Energy Apr 30, 2008
Expected Weekly EIA Inventory:
Event Survey
Prior-2421K
expect -950K
Major Headlines:
A stronger dollar gave investors another reason to sell crude Tuesday, Commodities such as oil are less effective hedges against inflation when the dollar is gaining ground, and a stronger greenback makes oil more expensive to investors overseas. Analysts believe oil's run from $65 a year ago to a record near $120 Monday has been fuelled in large part by the dollar's protracted decline.
Oil prices plunged as workers at Scotland's biggest refinery returned to work on Tuesday after a recent strike, while expectations for the dollar to strengthen dampened sentiment for commodities across the board.
Crude oil futures fell over $2 a barrel on Tuesday as fears over U.K. supply eased and the dollar strengthened. Workers at Ineos' Grangemouth refinery in Scotland ended two-day strike, signaling the eventual restart of the 700,000 barrel-a-day North Sea Forties Pipeline System, or FPS.
The Grangemouth strike has come to an end and some people have seen this as a bearish sign, putting the market under pressure, But the fact that it may take a week or more for the oil flow to reach full capacity (has) kept any correction underpinned
The market will also be keeping a close eye on Nigeria, a major supplier of oil to the U.S., where a work slowdown and militant attacks have cut production.
Nigeria is clearly the key problem facing the energy markets right now, and has the potential to reignite the price advance if supply glitches drag on for much longer, or more ominously, if the majors decide to walk away from the country altogether, something they have done on prior occasions
Energy prices fell sharply Tuesday as the market-absorbed data showing demand is falling even as supplies are rising. Gas prices inched higher at the pump, continuing their record-breaking press toward $4 a gallon
Natural gas futures fell Tuesday as private forecasters called for mild, normal temperatures in the U.S. Midwest and Northeast from May through August, indicating gas demand might be flat or lower compared to recent years.
Earthsat and other private forecasters are predicting normal temperatures in the large gas consuming areas of the Midwest and East, based on data over the last 30 years. If anything, this summer is expected to be cooler than the last three in Chicago, New York, Boston and other areas east of the Mississippi, Setree said. Temperatures in the desert Southwest and parts of Texas could rise above normal this summer, according to Earthsat.
MCX Crude Oil May
Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicator is rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 4739 levels. If market breaches 4739 may see prices to take further upside towards 4802and 4851 however if it holds back below 4627 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 4578 and 4515
Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil May: Sell at 4730 Target 4645 and 4600 Stop loss 4780
MCX Natural gas May
Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicator is rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 442.30 levels. If market breaches 442.30, may see prices to take further upside towards 448.70 and 454.270 However if it holds back below 430.40 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 424.90 and 418.50
Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas May: Sell at 447 Target 440 and 435 Stop loss at 452
MCXARUN
9994500540
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
basemetals intraday
Base Metals April 30, 2008
Major Economic Data:
The Conference Board said that its index of consumer confidence fell from 65.9 to 62.3 in April, better than expected, but also the lowest in five years. The March eurodollars are steady to higher.
The Conference Board said that its index of leading indicators for Australia was down .2% in February, to 184.8. Three of the seven indicators showed positive gains. The June Australian dollar is trading lower.
Copper fell after a strengthening dollar reduced the appeal of commodities as a hedge against inflation. MCX Copper June traded bit low near 342.35 and closed with slight loss following tight movement at LME.
The U.S. currency is headed for the first monthly advance this year against the euro on speculation that the Federal Reserve may signal a pause in rate cuts after six reductions since September. Before today, when it rose as much as 0.7 percent, the dollar fell 6.8 percent against the euro this year, helping to spur a 29 percent gain in copper futures.
Copper warehouse stock at LME, net change was -675 MT to 109650 MT
Codelco, the world's largest copper producer, shut its second-biggest mine because of protests by contract workers, a union leader said. Codelco halted operations after protesters threw stones last night at buses carrying Codelco employees to the El Teniente mine in central Chile, Pablo Reyes, a union leader for Codelco workers, said in a telephone interview. Employees may return to the mine later today, he said.
