safetrade calls

GOLD

we book profit on buy abv 11730-780/ 11930, for the day buy only abv 12025 S/L 12000 and T/p 12075 upto 12160 OR sell below 11810-790 S/L 11835 and T/p 11700-720/11650/upto 11575 (any time close above 12175/12400/13100/ 13425 bullish while close below 11650/ 11375/11000 bearish for medium term)

SILVER

for the day buy only abv 23600 S/L 23525 and T/p 23700 upto 23850 OR sell below 23000 & more below 22950 S/L 23100 and T/p 22850-800/22625 upto 22525 (any time close below 22950/22050/21325-250/20150/19390/ 18600-250/17850 bearish rally while close above 23600/24000/26100/27500 bullish for medium term)

CRUDE

book profit on buy abv 4260, for the day buy only abv 4370 S/L 4350 and T/p 4400-10/4450-60/sustain abv 4460 seen new uprally OR buy ard 4265-70 S/L 4260 and T/p 4290-4320 (now crude need to close above 4365/4460-85 for bullish rally while close below 4225/ 4115/3985-3960/3830/3585/3415-3390 bearish for medium term)

COPPER

book profit on buy abv 345.5/348, for the day buy only abv 351 S/L 349 and T/p 353.5-354/close abv 354 test 365-368 atleast in coming days OR sell below 344 S/L 345.5 and T/p 342.5/340, sustain below 339 test 330-332 atleast in coming days (upside strong rally only on close above 354 while close below 327/310.5-303/281/267.5/254.5/235 bearish for medium term)

MCXARUN
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longview

COPPER

LIKELY TO TEST 359-60/365 UPTO 368-70 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 354, ONLY CLOSE BELOW 327/310 AGAIN TEST 300-295 ATLEAST IN COMING DAYS(APRIL)

SILVER

LIKELY TO TEST 20800 UPTO 20400 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 21325, WHILE CLOSE ABV 23600 & 24000 UPTREND AGAIN(MAY)


MCXARUN
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Comex gold intraday

Gold prices rose yesterday, as oil prices climbed above $109 a barrel, bringing into focus the bullion’s appeal as a hedging tool against inflation.



International spot gold traded in the range $910.60 - $929.10 and last quoted at $920 ($912.90).



The Dollar remained vulnerable against major currencies, whilst gaining marginally against the Euro, pressured by downbeat employment data from the US released last week, which dampened the sentiments of investors on the greenback.



According to the latest release from US Labor Department on Friday, non-farm payrolls fell by an estimated 80,000 in March.



Also, the unemployment rate in the US rose to 5.1% in March, the highest since September 2005.



Earlier, data from the US Labor Department on Thursday had shown initial claims for unemployment benefits rose by 38,000 to 407,000 in the week ended March 29, their highest level since September 2005. The four-week average of initial claims rose by 15,750 to 374,500.



Continuing jobless claims also recorded a rise, by 97,000 to 2.94 million; the four-week average of continuing claims increased by 32,250 to 2.86 million.



Traders and investors would be awaiting the release of FOMC minutes today.



Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, in testimony to Congress, had said that the outlook for US economic growth had worsened since January and the possibility of a recession could not be ruled out.

The Institute for Supply Management reported that its March non-manufacturing composite index moved to a reading of 49.6 from 49.3 in February and 44.6 in January.

Crude oil May in NYMEX rose as high as $109.13 and closed at $108.92, up $2.69.

Oil prices were supported by comments from OPEC Secretary General Abdullah al-Badri on Sunday, which over-ruled an immediate hike in the OPEC oil output. He also played down the chances that OPEC would hold an extraordinary meeting before its next scheduled gathering in September.

Medium term outlook (Spot Gold)

Bullish above $916; Resistances are $926, $932, $947, $954, $973, $984, $995, $1002, $1022, $1035, $1052; supports $896, $883. Further up-trend is expected above $954.60.



Last day DGCX Gold June traded in the range $914.80 – $933.60 and closed at $926.30 ($918.00).


DGCX Gold June

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)

GOLD (June) - Bullish above $ 928; bearish below $ 923

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energy intraday

Major Headline:

- Oil raced above $109, propelled by perpetual dollar weakness, OPEC's defiance to releasing more oil and as cold US spring weather sparked heating demand.

- Gas oil is particularly high, driven in part by its imminent expiry, which is pulling oil prices up. Meanwhile, oil is well underpinned by the ailing US currency and expectations for further weakness which is boosting the appeal of dollar-denominated commodities.

- On the fundamental side, OPEC's secretary general has said there is no need for more oil, disappointing consumers who reckon supply is tight.

- OPEC has resisted calls from consumers to release more oil to ease high prices that are harming the global economy at its last two meetings. Current official output is 29.67 million barrels per day.

