Gold prices drifted lower yesterday, amid modest gain in the dollar, affected by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) proposal to sell 403.3 metric tons of gold from its reserves, which is currently valued at more than $13 billion.
International spot gold traded in the range $925.50 - $907.90 and last quoted at $915.00 ($920.00).
The Dollar remained vulnerable against major currencies, whilst gaining marginally against the Euro. The pressure on the greenback persisted after the release of latest Housing and Employment data from the US.
Also, minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee meeting held in March gave a downbeat assessment of the US economy, leaving the possibility of further cuts in US interest rates intact. The minutes also showed that many board members believed a recession in the first half of 2008 was likely amid declining economic growth and financial market stress.
The National Association of Realtors’ (NAR) pending home sales index for February fell 1.9 percent to 84.6 from 86.2 in the previous month.
According to the release from US Labor Department on Friday, non-farm payrolls fell by an estimated 80,000 in March.
Also, the unemployment rate in the US rose to 5.1% in March, the highest since September 2005.
Earlier, data from the US Labor Department last week had shown initial claims for unemployment benefits rose by 38,000 to 407,000 in the week ended March 29, their highest level since September 2005. The four-week average of initial claims rose by 15,750 to 374,500.
Continuing jobless claims also recorded a rise, by 97,000 to 2.94 million; the four-week average of continuing claims increased by 32,250 to 2.86 million.
The market is awaiting interest rate decisions by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, both due on Thursday. While the ECB is widely expected to again leave its key interest rate on hold at 4%, the BoE is likely to lower its benchmark rate by another quarter of a percent from 5.25 percent.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, in testimony to Congress, had said that the outlook for US economic growth had worsened since January and the possibility of a recession could not be ruled out.
The Institute for Supply Management reported that its March non-manufacturing composite index moved to a reading of 49.6 from 49.3 in February and 44.6 in January.
Crude oil May in NYMEX closed $0.33 lower at $108.76, after trading in the range $109.64 - $107.64.
OPEC Secretary General Abdullah al-Badri on Sunday over-ruled an immediate hike in the OPEC oil output. He also played down the chances that OPEC would hold an extraordinary meeting before its next scheduled gathering in September.
Medium term outlook (Spot Gold)
Weak below $952; supports are $928, $908, $888; resistances $969, $990.
Last day DGCX Gold June traded in the range $929.00 – $912.00 and closed at $918.70 ($926.30).
DGCX Gold June
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (June) - Bullish above $ 922.00; bearish below $ 917.00
MCXARUN
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Wednesday, April 9, 2008
SAFE TRADE CALLS
GOLD
for the day sell only below 11760 S/L 11785 and T/p 11700-720/650 upto 11575 OR buy only abv 11975 S/L 11955 and T/p 12015-25/12075 upto 12160 (any time close above 12175/ 12400/13100/13425 bullish while close below 11650/11375/11000 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
book profit on sell below 23000-22950, for the day sell below 22750 S/L 22825 and T/p 22625-650/22525/22450 OR buy only abv 23425 S/L 22350 and T/p 23500-600/700 upto 23850 (any time close below 22625/22050/21325-250/ 20150/19390/18600-250/17850 bearish rally while close above 23600/24000/ 26100/27500 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
for the day buy only abv 4380 S/L 4360 and T/p 4400-10/4450-60/sustain abv seen new uprally OR sell only below 4290 S/L 4310 and T/p 4260-70/4220-35/upto 4180 (now crude need to close above 4375/4460-85 for bullish rally while close below 4225/4115/3985-3960/3830/3585/3415-3390 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
book profit on sell below 344, for the day sell only below 339.5 S/L 341 and T/p 337.5-337/334/ upto 332-330 in coming days OR buy abv 345 S/L 343.5 and T/p 347-48/351/353.5-354/close abv 354 test 365-368 atleast in coming days(upside strong rally only on close above 354 while close below 327/310.5-303/ 281/267.5/254.5/235 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
for the day sell only below 11760 S/L 11785 and T/p 11700-720/650 upto 11575 OR buy only abv 11975 S/L 11955 and T/p 12015-25/12075 upto 12160 (any time close above 12175/ 12400/13100/13425 bullish while close below 11650/11375/11000 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
book profit on sell below 23000-22950, for the day sell below 22750 S/L 22825 and T/p 22625-650/22525/22450 OR buy only abv 23425 S/L 22350 and T/p 23500-600/700 upto 23850 (any time close below 22625/22050/21325-250/ 20150/19390/18600-250/17850 bearish rally while close above 23600/24000/ 26100/27500 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
for the day buy only abv 4380 S/L 4360 and T/p 4400-10/4450-60/sustain abv seen new uprally OR sell only below 4290 S/L 4310 and T/p 4260-70/4220-35/upto 4180 (now crude need to close above 4375/4460-85 for bullish rally while close below 4225/4115/3985-3960/3830/3585/3415-3390 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
book profit on sell below 344, for the day sell only below 339.5 S/L 341 and T/p 337.5-337/334/ upto 332-330 in coming days OR buy abv 345 S/L 343.5 and T/p 347-48/351/353.5-354/close abv 354 test 365-368 atleast in coming days(upside strong rally only on close above 354 while close below 327/310.5-303/ 281/267.5/254.5/235 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
LONG VIEW ENERGY
CRUDE OIL
LIKELY TO TEST 3870 UPTO 3800 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 3960, ONLY CLOSE ABOVE 4375 SOME UPTREND AGAIN(APRIL)
MCXARUN
9994500540
LIKELY TO TEST 3870 UPTO 3800 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 3960, ONLY CLOSE ABOVE 4375 SOME UPTREND AGAIN(APRIL)
MCXARUN
9994500540
outlook
June gold closed lower on Tuesday and below the 10-day moving average crossing at 922.10. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 947.20 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off March's high, the 50% retracement level crossing at 854.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 933.70. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level crossing at 946.60. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 876.30. Second support is the 50% retracement level crossing at 854.30.
