GOLD
for the day sell below 12090 S/L 12110 and T/p 12035-12000/sustain below test 11900/towards 11850 OR buy abv 12225 S/L 12205 and T/p 12270-310/ 12340 (any time close above 12600/ 12875/13050/13330/13510 bullish while close below 12000/11775/11375/11200 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
we book profit on sell below 23000, for the day sell below 23100 S/L 23175 and T/p 23000/22930-850/22750 where good support while strong support at 22500 OR buy abv 22525 S/L 22440 and T/p 22600-700/22775/22875 (any time close below 22750-300/21575-500/ 20400/ 19250/18775 bearish rally while close above 25500/26300/27700 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
we book profit on sell below 5350, for the day sell below 5350-40 S/L 5370 and T/p 5300-10/towards 5225 atleast/ upto 5150 in coming days OR sell ard 5525-30 S/L 5535 and T/p 5490-5440 (now crude need to close above 5690-5730/5825 for bullish rally while close below 5300/5120/5050/4740/4450 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
for the day sell only below 333 S/L 334.25 and T/p 330-31/326.5 where good support seen, fall below 326.5 down rally sharp OR buy abv 338.5 S/L 337 and T/p 339.75-341/342.5 upto 345.5 (upside strong rally only on close above 352.5/361.5 while close below 333/330-326.5/310 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
Monday, June 2, 2008
long view calls
SPOT GOLD INTERNATIONAL
LIKELY TO TEST $ 830 - 815 UPTO $ 800 WITH ANY BREAK & SUSTAIN CLOSE BELOW $ 845, WHILE CLOSE ABOVE $ 930-936 TOWARDS 950-55 AND CLOSE ABOVE 955 RALLY TOWARDS TEST $ 980 - $ 1000 ATLEAST IN COMING DAYS
SPOT SILVER INTERNATIONAL
LIKELY TO TEST $ 15.50-15.40/15.25 UPTO $ 14.90 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW $ 15.95, WHILE CLOSE ABOVE $ 18.30 & 18.75 UPRALLY TEST $ 19.25-30 UPTO $ 19.90 IN COMING DAYS
SILVER LIKELY TO TEST 26000 - 26100 ATLEAST WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 25500(JULY)
MCXARUN
9994500540
LIKELY TO TEST $ 830 - 815 UPTO $ 800 WITH ANY BREAK & SUSTAIN CLOSE BELOW $ 845, WHILE CLOSE ABOVE $ 930-936 TOWARDS 950-55 AND CLOSE ABOVE 955 RALLY TOWARDS TEST $ 980 - $ 1000 ATLEAST IN COMING DAYS
SPOT SILVER INTERNATIONAL
LIKELY TO TEST $ 15.50-15.40/15.25 UPTO $ 14.90 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW $ 15.95, WHILE CLOSE ABOVE $ 18.30 & 18.75 UPRALLY TEST $ 19.25-30 UPTO $ 19.90 IN COMING DAYS
SILVER LIKELY TO TEST 26000 - 26100 ATLEAST WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 25500(JULY)
MCXARUN
9994500540
crude oil outlook
Crude oil Outlook
02 June 2008 10:13:52
Oil prices finished higher on Friday as weaker dollar spurred fund buying and short covering due to the weekend. Unexpected drop in US oil inventories released on last Thursday also supported the oil prices.
Crude oil July in NYMEX settled at $127.35 ($126.62), after trading in the range $124.67 - $128.30.
The weekly inventory report by US Energy Department’s Energy Information Administration showed an 8.8 million barrel drop in the nation’s crude supplies to 311.6 million, in the week ended May 23.
But according to the EIA, the drop in crude inventories was due to temporary delays in unloading oil tankers along the GulfCoast, and not the result of increased demand.
Potential supply threats due to geo-political tensions, expected demand from China and OPEC’s unwillingness to increase output despite high prices continue to underpin oil prices.
Another attack on Nigerian oil facilities refocused concerns on immediate supplies. Production was partially disturbed after militants attacked a major oil pipeline owned by Royal Dutch Shell in the Niger Delta on Monday.
Meanwhile, Iran has cut its crude oil exports by 200,000 barrels a day since February 20 due to a seasonal fall in demand for crude oil during the refinery maintenance period. Iran is the world's fourth biggest oil exporter, currently producing around 4 million barrels a day, of which roughly 2.5 million barrels a day is exported.
Oil prices have soared by over 30 percent since the beginning of the year, extending a long-term rally that has seen prices more than double since the beginning of 2007, as market players weigh rising demand against concerns over production.
Expected strong energy demand from China after the Asian nation suffered a devastating earthquake last week and higher gasoline purchases from the United States ahead of the summer driving season have also boosted crude. On the supply side, ministers from the OPEC have indicated any output increase from the cartel remains unlikely, as it continues to blame record prices on speculation, geopolitical factors and the dollar's decline, rather than a lack of crude in the market.
DWTI (July) traded in the range $128.22 - $125.00 and closed at $127.50.
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
DGCXCrude (July) - Bullish above 127.30; bearish below 126.90
MCXARUN
9994500540
02 June 2008 10:13:52
Oil prices finished higher on Friday as weaker dollar spurred fund buying and short covering due to the weekend. Unexpected drop in US oil inventories released on last Thursday also supported the oil prices.
Crude oil July in NYMEX settled at $127.35 ($126.62), after trading in the range $124.67 - $128.30.
The weekly inventory report by US Energy Department’s Energy Information Administration showed an 8.8 million barrel drop in the nation’s crude supplies to 311.6 million, in the week ended May 23.
But according to the EIA, the drop in crude inventories was due to temporary delays in unloading oil tankers along the GulfCoast, and not the result of increased demand.