- Fund money is plunging back into commodities today, which also lend the sector support. Gold and most base metals were also higher.

- Players remain wary ahead of the release of the minutes to the Federal Open Market Committee on Tuesday.

- Looking ahead, it is a light week for U.S. data so focus may well shift to weekly U.S. inventory statistics due Wednesday as players track stock levels and demand in the world's top consumer as it flirts with recession.

MCX Crude Oil April

Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 21-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil April: Buy at 4295 Target 4390 and 4455 Stop loss 4246

MCX Natural gas April

Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 21-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations- MCX Natural Gas April: Buy at 385 Target 396 and 405 Stop loss at 378

MCXARUN
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Basemetals intraday

Major Headline:



* Copper has soared this year, and was the second-best performing commodity last quarter, as demand jumped from hedge funds and other speculators. Investors are buying the metals to protect against inflation and on speculation gains from commodities will outpace stocks and bonds this year.
* Citigroup boosted its 2008 copper forecast by 15 percent, citing continuing robust demand from China, the world's largest metals user. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. also raised its price projections today. Copper futures in New York surged 30 percent this year before today as demand boomed from investors.



* Peru Government Declared Doe Run Strike `Inadmissible’, and Copper output in Chile, the world's biggest producer of the metal, will rise 5.5 percent this year, a mining group said and output will climb to 5.9 million metric tons in 2008,



* Codelco's output slid for a third year in 2007, dropping 6.6 percent to 1.67 million metric tons. Output this year will be similar to last year's total, Arellano said. Output will rise in 2009 to about 1.7 million tons, the company's press office said yesterday



* About 300,000 tons of planned copper mine production has been lost so far this year, according to Macquarie Group Ltd. There has undoubtedly been a fund element to the strength in prices, however, it is also true that the supply and demand fundamentals for copper have so far proven to be much stronger than expected in 2008 on account of supply losses at the mine level and at Chinese smelters and refineries.



* Copper rose in Asia to less than $100 shy of its record, as investors expected the Federal Reserve to lower borrowing costs this month, weakening the dollar and increasing the appeal of commodities as a haven.



* The London Metal Exchange, the world's largest copper marketplace, said floor-trading volumes fell to the lowest in at least four months, outpaced by electronic transactions. Open outcry on the floor accounted for 27.8 percent of volume in March, compared with a 41 percent for the bourse's Select trading system, the LME said in a statement on its Web site yesterday.



* Aluminium, copper, nickel and lead will trade higher than previously forecast this year because of Demand for infrastructure in China, the world's biggest consumer of metals and china's drive to expand infrastructure will continue beyond this year's Olympics in Beijing in August. The rail network is scheduled to double by 2020 and seaport capacity to rise 280 percent by the same year, Citigroup said.



* Tin exports from Indonesia, the world's second-largest producer of the metal, rose by 16 percent in March from February, trade ministry data showed. The nation exported 8,606.27 metric tons worth $157.53 million last month, compared with 7,431.3 tons worth $118.4 million in February



* Nickel for delivery in three months in London. It fell 21 percent last year, the biggest decline among metals on the exchange, as stainless-steel makers cut output by 2.9 percent on weaker demand and record nickel prices in the first half, according to the International Stainless Steel Forum. Stainless steel containing nickel accounted for 51 percent of fourth-quarter output, down from 80 percent a few years ago, the Brussels-based International Stainless Steel Forum said April 4.

MCX Copper April

Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations - MCX Copper April: Buy at 343 Target 349 and 352 Stop loss at 339.50

MCX Zinc April

Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive. Recommendations - MCX Zinc April: Buy at 93.50 Target 96 and 97.50 Stop loss at 92.80MCX Zinc April: Buy at 93.50 Target 96 and 97.50 Stop loss at 92.80 are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

MCX Zinc April: Buy at 93.50 Target 96 and 97.50 Stop loss at 92.80

MCX Nickel April

Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations: MCX Nickel April: Sell at 1190 Target 1155 and 1135 Stop loss at 1218

MCX Lead April

Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations: MCX Lead April: Buy at 118.70 target 117.10 and 115.80 stoploss at 119.90

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bullion intraday

Major Headline:

* Gold and silver rose by the most in more than a week as higher energy and food costs boosted the Appeal of precious metals as a hedge against inflation. the IMF holds 103.4 million ounces of gold, trailing only the U.S. and Germany, according to the World Gold Council.



