mcx gold intraday

MCX Gold is bullish; can go up to higher levels
30 June 2008 10:56:25

MCX Gold: The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices.

The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations–MCX Gold Aug: Buy at 12765 Target 12840 and 12900 Stoploss at 12718

MCXARUN
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copper intraday

Copper rises on inventory data at SHFE
30 June 2008 10:38:21

Copper futures ticked to their highest level in 1 1/2 months Friday with the help of recent U.S. dollar weakness, inventory declines and chart-based momentum.

Much of the influence has been the recently softer U.S. dollar, Warrants and deliverable copper were down in Shanghai in a surprise drop, and LME stocks were a little bit lower although certainly not eye-popping

Once-a-week inventory data released on Fridays for the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed a fall of 1,016 metric tons to 32,401. Inventories of copper stored in London Metal Exchange warehouses fell 150 metric tons Friday, leaving them at 122,900.

Much of the buying in copper and other commodities has been inflation-related, Light speculative buying occurred.

A key for the markets this week will be a European Central Bank meeting. There are expectations for a rate hike, which may prompt further weakness in the dollar. This tends to support commodities such as copper.
However, such a move would also mean a slowing of the economy there, which also has demand implications for the metal.

The most recent Comex inventory data, released late Thursday afternoon, were steady at 11,040 short tons. Copper inventories at LME, increased by -150 MT to 122900 MT.

MCX Copper June - Technical Outlook:

The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The prices closed above short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading upwards in positive region, showing increase in bullish momentum.

Technical have turned neutral to bullish and market is expected to remain positive above 366.8 levels. If sustain above this level can see a rally towards 369.2 and 373.6, If market sustains below 362.4 can see a further fall towards 360.0 and 355.6

Recommendations-MCX Copper June: Buy at 366 Target 369 and 372 SL 364

MCXARUN
9994500540

ENERGY intraday

Crdue Oil trades higher on speculative buying
30 June 2008 10:41:45

Oil prices jumped to record high levels above $142 a barrel on Friday, as the US currency weakened further and stock markets tumbled at the end of a volatile trading week for investors. New York light sweet crude struck a historic peak of $142.26 a barrel and Brent North Sea crude reached an all-time high of $142.13 in electronic deals.

World stocks fell to a three-month low as a fast deteriorating global inflation picture intensified concerns over the outlook for corporate profits, hastening the rush of investors' funds into commodities. 40 percent surge in oil prices this year has prompted U.S. politicians to take steps to try to curb speculation in the oil market, that some blame for pushing up prices.

Weakness in the U.S. dollar has almost become a "self-fulfilling prophecy", a scaling back of U.S. rate expectations has pushed the dollar lower, encouraging gains in the oil price and in turn exacerbating worries over inflation and the outlook for the U.S. economy.

Moreover, the dollar could be set to "lose ground rapidly" next week in the event of a combination of negative factors for the currency, namely a rate hike in the euro zone, further weak U.S. data and poor liquidity ahead of the July 4 holiday in the U.S.

Crude also got a leg up after Libya threatened an output cut. Shokri Ghanem, chief of Libya's national oil company, reiterated his Sunday comments that Libya "sees a possibility for a decrease in production.

The U.S. House of Representatives on Thursday approved legislation which directs the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the futures market regulator, to use all its authority including emergency powers to "curb immediately" the role of excessive speculation in energy futures markets, Talks between oil workers and Chevron continued in Nigeria, with the oil minister saying he was confident a deal could be reached, but union officials left open the possibility of a strike early this week.

Natural gas in New York gained as rude oil rose to a record and on speculation lower stockpiles ill push prices higher later this year. Declining imports of gas from Canada and reduced supplies of liquefied natural gas have increased speculation of a possible supply crunch next winter and higher prices

Higher oil prices have also made natural gas cheaper on a relative basis, prompting those seeking a bargain to buy. On an energy equivalency basis, oil used to heat buildings and run power plants traded at a premium to gas in New York of about 39 percent.