Potential supply threats due to geo-political tensions, expected demand from China and OPEC’s unwillingness to increase output despite high prices continue to underpin oil prices.
Another attack on Nigerian oil facilities refocused concerns on immediate supplies. Production was partially disturbed after militants attacked a major oil pipeline owned by Royal Dutch Shell in the Niger Delta on Monday.
Meanwhile, Iran has cut its crude oil exports by 200,000 barrels a day since February 20 due to a seasonal fall in demand for crude oil during the refinery maintenance period. Iran is the world's fourth biggest oil exporter, currently producing around 4 million barrels a day, of which roughly 2.5 million barrels a day is exported.
Oil prices have soared by over 30 percent since the beginning of the year, extending a long-term rally that has seen prices more than double since the beginning of 2007, as market players weigh rising demand against concerns over production.
Expected strong energy demand from China after the Asian nation suffered a devastating earthquake last week and higher gasoline purchases from the United States ahead of the summer driving season have also boosted crude. On the supply side, ministers from the OPEC have indicated any output increase from the cartel remains unlikely, as it continues to blame record prices on speculation, geopolitical factors and the dollar's decline, rather than a lack of crude in the market.
DWTI (July) traded in the range $128.22 - $125.00 and closed at $127.50.
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
DGCXCrude (July) - Bullish above 127.30; bearish below 126.90
MCXARUN
9994500540
comex gold outlook
Gold Outlook
02 June 2008 10:09:44
Gold paired some of the week’s loses on Friday, supported by the recovery in the oil prices and weakness in the dollar. Weekend and month-end short covering also supported the yellow metal.
International spot gold traded in the range $889.60 - $870.00 and last quoted at $885.90 ($876.40).
But on last Thursday an upward revision to first-quarter growth in the US helped the dollar to advance against the major counterparts, which pushed down the gold prices. According to the data released by Commerce Department on Thursday, real gross domestic product of the US increased at a 0.9% annual rate in the first three months of the year, slightly faster than the previous estimate of 0.6%.
Meanwhile, better-than-expected survey on US durable goods orders also limited the fall in the greenback. Data from the Commerce Department showed new orders for US-made durable goods dropped less than expected 0.5 % in April, against the expectation for a 2.8% drop.
But among data from the US Labor market, the initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose modestly 4,000 to 372,000 in the week ended May 24, according to the Labor Department. However the four-week average of initial claims fell 2,500 to 370,500. Also continuing claims rose by 36,000 in the week ended May 17, reaching 3.10 million. The four-week average of continuing claims rose to 3.06 million, up 18,000.
The recent data from various sectors in the US have given mixed hints regarding the economy.
According to the release by US Conference Board on Tuesday, the consumer confidence index fell to 57.2 in May from a revised reading of 62.8 in April.
However the sales of new homes recovered during April for the first time in six months, rising 3.3% in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 526,000, the Commerce Department reported.
Even so, the housing market worries remained. Standard & Poor's reported that the decline in home prices for 20 US metropolitan areas accelerated in March, dropping 14.4% from the past year.
Earlier, the National Association of Realtors had reported a 1 % drop in the resale of houses and condos to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.89 million in April, from 4.94 million in March.
The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's April 29-30 meeting had invigorated worries about the economy. The minutes released last week revealed that the Fed sharply increased its inflation outlook for the current year and downwardly revised the forecast for economic growth for 2008.
According to the latest forecast, headline inflation as measured by the personal consumption expenditure price index would rise to a range of 3.1% to 3.4% this year, significantly higher from its previous forecast of 2.1% to 2.4% in January.
Crude oil July in NYMEX settled at $127.35 ($126.62), after trading in the range $124.67 - $128.30.
The weekly inventory report by US Energy Department’s Energy Information Administration had shown an 8.8 million barrel drop in the nation’s crude supplies to 311.6 million, in the week ended May 23.
But according to the EIA, the drop in crude inventories was due to temporary delays in unloading oil tankers along the Gulf Coast, and not the result of increased demand.
Potential supply threats due to geo-political tensions, expected demand from China and OPEC’s unwillingness to increase output despite high prices underpin oil prices.
Another attack on Nigerian oil facilities refocused concerns on immediate supplies. Production was partially disturbed after militants attacked a major oil pipeline owned by Royal Dutch Shell in the Niger Delta on Monday.
Last day DGCX Gold Aug traded in the range $893.00 – $874.50 and closed at $891.50.
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (Aug) - Bullish above $ 890; bearish below $ 885
MCXARUN
9994500540
02 June 2008 10:09:44
Gold paired some of the week’s loses on Friday, supported by the recovery in the oil prices and weakness in the dollar. Weekend and month-end short covering also supported the yellow metal.
International spot gold traded in the range $889.60 - $870.00 and last quoted at $885.90 ($876.40).
But on last Thursday an upward revision to first-quarter growth in the US helped the dollar to advance against the major counterparts, which pushed down the gold prices. According to the data released by Commerce Department on Thursday, real gross domestic product of the US increased at a 0.9% annual rate in the first three months of the year, slightly faster than the previous estimate of 0.6%.
Meanwhile, better-than-expected survey on US durable goods orders also limited the fall in the greenback. Data from the Commerce Department showed new orders for US-made durable goods dropped less than expected 0.5 % in April, against the expectation for a 2.8% drop.
But among data from the US Labor market, the initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose modestly 4,000 to 372,000 in the week ended May 24, according to the Labor Department. However the four-week average of initial claims fell 2,500 to 370,500. Also continuing claims rose by 36,000 in the week ended May 17, reaching 3.10 million. The four-week average of continuing claims rose to 3.06 million, up 18,000.
The recent data from various sectors in the US have given mixed hints regarding the economy.
According to the release by US Conference Board on Tuesday, the consumer confidence index fell to 57.2 in May from a revised reading of 62.8 in April.