Chile's peso dropped to its lowest in more than a week as the price of copper, the country's biggest export, fell amid a strengthening dollar.
Copper production in Zambia, Africa's biggest producer of the metal, fell 8.8 percent in the first quarter due to flooding, the central bank said. Output declined to 128,593 metric tons in the three months through March, from 141,077 tons in the previous quarter, the Bank of Zambia said in a statement on its Web site yesterday. Production rose from 114,913 tons in the same period a year earlier, it said.
MCX Copper June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 346.7 levels. If market breaches 346.7 may see prices to take further upside towards 349.1 and 351.2, however if it holds back below 342.1 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 340.0 and 337.6
Recommendations-MCX Copper June: Sell at 345.50-346 Target 341 and 338 SL 349
Nickel
MCX Nickel lost almost 1% following movement at LME and weakness in Bullion, Energy and other base metals supported the movement in Nickel.
Nickel warehouse stock at LME, net change was –66 MT to 51708 MT
MCX Nickel May - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 1153.0 If market breaches below 1153.0 may see prices to take further correction towards 1139.5 and 1125.0, However if it holds back above 1181.0 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 1195.5 and 1209.0
Recommendations: MCX Nickel May: Sell at 1170-75 Target 1155 and 1130 SL 1182
Zinc
MCX Zinc lost almost 1.5% following bearish sentiment at international exchanges, while weak ness in metals and energy also supported the movement, though LME inventory data was much supportive for the prices.
Zinc warehouse stock at LME, net change was –1700 MT to 126850 MT
Cia. Minera Antamina, the world's largest combined copper and zinc mine, said zinc output increased by 7.5 percent in the first quarter, magazine Semana Economica reported.
Antamina produced 77.6 million pounds (35.2 million kilograms) of zinc on rising ore grades, the Lima-based weekly said in its April 27 edition. First-quarter copper production was little changed at 74.1 million pounds, it said.
MCX Zinc May - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 90.5 If market breaches below 90.5 may see prices to take further correction towards 89.9 and 88.9 However if it holds back above 92.1 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 93.1 and 93.7
Recommendations- MCX Zinc May: Sell at 91.50 Target 89 and 87.50 Stop loss at 92.15
Lead
MCX Lead may remain almost weak for the day, market registered more then 1.5% loss following movement at LME and inventory data pushed market more down.
Lead warehouse stock at LME, net change was 300 MT to 56150 MT
MCX Lead May -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices.. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 110.8 If market breaches below 110.8 may see prices to take further correction towards 109.9 and 109.4, However if it holds back above 112.1 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 112.6 and 113.5
Recommendations –MCX Lead May: Sell at 111.40 Target 109.60 and 108.50 SL 112.30
Aluminium
MCX Aluminium traded in tight range of 118.55 –119.50, movement was less then 1 Rs, thin volume and weakness in other base metals pushed metal down but over movement was in a tight range.
Aluminium warehouse stock at LME, net change was –750 MT to 1042075 MT
National Aluminium Co., India's biggest producer of alumina, said fourth-quarter profit fell 31 percent as a stronger rupee cut the value of overseas sales. Net income fell to 4.09 billion rupees ($101 million) in the three months ended March 31, from 5.91 billion rupees a year earlier.
South Korea's Public Procurement Service, a state-run body that manages strategic commodities, bought 6,000 metric tons of aluminium ingots from LG International Corp. at a tender today The procurement agency bought 3,000 tons of Western high-grade primary aluminum for shipment by June 30 at a premium of $83 a ton over London Metal Exchange official cash settlement prices, according to a notice posted on its Web site. The premium covers the costs for shipping and insurance.