* Gold rose in yesterday on signs the U.S. economy is still weakening, buoying demand for alternative Investments including precious metals. The Labour Department in Washington said April 4 that the U.S. lost jobs for a third consecutive month in March and the unemployment rate rose to the highest since September 2005, pointing to an economy that may already be in a recession.
* AngloGold Ashanti Ltd., Africa's biggest gold producer, on April 4 increased its first-quarter output forecast by 8 percent after power supply in South Africa stabilized. First-quarter production is forecast at about 1.19 million ounces, the Johannesburg-based company said.
* Hedge-fund managers and other large speculators decreased their net-long position in New York gold futures in the week ended April 1, according to U.S. CFTC Data, Speculative long positions, or bets prices will rise, out numbered short positions by 161,278 contracts on Comex. Net-long positions fell by 14,464 contracts, or 8 percent, from a week earlier.
* South Africa's central bank cut foreign currency purchases last month to avoid further weakening the rand, which fell 4 percent against the dollar. Gross gold and foreign currency reserves increased 0.6 percent to $34.4 billion at the end of March, after gaining 1.8 percent in the previous month, the Pretoria-based Reserve Bank said on its Web site today. Net reserves climbed to $33.1 billion from $32.7 billion.

· Switzerland's central bank sold an estimated 11 metric tons (353,658 ounces) of gold last month, little changed from February, based on figures from the Swiss Federal Statistical Office. Swiss bullion holdings fell to 33.27 billion Swiss francs ($32.8 billion) in March, from 34.22 billion francs a month earlier, according to a report yesterday on the Web site of statistical office in Neuchatel.



US Economy:

- There is talk that private investors are about to invest $5 billion in Washington Mutual, the largest savings and loan in the U.S. The June S&P 500 is steady to higher, helped by a perception that the financial industry may be slowly emerging from its problems.

Currency Update:

- Canadian municipalities issued C$5.8 billion of building permits in February, down 1.0% from January's pace. The June Canadian dollar is steady to lower.

- Japan's Cabinet Office said that its index of leading indicators increased from 36.4% to 50% in February, the best in seven months. The June yen is trading lower.

- The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said that it expects real GDP in Japan to increase 1.6% in 2008 and 1.8% in 2009.

MCX Gold June

Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations – MCX Gold June: Buy at 11870 Target 11940 and 12030 Stop loss at1182

MCX Silver May

Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations -MCX Silver May: Buy at 23290 Target 23480 and 23620 Stop loss at23160

Stoploss must from afternoon market may down

MCXARUN
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Technicals – MCX (Intra day calls)

CRUDE OIL (April) BULLISH ABOVE 4330 BEARISH BELOW 4311

GOLD (June) BULLISH ABOVE 11946 BEARISH BELOW 11906

SILVER (May) BULLISH ABOVE 23420 BEARISH BELOW 23325

COPPER (APRIL) BULLISH ABOVE 348.40 BEARISH BELOW 347.30

LEAD (April) BULLISH ABOVE 118.90 BEARISH BELOW 118.25

NICKEL (April) BULLISH ABOVE 1158 BEARISH BELOW 1152

ZINC (April) BULLISH ABOVE 95.40 BEARISH BELOW 95.20

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GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS

Dubai Multi Commodities Centre plans to start a venture with the World Gold Council to trade the first Islamic securities backed by gold bullion. Through a joint venture called Dubai Gold Investments, the partners plan to create Dubai Gold Shares and list them on the Dubai International Financial Exchange Ltd. Dubai Gold Shares will comply with Islamic Shariah law. The shares will allow holders to gain from advances in the price of gold without having to insure, store and move the metal. Each Dubai Gold Share will represent 0.1 ounce of gold held in custody by the center and HSBC Holdings Plc. This will ensure the securities comply with Islamic principles. After gold related investment instrument similar to exchange traded funds. Very positive news for gold. This could lead to scarcity of gold in the markets. Investment in this instrument will near the total investment in exchange traded funds. Followers of Islam in India would love to have a similar gold investment instrument in India.

IMF gold sales once again are in the headlines. The IMF plan to cut 380 jobs and sell 403.3 tonnes of gold, about an eighth of its reserves, still has to be approved by other authorities. The reforms have the support of the US Treasury, but the gold sales must be approved by Congress, which is unlikely to happen until after the presidential elections this year. IMF gold sales will not have any impact on gold prices as demand is huge to absorb sales.

COPPER -- MAY FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $392.0

Copper targets $403.80 and $416.90 as long as $388 holds. Copper has to fall below $388 for $372.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $110.70

Crude oil targets $112.10 and $119.80 on a break of $110.60. Falls below $105.90 then $100.0. One needs to be cautious going long at higher prices.

INDIAN RUPEE (USD/INR)

The Indian rupee has been trading in 39.80-40.05 against the US dollar over the past few days. The government will allow the rupee to appreciate to control inflation. However the pace of appreciation will not be the same as 2007. A rising rupee has already closed some of the labour intensive units in handicrafts, garments and other sectors. If the rupee appreciates in the big way in 2008, there will be more job losses in the Indian export sector. For the day the rupee will trade in a 39.85-40.08 range.

MCXARUN
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