However the sales of new homes recovered during April for the first time in six months, rising 3.3% in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 526,000, the Commerce Department reported.
Even so, the housing market worries remained. Standard & Poor's reported that the decline in home prices for 20 US metropolitan areas accelerated in March, dropping 14.4% from the past year.
Earlier, the National Association of Realtors had reported a 1 % drop in the resale of houses and condos to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.89 million in April, from 4.94 million in March.
The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's April 29-30 meeting had invigorated worries about the economy. The minutes released last week revealed that the Fed sharply increased its inflation outlook for the current year and downwardly revised the forecast for economic growth for 2008.
According to the latest forecast, headline inflation as measured by the personal consumption expenditure price index would rise to a range of 3.1% to 3.4% this year, significantly higher from its previous forecast of 2.1% to 2.4% in January.
Crude oil July in NYMEX settled at $127.35 ($126.62), after trading in the range $124.67 - $128.30.
The weekly inventory report by US Energy Department’s Energy Information Administration had shown an 8.8 million barrel drop in the nation’s crude supplies to 311.6 million, in the week ended May 23.
But according to the EIA, the drop in crude inventories was due to temporary delays in unloading oil tankers along the Gulf Coast, and not the result of increased demand.
Potential supply threats due to geo-political tensions, expected demand from China and OPEC’s unwillingness to increase output despite high prices underpin oil prices.
Another attack on Nigerian oil facilities refocused concerns on immediate supplies. Production was partially disturbed after militants attacked a major oil pipeline owned by Royal Dutch Shell in the Niger Delta on Monday.
Last day DGCX Gold Aug traded in the range $893.00 – $874.50 and closed at $891.50.
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (Aug) - Bullish above $ 890; bearish below $ 885
MCXARUN
9994500540
energy intraday
Energy
02 June 2008 10:19:17
Energy June 02 2008
Major Headlines:
Crude oil raised more than $1 a barrel on Friday as the dollar pared earlier gains, reaffirming the appeal of commodities priced in the U.S. currency as an inflation hedge. Oil gained 33 percent this year as a 6 percent drop in the dollar versus the euro made crude and other commodities a better value for buyers in other currencies. Prices are heading for a weekly decline after a government report last week showed that U.S. fuel consumption last week fell from a year earlier
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the watchdog for commodity transactions, is investigating U.S. crude oil trading to determine whether the surge to record prices is the result of manipulation or fraud. The CFTC has been investigating the transportation, storage and trading of crude oil in the U.S. since December, The probe includes oil futures contracts, which have soared as much as 40 percent this year to a record above $135 a barrel
The United Arab Emirates, OPEC's third-largest oil producer, is prepared to raise production if required by the market. The U.A.E. is willing and well-prepared, if the market requires, to meet our responsibilities,'' Ali Al Yabhouni, the U.A.E.'s governor to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, told reporters at a media briefing in Dubai last week
Rising anticipations that the Feds may hike interest rates this year gave the dollar the best support possible as investors' risk appetite returned as more and more investors lost interest in the crude markets while prices continued their slip again. In addition to that, US fuel demand dampened by 0.7% to 20.5 million barrels a day as prices have been surging while there is a global slowdown and likely to cripple energy products' demand worldwide.
Also as the US released its economic data regarding GDP showing that it grew at a faster pace in the first quarter, prompted investors to gain confidence in the U.S economy as they entered the stock markets while leaving crude markets
The dollar index, which measures the dollar’s value against a basket of major currencies, rose to 73.06. DXY,The stronger dollar also added a bearish tone to oil prices, which have failed to reach new records for a week as several developing nations in Asia have cut subsidies, possibly prompting a drop in Asian energy demand.
Natural gas rose amid speculation warmer weather will boost demand for cooling, Above-normal temperatures are forecast from Texas to the U.S. Northeast during the first two weeks of June, forecaster MDA Federal Inc.'s EarthSat Energy Weather of Rockville, Maryland. Gas inventories ended the winter heating season at 1.234 trillion cubic feet, the lowest in four years
MCX Crude Oil June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 5285 if market breaches below 5285 may see prices to take further correction towards 5171 and 4969 However if it holds back above 5601 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 5803 and 5917
Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil June: Sell at 5470 Target 5410 and 5340 Stoploss 5530
MCX Natural gas June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the resistance is seen at 509.00 levels. If market breaches 509.00 may see prices to take further upside towards 524.00 and 532.00 However if it holds back below 486.00 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 478.00 and 463.00
Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas June: Sell at 504 Target 498 and 495 Stop loss at 508.50
MCXARUN
9994500540
02 June 2008 10:19:17
Energy June 02 2008
Major Headlines:
Crude oil raised more than $1 a barrel on Friday as the dollar pared earlier gains, reaffirming the appeal of commodities priced in the U.S. currency as an inflation hedge. Oil gained 33 percent this year as a 6 percent drop in the dollar versus the euro made crude and other commodities a better value for buyers in other currencies. Prices are heading for a weekly decline after a government report last week showed that U.S. fuel consumption last week fell from a year earlier
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the watchdog for commodity transactions, is investigating U.S. crude oil trading to determine whether the surge to record prices is the result of manipulation or fraud. The CFTC has been investigating the transportation, storage and trading of crude oil in the U.S. since December, The probe includes oil futures contracts, which have soared as much as 40 percent this year to a record above $135 a barrel
The United Arab Emirates, OPEC's third-largest oil producer, is prepared to raise production if required by the market. The U.A.E. is willing and well-prepared, if the market requires, to meet our responsibilities,'' Ali Al Yabhouni, the U.A.E.'s governor to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, told reporters at a media briefing in Dubai last week
Rising anticipations that the Feds may hike interest rates this year gave the dollar the best support possible as investors' risk appetite returned as more and more investors lost interest in the crude markets while prices continued their slip again. In addition to that, US fuel demand dampened by 0.7% to 20.5 million barrels a day as prices have been surging while there is a global slowdown and likely to cripple energy products' demand worldwide.