MCX Aluminium May -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 118.7 If market breaches below 118.7 may see prices to take further correction towards 118.1 and 117.7, However if it holds back above119.6 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 120.0 and 120.6
Recommendations–MCX Aluminium May: Sell at 119.20 Target 118 and 117 SL 120.80
MCXARUN
9994500540
Major Economic Data:
The Conference Board said that its index of consumer confidence fell from 65.9 to 62.3 in April, better than expected, but also the lowest in five years. The March eurodollars are steady to higher.
The Conference Board said that its index of leading indicators for Australia was down .2% in February, to 184.8. Three of the seven indicators showed positive gains. The June Australian dollar is trading lower.
Copper fell after a strengthening dollar reduced the appeal of commodities as a hedge against inflation. MCX Copper June traded bit low near 342.35 and closed with slight loss following tight movement at LME.
The U.S. currency is headed for the first monthly advance this year against the euro on speculation that the Federal Reserve may signal a pause in rate cuts after six reductions since September. Before today, when it rose as much as 0.7 percent, the dollar fell 6.8 percent against the euro this year, helping to spur a 29 percent gain in copper futures.
Copper warehouse stock at LME, net change was -675 MT to 109650 MT
Codelco, the world's largest copper producer, shut its second-biggest mine because of protests by contract workers, a union leader said. Codelco halted operations after protesters threw stones last night at buses carrying Codelco employees to the El Teniente mine in central Chile, Pablo Reyes, a union leader for Codelco workers, said in a telephone interview. Employees may return to the mine later today, he said.
Chile's peso dropped to its lowest in more than a week as the price of copper, the country's biggest export, fell amid a strengthening dollar.
Copper production in Zambia, Africa's biggest producer of the metal, fell 8.8 percent in the first quarter due to flooding, the central bank said. Output declined to 128,593 metric tons in the three months through March, from 141,077 tons in the previous quarter, the Bank of Zambia said in a statement on its Web site yesterday. Production rose from 114,913 tons in the same period a year earlier, it said.
MCX Copper June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 346.7 levels. If market breaches 346.7 may see prices to take further upside towards 349.1 and 351.2, however if it holds back below 342.1 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 340.0 and 337.6
Recommendations-MCX Copper June: Sell at 345.50-346 Target 341 and 338 SL 349
Nickel
MCX Nickel lost almost 1% following movement at LME and weakness in Bullion, Energy and other base metals supported the movement in Nickel.
Nickel warehouse stock at LME, net change was –66 MT to 51708 MT
MCX Nickel May - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 1153.0 If market breaches below 1153.0 may see prices to take further correction towards 1139.5 and 1125.0, However if it holds back above 1181.0 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 1195.5 and 1209.0
Recommendations: MCX Nickel May: Sell at 1170-75 Target 1155 and 1130 SL 1182
Zinc
MCX Zinc lost almost 1.5% following bearish sentiment at international exchanges, while weak ness in metals and energy also supported the movement, though LME inventory data was much supportive for the prices.
Zinc warehouse stock at LME, net change was –1700 MT to 126850 MT
Cia. Minera Antamina, the world's largest combined copper and zinc mine, said zinc output increased by 7.5 percent in the first quarter, magazine Semana Economica reported.
Antamina produced 77.6 million pounds (35.2 million kilograms) of zinc on rising ore grades, the Lima-based weekly said in its April 27 edition. First-quarter copper production was little changed at 74.1 million pounds, it said.
MCX Zinc May - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 90.5 If market breaches below 90.5 may see prices to take further correction towards 89.9 and 88.9 However if it holds back above 92.1 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 93.1 and 93.7
Recommendations- MCX Zinc May: Sell at 91.50 Target 89 and 87.50 Stop loss at 92.15
Lead
MCX Lead may remain almost weak for the day, market registered more then 1.5% loss following movement at LME and inventory data pushed market more down.
