Thursday, January 17, 2008

GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS

US dollar gains, gold falls. Yesterday volatility was higher as traders now expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 0.50% instead of 0.75%. This resulted in higher volatility. Once again gold edged higher before the London pm fixing only to fall thereafter. At lower levels physical gold demand will start to rise marginally from zero. Silver was also volatile but has remained firm. Even if the Fed cuts interest rates by 0.50%, interest rates differentials will widen. Further the Fed will not stop and will cut interest rates in March also. This will result in more losses for the US dollar and gains for gold and silver. Base metals will depend on how global growth picks up.

Technically, this is a just a correction in gold and silver and nothing else. There could be more losses if technical trade continues. Once momentum picks up gold and silver will once again start to rise and create new highs.

GOLD -- FEBRURAY FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT:$874.0

As long as gold holds $856 and $872 downside will be limited and gold will target $900 and $915 once again.

MCXARUN
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