Also as the US released its economic data regarding GDP showing that it grew at a faster pace in the first quarter, prompted investors to gain confidence in the U.S economy as they entered the stock markets while leaving crude markets
The dollar index, which measures the dollar’s value against a basket of major currencies, rose to 73.06. DXY,The stronger dollar also added a bearish tone to oil prices, which have failed to reach new records for a week as several developing nations in Asia have cut subsidies, possibly prompting a drop in Asian energy demand.
Natural gas rose amid speculation warmer weather will boost demand for cooling, Above-normal temperatures are forecast from Texas to the U.S. Northeast during the first two weeks of June, forecaster MDA Federal Inc.'s EarthSat Energy Weather of Rockville, Maryland. Gas inventories ended the winter heating season at 1.234 trillion cubic feet, the lowest in four years
MCX Crude Oil June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 5285 if market breaches below 5285 may see prices to take further correction towards 5171 and 4969 However if it holds back above 5601 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 5803 and 5917
Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil June: Sell at 5470 Target 5410 and 5340 Stoploss 5530
MCX Natural gas June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the resistance is seen at 509.00 levels. If market breaches 509.00 may see prices to take further upside towards 524.00 and 532.00 However if it holds back below 486.00 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 478.00 and 463.00
Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas June: Sell at 504 Target 498 and 495 Stop loss at 508.50
MCXARUN
9994500540
basemetals intraday
Basemetals
02 June 2008 10:00:40
Base Metals June 02, 2008
Major Economic Data:
Australia's Bureau of Statistics said that retail sales were down .2% in April, weaker than expected.
The U.S. Commerce Department said that personal incomes were up .2% in April while consumer spending was also up .2%, as expected. In March, personal incomes were revised up from .3% to .4%. In the same report, the core rate of personal consumption expenditures, an inflation gauge, was up just .1% in April and up 2.1% from a year ago.
The University of Michigan's index of consumer sentiment fell from 62.6 to 59.8 in May, the lowest in 28 years, but also up slightly from the estimate earlier this month.The Chicago purchasing managers' index increased from 48.3 to 49.1 in May, better than expected.
Statistics Canada said that real GDP was down .1% in the first quarter, but up 1.7% from a year ago, weaker than expected. It was the weakest performance in over four years.
Eurostat said that the unemployment rate for the Euro area 15 remained at 7.1% in April. They also estimated that consumer prices were up 3.6% in May from a year ago, up from a 3.3% gain in April.
Japan's Statistics Bureau said that consumer prices were down .1% in April, but up .8% from a year ago. The unemployment rate increased from 3.8% to 4.0% in April and household spending fell 2.7% in April from a year ago.
Real GDP in India was up 8.8% in the first quarter from a year ago, the same as in the fourth quarter of 2007.
Copper
Copper traded little changed in Asia after falling below $8,000 a metric ton last week as investors
awaited U.S. economic data to gauge demand in the world's second- largest consumer of the metal used in wires and pipes.
Global stockpiles of copper increased by 13.1 percent last month, adding to concerns that use may be declining. A report today may show U.S. manufacturing contracted for a fourth month,
while a report on June 6 will probably show U.S. companies trimmed workers in the longest streak since 2003.
Copper stockpiles in warehouses monitored by the London Metal Exchange stood at 124,950 tons on May 30, according to exchange data. Inventories in Shanghai have risen 74 percent so
far this year to 44,554 tons as of May 29, according to the Shanghai Futures Exchange.
Zambia resumed talks with mining companies about a new tax structure that came into effect on
April 1, the country's Daily Mail reported, citing Mines Minister Kalombo Mwansa. The government decided to engage the mining companies because of concern among some investors about how the tax would be calculated, the Lusaka-based paper said.
Mexico's copper production fell 24 percent in March from a year earlier because of a strike at the
Cananea mine, according to the National Statistics Agency. Production fell to 28,250 metric tons, the statistics agency said today in a statement on its Web site. A strike by some workers at Cananea, owned by Grupo Mexico SAB, the nation's largest mining company, has halted most production since last year.
Hedge-fund managers and other large speculators decreased their net-long position in New York copper futures in the week ended May 27, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. Speculative long positions, or bets prices will rise, outnumbered short positions by 3,661 contracts on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, the
Washington-based commission said in its Commitments of Traders report. Net-long positions fell by 1,379 contracts, or 27 percent, from a week earlier.
Shanghai copper stockpiles declined 2percent this week, the Shanghai Futures Exchange said in a report today on its Web site. Inventories, based on a survey of five warehouses monitored
by the Shanghai Futures Exchange, decreased by 1,032 metric tons to 44,554 tons this week.
MCX Copper June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 333.6 If market breaches below 333.6 may see prices to take further correction towards 330.7 and 328.4 However if it holds back above 338.9 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 341.2 and 344.1
Recommendations-MCX Copper June: Sell at 338 Target 332 and 327 SL 341.20
Nickel
Nickel is poised to rebound from almost a two-year low starting in the third quarter as rising
energy costs threaten supply, shifting the market into a shortfall this year, Merrill Lynch & Co said.
Demand will exceed supply by 17,000 metric tons this year, compared with a surplus in the first three months, the investment bank's analysts, including London-based Daniel Hynes, said today
in a report. The metal will average $30,000 a ton in the third quarter, up 5.2 percent from $28,500 a ton estimated in the current quarter.