Lead warehouse stock at LME, net change was 300 MT to 56150 MT
MCX Lead May -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices.. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 110.8 If market breaches below 110.8 may see prices to take further correction towards 109.9 and 109.4, However if it holds back above 112.1 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 112.6 and 113.5
Recommendations –MCX Lead May: Sell at 111.40 Target 109.60 and 108.50 SL 112.30
Aluminium
MCX Aluminium traded in tight range of 118.55 –119.50, movement was less then 1 Rs, thin volume and weakness in other base metals pushed metal down but over movement was in a tight range.
Aluminium warehouse stock at LME, net change was –750 MT to 1042075 MT
National Aluminium Co., India's biggest producer of alumina, said fourth-quarter profit fell 31 percent as a stronger rupee cut the value of overseas sales. Net income fell to 4.09 billion rupees ($101 million) in the three months ended March 31, from 5.91 billion rupees a year earlier.
South Korea's Public Procurement Service, a state-run body that manages strategic commodities, bought 6,000 metric tons of aluminium ingots from LG International Corp. at a tender today The procurement agency bought 3,000 tons of Western high-grade primary aluminum for shipment by June 30 at a premium of $83 a ton over London Metal Exchange official cash settlement prices, according to a notice posted on its Web site. The premium covers the costs for shipping and insurance.
MCX Aluminium May -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 118.7 If market breaches below 118.7 may see prices to take further correction towards 118.1 and 117.7, However if it holds back above119.6 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 120.0 and 120.6
Recommendations–MCX Aluminium May: Sell at 119.20 Target 118 and 117 SL 120.80
MCXARUN
9994500540
bullion intraday
Bullion Apr 30, 2008
Major Headlines:
Indian spot gold closed marginally lower led by overseas cues, and market participants said they expect Gold imports are expected to improve this month and may be at around 40-50 Tones as prices declined to the lows and also as physical buyers who were on the sidelines bought the yellow metal to stock it up before the wedding and festival season
Gold fell to a four-week low as the dollar climbed against the euro, eroding the appeal of precious metals and commodities as alternative investments. Silver also declined.
ECB Says One Member Bank Sold Gold Worth Eu18 Mln In last Week and Before yesterday, gold and commodities gained more than 30 percent in the past 12 months, while the dollar slumped 13 percent against the euro
The dollar rose on speculation the Federal Reserve will signal today that it's close to pausing interest-rate cuts. Gold has gained 6.4 percent this year, while the euro has advanced 6.7 percent against the dollar
Anglo Platinum Ltd., the world's biggest producer of the metal, today said first-quarter output fell 24 percent to 428,600 ounces after power cuts affected South African mines. The precious metal, used to make jewelry and devices that cut exhaust emissions from cars, has climbed 28 percent this year.
Gold fell for the first time in three days in London as the dollar strengthened against the Euro, diminishing the metal's appeal as a hedge against further drops in the U.S. currency. Silver and platinum also declined.
Platinum and palladium fell in New York, following gold, after the dollar rose, reducing the appeal of precious metals as an inflation hedge.
The dollar strengthened to a three-week high against the euro on speculation that the Federal Reserve may signal a pause in interest-rate cuts today after making six reductions since September. Platinum, mostly traded in dollars, rose 33 percent last year as the dollar fell 9.5 percent against the euro
Interest in gold as an alternative asset waned as the dollar rebounded in the past week from its record low against the euro, and oil's climb to as high as $119.93 a barrel yesterday failed to trigger interest in bullion as a hedge against inflation
U.S. Economy:
The Federal Reserve meets today and tomorrow and is expected to reduce the federal funds rate by a quarter of a percent tomorrow. The June U.S. dollar is trading higher as many are wondering if the seven-month campaign of interest rate cuts is about over.
The Conference Board said that its index of consumer confidence fell from 65.9 to 62.3 in April, better than expected, but also the lowest in five years. The March Eurodollars are steady to higher.