May silver closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the rally off last week's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 18.429 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews this spring's decline, the 62% retracement level crossing at 15.438 is the next downside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 18.130 then the 20-day moving average crossing at 18.429. First support is today's low crossing at 17.440 then the 50% retracement level crossing at 16.585.
May copper closed sharply lower due to profit taking on Tuesday as it consolidated some of last week's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 379.37 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off March's low, March's high crossing at 402.40 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 400.00. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 402.40. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 386.59. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 379.37.
May crude oil closed slightly lower on Tuesday as it consolidates above the previous reaction high crossing at 108.22. The mid-
range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends this week's rally, March's high crossing at 110.35 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing 105.44 would signal that a double top with March's high has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 109.64. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 110.35. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 105.45. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 105.38.
May Henry natural gas closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidates some of Monday's rally but remains above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.668. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends Monday's rally, the reaction high crossing at 10.210 is the next upside target. Closes below last Friday's low crossing at 9.290 would open the door for a possible test of March's low crossing at 8.750. First resistance is today's high crossing at 9.938 then last Monday's high crossing at 10.210. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 9.29. Second support is the 38% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 9.117.
MCXARUN
9994500540
May silver closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the rally off last week's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 18.429 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews this spring's decline, the 62% retracement level crossing at 15.438 is the next downside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 18.130 then the 20-day moving average crossing at 18.429. First support is today's low crossing at 17.440 then the 50% retracement level crossing at 16.585.
May copper closed sharply lower due to profit taking on Tuesday as it consolidated some of last week's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 379.37 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off March's low, March's high crossing at 402.40 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 400.00. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 402.40. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 386.59. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 379.37.
May crude oil closed slightly lower on Tuesday as it consolidates above the previous reaction high crossing at 108.22. The mid-
range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends this week's rally, March's high crossing at 110.35 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing 105.44 would signal that a double top with March's high has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 109.64. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 110.35. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 105.45. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 105.38.
May Henry natural gas closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidates some of Monday's rally but remains above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.668. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends Monday's rally, the reaction high crossing at 10.210 is the next upside target. Closes below last Friday's low crossing at 9.290 would open the door for a possible test of March's low crossing at 8.750. First resistance is today's high crossing at 9.938 then last Monday's high crossing at 10.210. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 9.29. Second support is the 38% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 9.117.
MCXARUN
9994500540
energy intraday
Major Headline:
* Oil prices may remain between $80 and $110 this year due to weakness in the U.S. currency and prices fell from a three-week high on concern that the U.S. economic slowdown and eexpected weekly U.S. inventory data due out on Wednesday forecast crude stocks rose 2.2 million barrels in the week to April 4.
· Oil prices have rallied beyond $100 a barrel this year as global oil demand continues apace, notwithstanding concern about an economic slowdown in the U.S., the biggest oil-consuming nation. Producing nations are demanding a greater share of the oil wealth, limiting the ability of international companies such as Exxon Mobil Corp. to expand production.
* Kazakhstan's oil pipeline monopoly sent Russian crude through its Atasu-Alashankou link for the first time last quarter, boosting shipments to China, the world's second-biggest energy user. Kazakhstan's oil exports through the pipeline to China rose 202,000 tons to 1.306 million tons in the first quarter from a year earlier
· High oil prices are ``with us to stay'' because of a falling U.S. dollar rather than any supply issues, OPEC President Chakib Khelil said yesterday, The OPEC holds its next formal, policy-setting conference in September and there has been no request for a formal meeting before then, Many OPEC ministers will hold informal discussions during a conference April 20 to April 22 in Rome.