MCX Nickel June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 913 If market breaches below 913 may see prices to take further correction towards 890 and 852 However if it holds back above 974 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 1012 and 1035
Recommendations: MCX Nickel June: Sell at 940 Target 925 and 915 SL 962
Zinc
Zinc slumped by the exchange-imposed daily limit to a record low in Shanghai on speculation demand may be slowing as global inventories climbed to a 20-month high.
Stockpiles of zinc in London Metal Exchange warehouses rose 11.6 percent this week to 143,625 metric tons today, the biggest weekly gain in almost seven months and the highest level since
September 2006. Zinc inventories in Shanghai fell 472 tons to 68,658 tons this week, still 70 percent above a year ago.
Hindustan Zinc Ltd., India's largest producer of the metal, lowered prices of both zinc and lead for the second time in a week to match global rates. The price of zinc was cut by 2,200 rupees, or 2.2 percent, to 97,700 rupees ($2,314) a metric ton from May 31.
Zinc stockpiles dropped 472 tons to 68,658 tons, based on a survey of seven warehouses in Shanghai.
MCX Zinc June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 83.3 If market breaches below 83.3 may see prices to take further correction towards 81.1 and 80.0 However if it holds back above 86.6 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 87.7 and 89.9
Recommendations- MCX Zinc June: Sell at 86 Target 84 and 82 SL 87.20
Lead
Hindustan Zinc Ltd., India's largest producer of the metal, lowered prices of both zinc and lead for the second time in a week to match global rates
Lead prices were reduced by 1,700 rupees, or 1.7 percent, to 96,700 rupees a ton.
MCX Lead June -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 81.8 If market breaches below 81.8 may see prices to take further correction towards 79.4 and 78.0 However if it holds back above 85.7 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 87.1 and 89.5
Recommendations –MCX Lead June: Sell at 84.80 Target 83 and 81 SL 85.50
Aluminium
Stockpiles of aluminum increased 3,864 tons, or 2 percent, to 189,781 tons, based on a survey of 11 warehouses in Shanghai, Guangdong, Wuxi and Hangzhou, the exchange said.
Dubai Aluminium Co., the United Arab Emirates aluminum producer building the world's largest smelter in Abu Dhabi, plans to produce 2.5 million metric tons a year of the light metal by 2015 to meet growing global demand. Dubal, as the company is also known, will raise aluminum
output to more than 1 million tons a year in 2008 after completing an expansion.
MCX Aluminium June -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 121.1 If market breaches below 121.1 may see prices to take further correction towards 118.9 and 117.6 However if it holds back above 124.7 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 126.0 and 128.2
Recommendations–MCX Aluminium June: Sell at 123.80 Target 122 and 120 SL 124.60
MCXARUN
9994500540
02 June 2008 10:00:40
Base Metals June 02, 2008
Major Economic Data:
Australia's Bureau of Statistics said that retail sales were down .2% in April, weaker than expected.
The U.S. Commerce Department said that personal incomes were up .2% in April while consumer spending was also up .2%, as expected. In March, personal incomes were revised up from .3% to .4%. In the same report, the core rate of personal consumption expenditures, an inflation gauge, was up just .1% in April and up 2.1% from a year ago.
The University of Michigan's index of consumer sentiment fell from 62.6 to 59.8 in May, the lowest in 28 years, but also up slightly from the estimate earlier this month.The Chicago purchasing managers' index increased from 48.3 to 49.1 in May, better than expected.
Statistics Canada said that real GDP was down .1% in the first quarter, but up 1.7% from a year ago, weaker than expected. It was the weakest performance in over four years.
Eurostat said that the unemployment rate for the Euro area 15 remained at 7.1% in April. They also estimated that consumer prices were up 3.6% in May from a year ago, up from a 3.3% gain in April.
Japan's Statistics Bureau said that consumer prices were down .1% in April, but up .8% from a year ago. The unemployment rate increased from 3.8% to 4.0% in April and household spending fell 2.7% in April from a year ago.
Real GDP in India was up 8.8% in the first quarter from a year ago, the same as in the fourth quarter of 2007.
Copper
Copper traded little changed in Asia after falling below $8,000 a metric ton last week as investors
awaited U.S. economic data to gauge demand in the world's second- largest consumer of the metal used in wires and pipes.
Global stockpiles of copper increased by 13.1 percent last month, adding to concerns that use may be declining. A report today may show U.S. manufacturing contracted for a fourth month,
while a report on June 6 will probably show U.S. companies trimmed workers in the longest streak since 2003.
Copper stockpiles in warehouses monitored by the London Metal Exchange stood at 124,950 tons on May 30, according to exchange data. Inventories in Shanghai have risen 74 percent so
far this year to 44,554 tons as of May 29, according to the Shanghai Futures Exchange.
Zambia resumed talks with mining companies about a new tax structure that came into effect on
April 1, the country's Daily Mail reported, citing Mines Minister Kalombo Mwansa. The government decided to engage the mining companies because of concern among some investors about how the tax would be calculated, the Lusaka-based paper said.
Mexico's copper production fell 24 percent in March from a year earlier because of a strike at the
Cananea mine, according to the National Statistics Agency. Production fell to 28,250 metric tons, the statistics agency said today in a statement on its Web site. A strike by some workers at Cananea, owned by Grupo Mexico SAB, the nation's largest mining company, has halted most production since last year.
Hedge-fund managers and other large speculators decreased their net-long position in New York copper futures in the week ended May 27, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. Speculative long positions, or bets prices will rise, outnumbered short positions by 3,661 contracts on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, the
Washington-based commission said in its Commitments of Traders report. Net-long positions fell by 1,379 contracts, or 27 percent, from a week earlier.
Shanghai copper stockpiles declined 2percent this week, the Shanghai Futures Exchange said in a report today on its Web site. Inventories, based on a survey of five warehouses monitored
by the Shanghai Futures Exchange, decreased by 1,032 metric tons to 44,554 tons this week.