The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller home price index showed that U.S. home prices were down 12.7% in February from a year ago. Three of the twenty cities surveyed did not show a decline
Currency Update:
The Conference Board said that its index of leading indicators for Australia was down .2% in February, to 184.8. Three of the seven indicators showed positive gains. The June Australian dollar is trading lower
The U.S. currency headed for its first monthly advance versus the yen and euro since December as traders increased bets the Fed will stop lowering borrowing costs after a quarter-percentage point reduction today.
MCX Gold June
Technical Outlook: The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at11426 If market breaches below 11426 may see prices to take further correction towards 11372 and11279 however if it holds back above 11573 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 11666 and 11720
Recommendations–MCX Gold June: Sell at11540 Target11430 and 11360 Stoploss at11590
MCX Silver May
Technical Outlook: The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 21979 If market breaches below 21979 may see prices to take further correction towards 21809 and 21566 however if it holds back above 22392 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 22635 and 22805
Recommendations-MCX Silver May: Sell at 22250 Target 22050 and 21860 Stop loss at 22420
MCXARUN
9994500540
Major Headlines:
Indian spot gold closed marginally lower led by overseas cues, and market participants said they expect Gold imports are expected to improve this month and may be at around 40-50 Tones as prices declined to the lows and also as physical buyers who were on the sidelines bought the yellow metal to stock it up before the wedding and festival season
Gold fell to a four-week low as the dollar climbed against the euro, eroding the appeal of precious metals and commodities as alternative investments. Silver also declined.
ECB Says One Member Bank Sold Gold Worth Eu18 Mln In last Week and Before yesterday, gold and commodities gained more than 30 percent in the past 12 months, while the dollar slumped 13 percent against the euro
The dollar rose on speculation the Federal Reserve will signal today that it's close to pausing interest-rate cuts. Gold has gained 6.4 percent this year, while the euro has advanced 6.7 percent against the dollar
Anglo Platinum Ltd., the world's biggest producer of the metal, today said first-quarter output fell 24 percent to 428,600 ounces after power cuts affected South African mines. The precious metal, used to make jewelry and devices that cut exhaust emissions from cars, has climbed 28 percent this year.
Gold fell for the first time in three days in London as the dollar strengthened against the Euro, diminishing the metal's appeal as a hedge against further drops in the U.S. currency. Silver and platinum also declined.
Platinum and palladium fell in New York, following gold, after the dollar rose, reducing the appeal of precious metals as an inflation hedge.
The dollar strengthened to a three-week high against the euro on speculation that the Federal Reserve may signal a pause in interest-rate cuts today after making six reductions since September. Platinum, mostly traded in dollars, rose 33 percent last year as the dollar fell 9.5 percent against the euro
Interest in gold as an alternative asset waned as the dollar rebounded in the past week from its record low against the euro, and oil's climb to as high as $119.93 a barrel yesterday failed to trigger interest in bullion as a hedge against inflation
U.S. Economy:
The Federal Reserve meets today and tomorrow and is expected to reduce the federal funds rate by a quarter of a percent tomorrow. The June U.S. dollar is trading higher as many are wondering if the seven-month campaign of interest rate cuts is about over.
The Conference Board said that its index of consumer confidence fell from 65.9 to 62.3 in April, better than expected, but also the lowest in five years. The March Eurodollars are steady to higher.
The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller home price index showed that U.S. home prices were down 12.7% in February from a year ago. Three of the twenty cities surveyed did not show a decline
Currency Update:
The Conference Board said that its index of leading indicators for Australia was down .2% in February, to 184.8. Three of the seven indicators showed positive gains. The June Australian dollar is trading lower
The U.S. currency headed for its first monthly advance versus the yen and euro since December as traders increased bets the Fed will stop lowering borrowing costs after a quarter-percentage point reduction today.