MCX Crude Oil July - Technical Outlook:

The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil July: Buy at 5985 Target 6040 and 6120 Stoploss 5935

MCX Natural gas July - Technical Outlook:

The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas July: Buy at 564 Target 569 and 576 Stop loss at 559

MCXARUN
9994500540

BULLION intraday

Gold rises highest in a month
30 June 2008 10:40:02

Gold rose to the highest in a month as record energy costs boost demand for the precious metal as a hedge against inflation. Silver also gained. Crude-oil futures reached an all-time high above $142 a barrel on Friday and have doubled in the past year. Gold climbed to a record $1,033.90 an ounce in March as a slumping dollar and soaring raw-material prices spurred investors to purchase precious metals to protect against a loss of purchasing power.

Gold headed for a second weekly gain as crude oil rose to a record and the dollar weakened, boosting the appeal of the metal as a hedge against inflation and an alternative investment to the U.S. currency. And it has extended the rally that began after Wednesday's FOMC statement put on hold the possibility of higher U.S. interest rates that rallied the euro. And now crude oil has surged further, adding to worries about inflation.

The fortunes of gold remain closely tied to the course of the dollar for now, with an improvement in the currency's fortunes against the other major currencies not seen on the near-term horizon. But expectations are that when the dollar does begin to sustain a recovery, the slide in gold prices would be swift and furious.
New crest Mining Ltd. (NCM.AU) said gold production at its Telfer mine in Western Australia will be between 20,000 and 25,000 ounces lower in June due to the impact of gas shortages. it is now expecting gold production from Telfer of between 700,000 ounces and 750,000 ounces for fiscal 2009.

Gold will probably rally to $1,000 an ounce by the end of the year and ``work higher'' in the next two years, Citigroup Inc. said

ETF Securities Ltd., manager of $6 billion of commodity-backed investments, agreed to buy the two- thirds of two gold funds it didn't already own from the World Gold Council, doubling its assets of the precious metal. ETF bought control of Lyxor Gold Bullion Securities in London and Gold Bullion Securities in Melbourne from the World Gold Council's Gold Bullion Holdings for an undisclosed price, Jersey-based ETF Securities said in a statement. The two products have gold assets of 126 metric tons (4.05 million ounces) compared with 1.3 million ounces at ETF Securities.

U.S.Economy:

The U.S. Commerce Department said that personal incomes were up 1.9% in May while consumer spending was up .8%. The higher figures were attributed to the government's stimulus checks.

The Commerce Department also said that the core rate of personal consumption expenditures (an inflation indicator) was up .1% in May and up 2.1% from a year ago, less than expected.

The University of Michigan's index of consumer sentiment dropped from 59.8 to 56.4 in June, a little less than expected

Currencies update:

The yen strengthened from a record low against the euro and rose versus the dollar as a slump in stock markets around the world reduced demand for higher- yielding assets funded by loans in Japan.

ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet virtually pre-announced a rate hike at the central bank's last news conference, when he said that the council had moved to a state of "heightened alertness" on inflation risks and that it could raise rates by a small amount at the July 3 meeting.

The U.K.'s Office for National Statistics said that real GDP was up 2.3% in the first quarter from a year ago, down from its 2.5% estimate a month ago and weaker than expected. Nominal GDP was up 5.3% in the first quarter from a year ago.

MCX Silver July - Technical Outlook:

The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations-MCX Silver July: Buy at 24660 Target 24890 and 25040 stoploss at 23495

MCXARUN
9994500540

CRUDE intraday&weekly outlook

Crude Oil : Extends gains tracking NYMEX
30 June 2008 10:27:14



Oil prices recorded a fresh high on Friday, as comments from the OPEC President and a threat from Libya to cut its crude output worsened the supply worries.



Crude oil August in NYMEX settled at $140.54 on Friday, after touching an all-time high of $142.99 a barrel.



Chakib Khelil, president of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, said he believes oil prices could rise to between $150 and $170 a barrel this summer.



Libya's most senior oil official Shokri Ghanem said that he was studying the possibility of reducing production in response to a bill before the US Congress that would empower the Justice Department to sue members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries for limiting oil supplies.



On Wednesday, the US Energy Department's Energy Information Administration had reported the first weekly rise in US crude supply in six weeks. According to the EIA, US crude supplies climbed by 800,000 barrels to 301.8 million for the week ended June 20.



Short-term supply concerns due to geo-political tensions in the Middle East and Nigeria underpin the prices of oil.



In a widely expected move, the Fed on Wednesday kept its benchmark interest rate steady at 2 % and warned that upside risks to inflation have increased.