MCX Copper June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 333.6 If market breaches below 333.6 may see prices to take further correction towards 330.7 and 328.4 However if it holds back above 338.9 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 341.2 and 344.1
Recommendations-MCX Copper June: Sell at 338 Target 332 and 327 SL 341.20
Nickel
Nickel is poised to rebound from almost a two-year low starting in the third quarter as rising
energy costs threaten supply, shifting the market into a shortfall this year, Merrill Lynch & Co said.
Demand will exceed supply by 17,000 metric tons this year, compared with a surplus in the first three months, the investment bank's analysts, including London-based Daniel Hynes, said today
in a report. The metal will average $30,000 a ton in the third quarter, up 5.2 percent from $28,500 a ton estimated in the current quarter.
MCX Nickel June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 913 If market breaches below 913 may see prices to take further correction towards 890 and 852 However if it holds back above 974 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 1012 and 1035
Recommendations: MCX Nickel June: Sell at 940 Target 925 and 915 SL 962
Zinc
Zinc slumped by the exchange-imposed daily limit to a record low in Shanghai on speculation demand may be slowing as global inventories climbed to a 20-month high.
Stockpiles of zinc in London Metal Exchange warehouses rose 11.6 percent this week to 143,625 metric tons today, the biggest weekly gain in almost seven months and the highest level since
September 2006. Zinc inventories in Shanghai fell 472 tons to 68,658 tons this week, still 70 percent above a year ago.
Hindustan Zinc Ltd., India's largest producer of the metal, lowered prices of both zinc and lead for the second time in a week to match global rates. The price of zinc was cut by 2,200 rupees, or 2.2 percent, to 97,700 rupees ($2,314) a metric ton from May 31.
Zinc stockpiles dropped 472 tons to 68,658 tons, based on a survey of seven warehouses in Shanghai.
MCX Zinc June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 83.3 If market breaches below 83.3 may see prices to take further correction towards 81.1 and 80.0 However if it holds back above 86.6 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 87.7 and 89.9
Recommendations- MCX Zinc June: Sell at 86 Target 84 and 82 SL 87.20
Lead
Hindustan Zinc Ltd., India's largest producer of the metal, lowered prices of both zinc and lead for the second time in a week to match global rates
Lead prices were reduced by 1,700 rupees, or 1.7 percent, to 96,700 rupees a ton.
MCX Lead June -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 81.8 If market breaches below 81.8 may see prices to take further correction towards 79.4 and 78.0 However if it holds back above 85.7 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 87.1 and 89.5
Recommendations –MCX Lead June: Sell at 84.80 Target 83 and 81 SL 85.50
Aluminium
Stockpiles of aluminum increased 3,864 tons, or 2 percent, to 189,781 tons, based on a survey of 11 warehouses in Shanghai, Guangdong, Wuxi and Hangzhou, the exchange said.
Dubai Aluminium Co., the United Arab Emirates aluminum producer building the world's largest smelter in Abu Dhabi, plans to produce 2.5 million metric tons a year of the light metal by 2015 to meet growing global demand. Dubal, as the company is also known, will raise aluminum
output to more than 1 million tons a year in 2008 after completing an expansion.
MCX Aluminium June -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 121.1 If market breaches below 121.1 may see prices to take further correction towards 118.9 and 117.6 However if it holds back above 124.7 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 126.0 and 128.2
Recommendations–MCX Aluminium June: Sell at 123.80 Target 122 and 120 SL 124.60
MCXARUN
9994500540
bullion intraday
Bullion
02 June 2008 10:21:32
Bullion June 02 2008
Major Headlines:
Gold rose in New York on end of the week as some purchasers took advantage of a 4.8 percent plunge in price this week. Silver climbed more than 2 percent.The metal is headed for the worst weekly performance since mid-March as the dollar strengthened this week and crude oil fell from a record. Gold reached $1,033.90 on March 17, the highest ever, as the euro and crude oil set previous records
A rebound in oil prices also sparked purchases of precious metals, Gold moved in tandem with oil 92 percent of the time in 2007. Since March 17, gold has dropped, while oil has surged
Platinum also slid as the dollar was poised for its second monthly advance against the euro and it fell for a fourth consecutive session, trading down $33, or 1.7 percent, to $1,963.50 an ounce as it also headed for its first weekly decline in four.
This loss in the precious metal was extremely supported by the declining crude and the strengthened dollar. Gold is not visualized as a hedge against inflation no more as the US currency gets stronger; as a result the yellow safe asset is no longer an appeal to investors.
The dollar boosted as soon as the US growth was revised to 0.9% from the initial estimate of 0.6 percent. This growth enlarged expectations that the Federal bank will hike interest rates and as a result the dollar gained massively in its value and against majors pulling investors away from oil and gold towards it promising high returns.
Precious metals are trading lower on the spot market Friday, with platinum leading the way down, and market participants said the metals could fall further if the dollar continues to rise against the euro and crude oil falls
A slowdown in oil price rises could ease inflationary pressure, which could dampen the relative attractiveness of precious metals as inflation-hedge asset
U.S.Economy:
The U.S. Commerce Department said that personal incomes were up .2% in April while consumer spending was also up .2%, as expected. In March, personal incomes were revised up from .3% to .4%.
In the same report, the core rate of personal consumption expenditures, an inflation gauge, was up just .1% in April and up 2.1% from a year ago. The March Eurodollars are steady to higher.
The University of Michigan's index of consumer sentiment fell from 62.6 to 59.8 in May, the lowest in 28 years, but also up slightly from the estimate earlier this month.
The Chicago purchasing managers' index increased from 48.3 to 49.1 in May, better than expected.
Currencies update:
Statistics Canada said that real GDP was down .1% in the first quarter, but up 1.7% from a year ago, weaker than expected. It was the weakest performance in over four years. The June Canadian dollar is trading lower.