· Bahrain Petroleum Co. will shut a 100,000-barrel-a-day crude unit at its refinery in the fourth quarter for maintenance, The unit at the 260,000-barrel-a-day plant will be halted for five to six weeks
* ONGC Videsh Ltd., the overseas arm of India's Oil & Natural Gas Corp., will create a joint venture with Venezuela's state oil company today to pump 232 million barrels of crude over 25 years
* Indian Energy Minister Murli Deora is in Caracas to sign the joint venture agreement. India, the fastest-growing economy after China, estimates oil demand will rise 62 percent over the next five years to 241 million tons a year, or 4.8 million barrels a day.Cairn Energy Plc, the U.K. explorer operating on six continents, reiterated plans to start oil production from India in the second half of 2009.
· Natural gas futures advanced in NY as cool weather may slow the rebuilding of supplies. Below-normal temperatures are probable for most of next week in the Northeast and Midwest, the U.S. Climate Prediction Center in Camp Springs Cold weather is now expected to descend over the main heating-demand locations of the eastern half of the country later this week'' and into next week, lifting prices
MCX Crude Oil April
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed down which is a Bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil April: Sell at 4405 Target 4360 and 4310 Stop loss 4445
MCX Natural gas April
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics
Recommendations- MCX Natural Gas April: Sell at 394 Target 387 and 383 Stop lossat399
MCXARUN
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* Oil prices may remain between $80 and $110 this year due to weakness in the U.S. currency and prices fell from a three-week high on concern that the U.S. economic slowdown and eexpected weekly U.S. inventory data due out on Wednesday forecast crude stocks rose 2.2 million barrels in the week to April 4.
· Oil prices have rallied beyond $100 a barrel this year as global oil demand continues apace, notwithstanding concern about an economic slowdown in the U.S., the biggest oil-consuming nation. Producing nations are demanding a greater share of the oil wealth, limiting the ability of international companies such as Exxon Mobil Corp. to expand production.
* Kazakhstan's oil pipeline monopoly sent Russian crude through its Atasu-Alashankou link for the first time last quarter, boosting shipments to China, the world's second-biggest energy user. Kazakhstan's oil exports through the pipeline to China rose 202,000 tons to 1.306 million tons in the first quarter from a year earlier
· High oil prices are ``with us to stay'' because of a falling U.S. dollar rather than any supply issues, OPEC President Chakib Khelil said yesterday, The OPEC holds its next formal, policy-setting conference in September and there has been no request for a formal meeting before then, Many OPEC ministers will hold informal discussions during a conference April 20 to April 22 in Rome.
· Bahrain Petroleum Co. will shut a 100,000-barrel-a-day crude unit at its refinery in the fourth quarter for maintenance, The unit at the 260,000-barrel-a-day plant will be halted for five to six weeks
* ONGC Videsh Ltd., the overseas arm of India's Oil & Natural Gas Corp., will create a joint venture with Venezuela's state oil company today to pump 232 million barrels of crude over 25 years
* Indian Energy Minister Murli Deora is in Caracas to sign the joint venture agreement. India, the fastest-growing economy after China, estimates oil demand will rise 62 percent over the next five years to 241 million tons a year, or 4.8 million barrels a day.Cairn Energy Plc, the U.K. explorer operating on six continents, reiterated plans to start oil production from India in the second half of 2009.
· Natural gas futures advanced in NY as cool weather may slow the rebuilding of supplies. Below-normal temperatures are probable for most of next week in the Northeast and Midwest, the U.S. Climate Prediction Center in Camp Springs Cold weather is now expected to descend over the main heating-demand locations of the eastern half of the country later this week'' and into next week, lifting prices
MCX Crude Oil April
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed down which is a Bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil April: Sell at 4405 Target 4360 and 4310 Stop loss 4445
MCX Natural gas April
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics
Recommendations- MCX Natural Gas April: Sell at 394 Target 387 and 383 Stop lossat399
MCXARUN
9994500540
Technicals – MCX (Intra day calls)
CRUDE OIL (April) BULLISH ABOVE 4383 BEARISH BELOW 4363
GOLD (June) BULLISH ABOVE 11855 BEARISH BELOW 11812
SILVER (May) BULLISH ABOVE 23074 BEARISH BELOW 22969
COPPER (APRIL) BULLISH ABOVE 343.20 BEARISH BELOW 342.10
LEAD (April) BULLISH ABOVE 117.25 BEARISH BELOW 116.65
NICKEL (April) BULLISH ABOVE 1159.5 BEARISH BELOW 1151
ZINC (April) BULLISH ABOVE 93.25 BEARISH BELOW 92.7
MCXARUN
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GOLD (June) BULLISH ABOVE 11855 BEARISH BELOW 11812
SILVER (May) BULLISH ABOVE 23074 BEARISH BELOW 22969
COPPER (APRIL) BULLISH ABOVE 343.20 BEARISH BELOW 342.10
LEAD (April) BULLISH ABOVE 117.25 BEARISH BELOW 116.65
NICKEL (April) BULLISH ABOVE 1159.5 BEARISH BELOW 1151
ZINC (April) BULLISH ABOVE 93.25 BEARISH BELOW 92.7
MCXARUN
9994500540
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