basemetals intraday

Base Metals April 30, 2008

Major Economic Data:

The Conference Board said that its index of consumer confidence fell from 65.9 to 62.3 in April, better than expected, but also the lowest in five years. The March eurodollars are steady to higher.

The Conference Board said that its index of leading indicators for Australia was down .2% in February, to 184.8. Three of the seven indicators showed positive gains. The June Australian dollar is trading lower.

Copper fell after a strengthening dollar reduced the appeal of commodities as a hedge against inflation. MCX Copper June traded bit low near 342.35 and closed with slight loss following tight movement at LME.

The U.S. currency is headed for the first monthly advance this year against the euro on speculation that the Federal Reserve may signal a pause in rate cuts after six reductions since September. Before today, when it rose as much as 0.7 percent, the dollar fell 6.8 percent against the euro this year, helping to spur a 29 percent gain in copper futures.

Copper warehouse stock at LME, net change was -675 MT to 109650 MT

Codelco, the world's largest copper producer, shut its second-biggest mine because of protests by contract workers, a union leader said. Codelco halted operations after protesters threw stones last night at buses carrying Codelco employees to the El Teniente mine in central Chile, Pablo Reyes, a union leader for Codelco workers, said in a telephone interview. Employees may return to the mine later today, he said.

Chile's peso dropped to its lowest in more than a week as the price of copper, the country's biggest export, fell amid a strengthening dollar.

Copper production in Zambia, Africa's biggest producer of the metal, fell 8.8 percent in the first quarter due to flooding, the central bank said. Output declined to 128,593 metric tons in the three months through March, from 141,077 tons in the previous quarter, the Bank of Zambia said in a statement on its Web site yesterday. Production rose from 114,913 tons in the same period a year earlier, it said.

MCX Copper June - Technical Outlook:

The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 346.7 levels. If market breaches 346.7 may see prices to take further upside towards 349.1 and 351.2, however if it holds back below 342.1 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 340.0 and 337.6

Recommendations-MCX Copper June: Sell at 345.50-346 Target 341 and 338 SL 349

Nickel

MCX Nickel lost almost 1% following movement at LME and weakness in Bullion, Energy and other base metals supported the movement in Nickel.

Nickel warehouse stock at LME, net change was –66 MT to 51708 MT

MCX Nickel May - Technical Outlook:

The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 1153.0 If market breaches below 1153.0 may see prices to take further correction towards 1139.5 and 1125.0, However if it holds back above 1181.0 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 1195.5 and 1209.0

Recommendations: MCX Nickel May: Sell at 1170-75 Target 1155 and 1130 SL 1182


Zinc

MCX Zinc lost almost 1.5% following bearish sentiment at international exchanges, while weak ness in metals and energy also supported the movement, though LME inventory data was much supportive for the prices.

Zinc warehouse stock at LME, net change was –1700 MT to 126850 MT

Cia. Minera Antamina, the world's largest combined copper and zinc mine, said zinc output increased by 7.5 percent in the first quarter, magazine Semana Economica reported.

Antamina produced 77.6 million pounds (35.2 million kilograms) of zinc on rising ore grades, the Lima-based weekly said in its April 27 edition. First-quarter copper production was little changed at 74.1 million pounds, it said.

MCX Zinc May - Technical Outlook:

The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 90.5 If market breaches below 90.5 may see prices to take further correction towards 89.9 and 88.9 However if it holds back above 92.1 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 93.1 and 93.7

Recommendations- MCX Zinc May: Sell at 91.50 Target 89 and 87.50 Stop loss at 92.15

Lead

MCX Lead may remain almost weak for the day, market registered more then 1.5% loss following movement at LME and inventory data pushed market more down.

Lead warehouse stock at LME, net change was 300 MT to 56150 MT

MCX Lead May -Technical outlook:

The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices.. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 110.8 If market breaches below 110.8 may see prices to take further correction towards 109.9 and 109.4, However if it holds back above 112.1 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 112.6 and 113.5

Recommendations –MCX Lead May: Sell at 111.40 Target 109.60 and 108.50 SL 112.30

Aluminium

MCX Aluminium traded in tight range of 118.55 –119.50, movement was less then 1 Rs, thin volume and weakness in other base metals pushed metal down but over movement was in a tight range.

Aluminium warehouse stock at LME, net change was –750 MT to 1042075 MT

National Aluminium Co., India's biggest producer of alumina, said fourth-quarter profit fell 31 percent as a stronger rupee cut the value of overseas sales. Net income fell to 4.09 billion rupees ($101 million) in the three months ended March 31, from 5.91 billion rupees a year earlier.

South Korea's Public Procurement Service, a state-run body that manages strategic commodities, bought 6,000 metric tons of aluminium ingots from LG International Corp. at a tender today The procurement agency bought 3,000 tons of Western high-grade primary aluminum for shipment by June 30 at a premium of $83 a ton over London Metal Exchange official cash settlement prices, according to a notice posted on its Web site. The premium covers the costs for shipping and insurance.

MCX Aluminium May -Technical outlook:

The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 118.7 If market breaches below 118.7 may see prices to take further correction towards 118.1 and 117.7, However if it holds back above119.6 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 120.0 and 120.6

Recommendations–MCX Aluminium May: Sell at 119.20 Target 118 and 117 SL 120.80


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