Eurostat said that the unemployment rate for the Euro area 15 remained at 7.1% in April. They also estimated that consumer prices were up 3.6% in May from a year ago, up from a 3.3% gain in April. The June euro is steady to higher.
Japan's Statistics Bureau said that consumer prices were down .1% in April, but up .8% from a year ago. The unemployment rate increased from 3.8% to 4.0% in April and household spending fell 2.7% in April from a year ago. The June yen is steady.
Real GDP in India was up 8.8% in the first quarter from a year ago, the same as in the fourth quarter of 2007
MCX Gold June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 12120 If market breaches below 12120 may see prices to take further correction towards 12052 and 11980 However if it holds back above 12264 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 12348 and 12476
Recommendations–MCX Gold June: Sell at 12290 Target 12220 and 12150 Stoploss at 12355
MCX Silver July - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 22964 If market breaches below 22964 may see prices to take further correction towards 22617 and 22349 However if it holds back above 23579 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 23847 and 24194
Recommendations-MCX Silver July: Sell at 23690 Target 23450 and 23280 stoploss at 23865
MCXARUN
9994500540
02 June 2008 10:21:32
Bullion June 02 2008
Major Headlines:
Gold rose in New York on end of the week as some purchasers took advantage of a 4.8 percent plunge in price this week. Silver climbed more than 2 percent.The metal is headed for the worst weekly performance since mid-March as the dollar strengthened this week and crude oil fell from a record. Gold reached $1,033.90 on March 17, the highest ever, as the euro and crude oil set previous records
A rebound in oil prices also sparked purchases of precious metals, Gold moved in tandem with oil 92 percent of the time in 2007. Since March 17, gold has dropped, while oil has surged
Platinum also slid as the dollar was poised for its second monthly advance against the euro and it fell for a fourth consecutive session, trading down $33, or 1.7 percent, to $1,963.50 an ounce as it also headed for its first weekly decline in four.
This loss in the precious metal was extremely supported by the declining crude and the strengthened dollar. Gold is not visualized as a hedge against inflation no more as the US currency gets stronger; as a result the yellow safe asset is no longer an appeal to investors.
The dollar boosted as soon as the US growth was revised to 0.9% from the initial estimate of 0.6 percent. This growth enlarged expectations that the Federal bank will hike interest rates and as a result the dollar gained massively in its value and against majors pulling investors away from oil and gold towards it promising high returns.
Precious metals are trading lower on the spot market Friday, with platinum leading the way down, and market participants said the metals could fall further if the dollar continues to rise against the euro and crude oil falls
A slowdown in oil price rises could ease inflationary pressure, which could dampen the relative attractiveness of precious metals as inflation-hedge asset
U.S.Economy:
The U.S. Commerce Department said that personal incomes were up .2% in April while consumer spending was also up .2%, as expected. In March, personal incomes were revised up from .3% to .4%.
In the same report, the core rate of personal consumption expenditures, an inflation gauge, was up just .1% in April and up 2.1% from a year ago. The March Eurodollars are steady to higher.
The University of Michigan's index of consumer sentiment fell from 62.6 to 59.8 in May, the lowest in 28 years, but also up slightly from the estimate earlier this month.
The Chicago purchasing managers' index increased from 48.3 to 49.1 in May, better than expected.
Currencies update:
Statistics Canada said that real GDP was down .1% in the first quarter, but up 1.7% from a year ago, weaker than expected. It was the weakest performance in over four years. The June Canadian dollar is trading lower.
Eurostat said that the unemployment rate for the Euro area 15 remained at 7.1% in April. They also estimated that consumer prices were up 3.6% in May from a year ago, up from a 3.3% gain in April. The June euro is steady to higher.
Japan's Statistics Bureau said that consumer prices were down .1% in April, but up .8% from a year ago. The unemployment rate increased from 3.8% to 4.0% in April and household spending fell 2.7% in April from a year ago. The June yen is steady.
Real GDP in India was up 8.8% in the first quarter from a year ago, the same as in the fourth quarter of 2007
MCX Gold June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 12120 If market breaches below 12120 may see prices to take further correction towards 12052 and 11980 However if it holds back above 12264 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 12348 and 12476
Recommendations–MCX Gold June: Sell at 12290 Target 12220 and 12150 Stoploss at 12355
MCX Silver July - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 22964 If market breaches below 22964 may see prices to take further correction towards 22617 and 22349 However if it holds back above 23579 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 23847 and 24194
Recommendations-MCX Silver July: Sell at 23690 Target 23450 and 23280 stoploss at 23865
MCXARUN
9994500540
bullion intraday
Bullion
02 June 2008 10:21:32
Bullion June 02 2008
Major Headlines:
Gold rose in New York on end of the week as some purchasers took advantage of a 4.8 percent plunge in price this week. Silver climbed more than 2 percent.The metal is headed for the worst weekly performance since mid-March as the dollar strengthened this week and crude oil fell from a record. Gold reached $1,033.90 on March 17, the highest ever, as the euro and crude oil set previous records
A rebound in oil prices also sparked purchases of precious metals, Gold moved in tandem with oil 92 percent of the time in 2007. Since March 17, gold has dropped, while oil has surged
Platinum also slid as the dollar was poised for its second monthly advance against the euro and it fell for a fourth consecutive session, trading down $33, or 1.7 percent, to $1,963.50 an ounce as it also headed for its first weekly decline in four.
This loss in the precious metal was extremely supported by the declining crude and the strengthened dollar. Gold is not visualized as a hedge against inflation no more as the US currency gets stronger; as a result the yellow safe asset is no longer an appeal to investors.
