basemetals intraday

Major US Economic Data

- The U.S. Labor Department said that the unemployment rate jumped from 4.8% to 5.1% in March, the highest in over two years with a loss of 80,000 in non-farm payrolls, weaker than expected. The March eurodollars are trading higher.

- The Labor Department also revised January's non-farm payrolls from -22,000 to -76,000 jobs. February was revised from -63,000 to -76,000. The June U.S. T-bonds are trading higher

Major Headline:



- Copper gained for a third day in New York on speculation that a slumping dollar will boost demand for commodities as a hedge against inflation.

- Shanghai copper stockpiles rose 4.7 percent to 58,195 metric tons, the Shanghai Futures Exchange said in a report after the market closed yesterday. Copper inventories in London Metal Exchange warehouses climbed to 112,575 tons yesterday.

- Production of copper will probably increase 5.7 percent in 2009 to 20.287 million tons, while consumption will probably rise 4.7 percent to 20.078 million tons, according to the Lehman report. This year, production is expected to gain 5.5 percent to 19.187 million tons, while consumption rises 5.6 percent to 19.181 million tons.

- Lead production will rise 6.2 percent next year to 9.242 million tons as consumption rises 3.9 percent to 9.075 million tons, he said in the report.

- Production of nickel will probably rise 8.2 percent to 1.653 million tons, while demand increases 5.9 percent to 1.642 million tons, according to the Lehman report. Zinc output may gain 6.6 percent to 13.564 million tons as demand increases 4.5 percent to 12.932 million tons, Widmer wrote.

- The dollar fell against a basket of six major currencies after a government report showed the U.S. lost jobs for a third month in March, increasing concern that the economy is in a recession. Before today, copper had jumped 28 percent this year as a plunging dollar increased the appeal of raw materials as a store of value.

- U.S. employers cut 80,000 jobs in March, the Labor Department said today. Economists had forecast a loss of 50,000,the median of 79 surveyed by Bloomberg News. While the U.S. employment data point to weakening copper demand, this was overshadowed by the sliding dollar, Gross said.

- The U.S. Dollar Index, the basket of six major currencies including the yen and euro, dropped 0.4 percent after the Labor Department report. The report showed that the U.S. unemployment rate rose to 5.1 percent last month from 4.8 percent in February, the highest since September 2005.

- Aluminum price forecasts for 2008 have been raised by Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., Standard Bank Group Ltd., Deutsche Bank AG, Standard Chartered Plc and UBS AG since late last month. Supply of the metal used in beverage cans and cars may be curtailed following energy shortages in China and South Africa that have fueled increased production costs.

- South Korea's Public Procurement Service, a state-run body that manages strategic commodities, issued a tender to buy 6,000 metric tons of aluminum ingots due for shipment by June 30.

- Suppliers are to submit offers by 2 p.m. Seoul time on April 16 for the high-grade primary aluminum from Russia, China, Egypt or India, according to the procurement agency's Web site. The metal will be purchased at premiums over the London Metal Exchange official cash settlement prices.

MCX Copper April

Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations - MCX Copper April: Buy at 343 Target 349 and 352 Stop loss at 339.50

MCX Zinc April

Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations - MCX Zinc April: Buy at 93.50 Target 96 and 97.50 Stop loss at 92.80

are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.


MCX Nickel April

Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's
short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations: MCX Nickel April: Sell at 1190 Target 1155 and 1135 Stop loss at 1218


MCX Lead April

Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations: MCX Lead April: Buy at 117.50 Target 120 and 122 Stop loss at 116.10

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