At a meeting of oil producers and consumers on Sunday, Saudi Arabia said it would raise its daily production by 200,000 barrels in July, in addition to the increase of 300,000 barrels a day which had been announced in May. This would make the total production from the country 9.7 million barrels a day.



But frequent militant attacks on Nigerian oil facilities continue to pose threats to supply from the oil-rich Niger Delta.



The oil cartel OPEC in its latest monthly oil market report had cut its estimate for 2008 global oil demand to an increase of 1.1 million barrels a day, from an increase of 1.17 million barrels projected earlier. The total global oil consumption was revised to 86.88 million barrels a day from the previous estimate of 86.95 million barrels a day.



Earlier, the International Energy Agency had lowered its forecast for average global oil product demand in 2008 to 86.8 million barrels a day, down 80,000 barrels a day from its previous estimate.



According to the latest energy-outlook report from the US Energy Information Administration, global oil consumption was up a lower than expected 630,000 barrels per day during the first quarter of 2008 compared with year-ago levels, against the expected growth by 1 million barrels a day.



Potential supply threats due to geo-political tensions and the Atlantic hurricane season also continue to underpin oil prices.



The Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1st. Arthur, the first Atlantic storm of the season had forced the closure of two export terminals in Mexico early this month, before weakening to a tropical depression creating heavy rains in the Gulf of Mexico.



Weekly Outlook (Crude oil NYMEX)



Continuation of uptrend expected above $140. Resistances $144.40, $149.70, $154.80; supports $138.00, $132.00, $127.60.



DWTI (July) traded in the range $139.15 - $142.91 and closed at $140.21 ($139.64).




TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)

DGCXCrude (July) - Bullish above 140.85; bearish below 140.30

MCXARUN
9994500540

comex gold outlook

Gold : Weak Dollar, firm Oil bring in investment demand
30 June 2008 10:23:24



Gold extended gains on Friday, as investment demand of the yellow metal increased with the dollar remaining weak and oil prices surging to a new all-time high near $143 a barrel.



International spot gold traded as high as $930.40 and last quoted at $927.14 ($916.25). On weekly basis spot gold gained $26.30, approximately 3%.



Official data that showed a 10.1 percent decrease in South Africa’s gold production in April 2008, compared to the corresponding month in the previous year, supported the bullion.



Dollar extended the decline since the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at 2 %, as economic fears persisted amid mixed data from various sectors and upside risks to inflation.



University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to 56.4 in June, the lowest level since 1980, from a reading of 59.6 in May.



Initial claims for US state unemployment benefits were unchanged at 384,000 in the week ending June 21, the Labor Department reported Thursday. But the four-week average of those claims rose to 378,250.



The National Association of Realtors reported Thursday that sales of existing single-family homes and condominiums edged up by 2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.99 million units in May.



But the sale of new US single-family homes tumbled 2.5% in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 512,000, according to the Commerce Department. Compared with a year earlier, the new-home sales were down 40.3%.



Meanwhile, the US Commerce Department in its final revision to GDP estimates said Thursday that the economy grew at a slightly faster pace in the first quarter than originally reported. Real GDP was revised to a 1.0% annual rate in the first three months of the year, up from an originally reported reading of 0.9%.



The US Consumer Confidence fell in June to a 16-year low. According to Conference Board, June consumer confidence index fell to 50.4 from a reading of 58.1 in May.



The US trade deficit had widened 7.8% in April to a seasonally adjusted $60.9 billion from $56.5 billion in March, according to the report by US Commerce Department. The growing deficit was driven by a surge in crude oil imports, which eclipsed a significant gain in the nation’s exports.



The recent data from various sectors in the US have given rather mixed hints regarding the economy.



Oil prices rose to near $143 a barrel yesterday for the first time ever, boosted by comments from the OPEC President and a threat from Libya to cut its crude output. Short-term supply concerns due to geo-political tensions in the Middle East and Nigeria underpin the prices of oil.



Weekly Outlook (Spot Gold)

Continuation of uptrend is expected above $932. Supports are $922, $913; resistances $945, $954.



Last day DGCX Gold Aug traded in the range $912.60 – $932.70 and closed at $928.70 ($919.50).





DGCX Gold August

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)

GOLD (Aug) - Bullish above $ 928; bearish below $ 923


MCXARUN
9994500540