The dollar boosted as soon as the US growth was revised to 0.9% from the initial estimate of 0.6 percent. This growth enlarged expectations that the Federal bank will hike interest rates and as a result the dollar gained massively in its value and against majors pulling investors away from oil and gold towards it promising high returns.
Precious metals are trading lower on the spot market Friday, with platinum leading the way down, and market participants said the metals could fall further if the dollar continues to rise against the euro and crude oil falls
A slowdown in oil price rises could ease inflationary pressure, which could dampen the relative attractiveness of precious metals as inflation-hedge asset
U.S.Economy:
The U.S. Commerce Department said that personal incomes were up .2% in April while consumer spending was also up .2%, as expected. In March, personal incomes were revised up from .3% to .4%.
In the same report, the core rate of personal consumption expenditures, an inflation gauge, was up just .1% in April and up 2.1% from a year ago. The March Eurodollars are steady to higher.
The University of Michigan's index of consumer sentiment fell from 62.6 to 59.8 in May, the lowest in 28 years, but also up slightly from the estimate earlier this month.
The Chicago purchasing managers' index increased from 48.3 to 49.1 in May, better than expected.
Currencies update:
Statistics Canada said that real GDP was down .1% in the first quarter, but up 1.7% from a year ago, weaker than expected. It was the weakest performance in over four years. The June Canadian dollar is trading lower.
Eurostat said that the unemployment rate for the Euro area 15 remained at 7.1% in April. They also estimated that consumer prices were up 3.6% in May from a year ago, up from a 3.3% gain in April. The June euro is steady to higher.
Japan's Statistics Bureau said that consumer prices were down .1% in April, but up .8% from a year ago. The unemployment rate increased from 3.8% to 4.0% in April and household spending fell 2.7% in April from a year ago. The June yen is steady.
Real GDP in India was up 8.8% in the first quarter from a year ago, the same as in the fourth quarter of 2007
MCX Gold June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 12120 If market breaches below 12120 may see prices to take further correction towards 12052 and 11980 However if it holds back above 12264 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 12348 and 12476
Recommendations–MCX Gold June: Sell at 12290 Target 12220 and 12150 Stoploss at 12355
MCX Silver July - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 22964 If market breaches below 22964 may see prices to take further correction towards 22617 and 22349 However if it holds back above 23579 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 23847 and 24194
Recommendations-MCX Silver July: Sell at 23690 Target 23450 and 23280 stoploss at 23865
MCXARUN
9994500540
02 June 2008 10:21:32
Bullion June 02 2008
Major Headlines:
Gold rose in New York on end of the week as some purchasers took advantage of a 4.8 percent plunge in price this week. Silver climbed more than 2 percent.The metal is headed for the worst weekly performance since mid-March as the dollar strengthened this week and crude oil fell from a record. Gold reached $1,033.90 on March 17, the highest ever, as the euro and crude oil set previous records
A rebound in oil prices also sparked purchases of precious metals, Gold moved in tandem with oil 92 percent of the time in 2007. Since March 17, gold has dropped, while oil has surged
Platinum also slid as the dollar was poised for its second monthly advance against the euro and it fell for a fourth consecutive session, trading down $33, or 1.7 percent, to $1,963.50 an ounce as it also headed for its first weekly decline in four.
This loss in the precious metal was extremely supported by the declining crude and the strengthened dollar. Gold is not visualized as a hedge against inflation no more as the US currency gets stronger; as a result the yellow safe asset is no longer an appeal to investors.
The dollar boosted as soon as the US growth was revised to 0.9% from the initial estimate of 0.6 percent. This growth enlarged expectations that the Federal bank will hike interest rates and as a result the dollar gained massively in its value and against majors pulling investors away from oil and gold towards it promising high returns.
Precious metals are trading lower on the spot market Friday, with platinum leading the way down, and market participants said the metals could fall further if the dollar continues to rise against the euro and crude oil falls
A slowdown in oil price rises could ease inflationary pressure, which could dampen the relative attractiveness of precious metals as inflation-hedge asset
U.S.Economy:
The U.S. Commerce Department said that personal incomes were up .2% in April while consumer spending was also up .2%, as expected. In March, personal incomes were revised up from .3% to .4%.
In the same report, the core rate of personal consumption expenditures, an inflation gauge, was up just .1% in April and up 2.1% from a year ago. The March Eurodollars are steady to higher.
The University of Michigan's index of consumer sentiment fell from 62.6 to 59.8 in May, the lowest in 28 years, but also up slightly from the estimate earlier this month.
The Chicago purchasing managers' index increased from 48.3 to 49.1 in May, better than expected.
Currencies update:
Statistics Canada said that real GDP was down .1% in the first quarter, but up 1.7% from a year ago, weaker than expected. It was the weakest performance in over four years. The June Canadian dollar is trading lower.
Eurostat said that the unemployment rate for the Euro area 15 remained at 7.1% in April. They also estimated that consumer prices were up 3.6% in May from a year ago, up from a 3.3% gain in April. The June euro is steady to higher.
Japan's Statistics Bureau said that consumer prices were down .1% in April, but up .8% from a year ago. The unemployment rate increased from 3.8% to 4.0% in April and household spending fell 2.7% in April from a year ago. The June yen is steady.
Real GDP in India was up 8.8% in the first quarter from a year ago, the same as in the fourth quarter of 2007
MCX Gold June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 12120 If market breaches below 12120 may see prices to take further correction towards 12052 and 11980 However if it holds back above 12264 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 12348 and 12476
Recommendations–MCX Gold June: Sell at 12290 Target 12220 and 12150 Stoploss at 12355
MCX Silver July - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 22964 If market breaches below 22964 may see prices to take further correction towards 22617 and 22349 However if it holds back above 23579 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 23847 and 24194
Recommendations-MCX Silver July: Sell at 23690 Target 23450 and 23280 stoploss at 23865
MCXARUN
9994500540
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