MCX Gold June
Technical Outlook: The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at11426 If market breaches below 11426 may see prices to take further correction towards 11372 and11279 however if it holds back above 11573 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 11666 and 11720
Recommendations–MCX Gold June: Sell at11540 Target11430 and 11360 Stoploss at11590
MCX Silver May
Technical Outlook: The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 21979 If market breaches below 21979 may see prices to take further correction towards 21809 and 21566 however if it holds back above 22392 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 22635 and 22805
Recommendations-MCX Silver May: Sell at 22250 Target 22050 and 21860 Stop loss at 22420
MCXARUN
9994500540
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
It’s all on the Fed meeting for precious metals and energies. Interest rate expectation has been factored in by the markets. If the Fed wants a stronger US dollar they will signal an interest rate pause. If they want a weaker US dollar they will be hawkish or may not signal an end to the interest rate cuts. A weaker US dollar has boosted the US manufacturing sector in 2008. Job losses in the US are mainly in the financial services sector while the manufacturing sector adds to jobs.
Copper is expected to remain firm as output from Mexico’s Cananea copper plant has been delayed indefinitely. Strikes in Chile are already continuing. Copper is expected to remain firm and maybe even test new highs. The only negative factor for copper will be liquidation of long positions by fund managers or a technical breakdown. Zinc and Lead have been trading with a softer bias. Zinc and lead should break out from the current trading range sooner. LME zinc (3 month) has to break $2411 till then it will find sellers at higher prices. LME Lead (3 months) has to break $2833 to attract short term investors. Retail investors are long in base metals (in our view). At lower prices in zinc and lead the risk to return ratio moves in favor of the buyer.
COPPER -- JULY FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $404.0
Copper will break the $380-$404 wider trading range soon. Inability to edge higher will result in profit taking to $365 and below. LME copper (3 months) has to break $8700-8900 zone else fall to $8058.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
$116.20 price target achieved. A close below $116.20 on Friday will result in $109.60 next week. Key resistance $121.40.
INDIAN RUPEE (USD/INR)
The Rupee weakened to 40.49 against the US dollar yesterday. US dollar demand from state run banks (possibly due to defense related payment) and also demand from a large private sector bank. This demand is not yet over which can result in the rupee opening higher around 40.65. As and when this demand gets over the rupee will once again get stronger. Technically the rupee has to break the 40.82-40.88 zone till then it will find sellers at higher levels. Failure of the rupee to break 40.88 by next week will result in a fall back to 39.90. RBI left interest rate unchanged and instead increased the cash reserve ratio (CRR) in its annual policy meeting. This is just an inflation controlling move and nothing else.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Copper is expected to remain firm as output from Mexico’s Cananea copper plant has been delayed indefinitely. Strikes in Chile are already continuing. Copper is expected to remain firm and maybe even test new highs. The only negative factor for copper will be liquidation of long positions by fund managers or a technical breakdown. Zinc and Lead have been trading with a softer bias. Zinc and lead should break out from the current trading range sooner. LME zinc (3 month) has to break $2411 till then it will find sellers at higher prices. LME Lead (3 months) has to break $2833 to attract short term investors. Retail investors are long in base metals (in our view). At lower prices in zinc and lead the risk to return ratio moves in favor of the buyer.
COPPER -- JULY FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $404.0
Copper will break the $380-$404 wider trading range soon. Inability to edge higher will result in profit taking to $365 and below. LME copper (3 months) has to break $8700-8900 zone else fall to $8058.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
$116.20 price target achieved. A close below $116.20 on Friday will result in $109.60 next week. Key resistance $121.40.
INDIAN RUPEE (USD/INR)
The Rupee weakened to 40.49 against the US dollar yesterday. US dollar demand from state run banks (possibly due to defense related payment) and also demand from a large private sector bank. This demand is not yet over which can result in the rupee opening higher around 40.65. As and when this demand gets over the rupee will once again get stronger. Technically the rupee has to break the 40.82-40.88 zone till then it will find sellers at higher levels. Failure of the rupee to break 40.88 by next week will result in a fall back to 39.90. RBI left interest rate unchanged and instead increased the cash reserve ratio (CRR) in its annual policy meeting. This is just an inflation controlling move and nothing else.
MCXARUN
9994500540
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