Monday, April 7, 2008

safetrade calls

GOLD

we book profit on buy abv 11730-780, now good resist at 11930. for the day buy only abv 11930 S/L 11905 and T/p 11675-12025/12075 Max upto 12175 OR sell below 11700 S/L 11720 and T/p 11675-650/upto 11575 (any time close above 12175/12400/13100/13425 bullish while close below 11650/11375/11000 bearish for medium term)

SILVER

book profit on buy abv 23800, for the day buy only abv 23275 S/L 23200 and T/p 23350-450/550/upto 23700 OR buy ard 22840-50 S/L 22800 and T/p 22950-23050, only sustain fall below 22450 down rally again (any time close below 22450/21725/21325-250/20150/19390/ 18600-250/17850 bearish rally while close above 23425/ 24000/26100/27500 bullish for medium term)

CRUDE

continue to view, good resist at 4260, as long hold 1nce again down rally expected. for the day buy only abv 4260 S/L 4240 and T/p 4285-90/4315/4335/ sustain abv 4335 uprally sharp OR sell below 4190 S/L 4205 and T/p 4175-50/ 4115-20/down rally (now crude need to close above 4260-4315/4460-85 for bullish rally while close below 4115/ 3985-3960/3830/3585/3415-3390 bearish for medium term)

COPPER


book profit on buy abv 345.5, for the day buy only abv 348 S/L 347 and T/p 350.5 -351/354 anytime close abv 354 test 365-368 atleast in coming days OR buy ard 340-340.2 S/L 339.5 and T/p 343-345, only sustain below 339 some down side again (upside strong rally only on close above 354 while close below 327/ 310.5-303/281/267.5/254.5/235 bearish for medium term)

MCXARUN
9994500540

long view

GOLD
LIKELY TO TEST 11300 UPTO 11150-200 IN COMING DAYS WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 11400, WHILE CLOSE ABV 12175-12400 UPTREND AGAIN(JUNE)

SILVER
LIKELY TO TEST 20800 UPTO 20400 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 21325, WHILE CLOSE ABV 23425 & 24000 UPTREND AGAIN(MAY)

ALUMINUM
LIKELY TO TEST 109 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 113, WHILE CLOSE ABOVE 121 UPTREND AGAIN


ZINC
LIKELY TO TEST 102-103 UPTO 107 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 98, WHILE CLOSE BELOW 91.5-90 TEST 87-85 ATLEAST(APRIL)


COPPER
LIKELY TO TEST 359-60 UPTO 365 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 345.5/347 & 354, ONLY CLOSE BELOW 327/310 AGAIN TEST 300-295 ATLEAST IN COMING DAYS
(APRIL)

MCXARUN
9994500540

comex gold intraday

Gold prices edged up on Friday as the Dollar continued weak and oil prices recovered to settle above $106 a barrel.



International spot gold traded in the range $899.20 - $914.40 and last quoted at $912.90.



The dollar descended further against the Euro on Friday, extending the losing streak, as downbeat employment data from the US dampened the sentiments of investors on the greenback.



Non-farm payrolls fell by an estimated 80,000 in March, according to the latest release from US Labor Department on Friday.



Also, the unemployment rate in the US rose to 5.1% in March, the highest since September 2005.



Earlier, data from the US Labor Department on Thursday had shown initial claims for unemployment benefits rose by 38,000 to 407,000 in the week ended March 29, their highest level since September 2005. The four-week average of initial claims rose by 15,750 to 374,500.



Continuing jobless claims also recorded a rise, by 97,000 to 2.94 million; the four-week average of continuing claims increased by 32,250 to 2.86 million.



Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, in testimony to Congress, had said that the outlook for US economic growth had worsened since January and the possibility of a recession could not be ruled out.

The Institute for Supply Management reported that its March non-manufacturing composite index moved to a reading of 49.6 from 49.3 in February and 44.6 in January.

Medium term outlook (Spot Gold)

Bullish above $916; Resistances are $926, $932, $947, $954, $973, $984, $995, $1002, $1022, $1035, $1052; supports $896, $883. Further up-trend is expected above $954.60.



Last day DGCX Gold June traded in the range $904.00 – $918.70 and closed at $918.00 ($909.00).


DGCX Gold June


TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)

GOLD (June) - Bullish above $ 917; bearish below $ 912

MCXARUN
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bullion MCX charts

click pics to large view







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Energy intraday

Major Headline:

- Oil jumped as investors poured money back into commodities on expectations of an interest rate cut in the United States and in hope that raw materials will provide them with a useful hedge against wider market weakness.

- Such weakness was confirmed earlier today in poor U.S. data, which reignited fears of a recession and sparked talk of another interest rate cut.

- Data out earlier from the Labor Department showed the U.S. economy has shed jobs for three consecutive months, losing 80,000 non-farm jobs in March, compared to an expected 50,000 job-loss forecast by analysts.

- The data also showed unemployment rose to its highest level in two and a half years the same month.

- Oil prices have not headed lower in response, as players choose to set aside for now longer-term fears that oil demand will decline as US economic growth withers.

- According to data released Wednesday by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, demand for crude oil products fell an annual 1.3 percent over the last four weeks, while crude stocks surged 7.4 million barrels last week.

- On the other hand, however, the data also showed gasoline stocks declined by a much larger than expected 4.5 million barrels last week. Traders chose to focus on this figure rather than on falling demand or rising crude stocks.

- As a result, oil prices rose sharply on Wednesday, but have since retraced some of those gains.

