross below this moving average. However, despite prices trading below the moving average line, the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session. If prices trade above the moving average then the trend will be clearly established as up. However, this weakness in the price will need to be watched. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a weak bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is rising, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. As the ADX is rising it indicates that the current trend is strong and should remain intact. Look for the current trend to continue.
MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days.
RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 64.29). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 64.29 the market is somewhat overbought. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of weakness from this indicator before getting too bearish here.
VOLATILITY INDICATORS:
Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. The market is overbought and appears to be weakening. Look for a potential top in this area.
RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:
921.59 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
916.10 - Highest High in last 10-Days
916.10 - Highest High in last 50-Days
901.00 - High
896.37 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
888.02 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
883.92 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
883.10 - Last Price
878.50 - Low
856.50 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
845.05 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
826.85 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
820.89 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
787.32 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
783.84 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
773.40 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
727.90 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
COMEX Silver:
Silver futures are weaker this morning extending the prior sessions weaker close. Trend indicators are indicating a bullish market. However the overall strength of the trend, as indicated by the ADX, is weak and should be watched as a result. Momentum readings are also bullish. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days and should be watched.
TREND INDICATORS:
Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices cross below this moving average. However, despite prices trading below the moving average line, the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session. If prices trade above the moving average then the trend will be clearly established as up. However, this weakness in the price will need to be watched. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a weak bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is falling, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. However, as the ADX has turned lower, it indicates weakness in the current trend. As a result, the market may turn choppy here and has the potential to move lower.
MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days.
RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 62.07). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 62.07 the market is somewhat overbought. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of weakness from this indicator before getting too bearish here.
VOLATILITY INDICATORS:
Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. The market is overbought and appears to be weakening. Look for a potential top in this area.
RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:
16.744 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
16.715 - Highest High in last 10-Days
16.715 - Highest High in last 50-Days
16.230 - High
16.213 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
16.018 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
15.919 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
15.915 - Last Price
15.770 - Low
15.165 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
15.109 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
14.913 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
14.565 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
14.147 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
13.838 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
13.740 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
13.646 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
MCXARUN
9994500540
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
US dollar gains, gold falls. Yesterday volatility was higher as traders now expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 0.50% instead of 0.75%. This resulted in higher volatility. Once again gold edged higher before the London pm fixing only to fall thereafter. At lower levels physical gold demand will start to rise marginally from zero. Silver was also volatile but has remained firm. Even if the Fed cuts interest rates by 0.50%, interest rates differentials will widen. Further the Fed will not stop and will cut interest rates in March also. This will result in more losses for the US dollar and gains for gold and silver. Base metals will depend on how global growth picks up.
Technically, this is a just a correction in gold and silver and nothing else. There could be more losses if technical trade continues. Once momentum picks up gold and silver will once again start to rise and create new highs.
GOLD -- FEBRURAY FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT:$874.0
As long as gold holds $856 and $872 downside will be limited and gold will target $900 and $915 once again.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Technically, this is a just a correction in gold and silver and nothing else. There could be more losses if technical trade continues. Once momentum picks up gold and silver will once again start to rise and create new highs.
GOLD -- FEBRURAY FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT:$874.0
As long as gold holds $856 and $872 downside will be limited and gold will target $900 and $915 once again.
MCXARUN
9994500540
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