MCX Crude Oil April

Technical Outlook:Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 21-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil April: Buy at 4180-60 Target 4255 and 4285 Stop loss 4145

MCX Natural gas April

Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations- MCX Natural Gas April: Sell at 380 Target 370 and 363 Stop loss 385.50

MCXARUN
9994500540

basemetals intraday

Major US Economic Data

- The U.S. Labor Department said that the unemployment rate jumped from 4.8% to 5.1% in March, the highest in over two years with a loss of 80,000 in non-farm payrolls, weaker than expected. The March eurodollars are trading higher.

- The Labor Department also revised January's non-farm payrolls from -22,000 to -76,000 jobs. February was revised from -63,000 to -76,000. The June U.S. T-bonds are trading higher

Major Headline:



- Copper gained for a third day in New York on speculation that a slumping dollar will boost demand for commodities as a hedge against inflation.

- Shanghai copper stockpiles rose 4.7 percent to 58,195 metric tons, the Shanghai Futures Exchange said in a report after the market closed yesterday. Copper inventories in London Metal Exchange warehouses climbed to 112,575 tons yesterday.

- Production of copper will probably increase 5.7 percent in 2009 to 20.287 million tons, while consumption will probably rise 4.7 percent to 20.078 million tons, according to the Lehman report. This year, production is expected to gain 5.5 percent to 19.187 million tons, while consumption rises 5.6 percent to 19.181 million tons.

- Lead production will rise 6.2 percent next year to 9.242 million tons as consumption rises 3.9 percent to 9.075 million tons, he said in the report.

- Production of nickel will probably rise 8.2 percent to 1.653 million tons, while demand increases 5.9 percent to 1.642 million tons, according to the Lehman report. Zinc output may gain 6.6 percent to 13.564 million tons as demand increases 4.5 percent to 12.932 million tons, Widmer wrote.

- The dollar fell against a basket of six major currencies after a government report showed the U.S. lost jobs for a third month in March, increasing concern that the economy is in a recession. Before today, copper had jumped 28 percent this year as a plunging dollar increased the appeal of raw materials as a store of value.

- U.S. employers cut 80,000 jobs in March, the Labor Department said today. Economists had forecast a loss of 50,000,the median of 79 surveyed by Bloomberg News. While the U.S. employment data point to weakening copper demand, this was overshadowed by the sliding dollar, Gross said.

- The U.S. Dollar Index, the basket of six major currencies including the yen and euro, dropped 0.4 percent after the Labor Department report. The report showed that the U.S. unemployment rate rose to 5.1 percent last month from 4.8 percent in February, the highest since September 2005.

- Aluminum price forecasts for 2008 have been raised by Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., Standard Bank Group Ltd., Deutsche Bank AG, Standard Chartered Plc and UBS AG since late last month. Supply of the metal used in beverage cans and cars may be curtailed following energy shortages in China and South Africa that have fueled increased production costs.

- South Korea's Public Procurement Service, a state-run body that manages strategic commodities, issued a tender to buy 6,000 metric tons of aluminum ingots due for shipment by June 30.

- Suppliers are to submit offers by 2 p.m. Seoul time on April 16 for the high-grade primary aluminum from Russia, China, Egypt or India, according to the procurement agency's Web site. The metal will be purchased at premiums over the London Metal Exchange official cash settlement prices.

MCX Copper April

Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations - MCX Copper April: Buy at 343 Target 349 and 352 Stop loss at 339.50

MCX Zinc April

Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations - MCX Zinc April: Buy at 93.50 Target 96 and 97.50 Stop loss at 92.80

are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.


MCX Nickel April

Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's
short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations: MCX Nickel April: Sell at 1190 Target 1155 and 1135 Stop loss at 1218


MCX Lead April

Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations: MCX Lead April: Buy at 117.50 Target 120 and 122 Stop loss at 116.10

MCXARUN
9994500540

Technicals – MCX (Intra day calls)

CRUDE OIL (April) BULLISH ABOVE 4257 BEARISH BELOW 4237

GOLD (June) BULLISH ABOVE 11861 BEARISH BELOW 11818

SILVER (May) BULLISH ABOVE 23284 BEARISH BELOW 23179

COPPER (APRIL) BULLISH ABOVE 349.2 BEARISH BELOW 348.1

LEAD (April) BULLISH ABOVE 120.95 BEARISH BELOW 120.30

NICKEL (April) BULLISH ABOVE 1175 BEARISH BELOW 1167

ZINC (April) BULLISH ABOVE 94.6 BEARISH BELOW 94.05

MCXARUN
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GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS

Expectations of a half a percentage interest rate hike has increased after last week’s March payroll numbers which will support metals and energy prices at lower levels. The US dollar will trade with a softer bias unless the European central bank says that it will cut interest rates. Copper continues to rise with LME copper heading for $9000 as long as $8500 holds. Copper is the driver for base metals. Copper’s rise/fall directly affects other base metals. Nickel (LME) needs to break $31000 for another attempt at $37000 in the short term. Base metals will be volatile for the rest of April caught between global growth factors and liquidity factors. However we do not expect any major slide in base metals till the Olympics unless equity markets have a sustained medium term bull run.

The Indian rupee is caught between inflation and volatile stock markets. Inflation reached seven percent for the week ended March 22. The government will try and let the rupee appreciate to 39.50 and 39.00 to reduce inflation. An interest rate cut by the reserve bank of India in its annual policy meeting this month is out of question. There is speculation of a cash reserve ratio (CRR) hike. Indian rupee’s short term performance will be dependent on foreign portfolio flows. Unless the stock markets rise substantially, short term gains in the rupee will be limited.

It will be a technical trade in all metals and energies this week.

COPPER -- MAY FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $392.0

Copper targets $403.80 and $416.90 as long as $388 holds. Copper has to fall below $388 for $372.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $104.10

Crude oil has to break $110-$112 this week else a fall to $99 and $96.

MCXARUN
9994500540